2018 Governor's Race Calls

I always try to make final predictions for elections relatively early since it seems like cheating to make the calls a few days before election night.  The downside to early calls is that some primaries don't even wrap up until early-to-mid-September so the race is often just taking form by the end of September.  Nonetheless I'm making my final gubernatorial race calls more than a month early and then taking on the Senate with final calls in the next couple of weeks.  This midterm seems likely to lean Democratic in the first place, and in the case of the gubernatorial races, the Republicans are coming off of two very good midterm cycles in 2010 and especially 2014, and are pretty overexposed heading into this year.  We'll see how much that helps Democrats and I'll speculate in the reviews ahead....

Alabama--In most states, the successor to a Republican Governor who resigned in disgrace over a sex and corruption scandal, and endorsed an accused pedophile for nakedly partisan reasons, would probably be a longshot for re-election in a climate like we're seeing in 2018, but Alabama is not just any state.  Incumbent Kay Ivey should have little trouble riding the partisan advantage of her state to her first full term over her Democratic challenger, Tuscaloosa Mayor Walt Maddox.  Over course, a Democrat did just win a U.S. Senate special election in Alabama late last year, but that was in an extreme scenario unlikely to be replicated.  Ivey should win by double digits and oversee Republican party corruption in her state continuing to deepen in the years to come.  Prediction:  Ivey by 23

Alaska--The popularity of Alaska's Governor at any given time depends heavily on the price of oil since every Alaskan gets a check in the mail from the state based on oil industry profit-sharing.  Currently, oil prices are down and the state's budget isn't in the best shape, meaning Independent gubernatorial incumbent Bill Walker isn't in good shape either when it comes to re-election.  He might have a fighting chance if his only opponent was Republican challenger Mike Dunleavy, but for some reason former Democratic Senator Mark Begich has gotten into the race as well and it seems extremely unlikely he'll play any role beyond easing Dunleavy's walk to victory in a state that already leans Republican. Unless Begich drops out, it's hard to see how Dunleavy doesn't win.  Prediction: Dunleavy by13.  GOP +1

Arizona--All the tea leaves are suggesting that the political climate in Arizona is terrible for Republicans right now, and some of the polling before the primary showed Republican incumbent Doug Ducey to be vulnerable.  But after Ducey's Democratic challenger David Garcia won the primary and moved into the general election contest, the trendline has been in Ducey's direction, and often by decisive margins.  Back in August, it looked no worse than even money for Garcia to pull this race out but Ducey has the momentum again now and showing no sign of letting it up.   Prediction:  Ducey by 10.

Arkansas--Even as most of the country is seeing a shift towards Democrats heading into this midterm, the not-so-long-ago former Democratic stronghold of Arkansas seems to be lurching even further towards Republicans, with the Natural State being one of only a couple states where the turnout gap in this year's primary grew more in favor of Republicans than in 2014.  The state's transformation from a single-party Democratic state to a single-party Republican state has been quite unlike anything I've seen before and Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson should be a cinch for a landslide second term over Some Dude Democratic challenger Jared Henderson.  Prediction:  Hutchinson by 32.

California--For a Republican running statewide in California these days, just getting on the ballot in the state's top-two all-party primary is a major feat and the good news for the GOP is that they crossed that hurdle when rich guy John Cox got that second slot on the ballot.  The bad news for Cox is that the long-standing toxic political environment for Republicans has gotten even worse in the Trump era, and despite not being everybody's cup of tea, Democratic candidate Gavin Newsom should vanquish Cox by more than 20 points in the open seat gubernatorial race.  Prediction:  Newsom by 27.

Colorado--After three consecutive terms holding the Colorado statehouse, it would seem as though the Democrats should be very vulnerable there for the open seat in 2018.  Instead, pretty much everyone believes Democratic Congressman Jared Polis is the prohibitive favorite in the race against Republican state Treasurer Walker Stapleton.  It shows the degree to which Colorado has shifted to a blue-leaning state in the last decade, and how the Republicans are really gonna be swimming against the tide there in the Trump era.  Prediction:  Polis by 7.

