Will Voters Help Nancy Pelosi "Drain the Swamp" in the House?
Everybody from Charlie Cook to Sean Hannity has publicly declared this past week that the Democrats are poised to take back the House of Representatives on November 7. Cook, the most respected horserace analyst in the business, has gone so far to predict a "Category 5 storm" rushing to the shores of the Republican-controlled body, mired in scandal and low public approval ratings. Of course, everybody prefaces these bold predictions with the addendum that "any number of things can change between now and Election Day that would shift the momentum back to the Republicans." Most expect that to be the case, but still question whether the GOP has any chance of preserving control of the House having already all but ceded three otherwise safely Republican seats to the Democrats.
Here's my take on how things will unfold, with brief analysis of every race that is even on the radar screen of competitiveness....
Arizona, District 1--Modestly popular Republican incumbent Rick Renzi was considered a safe bet for re-election in his swing district in the state's rural northeast side entailing several of Arizona's vast Indian reservations....until the last couple of weeks that is. Democratic challenger Ellen Simon held a small lead in a recent poll. I don't know much in the way of specifics about this race since it's been beneath just about everybody's radar screen, but the poll strikes me at the gut level as overly optimistic for Simon. If Renzi were to be defeated, it would easily be on the biggest upsets of the evening, but I'm still expecting Renzi to pull this out, albeit by a smaller margin than he defeated Paul Babbitt in 2004. Prediction: Renzi by 6.
Arizona, District 5--Harry Mitchell, the popular Democratic Mayor of Tempe, is putting up a spirited campaign against hard-core Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth in this GOP-leaning district in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix, but every poll shows Mitchell falling short. In the end, this seat will probably be viewed as too much for the Democrats to ask for even in a "tsunami" year. Prediction: Hayworth by 8.
Arizona, District 8--I've seen enough data at this point to trust the conventional wisdom that conservative GOP candidate Randy Graf is unelectable in this swing district on the Mexican border, even with his hard-line immigration position. The ethics controversy now facing retiring Republican Jim Kolbe regarding the Mark Foley page scandal is only likely to add to the momentum of the attractive centrist Democrat Gabrielle Giffords. The NRCC gave up on this seat after Graf won the primary, and it looks to be perhaps the best pickup opportunity in the country for Democrats. Prediction: Giffords by 12. (+1 for Dems)
California, District 4--Ties to the Abramoff scandal plague popular Republican incumbent John Doolittle in this strongly conservative rural district in northeastern California. Despite the cartoonish name, Doolittle faces a strong challenger this time in military Democrat Charlie Brown. Recent polling shows Doolittle holding a comfortable lead, but it's still possible this seat could swing to Brown. The guilty plea by fellow Abramoff conspirator Bob Ney this week certainly won't help Doolittle's cause. Still, I think he'll squeak by for another term. Prediction: Doolittle by 6.
California, District 11--Scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Richard Pombo is facing a stronger-than-expected challenge in his GOP-leaning agriculture-heavy district in central California from Democratic challenger Jerry McNerney. With a hotly-contested race at the top of the ticket in California, Pombo could be in some serious trouble, but the flameout of Phil Angelides in the gubernatorial race doesn't bode well for the kind of Democratic turnout needed to unseat Pombo. In the end, I suspect Pombo wins, albeit by his narrowest margin in years. Prediction: Pombo by 5.
California, District 50--If Democrat Francine Busby couldn't beat Republican Brian Bilbray in a summer special election with the entire apparatus of the Democratic Party at her disposal and a GOP predecessor serving a prison term for his corruption scandal, she has no chance at all to win in November with the party over her no help and Bilbray with the advantage of incumbency in a solidly GOP district full of country club Republicans. Prediction: Bilbray by 13.
Colorado, District 3--Republicans had high hopes last year at this time of unseating freshman Democrat John Salazar in his Republican-leaning district (but leaning that way less so with each passing election cycle) in western Colorado ski country. No polls thus far have shown Republican challenger Scott Tipton within striking distance. The fact that national Republicans seem to have all but written Tipton off, it's very likely Salazar could win by a wider margin than was even expected. Prediction: Salazar by 12.
Colorado, District 4--Far-right Republican ideologue Marilyn Musgrave had a bit of a scare in 2004 when she won a second term by an extremely modest margin in this conservative ranch district in eastern Colorado. This year, Musgrave faces a potentially stiffer challenge from Democratic state legislator Angie Paccionne. Musgrave could suffer from the counter-coattails of the Colorado gubernatorial race, which is looking more and more like a blowout for the Democrats. Sooner or later, demographic shifts to the northern Denver suburbs/exurbs will make this district ripe for Democratic competitiveness, but I don't think we're there yet. Paccionne is within striking distance in the polls, but I'm betting she won't be able to seal the deal due to the partisan disadvantage she faces. Prediction: Musgrave by 4.
Colorado, District 5--Democrats are as giddy as school girls about the competitiveness of their strong candidate, military veteran Jay Fawcett, in this open seat in Colorado's most conservative district. Controversial Republican Doug Lamborn is generating plenty of bad mojo in his party, including that of retiring incumbent Joel Hefley, who hates Lamborn so much that he actually mulled a third-party run against him. Indeed, polls show Lamborn and Fawcett locked in a dead heat with more than a quarter of voters undecided. But let's get real....this is James Dobson country and the home of conservative Peterson A.F.B. Boosting Fawcett from a 37% poll showing to the 50% he'll need to win will be nearly impossible in a district that's more than 2-1 Republican. It'll be a hollow victory, but Lamborn will pull it out fairly comfortably in the end. Prediction: Lamborn by 13.
Colorado, District 7--Polls have been erratic in this Democratic-leaning district in the western suburbs of Denver, being vacated by retiring Republican Bob Beauprez. Conventional wisdom is that Democrat Ed Perlmutter is running ahead of GOP challenger Rick O'Donnell, but I'm not convinced it's a slam dunk at this point. Nonetheless, I'll go with Perlmutter to win a seat long-considered one of the Democrats' best pick-up opportunities in the country. Prediction: Perlmutter by 4. (+2 for Dems)
Connecticut, District 2--The bluest district in the country held by a Republican in the House, Connecticut's rural east side faces the choice of their moderate GOP incumbent, Rob Simmons, or his challenger, Democrat Joe Courtney. Any other year, Simmons would win in a walk, and there's still the chance that he may this year. Once seen as a must-win for the Democrats to win the House, the map has opened up a bit and put several other seats in play, reducing the need for the Dems to unseat Simmons. They may need that as polls are conflicting as to how much trouble Simmons is in. Nonetheless, I'm sensing a furious "blue" tide in the northeast that will likely wash away Simmons, but narrowly. Prediction: Courtney by 2. (+3 for Dems)
Connecticut, District 4--Moderate Republican Christopher Shays seems to be in more imminent danger than Simmons in his affluent southwestern Connecticut district. Shays remains personally popular in the area, but war-weary voters in the region who came within four points of turning Shays out in 2004 against photogenic then-and-now challenger Diane Farrell seems poised to finish the job in 2006, barring a gaffe by Farrell. Polling data has been inconclusive, but Shays' desperation seems evident with every public statement he makes, particularly his attempt to resurrect Ted Kennedy's 40-year-old scandal and deflect accountability away from GOP Congressional leaders over Mark Foley. Prediction: Farrell by 4. (+4 for Dems)
Connecticut, District 5--I'm not optimistic about the Democrats getting the royal flush in Connecticut because I expect long-time incumbent Nancy Johnson to prevail over Iraq war vet Chris Murphy in her northwestern Connecticut district, which is the palest shade of blue of the state's five districts. Murphy's within striking distance and is likely to give Johnson a run for her money, but I don't see him sealing the deal. Prediction: Johnson by 4.
