2010 Election Postmortem
Normally, I try to write my election postmortem within two days after the election but considering how many races tend to hang out there for days or even weeks after election night, I figured I might as well hang back a week or so and crunch some election returns while waiting for the West Coast to get their ballots counted at the usual snail's pace. Overall, the Democrats didn't do quite as bad as I expected, but they still got smashed, wiping out 37 of the 48 Democrats in Congress from districts won by John McCain. In other words, districts we have almost no chance of ever getting back. I think the best explanation why the 90-plus seat loss I anticipated didn't happen is that the Democrats have a strong enough GOTV operation in enough places to assure a historic once-in-a-century wipeout is an almost impossible feat. In places where Democrats have a strong machine, such as Philadelphia and now Las Vegas, enough Democratic voters are always gonna be produced to mitigate losses, effectively in the case of Harry Reid, but falling just short in the case of Joe Sestak.
But "not being as bad as I predicted" still qualifies this as nothing less than a crushing defeat. As I anticipated two years ago, the most damage was indeed done in state legislatures across the country, handing the GOP legislative majorities that will redistrict themselves a favorable map for the next decade. Just as was the case in 2000, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania stand out as the states where we're poised to get the least favorable district map. What passes for good news is that the Republicans controlled redistricting in all three states in 2001 as well so there isn't a lot more damage that can be done to us. Still, expect at least one Democrat to fall in all three states. Dennis Kucinich and Betty Sutton will probably be districted together in Ohio. Gary Peters and Sander Levin in Michigan. And probably Mark Critz districted into Tim Murphy's turf in Pennsylvania. Other Democrats are likely to be felled in a number of other states as well. It was a bad year to lose big, but there was no other outcome possible, which was evident two years ago.
Anyway, as always, as state-by-state analysis...
Alabama--It was obvious that there were gonna be some states where Democrats would be utterly vaporized on election night 2010 and Alabama was one of them. Dems lost both houses of the Alabama Legislature, and despite early October confidence that conservative Democrat Bobby Bright had inoculated himself against the charge of being one of those "lib'ruls" in Congress, the race broke late along party lines and Bright ended up losing 51-49. No great loss, but nonetheless frightening to see more turf permanently ceded to the other side as Bright's defeat assures in Montgomery, Alabama. More depressing is that Democrats ran the only gubernatorial candidate who could possibly win in Alabama (Ron Sparks) and he still got destroyed by double digits.
Alaska--Hard to get too excited about the likelihood that Lisa Murkowski is going back to the Senate, but her victory was nonetheless a rare moment of sanity from election season 2010 in the rejection of Tea Party wingnut and hypocrite Joe Miller. It was also nice to see Sarah Palin get embarrassed when her archrival overcame Palin's hand-picked candidate. Beyond that, Don Young who was expected to lose in 2008 won again handily while Palin's GOP successor Sean Parnell held the Governor's office. Across-the-board Republican year in Alaska, but the worst possible outcome of a Miller victory was likely averted.
Arizona--I don't have strong feelings either way on Arizona's new anti-immigration law, but the shocking level of incompetence displayed by Governor Jan Brewer in virtually all public appearances was frightening, particularly given that she was still re-elected by double digits. In the Congressional races, I never really felt as though Raul Grijalva would be taken out in his majority Hispanic district, but was surprised by how narrow his winning margin was. In the other four contested races, an October PPP poll suggesting Ben Quayle was trailing his Demcratic challenger proved fruitless and, as everyone expected, Democratic incumbents Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell were felled. Kirkpatrick's seat seems winnable again in a better climate, but I can't see any other Democrat but Harry Mitchell ever winning AZ-05 again. The one pleasant surprise in Arizona is that attractive and charismatic Class of 2006 Democrat Gabrielle Giffords narrowly held on for her third term.
Arkansas--I had anticipated Arkansas would be an across-the-board killing fields for Democrats this year in much the way Georgia was for Democrats in 2002. As such, I expected popular Democratic Governor Mike Beebe would end up falling in the same way Roy Barnes did in Georgia eight years earlier. That certainly didn't happen as Beebe prevailed in all 75 Arkansas counties. In the House races, the open seats vacated by Democrats Marion Berry and Vic Snyder slipped away to the other side as expected, but Blue Dog Mike Ross held on by a surprisingly comfortable double-digit margin in southern Arkansas. The state's marquee race was the Senate race, of course, and that was over a year ago with Republican John Boozman laying waste to two-term Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln by more than 20 points, leaving Lincoln as the last incumbent Senator who lost by 20 points since George McGovern in 1980.
California--The state of California remains an impenetrable indigo blue fortress even in this most inhospitable political climate. Neither of the GOP candidates for Senate or Governor were particularly bad this year, although their political instincts were fairly mediocre and ultimately allowed Democrats to prevail. Jerry Brown now retakes ownership of the most thankless job in the country, one I'm not so sure Democrats should have really wanted to win. Barbara Boxer also won by a surprisingly lopsided margin and effectively consolidated the 2004 John Kerry coalition for a nine-point win. Just as impressive if not more so was the Democrats hanging onto every California House seat, even Jerry McNerney in his conservative-leaning Central Valley district. The combination of white liberals and Hispanics now look like an overwhelming coalition for Democrats in California elections, but the state's impending bankruptcy could change a lot of attitudes pretty quickly out there.
Colorado--Thanks to the GOP's nomination of horrible candidates for both the Governor and Senate races, the Democrats kept their Colorado winning streak alive for another election cycle. Good guy Democratic Senator Michael Bennet mercifully prevailed over noxious opponent Ken Buck while Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper prevailed in a complicated gubernatorial election where the Republican candidate barely got 10%. The House races were less accommodating to Democrats, however, as John Salazar and Betsy Markey both got ousted. Both districts continue to trend Democratic, however, and I suspect we may see them turn blue again in a less toxic cycle.
Connecticut--The northeast continued to be a blue sanctuary in 2010 despite legitimate Republican threats at every level. In the Senate race, Attorney General Dick Blumenthal's self-aggrandizement almost put his race at serious risk, but his long-standing popularity along with the GOP's nomination of WWE baroness Linda McMahon rather than moderate war hero Rob Simmons helped Blumenthal win handily. Two House districts held by Jim Himes and Chris Murphy appeared to be at risk in the closing weeks of the campaign, yet both prevailed. Himes' victory wasn't official until some late votes arrived from Bridgeport, which also sealed the deal for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dan Malloy, another Democrat whose long-held lead nearly slipped away in the closing weeks of the campaign. In the end, the Democrats couldn't have asked for a much better year in Connecticut in defiance of national trendlines.
Delaware--Perhaps the only state where Democrats had a better 2010 than Connecticut was Delaware where moderate Republican Mike Castle forfeited his safe House seat to run for the Senate, only to get hoodwinked in the primary by right-wing nutball Christine O'Donnell. Republicans also ran a Tea Party wingnut for Castle's old House race and the result was a double-digit margin of victory for Democrats in both races. Newly elected Senator Chris Coons is the luckiest man in politics this year and the unluckiest is perhaps Beau Biden, who passed on a Senate run believing he couldn't beat Mike Castle.
Florida--From the good to the very bad, Florida was a killing fields for Democrats this year, and candidates who verifiably belong in prison ended up winning. At the top of that list is new Governor Rick Scott, a corporate crook who plead the fifth dozens of times to crimes but managed to buy the seat with stolen cash, beating a very credible challenge from top-tier Democrat Alex Sink. One of the worst clusterfucks in recent history catapulted charismatic right-wing newcomer Marco Rubio into the Senate, although I highly doubt either Kendrick Meek or Charlie Crist could have beaten him in a two-person race. Dems lost four House seats to boot, three of which were predictable with Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson, and Suzanne Kosmas. The Democratic trendlines of the Orlando area make it likely we'll get Grayson's seat back with a less abrasive emissary. But the ultimate kick in the teeth from Florida voters in 2010 was the eight-point victory for Allen West over incumbent Ron Klein in Democratic-leaning Palm Beach County. I have no idea what the retired Jews of Boca Raton found so compelling about a candidate who rode with a criminal biker gang, said he had a higher security clearance than the President, and said he wanted to make it so his opponent was afraid to leave his home. West's victory stands out even now as one of the worst outcomes of an incredibly bad election night.
Georgia--A lot of crooks were elected to the highest levels of government last week...literally. In addition to Rick Scott in Florida, Nathan Deal of Georgia weathered about 10 different scandals that would have sunk just about any other candidate, but Deal prevailed by double digits because of one secret weapon....the (R) next to his name. Beyond that, Democrats lucked out by losing only one House seat, and that was of course Jim Marshall in central Georgia who was always living on borrowed time in his conservative district. On the plus side, despite an embarrassing scandal, Sanford Bishop held on by the barest of margins in his southwestern Georgia district. I'm hoping Bishop steps aside after this close call as his 44% black district is not one that Republicans have any right winning.
Hawaii--It's always hard to poll Hawaii so it wasn't clear until late that Democrats were gonna retake the governorship with Neil Abercrombie, which is a particular plus in Hawaii with two Democratic Senators older than 85 years old. Hawaii's love of incumbents led me to mistakenly believe that when Charles Djou prevailed in a three-candidate race in the special Congressional election last spring, it was his for life. Luckily, in one of their three pickups in the nation, Democrat Coleen Hanabusa was able to get the job done and beat Djou in November.
