Last Call for the Senate: Final Prediction Time!
I'm making my final predictions for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, and gubernatorial elections this weekend. It's a week earlier than I planned, but my schedule should permit it easier this week than last. I'd consider it cheating to make predictions on the eve of the election because it would be far less challenging. Sure, things could come up that will render these predictions obsolete. In cases where there is a seismic shift and I'd be a fool to stand by my original predictions, I may decide to amend one of these decisions, but I assure you that those cases will be few and far between.
I'll make my final calls here, followed by a guess on the overall margin. I'll block out third-party noise as best as possible, except in the case of Connecticut where are there are sure to be three candidates polling above 5%. Without further adieu.....
Arizona--In the end, this won't be close. Republican Jon Kyl's position on immigration, the issue of the day in the state, is closer to the position of Arizona's electorate and he was rewarded with at least a partial victory with the looming construction of a fence on the border. Pederson's big money are likely to have been wasted. Final call: Kyl by 8.
California--Dianne Feinstein will win big, but turnout will most likely be low now that Schwarzenegger is pulling away in the gubernatorial race, leaving no competitive races with ability to boost turnout....and with the much-hyped "surge in Latino voters" failing to come to fruition once again. My previous prediction of Feinstein scoring more votes than colleague Barbara Boxer did two years ago (6.9 million...an all-time record for a Senate candidate) is unlikely to happen, but Feinstein will win by a larger margin among those who do vote. Her awful Republican hypocrite/challenger will make sure of that. Final call: Feinstein by 23.
Connecticut--Ned Lamont peaked a week before the August 8 primary and has been bumbling and stumbling ever since in his attempt to unseat Joe Lieberman, who's running as an independent. Barring a major shift in momentum that I don't see coming at this point, Lieberman will win comfortably. Lamont's only hope is that Republican Alan Schlesinger impresses enough die-hard Republicans in upcoming debates that he takes away votes currently going for Lieberman. Seems like a longshot. My fear here is that Lieberman will stab the Democrats in the back after he wins. He might caucus with the Republicans. Or even worse, he might find himself drafted to replace Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense the day after the election, gladly and jubilantly accept, and then allow Connecticut's Republican Governor to appoint a GOP replacement, ultimately allowing the Republicans to hold the Senate. This is a premise Lamont should get out there just to give the remaining Lieberman Democrats some food for thought. Final call: Lieberman by 7.
Delaware--Not even sure who Democrat Tom Carper's opponent is. For a political junkie like myself to not even know a challenger's name 25 days before an election, the poor slob has a huge problem. Final call: Carper by 30.
Florida--Even though she's become the laughingstock of the Republican Senate candidates (no small feat this cycle), Harris will fare better on election night than the polls we've seen thus far suggest, showing incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson leading 2-1. Florida has simply become too Republican. With that said, she'll still lose....and lose big. She couldn't even manage more than a passing handshake for Bush, the man she helped elect, when he was in the state stumping for OTHER Republicans. Poor Katie! Final call: Bill Nelson by 14.
Hawaii--Liberal incumbent Democrat Daniel Akaka won the primary last month, and considering the GOP has yet to consolidate behind a candidate now that their original choice has dropped out, November 7 should be little more than a coronation for Akaka. The only wild card is if his primary opponent, conservative Democrat Ed Case, ends up running as a Republican, something he says he won't do but very easily could. If Case runs, Akaka will have a huge fight on his hands. For now, I'll take Case at his word and project that won't happen. Final call: Akaka by 43.
Indiana--Venerable and well-respected Republican incumbent Richard Lugar doesn't even have a Democratic opponent, which could help Democratic House candidates in the state by suppressing Republican turnout. But with only minor-party opposition, this is the easiest call in the country. Final call: Lugar by 77.
Maine--As ugly as conditions allegedly are for Republicans in the northeast, Maine's two-term Republican centrist Olympia Snowe is one of the most popular Senators in the country and will cruise to an easy re-election against lackluster Democratic opponent Jean Hay Bright. Final call: Snowe by 28.
Maryland--Favorable recent polls suggest Democrats can breathe a little easier about their candidate Ben Cardin besting his affable black opponent, Republican Michael Steele, but this is still a volatile situation shedding an unfavorable light on the racial and political divide that continues to exist in this country. A successful overture to the African-American community by Steele, or a gaffe by Cardin, could put this back into the toss-up category. For now though, it's hard to see how Steele can win unless he wins at least a third of blacks, which he's falling far short of right now. Nonetheless, Steele's non-traditional candidacy will make things interesting and give him some serious momentum in the 2008 Senate race if he loses. Final call: Cardin by 6.
