Final 2022 Governor's Race Predictions

As of this writing, we're down to nine days before election day 2022, but of course by now it's a safe bet that at least a quarter of the overall votes have already been cast.  I'm not a big fan of early voting, or from gleaning any tea leaves based on early voting data given that Democrats tend to frontload their vote tally by voting early while Republicans hold out until election day and then run up their numbers above and beyond the wildest expectations.  Thus far, however, in the two states where early voting numbers tend to the be most predictive, indications are mediocre at best in Nevada and devastatingly lackluster in Florida.  If Democrats aren't even able to run away with early voting compared to the previous couple of cycles, it doesn't speak well for what's coming on the evening of November 8th.  Polling has been all over the place and it's hard to put too much value on it after how bad polls were across the board in 2020.  It could well be that the pollsters' likely voter models are too tight and there really is a shy Roe vote bubbling under the surface, but with each passing week it's looking more likely that this will be a conventional midterm cycle where the party in power takes a beating to some degree. Democrats aren't as overexposed as they were in 2010 and will thus not lose nearly as many seats as they did that year, but they're still more likely that not to be facing a pretty bad November.  Let's see how that is likely to pertain in this year's 36 gubernatorial elections.....

Alabama--When Republican Governor Kay Ivey publicly trashed the anti-vaxxers last year, I was pretty confident she'd be crushed in the primary if she chose to run for another gubernatorial term, but Ivey managed to handily prevail even in this most conservative state.  I didn't closely follow the primary but am curious how Ivey managed to pull off a victory being on the wrong side of the GOP's activist base. Now she faces token Democratic opposition from Democrat Yolanda Flowers and is poised to coast into a second full term.  Prediction:  Ivey by 34.

Alaska--There's been little in the way of polling to provide any clear answers, but Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavey seems likely to have the upper-hand in a multi-candidate field that includes Democrat Les Gara and former Independent Governor Bill Walker who, after getting elected in 2014, was so unpopular four years later that he dropped out of the race weeks before the election hoping to benefit the Democratic nominee.  It's doubtful that Walker's popularity has recovered enough since then to overcome Dunleavey's built-in advantage, but a complete lack of public polling nonetheless leaves this one partially open to surprise, especially when factoring in ranked-choice voting.  Prediction:  Dunleavey by 10.

Arizona--Another of the marquee gubernatorial races, the open seat vacated by two-term GOP Governor Doug Ducey is looking to be considerably closer than Democrats hoped when Republicans nominated hard-right newswoman Kari Lake.  Ultimately though, the only surprise to me is that anybody believed Lake would be a disqualifying figure in today's political environment.  It's hard to know how many of Lake's voters actually believe that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump as was the centerpiece of her primary campaign, but the media and elitist insiders always overestimate the number of people who actually care about this issue.  The bottom line is that Lake has provided an eloquent platform for her brand of populist conservatism that has the same kind of appeal as Trump's abrasive devil-may-care rebelliousness had, and her litigation of border security in this border state was always gonna be powerful in rallying a faction of voters into her column even if they're not buying the idea that Biden wasn't really elected President.  As for Lake's Democratic opponent, Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, she seemed like a very good candidate on paper but made one of the most head-smacking errors in judgment of the 2022 campaign cycle when she refused to debate Lake, making herself look cowardly and unfit for the rigors of the office.  Most polls are tied, but there's no question that Lake has the momentum.  As in so many other states, it will likely come down to how many Hispanic voters have abandoned the Democratic Party, which is hard to model without seeing election night results.  This is another race that the Democrats will lose their minds about if Lake ends up winning, and right now I suspect that outcome is more likely than not.  Prediction:  Lake by 1.

Arkansas--The realignment of Arkansas was complete several cycles ago and there's not even any semblance of competition anymore in statewide races.  Former Trump administration flack Sarah Huckabee Sanders is poised for a dominating victory to the gubernatorial post held by her father a generation ago.  Democratic challenger Chris Jones will be even more poorly positioned to put up a fight than other recent Democratic emissaries for statewide office in the Natural State.  Prediction:  Sanders by 36.

California--I think it's fair to say that 2018 will be looked back at as the year the Democratic Party peaked in California, with factions of the party's dominating coalition subsequently cleaving off in the cycles to come.  To be sure, there will be increasing numbers of residents likely to balk at the state's muscularly progressive policy program, possibly enough to pull out a win in the perfect storm, but don't expect that to happen in 2022.  Incumbent Democrat Gavin Newsom easily held off a weak recall effort last year and is positioned for a healthy re-election to a second term this fall against his Republican challenger, state Senator Brian Dahle.  Prediction:  Newsom by 32.

Colorado--Democratic Governor Jared Polis has managed to compile an enviable performance record in the Rocky Mountain State and goes into his re-election campaign as a very heavy favorite for a second term.  That was no sure thing four years ago for the liberal and openly gay former Congressman from Boulder, but he has solid approval ratings in the increasingly blue-leaning Colorado and should have no problem overcoming his GOP challenger Heidi Ganahi, the best the party could do with its diminished bench in the state.  Prediction:  Polis by 14.

Connecticut—While the Nutmeg State has been reliably blue for a generation now, the last three gubernatorial races have all been relative nail-biters as plenty of centrist voters unwilling to vote Republican federally are willing to do so at the state level.  With that in mind, I suspect incumbent Democrat Ned Lamont will prevail more persuasively this year in his rematch with Republican Bob Stefanowski who got within 3 points four years ago.  Lamont’s been getting decent marks for his stewardship and lives in a state where more voters are likely to respond viscerally to the Dobbs ruling.  Prediction:  Lamont by 13.

Florida—Incumbent Republican showboater Ron DeSantis was already poised for a decisive win against his challenger, Republican-turned-Democrat Charlie Crist who’s been gaming to get his old job back for more than a dozen years now, but now DeSantis is poised to benefit from a rally-around-the-flag effect in the aftermath of Hurricane Ian that will likely give him a further bounce.  Crist picked a bad year to attempt a comeback and since he couldn’t beat the unpopular Rick Scott in 2014, he was never well-positioned to topple the more popular DeSantis even as the retiree pipeline continues to make the Sunshine State a little more Republican each passing year.  Prediction:  DeSantis by 11.

Georgia—No matter how abrupt the realignment of the Peach State into the Democratic column ended up being after the trio of big Democratic wins in 2020, I always expected Republican Governor Brian Kemp would prevail in his rematch with Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams this year.  This was especially true after Kemp stood up to Donald Trump last year yet still crushed his competition in this year's GOP primary.  Now Kemp looks like the moderate elder statesman who would consolidate Republicans, no matter how annoyed many of them were with him, while winning back a number of Biden-voting independents and country club GOP moderates who defected in 2020.  Furthermore, Stacey Abrams was always wildly overrated as a politician, venturing into "election denial" territory after her loss to Kemp in 2020 and pressing forward with a muscularly progressive campaign this year despite living in a state that's still pretty conservative.  There's no denying that the machine Abrams built and later fortified was fiercely effective in bringing about the Democrats' 2020 wins, but Abrams was never poised to be equally as effective as the face of that movement.  Now, as Abrams dabbles in wildly unpopular topics like slavery reparations in the final weeks of the campaign, it's quickly becoming a question of whether she will do so much damage to the entire Democratic ballot that Herschel Walker ends up riding Kemp's coattails to more than 50% of the vote and an outright election day victory on November 8th.  It's not at all far-fetched at this point. Prediction:  Kemp by 10.

