Minnesota's Sad Sack Gubernatorial Race
Minnesota's state of financial affairs heading into 2011 make it a miniature California. The combination of the economic collapse, years of partisan gridlock between the Governor and the Legislature, and years of gimmicky deferrals of costs have left Minnesota with at least a $7 billion budget deficit going into 2011. Ironically, the man who left us this hole to dig out of, Governor Tim Pawlenty, now sees himself fit to be President of the United States.
The real tragedy is that there is no white knight on the horizon who seems capable of repairing the Minnesota's state of financial ruin in a credible way as both major party candidates are incredibly flawed. The Republican, Tom Emmer, is as extreme of a right-wing ideologue as you will ever find....basically Michele Bachmann with an Adam's apple. He's a loudmouth blowhard prone to idiotic statements who vows to stay Pawlenty's course of no tax hikes, pledging to fix the state's budget crisis with an across-the-board 30% spending cut, even after everything under the sun has already been cut to bone after eight years of Pawlenty.
On the Democratic side, a hotly contested primary among three flawed but well-meaning candidates left the party with former Senator Mark Dayton as the nominee. This is the same Mark Dayton rated the worst Senator in the country by Time magazine in 2006, who gave himself an "F" grade for his tenure in the Senate, and who has a history of clinical depression and alcoholism. Dayton is a good guy, but is not a natural politician. Furthermore, his policy platform of balancing the budget exclusively with huge tax increases on the rich is gonna be a cinch for the opposition to demagogue, particularly when they point out his proposal will make Minnesota the highest-taxed state in the nation. But to be fair, he does appear to be the only candidate making a serious proposal to solve the state's incredible financial mess, but it's one that will not go over well when the public dissects it.
On to Minnesota's gadfly Independence Party. Much as instinctively detest the party for helping so many Republicans win over the years, they have nominated some solid candidates in the past, and if ever there was a year I would consider them with the opposition being "dumb and dumber", this would be the year. Unfortunately, the IP's nominee this year is center-right Tom Horner, who pledges a "more balanced approach" to the budget with a mix of tax increases and budget cuts. Sounds sensible for the most part, until you read the crux of his budget fix involves the single most disqualifying position a politician can take for me.....yet another cigarette tax. A cigarette tax is gimmicky, predatory, cynical, cowardly, regressive, hypocritical, dishonest, and perhaps worst of all, budgetary malpractice of the highest order. Any politician calling for a cigarette tax will not get my vote from here on out because it proves they're a snake oil peddler and a coward. Horner is among them.
So now what? Actually, given how awful the major parties are, if Horner can present himself the least bit articulately in televised debates, he could easily win this thing Jesse Ventura style. I'm leaning towards a victory by him currently. The current conventional wisdom is that Emmer has made such an ass of himself that he can't win, but I actually feel that's more true of Dayton. In a year such as this, running on a policy platform such as Dayton is, his current poll lead will melt faster than ice cream in a microwave. Emmer, on the other hand, merely needs to slink along for a mistake-free three months and he has a very good chance of taking advantage of the pseudo-conservative flavor of the month among the electorate. His inability to avoid gaffes thus far makes that objective seem like a stretch, but Bachmann largely pulled it off in the much less Republican year of 2006, and was rewarded with an eight-point victory against a well-funded challenger.
So I guess my prediction is that if the current Tom Emmer sticks around for the next three months, Tom Horner will be Governor. But if a more disciplined Tom Emmer shows up in the weeks ahead, he wins. Either way, God have mercy on Minnesotans' souls heading into 2011.
The real tragedy is that there is no white knight on the horizon who seems capable of repairing the Minnesota's state of financial ruin in a credible way as both major party candidates are incredibly flawed. The Republican, Tom Emmer, is as extreme of a right-wing ideologue as you will ever find....basically Michele Bachmann with an Adam's apple. He's a loudmouth blowhard prone to idiotic statements who vows to stay Pawlenty's course of no tax hikes, pledging to fix the state's budget crisis with an across-the-board 30% spending cut, even after everything under the sun has already been cut to bone after eight years of Pawlenty.
On the Democratic side, a hotly contested primary among three flawed but well-meaning candidates left the party with former Senator Mark Dayton as the nominee. This is the same Mark Dayton rated the worst Senator in the country by Time magazine in 2006, who gave himself an "F" grade for his tenure in the Senate, and who has a history of clinical depression and alcoholism. Dayton is a good guy, but is not a natural politician. Furthermore, his policy platform of balancing the budget exclusively with huge tax increases on the rich is gonna be a cinch for the opposition to demagogue, particularly when they point out his proposal will make Minnesota the highest-taxed state in the nation. But to be fair, he does appear to be the only candidate making a serious proposal to solve the state's incredible financial mess, but it's one that will not go over well when the public dissects it.