Florida, District 9--This Republican-leaning district in the northwestern exurbs of Tampa-St. Petersburg is only nominally a battleground district, and only because it's an open seat with a GOP candidate vulnerable to charges of nepotism. Republican Gus Bilirakis, son of retiring Congressman Michael, nonetheless seems poised to score an easy victory against Democratic rival Phyllis Busansky. Prediction: Bilirakis by 11.
Florida, District 13--One of the biggest surprises in the country in the last month is the strength of Democratic nominee Christine Jennings in this heavily GOP district in southwestern Florida, currently represented by Katherine Harris. I was one of the few who mentioned it as a potential battleground last year at this time, and it appears my instinct was right as she now has a modest lead in the polls against GOP challenger Vern Buchanan. I'm extremely hesitant to call this race for Jennings given the strong Republican tilt of the district, but the anecdotal evidence is getting harder to ignore and I suspect Jennings will squeak it out. Prediction: Jennings by 1. (+5 for Dems).
Florida, District 16--It seems like a lifetime ago at this point, but it's only been 15 days since the safe GOP-held Congressional district in the West Palm Beach area was thrown on its head with the resignation of alleged child predator Mark Foley. Almost immediately, Republicans gave up on the prospect of hanging onto this seat and all but conceded it to Democratic challenger Tim Mahoney, seeing as how Foley will remain on the ballot and supporters of his replacement candidate would have to vote for the disgraced Foley to elect the replacement. A tall order to be sure, but the polls indicate that "Foley" stands to get a far better showing than the shellacking I originally predicted, even though this district isn't THAT Republican. The most recent poll shows Mahoney with a fairly soft (given the circumstances) seven-point advantage. In the end, I can't imagine voters being able to pull the lever for Foley once they get in the voting booth, but I also don't expect this seat will be the freebie Dems are expecting. Prediction: Mahoney by 6. (+6 for Dems)
Florida, District 22--Once considered the only battleground House race we were likely to see in Florida, I would now rank the faceoff between long-time GOP incumbent Clay Shaw and strong Democratic challenger Ron Klein as only being the third most likely pick-up opportunity for Democrats in Florida. Despite this Gold Coast district's Democratic lean, bipartisan allegiance to Shaw does not seem to be wavering enough to unseat him. Prediction: Shaw by 5.
Georgia, District 8--A year ago at this time, Democrats were mightily concerned about the plight of conservative Democrat Jim Marshall, whose central Georgia district was gerrymandered to become even more Republican. Adding insult to injury, former GOP Congressman Mac Collins came out of retirement to challenge Marshall. I was the first to predict Marshall's day in Congress were over. Now it looks like he'll survive as every poll indicates Marshall holds a significant lead even in a district that voted for George Bush by 22 points two years ago. The threat of a Democratic takeover of the House will probably swing some voters over to Collins in the final weeks, but I still expect Marshall to hang on. Prediction: Marshall by 6.
Georgia, District 12--Democrat John Barrow also saw his eastern Georgia district become more Republican (or in the case of this Kerry-voting district, less Democratic) after a 2005 gerrymander. He also faces a re-match against a man he narrowly beat in 2004, Max Burns. For whatever reason, the conservative Burns has his share of loyalists in the region and it's hard to predict what kind of advantage Burns will have in the district's new territory. The lack of competitive statewide races in Georgia is likely to suppress black turnout, which could also hurt Barrow. I was more optimistic about this race early on, but now am predicting the narrowest of victories for the conservative Democrat Barrow. Prediction: Barrow by 1.
Idaho, District 1--No that's not a misprint. This district in northern Idaho which voted 69% Bush in 2004 is a true battleground in 2006, with Democrat Larry Grant benefitting mightily from the split in GOP ranks over controversial uber-conservative Republican candidate Bill Sali, who narrowly won a hotly-contested primary. Legislative colleagues routinely deride Sali and his opponents refuse to endorse him, giving Grant a credible chance of a wild upset (the most recent poll showed Sali leading by three points, within the margin of error). In the end, I think fear of a Democratic Congressional takeover will end up boosting Sali, but it's nonetheless a nightmare scenario for national Republicans to have to invest limited financial resources to hang onto an open House seat in frickin' Idaho. Prediction: Sali by 9.
Illinois, District 6--This affluent suburban Chicago district vacated by Henry Hyde has turned out to be every bit the hotly-contested battleground it was expected to be, pitting popular GOP legislator Peter Roskam against Iraq war veteran and double amputee Tammy Duckworth. There's little argument that Roskam is the better politician of the two, with Duckworth straddling the fence on a number of issues and generally trying to ride her way into office based on a sympathetic personal story the same way Patty Wetterling is doing in Minnesota. Nonetheless, Duckworth seems competent enough to hold her own and polls are showing a neck-and-neck slugfest. Ultimately, Duckworth's evasion of debates is likely to catch up with her, and hand Roskam a modest win in a seat he would have won by double-digits against an average Dem challenger. Prediction: Roskam by 3.
Illinois, District 8--The Chamber of Commerce's favorite Democrat, Melissa Bean, is considered one of the few highly vulnerable Democrats this cycle given the GOP's strong partisan advantage in this affluent, yuppie-populated district in Chicago's northern exurbs. Bean won by default in 2004 when she was running against the senile, alcoholic incumbent Phil Crane, but will have to earn her victory this time against a more competent challenger, David McSweeney. In the end, I suspect Bean's Democrat-ultralite profile will help her peel off enough Republican voters to narrowly win, but it'll still be close. On the first ugly year for Congressional Democrats post-2006, expect Bean to succumb to defeat, but it probably won't happen this time. Prediction: Bean by 3.
Illinois, District 10--Even though this district in the northern suburbs of Chicago went fairly comfortably for John Kerry in 2004, it doesn't seem likely to derail Republican incumbent Mark Kirk in 2006. Kirk has an affable and photogenic African-American opponent in Dan Seals (no, not the country singer), but Seals just can't seem to make any headway against Kirk. Prediction: Kirk by 8.
Illinois, District 17--The decision by long-time incumbent Democrat Lane Evans to retire from his Democratic-leaning blue-collar district centered around the Rock Island-Moline area opened up this seat to potential competitiveness. The Democrats eventually settled upon a candidate, whose name escapes me, that is expected to have an easy time of winning against Republican newswoman Andrea Zinga. Given that this district is by no means a sure bet for Democrats, I'm surprised Republicans didn't put more effort into helping Zinga, but at this point it seems almost certain that the seat will stay in Democratic hands. Prediction: (Democrat) by 8.
