Final Senate Race Predictions of 2020

There are a half dozen states this cycle that are challenging to predict in the Presidential race.  If anything, predicting this year's Senate races is even harder.  There are a number of highly competitive races but plenty in the second tier of competitiveness that could end up dropping in a much different direction than originally expected if Biden wins a sweeping national landslide.   With that in mind, something happened in battleground Senate races four years ago that I don't recall seeing before in a Presidential cycle.  A number of voters who didn't approve of Hillary Clinton nonetheless voted for her because they approved of Trump even less.  Yet a significant percentage of these voters appear to have hedged their bets by voting for Republican Senate candidates as a check against a hypothetical President Hillary Clinton, who just about everybody expected to win in 2016.  The most obvious examples of this came in Wisconsin (Ron Johnson) and Pennsylvania (Pat Toomey), neither of whom was expected to win but drew unexpected crossover support from suburban voters who went for Hillary.  Indiana (Todd Young) and Missouri (Roy Blunt) also elected Republican Senators who were considered underdogs going into election night 2016, presumably with the same theory of hedging against a Hillary win with a defiant Congress.  Since Hillary didn't win the Presidency, this hedging came with serious unintended consequences.

So what's the most likely scenario to expect the second time Donald Trump's at the top of the ballot and is heading into an election night where most people assume he's going to lose?  Will Biden's win come with the kind of downballot coattails for his party that usually accompany a big win on the Presidential line?  Or might voters nervous about an all-Democratic government behave like they did in 2016 and split their ticket by going for Republican Senators?  Ultimately I think it's a mix and match, with decisive Democratic wins in the states that go strongly Biden but second-guessing about giving Democrats too much power in the "reach seats", most of which are in very red states.  

But there's still definite potential to see 2020 turn into 1980, a year where an unpopular President went down to landslide defeat and saw his Democratic allies in the Senate get snuffed out along with him.  In 1980, virtually every battleground Senate race and a number of races that were not even really considered competitive all flipped to the Republicans on the coattails of Reagan's big victory.  Could that happen again?  Possibly, but there was one significant difference between the two cycles.  In 1980, Reagan peaked at exactly the right time, walking all over Jimmy Carter in a debate a week before the election and surging in the polls just in time for election day, carrying his party across the finish line on his back.  We saw something similar in 2012 where Obama surged to re-election in the final week of the campaign, helping the Democrats sweep just about every battleground Senate race including some races they weren't expected to win.  

As for Biden, I'm thinking he peaked too early.  Voters have had a month now to contemplate the possibility of the inevitable Biden presidency, and that length of time probably gave a faction of voters some butterflies.  How much power do they want Biden's party to have?  Particularly when it comes to the red states where the Democratic Senate candidates are competitive but still underdogs, it strikes me as less likely these voters will align with Democrats to the degree needed for the second coming of 1980.  But on the other hand, it's not 2016 anymore.  Biden has much lower unfavorable ratings than the deeply unpopular Hillary Clinton had, while Trump is the unpopular incumbent rather than the unpopular challenger as he was then.  Voters could well opt for a complete ideological rebuke of Trumpism, delivering Trump's opposition with complete rein of government to undo all they're dissatisfied with.  I'm not dismissing either possibility, or an even split between the two for that matter, but as is often the case with me, I'm leaning toward the more cautious side of the predictions equation.

Let's take a look, state by state.....

Alabama--While I still believe accidental Democratic incumbent Doug Jones is gonna get spanked by a double-digit margin on November 3rd, I'm pulling back a bit from August when I predicted Jones would do no better than a generic Democrat in the Yellowhammer State.  Jones has been running a pretty good campaign while his entitled GOP challenger Tommy Tuberville is holding very few public events, taking for granted that Trump's coattails and the state's generic Republican advantage will be enough to win.  It seems likely the state will be called for Tuberville at poll closing time, but I think Jones will hold a modest number of the crossover votes he got in the 2017 special election, particularly in places like Huntsville and suburban Birmingham.  Final Prediction:  Tuberville +13

Alaska--The Last Frontier is among the list of Democratic "reach states" I cited in my preamble, with polls indicating that Independent candidate Al Gross, who would likely caucus with the Democrats, within striking distance of first-term Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan.  Alaska is the hardest state in the country to poll and results tend to come in more Republican than polling usually indicates, meaning Sullivan still has a definite edge.  Furthermore, I suspect a bit of a snap back to the GOP in this race following Biden's debate comments about transitioning away from the oil and gas industries in the years ahead.  That won't fly in Alaska, and you can be sure Sullivan is gonna do his best to make sure Gross owns those comments and puts him on defense in the final week of the campaign.   Final Prediction:  Sullivan +8

Arizona--It's all over but the crying for Republican incumbent Martha McSally in her effort to hang on to John McCain's old Senate seat which she was appointed to fill in 2018.  She's behind Democratic challenger Mark Kelly by high single-digits in the Grand Canyon State in a year where long-festering trendlines toward Democrats appear to be coming to a head.  Kelly is pretty close to a sure thing at this point, but it's unfortunate for Democrats that he'll be up again in 2022 in what will likely be a decidedly less favorable political environment.  Unless McSally makes the race considerably more competitive than is currently expected, I doubt McSally will be the Republican that gives Kelly a rematch two years from now.  Final Prediction:  Kelly +7

Arkansas--It's a shame that Democrats didn't run a challenger to Republican incumbent Tom Cotton.  It's not that Democrats would have any real chance of winning a federal statewide office in the Natural State at this point, but it would be interesting to see how close Democrats were capable of getting against Cotton in a strong national environment for the party.   Libertarian challenger Ricky Harrington will be the only competition that Cotton faces in 2020, and while he's unlikely to be a serious contender against one of the Senate's most conservative members, I bet he still wins a few majority-black counties along the Mississippi River delta who can't bring themselves to support Cotton.   Final Prediction:  Cotton +37

Colorado--It's over for Republican incumbent Cory Gardner in the Centennial State.  The national Republican Party triaged his race last week because he was so far behind in the polls.  Former Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper may not be the most electric candidate on his party's rolodex but he has a track record of appealing to independents that positions him well to run up the score against Gardner, particularly in this Democratic-trending state where Biden looks poised to romp at the top of the ticket.  Final Prediction:  Hickenlooper +9

Delaware--One has to go back to 2000, a full generation ago, since the last time there was a contested federal race in the First State.  That streak will continue in 2020 with the quiet Delaware Senate race pitting incumbent Democrat Chris Coons against his QAnon-curious GOP challenger Lauren Witzke.  With favorite son Joe Biden at the head of the ticket, Coons will cruise to his easiest victory yet.   Final Prediction:  Coons by 26

Georgia (A)--If the Peach State ran its Senate races like normal states do, Republican incumbent David Perdue might be in serious trouble in his bid for re-election against Democratic challenger Jon Ossoff as Democrats seem poised to have a pretty solid year in Georgia.  But Perdue will likely be saved by the 50% threshold runoff rule, a holdover from the Jim Crow era, which means Ossoff not only has to win on election night, but must do so with 50% of the vote.  I'm not completely writing off this possibility depending on how brisk both turnout and demographic momentum ends up being in Georgia, but getting to 50% seems like a stretch for Ossoff.  And if there's a January runoff election, presumably with a President-elect Joe Biden weeks away from taking his Oath of Office, the enthusiasm gap for the runoff should greatly favor Republicans.  It certainly has in the past for Georgia runoff elections.  Ultimately though, I think the most likely scenario is a narrow Purdue win on election night either just above or just below the 50% threshold.  If it goes to a runoff, Purdue is a heavy favorite. I'll base my final prediction on the expectation of a 50% threshold though.  Final Prediction:  Purdue +3