Idaho--The only contested race was one I knew was too good to be true for Democrats when Walt Minnick held a comfortable lead in his accidental House race right up until the last couple of weeks and the partisan tide of Idaho caught up to him. In the end, it wasn't even close. Minnick, who had led by about 10 points in most polls, ended up losing to Hispanic Republican Raul Labrador by nearly 10 points. What's amazing is that Minnick ever won this seat in the first place and held a lead in the polls for months.
Illinois--Every election year, no matter how massive the partisan wave, there's an incumbent Congressperson who survives despite everybody proclaiming him or her dead. This year, it wasn't a Congressman who rose from the dead to score a surprise win. It was Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, who inherited the seat when Rod Blagojevich and was expected to suffer for that connection by just about everybody. But Quinn narrowly survived. There were other Democratic gubernatorial candidates I would have preferred to see survive besides Quinn but it was nice to be able to hold one Midwestern statehouse this year as the region swung heavily to Republicans. Unfortunately, Democrats got mauled everywhere else in Illinois, managing to lose Obama's Senate seat to Republican Mark Kirk thanks to a perfect storm of lousy candidate selection and the shadow of scandal haunting the Dems, especially downstate. Meanwhile, Democrats lost four House seats, including a heavily Democratic seat in the Rock Island area that was drawn to specifically condense all the Democratic industrial cities of downstate Illinois, and including Melissa Bean's seat which nobody considered vulnerable. On top of that, Kirk's old House district in the northern suburbs of Chicago, which leans considerably blue, stayed in Republican hands by a 51-49 margin, denying Democrats one of the few expected pickups. So Quinn's unexpected victory notwithstanding, it was still a horrific year for Democrats in Illinois and one has to hope for a much more hospitable climate in 2012 with Barack Obama back on the ballot, positioning Democrats to win at least a couple of these seats back.
Indiana--Two consecutive good cycles for Democrats in traditionally Republican Indiana evened out last week as Democrats got mauled in Evan Bayh's old Senate seat with a candidate that appeared strong on paper, and also lost two Democratic-held House districts in southern Indiana that are gonna be very hard to get back. Joe Donnelly narrowly held on in his northern Indiana seat, but even that is a pyrrhic victory since his district is likely to be merged with IN-01 in redistricting. It wasn't realistic that we would hold conservative Indiana, but here we are right back to where we were in 2004 in the state.
Iowa--Another Midwestern bloodbath with unjustifiably popular former Governor-for-life Terry Branstad defeating incumbent Democrat Chet Culver and scoring an unprecedented fifth term, bringing along a Republican supermajority in the Iowa state House and a reduced Democratic majority in the state Senate with him. The only good news that came out of this carnage is that all three Congressional Democrats, endangered to various degrees, narrowly prevailed even with Republicans dominant at the top of the ticket. On the other hand, it's a certain bet that with Iowa losing one of their House seats, next year, one of the three Democrats will be extinguished.
Kansas--Not much to say here. A state that's always been red becomes monolithically so this cycle, with a new hard-right Republican Governor and Dennis Moore's old House seat picked up by a Republican.
Kentucky--There was no way Jack Conway was gonna beat Rand Paul in Kentucky this year, but the tacky Aqua Buddha ad predictably backfired and turned what may have been a close race into a double-digit Paul blowout, nearly taking down Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler in the firestorm. Something tells me a lot of voters could find themselves with buyers' remorse thanks to the incessant grandstanding that Paul can expected to put on once he becomes a Senator. Whatever the case, we're stuck with him for six years.
Louisiana--My gut said Charlie Melancon's well-run campaign would ultimately bring him to within single digits of David Vitter, but it wasn't meant to be as Vitter prevailed by almost 20 points despite all of his considerable warts and the fact that he barely even campaigned. Beyond that, an even swap of House races as Charlie Melancon's seat went easily to the GOP while a Democrat had no trouble winning back the New Orleans-based LA-02 that Republican Joseph Cao picked up in a perfect storm special election.
Maine--The state of Maine took a hard right turn at the state level, with a three-way gubernatorial race allowing a Tea Party wingnut to prevail with a plurality, Minnesota-style. Beyond that, both houses of the Maine legislature swung to the Republicans, creating a perilous situation for progressives in that state for at least the next two years. The good news was that both nominally endangered Democratic Congresspersons from Maine prevailed fairly handily.
Maryland--In one of the most Democratic states in the country, little changed with easy re-elections for Senator Barbara Mikulski and Governor Martin O'Malley. The only loss was accidental Democratic Congressman Frank Kratovil from the state's Eastern Shore who picked up a seat in a perfect storm in 2008 and was never gonna hold the seat under normal electoral conditions, let alone the 2010 GOP tsunami.
Massachusetts--I was very surprised by how well Democrats did this year in Massachusetts, expecting the Scott Brown phenomenon to continue along with the general softening of Democratic strength in the state. Instead, three potentially endangered Democratic incumbents all prevailed handily and even the open seat in the state's least Democratic district stayed in Democratic hands. On top of that, Governor Deval Patrick prevailed by a comfortable margin in a race that was no sure thing for him. It's definitely nice that there are a few bastions of Democratic strength that can generally withstand even a Category 5 hurricane.
Michigan--With the combination of Michigan's rotten economy overseen exclusively by Democrats currently in control of Congress and Michigan state government, it was pretty obvious that it would be an ugly year for Democrats in the state. And it was. As expected, Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder won in a landslide, and his coattails produced GOP supermajorities in both houses of the legislature as well. What a kick in the teeth that the same Republican Party that wanted to let the Detroit automakers be vaporized just two years ago is now rewarded by the state's voters. How quickly we forget. Despite some promising late poll numbers, Democrat Mark Schauer was taken out by the GOP tide. I was a little surprised that Gary Peters was able to hang on in Oakland County, but as I said, his seat is likely to be merged with MI-12 after the Republican gerrymander, so two years is probably all Peters has left. Very rough year for Michigan to go crimson red.
Minnesota--It was a mixed night in Minnesota. It looks like we'll have a Democrat Governor in Mark Dayton, but after the DFL supermajorities became Republican majorities, Dayton's not gonna have much to work with. Minnesota's legislative districts are very competitive so with any kind of partisan wind a whole pit of seats change hands. But even I didn't see this big of a GOP wave in the legislature. I was surprised on the other hand that Democrats were able to hold all three constitutional offices (Secretary of State, Auditor, Attorney General) even with the weakness at the top of the ticket. Southern Minnesota Democratic Congressman Tim Walz held on fairly comfortable, but regrettably one of the smartest and most effective Congressmen in the country, Jim Oberstar, was caught flat-footed at the worst possible time and his charismatic challenger managed to slay the dragon in an election that became a referendum on Oberstar's decadeslong tenure in Congress. Much as I hate to say it, I saw this coming back in the summer. It's not at all certain this seat is gonna be a cinch to win back either as the parts of MN-08 that are growing are comfortably Republican. While Minnesota's overall trajectory still makes it more accommodating for Democrats than Republicans, it's halcyon days as one of the nation's most Democratic states is over.
Mississippi--Reality finally caught up with two conservative Democratic Congressman who had been winning in districts where they had no business winning given their significant GOP lean. Gene Taylor is no real loss as far as I'm concerned, but Travis Childers was an excellent politician who seemed to fit his district very well and had the potential to be a rising star. We're unlikely to see the kind of perfect storm that will make him electable in Mississippi again the way he was in 2008.
Missouri--A state that's been getting progressively redder for a generation now took another giant leap that direction last week, where even the very poor Republican Senate candidate Roy Blunt crushed his Democratic challenger by 13 points in an open seat. In the U.S. House, long-time red district Democrat Ike Skelton was voted out in a seat that we'll never get back while Democrat Russ Carnahan barely hung on even in a traditionally Democratic seat on the south side of St. Louis. And Carnahan's seat seems likely to be eliminated if Missouri loses a seat after reapportionment, which they're poised to do. So yeah....bad situation in Missouri.
Montana--Of all 50 states, one of the least eventful was Montana which had no Senate or gubernatorial races this year, nor any competitive House races. There's effectively nothing that can be said about election night 2010 in Montana.
Nebraska--Not much can be said about Nebraska either. There was some optimistic chatter about taking out Republican Congressman Lee Terry in the Omaha area, but it never materialized and Terry won re-election big-time along with every other Republican on the ballot in Nebraska.
Nevada--The marquee Senate race in the nation turned out to be an unexpected pleasant surprise for Democrats. Not only did Harry Reid beat back the most delusional Tea Partier of all, he beat Sharron Angle by five points and got more than 50% of the vote, which nobody believed would happen. Even though I predicted Angle would win along with just about everybody else, I always kept in the back of my mind that Democrats have overperformed expectations and polling data in Nevada in the last five Presidential elections. Latino voters and union activists were pivotal in Reid's amazing comeback, and Reid has to be credited with running a fantastic campaign. He said last year he would "vaporize" his opponent in the 2010 midterm, and against all odds, he did just that. Son Rory Reid didn't fare as well in the gubernatorial race, but even he performed several points better than the polls suggested. Meanwhile, Harry Reid's coattails weren't quite enough to save Dina Titus in NV-03, but with Nevada adding a fourth Congressional seat next year, it's a likely bet the new seat will be Democratic majority and potentially allow Titus back into a safer seat. All in all, a bright spot for the Democrats, particularly with Nevada being one of the fastest growing states in the country.
