Gubernatorial Race Updates

Things have changed quite a bit in some of the 2006 gubernatorial races since I last profiled them in February. Here's a rundown on this fall's contests and my thoughts on how they'll end up on November 7:

Alabama--The primary was held last month and shook out the runners-up for this contest which was challenged by both parties. On the GOP side, incumbent Republican Bob Riley overcame his early negatives to comfortably defeat evangelical nutball Roy Moore. On the Democratic side, Lieutenant Governor Lucy Baxley was victorious over former Governor Don Siegelman, thankfully considering Siegelman was convicted of the crimes he was accused of just a few days later. While incumbent Riley seemed very vulnerable a year ago thanks to some unpopular tax increases he endorsed, he has won back many of his conservative detractors and now seems poised to be comfortably re-elected. Baxley could still turn this into a contest, but I have little doubt Riley will prevail.

Alaska--Unpopular Republican incumbent Frank Murkowski surprised alot of people when he declared his intent to run for re-election, despite approval ratings running below 25%. It's starting to look as though former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles will be Murkowski's likely challenger. Alaska is much more open to electing Democratic Governors than Senators, and have elected Knowles before. With that in mind, I can't imagine Murkowski can win re-election with approval ratings as low as his.

Arizona--Democratic incumbent Janet Napolitano appears poised to cruise to a second term by a wide margin. Her Republican opponent has yet to be determined, but it seems unlikely that any of them will be able to overcome the more than 20-point deficits they're currently facing against Napolitano, a prospect enjoyed by Democrats who hope Napolitano can help lead to victory two Democratic challengers in hotly-contested House races.

Arkansas--Every poll is showing that Democratic Attorney General Mike Beebe has a steady and consistent lead over former Republican Congressman Asa Hutchinson to fill the gubernatorial seat being vacated by Republican Mike Huckabee. It's too soon to rule out Hutchinson, but as I said in February, Hutchinson's northwestern Arkansas baseline represents the only Republican foothold in the state, meaning he'll have to win over voters everywhere else in the state who are already familiar with the popular twice-elected Beebe and who are overwhelmingly Democratic. Barring a gaffe, Beebe should pull out a victory in Arkansas.

California--Back in February, I considered a Schwarzenegger comeback to be a one in a million shot given his toxic approval ratings following his ugly political year of 2005. My how things have changed. It's not that Schwarzenegger has gotten considerably more popular, it's just that California Democrats have all but destroyed their would-be momentum following a nasty primary battle in which liberal Phil Angelides got the best of the more electable centrist Steve Westly. Political demographics being what they are in California, Angelides could still sneak out a win if Schwarzenegger's rapid move to the center keeps conservatives from heading to the polls, but I'm less than confident about Angelides' prospects at winning over moderate Democrats and I'm expecting conservatives will still stand by Schwarzenegger as the best option they have. At this point, I'd give Arnold 60-40 odds.

Colorado--The race for this open seat is now down to pro-life Democrat Bill Ritter and Republican Bob Beauprez. My initial lean was towards Beauprez, but Ritter has actually led in the early polls. This is a tough race to handicap since Ritter's social conservatism could suppress turnout among the true blues, while Beauprez's Congressional representation of the swing district in the western Denver suburbs will be very useful towards his ability to win statewide. With that in mind, I'm standing by my initial prediction that Beauprez will pull this out come fall.

Connecticut--Republican Jodi Rell is the most popular Governor in the nation. She'll easily win re-election even in a state that's getting bluer all the time.

Florida--An open primary remains unsettled and leaves this race hard to predict. Frontrunners for the nomination are Democratic Congressman Jim Davis and Republican Attorney General Charlie Crist. Here you have the reverse as Arkansas, where the Republican is a known statewide entity and the Democrat is a D.C. transplant who represents a heavily blue district. Geography is clearly on Crist's side, as are the political trendlines in Florida. I'm not sure of the charisma gap between the candidates, but at this point, any reasonable assessment has to lean towards the advantage of Crist.

Georgia--A primary next Tuesday will determine whether Cathy Cox or Mark Taylor will be the Democrat who gets to take on incumbent Republican Sonny Purdue. I'm not well enough informed on either challenger to opine on who stands the strongest chance of upsetting Purdue. Hypothetical match-ups have been much closer than I would have anticipated, but this is the South where the benefit of the doubt almost always has to go to the Republican candidate. My guess is Purdue is re-elected with comfortable, but perhaps not overwhelming margin.

