What If Hillary Had Been The Nominee?
As is always the case in the month following the election, I've spent the last 30 days endlessly crunching election return numbers and comparing them to past election cycles. Nearly every state now has absentee ballots counted and added to their totals so the numbers are almost official and final (huge find....with absentee ballots now counted, Obama has overtaken McCain and emerged victorious in Salt Lake County, Utah!).
Overall, it's clear that despite his sweeping national victory, Obama was polarizing in some regions of the country and the unfortunate reality is that the Yellow Dog Democrat strongholds of Appalachia, the southern Midwest, and Deep South that have held strong for the Democrats in the last two decades may now be gone forever. Underscoring this trend was a fascinating national county map posted last month on Swing State Project, comparing Mondale/McCain counties with Dole/Obama counties to show political trendlines of the last two decades. The 1984 Mondale-Reagan election was the first national election that I crunched county information for, standing out as a low-water benchmark for national Democratic performance. Nonetheless, it was striking to see how much territory the Democrats have ceded to the Republicans since 1984, and in many cases since 2000.
That has driven my speculation on how much different the national county map would look if Hillary had been the nominee. At this point, I concede that Hillary would probably have won nationally over McCain, but would have run a traditional Democratic campaign that targeted the usual states and would assuredly have kept Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina red while failing to come within 20 points let alone two points in Montana. Nonetheless, I suspect the Yellow Dog areas, most of which Hillary won by landslide margins in the primaries, would have been onboard this cycle, and there would thus be fewer "Mondale/McCain" counties than there was with Obama as a nominee (albeit with far fewer "Dole/Hillary" counties).
Where would Hillary have done better? Arkansas, for sure. She would have won it....probably comfortably. Compared to Obama's nine county victories in Arkansas, Hillary would have likely scored 40+ county wins. Hillary's ultimate position on coal would have still been a factor, but I'm pretty sure southwestern Pennsylvania would have stayed blue while West Virginia would have returned to the blue column with Hillary as the nominee. Eastern Kentucky would have stayed blue as well, but McCain would still have won statewide in Kentucky. Missouri, on the other hand, would probably have been a slam-dunk win for Hillary. Interestingly, Hillary may even have won a few more counties in southern Illinois, a conservative Democrat region in Obama's home state where she beat him in the primaries.
Obama was probably the only Democrat in the country who could have lost Floyd and Knott Counties in Kentucky, along with West Virginia counties like Logan and Mingo, Arkansas counties like Mississippi and Monroe, and Tennessee counties such as Trousdale and Humphreys. If voters in these parts can get over their childish and delusional grievances about race, Obama's being a "secret Muslim plotting against America", or Obama appointing more blacks to positions of power at the expense of whites after they see his aggressive efforts to dig us out of the economic ditch in the next four years, I wouldn't rule out seeing these areas returning to the Democratic fold in 2012. New Deal economic reforms from the 1930s are what made eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee Democratic strongholds in the first place, so Obama's proposed rebirth of such reforms in his economic stimulus platform could prove tremendously appealing to the regions of the country most skeptical about him.
On the other hand, the demographic shift in other "Mondale/McCain" counties has been too dramatic to realistically speculate on their return to the Democratic fold in the foreseeable future. It's striking how many counties that now seem lost forever hung on even through the Gore-Bush election. Is there any Democratic Presidential candidate in America who could have won in places like Colbert County, Alabama; Telfair County, Georgia; Newton County, Texas; Ballard County, Kentucky; or Ottawa County, Oklahoma? Then you have some LONG GONE Mondale counties that even Gore failed to win like Swisher and Orange Counties in Texas, as well as Butts County, Georgia; Edgefield County, South Carolina; and the now exurban GOP strongholds of Dallas County, Iowa, and Chisago County, Minnesota. In none of these counties is any Democrat likely to come within 10 points anytime soon.
By and large, this is much adieu about nothing as the "Mondale/McCain" counties are mostly zero-growth rural areas while the "Dole/Obama" counties are in many cases among the nation's fastest growing. But looking at political science from a historical perspective, and in keeping as many parts of the country as possible competitive for Democrats, it's nonetheless a little discouraging to see that last of the Yellow Dog Democratic counties turn red.
Overall, it's clear that despite his sweeping national victory, Obama was polarizing in some regions of the country and the unfortunate reality is that the Yellow Dog Democrat strongholds of Appalachia, the southern Midwest, and Deep South that have held strong for the Democrats in the last two decades may now be gone forever. Underscoring this trend was a fascinating national county map posted last month on Swing State Project, comparing Mondale/McCain counties with Dole/Obama counties to show political trendlines of the last two decades. The 1984 Mondale-Reagan election was the first national election that I crunched county information for, standing out as a low-water benchmark for national Democratic performance. Nonetheless, it was striking to see how much territory the Democrats have ceded to the Republicans since 1984, and in many cases since 2000.