Connecticut--Outgoing two-term Democratic Governor Dan Malloy is one of the least popular governors in the country with approval ratings well below 30%.  In normal times, that would make the open seat a cinch for Republican victory, but these aren't normal times and Connecticut voters are far more likely to vote against Trump than Malloy.  Democrat Ned Lamont thus far looks like he'll have a lay-up in defeating rich guy Republican challenger Bob Stefanowski to hold the statehouse for his party for another term.  Prediction:  Lamont by 11.

Florida--On primary night last month when Democrats selected left-wing Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum over former Congresswoman Gwen Graham as their standard-bearer for the state's gubernatorial race, my first instinct was that they made an O'Donnell-beats-Castle-caliber screw-up of historic proportions that effectively handed the statehouse to right-wing Republican nominee and Congressman Ron DeSantis.  I've walked that assessment back a little and indeed early polling has shown Gillum to be quite competitive, but I still think it's a very uphill climb for Gillum for two reasons.  First, the coalition required for a Democrat to win Florida has required poaching some center-right white voters, either suburban soccer mom types or the Dixiecrats of northern Florida, and I really don't see Gillum as being well-positioned to tap into either of those voting groups given his muscularly progressive policy agenda.  Second, Gillum is under an ongoing FBI investigation.  He insists that he's a minor player in the investigation which is targeted towards one of his donors and there's some indication that may be accurate, but the very existence of an FBI investigation haunting him will be easy picking for his opponent.  I also think DeSantis can and will effectively litigate the "abolish ICE" position that Gillum has taken, a position I believe to be kryptonite for the Democratic Party.  Gillum might be able to take advantage of DeSantis' Tea Party radicalism and the overall Democratic-leaning climate with only one of these issues dogging him, but with the headwinds of all of them together, I suspect DeSantis pulls it out in the end and that Florida Democrats will deeply regret not having gone with the safe choice in Gwen Graham.  Prediction:  DeSantis by 4.

Georgia--A more comprehensive identity-based challenge played out in Georgia's Democratic primary and the clear winner was left-leaning African-American state House leader Stacey Abrams, arguing on behalf of a more progressive alternative to the state's conservative Republican mainstream of recent years.  Outgoing two-term Republican Nathan Deal is being succeeded by GOP Secretary of State Brian Kemp who scored a win in a hotly contested primary of his own.  Abrams will be the most liberal candidate to ever run for Georgia Governor, which would ordinarily disqualify her, but the state's demographics are changing quickly with a black population growing at among the fastest rates in the country and bringing the state to the verge of becoming majority-minority.  Couple that with the general Democratic climate and the swing towards Democrats that was seen in upscale Atlanta suburbs in 2016 and Abrams has a chance, but I suspect she's a cycle or two too soon for the math to work out for her, particularly given that she needs to clear 50% to avoid a runoff.  My money's on Kemp keeping this seat in Republican hands.  Prediction:  Kemp by 5.

Hawaii--Democratic Governor David Ige was quite unpopular and seemed poised to be defeated in the Democratic primary by Congresswoman Coleen Hanabusa who gave up her seat to challenge him.  But after getting high marks for his handling of the volcano over the summer, Ige pulled it out.  Hawaii is as close to being a cinch as there is for the Democrats, meaning he should have less drama in pulling out the general election against fourth-rate GOP challenger Andria Tupola.  Prediction:  Ige by 28.

Idaho--Republican Butch Otter has held the Idaho statehouse for three terms but is finally departing, leaving an open seat that heavily favors Lieutenant Governor Brad Little over Democratic challenger Paulette Jordan.  I haven't seen any polling but Idaho is one of the most Republican states in the country and given that there are no tangible scandals and a pretty strong economy, it's hard to see Idahoans opting not to stay the course.  Prediction:  Little by 25.