New Hampshire--From a bright spot to a very dark spot, all the gains the Democrats made in New Hampshire in 2006 and 2008 were wiped out and then some last week. Against the grain of the rest of the northeast which mostly held strong for Democrats, New Hampshire saw the most widespread turnover to the Republicans, even though once invincible Democratic Governor John Lynch did hold on. Beyond that, Republican Kelly Ayotte crushed Paul Hodes by more than 20 points in a Senate race once considered competitive. Meanwhile, Hodes' old House seat went back to Republican hands in a race the Democrats thought they had a good chance of holding given the district's Democratic trendline. In the more conservative NH-01 district, Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter was ousted. But the most damage was done in the legislature where Republicans gained more than 100 seats in the 400-seat state House and somehow flipped a Democratic state Senate to a 19-6 Republican majority. Astounding. It always seemed that New Hampshire's swing to the Democrats was predicated more on distaste for the excesses of the Bush era than any real movement to the left. Particularly with the state's population centers in the southeast solidifying for Republicans, it looks like New Hampshire has reverted back to form.
New Jersey--The damage was done in New Jersey in 2009 with the election of middle class-destroying GOP gubernatorial hero Chris Christie. This year, the Democrats managed to hold back that GOP momentum for the most part. Democratic freshman Congressman John Adler in a marginal South Jersey district was taken out, but the other House races considered nominally competitive remained in Democratic hands.
New Mexico--A mixed night in New Mexico and a partial correction following the Democratic tsunami of 2008 which flipped the state's entire Congressional delegation to Democrats. This year, a Hispanic Republican woman won picked up the Governor's seat for the GOP, albeit with a smaller than expected margin. Meanwhile, the two competitive House races had a split decision with Albuquerque-area Congressman Martin Heinrich hanging on but southern New Mexico's Harry Teague getting taken out by former GOP Congressman Steve Pearce. The fact that Teague kept it relatively close even in the state's most conservative district which John McCain won was comforting, and suggests that the growing Latino vote being largely consolidated by Democrats means the party's future in New Mexico is bright.
New York--Ultimately a very bad night for Democrats. Sure, Democratic incumbent Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand won in 20-point landslides as did Andrew Cuomo in the gubernatorial race, but it now appears we lost SEVEN House races in New York. Some were predictable, including Mike Arcuri, John Hall, and Eric Massa's old seat, but even I thought Tim Bishop and Dan Maffei were odds-on for re-election until late-breaking developments showed Republicans with the whip hand in both as-yet-uncalled races. Meanwhile, Scott Murphy and Michael McMahon somehow failed to hold onto their huge leads, in Murphy's case losing by double digits. Kind of amazing that the one Democrat who held on was Bill Owens in the very marginal NY-23 seat and arguably the most vulnerable incumbent of all in New York. Also amazing that Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand had zero coattails to save some of these guys. Given that New York is poised to lose at least one more House seat, one of these Republican freshmen is likely to be felled, while a couple others (like Maffei's current seat in NY-25) are odds-on to go blue again. But still, a pretty pathetic showing.
North Carolina--From a short-term perspective, Democrats didn't have a terrible night in North Carolina. It was obvious months ago that Democrats were gonna be crushed in the Senate race, but the 12-point defeat handed to weak Democratic nominee Elaine Marshall was actually less severe than was the battleground Senate race in Missouri. Better yet, of the four Democratic Congressmen who were considered endangered to some degree, three survived. The only casualty was Bob Etheridge, who barely lost even after an ugly outburst with a voter caught on tape. Now for the long-term bad news. Republicans won both houses of the North Carolina legislature and Democratic Governor Bev Perdue can't veto their redistricting plan. This is particularly consequential in North Carolina because the Democrats drew up a very effective gerrymander in 2000 and a less friendly map could easily wipe out two Democrats in 2012. The trendlines in North Carolina remain favorable for Democrats, but this is a huge setback.
North Dakota--The all-Democratic Congressional delegation in this Republican stronghold was always living on borrowed time, and the time officially expired last week when Byron Dorgan's seat went to Republican John Hoeven and Earl Pomeroy got trounced by 10 points in the state's at-large Congressional seat. Pomeroy was as good of a Democrat as you're ever gonna get out of North Dakota and in the current polarized climate perhaps the only one who could ever win there. At this point, I'd wager against a comeback in 2012 or less hostile future election cycles, unfortunately.
Ohio--One of the night's predictable but nonetheless brutal wipeouts. It was encouraging to see Governor Ted Strickland's 11th hour comeback given what was at stake in holding Ohio's governorship. It also put to the test whether the arithmatic would still hold up that the previous generation's "inverted C" Ohio county map producing Democratic victories from Toledo and Cleveland in the north to Youngstown in the east to Steubenville and Portsmouth in the south would still be enough to win. The answer was no as Ted Strickland won that baseline and even did better than I expected in John Kasich's Columbus home base, but still lost by more than 100,000 votes. Worse yet, Strickland's base in southern Ohio provided no coattails for Democratic Congressional incumbents Zack Space and Charlie Wilson, who both lost by comfortable margins along with the predictable defeats of marginal Democratic incumbent freshmen Steve Dreihaus, Mary Jo Kilroy, and John Boccieri. And on top of that, Bush's former outsourcing czar managed to convince Ohioans to give him a promotion to the Senate so he can continue his work of exporting what's left of their jobs overseas. As bad as the night was in Ohio, it's still not fully clear what the state's trendlines are. If Columbus, the only part of Ohio that is growing, continues to get bluer, things not be as bad as they look today. On the other hand, the state is poised to lose two Congressional seats next year. One of them is likely to be Betty Sutton's in northern Ohio while the other is likely to be one of the two freshman Republican in southern Ohio. The merging of those southern Ohio districts will make it harder for Democrats to win the current configuration of OH-06 back.
Oklahoma--With only token Democratic opposition in one of the nation's most conservative states, Republicans Tom Coburn and Mary Fallin easily dominated their respective Senate and gubernatorial races, while the Boren name continues to allow Dan Boren the ability to keep getting re-electing in his reddening-by-the-day eastern Oklahoma district.
Oregon--Another Democratic success story, with both endangered Democratic Congressional candidates prevailing and with Governor John Kitzhaber narrowly beating back a strong challenge from Republican Chris Dudley. Not encouraging, however, that the Democrats were only able to avoid calamity in the northeast and west coast in 2010 while the rest of the country swung hard right. But at least the tsunami didn't hit the coasts, as ironic as that analogy may be.
Pennsylvania--Another horrible state for Democrats. With as much ink has been given to Joe Sestak's would-be comeback falling just short in the Senate race, what's most telling is that the Philadelphia machine cranked out just about every last vote possible and it still wasn't enough for Sestak as the exurban enclaves that were pushing Pennsylvania deep into Democratic hands reverted back to GOP form for Toomey. Much like Portman in Ohio, country club Republican Toomey is not a natural fit for Pennsylvania and passionately advocates for policies that will destroy the state, but we're stuck with him for six years nonetheless. Five Democratic seats swung to the GOP, and only one of them (Sestak's old seat) seems ripe for winning back in a more favorable cycle. Worse yet, two conservative Democrats in southwestern Pennsylvania considered reasonably safe eked out scant 51-49 margins, underscoring how deep of trouble the Democrats are in that part of the state. And one of those seats is almost certain to be eliminated in the redistricting, which will of course be overseen by the state's Republican legislature and newly elected Republican Governor. Basically, another Middle American swing state, another doomsday election night outcome last week.
Rhode Island--Democratic gubernatorial candidate Frank Caprio's angry outburst probably saved the state from going Republican, as so many of Caprio's voters swung to left-of-center independent Lincoln Chafee and kept the left's vote from being so divided that Robatellie won. Meanwhile, Patrick Kennedy's old House seat stayed Democrat, after a brief scare, and Jim Langevin held onto his seat. A generally good night for Democrats in Rhode Island.
South Carolina--I was taken aback by how modest Nikki Haley's margin of victory was, and find it fascinating how blue a South Carolina county map can be and still produce a Republican victory, contrary to most states where the opposite is true. Also kind of amusing that the Democrats worst candidate in the country, Alvin Greene, still managed to win the majority black counties in the Senate race. The state has become a virtually impenetrable GOP fortress and Democratic Congressman John Spratt, who had successfully lived on borrowed time for decades, was finally taken out. Like Fritz Hollings before him, we're losing a genuinely left-of-center Southern Democrat and we'll never get someone that good again. The one possible upside is that South Carolina is gaining a House district and there's a decent possibility it will be another majority minority seat protected by the Voting Rights Act and conceivably giving the state a second Democrat in the House.