 

Hawaii—Even unpopular Democratic heads of state in the Aloha State seem to always get reelected based on the islands’ inexplicably reflexive tendency toward the Democratic Party.  Two-term Democrat David Ige has never been Mr. Popularity but is term-limited out anyway, leaving an open seat in which his Lieutenant Governor and fellow Democrat Josh Green is running.  Perennial GOP candidate Duke Aiona is the challenger for the third time in the last four cycles and, unless I’m missing something in this low-profile race, Hawaiians should respond predictably and elect the Democrat by a bruising margin.  Prediction:  Green by 33.

Idaho—Just as Hawaii is a lay-up for the Democrats, the Gem State should be equally predictable for the Republicans.  First-term incumbent Brad Little faced a Trump-endorsed primary challenge from his right (from his own Lieutenant Governor no less!) but prevailed and heads into the general election effectively assured of a crushing win against his token Democratic challenger, college professor Stephen Heldt.  Prediction:  Little by 43.

Illinois—First-term Democrat J.B. Pritzker is running for reelection as a heavy favorite in the Land of Lincoln against his GOP challenger, State Senator Darren Bailey.  Even though this race is poised to be a blowout, expect to see Bailey win something pretty close to a clean sweep of downstate counties while Pritzker dominates in Chicagoland.  It was inevitable that Illinois politics would eventually break down this way to a degree, but the degree to which Democrats realigned the staunchly Republican upscale suburbs of Chicago along the way was definitely less predictable.  Expect to see a close approximation of the Biden map in Pritzker’s victory.  Prediction:  Pritzker by 15.

Iowa—In retrospect, I suspect the 2018 midterm cycle will be looked back upon as the last cycle when Iowa was a genuinely purple state before realigning in the direction of Missouri and other red states with similar white working class-heavy demographic profiles.  And even in 2018, Republican Governor Kim Reynolds pulled off a surprise 3-point win against her favored Democratic challenger.  The Hawkeye State shows all signs of consolidating further into the GOP column four years later and Reynolds is poised for a much cleaner re-election win this fall against underfunded Democratic challenger Deidre DeJear.  Prediction:  Reynolds by 18.

Kansas--One of the bigger surprises on election night 2018 was Democrat Laura Kelly prevailing in a three-way race for Kansas Governor, with that year's GOP emissary being deemed too conservative for one of the nation's most dependably Republican states.  Four years later, Kelly is running for re-election and I'm going into my prediction with a significant polling deficit and little sense of the state of the race.  On one hand, Kansas seems to be inching leftward, fueled by the upscale suburbs of Kansas City, and it's not at all inconceivable that Kelly could replicate her 2018 coalition.  On the other hand, she has a less controversial Republican challenger this cycle with Attorney General Derek Schmidt and the state's reflexive GOP lean could prove harder to crack, particularly in a more conservative year.  Last summer's abortion rights vote certainly mapped out a path to victory for Kelly, and I wouldn't be overly surprised if she was able to capitalize on it, but absent much hard data telling me otherwise, I'm deferring to the fundamentals and predicting that she gets replaced by Schmidt.  Prediction:  Schmidt by 3.  (GOP +1)

Maine—Controversial former Republican Governor Paul Le Page decided to return to Maine after exiling in Florida after his second term, and he’ll be challenging the woman who replaced him, Democrat Janet Mills, who is now running for her own second term.  Le Page outperformed expectations in both of the strong Republican years that he ran last decade, but never got 50% as he always slid into office amidst divided opposition.  Particularly in the era of ranked-choice voting which Maine has now, Le Page looks like a serious underdog, with polling bearing that out so far.  I’ve learned to never underestimate Le Page’s ability to pull off surprise victories, but I still think Mills is quite a bit more likely to get a second term as Le Page is to get a third term.  Prediction:  Mills by 7.

Maryland—Despite being one of the most Democratic states in the country, Republican Larry Hogan has served as its (relatively popular) Republican Governor for the last two terms but is bowing out this year, for which the Democrats are probably pretty lucky.  The Democrats lucked out even more when the GOP chose hard-right election denier Dan Cox as their nominee for 2022.  A closely contested Democratic nomination fight found former Robin Hood Foundation CEO Wes Moore prevail, and every indication is that Moore is poised for a dominating win against his untenable opponent.  Expect turnout to be light however.  Prediction:  Moore by 30.  Dem Gain (Even)

Massachusetts—Another deep blue state with another retiring moderate Republican Governor.  Charlie Baker is throwing in the towel after two terms, leaving an open seat that seems very likely to change partisan hands.  Democratic Attorney General Maura Healey emerged victorious in her primary and would really have to mess up to lose to her GOP challenger, former state representative and losing 2018 U.S. Senate candidate Geoff Diehl.  With the obvious “Martha Coakley” caveat spoken for, reproductive rights are a big deal in Massachusetts and it would be pretty tough for Diehl to win in a cycle with the Dobbs ruling backdrop.  Prediction:  Healey by 20.   (Dems +1)

Michigan—A year ago, I wouldn’t have expected to go into the 2022 midterms with Michigan Democrat Gretchen Whitmer well-positioned for a second term, but for most of this cycle it certainly seemed as though Whitmer was poised to cruise to re-election against a lackluster slate of GOP challengers.  That's become slightly less clear in the last month as the race seems to be trending toward the 2020 fundamentals.  Republican challenger Tudor Dixon often comes across as a right-wing nut, but she's put forward a more eloquent litigation of Whitmer's first term than anticipated in the last month and appears to have made a contest out of this race.  If Whitmer hangs on, as I still think she will, I expect the margin of difference will come from the Grand Rapids area, which has been trending blue in recent cycles to help compensate for so much other territory that's moved the other direction in the last decade.  Prediction:  Whitmer by 3.

Minnesota--Four years ago, Democrat Tim Walz won an open-seat election by 10 points in a very strong Democratic year in the Gopher State.  Walz was a heavy favorite to be re-elected, but there are signs of vulnerability due to a combination of Minnesota-specific events, a growing ideological split between moderates and progressives in the state, and the wild card of two marijuana-themed minor parties that could split the vote in a way that imperils Walz.  Republican challenger Scott Jensen is not a particularly impressive and has pivoted wildly over the past two years from a deal-making suburban moderate in the legislature to a raging anti-vax ideologue who wrestled the party's gubernatorial nomination and then back to a center-right consensitarian in the general election, but he's still managed to position himself with a path to victory.  With a little bit of well-timed anti-DFL backlash and quite a bit of luck with third-party spoilers, it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world if Jensen pulled off the upset.  Right now though, I'm betting Walz ekes out a slim victory based on the same strong numbers in Hennepin County suburbs that saved Hillary in Minnesota in 2016.  Prediction:  Walz by 2.