Illinois--Rich guy Republican Bruce Rauner seized the advantage and pulled out a rare GOP win in the Land of Lincoln in 2014, upsetting an unpopular Democratic incumbent.  But the state's gridlocked government slumped further into dysfunction under Rauner's tenure and several Republicans in the legislature ended up voting with Democrats and overriding Rauner's veto to keep the place running last year.  Rauner is now deeply unpopular himself and a fellow rich guy on the other side of the aisle, Democrat J.B. Pritzger, is very heavily favored to pull out a comprehensive victory against Rauner in November.  Prediction:  Pritzger by 18.  Running Total:  Even.

Iowa--It's anybody's guess who is leading or who will win in the Iowa gubernatorial race, pitting Republican quasi-incumbent Kim Reynolds, the sitting Governor who replaced Terry Branstad after he resigned, against Democratic rich guy Fred Hubbell.  Iowa has been trending Republican in recent cycles but early indicators suggest a backlash in Democrats favor might be coming.  This race is underpolled and hard to read at this stage of the campaign, but I'm currently tilting very narrowly in Hubbell's direction as it just doesn't seem like Reynolds has established herself with voters outside of her base yet.  It's a jump ball though.  Prediction:  Hubbell by 2.  Running Total: Dems +1

Kansas--In theory, Democrats caught a break when controversially right-wing Secretary of State Kris Kobach narrowly prevailed in the GOP primary against incumbent Governor Jeff Colyer, who was filling out the term of former Governor Sam Brownback after he resigned.  Unfortunately for Democrats, independent Greg Orman, who ran for Senate against Republican Pat Roberts in 2014 as the Democratic stand-in, remains in the race and is probably closing off a path to victory for Democrat Laura Kelly.  At least on paper, the polarizing Kobach could be beaten with a coalition of Democrats and moderate Kansas City-area Republicans, but far less likely with a divided opposition.  If Orman can be convinced to drop out of the race, that definitely resets this race, but if he doesn't Kobach is likely to win.  And even if Orman does drop out, we've seen this movie before in 2014 when Brownback was deeply unpopular and widely expected to lose, but defied the polls and prevailed, so even in a two-candidate race I wouldn't count Kobach out.  Prediction:  Kobach by 7.

Maine--It's tough to get a feel for where the politics of Maine are at this moment, having taken a hard-right turn with the unlikely re-election of Governor Paul Le Page in 2014 followed by Donald Trump's solid showing in the state in the Presidential race in 2016 where he picked off the electoral vote from the northern part of the state.  I suspect that, like Iowa, the state is probably about to see at least a mild backlash favoring Democrats including Attorney General Janet Mills who is likely in the catbird seat to pick up the open Governor's race against Republican rich guy Shawn Moody.  It's no sure thing though and the limited polling has been tight, but unlike 2014 it seems more likely that the late vote in a state like Maine should swing towards the Democrat this year.  Prediction:  Mills by 4.  Running Total:  Dems +2

Maryland--The Old Line State is one of the toughest states in the country for Republicans, but in 2014, the combination of low turnout and a weak Democratic nominee helped GOP candidate Larry Hogan pull it off.  This year Hogan is running for re-election and while he's no sure thing, he's a favorite to beat his Democratic challenger, former NAACP Chairman Ben Jealous.  The swing vote in this race is likely to be white liberals in Montgomery County, but Jealous is probably not the candidate best-positioned to pick them off against the inoffensive Hogan.  Trump's recent decision to cancel the raise of federal workers, heavily represented in the DC suburbs, is not likely to help Hogan's cause though.  In 2006, a similar situation played out where a Republican managed to win the Governor's race in 2002 but in a tough political climate, lost to Democrat Martin O'Malley despite being relatively popular simply because Maryland is such a difficult state for Republicans.  The same thing could happen again but my money is on Hogan. Prediction:  Hogan by 9.

Massachusetts--The Bay State also elected a moderate Republican Governor in 2014, but unlike in Maryland, there's no ambiguity about the extreme likelihood that Republican Charlie Baker will get a second term as he's been popular, inoffensive, and seen as a check against an overwhelmingly Democratic legislature.  Baker has token opposition from Democrat Jay Gonzalez and is expected to win in a landslide despite a particularly toxic climate for Republicans right now in Massachusetts. Prediction:  Baker by 33.

