Nailbiter to the Finish Line
My what a difference three weeks made. Rarely in my life have I ever been "confident" about anything because "confidence" is a one-way path to having egg all over one's face, but I must confess that at the end of September I was having a very hard time believing Romney had a path to victory. In retrospect, I underestimated the extend to which Romney had nowhere to go but up simply by showing up at that first debate and offering a credible prosecution of Obama's record, however cynically. However, Romney got an added bonus in that Obama turned in the worst debate performance since Admiral Jim Stockdale in the 1992 Vice-Presidential debate. I could barely sleep after watching that first debate, because I knew the race had just been fundamentally reshaped.
And yes, Obama went on to have a great second debate, spanking Romney both substantively and tactically, but the damage was done. While Romney stumbled a couple minor times in that second debate, he's already elevated himself in the minds of large swaths of independent voters and, more troublingly, even after the second debate Romney has solidified his surreal advantage on who is best positioned to grow the economy. When coupling that observation with the corresponding metric that Obama leads decisively on which candidate will help the middle class, it's pretty clear that we are dealing with an extremely immature slice of the electorate that will be deciding the outcome of this election. And that makes the outcome infuriatingly unpredictable.
Going into this weekend, I clung to the premise that Obama has the barest of advantages in the Electoral College given that his base states plus Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada is all Obama needs to eke out a victory. This morning I'm not sure as I just feel another inexplicable momentum shift towards Romney is underway, validated by a PPP poll released just minutes ago showing Obama's lead dropping from 5 points to just 1 point since last week. PPP has been releasing some extremely conservative samples in polls the last couple of days, to the right of the national averages in these states, but I still have a sinking feeling things are starting to go poorly. Much depends on Monday night's third and final debate, and while I'd be feeling decent about that one given that it's on foreign policy where the Obama administration has a treasure trove of accomplishments, he will be on defense based on this muddled timeline of events at Benghazi. I'm not inclined to believe Benghazi will swing the election, but it nonetheless puts Obama in an awkward defensive position and I never underestimate voters' ability to be distracted by the latest shiny object put in front of his face.
Despite the recent shift of momentum, my prediction last month of Obama winning 303-235 still seems plausible. Virginia has moved away from Obama and is probably the weakest link of that 303 electoral vote coalition right now, but if the election does go the course of 2004 where Bush overperformed the final polls and won by three points, Obama will do the same and ultimately win Virginia narrowly. Am I "confident" about that? Not at all, but for better or worse, I'm going down with the ship on those predictions.
And yes, Obama went on to have a great second debate, spanking Romney both substantively and tactically, but the damage was done. While Romney stumbled a couple minor times in that second debate, he's already elevated himself in the minds of large swaths of independent voters and, more troublingly, even after the second debate Romney has solidified his surreal advantage on who is best positioned to grow the economy. When coupling that observation with the corresponding metric that Obama leads decisively on which candidate will help the middle class, it's pretty clear that we are dealing with an extremely immature slice of the electorate that will be deciding the outcome of this election. And that makes the outcome infuriatingly unpredictable.
Going into this weekend, I clung to the premise that Obama has the barest of advantages in the Electoral College given that his base states plus Ohio, Wisconsin, and Nevada is all Obama needs to eke out a victory. This morning I'm not sure as I just feel another inexplicable momentum shift towards Romney is underway, validated by a PPP poll released just minutes ago showing Obama's lead dropping from 5 points to just 1 point since last week. PPP has been releasing some extremely conservative samples in polls the last couple of days, to the right of the national averages in these states, but I still have a sinking feeling things are starting to go poorly. Much depends on Monday night's third and final debate, and while I'd be feeling decent about that one given that it's on foreign policy where the Obama administration has a treasure trove of accomplishments, he will be on defense based on this muddled timeline of events at Benghazi. I'm not inclined to believe Benghazi will swing the election, but it nonetheless puts Obama in an awkward defensive position and I never underestimate voters' ability to be distracted by the latest shiny object put in front of his face.
Despite the recent shift of momentum, my prediction last month of Obama winning 303-235 still seems plausible. Virginia has moved away from Obama and is probably the weakest link of that 303 electoral vote coalition right now, but if the election does go the course of 2004 where Bush overperformed the final polls and won by three points, Obama will do the same and ultimately win Virginia narrowly. Am I "confident" about that? Not at all, but for better or worse, I'm going down with the ship on those predictions.
posted by Mark at 11:56 AM
1 Comments:
Im pretty certain that unlike in 2004, most of the undecideds will go to the challenger. Im almost certain Bush would have lost in 2004 without that last minute momentum boost he got on the Sunday before the election when Bin Laden went on TV. That shifted the race back to "who can keep you safe?" and likely swung some very close states like Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico into Bush's column.
Incumbent President's almost NEVER outperform the final polls. In 1996, remember that it looked like Clinton had a chance to break 400 electoral votes but several states where Clinton had narrow leads(Colorado, Georgia, Montana) went to Dole.
I really have no idea what will happen.
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