Patty Wetterling Gets the Nod
It took seven rounds of balloting to seal the deal, but DFL delegates in Minnesota's 6th district decided in favor of children's advocate Patty Wetterling over former Blaine Mayor Elwyn Tinklenberg at Saturday's endorsement convention. Both candidates swore to abide by the endorsement, so it's almost assured that Wetterling will be facing off against GOP wingnut Michele Bachmann for the open seat vacated by U.S. Senate aspirant Mark Kennedy.
The reason Wetterling's nomination wasn't a blowout is the hamhanded way she got into the race. Two years ago, Wetterling was thoroughly slimed by the forces of Karl Rove and Mark Kennedy in her original quest to attain the seat. Reasonable voters recoiled in disgust at the attack ads and Wetterling seemed to have benefitted from it, losing the conservative district by only seven points to the seemingly untouchable two-term incumbent even as Bush steamrolled Kerry by 15 points in the district. At that point, Wetterling got a little too big for her breeches, and after hearing that Mark Dayton chose not to run for a second Senate term, Wetterling fancied herself politically competent enough to challenge Kennedy (already a declared candidate for the GOP) statewide, abandoning the possibility of another run for MN-06 where she would have been an instant frontrunner. Wetterling's Senate candidacy was over almost before it started as the establishment unilaterally lined up behind the more charismatic Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar. Wetterling realized she had made a grave mistake, and her promise to announced MN-06 candidate Tinklenberg that she wouldn't run made Wetterling's political future seem grim.
But of course promises in the political world are made to be broken and Wetterling hoodwinked Tinklenberg in February by changing her mind and pulling off another Congressional race jujitsu, resurrecting her MN-06 ambition even though she publicly admitted she didn't believe she could win the race last year.
Wetterling's journey is generally not the most expedient way of winning a contested endorsement nomination, but she pulled it off on Saturday nonetheless. I was officially neutral in the race, but found Patty's deception and lack of political instinct to be rather unsettling given how difficult it will be to win this district. On the other hand, she has name solid name recognition (as opposed to "Elwyn Tinklenberg") and a respected reputation. She also has the luxury of running against the biggest nut in the Minnesota Legislature, who equates workplace safety regulations with "Marxism". Anywhere else in Minnesota, Bachmann would be DOA, but she's been twice elected to a Senate seat in the northeastern suburbs (Stillwater, Forest Lake, Lino Lakes) that while more Republican than it used to be, would not seem to be a radically conservative as their State Senator.
Looking at this race strategically, Wetterling almost has to win over voters in Bachmann's home turf in northern Washington County. This may seem like a daunting challenge, but I expect there are more independent voters embarrassed by their past decisions to vote for Bachmann than the GOP would like to believe. Beyond that, Wetterling needs a solid victory in the St. Cloud area, where she lives, which ominously for Democratic candidates, is the least conservative part of this district. Working-class second-ring suburbs like Anoka and Blaine should also be fruitful for Wetterling, provided that the bitterness of Tinklenberg supporters in the area didn't completely sour those voters on Wetterling. At the other end of the spectrum, wealthy Woodbury is usually not hospitable to Democrats, but was one of Wetterling's best performers in 2004. It seems unlikely that Bachmann's uber-conservative message will play there if the more traditional Republican message of Mark Kennedy didn't two years ago.
Bachmann's strengths are likely to be the exurbs between Minneapolis-St. Paul and St. Cloud, particularly Sherburne County (Elk River) and Wright County (Buffalo, St. Michael), neither of which I can see electing ANY Democrat under any circumstance given the mass influx of socially and economically conservative yuppies that the once swing area has absorbed in the last decade. These counties represent more than a third of MN-06's population, meaning that a strong performance by Bachmann here will be hard for Wetterling to overcome. Add that to the fact that Bachmann will probably do some pretty strong business in the Stillwater-Forest Lake area which she represents in the state Senate and we're almost assured of a fierce contest even if Wetterling pitches a perfect game in the campaign. Wetterling certainly doesn't have the luxury of making a mistake.
As for Tinklenberg, I hope he and his supporters recognize the importance of putting forth a unified front and enabling the Dems to take back this very winnable seat against the unhinged Bachmann. I can certainly understand the hard feelings Tinklenberg must hold towards Wetterling for her betrayal, but his best play would be to warmly and wholeheartedly endorse Wetterling this week, then lobby for his own insertion on the gubernatorial ticket as Mike Hatch's running mate. Strategically, this would be a fantastic political union, as Hatch needs to win over at least some suburban voters (Tinklenberg is from Blaine) if he plans to beat Pawlenty and Tinklenberg supporters will find it easier to forgive Wetterling if their man gets a prime position on a statewide ticket. The combination is likely to improve turnout throughout the district and improve both Democrats' chances. I sure hope the Hatch campaign is entertaining this same idea rather than opting for some token woman running mate that brings little strategic momentum to the table.
