GOP House in 2010?
The few of us who are fully tuned in to the ebb and flow of partisan politics in a democracy as fickle as America's were pretty much assured last November that when the Democratic Party took ownership of all levels of government, a course correction was likely coming in the 2010 midterms. The true believers in the lefty blogosphere and clueless dime-store pundits in the mainstream media seemed to believe the Democratic tidal wave was going to keep coming for subsequent cycles. Even otherwise sensible political analyst Stu Rothenberg proclaimed early last spring that the Republicans have "no chance of taking back the House".
Suffice it to say Mr. Rothenberg probably wishes he could have those words back right now. The Democrats in Congress have been governing like the fragmented, ill-prepared, and paranoid clowns that they always have when given the lever of power (easily predictable to anybody paying attention) and President Obama has been caught flat-footed far too often himself. As a consequence, the microscopic Republican minority is defining the rules of the game in the late summer of 2009, so it should be no surprise that the American people are starting to take to their message.
The result: lefty statistician Nate Silver, who's been eerily on target with most of his political predictions in the past two years, now projects a 20-50 seat GOP pickup in the U.S. House in November 2010 and gives the Republicans a 25-33% chance of winning back the House. The GOP needs to pick up 40 seats to make it happen, but considering that there are more seats than that won by McCain yet held by Democrats in Congress, it's not at all far-fetched.
Let's start out with the Senate. The Democrats have a 60-40 majority (at least in theory), a majority just about everybody seemed to think they would increase in 2010 given the political map. At this point, most of the same people see the Democrats' best prospect to be holding down their losses. Is there any chance at all the GOP could win 11 seats and win back the Senate? Extremely unlikely, but it's scary how close they could come.
If the Republicans hold potentially competitive seats in Alaska (Lisa Murkowski), Kansas (open seat vacated by Sam Brownback), Kentucky (open seat vacated by Jim Bunning), Louisiana (David Vitter), Missouri (open seat vacated by Kit Bond), New Hampshire (open seat vacated by Judd Gregg), North Carolina (Richard Burr), and Ohio (open seat vacated by George Voinovich), and my guess is they will win all of them, then they've covered their defense and can focus on invading Democratic terrain. And there are PLENTY of very vulnerable targets....
Some of the most vulnerable Democratic-held seats include Colorado (Michael Bennet), Connecticut (Christopher Dodd), Hawaii (only in Dan Inouye retires and creates an open seat), Illinois (if Republican Mark Kirk runs it's very much in play), Nevada (VERY endangered Majority Leader Harry Reid), and Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter). If the GOP wins these, they've already gained six seats.
Beyond that, there are some second-tier targets that could prove imminently vulnerable in another year if the current climate doesn't change. I predicted months ago already that Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas will be defeated next year due to the tectonic rightward shift of her state, even though few seem to consider the Republicans as capable of putting up a strong candidate against her. And while open seats in Delaware, New York, and Massachusetts are all longshots for Republicans, even losing one of them would bode very badly for Democrats. The pickings get slimmer beyond that, but it's not out of the question that a GOP tidal wave and a strong Republican candidate could wipe out Barbara Boxer in California, Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, or possibly even Patty Murray of Washington. I'm betting the Democrats lose a good eight Senate seats next year. Eleven seems just out of reach for the GOP....at least for now.
Now onto the House....
Again, it's scary how easy it would be for the Republicans to locate 40 Democratic-held seats ripe for takeover. Let's start with the low-hanging fruit....freshman Democrats who got in on a fluke in 2008 and are almost certain losers this go-round. There are at least a half-dozen of them, including Bobby Bright (AL-02), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Tom Perriello (VA-05), and Walt Minnick (ID-01). And with Charlie Melancon from LA-03 running for the Senate, it's a near certainty his seat will fall into GOP hands. Barring a horrific opposition candidate, none of these guys will be making a second tour in Washington.
Then there are other targets, mostly freshman on sophomore members elected in the 2006 or 2008 sweeps, that are still top-tier and odds-on for defeat in 2010 if the opposition runs an even marginally competent challenge. A sample of such members includes Harry Teague (NM-02), Eric Massa (NY-29), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Larry Kissell (NC-08), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Alan Grayson (FL-08), Chris Carney (PA-10), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Travis Childers (MS-01), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Steve Dreihaus (OH-01), Parker Griffith (AL-05), and Glenn Nye (VA-02). The majority of these 16 are likely to be defeated, and those are merely the most endangered off the top of my head.