Hawaii--Despite its impressive bench, no prominent Democrat was willing to take on Republican incumbent Linda Lingle, who is seeking a second term. As staunchly Democratic as Hawaii is, the lack of serious opposition will be very unlikely to topple Lingle this fall.

Idaho--Current Republican Governor Dirk Kempthorne was recently tapped by the Bush administration for a Cabinet job, leaving his seat open. I must confess to knowing nothing about the race or the candidates, but will nonetheless call it for the Republican simply because Idaho is a 70-30 GOP state.

Illinois--Republicans chose wisely in this spring's primary selecting moderate State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka as the challenger to unpopular Democratic incumbent Rod Blagojevich. With that said, Topinka does not appear to have the kind of momentum she'll need to wipeout an incumbent in an increasingly Democratic state. It's early of course, and low voter turnout in the city of Chicago, could upset Blagojevich, but at this point things aren't looking as promising for Topinka as I expected they would. I'm leaning towards a less-than-enthusiastic voter request for Blago encore.

Iowa--A hotly-contested three-way primary for the Democratic nomination yielded a victory for golden boy Secretary of State Chet Culver, the youngest and most photogenic candidate, but perhaps not quite ready for primetime. Being wet behind the ear will not be an option for Culver to challenge political pro Jim Nussle, the conservative Congressman who has long represented a Democratic-leaning district in northeastern Iowa. Those demographics will make a Culver victory brutally difficult given that he'll have to overperform the Democratic standard throughout western and central Iowa to make up for the Democratic votes he'll inevitably lose to Nussle in eastern Iowa. Early polls have been surprisingly favorable for Culver, but I'd be surprised if he pulled it out with geography working so fiercely against him.

Kansas--In a state that has become the poster child for fanatical conservatism in recent years, it seems strange to be predicting with almost certainty that DEMOCRATIC incumbent Kathleen Sebelius appears poised to win re-election comfortably, but that's exactly what should happen.

Maine--Democratic incumbent John Baldacci is not particularly popular and early polls have showed him either even or slightly trailing Republican challenger Chandler Woodcock. At the end of the day, however, I expect Northeasterners to be going to the polls strongly favoring the Democratic party. It'll be close, but for no other reason than that, I have to give Baldacci the edge.

Maryland--With his primary opponent dropping out of the race recently, Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley will be the Democratic nominee challenging Republican incumbent Bob Ehrlich, who has been carefully walking a tight rope between moderation and pleasing his Republican base in one of the nation's most Democratic states. Early polls have been all over the place, but O'Malley is leading in just about all of them. The even higher-profile Maryland Senate race will likely boost turnout, and that would seem to favor the Democrats in both races. I doubt the most recent poll showing O'Malley running 16 points ahead will come to fruition, but am I expecting O'Malley to prevail by a modest margin.

Massachusetts--A hotly-contested three-way primary on the Democratic side continues to make this race unpredictable. Attorney General Thomas Reilly was the early frontrunner, but a mini-scandal and some uneven position points have sunk his fortunes of late. Rising at his expense is African-American legislator Deval Patrick and fellow Democratic challenger Chris Gabrieli, one of whom is now likely to prevail in the late September primary over Reilly. The good news for Democrats is that all three Democrats lead in hypothetical matchups with Republican Lieutenant Governor Kerry Healey, running for the top spot in her party. Healey’s situation got considerably worse last winter when Republican businessman Christy Mihos declared his candidacy as a third-party independent, thus dividing the paltry center-right vote in one of the nation’s most Democratic states. Whichever Democratic candidate wins the primary is the heavy favorite to be the first Democratic Governor of Massachusetts since Michael Dukakis.