Massachusetts--I finally heard a snippet from Ted Kennedy's Republican opponent this week (but still can't remember the guy's name). The guy was suggesting that Ted Kennedy was not doing enough to forward the cause of renewable energy....and that Massachusetts voters should vote for him, a member of the political party beholden to oil and gas interests that are suppressing the development of renewable energy. Huh? Final call: Kennedy by 43.
Michigan--The economy in Michigan is so depressed that there is still a chance of an upset here, but it's getting slimmer by the day. Michael Bouchard isn't a bad candidate for the Republicans, and his political base in Democrat-trending Oakland County will likely steal some votes away from Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, but I can't imagine it will be enough. Still, this will be closer than the polls currently suggest. Final call: Stabenow by 7.
Minnesota--Would-be GOP wunderkind Mark Kennedy is getting absolutely destroyed at every juncture of this campaign by Democratic challenger Amy Klobuchar to fill this open seat. Truth be told, I don't think there was any way Kennedy was gonna win in Minnesota in the current political climate, but his lackluster campaign seems to be turning this into a Democratic landslide. With that said, I'm guessing this race will get much closer because I know how liberals and Democrat-leaning centrists in Minnesota operate. When they think the Democrat has the election in the bag, they waste their vote on a third or fourth-party candidate to "teach the DFL a lesson" and end up making the race artificially close. I'd be surprised if minor-party candidates got anything less than 7% collectively in this race, taking away votes almost exclusively from Klobuchar. Final call: Klobuchar by 5.
Missouri--This is the toughest race in the country to handicap right now. The polls are outrageously close with the slimmest of momentum swinging back and forth from one candidate to the next. As strong of a candidate as McCaskill generally is, she's made a couple of bonehead comments that will be used against her in the month ahead. With the NRSC investing a third of its financial resources to save Republican incumbent Jim Talent's ass, I have a really bad feeling about this one. I've been bullish about McCaskill from the beginning, but I'm now expecting Talent will eke this one out. Final call: Talent by 2.
Montana--Republican Conrad Burns has been in a monthslong slugfest with Virginia Senator George Allen for the most gaffe-prone campaign in the country. Burns' comedy of errors, on top of his ties to Jack Abramoff which will be back in the headlines again now that Bob Ney has pled guilty in federal court, should be the knockout blow that strong Democratic challenger Jon Tester needs, particularly with Tester's ability to close the deal with a flourish. If any other Republican but Burns was in this race, the Montana Senate seat would stay in GOP hands. Final call: Tester by 8. (+1 for Dems)
Nebraska--There is little evidence thus far to back up my early claims that incumbent Democrat Ben Nelson's 20-point lead will vanish in the same way his previous 20-point leads have vanished in U.S. Senate runs. Republican challenger Pete Ricketts just doesn't seem to be having any luck in shooting holes in an incumbent who would be one of the weakest incumbents in the country any other year because of the blood-red Republicanism of his state. As it stands now, Nelson is poised to win comfortably, but I still suspect that fear of Democrats controlling the Senate will ultimately send some current Nelson leaners over to Ricketts. Final call: Nelson by 10.
Nevada--Polls have been erratic regarding the caliber of challenge being posed by Democrat Jack Carter (son of former President Jimmy) to Republican incumbent John Ensign. But with a weak organization, limited support from the Nevada Democratic Party (namely senior Senator Harry Reid), and Carter being taken out of commission briefly last month with collitis, I can't imagine Carter will be able to scale the giant wall in front of him in 25 days. Final call: Ensign by 13.
New Jersey--Even as I feared the worst with more corruption allegations surfacing two weeks ago against quasi-incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez, it appears his numbers are actually going up. Jersey voters almost always seem to break for Democrats, even when there's far less at stake than there is this year, so I was always cautiously optimistic that Menendez would best Tom Kean on election day. Kean could still win, but it's starting to look like he may have peaked in September. Final call: Menendez by 4.
New Mexico--Democratic incumbent and low-key wallflower Jeff Bingaman will easily beat his even more faceless Republican challenger. Final call: Bingaman by 18.
New York--My hope for a weak Hillary Clinton victory in 2006, ultimately leading to her losing momentum for her 2008 Presidential run, does not appear likely to happen as she is tossing around her weak, sleazy, and ethically-questionable GOP challenger John Spencer like a rag doll. Given the level of polarization that surrounds her, I doubt Hillary will pull off the kind of 3-1 landslide her colleague Chuck Schumer did in 2004, but 2-1 is definitely a likely target for her margin. Final call: Clinton by 31.
North Dakota--Republicans were buzzing 18 months ago at the prospect of knocking off popular Democratic incumbent Kent Conrad with just-as-popular Republican Governor John Hoeven, but Hoeven opted not to run and things have been all downhill for the GOP's prospects ever since, running an invisible candidate whose name I can't recall. Conrad is likely to score as big of a blowout as the 2-1 shellacking his colleague Byron Dorgan to his Republican tormentor in 2004. Final call: Conrad by 37.