South Dakota--I love close elections in South Dakota and was feverishly tracking on election night the contest between two attractive female candidates in the state's at-large House race. Despite the majority of polls showing Democratic incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin narrowly leading, I had my doubts. But as the returns rolled in, it was looking like Herseth Sandlin's baseline numbers were coming in favorable enough to produce a narrow victory for her. She was doing a little bit better in key counties than did Tim Johnson in 2002, and Johnson won. It must simply have been a matter of higher voter turnout in Republican counties because Republican Kristi Noem took her over when the western SD precincts rolled in and in the end won reasonably comfortably. Very low turnout on the reservations wasn't helpful to Herseth Sandlin, but even 2004-level turnouts on the reservations wouldn't have been enough for her. Sad to see this seat go red, and one has to believe the Democrats are kicking themselves a little for not putting up a challenger to John Thune in the hope of raising turnout a little. Tim Johnson definitely lucked out in not having to run this year because it would likely have been his Waterloo.
Tennessee--A really terrible year in Tennessee was inevitable this year, and lived up to expectations entirely with a 20-point GOP blowout in the gubernatorial election and three of the Democrats five House seats flipping to the GOP. TN-06 and TN-08 were predictable, but it was only in the final weeks that Lincoln Davis' seat started looking increasingly vulnerable, ironically only weeks after a New York Times story highlighting how Davis looked like he was gonna weather the storm. In the end, Davis not only lost, but earned the distinction of being the House Democrat who lost by the widest margin in an 18-point blowout. And if there was any hope of Democrats winning these seats back, the upcoming GOP-dominated gerrymander should render all of them unwinnable, enshrining a permanent 7-2 GOP House majority in Tennessee, a state rivaled only by Oklahoma in how inhospitable it's become for Democrats in the last decade.
Texas--Even in a year like 2006, I would have bet against Houston Mayor Bill White taking out incumbent Rick Perry in Texas. The fact that so many Democrats were so bullish about the prospect of beating Perry in a year like 2010 was laughable, particularly with Texas' oil-inflated economy standing tall among its peers. The turmoil downballot is a bigger problem. It was clear in 2008 that Chet Edwards was gonna have a tough time hanging on in his brutally conservative central Texas district, but his double-digit thumping was nonetheless eye-opening. And low voter turnout in Hispanic districts, always a problem, managed to unseat Democrat Solomon Ortiz. That seat should be pretty easy to win back, but the same can't be said for Ciro Rodriguez' more conservative southwestern Texas seat. With Texas poised to gain four seats, it's a good bet that the Voting Rights Act will generate an even split of two Democratic seats and two Republicans. Plus it's possible the district lines won't be as toxic as they current are after Tom Delay's 2003 gerrymander.
Utah--The only thing worth reporting here is that Democrat Jim Matheson held on reasonably comfortably even in his red district, one of the few Blue Dogs to do so. It'll be interesting to see what kind of map the Republicans draw for Matheson heading into 2012. With Utah gaining a seat, it's possible they could go easy on Matheson in favor of shoring up three solid Republican seats. Also likely to be intriguing is seeing whether Utah's unique primary nominating process will result in the ouster of Senate institution Orrin Hatch on the grounds that he's insufficiently far-right. My guess is he's going down in favor of a Tea Party wingnut who vows that, unlike Hatch, he will never work with those disgusting Democrats on a single issue.
Vermont--Only one high profile race in Vermont and it was the gubernatorial race, which broke in the very end for the Democrat. Once again, the northeast holds strong for Democrats as the rest of the country swing the other direction.
Virginia--A year every bit as bad as predicted with no high-profile races at the top of the ballot providing coattails. Democrat Gerry Connolly held on by the skin of his teeth in his suburban DC district, but beyond that, three other Democrats lost their seats and the Democrats are stuck at the same place they were in 2006 with an 8-3 Republican map. I had a hard time believing Democrat Rick Boucher in the state's most conservative district was gonna hold on after his cap-and-trade vote, and sure enough, even after months of leads in the polls, the race broke late and broke hard for his Republican challenger. Crazy that Boucher ended up losing by as much as Tom Perriello in central Virginia, long considered the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the country. Perriello lost, but only by four points, even in his conservative district while running on an unapologetically progressive platform. Perhaps in a more favorable political climate, Perriello can run again and win. Despite two consecutive years of "corrections" among the Virginia electorate which swung a little too passionately for Democrats than its demographics suggested were sustainable back in 2006 and 2008, I still think the trendlines favor Democrats here with the DC suburbs constituting most of the state's growth.
Washington--Like the rest of the coastal states, Democrats made out well in Washington state, with Patty Murray narrowly prevailing over a top-tier challenge from Dino Rossi in the Senate race and two of the three endangered Democratic seats staying in Democratic hands. Only the marginal open seat vacated by Brian Baird turned over to the Republican. It was a sharp contrast to the last Republican wave in 1994 when Washington saw the most turnover of any state in the country, losing SIX Democratic-held House seats. Looking to the future, Washington is poised to gain a House seat next year, and it's one of the rare instances where the seat and those drawing it up are likely to be Democrats.
West Virginia--As good of an outcome as could be expected in a state as toxic to Democrats as this one is becoming. I was way off base when predicting John Raese
would consolidate the late-breaking vote. Apparently, Raese was considered a bridge too far even in the current political climate as the late-breaking vote instead went to Manchin. Of course it's a pyrrhic victory since Manchin will have to vote with the Republicans on virtually every issue between now and 2012 if he has any chance of holding his seat. And then, top-tier Republican Shelley Moore Capito could well decide to challenge him and really put his back against the wall. Meanwhile, a split decision in the West Virginia House races. Nick Rahall somehow managed to hold onto his seat comfortably while virtually all the Democrats surrounding him were getting taken out. And the Republican very narrowly captured the northern West Virginia seat, which I was ambivalent about since Democratic nominee Mike Oliverio would have probably made Bobby Bright seem liberal by comparison.
Wisconsin--I could sense an extremely ugly political climate in Wisconsin last summer driving through a number of 60% Obama counties in western Wisconsin and seeing all Republican signs in just about every yard. Even then, however, it was no sure thing that Russ Feingold was in as deep of trouble as he ended up being. I like to think a more aggressive Feingold campaign could have proven victorious against his nothing challenger, but honestly it probably just wasn't gonna happen for him no matter what he did in Wisconsin this year. As expected, the Republicans got a clean sweep in the Governor's office and both Houses of the legislature (good luck with improving the economy with that trifecta, Wisconsin) and taking out two Democratic seats in northern Wisconsin. The only survivor was Democrat Ron Kind in western Wisconsin, who I thought was also gonna get washed away in the tide. The only solace is that it's hard to imagine the state not improving a bit in the next election cycle after such a thorough Democratic beatdown this year.
Wyoming--Nothing to report here beyond the GOP handily taking over the Governor's mansion after eight years of inexplicable Democratic control in one of the nation's most Republican states.
The most telling consequence of last week's election results is that the struggling masses in Middle America are advocating dramatic steps be taken to fix our broken economy while simultaneously insisting on balancing the budget. Make the economy better....but don't you dare spend a penny doing so. We're entering a modern-day Know-Nothing era, and the consequences of this disinvestment will be evident very early as voters will be able to tell next year that the consequences of austerity and inflexible no-new-taxes mantras are inevitably paralysis. Government is the only engine capable of producing economic growth in the current climate, and voters just kneecapped it, putting their faith exclusively in the same private sector that brought the economy to the brink of ruin 24 months ago to single-handedly fix it, even though they have repeatedly shown they have zero interest in further investment in America amidst a world with decidedly more convenient options.
So it's gonna be an ugly two years and there's no way of knowing what the political fallout will be in 2012. Will the President's party continue to be blamed for what will inevitably be an economy in the same general condition as the current one? Or will voters realize that their 2010 remedy did more bad than good? To be continued...but it's hard to get too excited either way, particularly with Democrats already poised to fold on the no-brainer issue of not extending the Bush tax cuts for millionaires. As I said before, if Democrats won't fight even for that, then they deserve to lose.
But "not being as bad as I predicted" still qualifies this as nothing less than a crushing defeat. As I anticipated two years ago, the most damage was indeed done in state legislatures across the country, handing the GOP legislative majorities that will redistrict themselves a favorable map for the next decade. Just as was the case in 2000, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania stand out as the states where we're poised to get the least favorable district map. What passes for good news is that the Republicans controlled redistricting in all three states in 2001 as well so there isn't a lot more damage that can be done to us. Still, expect at least one Democrat to fall in all three states. Dennis Kucinich and Betty Sutton will probably be districted together in Ohio. Gary Peters and Sander Levin in Michigan. And probably Mark Critz districted into Tim Murphy's turf in Pennsylvania. Other Democrats are likely to be felled in a number of other states as well. It was a bad year to lose big, but there was no other outcome possible, which was evident two years ago.
Anyway, as always, as state-by-state analysis...
Alabama--It was obvious that there were gonna be some states where Democrats would be utterly vaporized on election night 2010 and Alabama was one of them. Dems lost both houses of the Alabama Legislature, and despite early October confidence that conservative Democrat Bobby Bright had inoculated himself against the charge of being one of those "lib'ruls" in Congress, the race broke late along party lines and Bright ended up losing 51-49. No great loss, but nonetheless frightening to see more turf permanently ceded to the other side as Bright's defeat assures in Montgomery, Alabama. More depressing is that Democrats ran the only gubernatorial candidate who could possibly win in Alabama (Ron Sparks) and he still got destroyed by double digits.