Indiana, District 2--Another huge surprise this cycle is the strength of the challenge being waged against two-term Republican incumbent Chris Chocola, who is trailing in most polls in his bid for re-election in this South Bend-area district in northern Indiana that is usually comfortably Republican. Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly came out of nowhere and into a lead, and appears to be deflecting criticisms of his previous property tax delinquency that have been brought up by Republicans. Given the consistent anecdotal evidence working to Donnelly's advantage, I have to call this race for him. Prediction: Donnelly by 3. (+7 for Dems)
Indiana, District 8--Conservative Democrat Brad Ellsworth is now looking very strong in his efforts to oust Republican incumbent John Hostettler, a long-time Democratic bogeyman representing a strongly GOP district in southwestern Indiana. Thus far, attempts to connect the dots between Ellsworth and the ascendancy of Nancy Pelosi do not seem to be working. I've been bullish on this race from the beginning, and now expect it to be an early indicator of how the night will go on November 7. Polls close early in Indiana. If Ellsworth is declared the winner of IN-08 within an hour of the polls closing (that would be 6 p.m. central time), the Republicans are likely to be in for a horrible night. Prediction: Ellsworth by 6 (+8 for Dems)
Indiana, District 9--Right next door in southeastern Indiana is a rematch between former Democratic representative Baron Hill and the Republican who narrowly unseated him in the GOP year of 2004, Mike Sodrel. Certainly, 2006 is not looking to be a good year for Indiana Republicans the way that 2004 was, meaning Sodrel should be the weakest of the three endangered Republicans in trouble this year. Polls don't necessarily suggest Sodrel is doomed, but Hill has a lead in just about every poll and I expect that he'll pull off a narrow victory and reclaim the House seat Sodrel took away from him. Prediction: Hill by 3 (+9 for Dems)
Iowa, District 1--An open seat vacated by Republican Jim Nussle, this eastern Iowa district is favorable turf for Democrats with John Kerry winning by 7 points in 2004. Most polls show Democrat Bruce Braley with a lead over Republican Mike Whalen, but it's a tougher call than one would think given the geography of this district and its candidates. In the end, I'm calling it for Braley. Prediction: Braley by 4. (+10 for Dems)
Iowa, District 2--An even more favorable district for Democrats, going for John Kerry by 11 points, any other Republican would be toast in this blue-collar southeastern Iowa district, but longtime liberal GOP incumbent Jim Leach has compiled the seniority, respect, and independent voting record to compel voters to cross party lines in his favor. A poll last week showed Leach with a stunningly soft one-point lead over Democratic challenger Dave Loebsack, but I think it's an outlier. I can't see Leach losing. Prediction: Leach by 9.
Iowa, District 3--In central Iowa, conservative Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell is one of the few vulnerable Democrats, due to his recent health problems and his strong Republican challenger Jeff Lamberti. Any other year, Lamberti would probably get the better of Boswell, who is not a natural politician and pales next to Lamberti on the stage. But Lamberti's message of "voting for change" by electing an unapologetic rubber stamp for the Bush administration seems like a tough sell in moderate central Iowa this year. Boswell has held modest leads in the polls, but I do expect the endless barrage of mostly unanswered negative ads against him will take their toll by election day. I'm predicting Boswell, but would not be surprised if Lamberti pulled it out. Prediction: Boswell by 3.
Kansas, District 2--Internal Democratic polls are showing surpisingly strong numbers for Democrat Nancy Boyda in her longshot bid to unseat GOP incumbent Jim Ryun in this solidly GOP district in northeastern Kansas. Boyda did respectably when challenging Ryun in 2004, so I guess it's possible she's within striking distance, but I'm still expecting a comfortable Ryun victory at the end of the day. Prediction: Ryun by 8.
Kentucky, District 2--Military Democrat Mike Weaver makes a special point of reminding voters "he's not one of those liberals" every chance he gets, to the point of making an ass out of himself last week. Weaver is nonetheless considered a modestly strong candidate who could potentially take down long-time GOP incumbent Ron Lewis, but I can't see it happening in this deep-red pocket of western Kentucky encroaching upon tobacco farms, bluegrass country, and Fort Knox, which George Bush won by nearly 2-1 in 2004. Lewis will win handily. Prediction: Lewis by 14.
Kentucky, District 3--Democrats have been trying for more than a decade now to unseat Republican Anne Northup in this Democrat-leaning Louisville district, always falling short. The current political climate has made them confident 2006 will finally be the year as Democratic challenger John Yarmouth is polling strongly and taking advantage of a surprisingly fierce anti-GOP climate on both sides of the conservative Ohio River Valley. In the end, however, I expect Northup will squeak it out like she always does. But watch this one. Kentucky is the first state in the nation to close its polls. If Yarmouth is leading early, it's gonna a good night for Dems. Prediction: Northup by 4.
Kentucky, District 4--Moving to the northeast from Louisville to metropolitan Cincinnati, Democrats have a strong candidate in a very Republican district. The candidate is former Congressman Ken Lucas, an affable conservative Democrat who represented the district for six years in Congress before retiring in 2004. Replacing him was Republican Geoff Davis who now faces Lucas in a rematch of their competitive 2002 race. The Democratic leaning rural areas in Appalachia will have to come out strong for Lucas to offset the growing Republican advantage in the southern suburbs of Cincinnati. I was originally bullish about Lucas, but now I'm leaning towards Davis pulling this one out. Prediction: Davis by 4.
Louisiana, District 3--Despite the demographic uncertainties that shook up Louisiana post-Katrina, it appears as though there will only be one hotly-contested Congressional race in the state this year, in the seat held by one-term Democratic incumbent Charlie Melancon in the state's storm-ravaged southeastern corner. Finally last week, a public poll was released showing Melancon with a nearly 2-1 lead over Republican challenger Craig Romero. It appears that the conventional wisdom was correct that Melancon won over his constituents with his handling of the CAFTA trade agreement, fiercely opposed by the area's sugar industry, and his efforts to hold the Bush administration's feet to the fire over their Katrina relief bumbling. I doubt the predicted blowout will come to fruition in this conservative district, but I am no longer worried about Melancon's potential defeat. Prediction: Melancon by 8.
Michigan, District 7--Considering how ugly Michigan's economy is, there's very little volatility in the state's House races this cycle, mostly the product of favorable GOP gerrymanders enacted in the John Engler era. One race with the potential of competitive is District 7 in south-central Michigan which leans Republican, but not substantially so. Republican incumbent Joe Schwarz was beaten in the primary by conservative challenger Tim Walberg. The Dems would probably be more optimistic about their chances in this open seat if their own candidate was someone other than Sharon Renier, who even unwavering partisans at the Daily Kos consider to be weak and unelectable. Based on the complete lack of buzz surrounding this race, I have no choice but to agree. Prediction: Walberg by 9.
Michigan, District 9--Some private polling has shown Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg could be vulnerable in this Oakland County swing district, but the complete lack of buzz surrounding Democratic challenger Nancy Skinner makes me doubt that Knollenberg will be beatable. Prediction: Knollenberg by 11.
Michigan, District 11--Early on, there was some positive buzz surrounding the candidacy of local radio talk show host Tony Trupiano running as a Democrat against incumbent Republican Thaddeus McCotter in this slightly GOP-leaning district in the northwestern suburbs of Detroit. Lackluster fundraising and campaign organizations have faded Trupiano's star considerably though, and few people consider McCotter to be seriously endangered. Prediction: McCotter by 14.
Minnesota, District 1--The early signs were promising, and a spate of recent polls now confirm that military Democrat Tim Walz is the real deal in his effort to unseat GOP incumbent Gil Gutknecht, who is emerging as surprisingly weak this cycle in his slightly lean-Republican district in southern Minnesota. In the end, however, I think Gutknecht's name ID advantage will carry the day, but he'll have to put out some better TV ads than the lackluster one he has out right now to remind voters of his recent independent streak, which will be warmly-received if advertised. Don't count Walz out just yet though. He's running a great campaign. Prediction: Gutknecht by 5.
Minnesota, District 2--Some polls have indicated Democratic challenger and former Time magazine Person of the Year Coleen Rowley is within striking distance of incumbent Republican John Kline in this safely Republican district in the southern suburbs and exurbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul. I can't see a Democrat winning here no matter how strong the partisan tide, but Rowley will probably hold Kline to single digits, which is progress I guess. Prediction: Kline by 9.
Minnesota, District 6--The marquee House race in Minnesota is in this conservative exurban district north of Minneapolis-St. Paul, pitting liberal child advocate Patty Wetterling against conservative wingnut legislator Michele Bachmann. I have long predicted that Bachmann is too conservative even for this solidly Republican district in Minnesota, but polls are inconclusive and I sense that Wetterling has not taken advantage of the opportunity to define Bachmann as the crazy that she is, which she has to do to win over these Republican voters. The Mark Foley scandal provided another opening for Wetterling with her background in child safety issues, but it's a fine line between working one's resume for all it's worth and exploiting something for political gain. In this district, I fear more voters will see Patty's move as opportunistic. This race is still volatile given Patty's weak campaigning skills and Bachmann's wild and crazy mouth, but I have to give the odds to Bachmann at this point. Prediction: Bachmann by4.