Michigan—Times are tough in Michigan. Very tough. So tough in fact that attractive young Governor Jennifer Granholm has suddenly found herself the most vulnerable Democratic Governor in the nation in a state that should be comfortably blue. Granholm’s opponent is multimillionaire Amway founder Dick DeVos, who has self-financed a flashy multi-million dollar ad barrage that has impressed enough Michigan voters to put DeVos either even or slightly ahead of Granholm in most polls. With all of this in mind, I’m still not ready to write Granholm’s obituary. Even after DeVos’ mostly unanswered ads, the best he can do is a tie or small lead with Granholm. Couple that with the closet full of baggage DeVos has incurred after his many years of peddling the Amway pyramid schemes to the public, and the many horror stories that these schemes have produced, and you have a perfect recipe for DeVos’ unfavorable numbers to soar. Furthermore, Michigan’s Legislature is already dominated by Republicans. It’s very hard to imagine that a state where the least popular politician is Republican George Bush would elect a very conservative Republican Governor peddling an identical Bushian message to go along with an equally hard-right GOP Legislature who refuse to do anything but cut taxes. I’m not as confident as I was two months ago, but am still leaning towards a Granholm victory here.

Minnesota—Another race that looks to become exciting this fall is the Minnesota gubernatorial race where youthful and affable Republican rising star Tim Pawlenty has a battle on his hands in his pursuit of a second term against Democratic Attorney General Mike Hatch. Most polls show a tight race, with a couple even indicating a Hatch lead. Pawlenty’s tenure gets decidedly mixed reviews, but he remains very popular in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs where state elections are won and lost. Hatch, however, has always been popular among older voters and in outstate Minnesota, where he could conceivably cancel out Pawlenty’s suburban deficit. It will take a perfect storm for Hatch to win and any other year than this one, where Republicans appear to be in trouble all over the map, and Pawlenty would likely be a shoo-in. I’m still leaning towards a Pawlenty victory for two reasons, the charisma gap that favors Pawlenty and will become evident as the campaign kicks into high gear, and the presence of center-left Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson poised to steal votes almost exclusively from Hatch.

Nebraska—Last spring, acting Republican Governor Dave Heineman upset Congressman and former Nebraska Cornhuskers head coach Tom Osborne in the primary for this fall’s race. Now that the hard race is over, Heineman should breeze into a full term against Democratic challenger David Hahn.

Nevada—It’s still a wide open race for the Nevada gubernatorial contest, but most polls show the frontrunner to be Republican Congressman Jim Gibbons. Given my modest knowledge of specifics of this race, I’m leaning towards a Gibbons victory.

New Hampshire—Democratic incumbent John Lynch is very popular even in this fiscally conservative state. He’ll win another term by a 2-1 margin.

New Mexico—Democratic Governor and future Presidential candidate Bill Richardson will have no trouble at all winning a second term against token GOP opposition.

New York—If ever there was a sure thing for a statehouse to change hands, it’s in New York where outgoing Republican George Pataki is virtually guaranteed to be replaced by wildly popular Democratic Attorney General Elliot Spitzer. Spitzer leads his soft Republican challenger by nearly 3-1 margins in every poll.

Ohio—Another statehouse that seems poised to change from red to blue this fall is Ohio, where a litany of Republican scandals has went right to the top and helped outgoing Republican Governor Bob Taft secure the worst approval rating in the nation (an average about 17%.) The open seat pits centrist Democratic Congressman Ted Strickland from rural southern Ohio against the GOP’s arch-conservative African-American Secretary of State Ken Blackwell. There’s still a great deal of bad blood between Blackwell and Kerry voters based on some questionable election tactics Blackwell employed while overseeing the Presidential election. Combine that with Strickland’s cross-party appeal and the result is likely to play out as polls indicate….a comfortable victory for Strickland that could potentially help out Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown.

Oklahoma—In national politics, Oklahoma is about as bright red of a state as there is. At the statewide level, however, there are still plenty of conservative Democrats willing to vote for like-minded Democratic candidates. A good case in point is incumbent Democratic Governor Brad Henry, who toes a pretty conservative line and has left little room for Oklahoma City Congressman and Republican challenger Ernest Istook to operate. Early polls show Henry with a commanding lead. I expect the lead to shrink, but unless Henry makes a gaffe (which wouldn’t really take much for a Democrat in OK) he should get another term.

Oregon—This race has been pretty low-profile and my knowledge of it is minimal, but polls seem to indicate that since winning last spring’s primary, Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski is poised to defeat his Republican challenger and win a second term. Until I see evidence to the contrary, I’ll abide by that call.

