Sandy Could Change Everything

Never in my lifetime has the run-up to a Presidential election been shaken up the way that it has this year with the arrival of Hurricane Sandy right in the heart of the nation's most densely populated corner eight days before the election.  The storm is now over and the damage is being assessed, with the Presidential campaign becoming a secondary to the point that the way the two candidates are carrying themselves will go largely unnoticed by the low-information voters who are still persuadable.  It's uncharted and treacherous territory for both candidates, with Obama having to appear Presidential while not overplaying his hand and trying to time his return to the campaign trail in a way that doesn't appear craven.  Mitt Romney's challenge is perhaps more significant as he can't afford to let Obama hog the spotlight with Presidential moments, yet also needs to avoid exploiting the situation. 

At least thus far, Obama is winning the PR war, such as there is one, getting praised by New Jersey's Republican Governor for his assistance and heading to the hardest-hit areas on Wednesday to survey the damage.  Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has been feigning a "food drive for storm victims" as a thinly veiled replacement for an Ohio rally, complete with John McCain trash-talking Obama about Benghazi at the rally, er, food drive.  Worse yet, the Red Cross is turning down the food donations on the grounds that they have more than enough, adding that what they really need is cash.  It's unlikely any of this will break though outside of cable news viewers who are typically committed partisans already, much to the chagrin of Democrats hoping that Obama will be rewarded for strong leadership in the face of disaster while Romney will be penalized for looking foolish trying to remain relevant.  It's possible this could happen, but it seems unlikely.

The more likely scenario is that the storm negatively impacts Obama, primarily for the simple reason that the storm is disproportionately ravaging blue states.  None of the swing states appears likely to be hit particularly hard by storm, with the possible exception of Virginia, so perhaps the impact on the Electoral College will be minimal, but enthusiasm for voting will absolutely crater for millions of Americans besieged by substantial storm damage and suffering through days without electricity.  It's not out of the realm of possibility that because disproportionately Democratic areas of Pennsylvania were hit by the storm that Romney could score an upset.  The math would be more complicated for that in New Jersey and Connecticut, but not completely outside the realm of possibilities.  Several Senate races could be even more complicated in some of the same states, with Chris Murphy of Connecticut potentially the Democrat most challenged in that scenario. 

Perhaps the soggy mess will be cleaned up earlier than expected.  Perhaps power will be restored to just about everybody before next Tuesday.  Perhaps there will be alternatives to same-day voting in all the states affected.  Maybe.  But despite what MSNBC tells us, I see far more downside for Obama and his party from the fallout of this storm than I do upside.  Cranky and devastated incumbents are not known for validating incumbents.

Nailbiter to the Finish Line

My what a difference three weeks made.  Rarely in my life have I ever been "confident" about anything because "confidence" is a one-way path to having egg all over one's face, but I must confess that at the end of September I was having a very hard time believing Romney had a path to victory.  In retrospect, I underestimated the extend to which Romney had nowhere to go but up simply by showing up at that first debate and offering a credible prosecution of Obama's record, however cynically.  However, Romney got an added bonus in that Obama turned in the worst debate performance since Admiral Jim Stockdale in the 1992 Vice-Presidential debate.  I could barely sleep after watching that first debate, because I knew the race had just been fundamentally reshaped.

And yes, Obama went on to have a great second debate, spanking Romney both substantively and tactically, but the damage was done.  While Romney stumbled a couple minor times in that second debate, he's already elevated himself in the minds of large swaths of independent voters and, more troublingly, even after the second debate Romney has solidified his surreal advantage on who is best positioned to grow the economy.  When coupling that observation with the corresponding metric that Obama leads decisively on which candidate will help the middle class, it's pretty clear that we are dealing with an extremely immature slice of the electorate that will be deciding the outcome of this election.  And that makes the outcome infuriatingly unpredictable.

Going into this weekend, I clung to the premise that Obama has the barest of advantages in the Electoral College given that his base states plus Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada is all Obama needs to eke out a victory.  This morning I'm not sure as I just feel another inexplicable momentum shift towards Romney is underway, validated by a PPP poll released just minutes ago showing Obama's lead dropping from 5 points to just 1 point since last week.  PPP has been releasing some extremely conservative samples in polls the last couple of days, to the right of the national averages in these states, but I still have a sinking feeling things are starting to go poorly.  Much depends on Monday night's third and final debate, and while I'd be feeling decent about that one given that it's on foreign policy where the Obama administration has a treasure trove of accomplishments, he will be on defense based on this muddled timeline of events at Benghazi.  I'm not inclined to believe Benghazi will swing the election, but it nonetheless puts Obama in an awkward defensive position and I never underestimate voters' ability to be distracted by the latest shiny object put in front of his face.

Despite the recent shift of momentum, my prediction last month of Obama winning 303-235 still seems plausible.  Virginia has moved away from Obama and is probably the weakest link of that 303 electoral vote coalition right now, but if the election does go the course of 2004 where Bush overperformed the final polls and won by three points, Obama will do the same and ultimately win Virginia narrowly.  Am I "confident" about that?  Not at all, but for better or worse, I'm going down with the ship on those predictions.