Nebraska—With two-term GOP incumbent Pete Ricketts retiring, it was a dogfight for the Republican nomination to replace him and former University of Nebraska regents director Jim Pillen narrowly prevailed.  In the Cornhusker State, the Republican nomination is the only election that counts as the Democratic nominee, state Senator Carol Blood, will be left as a blood stain underneath Pillen’s bootheel by Nebraska voters, although Blood’s home base in suburban Omaha might support her enough to hold down GOP margins from what they may have been a generation ago.  Prediction:  Pillen by 27.

Nevada--Just as I believe 2022 is not gonna be the Democrats' year in the Silver State's Senate race, I also believe Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak is in big trouble in his bid for re-election.  Sisolak's Republican challenger, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, has a narrow edge in most available public polling just as Adam Laxalt does in the Senate race.  More than any other state in the country, early voting data tells us the majority of what we need to know about how the race will end in Nevada, meaning it should be pretty clear the weekend before the election if Democrats are poised to match expectations or not in the state.  However, the wild card for 2022 is that there's a real chance that plenty of registered Democrats (particularly Hispanics) and certainly an outsized portion of independents will be voting Republican this year.  Based on everything I've seen though, it's hard to argue that Lombardo doesn't have an early edge in unseating Sisolak.  Prediction:  Lombardo by 2  GOP gain (Even)

New Hampshire—One of the biggest dodged bullets Democrats got this cycle was when the Granite State’s popular GOP Governor Chris Sununu declined to challenge vulnerable Democrat Maggie Hassan in the U.S. Senate race.  Sununu is instead opting for another two-year term as New Hampshire Governor, and after a dominating win with considerable downballot coattails in 2020, Sununu is well-positioned for an encore against this year’s Democratic challenger, state senator Tom Sherman.  Prediction:  Sununu by 26.

New Mexico—In 2020, GOP newscaster Mark Ronchetti put up a much stronger fight than expected in his Senate race against Democrat Ben Ray Lujan, holding Lujan to a modest 6-point margin of victory.  This year, Ronchetti is trying his luck in the gubernatorial contest against Democratic incumbent Michelle Lujan Grisham, and it’s not particularly clear at this point where the race stands.  New Mexico was an island of COVID-era lockdowns in a generally liberated region, and I suspect that hurt her standing some.  Nobody has a sense of where the partisan loyalties of Hispanic voters stand in the post-Trump era, and it will be highly determinative in a state where Hispanics are the majority of the electorate.  Absent much evidence to the contrary, I’ll give Lujan Grisham a narrow benefit of the doubt but I suspect the race will be close and I wouldn’t be stunned if Ronchetti pulled out an upset.  Prediction:  Lujan Grisham by 2.

New York—One of the most unlikely ascendancies to the top of the political universe came in the form of New York’s Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, a short-time Congresswoman from upstate New York who stumbled her way to the governorship and is now running for her first full term.  But Cinderalla stories are often felled as quickly as they're constructed, and right now Hochul is not looking as strong as one might expect for an incumbent Democrat in the Empire State.  Her opponent is Long Island Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin who just might put up a reasonable fight and consolidate the white ethnic vote in the New York City area that has generally stood by Andrew Cuomo in the three previous gubernatorial contests.  The flawed logic in New York and other blue states was that the Dobbs ruling would overwhelm other voter concerns, and Hochul more than any other political leader has made preserving abortion rights as the centerpiece of her campaign.  The issue seems to be increasingly falling flat everywhere, but particularly in New York where disproportionate numbers of voters seem to feel secure that abortion rights will be preserved and are wondering what Hochul plans to do on other matters if given another term.  Fortunately for Democrats, it seems likely that Hochul detected the messaging problem early enough that she might avoid the perfect storm scenario where Zeldin was able to take advantage of the timing and upset her.  At this point, I'm inclined to believe Hochul will be able to pivot the race to become a referendum on the challenger enough to not only win, but narrowly outperform the polls.  Hochul may not win pretty by the standards of a Democrat in New York, but I’m entirely confident she’ll still win.  But the milquetoast nature of her win could easily come with dire consequences in a number of battleground House districts, particularly upstate.  Prediction:  Hochul by 11.

Ohio—The Buckeye State has trended somewhere painfully close to Safe R since the dawn of the Trump era and moderate Republican Governor Mike DeWine’s biggest threat came in the Republican primary.  But after prevailing in the primary, DeWine was on a glide path to reelection and even polling samples showing a close Senate race have showed DeWine crushing Democratic challenger Nan Whaley, the mayor of Dayton who was a pretty good recruit on paper but stands poised for a big embarrassment in November.  Prediction:  DeWine by 20.

Oklahoma—Early polling is showing a close race for Governor in the Sooner State, but I’ve seen this movie before.  Four years ago, a race that was within the margin of error in pre-election polling wound up as a double-digit GOP rout for Kevin Stitt, the Republican running for a second term this year.  While Stitt has his vulnerabilities and there’s some degree of exhaustion with the GOP in the state, it remains one of the nation’s most conservative states and I expect Stitt will comfortably prevail again with the polls, as usual, undercounting working-class Republican voters.  The Democrats are fielding a pretty strong challenger in Superintendent of Instruction Joy Hofmeister, herself a Republican until she changed parties in opposition to Oklahoma’s long-controversial school funding policy.  Expect Hofmeister to score some decent wins in the state’s urban centers just as Democrat Drew Edmondson did four years ago, but the rural jurisdictions of Oklahoma where Democrats dominated a generation ago have realigned as staunch GOP strongholds and have all but entirely erased any path to victory for a Democrat running statewide in Oklahoma.  Prediction:  Stitt by 11.

Oregon--The Democrats have an amazing 40-year winning streak in Oregon gubernatorial elections, which is particularly impressive considering that Oregon was at best a purple state back in the 1980s when the streak began.  The Beaver State is a solidly blue state nowadays and for as far back as I can remember the close races always seem to swing to the Democrats come election day.  This tendency will be put to its biggest test in more than a decade this year with the open gubernatorial seat vacated by two-term Democrat Kate Brown.  Like so many states with large blue metro areas, the fault lines of Oregon politics have become a bitter geographic divide between Portland and everybody else.  Couple that with general Democratic exhaustion and a potential third-party spoiler and the gubernatorial race in Oregon is a toss-up.  Former Speaker of the House Tina Kotek is the underperforming Democratic nominee while former House Minority Leader Christine Drazan is the Republican nominee.  Drazan is in the game largely because former Democratic lawmaker Betsy Johnson is running as an independent and pulling in double-digit margins in the polls.  Polling suggests the race is a crap shoot, meaning I'll lean on past precedent to make my call.  Going back to 2000, most analysts predicted that "the Nader factor" would lead George W. Bush to victory in the Beaver State, but come election day, Nader's numbers came in at about half of expectations and the beneficiary of Nader-curious voters getting sweaty palms was Democrat Al Gore, who won the state largely because liberal voters came home.  My bet is that history will repeat itself, with fear of electing a Republican Governor with 40% of the vote will inspire a number of Betsy Johnson voters to flip to Kotek at the last minute.  That's just a gut prediction though and it wouldn't surprise me if the political climate ultimately fails Kotek in her quest to be Governor.  Prediction:  Kotek by 2.