Georgia (B)--While there's a decent chance the regular Senate election in Georgia ends up being settled by a January runoff, it's almost certain that the special Senate election in Georgia will be.  November 3rd will be a multi-candidate jungle primary to fill the seat held by appointed Republican Kelly Loeffler, with the top-two vote-getters going to a runoff.  Loeffler appears to have a narrow advantage over fellow Republican Doug Collins, who is ostensibly running to Loeffler's right, while Democrat Ralph Warnock is poised to face either Collins or Loeffler.  It's highly unlikely anybody gets to 50% as there are other Democrats expected to get single-digit support as well.  Just as in the Perdue race, the Republicans should have a significant enthusiasm advantage in the January runoff if Biden is the President-elect, meaning Loeffler has better odds than anybody else of winning this race and keeping the seat in GOP hands.  Final Prediction (for a likely runoff):  Loeffler +8

Idaho--While Democrats have made a race out of it in an impressive number of red state Senate races, there's no indication that Idaho is among them.  It's a shame that a candidate as strong as Democrat Paulette Jordan is going to waste in such a hopeless state, but there's no hint of traction in her race against Republican incumbent Jim Risch.  Barring a tectonic surprise, Risch should cruise to victory once again.   Final Prediction:  Risch +29

Illinois--Long-time Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin is a safe bet for re-election against third-rate GOP challenger Mark Curran, but expect his margin to be a mostly Chicago-land phenomenon.  Durbin, the former Congressman from Springfield, will probably do better than the average Democrat downstate, but his sweeping, comprehensive victories of 2002 and 2008 are a thing of the past after a generation of downstate Illinois consolidating to the GOP.  That's not to understate how big of a numerical victory Durbin will get though, as it will be huge.  Final Prediction:  Durbin +23

Iowa--The Beltway and media consensus is that incumbent Republican Joni Ernst is toast in the Hawkeye State after a surprisingly spirited campaign by Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield who holds a narrow lead in the majority of polls.  I'm still not convinced.  Iowa's demographics are such that pollsters having been underestimating Republican numbers for three consecutive cycles now, with working-class whites realigning to the GOP.   It's certainly possible that things will be different this time, with plenty of anxiety in farm country and the state's small cities appearing to be consolidating towards Democrats, but I still expect Republicans will outperform the polls in Iowa.  If I see a pattern of Greenfield pulling away in the next week, it's possible I'll reconsider, but as of today I think Ernst ekes it out.  Final Prediction:  Ernst +2

Kansas--Another dark red state where the Democrats have a puncher's chance, the long-standing Republican civil war between Kansas City-area moderates and rural conservatives in the Sunflower State is coming to head once again this cycle.  This year, former Republican legislator Barbara Bollier is the Democratic emissary and appears to be consolidating the support of the moderates who are increasingly realigning toward Democrats.  Wheat country Republican Congressman Roger Marshall is running for the Republicans, and while nowhere near as toxic as primary challenger Kris Kobach, is nonetheless underperforming according to the polls.  Kansas has not elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, the longest streak of single-party Senate delegations in the nation.  I expect that streak will continue as Bollier will have a hard time making up the last remaining points she currently trails, at least outside of the most lopsided imaginable electorate scenario where conservatives don't show up.  Hope springs eternal and Bollier's chance are certainly not zero, but she's a decided underdog.  Final Prediction:  Marshall +7

Kentucky--Given that he consistently has among the lowest approval ratings in the country even in his home state, most people will likely be surprised that Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is cruising to re-election in the Bluegrass State this year.  Well-funded Democratic challenger Amy McGrath looks good on paper but has underperformed throughout her brief political career, including her failed 2018 U.S. House race and her weak margin of victory in the Senate primary earlier this year.  She's gonna fall far short of victory in the race against McConnell, primarily because Kentucky has become such a Republican stronghold in the last generation.  Trump may be flagging nationally but is still popular in Kentucky and throughout much of Appalachia, and his coattails will alone drag McConnell comfortably across the finish line to wield his next-level cynicism on the Senate floor for another six years.  Honestly though, McConnell would overcome his lack of popularity and prevail even without Trump coattails simply because of the (R) next to his name.  Final Prediction:  McConnell +22

Louisiana--I didn't realize it when I did my initial round of Senate profiles in August, but election night in the Pelican State is technically a jungle primary, with multiple candidates on the ballot and potentially heading for a December runoff.  I doubt it'll come to that though as Republican incumbent Bill Cassidy seems poised to get more than 50%.  That reduces the prospects of the promising leading candidate for the Democrats, Shreveport Mayor Adrian Perkins, from slim to none for an election night victory.  If he holds Cassidy to less than 50%, which is unlikely, Perkins' prospects would be no less bleak in the runoff.  Final Prediction:  Cassidy +23

Maine--While it's never wise to completely write off long-time Republican Senator Susan Collins, every indication that this year will be her Waterloo.   Maine appears to be swinging hard to the Democrats this year and Collins has likely danced with Trump more times than voters are comfortable with.  I initially feared that Collins' opposition to the Amy Coney Barrett hearings would feed into the "independent" image that Collins has so successfully crafted for herself in the last 24 years, but polls are pretty consistently showing leads for Democratic challenger Sara Gideon.  Now Maine is a heavily white working-class state so it's possible Collins voters are being undersampled in the rural northern reaches of the state, but Collins would really have to pull a rabbit out of her hat to hang on at this point.  National Republicans seem to agree she's probably toast.  Final Prediction:  Gideon +4

Massachusetts--Democratic Senator Ed Markey should skate into a second full term against his fourth-rate GOP challenger, attorney Kevin O'Connor.  The Bay State is brutal territory for Republicans even in the best possible year, and with Donald Trump at the top of the ticket in 2020, this year ain't that.  Final Prediction:  Markey +34

Michigan--One of the only Democratic Senate seats where there remains some degree of uncertainty is the Wolverine State where Democratic incumbent Gary Peters is underperforming Biden at the top of the ticket.  Republican challenger John James, who did better than expected against Senator Stabenow in 2018, is cleverly playing the role of a bipartisan champion to the point of potentially confusing low-information voters who may think because he's black and because Peters is the middle-aged white guy that James is actually the Democrat in the race.  Ultimately I think the partisan tide favoring the Democrats, for Biden particularly and in Michigan specifically, pulls Peters across the finish line somewhat comfortably, but if Peters underperforms polling as much as Stabenow did two years ago, then this race truly is a toss-up.  Final Prediction:  Peters +4

Minnesota--There are conflicting data points on whether Democratic incumbent Tina Smith has a race on her hands or not in the Gopher State.  Republican challenger Jason Lewis is being outspent 4-1 and seems an unlikely candidate to generate real momentum in a cycle like this one, but I also doubt that the anonymous Smith is making any real impact on voters with her cash and advertising advantage.  The tide at the top of the ticket makes me doubt this will be Lewis's year, but I continue to believe most people will be shocked that this race ends up as close as I suspect it will, with the Twin Cities metro area singularly propping up Smith enough to drag her past the finish fine.  Final Prediction:  Smith +4