Ohio--Democrat Sherrod Brown turned out to be a stronger candidate than I expected, and holds a lead in most recent polls over Republican incumbent Mike DeWine. After being teased by good polling data for John Kerry out of Ohio in October 2004, only to have my hopes crushed on election night, I continue to have a bad feeling about this race. The fact that the NRSC is investing a third of its overall resources into holding this seat really makes me expect a repeat of '04. Ultimately, I just don't think voters will opt to punish DeWine for the sins of other Ohio Republicans. I'd love to be wrong here, but I simply can't bring myself to believe that Brown's lead will hold. Final call: DeWine by 2.
Pennsylvania--As weak of a candidate that Democrat Bob Casey is, it appears that Republican incumbent Rick Santorum is so despised that Casey will be able to coast into a victory. It'll be closer than polls indicate, mainly because Casey is so lackluster, but Santorum's Senate career is nonetheless over. Final call: Casey by 5. (+2 for Dems)
Rhode Island--In the end, there really wasn't any way Lincoln Chafee was gonna win this year. Any other year, Chafee would have been comfortably re-elected even in deep-blue Rhode Island, but in 2006, with control of the Senate in the balance and a top-tier Democratic challenger in RI Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, it's really hard to see how Chafee can win....particularly now that the NRSC has apparently thrown him under the bus by directing all of its money into the Senate races in Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee. The most damning statistic for Chafee: one out of four Rhode Island Republicans don't plan to vote for him because he's so liberal. Can't see how he wins. Final call: Whitehouse by 4. (+3 for Dems)
Tennessee--The exuberance of Democrats regarding Harold Ford, Jr's successes are understandable. Nobody expected Ford would still be in the running at this stage, especially after Bob Corker, the Republican deemed most electable, won the primary. But despite Ford's brilliant campaign, all the GOP needs is to make one "liberal" spitball stick to him and he's finished in more-conservative-by-the-day Tennessee. With a month to go, one-third of the NRSC's bank account dedicated to taking Ford down, and the undeniable statistical accuracy of stealth racism hurting African-American candidates on election day, I suspect Democrats will be greatly disappointed with the results. Final call: Corker by 5.
Texas--Democratic challenger Barbara Radnofsky will be the latest casualty of a Texas politician with an (R) next to his/her name....in this case, popular incumbent Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Final call: Hutchison by 22.
Utah--Another slam-dunk hold for the GOP. Orrin Hatch will crush Democratic challenger Pete Ashdown in America's most Republican state. Final call: Hatch by 48.
Vermont--Socialist Bernie Sanders (I'm not kidding, he actually is a Socialist!), who will caucus with the Democrats, will handily win a Senate term in left-wing Vermont against GOP challenger Richard Tarrant. Final call: Sanders by 29.
Virginia--I had some hope for George Allen's numerous idiotic gaffes sinking him a month ago, but then his political opponents pushed too hard, regurgitating decades-old accusations of racial slurs that Allen reportedly broadcast when out of the public eye. Predictably, Allen benefitted from a sympathy vote and his polls numbers have bounced back to a modest lead. It's a shame because Democrat Jim Webb is a serious candidate capable of swamping Allen in a serious debate, as we all saw on "Meet the Press" last month. But at this point, Webb has lost his momentum through no fault of his own. Final call: Allen by 5.
Washington--Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell looked vulnerable a few months ago, but after stepping up her own re-election efforts as her Republican opponent lost his footing, she is now pretty safely positioned for a second Senate term. Final call: Cantwell by 10.
West Virginia--Democratic institution Robert Byrd seems to have dodged two bullets....the first being strong would-be GOP challenger Shelley Moore Capito, who ultimately opted not to run, and second, his own old age. Barring a health-related meltdown, Byrd is poised to win another easy re-election against lame GOP challenger John Raese. It'll be closer than last time, but Byrd will likely do better than I originally predicted in Republican-trending West Virginia. Final call: Byrd by 21.
Wisconsin--With former Governor and HHS Director Tommy Thompson choosing not to run (nobody seriously expected he would), low-key Democratic incumbent Herb Kohl will cruise to another easy re-election. Final call: Kohl by 26.
Wyoming--Another easy call. Incumbent Republican Craig Thomas scores an easy re-election against an invisible Democratic challenger. I gotta say, however, that I don't think I've ever heard, seen, or read anything about Thomas or his colleague Mike Enzi at any point during their lengthy tenures in the United States Senate. Apparently, they don't reach out to an audience beyond Wyoming. Final call: Thomas by 44.
