Might As Well Hit The Governors' Races
I haven't been fully engaged in this year's gubernatorial races until lately, mostly because they're so depressing, but here's my predictions for how they play out on Tuesday....
Alabama--Bentley by 21
Alaska--Parnell by 17
Arizona--Brewer by 15 (often overlooked in the lexicon of unimaginably bad GOP candidates nonetheless poised to have easy victories this week)
Arkansas--Beebe by 15 (a few weeks ago, I thought the tidal wave in Arkansas was so big that it was even gonna sweep Beebe away in the same way Roy Barnes was in Georgia in 2002, but a couple polls since then have show Beebe still comfortably ahead and have changed my mind)
California--Brown by 8 (the one major race that Democrats should be doing everything they can to lose so they don't take ownership over ungovernable California is, naturally, the one race breaking decidedly their way)
Colorado--Tancredo by 1 (one of the biggest upsets of the nights....the wingnut tidal wave will push Tancredo past the finish line and render Hickenlooper the biggest imbecile of the year for managing to piss this one away)
Connecticut--Foley by 3 (another last-minute Republican upset, of which we're gonna see dozens all across the country)
Florida--Scott by 5 (Cell phone gate and the insane fallout from the Meek-Crist pissing match in the Senate race will help the GOP crook pull ahead in the clutch...along with the usual Republican overperformance in Florida polls)
Georgia--Deal by 11 (even if Deal got caught on camera murdering a nun on top of his dozens of additional scandals, the (R) next to his name would still lead him to victory in Georgia this year)
Hawaii--Abercrombie by 6 (the upside to this is when Inouye or Akaka die in office, we'll at least get a Democratic Senator appointed to fill their shoes)
Idaho--Otter by 44
Illinois--Brady by 4 (simply no way in the wake of Blago that we were gonna hold this one)
Iowa--Branstad by 11 (Iowans are gonna be damn sorry six months from now when they remember how much of a douche this guy is)
Kansas--Brownback by 38
Maine--LePage by 7 (another idiotic three-way race helps the wingnut win....will allegedly sane voters ever learn?)
Maryland--O'Malley by 10
Massachusetts--Baker by 2 (third-party candidate implosion at the last minute tips this one to the Republicans)
Michigan--Snyder by 23 (gotta love how the Dems are able to win these big-state governorships at the worst time....the eight years in between redistricting fights...before handing them back to the GOP)
Minnesota--Emmer by 3 (another upset as Democrat Mark Dayton falls apart in the final days of the campaign....I've been watching this movie for 20 years now regarding Minnesota gubernatorial races)
Nebraska--Heineman by 47
Nevada--Sandoval by 18 (who's ever bright idea it was to put a second Reid on the ticket in Nevada this year should be shot)
New Hampshire--Lynch by 3 (Democrat barely hangs on with GOP wave in his state)
New Mexico--Martinez by 14 (wins so big that Democrats Heinrich and Teague both lose their House seats)
New York--Cuomo by 20
Ohio--Kasich by 4 (the fact that Kasich has home-field advantage in Columbus, the region of Ohio that has been moving most towards Democrats in recent years, will be what keeps Strickland from scoring a second term)
Oklahoma--Fallin by 18
Oregon--Dudley by 2
Pennsylvania--Corbett by 9
Rhode Island--Chafee by 8 (looked like he was gonna win even before Caprio's meltdown)
South Carolina--Haley by 14
South Dakota--Daugaard by 13
Tennessee--Haslam by 23
Texas--Perry by 14 (some dreamers still think Bill White is gonna make this close...wrong year)
Vermont--Shumlin by 6 (rare case of a Democrat that gets late momentum)
Wisconsin--Walker by 10
Wyoming--Mead by 47
Right now, there are 25 Democratic Governors and 25 Republicans. After next Tuesday, the breakdown will be 14 Democratic Governors and 36 Republicans counting Tancredo.
Alabama--Bentley by 21
Alaska--Parnell by 17
Arizona--Brewer by 15 (often overlooked in the lexicon of unimaginably bad GOP candidates nonetheless poised to have easy victories this week)
Arkansas--Beebe by 15 (a few weeks ago, I thought the tidal wave in Arkansas was so big that it was even gonna sweep Beebe away in the same way Roy Barnes was in Georgia in 2002, but a couple polls since then have show Beebe still comfortably ahead and have changed my mind)
California--Brown by 8 (the one major race that Democrats should be doing everything they can to lose so they don't take ownership over ungovernable California is, naturally, the one race breaking decidedly their way)
Colorado--Tancredo by 1 (one of the biggest upsets of the nights....the wingnut tidal wave will push Tancredo past the finish line and render Hickenlooper the biggest imbecile of the year for managing to piss this one away)
Connecticut--Foley by 3 (another last-minute Republican upset, of which we're gonna see dozens all across the country)
Florida--Scott by 5 (Cell phone gate and the insane fallout from the Meek-Crist pissing match in the Senate race will help the GOP crook pull ahead in the clutch...along with the usual Republican overperformance in Florida polls)
Georgia--Deal by 11 (even if Deal got caught on camera murdering a nun on top of his dozens of additional scandals, the (R) next to his name would still lead him to victory in Georgia this year)
Hawaii--Abercrombie by 6 (the upside to this is when Inouye or Akaka die in office, we'll at least get a Democratic Senator appointed to fill their shoes)
Idaho--Otter by 44
Illinois--Brady by 4 (simply no way in the wake of Blago that we were gonna hold this one)
Iowa--Branstad by 11 (Iowans are gonna be damn sorry six months from now when they remember how much of a douche this guy is)
Kansas--Brownback by 38
Maine--LePage by 7 (another idiotic three-way race helps the wingnut win....will allegedly sane voters ever learn?)