Alaska--Hard to get too excited about the likelihood that Lisa Murkowski is going back to the Senate, but her victory was nonetheless a rare moment of sanity from election season 2010 in the rejection of Tea Party wingnut and hypocrite Joe Miller. It was also nice to see Sarah Palin get embarrassed when her archrival overcame Palin's hand-picked candidate. Beyond that, Don Young who was expected to lose in 2008 won again handily while Palin's GOP successor Sean Parnell held the Governor's office. Across-the-board Republican year in Alaska, but the worst possible outcome of a Miller victory was likely averted.
Arizona--I don't have strong feelings either way on Arizona's new anti-immigration law, but the shocking level of incompetence displayed by Governor Jan Brewer in virtually all public appearances was frightening, particularly given that she was still re-elected by double digits. In the Congressional races, I never really felt as though Raul Grijalva would be taken out in his majority Hispanic district, but was surprised by how narrow his winning margin was. In the other four contested races, an October PPP poll suggesting Ben Quayle was trailing his Demcratic challenger proved fruitless and, as everyone expected, Democratic incumbents Ann Kirkpatrick and Harry Mitchell were felled. Kirkpatrick's seat seems winnable again in a better climate, but I can't see any other Democrat but Harry Mitchell ever winning AZ-05 again. The one pleasant surprise in Arizona is that attractive and charismatic Class of 2006 Democrat Gabrielle Giffords narrowly held on for her third term.
Arkansas--I had anticipated Arkansas would be an across-the-board killing fields for Democrats this year in much the way Georgia was for Democrats in 2002. As such, I expected popular Democratic Governor Mike Beebe would end up falling in the same way Roy Barnes did in Georgia eight years earlier. That certainly didn't happen as Beebe prevailed in all 75 Arkansas counties. In the House races, the open seats vacated by Democrats Marion Berry and Vic Snyder slipped away to the other side as expected, but Blue Dog Mike Ross held on by a surprisingly comfortable double-digit margin in southern Arkansas. The state's marquee race was the Senate race, of course, and that was over a year ago with Republican John Boozman laying waste to two-term Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln by more than 20 points, leaving Lincoln as the last incumbent Senator who lost by 20 points since George McGovern in 1980.
California--The state of California remains an impenetrable indigo blue fortress even in this most inhospitable political climate. Neither of the GOP candidates for Senate or Governor were particularly bad this year, although their political instincts were fairly mediocre and ultimately allowed Democrats to prevail. Jerry Brown now retakes ownership of the most thankless job in the country, one I'm not so sure Democrats should have really wanted to win. Barbara Boxer also won by a surprisingly lopsided margin and effectively consolidated the 2004 John Kerry coalition for a nine-point win. Just as impressive if not more so was the Democrats hanging onto every California House seat, even Jerry McNerney in his conservative-leaning Central Valley district. The combination of white liberals and Hispanics now look like an overwhelming coalition for Democrats in California elections, but the state's impending bankruptcy could change a lot of attitudes pretty quickly out there.
Colorado--Thanks to the GOP's nomination of horrible candidates for both the Governor and Senate races, the Democrats kept their Colorado winning streak alive for another election cycle. Good guy Democratic Senator Michael Bennet mercifully prevailed over noxious opponent Ken Buck while Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper prevailed in a complicated gubernatorial election where the Republican candidate barely got 10%. The House races were less accommodating to Democrats, however, as John Salazar and Betsy Markey both got ousted. Both districts continue to trend Democratic, however, and I suspect we may see them turn blue again in a less toxic cycle.
Connecticut--The northeast continued to be a blue sanctuary in 2010 despite legitimate Republican threats at every level. In the Senate race, Attorney General Dick Blumenthal's self-aggrandizement almost put his race at serious risk, but his long-standing popularity along with the GOP's nomination of WWE baroness Linda McMahon rather than moderate war hero Rob Simmons helped Blumenthal win handily. Two House districts held by Jim Himes and Chris Murphy appeared to be at risk in the closing weeks of the campaign, yet both prevailed. Himes' victory wasn't official until some late votes arrived from Bridgeport, which also sealed the deal for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dan Malloy, another Democrat whose long-held lead nearly slipped away in the closing weeks of the campaign. In the end, the Democrats couldn't have asked for a much better year in Connecticut in defiance of national trendlines.
Delaware--Perhaps the only state where Democrats had a better 2010 than Connecticut was Delaware where moderate Republican Mike Castle forfeited his safe House seat to run for the Senate, only to get hoodwinked in the primary by right-wing nutball Christine O'Donnell. Republicans also ran a Tea Party wingnut for Castle's old House race and the result was a double-digit margin of victory for Democrats in both races. Newly elected Senator Chris Coons is the luckiest man in politics this year and the unluckiest is perhaps Beau Biden, who passed on a Senate run believing he couldn't beat Mike Castle.
Florida--From the good to the very bad, Florida was a killing fields for Democrats this year, and candidates who verifiably belong in prison ended up winning. At the top of that list is new Governor Rick Scott, a corporate crook who plead the fifth dozens of times to crimes but managed to buy the seat with stolen cash, beating a very credible challenge from top-tier Democrat Alex Sink. One of the worst clusterfucks in recent history catapulted charismatic right-wing newcomer Marco Rubio into the Senate, although I highly doubt either Kendrick Meek or Charlie Crist could have beaten him in a two-person race. Dems lost four House seats to boot, three of which were predictable with Allen Boyd, Alan Grayson, and Suzanne Kosmas. The Democratic trendlines of the Orlando area make it likely we'll get Grayson's seat back with a less abrasive emissary. But the ultimate kick in the teeth from Florida voters in 2010 was the eight-point victory for Allen West over incumbent Ron Klein in Democratic-leaning Palm Beach County. I have no idea what the retired Jews of Boca Raton found so compelling about a candidate who rode with a criminal biker gang, said he had a higher security clearance than the President, and said he wanted to make it so his opponent was afraid to leave his home. West's victory stands out even now as one of the worst outcomes of an incredibly bad election night.
Georgia--A lot of crooks were elected to the highest levels of government last week...literally. In addition to Rick Scott in Florida, Nathan Deal of Georgia weathered about 10 different scandals that would have sunk just about any other candidate, but Deal prevailed by double digits because of one secret weapon....the (R) next to his name. Beyond that, Democrats lucked out by losing only one House seat, and that was of course Jim Marshall in central Georgia who was always living on borrowed time in his conservative district. On the plus side, despite an embarrassing scandal, Sanford Bishop held on by the barest of margins in his southwestern Georgia district. I'm hoping Bishop steps aside after this close call as his 44% black district is not one that Republicans have any right winning.
Hawaii--It's always hard to poll Hawaii so it wasn't clear until late that Democrats were gonna retake the governorship with Neil Abercrombie, which is a particular plus in Hawaii with two Democratic Senators older than 85 years old. Hawaii's love of incumbents led me to mistakenly believe that when Charles Djou prevailed in a three-candidate race in the special Congressional election last spring, it was his for life. Luckily, in one of their three pickups in the nation, Democrat Coleen Hanabusa was able to get the job done and beat Djou in November.
Idaho--The only contested race was one I knew was too good to be true for Democrats when Walt Minnick held a comfortable lead in his accidental House race right up until the last couple of weeks and the partisan tide of Idaho caught up to him. In the end, it wasn't even close. Minnick, who had led by about 10 points in most polls, ended up losing to Hispanic Republican Raul Labrador by nearly 10 points. What's amazing is that Minnick ever won this seat in the first place and held a lead in the polls for months.
Illinois--Every election year, no matter how massive the partisan wave, there's an incumbent Congressperson who survives despite everybody proclaiming him or her dead. This year, it wasn't a Congressman who rose from the dead to score a surprise win. It was Illinois Governor Pat Quinn, who inherited the seat when Rod Blagojevich and was expected to suffer for that connection by just about everybody. But Quinn narrowly survived. There were other Democratic gubernatorial candidates I would have preferred to see survive besides Quinn but it was nice to be able to hold one Midwestern statehouse this year as the region swung heavily to Republicans. Unfortunately, Democrats got mauled everywhere else in Illinois, managing to lose Obama's Senate seat to Republican Mark Kirk thanks to a perfect storm of lousy candidate selection and the shadow of scandal haunting the Dems, especially downstate. Meanwhile, Democrats lost four House seats, including a heavily Democratic seat in the Rock Island area that was drawn to specifically condense all the Democratic industrial cities of downstate Illinois, and including Melissa Bean's seat which nobody considered vulnerable. On top of that, Kirk's old House district in the northern suburbs of Chicago, which leans considerably blue, stayed in Republican hands by a 51-49 margin, denying Democrats one of the few expected pickups. So Quinn's unexpected victory notwithstanding, it was still a horrific year for Democrats in Illinois and one has to hope for a much more hospitable climate in 2012 with Barack Obama back on the ballot, positioning Democrats to win at least a couple of these seats back.