There you have it. I'm sure my Democratic readers will be disappointed that my two most controversial calls went to the Republicans. Missouri and Ohio are definitely the weakest links in my predictions, and both could easily go to the Democrats. Right now, however, I'm calling only PA, RI, and MT as Democratic pick-ups, resulting in a Senate that consists of 52 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 independents (hopefully, both caucusing with the Dems). I'll be happy to eat crow if Talent or DeWine bite the dust on election night, though, and both can clearly go either way right now.
I'll make my final calls here, followed by a guess on the overall margin. I'll block out third-party noise as best as possible, except in the case of Connecticut where are there are sure to be three candidates polling above 5%. Without further adieu.....
Arizona--In the end, this won't be close. Republican Jon Kyl's position on immigration, the issue of the day in the state, is closer to the position of Arizona's electorate and he was rewarded with at least a partial victory with the looming construction of a fence on the border. Pederson's big money are likely to have been wasted. Final call: Kyl by 8.
California--Dianne Feinstein will win big, but turnout will most likely be low now that Schwarzenegger is pulling away in the gubernatorial race, leaving no competitive races with ability to boost turnout....and with the much-hyped "surge in Latino voters" failing to come to fruition once again. My previous prediction of Feinstein scoring more votes than colleague Barbara Boxer did two years ago (6.9 million...an all-time record for a Senate candidate) is unlikely to happen, but Feinstein will win by a larger margin among those who do vote. Her awful Republican hypocrite/challenger will make sure of that. Final call: Feinstein by 23.
Connecticut--Ned Lamont peaked a week before the August 8 primary and has been bumbling and stumbling ever since in his attempt to unseat Joe Lieberman, who's running as an independent. Barring a major shift in momentum that I don't see coming at this point, Lieberman will win comfortably. Lamont's only hope is that Republican Alan Schlesinger impresses enough die-hard Republicans in upcoming debates that he takes away votes currently going for Lieberman. Seems like a longshot. My fear here is that Lieberman will stab the Democrats in the back after he wins. He might caucus with the Republicans. Or even worse, he might find himself drafted to replace Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense the day after the election, gladly and jubilantly accept, and then allow Connecticut's Republican Governor to appoint a GOP replacement, ultimately allowing the Republicans to hold the Senate. This is a premise Lamont should get out there just to give the remaining Lieberman Democrats some food for thought. Final call: Lieberman by 7.
Delaware--Not even sure who Democrat Tom Carper's opponent is. For a political junkie like myself to not even know a challenger's name 25 days before an election, the poor slob has a huge problem. Final call: Carper by 30.
Florida--Even though she's become the laughingstock of the Republican Senate candidates (no small feat this cycle), Harris will fare better on election night than the polls we've seen thus far suggest, showing incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson leading 2-1. Florida has simply become too Republican. With that said, she'll still lose....and lose big. She couldn't even manage more than a passing handshake for Bush, the man she helped elect, when he was in the state stumping for OTHER Republicans. Poor Katie! Final call: Bill Nelson by 14.
Hawaii--Liberal incumbent Democrat Daniel Akaka won the primary last month, and considering the GOP has yet to consolidate behind a candidate now that their original choice has dropped out, November 7 should be little more than a coronation for Akaka. The only wild card is if his primary opponent, conservative Democrat Ed Case, ends up running as a Republican, something he says he won't do but very easily could. If Case runs, Akaka will have a huge fight on his hands. For now, I'll take Case at his word and project that won't happen. Final call: Akaka by 43.
Indiana--Venerable and well-respected Republican incumbent Richard Lugar doesn't even have a Democratic opponent, which could help Democratic House candidates in the state by suppressing Republican turnout. But with only minor-party opposition, this is the easiest call in the country. Final call: Lugar by 77.
Maine--As ugly as conditions allegedly are for Republicans in the northeast, Maine's two-term Republican centrist Olympia Snowe is one of the most popular Senators in the country and will cruise to an easy re-election against lackluster Democratic opponent Jean Hay Bright. Final call: Snowe by 28.
Maryland--Favorable recent polls suggest Democrats can breathe a little easier about their candidate Ben Cardin besting his affable black opponent, Republican Michael Steele, but this is still a volatile situation shedding an unfavorable light on the racial and political divide that continues to exist in this country. A successful overture to the African-American community by Steele, or a gaffe by Cardin, could put this back into the toss-up category. For now though, it's hard to see how Steele can win unless he wins at least a third of blacks, which he's falling far short of right now. Nonetheless, Steele's non-traditional candidacy will make things interesting and give him some serious momentum in the 2008 Senate race if he loses. Final call: Cardin by 6.
Massachusetts--I finally heard a snippet from Ted Kennedy's Republican opponent this week (but still can't remember the guy's name). The guy was suggesting that Ted Kennedy was not doing enough to forward the cause of renewable energy....and that Massachusetts voters should vote for him, a member of the political party beholden to oil and gas interests that are suppressing the development of renewable energy. Huh? Final call: Kennedy by 43.