Mississippi--Lurking in the background of conversations about competitive Senate races is the Magnolia State, where incumbent Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith is going for her first full term in a rematch with Democrat Mike Espy, who put forth a strong showing against Hyde-Smith in a 2018 special election.  Much like the similarly named Senator from Minnesota cited above, Hyde-Smith hasn't made much on an impression on Mississippi voters and might be vulnerable if she wasn't in such an inelastically Republican state on a year where Donald Trump's at the top of the ballot.  Given the comparatively favorable national environment, Espy could theoretically outperform the Democratic baseline, but it would still be surprising if he could match the 8-point margin of defeat he managed two years ago in a higher turnout Presidential election cycle.  Final Prediction:  Hyde-Smith +12

Montana--The heavyweight battle between the Steves in Big Sky Country is holding out as competitive longer than I expected it to back in August, largely because Trump's weakness at the top of the ticket seems poised to hold the incumbent President to single digits, creating less of a headwind for downballot Democrats.  Still, most polls give Republican incumbent Steve Daines small leads within the margin of error that I suspect will hold.  Democratic Governor Steve Bullock is by no means out of this race and I wouldn't fall out of my chair if he ekes out a win on November 3rd, but he's a minor underdog, albeit substantially less of one that I predicted in the summer.  Final Prediction:  Daines +3

Nebraska--There's a reason why Republican incumbent Ben Sasse had the nerve to make blisteringly critical comments about Trump earlier this month despite being up for re-election this year.  His would-be Democratic challenger Chris Janicek's history of sexual misconduct led to the party disavowing his candidacy, meaning Sasse is running unopposed for all intents and purposes.  In fact, it's entirely possible that Libertarian candidate Gene Siadek could outpoll the Democrat in the race, particularly if there are pro-Trump Republicans who refuse to continue supporting Sasse after the anti-Trump broadside.  Either way, the disorganized opposition will too be divided to stand in Sasse's way of re-election and I suspect he'll still get well over 50% in the three-way race.  Sasse seems to think he's setting himself up to be the future of a post-Trump Republican Party but I have serious doubts whether a Republican of Sasse's pedigree will capture the imagination of Republican primary voters again anytime soon.  Final Prediction:  Sasse +28

New Hampshire--There was little doubt Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen had the whip hand for winning a third term this cycle, but the bitterly divided Republican primary for her challenger really set her up for a lay-up victory this year in the typically competitive Granite State.  Republican challenger Corky Messner is likely to get crushed by double digits.  Final Prediction:  Shaheen +17 

New Jersey--One could imagine a defensive Democratic year when incumbent Senator Cory Booker might have a fight on his hands, but 2020 will not be that year and Booker is poised to dominate his low-profile GOP challenger Rik Mehta.   Final Prediction:  Booker +19

New Mexico--Democrats have been on a long roll in the majority Hispanic Land of Enchantment and I expect their winning streak to continue in this year's open Senate seat vacated by Democrat Tom Udall.  Democratic Congressman Ben Ray Lujan is Udall's would-be successor, and while polls show his GOP challenger, Albuquerque TV meteorologist Mark Ronchetti, not as far behind as I expected, the safe money remains on Lujan for a low double-digit victory.  Final Prediction:  Lujan +11

North Carolina--Back in August, I predicted the closest Senate race in the country would be in the Tar Heel State, where unpopular Republican incumbent Thom Tillis was trailing Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham.  At the time, I argued that the fundamentals of the race pointed to narrowing polls in the stretch and a photo finish.  But an October surprise came with the revelation of Cunningham's marital infidelity over the course of this campaign, putting a major dent in Cunningham's Captain America image.  It seemed as though Cunningham was in a ton of trouble, but polling since the scandal broke has not shown a fundamentally changed race, with most polls still indicating a small lead for Cunningham.  It amazes me that North Carolinians apparently view Tillis that negatively that they're even willing to tolerate the sleazy cheating antics of Cunningham over another Tillis term, particularly given the state's general conservative lean.  Given the lack of indication of any restored momentum for Tillis, I will continue to predict a very close race with Cunningham narrowly prevailing.  Just as in the Presidential race, I suspect Republicans will outperform the polling by a point or two, but in this case not enough to save Tillis.  Final Prediction:  Cunningham +1

Oklahoma--Television news personalities seem to be hot commodities for long shot races this year, and Democratic TV newswoman Abby Broyles, who is barely of age to run for the Senate, is the party's emissary for a run against geriatric long-time GOP incumbent Jim Inhofe in the Sooner State.  Broyles has zero chance of victory in one of the nation's most conservative states, but I'll be curious to see if she is able to outperform the traditionally anemic performance of recent Democratic Senate nominees this cycle.  Final Prediction:  Inhofe by 27

Oregon--The Beaver State has become a nearly impenetrable Democratic stronghold over the last generation so Democratic incumbent Jeff Merkley was poised for an easy victory in pursuit of his third term no matter who the Republicans put up, but QAnon extremist Jo Rae Perkins as the GOP emissary will really make Merkley's job easy this cycle.  Nonetheless, the state's escalated regional polarization still likely means that every county east of the Cascades, along with several in southwestern Oregon, will vote Perkins exclusively because of the (R) next to her name.  Final Prediction:  Merkley +20

Rhode Island--Not much to say about this race other than long-time Democratic incumbent Jack Reed should skate into his fifth term against token GOP challenger Allen Walters, whose party rescinded its endorsement of him after a domestic violence incident from last year made headlines.  Final Prediction:  Reed +33

South Carolina--Back in August, I predicted this race would quickly fall out of the battleground as the Republican partisan advantage in the Palmetto State was just too strong for plucky Democratic challenger Jamie Harrison to overcome in his epic quest to take down high-profile Republican incumbent Lindsey Graham.  In the end, I still think that will be the case, but damn if Harrison hasn't exceeded my wildest expectations.  Most polls show the race dead even, presumably with the leftward swing of the Charleston area helping Harrison turn the state nominally competitive, although one recent poll has indicated Graham has opened up a lead.  Harrison has gone so far as to hype a third-party challenger who has recently dropped out of the race simply as a means of skewing conservative votes away from Graham.  This kind of clever gambit to split the opposition may well be needed for Harrison to eke out even the narrowest win in South Carolina, and it's worth a shot but I still expect he'll fall short.  Particularly after Graham's aboutface on the Supreme Court nomination weeks before an election, I've been aching to see him unseated.  I'm still holding out hope it will happen, but I'm expecting South Carolina is just too far beyond a Democrat's grasp in all but a "Roy Moore-type situation", and for whatever Lindsey Graham's sins may be, he's not there.  Final Prediction:  Graham +3

South Dakota--The Mount Rushmore State has swung sharply to Republicans in the Trump era, and it was already a red state before Trump.  That should help Republican incumbent Mike Rounds coast to a second term against lightweight Democratic challenger Daniel Ahlers.  Final Prediction:  Rounds +30

Tennessee--The Democratic Party of the Volunteer State, such as there still is one, couldn't get their preferred candidate across the finish line in his primary, and face the daunting prospect of an open-seat race (Republican incumbent Lamar Alexander is retiring) with invisible Senate candidate Marquita Bradshaw.  The Republican candidate, former US Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty, should coast to a sweeping and comprehensive victory.  That would likely have happened even against the Democrats' preferred recruit as Tennessee has become one of the most impenetrably Republican states in the country, but when Bradshaw became the Democratic nominee, this race unequivocally dropped off the board.  Final Prediction:  Hagerty by 28