Michigan--In the open seat vacated by Republican Governor Rick Snyder, all indicators point to Michigan voters having buyer's remorse from their dalliance with Republicans, both with Trump who very narrowly won the state in 2016 and with the two-term Snyder.  It would be a shocker if Lansing-area Democratic legislator Gretchen Whitmer didn't win decisively over her challenger, Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette.  There's still plenty of opportunity for Schuette to swim against the tide enough for a win but his campaign has been making plenty of rookie mistakes since the primary and he wasn't even endorsed by Snyder.  Prediction:  Whitmer by 7.  Running Total:  Dems +3

Minnesota--After a drama-filled primary season, the Democrats picked the guy who is likely their best candidate, southern Minnesota Congressman Tim Walz, in their attempt to hold this seat for another term after two terms of incumbent Democrat Mark Dayton, who is retiring.  On the GOP side, an attempted comeback by former Governor Tim Pawlenty cratered in the primary and the Republicans bizarrely opted for their losing 2014 nominee Jeff Johnson.  Johnson didn't put up a particularly great fight and lost against a soft incumbent in a strong Republican year, so it's hard to see much of an opening for him at this point this year unless he runs a much better campaign than he did in 2014.  Walz, meanwhile, has a parochial advantage on top of the general political climate since his geographic baseline is a conservative-tilting region of the state, further narrowing Johnson's chances.  Prediction:  Walz by 7.

Nebraska--In the deep red Cornhusker State, incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts has given voters little reason to fire him so it seems almost certain that Ricketts will have an easy victory against Omaha-area lawmaker Bob Krist, his Democratic challenger.   Prediction:  Ricketts by 34.

Nevada--This open seat vacated by moderate Republican Brian Sandoval is a wild card right now and will come down to whether the union-affiliated Reid machine is sufficiently motivated to turn out to the polls.  With an open Senate seat, two open House races, and this open gubernatorial race featuring Democratic Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak and Republican Attorney General Adam Laxalt, I suspect they will be, but at the same time the cow counties of Nevada have responded to the leftward shift of Vegas and Reno by lurching even more Republican and producing wider margins for the cities to overcome.  With the state's economy doing pretty well, the legacy of the Laxalt name in Nevada, and the age differential favoring the youthful Laxalt, I think he might be slightly favored over the Vegas-centric Sisolak.  It's anybody's guess at this point though and polling has been limited.  Prediction:  Laxalt by 2.

New Hampshire--One of the last gubernatorial races to take form following a mid-September primary is the New Hampshire race.  Former state senator Molly Kelly won for the Democrats and will face off against Republican incumbent Chris Sununu.  In normal political circumstances I would figure Sununu would have a coronation, but New Hampshire has swung leftward in recent years and particularly if 2018 turns out to be a Democratic wave, I wouldn't underestimate Kelly's prospects for an upset.  Barring any polling data showing Sununu to be imminently vulnerable, however, I'll stick with predicting he edges Kelly out.  Prediction: Sununu by 4.

New Mexico--Thanks to fairly weak competitors and a strong political climate for Republicans, GOP Governor Susanna Martinez got two terms even in a state that has trended strongly Democratic in recent years.  It seems unlikely the GOP will keep the streak alive this cycle with its battle of two Congresspersons.  Albuquerque-area Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham should mop the floor up with the conservative Steve Pearce who represents the southern portion of the state.  I'd be surprised if it ended up being close.  Prediction:  Grisham by 11.  Running Total:  Dems +4

New York--After two-term incumbent Democrat Andrew Cuomo prevailed in his primary last month against actress Cynthia Nixon, he pretty much assured himself a third term in the deeply blue Empire State.  Republican Assembly member Marc Molinaro may end up doing better than some expect simply because of Cuomo fatigue upstate but it's not a particularly good time to be a Republican in New York and Cuomo seems likely to win by more than he did in 2014.  Prediction: Cuomo by 22.

