The Democrats Are Poised To Blow It In 2020
On Friday night, comedian Bill Maher's takeaway from the two Democratic Presidential candidate debates was that "the Democrats seem to really, really, really care about illegal immigrants. They also care a little about health care, energy, and the environment, but mostly about how those things affect illegal immigrants." After devouring a weekend full of hot takes about the Democratic debates, most of which concurred with the theory that the big winner of the debate was Donald Trump, Maher's line was the most lethal--and impossible to dispute--conclusion for Democratic prospects in November 2020. The Democratic Party's Presidential aspirants are ready, willing, and able to let the narrative take hold that they care more about illegal immigrants than American citizens. Crop prices in Midwestern farm communities cannot possibly sink low enough as a result of Trump's tariffs for voters in the states Democrats need most to be okay with this posture.
Now the Democrats are taking a number of policy positions that represent a gamble of historical proportions on how far left the American electorate is willing to go, but the immigration issue represents the candidates' most jaw-dropping test for Middle America who voted for Trump last time specifically because they didn't think the Democrats had enough to say that was relevant to their declining communities. And now the Democrats are proposing free health care for life for every past, present, and future illegal immigrant who manages to set one foot inside the "decriminalized borders" they're proposing. Either one of these two proposals (health care for illegal immigrants and open borders) would be nearly impossible to sell individually let alone both in tandem. So have the Democratic candidates completely lost their minds?
Not necessarily. I think they realize their immigration positions are a political death sentence in a general election campaign, but first they have to win the primary. And while primary voters are likely less "woke" than the candidates' debate performances suggest, those writing the campaign checks to bankroll their campaigns are currently the most important people in the world. And there's considerable overlap between the Twitter illuminati driving this leftward lurch and the upscale technology industry workers and university administrators who are better positioned to write big checks to campaigns than are the more moderate blue-collar workers and older African Americans who will show up to vote in much greater numbers than they make campaign donations. Unfortunately for the Democratic Party, the candidates' struggle for early survival directly contradicts their long-term campaign interest. This has always been true to an extent, but never to the extent of what we're currently seeing.
Given all that is at stake if Trump is re-elected, I think the Democratic candidates are taking incredible risks with their increasingly maximalist policy posture on health care, guns, and climate change as well, but the immigration gambit is by far the most serious of their unforced errors given the electoral landscape. Trump's immigration messaging played a large part in flipping Obama voters in the Midwest to his side and as the disparity between the two parties on the issue grows ever wider, expect pretty much all of those Obama-Trump voters to stick with Trump. Now the upscale suburban voters who don't like Trump might not be as concerned about illegal immigration but will have a problem with being forced to give up their health insurance for a government-run Medicare for All plan. The Democrats need to win over one of these two factions to get to 270 electoral votes, and every time their candidates open their mouths it gets harder to see how they do.
In one respect, I'm inclined to say that the only reason the Democrats are even in the game heading into 2020 is personal antipathy toward Trump by a majority of voters.....and that if it was an incumbent Republican Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio running for re-election with the favorable fundamentals Trump is likely to run on, it would be a double-digit blowout against this version of the Democratic Party. And while this still may be true, I also think it's fair to say that Donald Trump has exacerbated the counterradicalization of the Democratic Party, especially on immigration, effectively coaxing the Democrats to embrace a posture they wouldn't have believed to be politically viable against anybody but Trump.
Whatever the case, nobody can accuse the Democrats of offering a pale alternative to Trump on any number of issues, but primarily immigration. They are doing everything they can to portray themselves as Trump's diametric opposite, even if it requires taking positions where public opinion has very recently ran at least 2-1 against where the Democrats currently stand on the issue that will be the centerpiece of Trump's campaign. I'm hoping to see more opinion polls on this in the aftermath of the debate to see how far out of touch the party is, desperately hoping there's still room to course-correct in the general election campaign. As it stands now, the best Democrats can hope for is to thread an Electoral College needle based on Trump's overt racism and cruelty offending voters' hearts more than the Democrats' dual promises of open borders and free health care for illegal immigrants offends their brains. Even so, it absolutely doesn't have to be this way for Democrats, and if they lose the gamble, each of the 20+ Presidential candidates who frittered away the country's future because they chose to die on the hill of mindless and shameless pandering to illegal immigrants and their apologists will have to spend the rest of their lives looking at themselves in the mirror and realize that they did this to all of us.
