Predictions on 2020 Governor Races and House Races (And Final Thoughts on Presidential Race)

In a Presidential cycle, the focus tends to be entirely on Presidential and Senate races in a way that's not the case in the midterms.  I'm as guilty of that as anybody, particularly since I don't live in a state with a gubernatorial election.  Nonetheless, there are 11 Governor races this cycle that deserve a round of analysis.  And of course all 435 U.S. House members are on the ballot again, which also deserves some looking into and some generalized predictions.  I'll start with the Governor's races....

Delaware--The Republicans haven't won a gubernatorial election in Delaware since 1988, which is an interesting line of demarcation from the First State's long-standing Republican lean to its modern reputation as an uncontested blue state.  It would have been quite odd back in 1988 to predict that Republicans would be shut out of the Delaware statehouse for the next 35 years.  Still, don't expect the streak of Democratic dominance to end this year as incumbent Democrat John Carney should cruise into a second term against token GOP challenger Julianne Murray.   Prediction:  Carney +26

Indiana--It's a three-way race in the Hoosier State with Democrat Woody Myers and Libertarian Donald Rainwater both challenging incumbent Republican Eric Holcomb.  Myers is unlikely to get another more than the core Democratic base, to whatever degree there is such a thing in Indiana, but Rainwater is challenging Holcomb from the right over COVID restrictions and drawing a decent share of virus-fatigued voters in the process.  Holcomb is a notoriously moderate Republican who would win in a cakewalk against Myers, but Rainwater is certainly gonna cut into Holcomb's margins, possibly by double digits, and could hold Holcomb to under 50%.  It's still hard to imagine a scenario where Holcomb doesn't win with competition this divided.   Prediction:  Holcomb +18

Missouri--Two years ago, Missouri all but completely formalized its realignment as a bright red state when Republicans swept every statewide office even in a Democratic wave election nationally.....except for one.  Democrat Nicole Galloway found a way to win the State Auditor race in 2018.  Now, Galloway is giving it a go in the gubernatorial race against incumbent Republican Mike Parson, who seemed potentially vulnerable a year ago.  It hasn't turned out that way though as Galloway hasn't caught on as a nominee and the limited available public polling is showing Parson running ahead of Trump, which I never would have imagined.   It's a shame that Galloway is likely to spend the political capital she accrued in 2018 on this quixotic gubernatorial run, weakening her for future statewide runs.  Prediction:  Parson +14

Montana--One of the few competitive gubernatorial races this cycle is in the Treasure State, a state where just about every race on the ballot this year could be headed for a photo finish.  Unfortunately for Democrats, they're an underdog to maintain their long hold on the Montana statehouse this year, a victim of their own success after 16 years under Democratic control which seems to have voters in the mood for a change.  Keeping Democrats in the game is the less-than-popular GOP nominee, current Congressman Greg Gianforte who famously assaulted a reporter on the eve of an election a few years back and was hard for Montanans to love even before then.  Still, Gianforte has a modest lead in most polls against current Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mike Cooney.  An upset is not out of the question given Gianforte's unfavorables, but Cooney's liberalism might be a bridge too far for Democrats' prospect of a fifth consecutive gubernatorial term.  Prediction:  Gianforte +6

New Hampshire--The Granite State is one of only two states to hold gubernatorial elections every two years rather than four.  Two-term Republican incumbent Chris Sununu is a very heavy favorite to win a third term over his Democratic challenger, state Senator Dan Feltes.  There's some chatter about Sununu suffering counter-coattails due to Republican weakness on the Presidential and Senate lines in his state, but I suspect voters will compartmentalize those races and split their tickets enough for Sununu to win a sweeping re-election win.  Prediction:  Sununu +16

North Carolina--Back in 2016, it took a month to verify that the winner of the Tar Heel State's hotly contested gubernatorial election was Democrat Roy Cooper, who eked out a 10,000-vote win against an incumbent Republican out of 2.6 million total votes cast.  Cooper should have a much easier time winning a second term against his 2020 Republican challenger, Lieutenant Governor Dan Forest.  Most polls show Cooper running comfortably ahead of his party's nominees for President and U.S. Senate, where the races are more competitive.  Prediction:  Cooper +9