Pennsylvania—Most of the questionable choices made my MAGAfied Republican primary electorates this year came in the Senate contests, but arguably the biggest own goal of all was the GOP’s Trump-endorsed emissary for the Keystone State’s gubernatorial contest.  Doug Mastriano was present at the January 6^th attacks and has a long record of wild statements that seem to have disqualified him from consideration for most Pennsylvania voters, making him perhaps the only highly controversial GOP nominee that really has been disqualified by voters.  State Attorney General and Democratic nominee Josh Shapiro appears to be running away with the race to replace two-term Democrat Tom Wolf even as the Senate race tightens.  Had Republican primary voters gone with former Congressman Lou Barletta, this would likely have been a battleground race, but they insisted on having a Christine O’Donnell moment and will pay dearly for it.  Prediction:  Shapiro by 12.

Rhode Island--Perhaps the blankest slate of the nation's potentially competitive gubernatorial elections is the Ocean State, where appointed Democratic Governor Dan McKee (whose predecessor is now in the Biden administration) is seeking a full elected term.  McKee eked out an unimpressive primary victory nabbing less than 33% of the vote in a multi-candidate field, which tells me he's not coming into the election from a place of strength.  I have no idea how strong of a challenge his GOP opponent, businesswoman Ashley Kalus, is putting up and after such a late primary only a month ago, and there's effectively zero general election polling to give me any indication of which way the wind is blowing.  With that in mind, all I have to base my prediction on are the fundamentals, so given Rhode Island's deep Democratic lean, I'll operate under the assumption that it will be advantage enough for dragging McKee across the finish line.  Of course, a single public poll would be highly clarifying and quite easily foretell a Kalus upset.  Prediction:  McKee by 4.

South Carolina—Republican incumbent Henry McMaster is running for his second full term as Governor in the Palmetto State and looks to be a considerable favorite despite having a relatively strong challenger in former Democratic Congressman Joe Cunningham.  Cunningham, who won an upset in a suburban Charleston Congressional race in 2018, was swept out of office two years later and had few places to go from there so he decided to challenge McMaster.  Unfortunately for him, a Democrat winning statewide office remains a tough slog in South Carolina as Jamie Harrison discovered in 2020.  There’s little in the way of buzz about this race less than a month before the election which is a pretty good indication McMaster is poised to win handily.  Prediction:  McMaster by 15.

South Dakota—It’s hard to believe that four years ago, Republican Kristi Noem barely won her first gubernatorial race in the dark red Mount Rushmore State, particularly given that she’s since raised her profile as a national figure espousing a muscularly libertarian platform during the pandemic and clearly has aspirations far beyond the plains of South Dakota.  There are some significant ethics charges that have dogged Noem in the past year and may turn out to be more impactful that I’m giving credit for, but I’m confident she’ll blow right past them and handily defeat her Democratic challenger, state House Minority Leader Jamie Smith.  It’s impossible to overstate how dead the Democratic Party has become in the once-bipartisan Mount Rushmore State during the Trump era.  Prediction:  Noem by 35.

Tennessee—One of the only states where the Democratic Party is even more dead than South Dakota is in Tennessee, where Republican Governor Bill Lee is going to absolutely cruise to a second term against his Democratic challenger, a random doctor named Jason Martin.  Interestingly though, Martin is from the Nashville suburbs, a region which showed some movement toward Biden two years ago.  I’ll be curious to see if the trend continues, but even if it does, Lee will still dominate statewide.  Prediction:  Lee by 28.

Texas—I’m a bit surprised at the relative competitiveness of the Lone Star State’s gubernatorial election as I figured Democrat Beto O’Rourke had beclowned himself out of consideration for future elected office in Texas after his 2020 Presidential campaign embarrassment.  But polls show O’Rourke trailing Republican incumbent Greg Abbott by mid-single digits and suggest that the “Dallas debutante vote” in upscale suburbs may have genuinely realigned from red to blue.  On the other hand, I suspect polling is oversampling the college boy vote just like it always does while likely undersampling the Hispanic vote in the Rio Grande Valley, a demographic that shows all signs of being done with the Democratic Party largely thanks to their incompetent stewardship of the border.  In the end, I think the days of double-digit GOP landslides in Texas may be over but I still think that despite his warts and a shrinking demand for the laissez-faire utopia for big business that is Greg Abbott’s brand, he’ll still win decisively, and probably better than the polls suggest.  Prediction:  Abbott by 10.

Vermont—The Green Mountain State is arguably the nation’s bluest, but they have a popular Republican Governor in Phil Scott who is running for another two-year term and seems assured of reelection.  His Democratic challenger, nonprofit executive Brenda Siegel, seems unlikely to shake even base Democratic voters away from their comfort level with the moderate Scott.  Had Scott elected to run for Senate rather than another gubernatorial term, his popularity probably wouldn’t have carried over into a victory, but for as long as Scott chooses to run for Governor, I like his chances of continuing to win.  Prediction:  Scott by 38.

Wisconsin--If there was one state in the country where the politics of abortion should be having an impact, it's the Badger State, where a centuries-old law rendered abortion illegal instantly after the Dobbs ruling dropped last summer.  Factoring in that Wisconsin (narrowly) went for Joe Biden last year and the fact that the state's brutal gerrymander has gifted the GOP with supermajorities in both houses of the legislature and it seems like it should be a slam-dunk that noncontroversial Democratic Governor Tony Evers would be a shoo-in for re-election as a check against conservative overreach.  Only that's not happening.  Polls are indicating a photo finish on the horizon between Evers and GOP challenger Tim Michels, a construction company owner who lost by double digits to Russ Feingold in the 2004 Senate race.  Michels has no business being competitive in this race but at this point it seems more likely than not that he'll win, reinforcing the notion that Wisconsin is realigning into a red state just as neighboring Iowa did a few cycles ago.  Prediction:  Michels by 1.  GOP gain.  (GOP +1)

Wyoming—Arguably the nation’s most anonymous Governor, Republican Mark Gordon is running for a second term in the nation’s reddest state as a cinch for reelection.  His Democratic challenger Theresa Livingston will likely win affluent Teton County and nothing else.  Prediction:  Gordon by 49.

 

 

Ultimately, I'm betting on a net GOP gain of one gubernatorial mansion.  That doesn't seem particularly impressive in a good GOP year, but the novelty of having incumbent Republican Governors in Maryland and Massachusetts throws off the curve a bit.  Furthermore, an additional breeze in the GOP's direction could enlarge their haul by several with Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, and Rhode Island potentially on the bubble.  Certainly in the national popular vote in gubernatorial races, I think it's a safe bet that the GOP either wins outright or at worst vastly outperforms their 2018 numbers in the same 36 states.  

 

I'll be back next week with general House predictions and some final thoughts about the parties' respective messaging this election cycle.  As usual, I'm feeling some excitement about it as the election approaches, but everything about the way our electoral coalitions are lining up since the dawn of the Trump era has me depressed and checked out.  If things go the way I expect they will on November 8th, it'll be harder than ever to muster up the energy for my "post-game analysis", but I'm sure I will soldier through it.