Texas--For the second cycle in a row, a Senate race in the Lone Star State has become competitive.  Back in August, I recognized Republican incumbent John Cornyn's race as being on the periphery of the battleground given the state's abrupt shift towards bipartisanship. While the race still leans to Cornyn, he's not exactly behaving like a guy expecting an easy win of late, recently volunteering to a reporter that he's disagreed with Trump on a number of issues over the years but decided not to pick a fight with him.  Somebody cruising to re-election doesn't say stuff like that a month before the election.  And sure enough, early voting numbers are showing a blistering spike in turnout coming from the exact kinds of places where Cornyn would least want to see them.  Ultimately I suspect Cornyn has enough goodwill with upscale suburban voters to outperform Trump and win the state modestly.  Most polls back that up, but we're in uncharted territory here with the fast pace of change in Texas and the prospect of Democrat MJ Hegar pulling out a win is entirely within the realm of possibilities.  Whatever happens, it's a very safe prediction that this will be Cornyn's closest race yet. Final Prediction:  Cornyn +5

Virginia--I went into the 2014 midterm cycle expecting Democrat Mark Warner to score a win of comparable size and breadth to his 2008 landslide.  Instead, he eked out a 1-point win in a race few expected would ever be close.  I'm much more confident of Warner's dominance this cycle, running against a third-rate GOP challenger in Daniel Gade and polls confirming a huge lead.   Don't expect to see any Warner strength in the Shenandoah Valley or southwest Virginia as we saw in past cycles though as that part of the state has permanently realigned to the GOP even as the state's population centers have consolidated for Democrats.   Final Prediction:  Warner +18

West Virginia--I had forgotten until recently that tough-guy populist Richard Ojeda had been the preferred Democratic candidate in this year's Senate primary but lost to environmental activist Paula Swearingen.  Ojeda would have been crushed against inoffensive GOP incumbent Shelly Moore Capito in the increasingly dark red Mountain State, but wouldn't have gotten the brutal spanking that Swearingen is about to be handed as the fierce critic to the state's powerful coal industry.  Swearingen definitely provides West Virginia voters a "choice", but it's a choice that will be soundly rejected in this extraction industry-friendly state.  Final Prediction:  Capito by 41

Wyoming--I saved the two most lopsided races for last.  Coincidentally, the race in Wyoming presents another extreme long shot environmental activist running as the Democratic nominee in a coal-producing state.  And just like in West Virginia, that's a formula for a bruising electoral defeat.   Democrat Marev Ben-David will get trounced by Republican Cynthia Lummis in this open seat vacated by long-time Republican Senator Mike Enzi.   Final Prediction:  Lummis by 40

Either I'm very stubborn when it comes to sticking to my original predictions about a race or else I'm just that good in predicting which states will be competitive months in advance, but none of my predictions have changed since August on any individual races.  Once again, I'm being conservative in guessing Democratic gains because I still think polls are undercounting noncollege white Republicans just as they did in the last three cycles.  It's the reason I'm one of the few at this point who still believe Joni Ernst will pull it out in Iowa.  But I'm still predicting the Democrats pick up four seats, and losing a seat only in Alabama, which will give them 50 seats and presumably a majority if Biden is elected President.  

It's entirely conceivable that Democrats could run the table in the competitive seats and the reach states, picking up as many as a dozen seats.  That would require Republican turnout to absolutely crater nationally and I don't see that with Trump's continued popularity with the party base.   Seems like most realistic elections analysts would only bet on five or at most six Democratic gains here due to complicating variables such as the runoff requirement in the Georgia races.  I suspect given how heavy of a lift it would be to pick off most of these reach states, the Democrats will consider it a good night if they win enough seats to dethrone Mitch McConnell from his majority.  Plus, I don't think most Democrats really want the responsibility of packing the Supreme Court on their shoulders, so winning a bare majority of 50 seats would give them a measure of deniability in explaining to voters in subsequent cycles why they weren't able to pull it off.

Final 2020 Presidential Predictions

I always consider it cheating to wait till two days before the election to make my final calls so, as is my tradition, I'm going on record in mid-October with my last round of predictions.  It's a risky gambit, insofar as there are consequences for being incorrect about mere predictions, as we saw in 2016 when the James Comey letter reopening the FBI investigation against Hillary Clinton dropped 11 days before the election.  In 2020 of all years, another October surprise every bit that consequential could very well emerge to disrupt this election as well.  But ultimately the level of polarization this cycle makes me doubtful that almost anything could alter the trajectory of this race, especially when accounting for the fact that 20% of the electorate has likely already cast a ballot.

So where do things stand?  Donald Trump is losing.  The magnitude of his pending defeat remains a matter of debate, but he's definitively behind and showing no signs of the momentum needed to reverse his spiral.  There are a number of scenarios I could have envisioned a year ago for how this race would go, but I'll admit the potential for a Jimmy Carter 1980-style incumbent drubbing was never under serious consideration.  Of course, a once-in-a-century global pandemic and ensuing economic recession was never on my radar for 2020 either.  If not for this pandemic, I'm mildly confident that Trump would be on a glide path to a narrow Electoral College victory next month.  The economy would still be humming at an impressive clip, unemployment would be at historic lows, and Trump would be on offense litigating the immigration positions that Democrats, including Biden, took in the primaries that have 65+% disapproval ratings.  He'd have an impressive story to tell about his favorite issue of trade agreements, which happens to overlap with the policy priorities of swing voters in Midwestern battleground states, and where even I must confess he dramatically exceeded my expectations on what was possible in the realm of "renegotiating NAFTA".  He'd probably even have more traction on his law and order messaging in response to this summer's protests and racial unrest had the national storyline not been so completely reset.

Yet that's not happening.  When Trump's campaign playbook was thrown out due to events, he never found his footing.  The swagger he enjoyed while on offense came across as juvenile, unserious, and most importantly, unfocused, when he was on defense with the world on fire on his watch.  His lack of professionalism served him well as a brash, insurgent outsider facing Hillary Clinton looking to build a coalition of voters salivating at the prospect of sticking it to the establishment....but it's served him horribly under the bright light of adversity.  His message was so on-point to his target audience four years ago, but it only recently hit me how much that is not the case this year.  Trump’s biggest messaging problem this cycle is that he's stuck in the conservative media bubble and has lost touch with those voters he successfully spoke to in 2016.  This last week at his Des Moines rally he tried to get an applause line by telling the crowd the “good news” that they finally got rid of Bruce Orr.  Needless to say, he’s defining victory downward from the days of building a wall and making Mexico pay for it.  The result has been that even those partial to his messaging couldn't really tell you what the message is for 2020, or especially for 2021 and beyond.

While demographic subsamples within polls tend to have a high margin of error and should be taken with a grain of salt, two consistent patterns are emerging that point to where Biden's margin is coming from.  The more predictable of the two is upscale, college-educated women from the suburbs. The more surprising second group is seniors.  The overwhelming consensus has been that old white guys were Trump's most unflappable base of support, but it seems there's one issue capable of souring this demographic on the current President, and that's a failure to take seriously a global pandemic putting their lives in jeopardy.