Nebraska, District 1--With Ben Nelson apparently poised to score a healthy victory in his Senate race, there could conceivably be some coattail benefits for his former Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul, running against one-term incumbent Jeff Fortenberry in this Lincoln-area House seat. Few people think Moul will win, but no polling data has been made available confirming or refuting the strength of her challenge either. Still, this is Nebraska, so one has to give the odds to the Republican candidate. Prediction: Fortenberry by 13.
Nebraska, District 3--One of the most interesting candidates running on the Democratic ticket this year is Scott Kleeb, a young rancher from western Nebraska who makes the ladies swoon. Anywhere else in the country, Cowboy Kleeb would likely pull out a victory in an open seat, but this seat vacated by Republican Tom Osborne is in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in the country. Kleeb is within striking distance of Republican challenger Adrian Smith in polls, but at the end of the day, a district that went for Bush by 75% will not vote for a Democratic Congressmen two years later in the current hyperpolarized political climate. Kleeb may have a future in Nebraska politics, but it doesn't seem likely it'll be representing NE-03 in Congress. Prediction: Smith by 14.
Nevada, District 2--Some polls have suggested Democrat Jill Derby is within striking distance of Republican opponent Dean Heller in this strongly Republican district in upstate Nevada vacated by GOP gubernatorial candidate Jim Gibbons. Heller narrowly won a three-way primary victory and was probably the best candidate in the race. In a serious upset, Derby could emerge victorious, but the odds are extremely against it. Prediction: Heller by 8.
Nevada, District 3--In this swing district on the north side of the Las Vegas metro area, Republican incumbent Jon Porter faces young Democratic challenger Tessa Hafen, who has worked with Senator Harry Reid. Polls have shown Porter with a modest if unsubstantial lead, which I expect will hold up even if the Democrats are shocking the world on November 7. The apparent GOP momentum in both the Senate and gubernatorial races will not help Hafen's cause any. Prediction: Porter by 8.
New Hampshire, District 1--Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley may have been vulnerable in his swing district in eastern New Hampshire, but the weaker Democratic challenger, anti-war activist Carol Shea-Porter, prevailed in her party's primary, essentially making the race a coronation for Bradley. Prediction: Bradley by 21.
New Hampshire, District 2--Democrat Paul Hodes, favorite candidate of the netroots activists, is putting forth a surprisingly strong challenge to incumbent Republican Charlie Bass in this Democrat-trending western New Hampshire district. Bass was still poised to win, but some recent off-color remarks insulting his neighbors in Vermont and New York City will have him on defense for awhile, potentially giving Hodes the opening he needs to win. I still think Bass will pull it out in the end though. Prediction: Bass by 6.
New Jersey, District 7--The only seriously contested House district in New Jersey this year is this affluent district in the southwestern exurbs of Newark and Jersey City, which are of course all attached to the New York City area. Republican incumbent Mike Ferguson faces a strong challenge from Democratic opponent Linda Stender. Polls show it close, but with Ferguson maintaining a lead. New Jersey has a long-standing reputation of closing strong for Democrats, but I'm not convinced Stender will be a beneficiary of that this year. Prediction: Ferguson by 5.
New Mexico, District 1--For the longest time, I was frustrated with the small but consistent leads posted by Republican incumbent Heather Wilson over New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, her Democratic challenger in this hotly-contested Democratic-leaning district in metropolitan Albuquerque. If the Democrats weren't winning in this race, I told myself, they wouldn't be winning elsewhere in the country. Thankfully, Madrid now seems to have the momentum and polls trending her way. I'm now expecting she'll prevail in this contest, once again no thanks to the widely-hyped surge in "Latino voters" that simply hasn't happened. Prediction: Madrid by 3. (+11 for Dems)
New York, District 3--I never took seriously the challenge by Democrat Dave Meijas to Long Island's last-standing Republican, long-time incumbent Peter King, until recent poll numbers showed Meijas nipping at King's heels. I also never took seriously this long-advertised premise of Democrats sweeping multiple Republican-held House districts in New York. King's apparently vulnerability could prove wrong because if King is in trouble in New York, most other Republicans surely are as well. Nonetheless, I expect King will prevail as his district continues to lean Republican. Prediction: King by 7.
New York, District 19--Republican incumbent Sue Kelly from the northern exurbs of New York City was expected to prevail because the crowded Democratic primary field would leave a Dem nominee with limited funds and plenty of critics. The nominee ended up being musician John Hall, who doesn't strike me as a top-tier candidate. He'll likely get closer to Kelly than her usual opponents do, simply because of the Democratic tide this year, but he'll come well short of unseating her. Prediction: Kelly by 11.
New York, District 20--I've always scratched my head why Democrats think thought this district in northeastern New York, one of the state's most reliably Republican, was seriously ripe for a takeover. The Dems do have a strong and attractive candidate in Kirsten Gillibrand, but she does not seem to have convinced voters that Republican incumbent John Sweeney deserves to get the heave-ho. In the end, I suspect the Dems will be sorry they wasted so many resources here. Prediction: Sweeney by 9.
New York, District 24--This was the only top-tier pick-up opportunity for Democrats in New York pre-Mark Foley in this central New York open seat vacated by Sherwood Boehlert, one of the last of the true Rockefeller Republicans. Even though this district leans narrowly GOP, this is not a good year to be trying to win an open seat in New York as a Republican. I was skeptical of our chances here early on, but recent polling data shows Democrat Mike Arcuri pulling ahead of GOP nominee Ray Meier. This is by no means a slam dunk, but I'm leaning towards Arcuri. Prediction: Arcuri by 4. (+12 for Dems)
New York, District 25--This Syracuse-area district is New York's bluest district held by a Republican in the House, but that doesn't mean 18-year incumbent James Walsh will be going down easy. Democrat Dan Maffei has the best-case scenario if there ever was one to take out Walsh, but I don't see it happening. Prediction: Walsh by 7.
New York, District 26--A month ago, I laughed at Democrats hopes of taking down NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds, long-tim Republican incumbent from suburban Buffalo and Niagara Falls. Then a poll was released showing Reynolds with a scant two-point lead over Democratic challenger Jack Davis, and I began to reconsider. Then, Reynolds got wrapped up as a direct culprit in the Mark Foley cover-up, and his poll numbers dropped like a rock. At this point, Reynolds look to be an almost certain casualty of the scandal, and was already more vulnerable than I had thought. Prediction: Davis by 7. (+13 for Dems)
New York, District 29--Conservative one-term Republican Randy Kuhl would be hard-pressed to win re-election most places in New York, particularly up against a solid Democratic challenger like Air Force pilot and Iraq war veteran Eric Massa, but this is New York's most Republican district, located in the state's largely rural southwestern corner, and every indication is that Kuhl will pull out a modest victory. Prediction: Kuhl by 7.
North Carolina, District 8--One race I have long thought was worthy of more attention than it was getting is this blue-collar district in southeastern North Carolina, currently represented by Republican Robin Hayes, whose high-profile flip-flop over CAFTA has residents in this working-class textile area fuming mad. Hayes also has a strong challenger in Democrat Larry Kissell, who has run an effective, unorthodox campaign on the cheap. In the end, I expect Kissell will fall just short, mainly because of the cultural concerns of conservative voters regarding the prospect of a Democratic House. You can bet many voters in Kannapolis and Fayetteville will be holding their noses as they vote for Hayes though. Prediction: Hayes by 3.