Final 2022 Senate Race Predictions

It promises to be a highly competitive final stretch to determine which party will control the U.S. Senate for the next two years, but that's nothing new as Senate control has credibly been up for grabs every cycle since 2008.  I'm no longer putting an undue level of confidence on the accuracy of polling, but with that said, my teaser from last month describing the condition of the midterms seems obsolete.  Every indication is that the Democrats' boomlet following the Dobbs ruling has ebbed.  Nothing has substantively changed in the country in the last four weeks to precipitate Republican momentum, but gas prices have ticked up some and the inflation beast has not been tamed, with most analysts are now doubtful a recession can be avoided next year.  It doesn't seem as though it would be enough to alter the trajectory of an election cycle, but it does suggest the political climate is reverting to the fundamentals as it usually does, endangering the incumbent party. Furthermore, Republican campaign advertising has really kicked in and appears to have been more effective in breaking through than has Democratic messaging.  The Democrats have a long list of vulnerabilities on any number of cultural touchstones ranging from immigration to crime to transgender issues and the Republicans have probably drawn blood by connecting the dots between Democratic candidates at all levels of elected office and the most strident left-wing activists who donate to their campaigns.  Meanwhile, the Democrats continue to spend a disproportionate amount of time litigating a single issue....abortion rights.

The abortion issue was always poised to be a double-edged sword for Democrats.  The vast majority of voters are closer to the Democratic position than the GOP position on the issue, but it was always a matter of how salient the issue would be outside of Democratic base voters.  I had long predicted that the Dobbs ruling, foreseeable last year at this time, would boost Democratic enthusiasm and quite likely limit GOP gains this November.  But would the Dobbs ruling be capable of elevating Democrats, against all historical odds, to outright victory?  It remains an open question and I'm not ruling out the possibility given the long-documented "shy Roe vote" that always seems to show up at the polls when there's a direct referendum on reproductive rights.  But at this point, I'm increasingly skeptical.  Even with the prospect of criminalized abortion having now become a reality, I still don't think the issue's salience has enough reach among the electorate to change voting habits in any genuinely consequential way.  

And, in fact, I think Democrats may be at increased risk for a backlash given that abortion rights is clearly the centerpiece of their campaign, which may seem out of touch to what I suspect is a majority of voters for whom abortion rights is not their primary concern.  I have no scientific or even anecdotal evidence pointing in the direction of this hypothesis, but as I watch reams of campaign ads where Republicans land punch after punch against their Democratic challengers on a wide range of vulnerabilities--and Democrats respond almost entirely by tripling down on abortion rights--I start to wonder how much damage Republicans could potentially do with more than two additional weeks left of this dynamic in the campaign.

As usual, I'm making my formal predictions a few weeks early.  Here they are....

Alabama--Still pretty jarring to remember that only five years ago, a special election to fill an Alabama Senate race resulted in the election of Democrat Doug Jones....and all it took was the Republicans running a child molester for the Democrat to prevail by a 1-point margin!  Expect a much less controversial campaign in the Yellowhammer State in 2022 to fill the seat of retiring Republican Richard Shelby.  Republican Katie Britt prevailed in the GOP primary which is the only election that matters in most Alabama elections.  Don't expect Democratic Some Dude Will Boyd to benefit much from the Dobbs ruling as a number of Democrats believe will save them elsewhere.  Biden loathing runs deep in Alabama and Britt will crush Boyd as she would have against anybody with a D next to their name.  Prediction:  Britt by 24.

Alaska.--I'm not crazy about Alaska's adoption of instant runoff voting where November 8th will end up being a lot like general election night in Louisiana with an effective jungle primary determining the winner, only without a runoff.  But one person who I suspect very much does like the new format is Republican incumbent Senator Lisa Murkowski who seems poised to get a fourth full term in the Senate because of it.  The moderate Murkowski has terrible approval ratings within her party and would almost certainly have been defeated in a GOP primary, but the likelihood is that Democratic crossover voters will save her this November.  It's entirely possible that Murkowski's challenge to the right from Republican Kelly Tshibaka could get more first-choice votes than Murkowski, but the nature of ranked-choice voting with nominal Democratic challenger Pat Chesbro in the mix is that the combination and first-choice and second-choice ballots cast for Murkowski will ultimately help her prevail.  There's a very narrow path to victory here for Republican Tshibaka but as a general rule it's a much safer bet for Murkowski.  Prediction:  Murkowski by 11.

Arizona--Democrats have caught quite a few breaks this year, or at least potential breaks, with the sheer number of third-rate GOP challengers.  One recipient of such a break is Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly, who won a special election to fill John McCain's seat in 2020 and is now up for a full term in 2022.  The polls two years ago showed a decisive Kelly victory was forthcoming, but he ended up winning by only 2 points.  This year, Kelly has the hypothetical good fortune of facing off against a Peter Thiel-groomed right-wing challenger named Blake Masters who seems in over his head but could still prevail given the headwinds facing the Democrats and the increasing willingness of voters to accept whatever right-wing nutjob the Republicans nominate.  I still think Kelly has the edge in this one, but just like last time, I suspect it will be closer than current polling indicates.  And if Republicans had nominated someone more mainstream, I suspect Kelly would have been unseated.  Prediction:  Kelly by 2.

Arkansas--Hard to believe Republican Congressman John Boozman is running for his third term this year, a dozen years after crushing Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln by double digits.  He'll have an even bigger victory this year against business owner Natalie James, one of multiple completely anonymous Democratic challengers running in bright red states this year, of which Arkansas definitely now is.  I guess it's progress that the Democrats even have a Senate candidate on the ballot this year.  They didn't against Tom Cotton two years ago.  Prediction:  Boozman by 40.

California--Of America's 100 Senators, it may well be true that the one with the lowest national name recognition is Democrat Alex Padilla from America's largest state, appointed in 2021 after Kamala Harris became Vice President.  Even after his inevitable election to a full term in November against lightweight GOP challenger Mark Meuser, it's a pretty safe bet that few outside of California (and probably millions who live in the Golden State for that matter!) will know who Padilla is.  Prediction:  Padilla by 28.

Colorado--The Republican Party and some in the media have made a concerted effort to prop up the profile of Joe O'Dea, a construction company owner and the GOP's Senate candidate in the Rocky Mountain State running against two-term Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet.  On paper, this race always had the potential to be competitive as Bennet's previous two victories have both been modest affairs and in a really strong Republican year, felling Bennet seemed like an outside possibility.  But Colorado has taken on an increasingly blue profile in recent cycles and its high concentration of upscale, college-educated moderates pretty much make it ground zero for the kind of place politically shaken by the Dobbs ruling.  In a perfect storm where everything went the GOP's way this fall, it's possible to imagine O'Dea being able to pull this one out, but it really strikes me as unlikely given the current political reality that Colorado will toss out Bennet.  Prediction:  Bennet by 7.

Connecticut--There are a lot of Senators running for their third term this cycle, and another one is Nutmeg State Democrat Richard Blumenthal, one of the Senate's most strident nanny-state ideologues who is nonetheless very popular with Connecticut voters.  Blumenthal would have crushed GOP challenger Leona Levy even in a Republican perfect storm, but expect the Dobbs ruling to generate a particularly sour response in Connecticut, helping Blumenthal pad his margins with inflated margins among upscale, college-educated voters.  Prediction:  Blumenthal by 31.