The reason Wetterling's nomination wasn't a blowout is the hamhanded way she got into the race. Two years ago, Wetterling was thoroughly slimed by the forces of Karl Rove and Mark Kennedy in her original quest to attain the seat. Reasonable voters recoiled in disgust at the attack ads and Wetterling seemed to have benefitted from it, losing the conservative district by only seven points to the seemingly untouchable two-term incumbent even as Bush steamrolled Kerry by 15 points in the district. At that point, Wetterling got a little too big for her breeches, and after hearing that Mark Dayton chose not to run for a second Senate term, Wetterling fancied herself politically competent enough to challenge Kennedy (already a declared candidate for the GOP) statewide, abandoning the possibility of another run for MN-06 where she would have been an instant frontrunner. Wetterling's Senate candidacy was over almost before it started as the establishment unilaterally lined up behind the more charismatic Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar. Wetterling realized she had made a grave mistake, and her promise to announced MN-06 candidate Tinklenberg that she wouldn't run made Wetterling's political future seem grim.
But of course promises in the political world are made to be broken and Wetterling hoodwinked Tinklenberg in February by changing her mind and pulling off another Congressional race jujitsu, resurrecting her MN-06 ambition even though she publicly admitted she didn't believe she could win the race last year.
Wetterling's journey is generally not the most expedient way of winning a contested endorsement nomination, but she pulled it off on Saturday nonetheless. I was officially neutral in the race, but found Patty's deception and lack of political instinct to be rather unsettling given how difficult it will be to win this district. On the other hand, she has name solid name recognition (as opposed to "Elwyn Tinklenberg") and a respected reputation. She also has the luxury of running against the biggest nut in the Minnesota Legislature, who equates workplace safety regulations with "Marxism". Anywhere else in Minnesota, Bachmann would be DOA, but she's been twice elected to a Senate seat in the northeastern suburbs (Stillwater, Forest Lake, Lino Lakes) that while more Republican than it used to be, would not seem to be a radically conservative as their State Senator.
Looking at this race strategically, Wetterling almost has to win over voters in Bachmann's home turf in northern Washington County. This may seem like a daunting challenge, but I expect there are more independent voters embarrassed by their past decisions to vote for Bachmann than the GOP would like to believe. Beyond that, Wetterling needs a solid victory in the St. Cloud area, where she lives, which ominously for Democratic candidates, is the least conservative part of this district. Working-class second-ring suburbs like Anoka and Blaine should also be fruitful for Wetterling, provided that the bitterness of Tinklenberg supporters in the area didn't completely sour those voters on Wetterling. At the other end of the spectrum, wealthy Woodbury is usually not hospitable to Democrats, but was one of Wetterling's best performers in 2004. It seems unlikely that Bachmann's uber-conservative message will play there if the more traditional Republican message of Mark Kennedy didn't two years ago.
Bachmann's strengths are likely to be the exurbs between Minneapolis-St. Paul and St. Cloud, particularly Sherburne County (Elk River) and Wright County (Buffalo, St. Michael), neither of which I can see electing ANY Democrat under any circumstance given the mass influx of socially and economically conservative yuppies that the once swing area has absorbed in the last decade. These counties represent more than a third of MN-06's population, meaning that a strong performance by Bachmann here will be hard for Wetterling to overcome. Add that to the fact that Bachmann will probably do some pretty strong business in the Stillwater-Forest Lake area which she represents in the state Senate and we're almost assured of a fierce contest even if Wetterling pitches a perfect game in the campaign. Wetterling certainly doesn't have the luxury of making a mistake.
As for Tinklenberg, I hope he and his supporters recognize the importance of putting forth a unified front and enabling the Dems to take back this very winnable seat against the unhinged Bachmann. I can certainly understand the hard feelings Tinklenberg must hold towards Wetterling for her betrayal, but his best play would be to warmly and wholeheartedly endorse Wetterling this week, then lobby for his own insertion on the gubernatorial ticket as Mike Hatch's running mate. Strategically, this would be a fantastic political union, as Hatch needs to win over at least some suburban voters (Tinklenberg is from Blaine) if he plans to beat Pawlenty and Tinklenberg supporters will find it easier to forgive Wetterling if their man gets a prime position on a statewide ticket. The combination is likely to improve turnout throughout the district and improve both Democrats' chances. I sure hope the Hatch campaign is entertaining this same idea rather than opting for some token woman running mate that brings little strategic momentum to the table.
posted by Mark at 4:50 PM
4 Comments:
How does a smart, funny and nice kid from the conservative belt of Minnesota end up a leaning this far to the left?
For starters, I grew up in Freeborn County, which has went for every Democratic Presidential candidate since 1972, so technically I'm from the "liberal buckle" of the "conservative belt".
As for how my politics were defined, it's a combination of familial upbringing, falling upon some hard times at a fairly young age and learning who my friends were (and who my friends weren't), and a long-standing commitment to social and economic justice. For me, choosing a political ideology to align myself with could not be clearer. The unconscionable excesses of Bush era have only made the choice more obvious.
Freeborn County didn't even vote for Reagan? The greatest president of our generation?
Freeborn County twice turned out Ronald Reagan for his Democratic betters. Keep in mind that under the watch of the "greatest President ever", the two largest employers in the county were slashing wages by double-digit percentages circa 1983. Generally, taking a 30% pay cut isn't the best motivation for voters to head to the polls and choose in favor of an encore.
By the way, I am speaking with the "NRHEG Class of '96" Tom that I suspect I am??
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