So is a massive Electoral College landslide imminent?  It's possible, but I'm still erring on the conservative side with my electoral predictions because it's unclear to me that there's been any erosion at all in Trump's support among noncollege whites, who also happen to be the most under-the-radar demographic for pollsters.  The Midwestern cohort of noncollege whites is the demographic that helped Obama turn his four-point popular vote win in 2012 into an Electoral College rout of 332-206 over Mitt Romney.  If those Obama-Trump voters are mostly back on board, then the sky is the limit for Biden in tipping the scales in states like Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina.  But I'm skeptical they are....because most of them stuck with the GOP in the 2018 midterms, and throughout the white working-class heavy Midwest, Republicans outperformed polls because of it.  There's always a danger in "fighting the last war" when trying to interpret polls and I may well be guilty of it, not appreciating how comprehensive Biden's pending coalition is.  That puts me in danger of making the wrong call on several states where I still think the undercounting of noncollege whites in polls means Trump will narrowly pull it out in a number of battleground states.  But without further adieu, I'll go on record in making those calls and we'll see how right my instincts are.....

Alabama--There's little dispute that Biden is poised to make huge gains among suburban and college-educated voters compared to Hillary four years ago, but will that trend extend all the way into the Deep South?  Will places like the Birmingham suburbs and aerospace-heavy Huntsville, Alabama, see gains for Biden comparable to what's expected elsewhere in the country?  I suspect to some degree they will, and am now doubtful that there will be too many states where Trump does as good or better as he did four years ago, which I wouldn't have expected to be the case last year at this time.  2016 Result....Trump +28.   2020 Prediction....Trump +23.

Alaska--The Last Frontier has long been the hardest state in the country to poll so there's little quality information available to base my prediction on, but Alaska has been getting closer than the 2-1 GOP stronghold it was a generation ago and I expect that pattern to continue this year, even though it will likely remain comfortably red.  2016 Result....Trump +15.   2020 Prediction....Trump +10.

Arizona--Little has changed since July when I last predicted a modest Biden win in the Grand Canyon State, which has trended decisively Democratic in the Trump era.  The core of this realignment has come from Maricopa County, which includes all of metropolitan Phoenix and more than 60% of the state's population.  For generations, it's been one of the nation's most heavily populated Republican strongholds.  But with racial diversification and upscale seniors no longer onboard with Trump, Maricopa County will no longer be a GOP bastion in 2020, and its flipping will take the state of Arizona to the blue column with it.  2016 Result.....Trump +3.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +4.

Arkansas--Not that long ago, the Natural State was the only Southern state that was remotely winnable for Democrats.  Now it's one of the least competitive GOP strongholds in the nation.  Even so, there are some indications that the Little Rock suburbs are shifting in a blue direction just as suburbs elsewhere are.  A surge in Democratic voting among upscale suburbanites means less in Arkansas than it does in most of the country, but I suspect even here it will be enough to move the numbers closer for Biden than what the state's former First Lady scored four years ago.  2016 Result....Trump +27.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +24.

California--A decade ago, I figured it was only a matter of time until there would be a correction to the Democrats' domination of the Golden State with at least some degree of realignment that made Republicans competitive in more of the state's territory.  Boy was I wrong.  Democrats currently hold a mind-bending 46 of the state's 53 U.S. House seats and that dominance makes clear how comprehensive the party's clutch is over California and why it will be one of Trump's worst states next month.   2016 Result....Hillary +30.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +34.

Colorado--A generation ago, Colorado leaned red.  Its politics have shifted left of the national average with the help of the exact demographic groups most hostile to Trump....nonwhites and upscale college-educated voters in suburban Denver and granola ski resort towns dotting the Rockies.  It won't end well for Trump there this year.   2016 Result....Hillary +5.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +10.

Connecticut--I expect the Northeast to shift more toward Biden than any other region this year as, aside from the shrinking ranks of white ethnics in crumbling mill towns, its demographics really don't fit Trumpism.   The Nutmeg State is likely to be at the forefront of this steep shift to Biden.  2016 Result....Hillary +14.   2020 Prediction....Biden +23.

Delaware--Even if Biden wasn't Delaware's home state Senator for nearly a half century, the state's demographic profile would be disastrous for Trump.  Since Biden is a Delaware native son, expect him to absolutely clean up here.   2016 Result.....Hillary +11.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +27.

District of Columbia--Even as white "deep state" liberals gentrify the formerly majority black capital city, it just keeps getting bluer and bluer each cycle, and likely will again this year.   2016 Result.....Hillary +87.   2020 Prediction....Biden +89.

Florida--It wouldn't be an election cycle in America without a complex matrix of competing demographic forces making the Sunshine State a bear cat to predict.  Seniors and suburban voters are trending Democrat this year, which would seem to be a good omen for Biden.  But in the last decade, Florida has been a magnet for a particularly conservative and tax-averse cohort of retirees.  Furthermore, the South Florida Cuban community was uniquely chilly toward Trump four years ago but polling this year has consistently shown they've grown more comfortable with him by double-digit margins.  Just as is always the case, statewide polling is showing a narrow Democratic edge with some regional polling out of the Tampa-St. Petersburg area really pointing to huge movement toward Biden.  I've been vindicated multiple times predicting a narrow Republican win in the Sunshine State in recent cycles and will do so again this year, but it's on the knife's edge and I wouldn't be surprised if Biden flipped it.  The most surprising result would be a decisive win (more than 3 points) in either direction.  2016 Result.....Trump +1.   2020 Prediction....Trump +1.

Georgia--The Peach State has not been a genuine battleground for a generation but it sure is this year.  The disconnect is pretty amusing as the pollsters are out in full force this year surveying Georgia, with a pretty even split between ties, narrow Biden leads, and narrow Trump leads, all within the margin of error.  On the other hand, neither candidate has treated Georgia like a swing state until the last couple of weeks, limiting ad buys in the media markets.  I guess it makes a degree of sense because the Atlanta market is expensive and the longer they waited before investing there, the better financial situation their campaigns would find themselves in.  Still, it felt like nobody believed Georgia was really part of the battleground until recently.  Trump was campaigning in Macon this past Friday, decidedly not the place his campaign would want to be defending 18 days before the election.  Despite the rapid demographic shift in Georgia and the unmistakable movement among upscale whites in the Atlanta suburbs, I'm betting the good old boys have not been sufficiently polled and that the Old South pulls out one more victory for the GOP here.  But I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Biden crosses the finish line ahead of Trump by a nose either.   2016 Result....Trump +5.   2020 Prediction....Trump +2.

Hawaii--Moving onto a much easier jurisdiction to predict, the Aloha State couldn't possibly be more demographically hostile terrain for Donald Trump.  The state is usually a reliable Democratic stronghold and will be again this year.   2016 Result....Hillary +32.   2020 Prediction....Biden +36.

Idaho--Only nine states have voted Republican in the last 13 Presidential elections.  Idaho is one of them....and its streak will certainly continue.  Even here though, I suspect some diversifying demographics, along with continued coolness toward Trump among Mormons, will cut Trump's margin from four years ago.   2016 Result....Trump +32.   2020 Prediction....Trump +26.