Florida--Some pre-election polling has indicated that the Senate race in the Sunshine State is reasonably close, but I'm not buying it.  In nearly every election cycle, Republicans outperform the polls in Florida and if Bill Nelson wasn't able to hang on to his seat against a professional criminal like Rick Scott in the strong Democratic year of 2018, then it really becomes impossible to wrap one's mind around the possibility of taking out Republican incumbent Marco Rubio.  Congresswoman and former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings is a strong recruit for Democrats, but she's running in a bad year in an increasingly hostile state for her party, which continues to see its population swell with tax-phobic, right-wing retirees.  Any path to victory for the Democrats in the Florida these days requires a strong showing from the Miami-area Cuban community.  Rubio's had a strong hold on them in the past and I see little evidence of a reversal this year.  In the end, I don't think this one will be close.  Prediction:  Rubio by 8.

Georgia--Arguably the marquee Senate race of this cycle, the complicated nature of Georgia's runoff arrangement ultimately portends my most complicated prediction.  Incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock may have averted certain defeat by getting wildly unfit for office Herschel Walker as his challenger.  The fact that Walker's keeping it close indicates how big of trouble Warnock would be in if he'd faced a normal GOP opponent.  So can Herschel Walker actually get elected to the U.S. Senate?  Absolutely he can, but I don't think either he or Warnock will break 50% of the vote in November, triggering a runoff several weeks later.  This is where the calculation gets really complicated.  I currently have the Republicans gaining one seat in the races I expected to be settled after the November 8th vote count, meaning control of the Senate would not be on the line dependent on the outcome.  Under this scenario, I think more center-right voters might feel safe in voting for Warnock in the runoff, comforted by the idea that the Republicans would still control the Senate.  That calculation could just as easily go the other way though, with the prospect of demoralized Democratic base voters staying home for the runoff if Democrats wouldn't be able to maintain power either way.  In the event of a runoff where control of the US Senate is in the balance depending on the outcome in the Peach State, I think would-be Walker skeptics will hold their nose and vote for him just to wrestle Senate control away from Chuck Schumer.  Of all the races, this is the one I'm least confident about my prediction, but considering the gubernatorial contest is looking increasingly like a Brian Kemp blowout, it's hard to imagine there will be enough ticket-splitters in a place like Georgia to drag Warnock across the finish line.  I would suggest that in the next few weeks, voters should begin to accept the real possibility of a Senator Herschel Walker becoming a thing.  Prediction:  Walker by 1.  GOP +1

Hawaii--The closest Senate election in the Aloha State in my lifetime was in 2012, when the Democrat won by "only" 25 points.  It's a pretty safe bet that incumbent Democrat Brian Schatz, running for re-election this year, will trounce his Republican challenger, state lawmaker Bob McDermott, by substantially more than that.  Prediction:  Schatz by 40.

Idaho--As I prepared to write these predictions, I couldn't remember if long-time Idaho Republican Senator Michael Crapo had retired this year or not and I had to check it out.  Turns out he didn't retire and is running for re-election, which is all I needed to know to figure out that he would win in a landslide as he always does.  Some Dude Democratic challenger David Roth, who I'm quite confident is not connected in any way to Van Halen, got the Democratic nomination with less than 20,000 votes.  Expect him to be a wee bit outmatched by Crapo in the crimson red Gem State.  Prediction:  Crapo by 36.

Illinois--The Land of Lincoln is not favorable terrain for Republicans but I'm a bit surprised that one-term Democrat Tammy Duckworth doesn't seem to be in for even a little bit of a fight in her quest for a second term.  Republican challenger Kathy Salvi, whose primary political experience appears to be losing a Congressional race 16 years ago, is the GOP's emissary this year and seems unlikely to put up much of a fight.  With that said, Duckworth did surprisingly well downstate in 2016, besting Hillary Clinton by double digits in a significant number of counties.  But Illinois has consolidated into a Chicagoland-versus-everybody-else electoral map in recent years and no matter how pitiful of a campaign Salvi puts up, I expect a sea of red nearly everywhere south of Interstate 80 next month, including in many counties that Duckworth won six years ago.  Prediction:  Duckworth by 12.

Indiana--I saw a poll a few weeks ago indicating that first-term Indiana Republican Todd Young had only a mid-single-digit lead against his Democratic challenger, Hammond mayor Thomas McDermott, but I'm not buying it.  Demographics in the Hoosier State have been very kind to Republicans in the Trump era after the state's flirtation with Democrats 15 years ago, and as is the case in so many states with above-average numbers of working-class whites, Republicans have significantly outperformed the Indiana polls in recent cycles.  Without having any real idea of the kind of campaign McDermott is running, I expect that pattern to continue and him to be crushed by Young this year.  Prediction:  Young by 20.

Iowa--For the umptieth cycle in a row, some polls indicate a close race pending for the Iowa Senate race, with octogenarian Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley running for an eighth term and showing some indication of having overstayed his welcome.  Ultimately, his metamorphosis from a deal-making moderate to a MAGA ideologue probably constitutes the biggest loss of his bipartisan cred that's helped him win 15+ point landslides in every race going back to 1980, but it happens to be occurring at the same time that Iowa is realigning into a safe red state.  Democratic challenger Michael Franken came from out of nowhere to score an impressive primary win and has run a pretty solid campaign, but I'm not buying that Franken will be able to unseat Grassley in this difficult cycle or that he'll come particularly close.  It's been a decade since polls were even close to being right in the white working-class-heavy Hawkeye State and even though the Selzer poll showing the race close has more street cred than most, I'm betting the undecideds break overwhelmingly to Grassley and that he wins all of the counties that Donald Trump twice prevailed in.  Until I see any evidence otherwise, I'm operating on the assumption that Iowa has become the political equivalent of Nebraska and Missouri in the post-Trump era, dooming Franken from capitalizing on voters' Grassley burnout.  Prediction:  Grassley by 9.

Kansas--After the huge win in the abortion rights election over the summer, you'd think Democrats would consider the outside possibility of taking out two-term Republican Senator Jerry Moran this year, but despite a hotly contested gubernatorial race, there's no indication that anybody thinks Moran can be beaten.  His Democratic challenger, former Kansas City Mayor Mark Holland, seems well-positioned to continue the gains Democrats are making throughout the upscale suburbs of Kansas City, but expect him to fall far short of taking down Moran statewide.  Prediction:  Moran by 22.

Kentucky--Back in 2016, I was surprised that Republican Senator Rand Paul didn't have a more comprehensively dominating re-election victory than he got, particularly with Trump on the ballot and outperforming Paul by about 10 points.  This year, Paul is being challenged by Louisville legislator Charles Booker, who has pretty significant name identification due to his media blitz following the Breonna Taylor shooting, but it's not the kind of familiarity that I expect will help him much in a statewide race in the Bluegrass State.  While I don't think the population centers of Louisville or Lexington are winnable for Republicans anymore even in a landslide, I suspect Paul's victory will otherwise more closely resemble that sweeping win I expected him to get six years ago.  Prediction:  Paul by 26.