Michigan--The economy in Michigan is so depressed that there is still a chance of an upset here, but it's getting slimmer by the day. Michael Bouchard isn't a bad candidate for the Republicans, and his political base in Democrat-trending Oakland County will likely steal some votes away from Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, but I can't imagine it will be enough. Still, this will be closer than the polls currently suggest. Final call: Stabenow by 7.
Minnesota--Would-be GOP wunderkind Mark Kennedy is getting absolutely destroyed at every juncture of this campaign by Democratic challenger Amy Klobuchar to fill this open seat. Truth be told, I don't think there was any way Kennedy was gonna win in Minnesota in the current political climate, but his lackluster campaign seems to be turning this into a Democratic landslide. With that said, I'm guessing this race will get much closer because I know how liberals and Democrat-leaning centrists in Minnesota operate. When they think the Democrat has the election in the bag, they waste their vote on a third or fourth-party candidate to "teach the DFL a lesson" and end up making the race artificially close. I'd be surprised if minor-party candidates got anything less than 7% collectively in this race, taking away votes almost exclusively from Klobuchar. Final call: Klobuchar by 5.
Missouri--This is the toughest race in the country to handicap right now. The polls are outrageously close with the slimmest of momentum swinging back and forth from one candidate to the next. As strong of a candidate as McCaskill generally is, she's made a couple of bonehead comments that will be used against her in the month ahead. With the NRSC investing a third of its financial resources to save Republican incumbent Jim Talent's ass, I have a really bad feeling about this one. I've been bullish about McCaskill from the beginning, but I'm now expecting Talent will eke this one out. Final call: Talent by 2.
Montana--Republican Conrad Burns has been in a monthslong slugfest with Virginia Senator George Allen for the most gaffe-prone campaign in the country. Burns' comedy of errors, on top of his ties to Jack Abramoff which will be back in the headlines again now that Bob Ney has pled guilty in federal court, should be the knockout blow that strong Democratic challenger Jon Tester needs, particularly with Tester's ability to close the deal with a flourish. If any other Republican but Burns was in this race, the Montana Senate seat would stay in GOP hands. Final call: Tester by 8. (+1 for Dems)
Nebraska--There is little evidence thus far to back up my early claims that incumbent Democrat Ben Nelson's 20-point lead will vanish in the same way his previous 20-point leads have vanished in U.S. Senate runs. Republican challenger Pete Ricketts just doesn't seem to be having any luck in shooting holes in an incumbent who would be one of the weakest incumbents in the country any other year because of the blood-red Republicanism of his state. As it stands now, Nelson is poised to win comfortably, but I still suspect that fear of Democrats controlling the Senate will ultimately send some current Nelson leaners over to Ricketts. Final call: Nelson by 10.
Nevada--Polls have been erratic regarding the caliber of challenge being posed by Democrat Jack Carter (son of former President Jimmy) to Republican incumbent John Ensign. But with a weak organization, limited support from the Nevada Democratic Party (namely senior Senator Harry Reid), and Carter being taken out of commission briefly last month with collitis, I can't imagine Carter will be able to scale the giant wall in front of him in 25 days. Final call: Ensign by 13.
New Jersey--Even as I feared the worst with more corruption allegations surfacing two weeks ago against quasi-incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez, it appears his numbers are actually going up. Jersey voters almost always seem to break for Democrats, even when there's far less at stake than there is this year, so I was always cautiously optimistic that Menendez would best Tom Kean on election day. Kean could still win, but it's starting to look like he may have peaked in September. Final call: Menendez by 4.
New Mexico--Democratic incumbent and low-key wallflower Jeff Bingaman will easily beat his even more faceless Republican challenger. Final call: Bingaman by 18.
New York--My hope for a weak Hillary Clinton victory in 2006, ultimately leading to her losing momentum for her 2008 Presidential run, does not appear likely to happen as she is tossing around her weak, sleazy, and ethically-questionable GOP challenger John Spencer like a rag doll. Given the level of polarization that surrounds her, I doubt Hillary will pull off the kind of 3-1 landslide her colleague Chuck Schumer did in 2004, but 2-1 is definitely a likely target for her margin. Final call: Clinton by 31.
North Dakota--Republicans were buzzing 18 months ago at the prospect of knocking off popular Democratic incumbent Kent Conrad with just-as-popular Republican Governor John Hoeven, but Hoeven opted not to run and things have been all downhill for the GOP's prospects ever since, running an invisible candidate whose name I can't recall. Conrad is likely to score as big of a blowout as the 2-1 shellacking his colleague Byron Dorgan to his Republican tormentor in 2004. Final call: Conrad by 37.