Pennsylania—Last winter, Pennsylvania Republicans took advantage of some terrific timing (the Steelers’ Super Bowl win) to rally around a candidate that seemed like a recruitment lottery, former Pittsburgh Steeler icon Lynn Swann. And for awhile, the photogenic African-American candidate was giving incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell a serious run for his money in the polls, but Swann has been making a seemingly endless number of mistakes as he proceeds with his campaign and has found himself running 15-25 points behind in more recent polls. Unless he recaptures his footing, and fast, the not-quite-ready-for-primetime reputation that Swann has built for himself with his lackluster campaign will assure Rendell of cinching a second term.

Rhode Island—In February, I speculated the incumbent Republican Donald Carceiri should be able to win another term because he has decent approval ratings and because liberal Rhode Islanders don’t mind electing moderate Republicans to provide a check against the Democrat-dominated Legislature. I still feel that way, but with not nearly as much confidence as before. Carcieri is essentially tied with his Democratic challenger in most polls, indicating a visceral disgust with the GOP at every level among Rhode Island voters. Carceiri still has a pretty strong case to make for his re-election, and may in fact get it accomplished, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he’s yet another casualty of the anti-GOP tide sweeping the northeast.

South Carolina—Back in February, I confidently stated that Republican incumbent Mark Sanford was a sure bet for re-election in this uber-conservative state. I wasn’t aware of some controversial comments and votes Sanford had made which undermined his popularity with fellow Republicans, so much so that conservative legislator Jake Knotts strongly contemplated challenging him as an independent in the fall. Just last week, Knotts decided against challenging Sanford, which makes him quite secure again simply because he’s running in South Carolina with an (R ) next to his name. A divided conservative vote between Sanford and Knotts could have helped Democratic challenger Tommy Moore sneak in a victory, but in a one-on-one race with Sanford, it’s hard to imagine how Moore can win in this state no matter how unpopular Sanford is.

South Dakota—Despite the embarrassing controversy surrounding the idiotic abortion ban supported by incumbent Republican Mike Rounds, his popularity remains high and he is strongly positioned for a landslide re-election against Democratic rival Jack Billion.

Tennessee—Even though Tennessee gets more Republican with each passing year, conservative incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen has only token opposition this year and is poised for a landslide victory, potentially helping Democrat Harold Ford in the Senate race.

Texas—An intriguing four-candidate race has developed in Texas, but the likely outcome will be the same as always comes from Texas anymore….a Republican victory. A smorgasbord of center-right and center-left candidates including Democrat Chris Bell and Independents Carole Strayhorn and Kinky Friedman will sufficiently divide the vote amongst each other and let unpopular Republican incumbent Rick Perry to sneak in with 38-42% of the vote. It’s possible Perry could have been defeated with a unified opposition, but all but impossible with three candidates running against him from the left.

Vermont—Moderate Republican incumbent Jim Douglas does not seem likely to suffer the fate of other northeastern Republicans this year. Despite governing one of the most liberal states in the country, Douglas enjoys a commanding lead over token Democratic opposition.

Wisconsin—Democratic incumbent Jim Doyle has never been very popular and his re-election is far from a shoo-in, but he represents a centrist counterbalance to Wisconsin’s strongly Republican Legislature, and it appears voters are recognizing that as recent polls have showed Doyle enlarging his lead against Republican challenger Mark Green.

Wyoming—Even though it’s in a near three-way tie as the nation’s most Republican state, Wyoming elected a centrist Democratic Governor in 2002 and he’s enjoying stratospheric approval ratings. Dave Freudenthal’s re-election seems all but assured and could conceivably give the Democrats a top prospect for a Senate candidate as soon as one of the GOP incumbents retires.

All in all, the Democrats are looking pretty good for the 2006 gubernatorial races, but by and large, these races are just for decoration. The really important gubernatorial races will come in 2008 and 2010, as whoever happens to be Governor of the battleground states come 2011 will play a large role in shaping Congressional district lines after the next Census. The Democrats got filleted by Republican-friendly gerrymanders in important states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Florida, among other places, after the 2001 reapportionment, and continue to suffer for it today. Meanwhile, the Dems made out like bandits in Southern states like North Carolina and Georgia that had Democratic majorities in 2001 but are far less likely to in 2011. The Dems could be solidified as a long-term minority party if they don’t win state elections heading into 2011. With that in mind, I have mixed feelings on how well I want the Dems to do in 2006 gubernatorial races. If they position themselves to lose ground come 2008 and 2010, a string of 2006 victories could prove more of a setback than an asset.