Louisiana--Freshman Republican John Kennedy is a real character who absolutely loves the camera.  There's no doubt Pelican State voters will reward him with re-election on November 8's jungle primary where neither his lone Republican challenger or any of his lightweight Democratic competitors should give him any trouble.  Prediction:  Kennedy by 27

Maryland--The expansion of the Beltway economy has turned the already blue Old Line State into one of the nation's most impenetrably blue enclaves.  Democratic freshman Chris Van Hollen will skate to re-election against perennial Republican challenger Chris Chaffee, but expect it to be a low turnout affair with so few competitive races.  Prediction:  Van Hollen by 30.

Missouri--Republican Senator Roy Blunt is calling it a career this cycle after winning a race he wasn't expected to win six years ago.  Since then, the Show Me State has consolidated into a state that's effectively impossible for a Democrat to win, at least in federal races.  Democrats were hopeful that disgraced GOP Governor Eric Greitens would win a primary he was long favored to prevail in, but Missouri is so far gone that even Greitens would have won by double digits if he'd been the nominee.  Instead, Republicans went with the safer option of Attorney General Eric Schmitt, and he'll be challenging beer heiress Trudy Valentine Busch, whose profile perfectly encapsulates the changing profile of the Democratic Party.  The polls depict a healthy Schmitt lead and aren't close, but expect the long-standing Missouri tradition of Republicans dramatically outperforming polls to continue this year and for Schmitt to win a bigger blowout than expected.  Prediction:  Schmitt by 18.

Nevada--After several cycles of Democratic dominance in the Silver State, there's plenty of indication that a correction is coming, gravely endangering Democratic freshman Catherine Cortez Masto in her bid for a second term.  In the "demographics are destiny" era before Trump, it was easy to take for granted that Nevada's diverse demographic mix would make it a nearly impenetrable Democratic fortress moving forward.  A good share of Nevada's Democratic coalition was made up by white union workers without a college degree, a group whose support for Democrats has completely collapsed.  And making matters worse, the Democrats are also bleeding Hispanic support.  It's unclear at this point just how bad the bleeding is with Hispanics, who make up about a third of Nevada's population, and I suspect it's hard for the poll modeling to effectively measure it.  With that in mind, Cortez Masto could prove to be unexpectedly strong if the Reid Machine of a decade ago is in any way transferable to the 2022 electorate.  Still, Republican challenger Adam Laxalt has shown small leads in most polls, and that's a very strong place to be against an incumbent in a state that unexpectedly trended to the right of the national average in 2020.  Prediction:  Laxalt by 3.  GOP +2

New Hampshire--The Democrats' luckiest break in the 2022 Senate races came when popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu opted to run for another gubernatorial term rather than challenge freshman Democrat Maggie Hassan, who won by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2016.  Absent Sununu, a ragtag clown show ensued for the GOP nomination and the election-denying MAGA guy Don Bolduc prevailed with the nomination, nearly assuring Hassan of re-election.  This race could have gone very differently, and if New Hampshire was a shade more purple, I could still imagine Bolduc being competitive.  But I don't think he's the flavor of pudding that's gonna appeal to Granite State independents.  With that said, the electorate is sufficiently polarized and the environment for Democrats has gotten bad enough that I still don't think Hassan will have anything resembling a landslide.  Prediction:  Hassan by 6.

New York--Long-time Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer is heading for another landslide re-election victory in the Empire State against Republican challenger Joe Pinion.  That outcome is in doubt by nobody.  But don't expect the kind of comprehensive wins Schumer has gotten in the past.  Even in 2016, Schumer swept all but a handful of counties in the Empire State just as he did in his two previous runs, but expect the Trump realignment to hold in plenty of jurisdictions upstate, with several counties that went twice for Obama flipping red against Schumer this year.  Prediction:  Schumer by 24.

North Carolina--For the duration of the general election campaign, Democrat Cheri Beasley, the former chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court, was putting up an impressive fight against Republican Congressman Ted Budd in the polls to fill the open Senate seat occupied by retiring three-term Republican Richard Burr.  Long-time watchers of North Carolina elections were nonetheless skeptical as polls showing ties or narrow leads for Democrats in the Tar Heel State almost always seem to end with narrow Republican wins.  Recently, however, Budd has managed to pull ahead of Beasley even before the inevitable election night surprise.  It won't be a landslide win for Budd, but it will be decisive in this state whose demographic tug of war always seems to narrowly come out on the side of the GOP.  Prediction:  Budd by 6.

North Dakota--Two-term Republican incumbent John Hoeven was Governor of the Flickertail State before he moved to the Senate, and governed from the center-left during his tenure.  There was some speculation among observers that Hoeven would be a moderate in the Senate, but he's followed a pretty predictable, party-line posture in his 12 years.  Of course that hasn't hurt him in increasingly conservative North Dakota and won't be a problem for him in 2022 either as he'll easily lay waste to his token Democratic challenger, college professor Katrina Christiansen.  Hoeven may well get the largest victory of any Senate candidate this year.  Prediction:  Hoeven by 47.  

Ohio--It's hard to imagine Republicans nominating a sketchier candidate for statewide office than author/con man J.D. Vance, but thanks to a Trump endorsement, Vance managed to win the GOP primary and head into the general election against what passes for a strong Democratic challenger in today's red-trending Buckeye State.  Youngstown Congressman Tim Ryan represents the final credible flicker of light for the Democrats' origins as the working man's party, and thanks to a well-organized campaign, found himself leading Vance in the polls for months.  Most election analysts figured the fundamentals would ultimately prevail in this race, however, and every indication is that they are as the campaign approaches its final weeks.  Vance is edging ahead in most polls, and of course Ohio's demographics are such that polls have significantly undercounted Republican support in several recent cycles, giving me a reasonable suspicion that Vance's victory will be largely than expected in the end.  Ultimately, I suspect Ryan will outperform the generic Democrat in the Mahoning Valley which he's represented in Congress for the last 20 years, but can expect to match the recent partisan baseline just about everywhere else.  The result of such a coalition is a decisive win for the huckster Vance.  Prediction:  Vance by 6.

Oklahoma--When first-term Senator James Lankford declared on January 6th that he wasn't going to contest the outcome of the 2020 election any longer, I figured he'd get beaten by a conservative challenger in the dark red Sooner State, but Lankford held on in the primary and should have a very easy re-election victory in November.  The Democrats have an interesting (and attractive) young candidate in Madison Horn, but she'll be pasted in one of the nation's most Republican states.  Prediction:  Lankford by 36.

Oklahoma Special--Long-time Republican Senator Jim Inhofe retired early due to his wife's health issues earlier this year, leaving a special election to fill out his seat in November.  Eastern Oklahoma Republican Congressman Markwayne Mullin got the nod for the GOP side while former Oklahoma City Congresswoman Kendra Horn (no relation to Madison Horn in the other race) is the Democrats' emissary.  I suspect Kendra Horn to accomplish something not done in 18 years and win at least one county in a federal election in Oklahoma, but she'll still fall many points short of victory.  Prediction:  Mullin by 28.

Oregon--Democrat Ron Wyden is running for his fifth term and will win it handily as he always has, being an elder statesman of sorts and the closest thing to a bipartisan figure in the increasingly blue state.  But just like Schumer in New York, don't expect Wyden's victory this fall to be as geographically comprehensive as his wins in the past.  The state has become too polarized for any Democrat to win anything east of the Cascades, leaving Wyden's statewide map looking remarkably similar to Biden's two years ago.  Republican flake Jo Rae Perkins, the party's Senate emissary in 2020, will reprise her role in 2022 and get trounced again.  Prediction:  Wyden by 22.

