Sandy Could Change Everything

Never in my lifetime has the run-up to a Presidential election been shaken up the way that it has this year with the arrival of Hurricane Sandy right in the heart of the nation's most densely populated corner eight days before the election.  The storm is now over and the damage is being assessed, with the Presidential campaign becoming a secondary to the point that the way the two candidates are carrying themselves will go largely unnoticed by the low-information voters who are still persuadable.  It's uncharted and treacherous territory for both candidates, with Obama having to appear Presidential while not overplaying his hand and trying to time his return to the campaign trail in a way that doesn't appear craven.  Mitt Romney's challenge is perhaps more significant as he can't afford to let Obama hog the spotlight with Presidential moments, yet also needs to avoid exploiting the situation. 

At least thus far, Obama is winning the PR war, such as there is one, getting praised by New Jersey's Republican Governor for his assistance and heading to the hardest-hit areas on Wednesday to survey the damage.  Mitt Romney, on the other hand, has been feigning a "food drive for storm victims" as a thinly veiled replacement for an Ohio rally, complete with John McCain trash-talking Obama about Benghazi at the rally, er, food drive.  Worse yet, the Red Cross is turning down the food donations on the grounds that they have more than enough, adding that what they really need is cash.  It's unlikely any of this will break though outside of cable news viewers who are typically committed partisans already, much to the chagrin of Democrats hoping that Obama will be rewarded for strong leadership in the face of disaster while Romney will be penalized for looking foolish trying to remain relevant.  It's possible this could happen, but it seems unlikely.

The more likely scenario is that the storm negatively impacts Obama, primarily for the simple reason that the storm is disproportionately ravaging blue states.  None of the swing states appears likely to be hit particularly hard by storm, with the possible exception of Virginia, so perhaps the impact on the Electoral College will be minimal, but enthusiasm for voting will absolutely crater for millions of Americans besieged by substantial storm damage and suffering through days without electricity.  It's not out of the realm of possibility that because disproportionately Democratic areas of Pennsylvania were hit by the storm that Romney could score an upset.  The math would be more complicated for that in New Jersey and Connecticut, but not completely outside the realm of possibilities.  Several Senate races could be even more complicated in some of the same states, with Chris Murphy of Connecticut potentially the Democrat most challenged in that scenario. 

Perhaps the soggy mess will be cleaned up earlier than expected.  Perhaps power will be restored to just about everybody before next Tuesday.  Perhaps there will be alternatives to same-day voting in all the states affected.  Maybe.  But despite what MSNBC tells us, I see far more downside for Obama and his party from the fallout of this storm than I do upside.  Cranky and devastated incumbents are not known for validating incumbents.