Maryland--O'Malley by 10
Massachusetts--Baker by 2 (third-party candidate implosion at the last minute tips this one to the Republicans)
Michigan--Snyder by 23 (gotta love how the Dems are able to win these big-state governorships at the worst time....the eight years in between redistricting fights...before handing them back to the GOP)
Minnesota--Emmer by 3 (another upset as Democrat Mark Dayton falls apart in the final days of the campaign....I've been watching this movie for 20 years now regarding Minnesota gubernatorial races)
Nebraska--Heineman by 47
Nevada--Sandoval by 18 (who's ever bright idea it was to put a second Reid on the ticket in Nevada this year should be shot)
New Hampshire--Lynch by 3 (Democrat barely hangs on with GOP wave in his state)
New Mexico--Martinez by 14 (wins so big that Democrats Heinrich and Teague both lose their House seats)
New York--Cuomo by 20
Ohio--Kasich by 4 (the fact that Kasich has home-field advantage in Columbus, the region of Ohio that has been moving most towards Democrats in recent years, will be what keeps Strickland from scoring a second term)
Oklahoma--Fallin by 18
Oregon--Dudley by 2
Pennsylvania--Corbett by 9
Rhode Island--Chafee by 8 (looked like he was gonna win even before Caprio's meltdown)
South Carolina--Haley by 14
South Dakota--Daugaard by 13
Tennessee--Haslam by 23
Texas--Perry by 14 (some dreamers still think Bill White is gonna make this close...wrong year)
Vermont--Shumlin by 6 (rare case of a Democrat that gets late momentum)
Wisconsin--Walker by 10
Wyoming--Mead by 47
Right now, there are 25 Democratic Governors and 25 Republicans. After next Tuesday, the breakdown will be 14 Democratic Governors and 36 Republicans counting Tancredo.
posted by Mark at 4:57 PM
4 Comments:
I am not surprised that the California governorship is breaking in Team Blue's favor, which I had been predicting for months. The state is still trending Democratic (unlike say Massachusetts) plus Brown is in the right place at the right time, being an "insider", which is much more in demand in California than elsewhere (55% approval for "insider" Obama, 20% for "outsider" Arnold), and also being a septuagenarian and hence unlikely to make another run for the presidency, as in 2012 he'd be older than McCain in 2008.
With no more plans for higher office, it is much more likely Brown will focus completely on the state for the sake of his legacy, making reforming the state government Priority Number One without getting distracted by thinking about another run for the presidency. I do not see any guarantees that the 54-year-old Whitman will not consider higher office, whether in 2012 or 2016. I shudder to think of a Governor Whitman making campaign stops all over the country for a potential 2016 bid, when a wildfire erupts in a large swath of tinder-dry forest in the Sierras or the San Andreas pops big time under L.A. making Angelenos long for Northridge.
And also, as dysfunctional as the state government is, California is too big a national player to be left in the proverbial desert. The state's ailing economy still packs a powerful punch in the national economy, with many innovations especially in the sciences going on as I type this (I hope to move to San Francisco in the next couple of years because of great opportunities in biotechnology), and also in the employment department. As long as unemployment remains high there, which is almost guaranteed if Whitman is put in charge, then it will be almost impossible for the national unemployment rate to fall below 9%.
And then there is the very ugly precedent of allowing billionaires to buy elections if she succeeds. Voters are already pissed enough that Whitman can throw around nine-figure sums of money like candy while they're forced to cut back, and Brown has taken advantage of this by running a shoestring budget, having spent all of $25 million the whole cycle, most of it after Labor Day and only a seventh of what eMeg has spent.
14 seats for Democrats is the record low for the party. This is amazing how the Democratic party has fallen apart. I wish you were right when you said McCain had 90% odds in 2008.
sara, what's your final call on House and Senate seat losses?
Just finished my predictions. This time I mixed my "gut feeling" predictions with the formula methods I employed in 2006 and 2008. This time I have Republicans controlling the governorships 27-22-1 (Chafee), the Republicans gaining a net 5 seats in the Senate; Dems retain control 54-46, and Republicans gaining 42 seats in the House for control 220-215.
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