Indiana--Two consecutive good cycles for Democrats in traditionally Republican Indiana evened out last week as Democrats got mauled in Evan Bayh's old Senate seat with a candidate that appeared strong on paper, and also lost two Democratic-held House districts in southern Indiana that are gonna be very hard to get back. Joe Donnelly narrowly held on in his northern Indiana seat, but even that is a pyrrhic victory since his district is likely to be merged with IN-01 in redistricting. It wasn't realistic that we would hold conservative Indiana, but here we are right back to where we were in 2004 in the state.
Iowa--Another Midwestern bloodbath with unjustifiably popular former Governor-for-life Terry Branstad defeating incumbent Democrat Chet Culver and scoring an unprecedented fifth term, bringing along a Republican supermajority in the Iowa state House and a reduced Democratic majority in the state Senate with him. The only good news that came out of this carnage is that all three Congressional Democrats, endangered to various degrees, narrowly prevailed even with Republicans dominant at the top of the ticket. On the other hand, it's a certain bet that with Iowa losing one of their House seats, next year, one of the three Democrats will be extinguished.
Kansas--Not much to say here. A state that's always been red becomes monolithically so this cycle, with a new hard-right Republican Governor and Dennis Moore's old House seat picked up by a Republican.
Kentucky--There was no way Jack Conway was gonna beat Rand Paul in Kentucky this year, but the tacky Aqua Buddha ad predictably backfired and turned what may have been a close race into a double-digit Paul blowout, nearly taking down Democratic Congressman Ben Chandler in the firestorm. Something tells me a lot of voters could find themselves with buyers' remorse thanks to the incessant grandstanding that Paul can expected to put on once he becomes a Senator. Whatever the case, we're stuck with him for six years.
Louisiana--My gut said Charlie Melancon's well-run campaign would ultimately bring him to within single digits of David Vitter, but it wasn't meant to be as Vitter prevailed by almost 20 points despite all of his considerable warts and the fact that he barely even campaigned. Beyond that, an even swap of House races as Charlie Melancon's seat went easily to the GOP while a Democrat had no trouble winning back the New Orleans-based LA-02 that Republican Joseph Cao picked up in a perfect storm special election.
Maine--The state of Maine took a hard right turn at the state level, with a three-way gubernatorial race allowing a Tea Party wingnut to prevail with a plurality, Minnesota-style. Beyond that, both houses of the Maine legislature swung to the Republicans, creating a perilous situation for progressives in that state for at least the next two years. The good news was that both nominally endangered Democratic Congresspersons from Maine prevailed fairly handily.
Maryland--In one of the most Democratic states in the country, little changed with easy re-elections for Senator Barbara Mikulski and Governor Martin O'Malley. The only loss was accidental Democratic Congressman Frank Kratovil from the state's Eastern Shore who picked up a seat in a perfect storm in 2008 and was never gonna hold the seat under normal electoral conditions, let alone the 2010 GOP tsunami.
Massachusetts--I was very surprised by how well Democrats did this year in Massachusetts, expecting the Scott Brown phenomenon to continue along with the general softening of Democratic strength in the state. Instead, three potentially endangered Democratic incumbents all prevailed handily and even the open seat in the state's least Democratic district stayed in Democratic hands. On top of that, Governor Deval Patrick prevailed by a comfortable margin in a race that was no sure thing for him. It's definitely nice that there are a few bastions of Democratic strength that can generally withstand even a Category 5 hurricane.
Michigan--With the combination of Michigan's rotten economy overseen exclusively by Democrats currently in control of Congress and Michigan state government, it was pretty obvious that it would be an ugly year for Democrats in the state. And it was. As expected, Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Snyder won in a landslide, and his coattails produced GOP supermajorities in both houses of the legislature as well. What a kick in the teeth that the same Republican Party that wanted to let the Detroit automakers be vaporized just two years ago is now rewarded by the state's voters. How quickly we forget. Despite some promising late poll numbers, Democrat Mark Schauer was taken out by the GOP tide. I was a little surprised that Gary Peters was able to hang on in Oakland County, but as I said, his seat is likely to be merged with MI-12 after the Republican gerrymander, so two years is probably all Peters has left. Very rough year for Michigan to go crimson red.
Minnesota--It was a mixed night in Minnesota. It looks like we'll have a Democrat Governor in Mark Dayton, but after the DFL supermajorities became Republican majorities, Dayton's not gonna have much to work with. Minnesota's legislative districts are very competitive so with any kind of partisan wind a whole pit of seats change hands. But even I didn't see this big of a GOP wave in the legislature. I was surprised on the other hand that Democrats were able to hold all three constitutional offices (Secretary of State, Auditor, Attorney General) even with the weakness at the top of the ticket. Southern Minnesota Democratic Congressman Tim Walz held on fairly comfortable, but regrettably one of the smartest and most effective Congressmen in the country, Jim Oberstar, was caught flat-footed at the worst possible time and his charismatic challenger managed to slay the dragon in an election that became a referendum on Oberstar's decadeslong tenure in Congress. Much as I hate to say it, I saw this coming back in the summer. It's not at all certain this seat is gonna be a cinch to win back either as the parts of MN-08 that are growing are comfortably Republican. While Minnesota's overall trajectory still makes it more accommodating for Democrats than Republicans, it's halcyon days as one of the nation's most Democratic states is over.
Mississippi--Reality finally caught up with two conservative Democratic Congressman who had been winning in districts where they had no business winning given their significant GOP lean. Gene Taylor is no real loss as far as I'm concerned, but Travis Childers was an excellent politician who seemed to fit his district very well and had the potential to be a rising star. We're unlikely to see the kind of perfect storm that will make him electable in Mississippi again the way he was in 2008.
Missouri--A state that's been getting progressively redder for a generation now took another giant leap that direction last week, where even the very poor Republican Senate candidate Roy Blunt crushed his Democratic challenger by 13 points in an open seat. In the U.S. House, long-time red district Democrat Ike Skelton was voted out in a seat that we'll never get back while Democrat Russ Carnahan barely hung on even in a traditionally Democratic seat on the south side of St. Louis. And Carnahan's seat seems likely to be eliminated if Missouri loses a seat after reapportionment, which they're poised to do. So yeah....bad situation in Missouri.
Montana--Of all 50 states, one of the least eventful was Montana which had no Senate or gubernatorial races this year, nor any competitive House races. There's effectively nothing that can be said about election night 2010 in Montana.
Nebraska--Not much can be said about Nebraska either. There was some optimistic chatter about taking out Republican Congressman Lee Terry in the Omaha area, but it never materialized and Terry won re-election big-time along with every other Republican on the ballot in Nebraska.
Nevada--The marquee Senate race in the nation turned out to be an unexpected pleasant surprise for Democrats. Not only did Harry Reid beat back the most delusional Tea Partier of all, he beat Sharron Angle by five points and got more than 50% of the vote, which nobody believed would happen. Even though I predicted Angle would win along with just about everybody else, I always kept in the back of my mind that Democrats have overperformed expectations and polling data in Nevada in the last five Presidential elections. Latino voters and union activists were pivotal in Reid's amazing comeback, and Reid has to be credited with running a fantastic campaign. He said last year he would "vaporize" his opponent in the 2010 midterm, and against all odds, he did just that. Son Rory Reid didn't fare as well in the gubernatorial race, but even he performed several points better than the polls suggested. Meanwhile, Harry Reid's coattails weren't quite enough to save Dina Titus in NV-03, but with Nevada adding a fourth Congressional seat next year, it's a likely bet the new seat will be Democratic majority and potentially allow Titus back into a safer seat. All in all, a bright spot for the Democrats, particularly with Nevada being one of the fastest growing states in the country.
New Hampshire--From a bright spot to a very dark spot, all the gains the Democrats made in New Hampshire in 2006 and 2008 were wiped out and then some last week. Against the grain of the rest of the northeast which mostly held strong for Democrats, New Hampshire saw the most widespread turnover to the Republicans, even though once invincible Democratic Governor John Lynch did hold on. Beyond that, Republican Kelly Ayotte crushed Paul Hodes by more than 20 points in a Senate race once considered competitive. Meanwhile, Hodes' old House seat went back to Republican hands in a race the Democrats thought they had a good chance of holding given the district's Democratic trendline. In the more conservative NH-01 district, Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter was ousted. But the most damage was done in the legislature where Republicans gained more than 100 seats in the 400-seat state House and somehow flipped a Democratic state Senate to a 19-6 Republican majority. Astounding. It always seemed that New Hampshire's swing to the Democrats was predicated more on distaste for the excesses of the Bush era than any real movement to the left. Particularly with the state's population centers in the southeast solidifying for Republicans, it looks like New Hampshire has reverted back to form.
New Jersey--The damage was done in New Jersey in 2009 with the election of middle class-destroying GOP gubernatorial hero Chris Christie. This year, the Democrats managed to hold back that GOP momentum for the most part. Democratic freshman Congressman John Adler in a marginal South Jersey district was taken out, but the other House races considered nominally competitive remained in Democratic hands.
New Mexico--A mixed night in New Mexico and a partial correction following the Democratic tsunami of 2008 which flipped the state's entire Congressional delegation to Democrats. This year, a Hispanic Republican woman won picked up the Governor's seat for the GOP, albeit with a smaller than expected margin. Meanwhile, the two competitive House races had a split decision with Albuquerque-area Congressman Martin Heinrich hanging on but southern New Mexico's Harry Teague getting taken out by former GOP Congressman Steve Pearce. The fact that Teague kept it relatively close even in the state's most conservative district which John McCain won was comforting, and suggests that the growing Latino vote being largely consolidated by Democrats means the party's future in New Mexico is bright.
