Republicans Don't Really Believe They're Gonna Lose Congress
The bullshit is getting deep in the GOP strategist swamp these days....even deeper than usual. The primary advocates of boosting Democrats' prognoses for victory in the House appear to be Republican strategists. Proving that point, Sunday's "Washington Post" column by Dan Balz and David Broder featured two GOP strategists stating "on condition of anonymity" that Dems have, respectively, 75% and 90% chances of winning back the House in November.
Republican strategists don't really believe they only have a one-in-ten chance of retaining the House. They're spinning a web in which the media, hungry for a story, artificially inflates Democrats' expectations, triggering overconfidence among Democratic voters, fear among Republican voters, and a sense of inevitability among independents. If it becomes a base election where the Democrats are cocky, the Republicans are scared, the independents are blase and disengaged, and the media are clueless pawns overselling Democratic prospects, the GOP's superior GOTV operation (and let's be honest, their larger base) will swamp the Dems just as it did in 2002 and 2004.
So far, the strategy is playing out just as the GOP hopes, with lofty CW expectations of sweeping Democratic victories that are not supported by race-by-race polling. As the media becomes more confident of seismic Democratic momentum, I become less confident of it.
Republican strategists don't really believe they only have a one-in-ten chance of retaining the House. They're spinning a web in which the media, hungry for a story, artificially inflates Democrats' expectations, triggering overconfidence among Democratic voters, fear among Republican voters, and a sense of inevitability among independents. If it becomes a base election where the Democrats are cocky, the Republicans are scared, the independents are blase and disengaged, and the media are clueless pawns overselling Democratic prospects, the GOP's superior GOTV operation (and let's be honest, their larger base) will swamp the Dems just as it did in 2002 and 2004.
So far, the strategy is playing out just as the GOP hopes, with lofty CW expectations of sweeping Democratic victories that are not supported by race-by-race polling. As the media becomes more confident of seismic Democratic momentum, I become less confident of it.
posted by Mark at 5:17 PM
4 Comments:
I too am not buying into the media's spin.
sean, I'm pretty sure the Dems will gain seats in 2004. A new round of battleground district House polls was released today that gives us a reason to be optimistic. The fact that Republicans do not seem poised to use the best weapon in their arsenal, the immigration issue, also cuts to the Dems favor.
Nonetheless, there are some now-familiar themes that simply are not supported by the current numbers....the biggest being the giant blue tsunami in the northeast. Except for NY-24, I'm skeptical about any of those upstate New York districts changing parties. Ditto for the districts in New Hampshire and New Jersey that we're told are in play. I think we'll gain seats, but unless we get far more momentum than we have now, I doubt it will be 15 or more.
I and most of my friends do not believe the GOP will gain seats, though we've had to deal with a lot of trolls that did, including predicting losses for Democrats like Carper and Kennedy.
sean, having raised the bar so significantly in the last few weeks, anything less than a Democratic takeover of the House will be spun by Republicans, and by proxy the media, as a stunning defeat for Dems.
As for the national security issue, that's something that is impossible to predict. Who knows what the headlines may bring in the next eight weeks. Given that the GOP knows that its only hope of retaining power is exploiting security fears, I'm sure Rove has some ugly October surprise(s) up his sleeve that has the potential to shake up everything. Will the sheeple be enough to fall for it again? To be continued....
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