Illinois--The suburbs of Chicago used to be the Republican counterweight that made the GOP competitive in the Land of Lincoln.  That's still the case some cycles, but even four years ago Trump cratered in the Chicago suburbs.  This year, he'll likely do even worse there.  The question now is whether the downstate counties will perform well enough for Trump to keep Biden's margins from reaching what favorite son Obama scored there in 2008.  Even downstate, I think Trump probably will probably see some erosion.  2016 Result....Hillary +17.  2020 Prediction.....Biden +23.

Indiana--It's crazy to recall the increasingly conservative Hoosier State's brief dance with Democrats in 2006 and 2008, going so far as to cast its 11 electoral votes for Obama in 2008.  It's certainly reverted to its dark red state form since then, even with the Indianapolis metro area swinging sharply in Democrats' direction.  I saw one Indiana poll suggesting the race is competitive but I'm not buying it, especially after Democratic Senator Joe Donnelly's six-point defeat against his empty suit challenger in the heavily Democratic year of 2018.  Indiana will be less red than four years ago, but will still be very red.   2016 Result.....Trump +19.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +12.

Iowa--Due to the national tide, I'm no longer expecting the high-single-digit Trump victory in the Hawkeye State I was predicting in July, but I still think Trump will win it decisively despite polls suggesting the state is tied.  Iowa has among the highest rural, noncollege white vote in the country and I have serious doubts that those voters are moving to Biden in significant numbers.  While what passes for big cities and suburbs in Iowa are undoubtedly shifting strongly for Biden, I suspect pollsters are weighting these voters too heavily just as they have the last three cycles.  On the other hand, if Biden pulls off a win in Iowa and we see an electoral map where those Mississippi River valley counties in eastern Iowa are colored blue again, then I'll take my lumps and admit I was wrong about the realignment of the WWC Obama-Trump voter in the Midwest moving permanently and irrefutably to the GOP column.  But I have my doubts.   2016 Result....Trump +9.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +4.

Kansas--There's some intriguing chatter coming out of the Sunflower State that the long-standing unwieldy coalition of rural conservatives and Kansas City moderates is breaking down to the point that Biden may be within striking distance in the state.  I'm skeptical the Republican schism will be that dramatic, but given the outsized prevalence of suburban Kansas City in the state's dominant Republican Party and their slow-motion divorce from the GOP in the Trump era, I'm suspecting the closest race in Kansas in 28 years, albeit with Trump still winning.   The disastrous gubernatorial tenure of Sam Brownback really seems to have impacted the state of play in Kansas, and Trump has accelerated the realignment.  2016 Result....Trump +21.    2020 Prediction......Trump +11.

Kentucky--Given its predominantly rural and Appalachian profile, the Bluegrass State will almost certainly remain one of Trump's best states and probably won't swing the Democrats' direction as strongly as the rest of the country, but last year's gubernatorial race nonetheless offered a preview of potentially shifting sands in some regions.  Metropolitan Louisville, Lexington, and the previously die-hard conservative southern suburbs of Cincinnati will probably all swing by double-digits to Biden this year.  It's possible there will be some leftover angst from the Breonna Taylor incident that will cut both ways electorally, however, with rural Kentucky potentially getting even redder.  Either way, it won't be close.   2016 Result.....Trump +30.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +26.

Louisiana--Like Kentucky, we got a bit of a preview of where the partisan winds are blowing in Louisiana last year with their gubernatorial race and the patterns matched the expected trends nationally, with rural areas getting redder than ever while the suburbs are shifting substantially blue.  The Pelican State is far too heavy of a lift for Biden and I think the Democrat shift here will lag that of the country at large, but those New Orleans and Baton Rouge suburbs will undoubtedly help move the needle a little away from Trump this year just like elsewhere.   2016 Result.....Trump +20.    2020 Prediction.....Trump +18.

Maine--In my review of Connecticut, I predicted that the Northeast seemed poised to swing more towards Biden than any other region of the country.  The most consequential impact of this trend will be seen in Maine, which had a Trumpy profile four years ago despite a narrow Hillary win, but where polls indicate a reversion to form to the Obama years where Maine went Democrat by double digits.  Maine apportions its electoral votes based on Congressional district wins and one of the few changes from my August predictions is that I now expect Biden will flip the ME-02 district in the northern part of the state, which would be no small feat given Trump's double-digit domination there in 2016.  That call is still a bit of a stretch, but the polling bears it out.   2016 Result....Hillary +3.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +11.   ME-02 2016 Result.....Trump +10.   ME-02 2020 Prediction.....Biden +1.

Maryland--The DC orbit has completely devoured what was already one of the best states in the country for Democrats, and the Old Line State will only get bluer and further out of reach for Republicans with each election cycle, at least in federal races.   2016 Result....Hillary +27.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +32.

Massachusetts--The Bay State is full of white ethnic conservative Democrats and still has a lot of decaying old mill towns where I expected Trump's message would be catnip in 2016 and thus predicted a dramatic narrowing of typical Democratic margins there.  To my surprise, Hillary improved upon Obama's margins in the state and precinct returns suggest Massachusetts may have been one of the few places in the country where downscale whites rejected Trump.  With that in mind, the highly educated profile of the rest of the state will drive its politics even further toward Biden this year.   2016 Result....Hillary +28.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +33.

Michigan--Trump's surprise narrow win in the Wolverine State four years ago can be explained entirely by a dramatic turnout decline in Detroit, where tens of thousands of fewer black voters showed up compared to 2012.  If even half of those voters turn out again this time, Biden will win Michigan, and should be accompanied with a sharp shift toward Biden in the suburbs of Detroit and Grand Rapids to help him run up the score.  The old Michigan map with considerable patches of blue-leaning rural areas is likely gone though, as those rural voters will probably stick with Trump.  2016 Result.....Trump +0.2.   2020 Prediction....Biden +6.

Minnesota--I'm coming around to the idea that the Gopher State will be a relatively comfortable win for Biden this year, despite some early hesitation.  And certainly, Biden's coalition is unlikely to look much like Obama's, who won significant patches of rural territory in every corner of the state.  Biden's victory will be brought about almost exclusively by the Twin Cities and probably fast-growing Rochester in southeastern Minnesota.  That's very disappointing for someone who grew up in rural Minnesota and loved how the state's rural regions held together for Democrats longer than demographically similar areas did elsewhere in the country, but at least for the time being a win is a win.  2016 Result....Hillary +1.   2020 Prediction....Biden +7.

Mississippi--The only thing remotely unpredictable about the Magnolia State is whether black turnout is strong enough for the Democrats to lose merely by low-teen margins or whether black turnout lags and the Democrats lose by margins in the high teens.  Four years ago, it was the latter and Trump won comfortably.  With a nominally competitive Senate race this year, I'm expecting black turnout will tick up and probably trim Trump's winning margins a bit.  2016 Result....Trump +18.  2020 Prediction....Trump +14.

Missouri--There are some tea leaves indicating the Show Me State might be less Trumpy in 2020 than it was four years ago, despite the state's unmistakable Republican trend in the last 20 years.  Polls are indicating a single digit race and this past summer's Medicaid expansion vote passed due to blistering margins of support out of Kansas City and St. Louis suburbs.   I expect Biden will hang on to much of those suburban gains, but the rest of the state will remain so unforgivingly red that Trump will still win decisively.   2016 Result....Trump +19.   2020 Prediction....Trump +13.