Pennsylvania--With American politics as fiercely polarized as it is, it rarely works to fully disqualify one's opponent at the outset of a campaign, at least in a battleground race where plenty of money would be flying around to set opposing narratives.  It should come as little surprise then that Trump-endorsed TV doctor Mehmet Oz is suddenly highly competitive in the Senate race where he appeared to be poised for a double-digit defeat two months ago.  Despite his track record of quackery, Oz doesn't come across as a wingnut, and whatever biographical and residency problems he was originally struggling with are at this point paling in comparison to Democratic challenger John Fetterman's health issues.  Having suffered a stroke on the day of the Democratic primary, Fetterman is clearly not yet fully recovered and his incoherence puts into question his ability to govern.  Beyond that, Fetterman's opponents have been quite effective in litigating his muscularly progressive policy agenda with plenty of indication that he's bleeding support among more moderate Keystone State voters who were originally intrigued by his unique profile.  Not that long ago, this race seemed like the safest bet for Democrats to flip a Republican-held seat (retiring Pat Toomey currently holds the seat), but Fetterman's collapse has been so comprehensive that I'm now expecting Oz is more likely to pull ahead as the undecideds seem likely to break for the out party.  It's hard to overstate how terrible of a night it would be for Democrats if their rising star John Fetterman got defeated by Dr. Oz, but right now that's where my money is going.  Prediction:  Oz by 1.

South Carolina--Republican incumbent Tim Scott will cruise to re-election against Democratic challenger Krystle Matthews, particularly after Matthews got caught by Project Veritas making some racial comments that aren't likely to go over well among white voters in the Palmetto State.  It's not like Scott was in any trouble even without Matthews' controversy though, and frankly given Scott's temperament, demographic profile, and crossover appeal in prior elections, I'm surprised his name isn't front and center for a Presidential run.  Prediction:  Scott by 25.

South Dakota--From George McGovern to Larry Pressler to Tom Daschle to Tim Johnson, we have a half century of history confirming that South Dakotans simply don't elect their Senators to a fourth term!  But that quirk of history is poised to get broken this fall as Republican John Thune will skate into his fourth term against token Democratic challenger Brian Bengs.  It's rather astonishing how complete the Democratic collapse has been in both Dakotas considering that they each had two Democratic Senators a generation ago.  Prediction:  Thune by 39.

Utah--Six years ago, Evan McMullin ran for President as a mainstream conservative alternative to Donald Trump and got more than 20% of the vote in his native Utah.  McMullin's evolution continues in 2022 as he is running as an independent for the Utah Senate seat, although it seems likely he'd caucus with the Democrats if elected, particularly having won the Democratic endorsement against an actual Democrat.  On paper, McMullin represents the best chance in generations of wrestling a Senate seat out of Republican hands, but ultimately two-term GOP incumbent Mike Lee is highly likely to be re-elected in the Beehive State.  For my entire life, Utah has been the nation's most consistently Republican state but its traditions were shook a bit due to widespread Mormon aversion to Donald Trump.  Don't expect that aversion to get much traction downballot though, at least not enough to pose a real problem for Lee.  Prediction:  Lee by 26.

Vermont--After 48 years in office, Democrat Pat Leahy is finally calling it a career, leaving a rare open seat in the Green Mountain State.  In a classically Vermont move, Leahy's likely successor is long-time Democratic Congressman Peter Welch who is looking to be a freshman Senator at age 75.  Random Republican challenger Gerald Malloy, who won the GOP primary with a whopping 12,000 votes, will be crushed in the state the has become America's bluest.  Prediction:  Welch by 43.

Washington--Democrat Patty Murray is running for her sixth term and seems very likely to get it.  Back in 2010, Murray was vulnerable and only pulled out that year's contest by 2 points, but the Evergreen State has consolidated even more into the Democratic column since then.  Murray's GOP challenger, nurse Tiffany Smiley, certainly seems like a lightweight, although polling hasn't been quite as lopsided as one might expect, suggesting some exhaustion with Murray as well as some realignment in more working-class areas of the state that were quite recently very blue.  I'm still betting on a pretty decisive re-election for Murray, however.  Prediction:  Murray by 12.

Wisconsin--There are few people in American politics today more loathsome than two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson.  It may be hard to wrap one's mind around the fact that a state that voted for Joe Biden (along with disproportionate numbers of Democrats in other recent cycles as well) keeps sending Johnson back to Washington, but it speaks to the long-running schizophrenia of Badger State voters swinging from left to right with no clear pattern.  Johnson staged one of the most breathtaking comebacks of all-time in his 2016 race, having been trailing by double-digits in the polls until weeks before the election and then surging ahead for a decisive re-election victory against Russ Feingold.  So when polls this summer indicated Johnson was badly trailing yet again, most political analysts took it with a grain of salt.  The only difference in 2022 compared to 2016 thus far has been that Johnson's stampeding comeback appears to have happened a month earlier in the cycle as Johnson has already  pulled ahead of Democratic Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes in recent polls.  I'm not sure exactly what line of attack Johnson has been leveling against Barnes but it seems to be brutally effective judging by the poll shifts.  Given how Republicans have dramatically outperformed Badger State polls in recent cycles, it's hard to envision a scenario where Johnson fails to pull off a third term at this point.  Prediction:  Johnson by 5.

It's important to note that, this year more than ever, I could envision myself being way off in these predictions.  It's entirely possible that the August bounce Democrats experienced when they outperformed expectations in a number of special elections could hold.  Maybe the political world really did change after the Dobbs ruling.  Furthermore, while the polling errors we saw in previous cycles all seemed to undercount Republicans, I can't dismiss the possibility that pollsters have overcorrected this year and are bestowing Republican voters more polling strength than they deserve.  At least historically, that has been the ebb and flow of polling over the years, with erroneous modeling never consistently occurring in a straight partisan line.  But I'm inclined to think there's more going on here in a direction that will likely continue to imperil Democrats as the death of the landline has created an existential challenge for the polling industry to reach likely voters.  The response rate to pollsters is now below 1%, meaning a poll of 500 respondents would require more than 50,000 calls.  Polling conducted this way means you're likely to hit the same diminished number of willing participants over and over.  Such was the case with me several cycles ago as I made a point of answering polls right up until the point where they began calling me nearly every single night.  And given that those who've continued to respond to pollsters has skewed college-educated and Democrat-leaning in recent years, it's unclear why that would change moving forward.  That's why, in my final prediction, I have Republicans picking up 1 or 2 seats (depending on the unpredictable Georgia runoff outcome) and re-taking control of the Senate next year after only two years of Democratic control.

As an aside, I have to go back to 1994--when I was a junior in high school--since I was less engaged in an election cycle than this one.  I said that before and, while my interest level increases some as election day draws nearer, the nature of polarization and "college boys versus the deplorables" partisan coalitions have left me cold.  I'll continue to make my predictions and report on the outcomes, but the days of me eating, sleeping, and breathing elections every even-numbered year are probably over.  That's kind of sad to admit, but not a fraction as sad as how badly our political discourse and issue landscape has deteriorated in the last decade.