Ohio--Democrat Sherrod Brown turned out to be a stronger candidate than I expected, and holds a lead in most recent polls over Republican incumbent Mike DeWine. After being teased by good polling data for John Kerry out of Ohio in October 2004, only to have my hopes crushed on election night, I continue to have a bad feeling about this race. The fact that the NRSC is investing a third of its overall resources into holding this seat really makes me expect a repeat of '04. Ultimately, I just don't think voters will opt to punish DeWine for the sins of other Ohio Republicans. I'd love to be wrong here, but I simply can't bring myself to believe that Brown's lead will hold. Final call: DeWine by 2.
Pennsylvania--As weak of a candidate that Democrat Bob Casey is, it appears that Republican incumbent Rick Santorum is so despised that Casey will be able to coast into a victory. It'll be closer than polls indicate, mainly because Casey is so lackluster, but Santorum's Senate career is nonetheless over. Final call: Casey by 5. (+2 for Dems)
Rhode Island--In the end, there really wasn't any way Lincoln Chafee was gonna win this year. Any other year, Chafee would have been comfortably re-elected even in deep-blue Rhode Island, but in 2006, with control of the Senate in the balance and a top-tier Democratic challenger in RI Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, it's really hard to see how Chafee can win....particularly now that the NRSC has apparently thrown him under the bus by directing all of its money into the Senate races in Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee. The most damning statistic for Chafee: one out of four Rhode Island Republicans don't plan to vote for him because he's so liberal. Can't see how he wins. Final call: Whitehouse by 4. (+3 for Dems)
Tennessee--The exuberance of Democrats regarding Harold Ford, Jr's successes are understandable. Nobody expected Ford would still be in the running at this stage, especially after Bob Corker, the Republican deemed most electable, won the primary. But despite Ford's brilliant campaign, all the GOP needs is to make one "liberal" spitball stick to him and he's finished in more-conservative-by-the-day Tennessee. With a month to go, one-third of the NRSC's bank account dedicated to taking Ford down, and the undeniable statistical accuracy of stealth racism hurting African-American candidates on election day, I suspect Democrats will be greatly disappointed with the results. Final call: Corker by 5.
Texas--Democratic challenger Barbara Radnofsky will be the latest casualty of a Texas politician with an (R) next to his/her name....in this case, popular incumbent Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Final call: Hutchison by 22.
Utah--Another slam-dunk hold for the GOP. Orrin Hatch will crush Democratic challenger Pete Ashdown in America's most Republican state. Final call: Hatch by 48.
Vermont--Socialist Bernie Sanders (I'm not kidding, he actually is a Socialist!), who will caucus with the Democrats, will handily win a Senate term in left-wing Vermont against GOP challenger Richard Tarrant. Final call: Sanders by 29.
Virginia--I had some hope for George Allen's numerous idiotic gaffes sinking him a month ago, but then his political opponents pushed too hard, regurgitating decades-old accusations of racial slurs that Allen reportedly broadcast when out of the public eye. Predictably, Allen benefitted from a sympathy vote and his polls numbers have bounced back to a modest lead. It's a shame because Democrat Jim Webb is a serious candidate capable of swamping Allen in a serious debate, as we all saw on "Meet the Press" last month. But at this point, Webb has lost his momentum through no fault of his own. Final call: Allen by 5.
Washington--Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell looked vulnerable a few months ago, but after stepping up her own re-election efforts as her Republican opponent lost his footing, she is now pretty safely positioned for a second Senate term. Final call: Cantwell by 10.
West Virginia--Democratic institution Robert Byrd seems to have dodged two bullets....the first being strong would-be GOP challenger Shelley Moore Capito, who ultimately opted not to run, and second, his own old age. Barring a health-related meltdown, Byrd is poised to win another easy re-election against lame GOP challenger John Raese. It'll be closer than last time, but Byrd will likely do better than I originally predicted in Republican-trending West Virginia. Final call: Byrd by 21.
Wisconsin--With former Governor and HHS Director Tommy Thompson choosing not to run (nobody seriously expected he would), low-key Democratic incumbent Herb Kohl will cruise to another easy re-election. Final call: Kohl by 26.
Wyoming--Another easy call. Incumbent Republican Craig Thomas scores an easy re-election against an invisible Democratic challenger. I gotta say, however, that I don't think I've ever heard, seen, or read anything about Thomas or his colleague Mike Enzi at any point during their lengthy tenures in the United States Senate. Apparently, they don't reach out to an audience beyond Wyoming. Final call: Thomas by 44.