That has driven my speculation on how much different the national county map would look if Hillary had been the nominee. At this point, I concede that Hillary would probably have won nationally over McCain, but would have run a traditional Democratic campaign that targeted the usual states and would assuredly have kept Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina red while failing to come within 20 points let alone two points in Montana. Nonetheless, I suspect the Yellow Dog areas, most of which Hillary won by landslide margins in the primaries, would have been onboard this cycle, and there would thus be fewer "Mondale/McCain" counties than there was with Obama as a nominee (albeit with far fewer "Dole/Hillary" counties).
Where would Hillary have done better? Arkansas, for sure. She would have won it....probably comfortably. Compared to Obama's nine county victories in Arkansas, Hillary would have likely scored 40+ county wins. Hillary's ultimate position on coal would have still been a factor, but I'm pretty sure southwestern Pennsylvania would have stayed blue while West Virginia would have returned to the blue column with Hillary as the nominee. Eastern Kentucky would have stayed blue as well, but McCain would still have won statewide in Kentucky. Missouri, on the other hand, would probably have been a slam-dunk win for Hillary. Interestingly, Hillary may even have won a few more counties in southern Illinois, a conservative Democrat region in Obama's home state where she beat him in the primaries.
Obama was probably the only Democrat in the country who could have lost Floyd and Knott Counties in Kentucky, along with West Virginia counties like Logan and Mingo, Arkansas counties like Mississippi and Monroe, and Tennessee counties such as Trousdale and Humphreys. If voters in these parts can get over their childish and delusional grievances about race, Obama's being a "secret Muslim plotting against America", or Obama appointing more blacks to positions of power at the expense of whites after they see his aggressive efforts to dig us out of the economic ditch in the next four years, I wouldn't rule out seeing these areas returning to the Democratic fold in 2012. New Deal economic reforms from the 1930s are what made eastern Kentucky and Middle Tennessee Democratic strongholds in the first place, so Obama's proposed rebirth of such reforms in his economic stimulus platform could prove tremendously appealing to the regions of the country most skeptical about him.
On the other hand, the demographic shift in other "Mondale/McCain" counties has been too dramatic to realistically speculate on their return to the Democratic fold in the foreseeable future. It's striking how many counties that now seem lost forever hung on even through the Gore-Bush election. Is there any Democratic Presidential candidate in America who could have won in places like Colbert County, Alabama; Telfair County, Georgia; Newton County, Texas; Ballard County, Kentucky; or Ottawa County, Oklahoma? Then you have some LONG GONE Mondale counties that even Gore failed to win like Swisher and Orange Counties in Texas, as well as Butts County, Georgia; Edgefield County, South Carolina; and the now exurban GOP strongholds of Dallas County, Iowa, and Chisago County, Minnesota. In none of these counties is any Democrat likely to come within 10 points anytime soon.
By and large, this is much adieu about nothing as the "Mondale/McCain" counties are mostly zero-growth rural areas while the "Dole/Obama" counties are in many cases among the nation's fastest growing. But looking at political science from a historical perspective, and in keeping as many parts of the country as possible competitive for Democrats, it's nonetheless a little discouraging to see that last of the Yellow Dog Democratic counties turn red.
posted by Mark at 1:58 PM
5 Comments:
Hillary would have likely won the election over McCain, but my big question is the Congressional results. In the Senate, I highly doubt Democrats would have been able to beat Ted Stevens in Alaska, Norm Coleman, or Gordon Smith in Oregon who was greatly hurt by Obama driven youth turnout. Mary Landrieu could have also been in deep trouble without Obama to drive up the black vote there. On the other hand, Hillary may have performed better in Kentucky, allowing Lunsford to beat McConnell.
In House races, Obama was probably the reason why Democrats won AL-02, AL-05, CT-04, MD-01, NC-08, OH-01, OH-15, VA-02 and VA-05. I also dont think Walt Minnick could have won ID-01 with Hillary at the top of the ticket. She may have helped Democrats pick up KY-02 but that is about it.
I had long believed that Obama was going to be a better candidate for downballot Democrats and I appear to have been right.
No. Mr Phips you are wrong.
What, wrong about Hillary winning?
About Hillary winning by a bigger margin and helping out even more downballot Dems than Obama did. I am not sure if Hillary would have done better than Obama, popular vote and Congressional vote-wise, since McCain would likely have not chosen Palin had Hillary been on the ticket.
I am fairly certain she would have defeated McCain by 9 or 10 no matter what.
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