The Democrats' Impeachment Catch .22
For most of the last two years, Congress and the American people patiently awaited the release of the report from the Mueller investigation on Trump for collusion and obstruction of justice, with an expectation of a clear answer and a mandate to proceed with a prosecution. Even a clean bill of legal health for Trump would have been an acceptable consolation prize as it would have at least gotten the story out of the headlines and allowed time for the public to move onto other matters before the Presidential election. Instead, the Mueller report came to no conclusion and left the country and the Congress in limbo, and what looks like a best-case scenario for Trump. Here's a quick overview on the state of affairs:
* Even though Mueller found plenty of evidence of obstruction of justice by Trump, he refused to recommend prosecution because he's of the mind that legal precedent ensures that a sitting President cannot be indicted, thus handing the decision-making up to legislators whose only option is to vote to impeach.
* Legal scholars unanimously deduced that despite Mueller's lack of endorsement for prosecution that Trump did in fact commit obstruction of justice, putting the onus on the Democratic House of Representatives to launch impeachment hearings or else be derelict in their constitutional duties.
* Hand-picked Attorney General William Barr, whose certificate of employment barely had dry ink by the time he was called upon to interpret the advanced copy of the Mueller report, assured us less than 48 hours after receiving the report that it fully exonerated Trump, establishing the narrative weeks before the Mueller report became official that Trump did no wrong.
* Public polling questions a scandal-weary electorate in the aftermath of the ambiguous Mueller report if they believe the Democrats should start impeachment hearings against Trump or let the matter go, and a clear majority of 53-58%, depending on the poll, tell pollsters they want Democrats to let it go.
* Most Democrats feel an obligation to their office to vote on impeachment to make sure any and all future Presidents don't take away the message that they can obstruct justice whenever and however they want to without consequence.
* House Democrats acknowledge that even if Trump is impeached, they will certainly fall more than a dozen votes short of convicting Trump in the Republican-controlled Senate, meaning there will be no political upside for them even under the most optimistic scenario.
* Impeachment supporters assure that extensive investigation of data from the Mueller report will ensue before any articles of impeachment are officially drawn, but the longer the process goes on, the more unpopular it will be with a voting public that's already sick of it.
So is there any way out of this politically for Democrats? Can they simultaneously fulfill their constitutional duty of proceeding with impeachment for a President who legal scholars all believe committed a crime yet also keep from making a sympathetic figure out of a President that most voters believe has been exonerated? It's hard to see a path. The best-case scenario I can envision is continuing the investigations in a way that run out the clock, concluding at some point next year that with so little time left on his term that they won't proceed with impeachment and will simply let voters decide in the Presidential election. Now that would be a cop out in terms of imposing justice on a corrupt President that prosecutors insist they cannot touch, and in fulfilling the duties of their legislative body, but the consequences of the 2020 election seem to require whatever sleight of hand necessary to keep Trump from getting a formal high-profile acquittal from Mitch McConnell in the weeks before the general election.
With each passing week, it seems as though beating Trump next year is going to become harder. Pretending that Donald Trump did not obstruct justice is a shit sandwich that Democrats don't want to eat, but the politics strongly suggest it will be a choice between justice and victory. Nancy Pelosi gets it, and is pushing back against her members itching to impeach. McConnell is a savvy operator and will make a huge and perfectly timed spectacle of pulling Trump out of the fire with an acquittal with a clear majority of United States Senators, and it will be tough for Democrats to overcome. It's hard for me to recommend the House Democrats shirk their responsibility, but if Trump gets re-elected and gets to replace two liberals on the Supreme Court with more Federalist Society hacks, then the Democratic Party will have nothing to fight for legislatively for the next two generations. That's a pretty high price to pay for a House impeachment vote doomed to fail in the Senate.
* Even though Mueller found plenty of evidence of obstruction of justice by Trump, he refused to recommend prosecution because he's of the mind that legal precedent ensures that a sitting President cannot be indicted, thus handing the decision-making up to legislators whose only option is to vote to impeach.
* Legal scholars unanimously deduced that despite Mueller's lack of endorsement for prosecution that Trump did in fact commit obstruction of justice, putting the onus on the Democratic House of Representatives to launch impeachment hearings or else be derelict in their constitutional duties.
* Hand-picked Attorney General William Barr, whose certificate of employment barely had dry ink by the time he was called upon to interpret the advanced copy of the Mueller report, assured us less than 48 hours after receiving the report that it fully exonerated Trump, establishing the narrative weeks before the Mueller report became official that Trump did no wrong.
* Public polling questions a scandal-weary electorate in the aftermath of the ambiguous Mueller report if they believe the Democrats should start impeachment hearings against Trump or let the matter go, and a clear majority of 53-58%, depending on the poll, tell pollsters they want Democrats to let it go.
* Most Democrats feel an obligation to their office to vote on impeachment to make sure any and all future Presidents don't take away the message that they can obstruct justice whenever and however they want to without consequence.
* House Democrats acknowledge that even if Trump is impeached, they will certainly fall more than a dozen votes short of convicting Trump in the Republican-controlled Senate, meaning there will be no political upside for them even under the most optimistic scenario.
* Impeachment supporters assure that extensive investigation of data from the Mueller report will ensue before any articles of impeachment are officially drawn, but the longer the process goes on, the more unpopular it will be with a voting public that's already sick of it.
So is there any way out of this politically for Democrats? Can they simultaneously fulfill their constitutional duty of proceeding with impeachment for a President who legal scholars all believe committed a crime yet also keep from making a sympathetic figure out of a President that most voters believe has been exonerated? It's hard to see a path. The best-case scenario I can envision is continuing the investigations in a way that run out the clock, concluding at some point next year that with so little time left on his term that they won't proceed with impeachment and will simply let voters decide in the Presidential election. Now that would be a cop out in terms of imposing justice on a corrupt President that prosecutors insist they cannot touch, and in fulfilling the duties of their legislative body, but the consequences of the 2020 election seem to require whatever sleight of hand necessary to keep Trump from getting a formal high-profile acquittal from Mitch McConnell in the weeks before the general election.
With each passing week, it seems as though beating Trump next year is going to become harder. Pretending that Donald Trump did not obstruct justice is a shit sandwich that Democrats don't want to eat, but the politics strongly suggest it will be a choice between justice and victory. Nancy Pelosi gets it, and is pushing back against her members itching to impeach. McConnell is a savvy operator and will make a huge and perfectly timed spectacle of pulling Trump out of the fire with an acquittal with a clear majority of United States Senators, and it will be tough for Democrats to overcome. It's hard for me to recommend the House Democrats shirk their responsibility, but if Trump gets re-elected and gets to replace two liberals on the Supreme Court with more Federalist Society hacks, then the Democratic Party will have nothing to fight for legislatively for the next two generations. That's a pretty high price to pay for a House impeachment vote doomed to fail in the Senate.
posted by Mark at 9:31 AM
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