Montana--The Treasure State is one of the few truly flexible states in the country politically, even with the substantial Republican advantage in Presidential elections.  As recently as 2008, McCain only beat Obama there by two points.  Polling for this cycle strikes me as a bit too bullish for Biden, undercounting noncollege votes just as has been the case all over the country in recent years, but I do expect a sharp move away from Trump, aided by the fact that the state's growth centers are all heavily Democratic.  With that said, I wouldn't think there'd be much appetite for Biden's palate of mask mandates and social distancing requirements in a place like Montana, so I'm tempering expectations some.   2016 Result.....Trump +21.  2020 Prediction....Trump +12.

Nebraska--The divergence in the politics of the Cornhusker State over the past generation has been remarkable.   It used to lean even more heavily Republican but its electorate was much more elastic in considering Democrats for downballot races.  Its no longer elastic, but it is regionally divided, with the Omaha area that used to be as Republican as the rest of the state having shifted decidedly blue.  This matters a lot in Nebraska since the state apportions its electoral votes based on Congressional district wins.  As a result, even though Trump will cruise statewide, the campaign has all but conceded that Biden will comfortably win the Omaha-centered Congressional district and yield a single electoral vote for Biden even amidst a double-digit statewide defeat.   2016 Result....Trump +26.   2020 Prediction....Trump +21.    NE-02 2016 Result....Trump +2.    NE-02 2020 Prediction....Biden +5.

Nevada--I still don't know what to think of the state of affairs in the Silver State.  I'm confident Biden will win it but I'm not sure by how much.  During the Obama years, it seemed like Nevada had become out of reach for Republicans, with diversifying demographics making it an increasingly untenable fit for the GOP.  But in 2016, the shrinking white population consolidated around Trump and made it close, and there are some indications that that trend is holding, with casino workers in particular looking like a Trump-friendly demographic.  With that in mind, I'm betting that Nevada moves less in Biden's direction than the country at large next month, but still enough for a comfortable win.   2016 Result....Hillary +2.   2020 Prediction....Biden +6.

New Hampshire--The narrowest Democratic win of 2016 is very unlikely to be that narrow four years later.  In keeping with my prediction of the Northeast being a Biden stronghold, I expect New Hampshire to comfortably consolidate into the Biden column.  2016 Result.....Hillary +0.4.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +9.

New Jersey--What's left of the white ethnic population in the Garden State moved a bit to Trump four years ago, particularly in South Jersey, but less than what I expected.  The tea leaves this year suggest Trump is struggling to even maintain that foothold in 2020, and I foresee the most lopsided Democratic victory in Jersey in generations.  2016 Result....Hillary +14.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +19.

New Mexico--With former Governor Gary Johnson finally off the ballot this year, and not getting 9% of the Presidential vote like he did four years ago, there's a bit more volatility in New Mexico than in most states.  Given the state's demographic profile, however, it's a good bet that an outsized share of that Johnson vote is going to Biden this year.  It's been close to a year since the Trump campaign even entertained the notion of a potential victory there, and I suspect that's for good reason.   2016 Result....Hillary +8.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +14.

New York--Particularly in upstate New York, Trump made significant gains four years ago compared to Romney four years earlier.  But early tea leaves suggest that like the rest of the Northeast, the Empire State has comprehensively turned on the man who has one of the nation's tallest skyscrapers there, both in the city and upstate.   2016 Result.....Hillary +23.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +31.

North Carolina--Polling indicates a competitive race in the Tar Heel State, but a notably consistent pattern has been a smaller shift toward Biden here than the rest of the country.  Given the regular undersampling of Republican demographics in polls, I'm still inclined to bet on Trump pulling this one out this year.  If Biden does hold on to win, then we may have finally reached the demographic tipping point that's always seemed right at the Democrats' fingertips in this state.  2016 Result.....Trump +4.  2020 Prediction.....Trump +1.

North Dakota--I never expected Hillary Clinton to be "popular" in the Flickertail State, but the monstrous drubbing she received at the hands of Trump was nonetheless eye-popping for a state where McCain only beat Obama by single digits.  In the four years since 2016, the North Dakota oil boom has ebbed quite a bit and the state's small cities like Fargo and Bismarck have demographic profiles increasingly consistent with metro areas that appear to be shifting massively toward Biden elsewhere in the country.  North Dakota won't be particularly close this cycle but I still expect it move Democrat proportionally more than just about anywhere else.  2016 Result.....Trump +36.    2020 Prediction....Trump +23.

Ohio--If you believe the polls, the Buckeye State is a jump ball this cycle even after a gigantic swing to Trump in 2016.  I don't believe the polls, expecting that once again working-class whites who love Trump are being undersampled in this most white working-class state.  I can buy that Biden is surging in suburban Columbus and Cincinnati just as he is in demographically similar places elsewhere in the country, but there just aren't enough places that fit this profile in Ohio to make the state within reach for Biden.  While I'm reining in expectations for Trump's margin compared to July, I'm still betting on a decisive Trump victory in Ohio.   2016 Result....Trump +8.   2020 Prediction....Trump +4.

Oklahoma--Long one of the reddest states in the country, the Sooner State has likely bottomed out for Democrats with a slight rebound on the horizon.  The Oklahoma City metro area, long one of the most conservative in America, is driving the Democratic insurgence, to the point of a surprise Democratic win in its Congressional seat in 2018.  But to be clear, Oklahoma will still be bright red for Trump this year, its rural areas having already realigned to crimson red.   2016 Result.....Trump +36.   2020 Prediction....Trump +28.

Oregon--As Portland becomes an endlessly disruptive Antifa stronghold plagued by a near-daily tidal wave of cultural unrest and radicalization, the rest of the state is showing signs of realigning.  That won't be enough to save Donald Trump in the Beaver State, where he never had a chance to begin with, but does point to a future where Oregon elections could become competitive again.   2016 Result.....Hillary +11.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +14.

Pennsylvania--The easy political bet on the Keystone State in recent years has always been that the blue-trending Philadelphia suburbs would save the day for Democrats even as much of the rest of the state trends the other way.  That didn't happen in 2016 and there were some signs not that long ago that it might not happen in 2020 either, but polls are really beginning to consolidate for Biden in a way they never did for Hillary four years ago, with most polling pointing to huge Biden gains in the upscale Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs.  On the other hand, I'm less confident now than I was in July that Biden will glean any hometown advantage in traditionally Democratic northeastern Pennsylvania near Scranton, a white working-class stronghold where I suspect Trump's messaging still prevails and produces margins much closer to 2016 than in 2012 or before.   2016 Result.....Trump +1.   2020 Prediction....Biden +4.

Rhode Island--The Ocean State has long been one of the most Democratic states in the country, but the party's strength there has always been somewhat of a mirage, with conservative white ethnics aligning with the Democrats largely because it was a one-party state, creating a feedback loop where voters always follow the marching orders of the machine in the name of patronage and the cycle is self-reinforcing.  Trump shook that up a bit and moved the needle dramatically his direction in 2016.  The state wasn't close and won't be this year either, but I suspect those blue-collar Italians and Irish will continue to vote in 2020 much like they did four years earlier, and take Rhode Island out of the running of being in the top tier of Democratic states.   2016 Result.....Hillary +16.    2020 Result.....Biden +19.