New York--Ultimately a very bad night for Democrats. Sure, Democratic incumbent Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand won in 20-point landslides as did Andrew Cuomo in the gubernatorial race, but it now appears we lost SEVEN House races in New York. Some were predictable, including Mike Arcuri, John Hall, and Eric Massa's old seat, but even I thought Tim Bishop and Dan Maffei were odds-on for re-election until late-breaking developments showed Republicans with the whip hand in both as-yet-uncalled races. Meanwhile, Scott Murphy and Michael McMahon somehow failed to hold onto their huge leads, in Murphy's case losing by double digits. Kind of amazing that the one Democrat who held on was Bill Owens in the very marginal NY-23 seat and arguably the most vulnerable incumbent of all in New York. Also amazing that Cuomo, Schumer, and Gillibrand had zero coattails to save some of these guys. Given that New York is poised to lose at least one more House seat, one of these Republican freshmen is likely to be felled, while a couple others (like Maffei's current seat in NY-25) are odds-on to go blue again. But still, a pretty pathetic showing.
North Carolina--From a short-term perspective, Democrats didn't have a terrible night in North Carolina. It was obvious months ago that Democrats were gonna be crushed in the Senate race, but the 12-point defeat handed to weak Democratic nominee Elaine Marshall was actually less severe than was the battleground Senate race in Missouri. Better yet, of the four Democratic Congressmen who were considered endangered to some degree, three survived. The only casualty was Bob Etheridge, who barely lost even after an ugly outburst with a voter caught on tape. Now for the long-term bad news. Republicans won both houses of the North Carolina legislature and Democratic Governor Bev Perdue can't veto their redistricting plan. This is particularly consequential in North Carolina because the Democrats drew up a very effective gerrymander in 2000 and a less friendly map could easily wipe out two Democrats in 2012. The trendlines in North Carolina remain favorable for Democrats, but this is a huge setback.
North Dakota--The all-Democratic Congressional delegation in this Republican stronghold was always living on borrowed time, and the time officially expired last week when Byron Dorgan's seat went to Republican John Hoeven and Earl Pomeroy got trounced by 10 points in the state's at-large Congressional seat. Pomeroy was as good of a Democrat as you're ever gonna get out of North Dakota and in the current polarized climate perhaps the only one who could ever win there. At this point, I'd wager against a comeback in 2012 or less hostile future election cycles, unfortunately.
Ohio--One of the night's predictable but nonetheless brutal wipeouts. It was encouraging to see Governor Ted Strickland's 11th hour comeback given what was at stake in holding Ohio's governorship. It also put to the test whether the arithmatic would still hold up that the previous generation's "inverted C" Ohio county map producing Democratic victories from Toledo and Cleveland in the north to Youngstown in the east to Steubenville and Portsmouth in the south would still be enough to win. The answer was no as Ted Strickland won that baseline and even did better than I expected in John Kasich's Columbus home base, but still lost by more than 100,000 votes. Worse yet, Strickland's base in southern Ohio provided no coattails for Democratic Congressional incumbents Zack Space and Charlie Wilson, who both lost by comfortable margins along with the predictable defeats of marginal Democratic incumbent freshmen Steve Dreihaus, Mary Jo Kilroy, and John Boccieri. And on top of that, Bush's former outsourcing czar managed to convince Ohioans to give him a promotion to the Senate so he can continue his work of exporting what's left of their jobs overseas. As bad as the night was in Ohio, it's still not fully clear what the state's trendlines are. If Columbus, the only part of Ohio that is growing, continues to get bluer, things not be as bad as they look today. On the other hand, the state is poised to lose two Congressional seats next year. One of them is likely to be Betty Sutton's in northern Ohio while the other is likely to be one of the two freshman Republican in southern Ohio. The merging of those southern Ohio districts will make it harder for Democrats to win the current configuration of OH-06 back.
Oklahoma--With only token Democratic opposition in one of the nation's most conservative states, Republicans Tom Coburn and Mary Fallin easily dominated their respective Senate and gubernatorial races, while the Boren name continues to allow Dan Boren the ability to keep getting re-electing in his reddening-by-the-day eastern Oklahoma district.
Oregon--Another Democratic success story, with both endangered Democratic Congressional candidates prevailing and with Governor John Kitzhaber narrowly beating back a strong challenge from Republican Chris Dudley. Not encouraging, however, that the Democrats were only able to avoid calamity in the northeast and west coast in 2010 while the rest of the country swung hard right. But at least the tsunami didn't hit the coasts, as ironic as that analogy may be.
Pennsylvania--Another horrible state for Democrats. With as much ink has been given to Joe Sestak's would-be comeback falling just short in the Senate race, what's most telling is that the Philadelphia machine cranked out just about every last vote possible and it still wasn't enough for Sestak as the exurban enclaves that were pushing Pennsylvania deep into Democratic hands reverted back to GOP form for Toomey. Much like Portman in Ohio, country club Republican Toomey is not a natural fit for Pennsylvania and passionately advocates for policies that will destroy the state, but we're stuck with him for six years nonetheless. Five Democratic seats swung to the GOP, and only one of them (Sestak's old seat) seems ripe for winning back in a more favorable cycle. Worse yet, two conservative Democrats in southwestern Pennsylvania considered reasonably safe eked out scant 51-49 margins, underscoring how deep of trouble the Democrats are in that part of the state. And one of those seats is almost certain to be eliminated in the redistricting, which will of course be overseen by the state's Republican legislature and newly elected Republican Governor. Basically, another Middle American swing state, another doomsday election night outcome last week.
Rhode Island--Democratic gubernatorial candidate Frank Caprio's angry outburst probably saved the state from going Republican, as so many of Caprio's voters swung to left-of-center independent Lincoln Chafee and kept the left's vote from being so divided that Robatellie won. Meanwhile, Patrick Kennedy's old House seat stayed Democrat, after a brief scare, and Jim Langevin held onto his seat. A generally good night for Democrats in Rhode Island.
South Carolina--I was taken aback by how modest Nikki Haley's margin of victory was, and find it fascinating how blue a South Carolina county map can be and still produce a Republican victory, contrary to most states where the opposite is true. Also kind of amusing that the Democrats worst candidate in the country, Alvin Greene, still managed to win the majority black counties in the Senate race. The state has become a virtually impenetrable GOP fortress and Democratic Congressman John Spratt, who had successfully lived on borrowed time for decades, was finally taken out. Like Fritz Hollings before him, we're losing a genuinely left-of-center Southern Democrat and we'll never get someone that good again. The one possible upside is that South Carolina is gaining a House district and there's a decent possibility it will be another majority minority seat protected by the Voting Rights Act and conceivably giving the state a second Democrat in the House.
South Dakota--I love close elections in South Dakota and was feverishly tracking on election night the contest between two attractive female candidates in the state's at-large House race. Despite the majority of polls showing Democratic incumbent Stephanie Herseth Sandlin narrowly leading, I had my doubts. But as the returns rolled in, it was looking like Herseth Sandlin's baseline numbers were coming in favorable enough to produce a narrow victory for her. She was doing a little bit better in key counties than did Tim Johnson in 2002, and Johnson won. It must simply have been a matter of higher voter turnout in Republican counties because Republican Kristi Noem took her over when the western SD precincts rolled in and in the end won reasonably comfortably. Very low turnout on the reservations wasn't helpful to Herseth Sandlin, but even 2004-level turnouts on the reservations wouldn't have been enough for her. Sad to see this seat go red, and one has to believe the Democrats are kicking themselves a little for not putting up a challenger to John Thune in the hope of raising turnout a little. Tim Johnson definitely lucked out in not having to run this year because it would likely have been his Waterloo.
Tennessee--A really terrible year in Tennessee was inevitable this year, and lived up to expectations entirely with a 20-point GOP blowout in the gubernatorial election and three of the Democrats five House seats flipping to the GOP. TN-06 and TN-08 were predictable, but it was only in the final weeks that Lincoln Davis' seat started looking increasingly vulnerable, ironically only weeks after a New York Times story highlighting how Davis looked like he was gonna weather the storm. In the end, Davis not only lost, but earned the distinction of being the House Democrat who lost by the widest margin in an 18-point blowout. And if there was any hope of Democrats winning these seats back, the upcoming GOP-dominated gerrymander should render all of them unwinnable, enshrining a permanent 7-2 GOP House majority in Tennessee, a state rivaled only by Oklahoma in how inhospitable it's become for Democrats in the last decade.
Texas--Even in a year like 2006, I would have bet against Houston Mayor Bill White taking out incumbent Rick Perry in Texas. The fact that so many Democrats were so bullish about the prospect of beating Perry in a year like 2010 was laughable, particularly with Texas' oil-inflated economy standing tall among its peers. The turmoil downballot is a bigger problem. It was clear in 2008 that Chet Edwards was gonna have a tough time hanging on in his brutally conservative central Texas district, but his double-digit thumping was nonetheless eye-opening. And low voter turnout in Hispanic districts, always a problem, managed to unseat Democrat Solomon Ortiz. That seat should be pretty easy to win back, but the same can't be said for Ciro Rodriguez' more conservative southwestern Texas seat. With Texas poised to gain four seats, it's a good bet that the Voting Rights Act will generate an even split of two Democratic seats and two Republicans. Plus it's possible the district lines won't be as toxic as they current are after Tom Delay's 2003 gerrymander.