Beyond that, I expect there will a Democratic purging in the South in 2010 that will be far worse even than 2004. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Democrats are actually overrepresented in the South relative to their overall strength in the region. There are all kinds of Southern Democrats in the House in districts where McCain won by double digits, and 2010 is likely to be the year that many of them, even veteran Blue Dogs, are put to sleep. Some top GOP prospects include Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Jim Marshall (GA-08), John Barrow (GA-12), Rick Boucher (VA-09), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23), John Spratt (SC-05), Gene Taylor (MS-04), Heath Shuler (NC-11), and Allen Boyd (FL-02). Not all of these guys are likely to go down, but I'd bet more than half of them do, and perhaps a couple others I didn't mention like Marion Berry (AR-01) and Mike McIntyre (NC-07). And that's just the South. Strong GOP challenges could put other relative rookie Democrats from north of the Mason-Dixon line such as Brad Ellsworth (IN-08), Tim Walz (MN-01), Bill Foster (IL-14), and Jerry McNerney (CA-11) in a world of hurt.
Then there's the vulnerable old guard that could face a Mario Cuomo/Dan Rostenkowski-style early retirement from voters due to mounting indiscretions and/or political weaknesses, and lack of enthusiasm by their base. In other words, 2010 could be the end of John Murtha (PA-12), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), and Leonard Boswell (IA-03).
Clearly my list has yielded well over 40 vulnerable or potentially vulnerable Democratic House members, and there are sure to be some I haven't even touched upon. Even without crunching all the numbers that Nate Silver clearly did to determine his calculation, I am very confident (if that's the word) that the Republicans' demogaugery coupled with the Democrats' incompetence will yield a net of AT LEAST 25 seats for the Republicans next year...and that figure is on the low end.
Suffice it to say Mr. Rothenberg probably wishes he could have those words back right now. The Democrats in Congress have been governing like the fragmented, ill-prepared, and paranoid clowns that they always have when given the lever of power (easily predictable to anybody paying attention) and President Obama has been caught flat-footed far too often himself. As a consequence, the microscopic Republican minority is defining the rules of the game in the late summer of 2009, so it should be no surprise that the American people are starting to take to their message.
The result: lefty statistician Nate Silver, who's been eerily on target with most of his political predictions in the past two years, now projects a 20-50 seat GOP pickup in the U.S. House in November 2010 and gives the Republicans a 25-33% chance of winning back the House. The GOP needs to pick up 40 seats to make it happen, but considering that there are more seats than that won by McCain yet held by Democrats in Congress, it's not at all far-fetched.
Let's start out with the Senate. The Democrats have a 60-40 majority (at least in theory), a majority just about everybody seemed to think they would increase in 2010 given the political map. At this point, most of the same people see the Democrats' best prospect to be holding down their losses. Is there any chance at all the GOP could win 11 seats and win back the Senate? Extremely unlikely, but it's scary how close they could come.
If the Republicans hold potentially competitive seats in Alaska (Lisa Murkowski), Kansas (open seat vacated by Sam Brownback), Kentucky (open seat vacated by Jim Bunning), Louisiana (David Vitter), Missouri (open seat vacated by Kit Bond), New Hampshire (open seat vacated by Judd Gregg), North Carolina (Richard Burr), and Ohio (open seat vacated by George Voinovich), and my guess is they will win all of them, then they've covered their defense and can focus on invading Democratic terrain. And there are PLENTY of very vulnerable targets....
Some of the most vulnerable Democratic-held seats include Colorado (Michael Bennet), Connecticut (Christopher Dodd), Hawaii (only in Dan Inouye retires and creates an open seat), Illinois (if Republican Mark Kirk runs it's very much in play), Nevada (VERY endangered Majority Leader Harry Reid), and Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter). If the GOP wins these, they've already gained six seats.
