Campaign 2018: Closing Thoughts
The closing weekend of the 2018 midterm campaign feels like a time when momentum is building for Democrats and the likelihood for a decent-sized wave is about to crest at the right time. Then again, I thought the same thing on the closing weekend of the 2016 Presidential campaign, only to reverse that assessment sharply by Monday night and into Tuesday when the tide felt like it was going the other way. My intuition has generally been pretty good on these things, but this year the variables are considerably higher than they were in the previous three midterm campaigns (2006, 2010, and 2014), all of which pointed to pretty clean waves for the out-party. If Democratic momentum had continued to build without any speed bumps, this cycle would be just as predictable. But the headlines in the past month have provided some headwinds for Democrats, including a Supreme Court battle fought over a hot-button culture war issue, an immigration story that has fired up low-propensity GOP voters, and blistering economic and job growth with historically low unemployment rates that could keep center-right independents on the Republican train.
Working to Democrats' favor is a deeply polarizing President who hasn't exactly played the fantastic cards he's been dealt very deftly along with a GOP overexposure in statehouses, legislatures, and suburban Congressional districts. It's a different story in the Senate where it's Democrats who are extremely overexposed defending their massive 2012 Senate class, but even there it's now looking possible to thread a needle and have some key red-state Senate races break late in Democrats' favor, but it will only happen if the media narrative of the GOP's certainty of retaining the Senate holds for 48 more hours.
But then again, maybe the GOP will get Trump's country bumpkin coalition out in full force underneath everybody's radar just as he did two years ago. That still probably wouldn't be enough to save the House but could result in multiple Senate seats staying in Republican hands, much like I predicted two weeks ago in my final Senate predictions. I'm out on a limb predicting Manchin loses in West Virginia, but none of my other picks seems too out of line as there are so many races that continue to be on the knife's edge, and I think I'm standing by those final Senate predictions where the GOP gains four seats.
In the Governor's races, I'm standing by every prediction except Nevada where I now think Sisolak is a slight favorite over Laxalt. The Florida polls have tightened this week and given Republicans' habit of outperforming the polls in the Sunshine State, I'm still betting on a narrow DeSantis win over Gillum.
As for the House, I'll relist the races I think will flip from blue to red given that the playing field has changed quite a bit in the last six weeks....
AZ-02, CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-15, FL-27, IL-06, IA-01, IA-03, KS-02, KS-03, ME-02, MI-08, MI-11, MN-02, MN-03, MT-AL, NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-07, NJ-11, NY-19, NY-22, NC-09, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-17, TX-32, UT-04, VA-02, VA-07, VA-10, and WA-08.
On top of that, the GOP will pick up two seats currently held by Democrats....MN-08 and PA-14.
This list has changed some since my September ratings, but my diagnosis hasn't, giving Democrats a net of 36 seats. I could see the tide being a handful of seats fewer than that but conceivably several seats more. I'd be stunned if the Republicans were able to hold their losses to fewer than 23, the tipping point where Democrats take control of the House.....as in just as stunned when Donald Trump got the Electoral College inside straight that he got on November 8, 2016. But I would only be equally shocked in Democrats got more than 50 seats, which shows how big the battleground is this year.
Had a Republican President Marco Rubio or John Kasich, or possibly even Ted Cruz, been presiding over a nation with fundamentals as strong as what we're seeing now, the Democrats would not likely be poised to make these kinds of gains. Donald Trump is the reason why so many of these suburban Republicans are poised to lose their jobs. We'll see if he regains his footing after Democrats take over the House. My guess is he very well might.
Working to Democrats' favor is a deeply polarizing President who hasn't exactly played the fantastic cards he's been dealt very deftly along with a GOP overexposure in statehouses, legislatures, and suburban Congressional districts. It's a different story in the Senate where it's Democrats who are extremely overexposed defending their massive 2012 Senate class, but even there it's now looking possible to thread a needle and have some key red-state Senate races break late in Democrats' favor, but it will only happen if the media narrative of the GOP's certainty of retaining the Senate holds for 48 more hours.
But then again, maybe the GOP will get Trump's country bumpkin coalition out in full force underneath everybody's radar just as he did two years ago. That still probably wouldn't be enough to save the House but could result in multiple Senate seats staying in Republican hands, much like I predicted two weeks ago in my final Senate predictions. I'm out on a limb predicting Manchin loses in West Virginia, but none of my other picks seems too out of line as there are so many races that continue to be on the knife's edge, and I think I'm standing by those final Senate predictions where the GOP gains four seats.
In the Governor's races, I'm standing by every prediction except Nevada where I now think Sisolak is a slight favorite over Laxalt. The Florida polls have tightened this week and given Republicans' habit of outperforming the polls in the Sunshine State, I'm still betting on a narrow DeSantis win over Gillum.
As for the House, I'll relist the races I think will flip from blue to red given that the playing field has changed quite a bit in the last six weeks....
AZ-02, CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, CA-45, CA-48, CA-49, CO-06, FL-15, FL-27, IL-06, IA-01, IA-03, KS-02, KS-03, ME-02, MI-08, MI-11, MN-02, MN-03, MT-AL, NJ-02, NJ-03, NJ-07, NJ-11, NY-19, NY-22, NC-09, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-17, TX-32, UT-04, VA-02, VA-07, VA-10, and WA-08.
On top of that, the GOP will pick up two seats currently held by Democrats....MN-08 and PA-14.
This list has changed some since my September ratings, but my diagnosis hasn't, giving Democrats a net of 36 seats. I could see the tide being a handful of seats fewer than that but conceivably several seats more. I'd be stunned if the Republicans were able to hold their losses to fewer than 23, the tipping point where Democrats take control of the House.....as in just as stunned when Donald Trump got the Electoral College inside straight that he got on November 8, 2016. But I would only be equally shocked in Democrats got more than 50 seats, which shows how big the battleground is this year.
Had a Republican President Marco Rubio or John Kasich, or possibly even Ted Cruz, been presiding over a nation with fundamentals as strong as what we're seeing now, the Democrats would not likely be poised to make these kinds of gains. Donald Trump is the reason why so many of these suburban Republicans are poised to lose their jobs. We'll see if he regains his footing after Democrats take over the House. My guess is he very well might.
posted by Mark at 2:21 PM
3 Comments:
The weird thing is that if Hillary was President and even if the economy was the way it is now, Dems would still likely be looking at double digit losses in the Senate and more losses in the House. Why do you believe that Republican other than Trump would have been able to make the losses that much better?
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