Utah--The only thing worth reporting here is that Democrat Jim Matheson held on reasonably comfortably even in his red district, one of the few Blue Dogs to do so. It'll be interesting to see what kind of map the Republicans draw for Matheson heading into 2012. With Utah gaining a seat, it's possible they could go easy on Matheson in favor of shoring up three solid Republican seats. Also likely to be intriguing is seeing whether Utah's unique primary nominating process will result in the ouster of Senate institution Orrin Hatch on the grounds that he's insufficiently far-right. My guess is he's going down in favor of a Tea Party wingnut who vows that, unlike Hatch, he will never work with those disgusting Democrats on a single issue.
Vermont--Only one high profile race in Vermont and it was the gubernatorial race, which broke in the very end for the Democrat. Once again, the northeast holds strong for Democrats as the rest of the country swing the other direction.
Virginia--A year every bit as bad as predicted with no high-profile races at the top of the ballot providing coattails. Democrat Gerry Connolly held on by the skin of his teeth in his suburban DC district, but beyond that, three other Democrats lost their seats and the Democrats are stuck at the same place they were in 2006 with an 8-3 Republican map. I had a hard time believing Democrat Rick Boucher in the state's most conservative district was gonna hold on after his cap-and-trade vote, and sure enough, even after months of leads in the polls, the race broke late and broke hard for his Republican challenger. Crazy that Boucher ended up losing by as much as Tom Perriello in central Virginia, long considered the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the country. Perriello lost, but only by four points, even in his conservative district while running on an unapologetically progressive platform. Perhaps in a more favorable political climate, Perriello can run again and win. Despite two consecutive years of "corrections" among the Virginia electorate which swung a little too passionately for Democrats than its demographics suggested were sustainable back in 2006 and 2008, I still think the trendlines favor Democrats here with the DC suburbs constituting most of the state's growth.
Washington--Like the rest of the coastal states, Democrats made out well in Washington state, with Patty Murray narrowly prevailing over a top-tier challenge from Dino Rossi in the Senate race and two of the three endangered Democratic seats staying in Democratic hands. Only the marginal open seat vacated by Brian Baird turned over to the Republican. It was a sharp contrast to the last Republican wave in 1994 when Washington saw the most turnover of any state in the country, losing SIX Democratic-held House seats. Looking to the future, Washington is poised to gain a House seat next year, and it's one of the rare instances where the seat and those drawing it up are likely to be Democrats.
West Virginia--As good of an outcome as could be expected in a state as toxic to Democrats as this one is becoming. I was way off base when predicting John Raese
would consolidate the late-breaking vote. Apparently, Raese was considered a bridge too far even in the current political climate as the late-breaking vote instead went to Manchin. Of course it's a pyrrhic victory since Manchin will have to vote with the Republicans on virtually every issue between now and 2012 if he has any chance of holding his seat. And then, top-tier Republican Shelley Moore Capito could well decide to challenge him and really put his back against the wall. Meanwhile, a split decision in the West Virginia House races. Nick Rahall somehow managed to hold onto his seat comfortably while virtually all the Democrats surrounding him were getting taken out. And the Republican very narrowly captured the northern West Virginia seat, which I was ambivalent about since Democratic nominee Mike Oliverio would have probably made Bobby Bright seem liberal by comparison.
Wisconsin--I could sense an extremely ugly political climate in Wisconsin last summer driving through a number of 60% Obama counties in western Wisconsin and seeing all Republican signs in just about every yard. Even then, however, it was no sure thing that Russ Feingold was in as deep of trouble as he ended up being. I like to think a more aggressive Feingold campaign could have proven victorious against his nothing challenger, but honestly it probably just wasn't gonna happen for him no matter what he did in Wisconsin this year. As expected, the Republicans got a clean sweep in the Governor's office and both Houses of the legislature (good luck with improving the economy with that trifecta, Wisconsin) and taking out two Democratic seats in northern Wisconsin. The only survivor was Democrat Ron Kind in western Wisconsin, who I thought was also gonna get washed away in the tide. The only solace is that it's hard to imagine the state not improving a bit in the next election cycle after such a thorough Democratic beatdown this year.
Wyoming--Nothing to report here beyond the GOP handily taking over the Governor's mansion after eight years of inexplicable Democratic control in one of the nation's most Republican states.
The most telling consequence of last week's election results is that the struggling masses in Middle America are advocating dramatic steps be taken to fix our broken economy while simultaneously insisting on balancing the budget. Make the economy better....but don't you dare spend a penny doing so. We're entering a modern-day Know-Nothing era, and the consequences of this disinvestment will be evident very early as voters will be able to tell next year that the consequences of austerity and inflexible no-new-taxes mantras are inevitably paralysis. Government is the only engine capable of producing economic growth in the current climate, and voters just kneecapped it, putting their faith exclusively in the same private sector that brought the economy to the brink of ruin 24 months ago to single-handedly fix it, even though they have repeatedly shown they have zero interest in further investment in America amidst a world with decidedly more convenient options.
So it's gonna be an ugly two years and there's no way of knowing what the political fallout will be in 2012. Will the President's party continue to be blamed for what will inevitably be an economy in the same general condition as the current one? Or will voters realize that their 2010 remedy did more bad than good? To be continued...but it's hard to get too excited either way, particularly with Democrats already poised to fold on the no-brainer issue of not extending the Bush tax cuts for millionaires. As I said before, if Democrats won't fight even for that, then they deserve to lose.
posted by Mark at 1:23 PM
2 Comments:
The California races turned out fairly close to what I predicted, and I am not surprised that California Democrats did as well as they did, even picking off an open GOP-held seat in the Assembly. Even the Republicans' best hopes for a pickup in a statewide office, the open Attorney General seat, has turned out to be 50-50 when it should have been a comfortable win for the Republican. This race featured a North-South race that pitted the Democratic DA of San Francisco, Kamala Harris, against the Republican DA of L.A., Steve Cooley.
If I was not such an elections geek, I would have never guessed Cooley was a Republican. He distanced himself from his party, which has become less popular than the flu in California thanks to Pete Wilson, George Bush, and Arnold Schwarzenegger. He also has had the audacity to stand up to popular opinion on issues such as Three Strikes and Jessica's Law, which allowed him to win three times in the deep blue vote reservoir of L.A. County. Add in Harris' recommending life in prison for a cop-killer instead of the death penalty (one of the very few issues Californians are still conservative on), and you have what will probably be the last competitive statewide race in California for a very long time. While most were predicting a comfortable Cooley win, I stood out in thinking that Harris was seriously still in this thing on the grounds of California's partisan leanings alone, and appear to be right. After trailing for most of the week thanks to big Cooley counties such as Orange and San Diego dumping a lot of votes out for all to see, Harris now leads by about 5,000 votes with under a million votes still to be counted, more from counties that favor her than from counties that favor Cooley.
The races for Treasurer and Controller produced incredible results. Controller Chiang won an incredible 42 of 58 counties, including some that had been solidly Republican all across the board forever: Amador, Calaveras, Del Norte, El Dorado, Lassen (incredible, considering that presidentially this is the second-most Republican county after Modoc), Placer (also incredible), Plumas, Sierra, Tuolumne, and Yuba. He only didn't do better in SoCal because his opponent, Tony Strickland, was from Ventura County. Treasurer Lockyer also performed incredibly, winning somewhat similarly to the way Obama won. He won 34 counties but dominated in SoCal outside OC (also not surprising considering his opponent is from there).
And like many California Democrats, I am beyond relieved that Jerry Brown is back in the governorship rather than Queen Meg (who can now go back to creating the jobs she says rich people like herself are sooooo great at doing). I won't have to worry about Brown making stops all over the country for a presidential bid in 2012 or 2016 while a major wildfire or earthquake strikes. With no more plans to seek higher office, Brown now only has his legacy at stake. And with the insane 2/3 requirement for passing budgets gone (thank you, Prop 25!), it will be a little easier to pass budgets without Republican input.
And I am not concerned about voters' attitudes changing rather quickly and another recall circus happening, after the result of the circus 7 years ago did such a bang-up job. (Jerry Brown is no Gray Davis, that's for sure!) Now said governor is leaving office with approval ratings in the teens. It seems that after Bush and Arnold, Californians are less likely to swing from one party to the other, unlike in the Midwest and parts of the East. So no matter what happens in the state government, I expect California to only become bluer for the foreseeable future, and overtake Massachusetts or Rhode Island as the most Democratic state.
It was a bad year to lose big. The only big state where Democrats will control redistricting is Illinois, where they can probably draw five Repubicans out of their seats in order to make up for likely losses in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and North Carolina. I suspect Democrats will also draw Andy Harris out of his seat in Maryland to offset what Republicans will probably do to Donnelly in Indiana.
Had McCain been elected, Democrats probably would have kept a say in the process in Ohio and Michigan and kept control of the process in Minnesota, Colorado, North Carolina and New York.
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