Ohio--Another of this year's marquee gubernatorial races is the Buckeye State race to succeed two-term Republican John Kasich.  While Kasich is popular and Ohio has been trending Republican, it feels like this could be a decent Democratic year in the state as they have a good candidate in former Obama consumer protection head Richard Cordray while the Republicans are running the former Senator and current Attorney General Mike DeWine.  With an overwhelmingly Republican legislature, I could see voters opting to check their power by electing Cordray over the fossilized DeWine in a year like this one.  Polling has showed the race competitive and I wouldn't be surprised either way by the outcome, but figure Cordray ekes it out.  Prediction:  Cordray by 1.  Running Total:  Dems +5

Oklahoma--If there's ever been a year where the Democrats could pull it out in the Sooner State, 2018 is that year with outgoing Republican Mary Fallin deeply unpopular and voters displeased with the state's dysfunctional education funding, evident by the massive shift towards Democrats in the state's special elections this past cycle.  And Democrats have a decent candidate in former Attorney General Drew Edmonson while his Republican challenger, rich guy Kevin Stitt, is among other things an anti-vax nutter.  This is definitely a race to watch but this is still Oklahoma where the path to victory for a Democrat was tough 20 years ago but has gotten much worse with the former Democratic base in the southern and eastern portions of the state having realigned firmly Republican.  In the end I think Stitt gets it, but it will probably be the closest statewide election in Oklahoma this decade.  Prediction:  Stitt by 9.

Oregon--It seems to be the same story every four years in Oregon's gubernatorial races...where a Democratic incumbent with soft approval ratings appears vulnerable but always pulls it out come election day.  Unsurprisingly that same dynamic is showing up this year with Democratic incumbent Kate Brown.  If this was another Republican midterm year I could see Brown being taken out, but GOP lawmaker Knute Buehler is gonna have his hands full being a Republican in Oregon in a year like this and I don't see it happening or even coming particularly close.  Prediction:  Brown by 7.

Pennsylvania--Democrat Tom Wolf defied the toxic political climate of 2014 to unseat an unpopular Republican incumbent, and heads into 2018 in the catbird seat to win a second term.  All indications point to a strong Democratic climate in Pennsylvania this year that could help Wolf build on his comprehensive 2014 victory, this time against Republican legislator Scott Wagner from York who has made some missteps and does not appear like a particularly strong candidate at this stage.  Prediction:  Wolf by 16.

Rhode Island--It's a rematch of 2014 in Rhode Island this year with incumbent Democrat Gina Raimondo, who prevailed with an unconvincing 41% showing in a three-way race last time, up against the same Republican challenger in Cranston Mayor Allan Fung, with Independent Joe Trillo not well-positioned to win but poised to pick up a decent share of the vote mostly from Democrats dissatisfied with Raimondo.  Mostly due to the favorable Democratic climate, I think Raimondo probably manages a second term, but probably with another modest showing.  Prediction: Raimondo by 6.

South Carolina--Republican Henry McMaster, who took over for Nikki Haley after she joined the Trump administration, is running for a full term and there's no reason to doubt he'll get it in the conservative Palmetto State.  Democratic lawmaker James Smith is challenging him and has already made the headlines for some inside baseball issues regarding appearing on the ballot as the emissary for minor parties.  Ultimately, Smith doesn't seem poised to do any better than a generic Democrat running in South Carolina and I suspect he underperforms Vince Sheheen's numbers from 2014 and especially 2010.  Prediction:  McMaster by 14.

South Dakota--The open seat to replace retiring Republican Dennis Daugaard has always struck me as the best opportunity for a major Democratic upset even if polls have not yet reflected it.  Republicans are going with Congresswoman Kristi Noem who seems easy to pin down with being a Washington insider in this climate while Democratic state legislator and paraplegic Billie Sutton is a candidate with an interesting profile and great story to tell, with the backdrop of some sleazy headlines to come out of South Dakota's Republican-controlled Legislature in recent years.  The state has the longest streak of Republican Governors in the country and Sutton is better positioned than any Democrat in memory to break that streak if he finds a winning message.  With all of that said, he still has a long way to go and I'm betting Noem ultimately wins....but as I said, keep your eye on this one.  As of this writing, the Cook Report has moved the race from Likely R to Tossup, and while there hasn't been public polling to back that up, Cook must be seeing something to indicate the race is closing.  Prediction:  Noem by 5.