There you have it. I'm sure my Democratic readers will be disappointed that my two most controversial calls went to the Republicans. Missouri and Ohio are definitely the weakest links in my predictions, and both could easily go to the Democrats. Right now, however, I'm calling only PA, RI, and MT as Democratic pick-ups, resulting in a Senate that consists of 52 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 independents (hopefully, both caucusing with the Dems). I'll be happy to eat crow if Talent or DeWine bite the dust on election night, though, and both can clearly go either way right now.
posted by Mark at 7:41 PM
8 Comments:
Interesting predictions. I personally prefer to keep tracking the races until election eve so my predictions are as up-to-date as possible. I can't wait until the results come rolling in so we can compare results and see who's closer to the actual results. And having taken statistics last fall, I can make up a statistical model that compares each person's predictions with the actual results. I will also be doing this for Scott's (Election Projection) and Tom's (if he converts them to number predictions) as well as yours and mine. I can't wait to see who's closest to the actual results. Of course there are some predictions I don't agree with, but in these volatile political times, anyone could be right.
Here are my current predictions for the Senate:
Arizona - Kyl by 7.27%
California - Feinstein by 23%
Connecticut - Lieberman by 6.69%
Delaware - Carper by 20%
Florida - Nelson by 17.71%
Hawaii - Akaka by 22.84%
Indiana - Lugar by ~95%
Maine - Snowe by 52.45%
Maryland - Cardin by 10.54%
Massachusetts - Kennedy by 21.28%
Michigan - Stabenow by 14.37%
Minnesota - Klobuchar by 10.36%
Mississippi - Lott by 30.56%
Missouri - McCaskill by 3.31%
Montana - Tester by 5.8%
Nebraska - Nelson by 19.01%
Nevada - Ensign by 19.23%
New Jersey - Menendez by 5.83%
New Mexico - Bingaman by 30.99%
New York - Clinton by 30.34%
North Dakota - Conrad by 25.84%
Ohio - Brown by 8.69%
Pennsylvania - Casey by 10.25%
Rhode Island - Whitehouse by 8.94%
Tennessee - Ford by 1.68%
Texas - Hutchison by 24.16%
Vermont - Sanders by 27.75%
Virginia - Allen by 4.82%
Washington - Cantwell by 11.15%
West Virginia - Byrd by 24.95%
Wisconsin - Kohl by 25.31%
Wyoming - Thomas by 31.61%
According to my predictions, the Dems pick up 6 Republican seats but lose Connecticut if Lieberman doesn't caucus with them (he said he would, but it's hard to trust most politicians these days).
49 DEM, 49 GOP, 2 IND
I'll put my House and Governor predictions under your respective posts, but I will put my current projected makeup here:
House: Dems gain 24 for a 226-209 majority (of course that would be if the election were held today; I'm not getting too giddy here)
Governor: Dems gain 6 for a 28-22 majority
Sorry it took me so long to respond to these posts. If you've read my latest entry about my weekend date, you'll know I've had my share of bizarre distractions taking away from election blogging. My House predictions should be posted by mid-to-late afternoon, but I'm afraid my gubernatorial predictions will end up being delayed a few days.
Sean, on the surface, the 2008 Senate map looks pretty good, but if the Dems win the Senate this year, it may be less likely to be as productive as we're currently expecting. Susan Collins of Maine could potentially retire, giving us our best pick-up opportunity in the country. If John Warner retires and Mark Warner runs in Virginia, that'd be as close to a sure thing as there is. Mark Udall would be a very tough opponent for Wayne Allard or any Republican in Colorado. As horrific as she's been in the NRSC, I'm anticipating Liddy Dole will retire in 2008, creating an opening for the one electable Democrat in North Carolina, Governor Mike Easley. Hell, even Texas would be on the table if Chet Edwards were to run against Jon Cornyn.
I'm not optimistic about taking out John Sununu or Norm Coleman, however, and I'm almost certain that Mary Landrieu will be defeated in Louisiana. We'll also have to play defense in Delaware and Massachusetts, where Joe Biden and John Kerry will be moving forward with ill-fated Presidential runs. Favorable turf, but open seats are always a reason for concern. The likely retirement of Frank Lautenberg in New Jersey will also be a headache, particularly if Tom Kean narrowly loses to Bob Menendez this cycle.
Back to 2006, do you have any Senate predictions, Sean?
Sara, I like your Senate predictions better than mine. Do you believe you're right at the gut level, setting aside your formula for a moment? Just curious.
I sure hope we can take down John Coryrn... I bet Saxby Chambliss could be taken down, with a black democrat.. remember, Georgia has no problem electing minorities!! Two of its blacks represent white-majority districts, and they have 2 blacks I know of statewide. White Democrats have had bad luck in georgia lately.
