Amended September GOP Asshat of the Month
Who could have expected that when I wrote my monthly GOP asshat of the month feature on Thursday evening, September 28, in advance of the weekend, that a new GOP asshat would emerge in the final 36 hours of the month to snatch the title? Particularly when the current title went to convicted felon Bob Ney? Who could possibly be a bigger Republican asshat than Bob Ney, you ask?
Enter Mark Foley, Congressman from Florida, who for some odd reason, was always brushed off last year by the Republican party apparatus when recommended by Washington outsiders as a great Republican Senate candidate to run against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. Foley is turns out wasn't caught with a dead woman or a live boy, but rather several live boys. He resigned within hours after the scandal surfaced, something that happens so rarely that everybody knew this scandal had to be huge and undeniable. Foley's political career may be over, but look on the bright side. He still may have a future in the Catholic church.
Given that Foley's name will have to remain on the Florida ballot even if a replacement Republican candidate is decided upon, his resignation has all but ceded this contest to Democratic challenger Tim Mahoney (counting this and DeLay's vacated seat, it's already two down and 13 to go for the Democrats). However, FL-16 is the least of the Republicans' worries now that the breadth of this scandal is being realized. It turns out every member of the Republican House leadership has known about Foley's obsession with teenage pages for years, particularly those pages with "out-ies, not in-ies". One of these Republican leaders that knew of Foley's likely pedophilia, Tom Reynolds of upstate New York, is already in a tougher-than-expected re-election bid. But the real consequences are more likely to be felt in the battleground districts, which would probably all tip to the Democrats if the election were held on October 7 instead of November 7, based almost exclusively on this scandal.
Expect more October surprises and the political conversation to be changed in the next five weeks, but it's unlikely this story will completely go away in such a short span of time. "Pagegate" could turn out to be the scandal that Jack Abramoff was supposed to be. Swing voters understand and care about scandals relating to Internet pedophiles preying on teenagers, whereas they don't understand or care about scandals relating to complicated bribery or redistricting schemes. A Republican party that most horse race analysts, myself included, expected to hold onto the House of Representatives in November may have finally displayed a level of arrogance that voters will be unwilling to reward.
Enter Mark Foley, Congressman from Florida, who for some odd reason, was always brushed off last year by the Republican party apparatus when recommended by Washington outsiders as a great Republican Senate candidate to run against incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson. Foley is turns out wasn't caught with a dead woman or a live boy, but rather several live boys. He resigned within hours after the scandal surfaced, something that happens so rarely that everybody knew this scandal had to be huge and undeniable. Foley's political career may be over, but look on the bright side. He still may have a future in the Catholic church.
Given that Foley's name will have to remain on the Florida ballot even if a replacement Republican candidate is decided upon, his resignation has all but ceded this contest to Democratic challenger Tim Mahoney (counting this and DeLay's vacated seat, it's already two down and 13 to go for the Democrats). However, FL-16 is the least of the Republicans' worries now that the breadth of this scandal is being realized. It turns out every member of the Republican House leadership has known about Foley's obsession with teenage pages for years, particularly those pages with "out-ies, not in-ies". One of these Republican leaders that knew of Foley's likely pedophilia, Tom Reynolds of upstate New York, is already in a tougher-than-expected re-election bid. But the real consequences are more likely to be felt in the battleground districts, which would probably all tip to the Democrats if the election were held on October 7 instead of November 7, based almost exclusively on this scandal.
Expect more October surprises and the political conversation to be changed in the next five weeks, but it's unlikely this story will completely go away in such a short span of time. "Pagegate" could turn out to be the scandal that Jack Abramoff was supposed to be. Swing voters understand and care about scandals relating to Internet pedophiles preying on teenagers, whereas they don't understand or care about scandals relating to complicated bribery or redistricting schemes. A Republican party that most horse race analysts, myself included, expected to hold onto the House of Representatives in November may have finally displayed a level of arrogance that voters will be unwilling to reward.
posted by Mark at 9:48 PM
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