North Dakota--Not that long ago, the Flickertail State was very bipartisan in federal races, electing Democrats to U.S. House and Senate seats for decades.  But even when North Dakota flirted with Democrats federally, Republicans still dominated the statehouse, winning every gubernatorial election since 1992.  That streak will easily continue this year with Republican incumbent Doug Burgum running for a second term where he's poised to crush his low-profile Democratic challenger Shelley Lenz.  It seems like it would take a huge scandal or some level of massive executive incompetence for Democrats to have a chance at winning a North Dakota Governor's race, and it's doubtful that even the highest COVID case count in America is gonna be enough.  Prediction:  Burgum +44

Utah--The streak of Republican governance of the Beehive State is even longer than North Dakota's with Utah electing nothing but Republicans since 1984.  Even though this year's race is an open seat to replace retiring Republican Gary Herbert, it's still not likely to be competitive.  Current GOP Lieutenant Governor Spencer Cox stands poised to crush his Democratic challenger, a random law professor named Christopher Peterson.  The only thing buzzworthy about this race was that the two candidates ran an ad standing next to each other calling for unity, which was a nice gesture in these hostile partisan times.  Prediction:  Cox +40

Vermont--Like neighboring New Hampshire, the Mountain State has gubernatorial states every two years and Republican Phil Scott is running for a third term.  Despite being one of the most Democratic states in the country, Scott is expected to handily win re-election against Democratic challenger David Zuckerman, the state's current Lieutenant Governor.  In addition to a residual affinity for the Yankee Republican tradition in the state, voters in deep blue states often like a moderate Republican Governor as a check against overwhelmingly Democratic legislatures, and Scott fills that mostly administrative role to voters' liking.   Prediction:  Scott +15

Washington--With a Presidential run that went nowhere in his rearview mirror, Democratic Governor Jay Inslee is seeking a third term with a decided advantage but not necessarily an overwhelming advantage in the Evergreen State.  Democrats have held the Washington statehouse since 1984 and, thanks to the fast-growing liberal city of Seattle as its population anchor, the Democratic advantage in the state has only gotten more entrenched.  However, there's a backlash in some of the state's more conservative and blue-collar corners against Seattle's muscular progressivism, and small-town police chief Loren Culp, Inslee's Republican challenger, is a perfect emissary for that backlash.  Inslee is still expected to win going away, but expect a growing regional divide and a Washington map that doesn't resemble what a winning map for Democrats would have looked like in 1984, when their streak of gubernatorial wins began.  Prediction:  Inslee +10

West Virginia--One of the weirder results of election night 2016 came from the Mountain State, where Donald Trump prevailed by a thundering 42 points at the top of the ticket, but the open gubernatorial seat was decisively held by Democrat Jim Justice.  How the hell did that happen?  Justice was a coal baron and was never serious about being a Democrat, and conservative voters in parochial West Virginia knew it.  Sure enough, a year after winning as a Democrat, Justice switched parties and became a Republican.  Normally, party-switching doesn't end well for politicians seeking another term, but it won't hurt Justice as is evidenced by his comfortable lead in the polls over Democrat Ben Salango.  In fact, Justice will almost assuredly do better with an (R) next to his name this cycle than he did with a (D) in 2016.  Prediction:  Justice +21

Moving onto the House races.  I tend to be a little more aggressive in predicting Democratic gains in the House compared to statewide wins in the Senate and Presidential race, but it's usually a mix and match depending on hunches and district trendlines.  This year, the Democrats go in with 232 seats and unless the Presidential numbers are way off in key places, are poised for additional gains that are at worst modest and at best rivaling the 2008 landslide.  The battleground is pretty significant so I'll split the races into four categories, starting with the potentially competitive seats that I think the incumbent party will hold....