I really can't see how Saxby Chambliss could be beaten in Georgia, with that state poised to get more Republican with each passing year due to the explosive growth of exurban Atlanta and its country club business Republicans reinforcing the growing ranks of rural bubbas. After becoming such a fierce advocate for national Democrats in recent years, I suspect Cleland would really get rolled by Chambliss if he tried for a rematch in '08.
jamespol, are there are black Democrats in Georgia who you believe would be able statewide in Georgia? Sanford Bishop maybe?
I think Graham would prevail against a Roy Moore-ish primary opponent in SC, but agree that Mike Castle has little chance of starting a Senate career this late in his life, health concerns and all.
The fact that South Dakota Republicans couldn't find a single prominent Republican to run against Stephanie Herseth this year doesn't bode well for their efforts to take out Tim Johnson in '08. Unless they pull a rabbit of a hat, Johnson's back in.
The only Democrat I could see beating Sununu in NH is Governor Lynch, but the first step would be convincing him to run. And I don't think Minnesota's apparent shift to the left will be permanent enough for Franken or any Democrat to take out Norm Coleman. Coleman is wildly popular in the affluent Twin Cities suburbs. They carried him in '02 and probably will again in '08.
sean, I think the days where Sam Nunn-style Democrats are electable in the Deep South are over. Perhaps we can sneak a Mark Pryor into the Senate in Arkansas and a Harold Ford, Jr. in Tennessee from time to time, but I'm afraid the only Democrat that could be elected to the Senate from Georgia these days is named Zell Miller, and I would argue he does far more harm than good as a member of our party.
I know that Inez Tenenbaum, Chris John, and Brad Carson were all pretty darn conservative in their respective races, but still got beaten because of the national Democratic stigma in the South. While we can't necessarily give up on this part of the country (the Deep South that is, not necessarily NC, AR, and TN), allocating the bulk of our resources to every other region of the country is probably wise until there's some sort of cultural realignment.
I'm not sure about Shaheen's level of popularity in New Hampshire, but has she been politically visible at all since 2002?
As a native Minnesotan, I knew Coleman would win a couple of days after the Wellstone Memorial turned into a partisan foot stomp. Honestly, I think Coleman may have beaten Wellstone had he lived too. Minnesota was not in a Democratic mood in 2002. The suburbs, which nowadays drive Minnesota elections almost exclusively, were pro-Bush and anti-tax in '02.
The poll showing Mondale up by 5 was from the Minneapolis Star Tribune, which favors Democrats by significant margins almost every cycle. The St. Paul Pioneer Press poll, which leans Republican, was taken the same weekend showed Coleman winning by 5. It proved closer to being right that year. The Dems were wise not to contest those results. Mondale got swamped in the yuppie suburbs, places where Mondale was but a historical footnote to the youthful voters who live there and voted overwhelmingly Coleman.
sean, the black population in the Deep South is all that's keeping those states from being more Republican than Utah. In Mississippi, for instance, 95% of blacks voted Kerry and 85% of whites voted Bush. Bush got 80% of the white vote in Alabama, slightly less than 80% in South Carolina, and well over 70% in both Georgia and Louisiana. Even when Democrats win in the Deep South, as Don Siegelman did in the 1998 Alabama gubernatorial race, they get beaten by 2-1 margins or wider among whites.
The national Democratic Party is too liberal for the Deep South. Democrats are competitive at the state level in the region because candidates from both parties are almost equally conservative. If you really want a scare, track some of the radical wingnut legislation being sponsored by Democrats and Republicans in that statehouses of places like Alabama (criminalizing dildos and low-slung pants come to mind). As I said, there will have to be a complete cultural transformation of the region before Democrats can legitimately compete there.
I have been talking with fellow Californians on our future Senate races. Boxer will probably retire when her term finishes in 2010 (she will be about 70) and DiFi will most likely retire when her term (which she will win in a landslide this year) ends in 2012 (she will be close to 80). We are scared about the prospect of Arnold running for the Senate in 2010 since he will be term-limited as governor at that time. But at least we will most likely have a whole bench of strong Dems to run for governor or Senate in 2010/12: Villaraigosa (L.A. mayor), Newsom (San Fran mayor), Nunez (Assembly Speaker), and Delgadillo (L.A. City Attorney).
Save for Arnold, the Repubs don't have much of a bench in California, and Arnold's move to the left only weakens the party, since the message Arnold is sending is that the progressive way is the only way that works in California. The only Repub that can win statewide in California is a Repub that becomes a Dem.
And I too hope that the Dems take the populist route when they take control of Congress.
Oh. Yes, I feel that my predictions are fairly close to how I feel about our prospects in the Senate. I will keep adjusting my predictions with each new poll until 11:59 PM Central Standard Time November 6, 2006.
24 hours later, I will be back here in my apartment in Denton, Texas, anxiously awaiting the results of the critical races in California, Texas, and across the country.
Post a Comment
<< Home