Reevaluating Sherrod Brown
Ever since the day Paul Hackett dropped out of the Ohio Senate race, I've been bearish about liberal Congressman Sherrod Brown's chances against moderate Republican incumbent Mike DeWine, despite DeWine's undeniable vulnerability in virtually every poll taken in the past year. An outstanding article by John Nichols in "The Nation" last week helped lift my spirits that perhaps Brown is the real deal after all. http://www.thenation.com/docprint.mhtml?i=20061002&s=nichols2
The article talks about Brown's willingness to campaign in strongly Republican areas of the state that should be solidly aligned with the Democrats from a demographic standpoint (one specific location listed was the blue-collar town of Lima in western Ohio). By concentrating on economic issues, Brown's specialty, he's able to reach many of these voters who habitually vote for Republicans because of social wedge issues that always seem to be top on voters minds when they head to the polls.
As uplifting as the article was, I still have a hard time believing the "proud liberal" Brown won't be demagogued right out of his lead in the polls after Karl Rove gets done sliming him. "God, guns, gays, and gynecology" seem certain to be pushed back onto the campaign frontburner no matter how hard Brown tries to talk about jobs. Still, a campaign that I had long thought was a mess seems to be pretty damn competent. The fact that Brown continues to lead in nearly every poll seven weeks before the election is a strong testimonial that he's doing something right. Let's just hope Brown's 5-6 point lead doesn't go the way of Kerry's similar margin in Ohio a month before the 2004 election.
The article talks about Brown's willingness to campaign in strongly Republican areas of the state that should be solidly aligned with the Democrats from a demographic standpoint (one specific location listed was the blue-collar town of Lima in western Ohio). By concentrating on economic issues, Brown's specialty, he's able to reach many of these voters who habitually vote for Republicans because of social wedge issues that always seem to be top on voters minds when they head to the polls.
As uplifting as the article was, I still have a hard time believing the "proud liberal" Brown won't be demagogued right out of his lead in the polls after Karl Rove gets done sliming him. "God, guns, gays, and gynecology" seem certain to be pushed back onto the campaign frontburner no matter how hard Brown tries to talk about jobs. Still, a campaign that I had long thought was a mess seems to be pretty damn competent. The fact that Brown continues to lead in nearly every poll seven weeks before the election is a strong testimonial that he's doing something right. Let's just hope Brown's 5-6 point lead doesn't go the way of Kerry's similar margin in Ohio a month before the 2004 election.
posted by Mark at 10:27 PM
6 Comments:
I hope so too. I am optimistic, though, on the grounds that Ohioans are angrier at Bush now than two years ago, there's no gay marriage amendment on the ballot, the extreme disgust at the state GOP, and with Strickland almost guaranteed to win big, providing some coattails especially in southeastern Ohio, I like Brown's chances better than I liked Kerry's 2 years ago.
Scott at Election Projection has also called Ohio Senate for Brown, and ironically, he sees DeWine as more vulnerable than Santorum and Chafee! (Because the state GOP is in horrendous shape he is not well liked by the left, and he is not well liked by the right for being moderate.)
DeWine shouldn't be vulnerable. He's a center-right Republican from a center-right state running against an unapologetic liberal. That's not a natural formula for an incumbent defeat. In no way do I see DeWine as MORE vulnerable than either Rick Santorum (hard-right conservative running against a centrist in a blue state) or Lincoln Chafee (Republican running against a top-tier challenger in a state bluer than the Atlantic Ocean it borders).
With that said, Brown has held a lead long enough for me to take him seriously. After predicting a Kerry victory in Ohio in 2004, perhaps I've been pessimistic about Brown because of getting burned last time. Nonetheless, I'm with you at this point that Brown's chances in Ohio are at least as good as Kerry's were two years ago, and perhaps slightly better.
sean, now that Cardin has won the primary, I'm not too worried about Maryland. It'll be closer than it should be as an uncomfortable number of African-Americans, particularly in the wealthy suburbs of Prince George's County, can be expected to vote for Steele. Unless Cardin completely melts down in the next six weeks, I can't imagine him being defeated by Steele in a year like this in a state like Maryland. Survey USA is usually pretty reliable, but even their state-by-state approval ratings for Bush fluctuate pretty wildly month-to-month sometimes....too wildly to be believed. Given that another Maryland poll this week showed Cardin leading by seven, I'm not nearly as worried about Maryland as I am about New Jersey right now.
Menendez has turned out to be an atrocious choice as Corzine's successor as the stench of Jersey City corruption clings to his suit coat and the voters can smell it. Corzine was between a rock and a hard place in that he was being pressured to choose a minority to fill out his term and run for the open seat in 2006, but everyone in New Jersey had to be aware of the baggage that naturally goes along with any politician who successfully works his/her way up the Hudson County Democratic machine. With seven weeks before the election, that baggage is starting to surface. If they have to cut Menendez loose and replace with Richard Codey before September 30, I hope they do. Hopefully, some polls surface in the next 10 days indicating whether that drastic measure has to happen. They may not be able to get away with it again if they want to. I'm still under the belief that unless more dirt is dug up on Menendez, he'll be able to win in the current political environment just by connecting Kean to Bush, but I wouldn't put $1,000 bet on that prediction anymore.
As for Minnesota, I looked all over cable for that Minnesota Senate debate last night. My parents were able to watch it, but I didn't hear their take on the matter. I'm not surprised that Klobuchar filleted Kennedy. She tossed him around like a rag doll at the Minnesota State Fair the last time they debated too. The Star Tribune's 24-point poll advantage for Klobuchar is bunk, but this race, once thought to be among the most competitive in the country, is turning out to be a shocking landslide. The Republican apparatus and mainstream media apparently had no idea how strong of a candidate Klobuchar was last year at this time or even three months ago for that matter.
I just got my own new site and will be moving the contents of my sites "Blue In Texas" and "Texas for Richardson" there. I should have the new site completed by early October. All three sites will be up for the 2006 election season, and the two Blogger sites will be shut down sometime before Christmas.
http://californianintexas.us
One quick comment on the governorships. Yes, they may seem like just "decoration" at face value, but they mean a lot more for Bill Richardson, chair of the Democratic Governors Association, and his supporters including myself. If in addition to winning a second term himself by 20-30% Richardson manages to see the Dems clinch at least a majority of governorships (having a 30-20 domination would be even better) then that will REALLY give him momentum for 2008... possibly enough to be formidable against Hillary Clinton. Delivering NM-1 to the good guys can't hurt either.
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