Democratic-held seats I think Dems will hold.....

CA-21 (Cox)

CA-48 (Rouda)

FL-27 (Shalala)

GA-06 (McBath)

IL-14 (Underwood)

IL-17 (Bustos)

IA-01 (Finkenauer)

IA-02 (Open--Loebsack)

IA-03 (Axne)

ME-02 (Golden)

MI-08 (Slotkin)

MI-11 (Stevens)

NV-03 (Lee)

NJ-03 (Kim)

NJ-07 (Malinowski)

NY-11 (Rose)

NY-22 (Brindisi)

OK-05 (Horn)

OR-04 (De Fazio)

PA-08 (Cartwright)

PA-17 (Lamb)

SC-01 (Cunningham)

TX-07 (Fletcher)

UT-04 (McAdams)

VA-02 (Luria)

VA-07 (Spanberger)

WA-08 (Schrier)

WI-03 (Kind)

I figured the majority of the suburban seats that Democrats picked up in the 2018 midterms would stick with them in 2020, but even some of the seats I figured for sure were rentals (SC-01, NY-22) are looking heavily favored for Democrats at this writing.  Their districts will be altered in varying degrees after next year's redistricting, but the bigger the Democratic win this year, the more of these seats will be salvageable and potentially wave-proof in 2022 when the Democrats can expect a much more defensive cycle.

Republican-held seats I think the GOP will hold.....

AK-AL (Young)

CA-04 (McClintock)

CA-22 (Nunes)

CA-50 (Vacant--Hunter)

FL-15 (Open--Spano)

FL-16 (Buchanan)

FL-18 (Mast)

IL-13 (Davis)

IN-05 (Open--Brooks)

IA-04 (Open--King)

KS-02 (Open--Watkins)

KY-06 (Barr)

MI-06 (Upton)

MN-01 (Hagedorn)

MT-AL (Open--Gianforte)

NE-02 (Bacon)

NY-01 (Zeldin)

NY-02 (Open--King)

NY-24 (Katko)

NC-08 (Hudson)

NC-11 (Open--Meadows)

OH-10 (Turner)

OH-12 (Balderson)

PA-01 (Fitzpatrick)

PA-10 (Perry)

PA-16 (Kelly)

TX-02 (Crenshaw)

TX-03 (Taylor)

TX-06 (Wright)

TX-25 (Williams)

VA-05 (Open--Riggelman)

WA-03 (Herrera Beutler)

Plenty of close calls in this bunch.  If Biden's surge is as big in these conservative-leaning suburban districts as projected, a dozen or more of these seats could become Democratic driftwood, two-year rentals poised to bounce back to the GOP in the next midterm.  They include places like the northern suburbs of Indianapolis and the exurbs of Dallas and Houston that were bedrock GOP strongholds for generations.  Plus there are other conventionally swingy seats like MN-01 and NE-02 that are always on the knife's edge.  It's not at all unthinkable that more than half the seats on this list could swing to the Democrats if Biden closes hard with a wave of coattails.

Democrat-held seats I think will flip to the GOP.....

FL-26 (Mucarsel-Powell)

MN-07 (Peterson)

NM-02 (Torres Small)

I've seen enough data points by now to concede that Trump is making real gains among Hispanic voters compared to four years ago.  This is especially true in South Florida, which I suspect will be the undoing of freshman Mucarsel-Powell in her heavily Cuban district.  A turnout imbalance in 2018 gave the Democrats a rental seat in very GOP turf in southern New Mexico, but indications this year suggest it'll be hard to replicate with Presidential year turnout.  And trend lines in rural Midwestern farm country will finally catch up with Collin Peterson in western Minnesota, the reddest district in the nation still held by a Democrat.

Republican-held seats I think will flip to the Democrats.....