North Carolina, District 11--All the polls show Democratic challenger and former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler ahead of Republican incumbent Charles Taylor in this conservative district on the far west side of North Carolina, but Taylor always seems to close well by playing the same hand that all Republicans seem to play against Democrats in the South. This is a tough call, but ultimately, I'm betting on anti-liberal advertising blitz by Taylor and the GOP will drag him across the finish line by a nose. Prediction: Taylor by 2.
Ohio, District 1--A race that wasn't even on my radar screen six months ago, I'm now increasingly optimistic about Democrat John Cranley's bid to unseat Republican incumbent Steve Chabot in this divided district, gerrymandered to dilute Democratic Cincinnati with very Republican suburbs to its north. The perfect storm of corruption scandals in Ohio will probably take down Chabot if African-American turnout is robust. Prediction: Cranley by 2. (+14 for Dems)
Ohio, District 2--The dreadful Republican incumbent Jean Schmidt was narrowly elected in a special election is this ruby red district in suburban Cincinnati, but was expected to have an easier time this fall without Democratic boy wonder Paul Hackett challenging her. But it appears Schmidt is universally weak as her opponent this cycle, Victoria Wulsin, is either tied with Schmidt or slightly ahead in most polls. Much as I'd love to see this glorified cafeteria lady sent back to Clermont County, I fear the nearly 2-1 Republican advantage in her district will drag her across the finish line on election night much like it did in the special election last summer. Prediction: Schmidt by 4.
Ohio, District 6--After all the interesting detours and raised GOP expectations about winning this culturally conservative, blue-collar district in southeastern Ohio being vacated by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland, the race stands pretty much where I expected it to stand last year at this time......with Democrat Charlie Wilson sitting on a comfortable lead over Republican challenger Chuck Blasdel. Wilson's idiotic signature petition blunder last spring was widely expected to doom his campaign, but ultimately helped him by raising his name recognition months before his opponent was able to get into the spotlight. Overall, Wilson should win comfortably. Prediction: Wilson by 11.
Ohio, District 12--There's some speculation that Columbus area GOP incumbent Pat Tiberi could be vulnerable to Democratic challenger Bob Shamansky, but get real. The guy is frickin' 78 years old. Non-incumbents are never able to begin political careers at age 78. Tiberi will win easily. Prediction: Tiberi by 15.
Ohio, District 13--It was an always an extreme longshot for the Republicans to takeover this blue-collar Akron-area district currently held by Democrat Sherrod Brown, who's running for the Senate. However, the GOP put their best foot forward running Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, the only possible candidate who could win in this district. Perhaps in a Republican year, Foltin would be competitive, but this is not a competitive year for Republicans, and Democrat Betty Sutton will surely score a decisive victory, holding Brown's seat for the donks. Prediction: Sutton by 12.
Ohio, District 15--Last year at this time, I was one of the only horserace analysts bullish on the prospect of unseating high-ranking House Republican and CAFTA flip-flopper Deborah Pryce from her Democratic-trending Columbus-area district. Top-tier Democratic candidate Mary Jo Kilroy had just entered the race and generated some buzz, but few thought Pryce was seriously beatable. Twelve months later, Pryce in the race of her life, with some polls showing her trailing and the momentum clearly in Kilroy's corner. I think Kilroy will take her down. Prediction: Kilroy by 2. (+15 for Dems)
Ohio, District 18--As I said last month when crowning Republican Bob Ney as September's GOP Asshat of the Month, if Ney had admitted his guilt and resigned immediately rather than lie to his consituents by continuing to profess his innocence through his primary victory, Republicans would have a different horse in this race and would most likely win this heavily Republican district in November against lackluster Democratic challenger Zack Space. Since Ney did everything wrong and is now headed to prison, voters seem unlikely to reward Ney's handpicked Republican successor Joy Padgett with his seat in Congress. Space wins by default, but I'll take it. Prediction: Space by 6. (+16 for Dems)
Pennsylvania, District 4--This race is hardly a top-tier prospect for Democrats, but Republican Melissa Hart is rumored to be potentially vulnerable in her heavily blue-collar district in the northern suburbs of Pittsburgh and Beaver Valley region of western PA. The fact that I don't even know the name of Hart's Democratic opponent is not promising for his/her chances, however. Prediction: Hart by 10.
Pennsylvania, District 6--Long considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country due to his thin victory margins in previous runs and his Democratic-trending district in the western suburbs of Philadelphia, Jim Gerlach probably will lose to Democratic challenger Lois Murphy, but it isn't a foregone conclusion as the Democrats may have hoped it would be last year at this time. A couple of polls (though potentially outliers) suggest Gerlach still could pull this out, although I'm thinking the odds are now stacked heavily against him. Prediction: Murphy by 3 (+17 Dems)
Pennsylvania, District 7--Last year at this time, moonbat conservative Curt Weldon was not considered to be imminently vulnerable, even though his district in the southwestern suburbs of Philly has been trending very strongly Democrat in recent years. My what a difference a year makes. Weldon has made a handful of silly gaffes and faces a strong opponent in military Democrat Joe Sestak. Having a top-tier challenger has helped expose some of the more outrageous comments and actions Weldon has been known to make in recent years. Adding insult to injury, Weldon now faces criminal investigations for possible corruption three weeks before the election. I feel safe in predicting it will be the nail in Weldon's coffin. Prediction: Sestak by 5. (+18 Dems)
Pennsylvania, District 8--Iraq war veteran Patrick Murphy seemed like a such a strong candidate last year at this time, and still does. One-term conservative Republican Mike Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, seemed like such a weak incumbent, particularly with his district in the northern Philly suburbs having voted for John Kerry and trending undeniably Democratic. But for whatever reason, the conventional wisdom and all the polls suggest Fitzpatrick has the advantage. In a massive Democratic sweep, Murphy could still win, but I'm betting against him at this point. Prediction: Fitzpatrick by 3.
Pennsylvania, District 10--It was pretty clear last spring when long-time Republican incumbent Don Sherwood barely won his party's primary against an unfunded neophyte challenger that he was in serious trouble. His marital infidelity and charges of mistress-choking aren't sitting well with the conservative voters of his rural, northeastern Pennsylvania district, which has always been strongly and reliably Republican. The fact this his Democratic opponent is an articulate, plainspoken war veteran has only managed to put Sherwood further on the ropes, as all polls indicate. Sherwood is finished. Prediction: Carney by 5. (+19 Dems)
South Carolina, District 5--The Republicans didn't have very good timing in their efforts to unseat John Spratt, one of the last remaining blue-dog Democrats consistently winning in heavily Republican districts in the South. GOP state legislator Greg Norman would have had a great chance to topple Spratt in 2002 or 2004, but it seems very unlikely to happen now. At this point, this race is not even on the radar screens of most horserace analysts. Prediction: Spratt by 10.
Tennessee, District 9--I have a really bad feeling about this overwhelmingly Democratic seat in the city of Memphis vacated by Senate candidate Harold Ford, Jr. Democratic candidate Steve Cohen is a white man in a district that's nearly two-thirds African-American (probably more than that now with all the Hurricane Katrina refugees that have settled there). Cohen won a crowded primary field where the black candidates divided their allegiances to several black candidates. Cohen doesn't face a serious challenge from the Republican candidate, but rather an independent candidate, none other than Harold Ford, Jr's brother. I don't know anything about Ford's brother as a candidate, or if he intends to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, but I'd prefer not to learn the hard way. My guess is Cohen wins, but I fear the Democratic Party isn't taking seriously the racial dynamic of this contest. Prediction: Cohen by 5.