Tennessee--It's rather amazing that with as intensely red of a state that Tennessee has become that the Senate race remains very much a tossup well after Labor Day, but the gubernatorial race looks a lot more like business as usual.  Republican Governor Bill Haslam is retiring after two terms and rich guy Bill Lee recently won the contested primary to be the GOP emissary while the Democrats went with Nashville Mayor Karl Dean.  I think Tennessee Democrats blew it by going with Dean over folksy rural West Tennessee lawmaker Craig Fitzhugh, but Fitzhugh would have struggled against Lee's big bucks and the overall conservatism of Tennessee as well.  It seems like a safe bet that the Tennessee statehouse remains in Republican hands.  Prediction:  Lee by 18.

Texas--Just like Tennessee, the Lone Star state has an unexpectedly competitive Senate race, but a Governor's race that looks quite predictable.  In this case, Republican incumbent Greg Abbott, despite being deeply conservative even by Texas standards, is very popular and poised to win in a landslide against former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, his Democratic challenger.  Prediction:  Abbott by 27.

Vermont--Republican incumbent Phil Scott has the unenviable position of running as a Republican in one of the nation's most liberal states in what's expected to be a very Democratic year, but is probably at least a slight favorite against Democratic challenger Christine Hallquist, the first transgender major-party candidate for statewide office.  The Democratic lean of the state coupled with the prospect of "making history" on the identity politics front might lead to Hallquist performing better than expected but I suspect Scott will be seen as the inoffensive steady hand serving as a check against a very liberal Democratic legislature.  Prediction:  Scott by 6.

Wisconsin--Polarizing Republican incumbent Scott Walker, who took a gamble to run for a third term but from the get go, seemed to have buyer's remorse with that decision soon thereafter, twice speaking out to warn Republican voters that a major Democratic wave appeared to be brewing.  A crowded field of mostly B-list Democrats ran against him with the state's Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers prevailing.  And indeed, early polling has shown Walker deeply vulnerable and in some cases behind.  Walker has proven in the past that it's a fool's errand to count him out, but it really seems like he overreached running for this third term in such a defensive political climate.  It's early and Evers has plenty of opportunity to blow it with any fumbles on the campaign trail but right now I'd give him the edge.  Prediction:  Evers by 2.  Running Total:  Dems +6

Wyoming--Two-term Republican Governor Matt Mead threw in the towel and left an open seat.  Democrats were hoping that controversial rich guy Foster Friess would prevail in the GOP primary, potentially giving them a fighting chance in Trump's best state in the country, but Republican voters refused to cooperate and instead nominated Treasurer Mark Gordon.  Gordon is very likely to prevail against Democratic legislator Mary Throne who is challenging him.  Prediction:  Gordon by 25.


By conventional metrics of leftward-shifting PVI, I believe the Democrats are poised for something closely resembling a wave election if not an outright wave election in November 2018.  And I expect this will play out most strongly in state politics which is a little less tribal than federal politics.  Some serious Democratic gains could be seen downballot in legislative races where Republicans picked up hundreds of seats nationally this decade.  On the other hand, I suspect the overall Democratic gains will seem more dominating than they actually are simply because the Democratic Party is in such a ditch going into November 2018 that even a 50-50 popular vote would produce huge gains. More specifically to the gubernatorial predictions, in an ordinary cycle one party picking up six statehouses, as I predicted above for the Democrats while full acknowledging that might win two or three more if the wind is really at their back, would seem like a huge year for that party, but do keep in mind that with as heavily as Republicans cleaned up in 2014 statehouse races, the law of averages says they're gonna lose some of those seats in a less favorable climate.  Unfortunately for Democrats, the state of the battleground in the Senate races will be a lot less tilted in their favor, and I'll make my final predictions for the Senate races in the next 10 days.