AZ-06 (Schweikert)

AR-02 (Hill)

CA-25 (Garcia)

CO-03 (Open--Tipton)

GA-07 (Open--Woodall)

MI-03 (Open--Amash)

MO-02 (Wagner)

NJ-02 (Van Drew)

NC-02 (Open)

NC-06 (Open)

OH-01 (Chabot)

TX-10 (McCaul)

TX-21 (Roy)

TX-22 (Open--Olson)

TX-23 (Open--Hurd)

TX-24 (Open--Marchant)

TX-31 (Carter)

There are a few races here where I'm out on a limb a bit, but most of these districts have one thing in common.  They're in upscale suburban areas where regional polling suggests Biden is surging in the Presidential race, and in some cases with downballot polling showing Republican incumbents in big trouble.  Two years ago, Democrats closed in hard on a number of GOP-held seats in suburban Dallas, Houston, and Austin in Texas that few saw as vulnerable head into election night.  The early vote in these places indicates this trend is poised to accelerate this year, which could upend the careers of several more Republicans whose districts were gerrymandered specifically to avoid this sort of thing.  The two gimmes on this list for Democrats are the two North Carolina seats, just designed after the Republicans' nearly decadelong gerrymander was tossed out and redrawn, giving Democrats two safely blue new districts.  Of course, the new districts will go away again next year when the North Carolina district lines are changed again.

So I have the Democrats netting 14 seats to their already decisive 232-vote House majority.  It seems almost certain the Democrats will gain some seats but others are more conservatively guessing high-single-digit gains.  But if the Biden tide crests as high in these suburban districts as a fair amount of polling suggests, it's not at all unreasonable to imagine a 25-seat Democratic gain.  If this plays out even further downballot in legislative races, that would be an absolutely ideal situation for Democrats in a redistricting year.

And now, to my final thoughts on the Presidential race.  I'm not backing away from my predictions of two weeks ago but several states remain on the knife's edge, almost every one of them states that went for Trump.  There are six states that I predicted for Trump that remain tossups to varying degrees.  Based on recent polling data, I would rank those six states in this order from most likely to least likely to flip.....Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Iowa, Texas, Ohio.   The much-respected Selzer Poll came out last night in Iowa showing a tidal wave of momentum to Trump and Ernst.  The poll defied credibility in many ways, but that doesn't mean Selzer isn't closer to right than the media polls showing the race to be a tossup.  I've always thought Iowa leaned Republican at the Presidential and Senate level this year, but I don't really think the Selzer polls gives us much more in the way of clarification about than we had a week ago, despite the media consensus that Iowa's off the board simply because of the Selzer poll.

Every election night is at least a little unpredictable and this year will be more unpredictable than most depending upon how quickly states are able to count their mail vote.  It won't help that the three states considered to be the most critical battlegrounds--Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania--are gonna get off to a late start in their mail-vote counting, likely delaying results until the next day or later in the week.  Perhaps exit polls indicating a blowout will lead to earlier calls in Wisconsin and Michigan, but there's no guarantee of that and I suspect the media organizations will be quite cautious in making calls.  Pennsylvania is almost certain to be the most uncertain, with election day vote counted first and expected to show a double-digit lead before the Democrat-heavy mail vote and early vote begins to be counted.  

Only moments ago, the news broke that Trump plans to declare victory on election night no matter what the vote count indicates.  That's no surprise, but sets up a particularly ugly post-election week of putting in doubt any and all votes counted after Trump's premature victory declaration, and also sets up activist judges on the Trump-dominated Supreme Court to put their thumb on the scale for him.  Will the SCOTUS engineer a coup and retroactively refuse to count votes not yet counted at the moment of Trump's victory declaration?  I wouldn't put anything past them, and if they did, Pennsylvania would become an artificial red state.   Barring a full-blown meltdown of polling, Trump's only path to 270 electoral votes is all of the Sun Belt battlegrounds along with Iowa and Ohio....AND Pennsylvania.  It's extremely unlikely but not out of the question.  If it all comes down to Pennsylvania--and if my 290 EV Biden win projection is correct, then PA would be the difference--look out because we're headed for a 2000-style post-election slugfest in the courts.