Texas, District 17--Last week at this time, I would have predicted Chet Edwards as a Democratic casualty....the only one of this cycle. His Central Texas district is overwhelmingly Republican and I had serious doubts whether he could topple Van Taylor, a candidate who has his flaws, but is far better than the 2004 opponent that Edwards narrowly defeated. However, a poll released last week showed Edwards with a huge double-digit lead that strikes me as impenetrable even if the margin is inflated. Looks like Edwards will be able to live on borrowed time a little longer in this district. Prediction: Edwards by 6.
Texas, District 22--Tom DeLay gamed the system one time too many and almost assuredly handed Democrats his seat in the western and southern suburbs/exurbs of Houston. Against any Republican but the indicted DeLay, Democrat Nick Lampson would have been hard-pressed to pull out a win, but the seat was likely saved for Lampson when a Texas judge ruled The Hammer's attempted candidate switcheroo as incompatible with Texas law. Now, the GOP is waging a longshot write-in candidacy for Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs that seems very unlikely to work. Lampson should win by default, but hopefully he's already planning how he'll hang onto this brutal seat in 2008. Prediction: Lampson by16. (+20 for Dems)
Texas, District 23--The Supreme Court's recent decision to toss out some of Texas' recent GOP-friendly gerrymander will have a serious outcome on only one race in 2006, the southwestern Texas district held by Republican Henry Bonilla which has now become majority-Hispanic and far more Democratic. I had heard former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez may run for this seat, and then heard he wouldn't. At this point, I don't even know the Democrat running against Bonilla, which doesn't bode well for the likelihood of a Democratic upset. Prediction: Bonilla by 13.
Vermont At-large--I was reasonably confident that one of the most liberal and anti-war states in the union would not replace Senate-bound Socialist Bernie Sanders with a military Republican, and the polls now seem to indicate that Democrat Peter Welch has the advantage over Republican Martha Rainville. It'll still be a closer race than many may have expected in Vermont, however. Prediction: Welch by 8. (+21 for Dems, officially)
Virginia, District 2--Democrat Phil Kellam is waging a much stiffer challenge to one-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake than anyone would have expected in Pat Robertson country (Virginia Beach). Polls are conflicting, but my money is certainly on Drake hanging on for a second term. Prediction: Drake by 4.
Washington, District 5--There's some buzz about Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark being competitive against one-term GOP incumbent Cathy McMorris in this Republican-trending, largely rural district in eastern Washington that was formerly held by Democratic Speaker of the House Tom Foley. Ultimately, however, I expect the buzz to buzz off on election night with a comfortable McMorris victory. Prediction: McMorris by 12.
Washington, District 8--Despite some early skepticism about her prospects, former Microsoft bigshot Darcy Burner has emerged as the real deal in her bid to unseat one-term Republican Dave Reichert in this swing district in the eastern suburbs of Seattle. Reichert maintains a high level of respect for his law enforcement tenure in the region, and I ultimately expect him to prevail by the thinnest of margins. Prediction: Reichert by 1.
West Virginia, District 1--One would think longtime Democratic incumbent Alan Mollohan would be in a world of hurt right now in his Republican-trending district in northern West Virginia, being under the scepter of criminal investigation and giving an appearance of guilt, but there's little indication that GOP challenger Chris Wakim has succeeded in turning the public tide against Mollohan. It'll probably be his narrowest margin of victory ever, but Mollohan looks poised to weather the storm. Prediction: Mollohan by 8.
West Virginia, District 2--Some early optimists thought Lex Luthor-lookalike Mike Callaghan was the Democratic candidate capable of unseating Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito in this GOP-trending district in central and eastern West Virginia, but for the life of me I can't see why. Prediction: Capito by 18.
Wisconsin, District 8--This open seat in northeastern Wisconsin is vacated by Republican Mark Green, who's running for Governor. The district leans Republican, but polls indicate a tick-tight race between Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican John Gard. Much as I'd love to be optimistic and go with Kagen, the combination of the district's GOP tilt and the potential coattails of gubernatorial candidate Green strikes me as too formidable of an obstacle. Prediction: Gard by 3.
Wyoming At-large--It's mind-blowing that this race between unpopular incumbent Barbara Cubin and Democratic challenger Gary Trauner is this close this late in the game considering that Wyoming went for George Bush with nearly 70% of the vote in 2004, but polls still indicate a tight race and Cubin's handlers have brought in national Republican operators to try to save her ass. Ultimately, I strongly suspect they will as the prospect of handing over the House to national Democrats would be tantamount to a sacrelige in Wyoming. Prediction: Cubin by 7.
A long list to be sure, but one with a much happier ending than I would have anticipated a couple of months ago. Like Kos himself, I've felt an undercurrent of pessimism about our chances for quite some time now and still feel that our national prospects are being artifically hyped by a media looking for a storyline. Nonetheless, the evidence is now pointing to an undeniable strong showing by Democrats, and I'm predicting they'll take the House. The next Congress will have 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans.
Here's my take on how things will unfold, with brief analysis of every race that is even on the radar screen of competitiveness....
Arizona, District 1--Modestly popular Republican incumbent Rick Renzi was considered a safe bet for re-election in his swing district in the state's rural northeast side entailing several of Arizona's vast Indian reservations....until the last couple of weeks that is. Democratic challenger Ellen Simon held a small lead in a recent poll. I don't know much in the way of specifics about this race since it's been beneath just about everybody's radar screen, but the poll strikes me at the gut level as overly optimistic for Simon. If Renzi were to be defeated, it would easily be on the biggest upsets of the evening, but I'm still expecting Renzi to pull this out, albeit by a smaller margin than he defeated Paul Babbitt in 2004. Prediction: Renzi by 6.
Arizona, District 5--Harry Mitchell, the popular Democratic Mayor of Tempe, is putting up a spirited campaign against hard-core Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth in this GOP-leaning district in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix, but every poll shows Mitchell falling short. In the end, this seat will probably be viewed as too much for the Democrats to ask for even in a "tsunami" year. Prediction: Hayworth by 8.
Arizona, District 8--I've seen enough data at this point to trust the conventional wisdom that conservative GOP candidate Randy Graf is unelectable in this swing district on the Mexican border, even with his hard-line immigration position. The ethics controversy now facing retiring Republican Jim Kolbe regarding the Mark Foley page scandal is only likely to add to the momentum of the attractive centrist Democrat Gabrielle Giffords. The NRCC gave up on this seat after Graf won the primary, and it looks to be perhaps the best pickup opportunity in the country for Democrats. Prediction: Giffords by 12. (+1 for Dems)
California, District 4--Ties to the Abramoff scandal plague popular Republican incumbent John Doolittle in this strongly conservative rural district in northeastern California. Despite the cartoonish name, Doolittle faces a strong challenger this time in military Democrat Charlie Brown. Recent polling shows Doolittle holding a comfortable lead, but it's still possible this seat could swing to Brown. The guilty plea by fellow Abramoff conspirator Bob Ney this week certainly won't help Doolittle's cause. Still, I think he'll squeak by for another term. Prediction: Doolittle by 6.
California, District 11--Scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Richard Pombo is facing a stronger-than-expected challenge in his GOP-leaning agriculture-heavy district in central California from Democratic challenger Jerry McNerney. With a hotly-contested race at the top of the ticket in California, Pombo could be in some serious trouble, but the flameout of Phil Angelides in the gubernatorial race doesn't bode well for the kind of Democratic turnout needed to unseat Pombo. In the end, I suspect Pombo wins, albeit by his narrowest margin in years. Prediction: Pombo by 5.
California, District 50--If Democrat Francine Busby couldn't beat Republican Brian Bilbray in a summer special election with the entire apparatus of the Democratic Party at her disposal and a GOP predecessor serving a prison term for his corruption scandal, she has no chance at all to win in November with the party over her no help and Bilbray with the advantage of incumbency in a solidly GOP district full of country club Republicans. Prediction: Bilbray by 13.