South Carolina--As was previewed in the 2018 midterms, the Charleston area seems to be driving a Democratic shift in the Palmetto State.  It's too soon to say how large and how durable that shift will be but I've seen enough to be convinced that this notoriously inelastic state will hand Trump his weakest margin of victory for any Republican in decades, potentially with even more surprises downballot.   2016 Result.....Trump +14.   2020 Prediction....Trump +7.

South Dakota--The Republicans consolidated support in both of the Dakotas in recent years and I suspect that will continue in 2020 with the Mount Rushmore State's trendline drifting considerably to the right of the country.  With that said, the demographics of the fast-growing Sioux Falls area seem very Biden-friendly and will probably limit Trump's growth potential elsewhere in the state.   2016 Result.....Trump +30.   2020 Prediction....Trump +23.

Tennessee--Along with neighboring Arkansas, the Volunteer State has morphed from one of the most moderate states of the Old Confederacy to an uncontested Republican stronghold in the past generation.  For every trend toward Democrats in the state's population centers of Memphis, Nashville, Knoxville, and Chattanooga, the Republicans find a way to squeeze even more consolidated support out of the rest of the state.  Trump probably won't dominate quite as thoroughly as he did four years ago, but Tennessee will remain one of the most hopeless causes for Democrats in the nation.   2016 Result....Trump +26.   2020 Prediction....Trump +22.

Texas--I'm really flying blind in trying to understand how badly the long-dominant GOP is slumping in the Lone Star State.  The 2018 midterm was an alarming red flag for the party, and heading into the final weeks of this cycle, the flush-with-cash Biden campaign is pouring resources into Texas advertising that the Trump campaign won't be able to afford to reciprocate.  A Biden upset remains a long shot, but at this point decidedly less unlikely even than it was in July.   2016 Result....Trump +9.  2020 Prediction.....Trump +3.

Utah--The only state where I can definitively predict Trump will improve upon his 2016 number is the Beehive State, given that Mormon Evan McMullin ran as a third-party conservative and got 21% of the vote, holding Trump to 45% of the overall vote.  Without McMullin or a credible third-party conservative option for disenchanted Mormon votes to pull the lever for this year, I can predict that Trump will go well over 50% of the vote this time, but that Biden will also do much better than the 27% Hillary Clinton got in Utah.  This ultimately creates something of a mirage of Trump improvement in Utah, but he will most definitely still win in what had been the strongest state for Republicans in the country for generations.   2016 Result....Trump +18.   2020 Prediction.....Trump +22.

Vermont--Soft turnout and heightened third-party voting both contributed to a shrunken Hillary Clinton margin than Democrats have been used to in recent years in the liberal Green Mountain State.  She still won by a landslide, however, and I expect Biden to consolidate most of the third-party migrators this cycle.   2016 Result.....Hillary +28.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +34.

Virginia--Only a generation removed from being one of the most reliably Republican Southern states, the Old Dominion is now uncontested by both parties and a Democratic cinch up and down the ballot.  The fact that the state has largely become a DC outpost over the years has certainly helped with that, and its diversifying demographics and high concentration of college-educated whites is accelerating the state's realignment as considerably bluer than the national average.   2016 Result....Hillary +5.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +12.

Washington--Just like in neighboring Oregon, I suspect a degree of realignment in the years ahead in the Evergreen State to push back against the left-wing excesses of Seattle.  We might even see some of that in 2020 in the state's smaller cities and certainly in rural areas east of the Cascades, but it won't be enough to get wildly unpopular Donald Trump anywhere close to the finish line.  2016 Result....Hillary +16.   2020 Prediction.....Biden +19.

West Virginia--Have Democrats bottomed out in the Almost Heaven State?  It would be hard for Trump to do better there than he did against Hillary Clinton where he won every single county in the state by double digits, and the little available polling suggests one of the biggest swings in the nation toward Biden.  But if there's one thing you can set your watch by every election cycle it's polling in West Virginia that lowballs Republican strength by huge margins.  Nonetheless, I expect both things will be true.   West Virginia will continue to be one of Trump's best states in the country in 2020, but that Biden will see some of his best improvements compared to Hillary here.  2016 Result....Trump +42.   2020 Prediction....Trump +33.

Wisconsin--I've been very surprised by the consistency of polling that shows Biden with a comfortable lead in the Badger State in recent months.  I had written it off as a lean Trump state as recently as six months ago.  Of course, there was no other state where the polls were more consistently wrong in 2016 than in Wisconsin so I'm still a bit hesitant, but nonetheless accept with the size and consistency of Biden polling leads that this is a done deal.  But the big question....where is this improvement coming from?   The notoriously Republican stronghold suburban counties surrounding Milwaukee?  Democrats coming home in rural western Wisconsin?  A combination of both?  There are a number of mysteries I can't wait to see solved on election night and the source of the vote shift in Wisconsin is near the top of the list.  2016 Result...Trump +1.   2020 Prediction....Biden +5.

Wyoming--Trump's best state in 2016 and probably his best state in 2020.  Will Biden improve upon Hillary Clinton's terrible numbers?  I suspect so, but not by a ton.  There hasn't been any polling to give me any indication either way.   2016 Result...Trump +48.   2020 Prediction....Trump +43.

 

So roughly three months after I made my first round of state-by-state predictions for the Presidential race, my final call results in a shift of exactly one electoral vote.  In July, I predicted Biden would prevail 290-248.  In mid-October, with the addition of the second Congressional district in Maine to Biden's haul, I'm predicting 291-247 Biden.  Now obviously if my guesses are less than two percentage points off in Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina alone, that would mean the difference of 60 electoral votes shifted from Trump's column to Biden's, if that gives you any indication of how narrow of a breeze is needed to tip Electoral College votes.  It also reinforces the point I made last month about how tremendous the Republican advantage currently is in the Electoral College given that I'm currently predicting a 6-7-point Biden advantage in the popular vote, similar to what Obama got in 2008, yet only 291 electoral votes for Biden compared to 365 electoral votes for Obama.   Still, even my conservative estimate should be enough to make it clear within 48 hours of election night that Biden is the winner with a comfortable enough margin that Amy Coney Barrett is unlikely to get the chance to be the spoiler.

Barring an explosive October surprise that reverses momentum at breakneck speed with two weeks to go, the biggest takeaway from this election is likely to be that Democrats chose wisely with their nominee.  As uninspiring as the geriatric Biden is to most people, he nonetheless seems poised to channel the enthusiasm of base Democratic voters who hate Trump while hanging on to more moderate Democrats and passing the acceptability threshold of conservative-leaning independents in the suburbs.  There weren't many Democrats in this year's primary who could have done that, and despite their deep misgivings about Trump, I think a significant faction of Biden's pending coalition would not be onboard if most of the other Democrats in the primary field had prevailed, particularly Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders.

Beyond that, Biden had incredible luck in being able to stay out of the limelight and not expose his glaring downsides as a candidate as would inevitably have happened in a traditional campaign.  Of course what has served him well during the campaign will serve him poorly come January when he owns the mess he's inheriting.  Democrats had best enjoy their big win next month, take advantage of it when it comes to redistricting, and then hang on tight for a brutal rebuke in the cycles ahead.  Trump may have deepened divisions in America, but they were festering long before he came around and seem unlikely to ebb as every negative ongoing trend in American life worsens as a consequence of COVID.  The first week in November should be exciting as most Presidential elections are, but after that there won't be too many smiles to enjoy by either party, or the voting public, for quite some time moving forward.