Now the Democrats are taking a number of policy positions that represent a gamble of historical proportions on how far left the American electorate is willing to go, but the immigration issue represents the candidates' most jaw-dropping test for Middle America who voted for Trump last time specifically because they didn't think the Democrats had enough to say that was relevant to their declining communities. And now the Democrats are proposing free health care for life for every past, present, and future illegal immigrant who manages to set one foot inside the "decriminalized borders" they're proposing. Either one of these two proposals (health care for illegal immigrants and open borders) would be nearly impossible to sell individually let alone both in tandem. So have the Democratic candidates completely lost their minds?
Not necessarily. I think they realize their immigration positions are a political death sentence in a general election campaign, but first they have to win the primary. And while primary voters are likely less "woke" than the candidates' debate performances suggest, those writing the campaign checks to bankroll their campaigns are currently the most important people in the world. And there's considerable overlap between the Twitter illuminati driving this leftward lurch and the upscale technology industry workers and university administrators who are better positioned to write big checks to campaigns than are the more moderate blue-collar workers and older African Americans who will show up to vote in much greater numbers than they make campaign donations. Unfortunately for the Democratic Party, the candidates' struggle for early survival directly contradicts their long-term campaign interest. This has always been true to an extent, but never to the extent of what we're currently seeing.
Given all that is at stake if Trump is re-elected, I think the Democratic candidates are taking incredible risks with their increasingly maximalist policy posture on health care, guns, and climate change as well, but the immigration gambit is by far the most serious of their unforced errors given the electoral landscape. Trump's immigration messaging played a large part in flipping Obama voters in the Midwest to his side and as the disparity between the two parties on the issue grows ever wider, expect pretty much all of those Obama-Trump voters to stick with Trump. Now the upscale suburban voters who don't like Trump might not be as concerned about illegal immigration but will have a problem with being forced to give up their health insurance for a government-run Medicare for All plan. The Democrats need to win over one of these two factions to get to 270 electoral votes, and every time their candidates open their mouths it gets harder to see how they do.
In one respect, I'm inclined to say that the only reason the Democrats are even in the game heading into 2020 is personal antipathy toward Trump by a majority of voters.....and that if it was an incumbent Republican Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio running for re-election with the favorable fundamentals Trump is likely to run on, it would be a double-digit blowout against this version of the Democratic Party. And while this still may be true, I also think it's fair to say that Donald Trump has exacerbated the counterradicalization of the Democratic Party, especially on immigration, effectively coaxing the Democrats to embrace a posture they wouldn't have believed to be politically viable against anybody but Trump.
Whatever the case, nobody can accuse the Democrats of offering a pale alternative to Trump on any number of issues, but primarily immigration. They are doing everything they can to portray themselves as Trump's diametric opposite, even if it requires taking positions where public opinion has very recently ran at least 2-1 against where the Democrats currently stand on the issue that will be the centerpiece of Trump's campaign. I'm hoping to see more opinion polls on this in the aftermath of the debate to see how far out of touch the party is, desperately hoping there's still room to course-correct in the general election campaign. As it stands now, the best Democrats can hope for is to thread an Electoral College needle based on Trump's overt racism and cruelty offending voters' hearts more than the Democrats' dual promises of open borders and free health care for illegal immigrants offends their brains. Even so, it absolutely doesn't have to be this way for Democrats, and if they lose the gamble, each of the 20+ Presidential candidates who frittered away the country's future because they chose to die on the hill of mindless and shameless pandering to illegal immigrants and their apologists will have to spend the rest of their lives looking at themselves in the mirror and realize that they did this to all of us.
posted by Mark at 11:33 AM
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