Colorado, District 3--Republicans had high hopes last year at this time of unseating freshman Democrat John Salazar in his Republican-leaning district (but leaning that way less so with each passing election cycle) in western Colorado ski country. No polls thus far have shown Republican challenger Scott Tipton within striking distance. The fact that national Republicans seem to have all but written Tipton off, it's very likely Salazar could win by a wider margin than was even expected. Prediction: Salazar by 12.
Colorado, District 4--Far-right Republican ideologue Marilyn Musgrave had a bit of a scare in 2004 when she won a second term by an extremely modest margin in this conservative ranch district in eastern Colorado. This year, Musgrave faces a potentially stiffer challenge from Democratic state legislator Angie Paccionne. Musgrave could suffer from the counter-coattails of the Colorado gubernatorial race, which is looking more and more like a blowout for the Democrats. Sooner or later, demographic shifts to the northern Denver suburbs/exurbs will make this district ripe for Democratic competitiveness, but I don't think we're there yet. Paccionne is within striking distance in the polls, but I'm betting she won't be able to seal the deal due to the partisan disadvantage she faces. Prediction: Musgrave by 4.
Colorado, District 5--Democrats are as giddy as school girls about the competitiveness of their strong candidate, military veteran Jay Fawcett, in this open seat in Colorado's most conservative district. Controversial Republican Doug Lamborn is generating plenty of bad mojo in his party, including that of retiring incumbent Joel Hefley, who hates Lamborn so much that he actually mulled a third-party run against him. Indeed, polls show Lamborn and Fawcett locked in a dead heat with more than a quarter of voters undecided. But let's get real....this is James Dobson country and the home of conservative Peterson A.F.B. Boosting Fawcett from a 37% poll showing to the 50% he'll need to win will be nearly impossible in a district that's more than 2-1 Republican. It'll be a hollow victory, but Lamborn will pull it out fairly comfortably in the end. Prediction: Lamborn by 13.
Colorado, District 7--Polls have been erratic in this Democratic-leaning district in the western suburbs of Denver, being vacated by retiring Republican Bob Beauprez. Conventional wisdom is that Democrat Ed Perlmutter is running ahead of GOP challenger Rick O'Donnell, but I'm not convinced it's a slam dunk at this point. Nonetheless, I'll go with Perlmutter to win a seat long-considered one of the Democrats' best pick-up opportunities in the country. Prediction: Perlmutter by 4. (+2 for Dems)
Connecticut, District 2--The bluest district in the country held by a Republican in the House, Connecticut's rural east side faces the choice of their moderate GOP incumbent, Rob Simmons, or his challenger, Democrat Joe Courtney. Any other year, Simmons would win in a walk, and there's still the chance that he may this year. Once seen as a must-win for the Democrats to win the House, the map has opened up a bit and put several other seats in play, reducing the need for the Dems to unseat Simmons. They may need that as polls are conflicting as to how much trouble Simmons is in. Nonetheless, I'm sensing a furious "blue" tide in the northeast that will likely wash away Simmons, but narrowly. Prediction: Courtney by 2. (+3 for Dems)
Connecticut, District 4--Moderate Republican Christopher Shays seems to be in more imminent danger than Simmons in his affluent southwestern Connecticut district. Shays remains personally popular in the area, but war-weary voters in the region who came within four points of turning Shays out in 2004 against photogenic then-and-now challenger Diane Farrell seems poised to finish the job in 2006, barring a gaffe by Farrell. Polling data has been inconclusive, but Shays' desperation seems evident with every public statement he makes, particularly his attempt to resurrect Ted Kennedy's 40-year-old scandal and deflect accountability away from GOP Congressional leaders over Mark Foley. Prediction: Farrell by 4. (+4 for Dems)
Connecticut, District 5--I'm not optimistic about the Democrats getting the royal flush in Connecticut because I expect long-time incumbent Nancy Johnson to prevail over Iraq war vet Chris Murphy in her northwestern Connecticut district, which is the palest shade of blue of the state's five districts. Murphy's within striking distance and is likely to give Johnson a run for her money, but I don't see him sealing the deal. Prediction: Johnson by 4.
Florida, District 9--This Republican-leaning district in the northwestern exurbs of Tampa-St. Petersburg is only nominally a battleground district, and only because it's an open seat with a GOP candidate vulnerable to charges of nepotism. Republican Gus Bilirakis, son of retiring Congressman Michael, nonetheless seems poised to score an easy victory against Democratic rival Phyllis Busansky. Prediction: Bilirakis by 11.
Florida, District 13--One of the biggest surprises in the country in the last month is the strength of Democratic nominee Christine Jennings in this heavily GOP district in southwestern Florida, currently represented by Katherine Harris. I was one of the few who mentioned it as a potential battleground last year at this time, and it appears my instinct was right as she now has a modest lead in the polls against GOP challenger Vern Buchanan. I'm extremely hesitant to call this race for Jennings given the strong Republican tilt of the district, but the anecdotal evidence is getting harder to ignore and I suspect Jennings will squeak it out. Prediction: Jennings by 1. (+5 for Dems).
Florida, District 16--It seems like a lifetime ago at this point, but it's only been 15 days since the safe GOP-held Congressional district in the West Palm Beach area was thrown on its head with the resignation of alleged child predator Mark Foley. Almost immediately, Republicans gave up on the prospect of hanging onto this seat and all but conceded it to Democratic challenger Tim Mahoney, seeing as how Foley will remain on the ballot and supporters of his replacement candidate would have to vote for the disgraced Foley to elect the replacement. A tall order to be sure, but the polls indicate that "Foley" stands to get a far better showing than the shellacking I originally predicted, even though this district isn't THAT Republican. The most recent poll shows Mahoney with a fairly soft (given the circumstances) seven-point advantage. In the end, I can't imagine voters being able to pull the lever for Foley once they get in the voting booth, but I also don't expect this seat will be the freebie Dems are expecting. Prediction: Mahoney by 6. (+6 for Dems)
Florida, District 22--Once considered the only battleground House race we were likely to see in Florida, I would now rank the faceoff between long-time GOP incumbent Clay Shaw and strong Democratic challenger Ron Klein as only being the third most likely pick-up opportunity for Democrats in Florida. Despite this Gold Coast district's Democratic lean, bipartisan allegiance to Shaw does not seem to be wavering enough to unseat him. Prediction: Shaw by 5.
Georgia, District 8--A year ago at this time, Democrats were mightily concerned about the plight of conservative Democrat Jim Marshall, whose central Georgia district was gerrymandered to become even more Republican. Adding insult to injury, former GOP Congressman Mac Collins came out of retirement to challenge Marshall. I was the first to predict Marshall's day in Congress were over. Now it looks like he'll survive as every poll indicates Marshall holds a significant lead even in a district that voted for George Bush by 22 points two years ago. The threat of a Democratic takeover of the House will probably swing some voters over to Collins in the final weeks, but I still expect Marshall to hang on. Prediction: Marshall by 6.
Georgia, District 12--Democrat John Barrow also saw his eastern Georgia district become more Republican (or in the case of this Kerry-voting district, less Democratic) after a 2005 gerrymander. He also faces a re-match against a man he narrowly beat in 2004, Max Burns. For whatever reason, the conservative Burns has his share of loyalists in the region and it's hard to predict what kind of advantage Burns will have in the district's new territory. The lack of competitive statewide races in Georgia is likely to suppress black turnout, which could also hurt Barrow. I was more optimistic about this race early on, but now am predicting the narrowest of victories for the conservative Democrat Barrow. Prediction: Barrow by 1.
