Lieberman vs. Lamont
Like most people, I seriously underestimated the challenge multi-millionaire businessman Ned Lamont posed to three-term incumbent Senator and former Vice-Presidential candidate Joe Lieberman in the Connecticut primary. I no longer underestimate Lamont, and at this point expect him to win next Tuesday's primary, probably by a fairly wide margin.
I've made no secret about the fact that I believe this primary was the wrong battle for Democrats to choose. Lieberman has made himself the poster boy for squishy "bipartisanship" and his national profile will turn the media into sharks in a feeding frenzy if he loses. For weeks, if not months, following the likely defeat of Lieberman, Democratic leaders attempting to convey their efforts to unseat Republicans in the fall will instead be forced to choose sides between the "Democrat" Lamont or the "independent" Lieberman.....with Chris Matthews and Tim Russert relishing every opportunity they get to make Chuck Schumer squirm on the topic.
An even worse scenario is the likelihood that the GOP uses a Lieberman primary defeat as a sword to thrust into the bosoms of red-state Democrats in places like Missouri and Montana. I can hear the GOP ads now...."How can Claire McCaskill be an 'independent voice for Missouri' like she claims when she belongs to a party who refuses to support its former Vice-Presidential candidate because he only voted for them 90% of the time instead of 100%?"
Apprehensions aside, it does me little good now to wish this primary distraction would go away. It's here to stay and Democrats have to be prepared to sleep in the bed we've made for ourselves after August 8. I have nothing against Lamont and have little doubt he'd be a better Senator for Connecticut than Lieberman if he wins. I'm no longer convinced a general election victory is out of the question for Lamont given the strength of his campaign, the weakness of Lieberman's campaign, and the fervent anti-war attitude in Connecticut. I just hope the Democratic Party has a plan (fat chance, huh?) to quell the "party divided" web the media will inevitably spin if (or more likely when) Lieberman loses the primary next Tuesday and plods onward as an independent candidate. At least for now, I can only foresee obstacles for the Democratic Party's November goal of defeating Republicans as a result of this primary. I sure hope I'm pleasantly surprised.
I've made no secret about the fact that I believe this primary was the wrong battle for Democrats to choose. Lieberman has made himself the poster boy for squishy "bipartisanship" and his national profile will turn the media into sharks in a feeding frenzy if he loses. For weeks, if not months, following the likely defeat of Lieberman, Democratic leaders attempting to convey their efforts to unseat Republicans in the fall will instead be forced to choose sides between the "Democrat" Lamont or the "independent" Lieberman.....with Chris Matthews and Tim Russert relishing every opportunity they get to make Chuck Schumer squirm on the topic.
An even worse scenario is the likelihood that the GOP uses a Lieberman primary defeat as a sword to thrust into the bosoms of red-state Democrats in places like Missouri and Montana. I can hear the GOP ads now...."How can Claire McCaskill be an 'independent voice for Missouri' like she claims when she belongs to a party who refuses to support its former Vice-Presidential candidate because he only voted for them 90% of the time instead of 100%?"
Apprehensions aside, it does me little good now to wish this primary distraction would go away. It's here to stay and Democrats have to be prepared to sleep in the bed we've made for ourselves after August 8. I have nothing against Lamont and have little doubt he'd be a better Senator for Connecticut than Lieberman if he wins. I'm no longer convinced a general election victory is out of the question for Lamont given the strength of his campaign, the weakness of Lieberman's campaign, and the fervent anti-war attitude in Connecticut. I just hope the Democratic Party has a plan (fat chance, huh?) to quell the "party divided" web the media will inevitably spin if (or more likely when) Lieberman loses the primary next Tuesday and plods onward as an independent candidate. At least for now, I can only foresee obstacles for the Democratic Party's November goal of defeating Republicans as a result of this primary. I sure hope I'm pleasantly surprised.
posted by Mark at 5:28 PM
5 Comments:
I sure hope Lieberman wins the primary. That would help me keep my Connecticut predictions as simple as possible. (:P) Though seriously I too am worried about the backlash. We are supposed to be the party of inclusion. Cindy Sheehan almost waged a primary challenge against Feinstein for a similar reason; Marcy Winograd did wage a challenge and garnered over 30% against Blue Dog Jane Harman in CA-36. We had a field day at Kos on this race while trying to keep our heads screwed on over the gov race.
A few of my friends are going crazy after hearing even staunch liberal Barbara Boxer defending Lieberman. Ditto for the Clintons. Uh, we are the party of inclusion.
(Even Blaine is concerned about the fallout from this primary.)
PS: I just found out that the CA-50 special is being challenged in court because of easily-tampered voting machines. Some people have said this case could benefit Busby. I'm not taking any sides; I am just going to sit back, watch, and see how the case proceeds (and I know about the immigration thing).
The latest Rasmussen poll had Joe down 41-51.
Unfortunately I will not be able to see the immediate returns from this primary as the day before the primary I will be boarding a plane to Brazil with my boyfriend (that's where he's from, and we're visiting his relatives there) and will not return until the last weekend of August (after all the August primaries have passed).
I get the sense that Lamont is Ronald Reagan to Joe Lieberman's Jimmy Carter at this point in the contest. Lamont's charisma and insurgency will drown the unpopular (with CT Democrats anyway) and caught-off-guard Lieberman. I'd be VERY surprised if Lieberman won at this point.
Sara, you'll be leaving not long after I'll be returning. I'm gonna post my monthly "GOP Asshat of the Month" entry later tonight but then head home for the local fair (without blog access) for the rest of the week. See everyone next week.
New poll from Quinnipiac gives Lamont a wider lead:
Lamont: 54% Lieberman: 41%
www.quinnipiac.edu/x11362.xml?ReleaseID=943
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