Beyond that, there are some second-tier targets that could prove imminently vulnerable in another year if the current climate doesn't change. I predicted months ago already that Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas will be defeated next year due to the tectonic rightward shift of her state, even though few seem to consider the Republicans as capable of putting up a strong candidate against her. And while open seats in Delaware, New York, and Massachusetts are all longshots for Republicans, even losing one of them would bode very badly for Democrats. The pickings get slimmer beyond that, but it's not out of the question that a GOP tidal wave and a strong Republican candidate could wipe out Barbara Boxer in California, Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, or possibly even Patty Murray of Washington. I'm betting the Democrats lose a good eight Senate seats next year. Eleven seems just out of reach for the GOP....at least for now.
Now onto the House....
Again, it's scary how easy it would be for the Republicans to locate 40 Democratic-held seats ripe for takeover. Let's start with the low-hanging fruit....freshman Democrats who got in on a fluke in 2008 and are almost certain losers this go-round. There are at least a half-dozen of them, including Bobby Bright (AL-02), Frank Kratovil (MD-01), Tom Perriello (VA-05), and Walt Minnick (ID-01). And with Charlie Melancon from LA-03 running for the Senate, it's a near certainty his seat will fall into GOP hands. Barring a horrific opposition candidate, none of these guys will be making a second tour in Washington.
Then there are other targets, mostly freshman on sophomore members elected in the 2006 or 2008 sweeps, that are still top-tier and odds-on for defeat in 2010 if the opposition runs an even marginally competent challenge. A sample of such members includes Harry Teague (NM-02), Eric Massa (NY-29), Scott Murphy (NY-20), Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01), Larry Kissell (NC-08), Betsy Markey (CO-04), Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24), Alan Grayson (FL-08), Chris Carney (PA-10), Mark Schauer (MI-07), Travis Childers (MS-01), Carol Shea-Porter (NH-01), Steve Dreihaus (OH-01), Parker Griffith (AL-05), and Glenn Nye (VA-02). The majority of these 16 are likely to be defeated, and those are merely the most endangered off the top of my head.
Beyond that, I expect there will a Democratic purging in the South in 2010 that will be far worse even than 2004. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the Democrats are actually overrepresented in the South relative to their overall strength in the region. There are all kinds of Southern Democrats in the House in districts where McCain won by double digits, and 2010 is likely to be the year that many of them, even veteran Blue Dogs, are put to sleep. Some top GOP prospects include Lincoln Davis (TN-04), Jim Marshall (GA-08), John Barrow (GA-12), Rick Boucher (VA-09), Chet Edwards (TX-17), Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23), John Spratt (SC-05), Gene Taylor (MS-04), Heath Shuler (NC-11), and Allen Boyd (FL-02). Not all of these guys are likely to go down, but I'd bet more than half of them do, and perhaps a couple others I didn't mention like Marion Berry (AR-01) and Mike McIntyre (NC-07). And that's just the South. Strong GOP challenges could put other relative rookie Democrats from north of the Mason-Dixon line such as Brad Ellsworth (IN-08), Tim Walz (MN-01), Bill Foster (IL-14), and Jerry McNerney (CA-11) in a world of hurt.
Then there's the vulnerable old guard that could face a Mario Cuomo/Dan Rostenkowski-style early retirement from voters due to mounting indiscretions and/or political weaknesses, and lack of enthusiasm by their base. In other words, 2010 could be the end of John Murtha (PA-12), Paul Kanjorski (PA-11), and Leonard Boswell (IA-03).
Clearly my list has yielded well over 40 vulnerable or potentially vulnerable Democratic House members, and there are sure to be some I haven't even touched upon. Even without crunching all the numbers that Nate Silver clearly did to determine his calculation, I am very confident (if that's the word) that the Republicans' demogaugery coupled with the Democrats' incompetence will yield a net of AT LEAST 25 seats for the Republicans next year...and that figure is on the low end.
posted by Mark at 7:07 PM
1 Comments:
I agree with you here Mark. Democrats will be damned lucky to hold the House at this point. Obama is probably the worst President I have ever seen and I hope he is defeated in 2012 for everything he has done to our party. If we lose the House in 2010, it is probably gone for a generation. We need to rid ourselves of Obama in 2012 before he does futher damage to the party.
I stand by my wish that I could turn back the clock and have McCain win the 2008 election.
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