On to Minnesota's gadfly Independence Party. Much as instinctively detest the party for helping so many Republicans win over the years, they have nominated some solid candidates in the past, and if ever there was a year I would consider them with the opposition being "dumb and dumber", this would be the year. Unfortunately, the IP's nominee this year is center-right Tom Horner, who pledges a "more balanced approach" to the budget with a mix of tax increases and budget cuts. Sounds sensible for the most part, until you read the crux of his budget fix involves the single most disqualifying position a politician can take for me.....yet another cigarette tax. A cigarette tax is gimmicky, predatory, cynical, cowardly, regressive, hypocritical, dishonest, and perhaps worst of all, budgetary malpractice of the highest order. Any politician calling for a cigarette tax will not get my vote from here on out because it proves they're a snake oil peddler and a coward. Horner is among them.
So now what? Actually, given how awful the major parties are, if Horner can present himself the least bit articulately in televised debates, he could easily win this thing Jesse Ventura style. I'm leaning towards a victory by him currently. The current conventional wisdom is that Emmer has made such an ass of himself that he can't win, but I actually feel that's more true of Dayton. In a year such as this, running on a policy platform such as Dayton is, his current poll lead will melt faster than ice cream in a microwave. Emmer, on the other hand, merely needs to slink along for a mistake-free three months and he has a very good chance of taking advantage of the pseudo-conservative flavor of the month among the electorate. His inability to avoid gaffes thus far makes that objective seem like a stretch, but Bachmann largely pulled it off in the much less Republican year of 2006, and was rewarded with an eight-point victory against a well-funded challenger.
So I guess my prediction is that if the current Tom Emmer sticks around for the next three months, Tom Horner will be Governor. But if a more disciplined Tom Emmer shows up in the weeks ahead, he wins. Either way, God have mercy on Minnesotans' souls heading into 2011.
posted by Mark at 6:54 PM
5 Comments:
Rick "Governor 39%" Perry here in Texas, which I am still unfortunately stuck in, also sees himself fit to be president, running on a platform of "fiscal responsibility" and "recession-proofing" Texas, even as jobs and revenue disappear, leaving an $18 billion hole in the budget, almost as bad as "taxing and spending" California.
Wow, Sarah. I didn't realize Texas was in that bad of shape. We always hear about how bad things are in California but never in Texas. Considering all the population growth I would think Texas would be in better shape than most. Apparently they were counting on revenues of $140 per barrel oil lasting forever.
Yep. When oil prices crashed, the Texas economy began to fall along with them. Many think Texas is in better shape because it never faced sharp increases in housing prices and the subsequent drastic drops that California, Nevada, Arizona, and Florida faced, because of regulations on mortgages put in place after the Savings and Loan crisis in the late 80s, which was pretty much a "Texas bailout". And almost no one heard that Perry had used the very stimulus money he railed against to plug the deficit in last year's budget. Next year's budget session is gonna make 2003 look like the good old days.
And as for the governor races, in Texas I think Bill White can win this thing in spite of "DEM candidate, GOP state, GOP year". I see this race playing out kinda like PA-12 (Republican nationalizing, Democrat localizing). Perry is attempting to tie White to Obama while living off the taxpayers' dime in an elaborate house, and attempting to paint himself as an outsider even though he has been governor for almost a decade (the ultimate insider!), while White is focusing much more on state issues, and got endorsed by some Border Patrol officers. So I expect a result similar to PA-12, and won't be surprised to see White win by a similar margin as Critz did a few months earlier.
Back home in California, Whitman has dropped over $100 million, and counting, into her race, and can't manage better than a statistical tie with Brown in the polls, while he hasn't spent a cent. Voters have been sick of seeing her on TV all the time since the primary, plus her free-spending campaign style (all the while preaching fiscal restraint), while many Californians are forced to cut back, may breed even more voter resentment. Brown's campaign has been very shoestring, and voters may see him as far more in touch with their situations than they could ever see "Queen Meg" as. In addition, being an "outsider" may hurt more than it helps in California, with "insider" Obama still over 50% approval and "outsider" Arnold at 20% approval. So, current polls notwithstanding, I expect Brown to win very handily.
Sara, I expect some of these governor's races to be bright spots for Democrats in 2010. Here in New York, Andrew Cuomo will win huge and I think Brown will also win in California. As bad as things are in Texas, Rick Perry will probably win again unfortunately.
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