Could Harry Reid Be The 2010 Version of Chuck Robb?
It's been said that Harry Reid has more lives than a cat in Nevada, but pretty much everybody thought his lives had run out six months ago when he was behind no-name challengers by double-digits in nearly every poll. Then a funny thing happened. All of his opponents began to implode, and by the time Republican voters had a chance to consolidate around a challenger, they chose the wingnuttiest of them all, a fruitcake named Sharron Angle promoting "second amendment remedies" to the incumbent and who has already managed to make Reid look good by comparison to Nevada voters. Reid holds small leads in every poll taken in the last couple of weeks.
But before breaking out the champagne, Reid is still well under 50% and if the election were held today in a one-on-one race, Reid would still almost assuredly lose to Angle given his ceiling of support is about 44-45%. However, in one more fluke of luck, Reid won't have to deal with a one-on-one race with Angle. A Tea Party candidate named John Ashjian is running in the race and cuts into Angle's base. Between that and Nevada's unique "none of the above" option on its ballot and it becomes possible to envision a scenario where a divided opposition allows Harry Reid to win another term in the Senate.
And there's precedent for such a scenario, going back to the last Democratic slaughter in 1994. Perhaps the weakest Senate incumbent going into 1994 was one-term Virginia Democrat Chuck Robb, plagued by a sex scandal and low approval ratings in the red state which he represented. Few would have imagined in the spring of 1994 that the Democrats could lose nine seats that November but Chuck Robb would be one of the survivors, but that's exactly what happened. The key to Robb's success: controversial opposition. Right wing felon Oliver North, the face of the Iran Contra scandal, was the Republican candidate and scared away independents in droves. Meanwhile, independent candidate Marshall Coleman got more than 11% of the vote. The result was that Chuck Robb eked out a two-point victory over Oliver North and got a second term for himself.
Robb took advantage of a perfect political storm, and there's a very good chance Harry Reid could as well, but it's too early to say with any level of certainty that Reid's troubles are behind him. If Angle is able to soften her edges and score some good points in TV ads and in televised debates, she could recapture some of those independents. And it won't take much given Reid's absolute ceiling of 45% support.
I continue to believe Democrats will lose more than 80 House seats in three short months and will come within one seat of losing the Senate, but the possible survival of left-for-dead Harry Reid is nonetheless a development worth mentioning. I'd still give his odds as 40% at best, but that's about 35% higher than I'd have given his odds in May.
But before breaking out the champagne, Reid is still well under 50% and if the election were held today in a one-on-one race, Reid would still almost assuredly lose to Angle given his ceiling of support is about 44-45%. However, in one more fluke of luck, Reid won't have to deal with a one-on-one race with Angle. A Tea Party candidate named John Ashjian is running in the race and cuts into Angle's base. Between that and Nevada's unique "none of the above" option on its ballot and it becomes possible to envision a scenario where a divided opposition allows Harry Reid to win another term in the Senate.
And there's precedent for such a scenario, going back to the last Democratic slaughter in 1994. Perhaps the weakest Senate incumbent going into 1994 was one-term Virginia Democrat Chuck Robb, plagued by a sex scandal and low approval ratings in the red state which he represented. Few would have imagined in the spring of 1994 that the Democrats could lose nine seats that November but Chuck Robb would be one of the survivors, but that's exactly what happened. The key to Robb's success: controversial opposition. Right wing felon Oliver North, the face of the Iran Contra scandal, was the Republican candidate and scared away independents in droves. Meanwhile, independent candidate Marshall Coleman got more than 11% of the vote. The result was that Chuck Robb eked out a two-point victory over Oliver North and got a second term for himself.
Robb took advantage of a perfect political storm, and there's a very good chance Harry Reid could as well, but it's too early to say with any level of certainty that Reid's troubles are behind him. If Angle is able to soften her edges and score some good points in TV ads and in televised debates, she could recapture some of those independents. And it won't take much given Reid's absolute ceiling of 45% support.
I continue to believe Democrats will lose more than 80 House seats in three short months and will come within one seat of losing the Senate, but the possible survival of left-for-dead Harry Reid is nonetheless a development worth mentioning. I'd still give his odds as 40% at best, but that's about 35% higher than I'd have given his odds in May.
posted by Mark at 9:55 PM
1 Comments:
I think the Democratic party will no longer exist after this election. The last time a party lost more than 80 seats was 1932, which wiped out Republicans from national politics for 62 years and the only thing they ever won during that period was the thankless position of the White House, which is so powerless that a monkey could hold it.
Many Democrats want to throw Obama into the Indiana Ocean with lead boots for he has done to the Democratic party and I am one of them. He is cynical, childlike, and naive bastard who wont win reelection. Even members of his own party want to rip his ears off and drown him. You should hear some of the words Nancy Pelosi has privately had for him.
Rot in hell Barack Obama.
Post a Comment
<< Home