Idaho, District 1--No that's not a misprint. This district in northern Idaho which voted 69% Bush in 2004 is a true battleground in 2006, with Democrat Larry Grant benefitting mightily from the split in GOP ranks over controversial uber-conservative Republican candidate Bill Sali, who narrowly won a hotly-contested primary. Legislative colleagues routinely deride Sali and his opponents refuse to endorse him, giving Grant a credible chance of a wild upset (the most recent poll showed Sali leading by three points, within the margin of error). In the end, I think fear of a Democratic Congressional takeover will end up boosting Sali, but it's nonetheless a nightmare scenario for national Republicans to have to invest limited financial resources to hang onto an open House seat in frickin' Idaho. Prediction: Sali by 9.
Illinois, District 6--This affluent suburban Chicago district vacated by Henry Hyde has turned out to be every bit the hotly-contested battleground it was expected to be, pitting popular GOP legislator Peter Roskam against Iraq war veteran and double amputee Tammy Duckworth. There's little argument that Roskam is the better politician of the two, with Duckworth straddling the fence on a number of issues and generally trying to ride her way into office based on a sympathetic personal story the same way Patty Wetterling is doing in Minnesota. Nonetheless, Duckworth seems competent enough to hold her own and polls are showing a neck-and-neck slugfest. Ultimately, Duckworth's evasion of debates is likely to catch up with her, and hand Roskam a modest win in a seat he would have won by double-digits against an average Dem challenger. Prediction: Roskam by 3.
Illinois, District 8--The Chamber of Commerce's favorite Democrat, Melissa Bean, is considered one of the few highly vulnerable Democrats this cycle given the GOP's strong partisan advantage in this affluent, yuppie-populated district in Chicago's northern exurbs. Bean won by default in 2004 when she was running against the senile, alcoholic incumbent Phil Crane, but will have to earn her victory this time against a more competent challenger, David McSweeney. In the end, I suspect Bean's Democrat-ultralite profile will help her peel off enough Republican voters to narrowly win, but it'll still be close. On the first ugly year for Congressional Democrats post-2006, expect Bean to succumb to defeat, but it probably won't happen this time. Prediction: Bean by 3.
Illinois, District 10--Even though this district in the northern suburbs of Chicago went fairly comfortably for John Kerry in 2004, it doesn't seem likely to derail Republican incumbent Mark Kirk in 2006. Kirk has an affable and photogenic African-American opponent in Dan Seals (no, not the country singer), but Seals just can't seem to make any headway against Kirk. Prediction: Kirk by 8.
Illinois, District 17--The decision by long-time incumbent Democrat Lane Evans to retire from his Democratic-leaning blue-collar district centered around the Rock Island-Moline area opened up this seat to potential competitiveness. The Democrats eventually settled upon a candidate, whose name escapes me, that is expected to have an easy time of winning against Republican newswoman Andrea Zinga. Given that this district is by no means a sure bet for Democrats, I'm surprised Republicans didn't put more effort into helping Zinga, but at this point it seems almost certain that the seat will stay in Democratic hands. Prediction: (Democrat) by 8.
Indiana, District 2--Another huge surprise this cycle is the strength of the challenge being waged against two-term Republican incumbent Chris Chocola, who is trailing in most polls in his bid for re-election in this South Bend-area district in northern Indiana that is usually comfortably Republican. Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly came out of nowhere and into a lead, and appears to be deflecting criticisms of his previous property tax delinquency that have been brought up by Republicans. Given the consistent anecdotal evidence working to Donnelly's advantage, I have to call this race for him. Prediction: Donnelly by 3. (+7 for Dems)
Indiana, District 8--Conservative Democrat Brad Ellsworth is now looking very strong in his efforts to oust Republican incumbent John Hostettler, a long-time Democratic bogeyman representing a strongly GOP district in southwestern Indiana. Thus far, attempts to connect the dots between Ellsworth and the ascendancy of Nancy Pelosi do not seem to be working. I've been bullish on this race from the beginning, and now expect it to be an early indicator of how the night will go on November 7. Polls close early in Indiana. If Ellsworth is declared the winner of IN-08 within an hour of the polls closing (that would be 6 p.m. central time), the Republicans are likely to be in for a horrible night. Prediction: Ellsworth by 6 (+8 for Dems)
Indiana, District 9--Right next door in southeastern Indiana is a rematch between former Democratic representative Baron Hill and the Republican who narrowly unseated him in the GOP year of 2004, Mike Sodrel. Certainly, 2006 is not looking to be a good year for Indiana Republicans the way that 2004 was, meaning Sodrel should be the weakest of the three endangered Republicans in trouble this year. Polls don't necessarily suggest Sodrel is doomed, but Hill has a lead in just about every poll and I expect that he'll pull off a narrow victory and reclaim the House seat Sodrel took away from him. Prediction: Hill by 3 (+9 for Dems)
Iowa, District 1--An open seat vacated by Republican Jim Nussle, this eastern Iowa district is favorable turf for Democrats with John Kerry winning by 7 points in 2004. Most polls show Democrat Bruce Braley with a lead over Republican Mike Whalen, but it's a tougher call than one would think given the geography of this district and its candidates. In the end, I'm calling it for Braley. Prediction: Braley by 4. (+10 for Dems)
Iowa, District 2--An even more favorable district for Democrats, going for John Kerry by 11 points, any other Republican would be toast in this blue-collar southeastern Iowa district, but longtime liberal GOP incumbent Jim Leach has compiled the seniority, respect, and independent voting record to compel voters to cross party lines in his favor. A poll last week showed Leach with a stunningly soft one-point lead over Democratic challenger Dave Loebsack, but I think it's an outlier. I can't see Leach losing. Prediction: Leach by 9.
Iowa, District 3--In central Iowa, conservative Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell is one of the few vulnerable Democrats, due to his recent health problems and his strong Republican challenger Jeff Lamberti. Any other year, Lamberti would probably get the better of Boswell, who is not a natural politician and pales next to Lamberti on the stage. But Lamberti's message of "voting for change" by electing an unapologetic rubber stamp for the Bush administration seems like a tough sell in moderate central Iowa this year. Boswell has held modest leads in the polls, but I do expect the endless barrage of mostly unanswered negative ads against him will take their toll by election day. I'm predicting Boswell, but would not be surprised if Lamberti pulled it out. Prediction: Boswell by 3.
Kansas, District 2--Internal Democratic polls are showing surpisingly strong numbers for Democrat Nancy Boyda in her longshot bid to unseat GOP incumbent Jim Ryun in this solidly GOP district in northeastern Kansas. Boyda did respectably when challenging Ryun in 2004, so I guess it's possible she's within striking distance, but I'm still expecting a comfortable Ryun victory at the end of the day. Prediction: Ryun by 8.
Kentucky, District 2--Military Democrat Mike Weaver makes a special point of reminding voters "he's not one of those liberals" every chance he gets, to the point of making an ass out of himself last week. Weaver is nonetheless considered a modestly strong candidate who could potentially take down long-time GOP incumbent Ron Lewis, but I can't see it happening in this deep-red pocket of western Kentucky encroaching upon tobacco farms, bluegrass country, and Fort Knox, which George Bush won by nearly 2-1 in 2004. Lewis will win handily. Prediction: Lewis by 14.
Kentucky, District 3--Democrats have been trying for more than a decade now to unseat Republican Anne Northup in this Democrat-leaning Louisville district, always falling short. The current political climate has made them confident 2006 will finally be the year as Democratic challenger John Yarmouth is polling strongly and taking advantage of a surprisingly fierce anti-GOP climate on both sides of the conservative Ohio River Valley. In the end, however, I expect Northup will squeak it out like she always does. But watch this one. Kentucky is the first state in the nation to close its polls. If Yarmouth is leading early, it's gonna a good night for Dems. Prediction: Northup by 4.
Kentucky, District 4--Moving to the northeast from Louisville to metropolitan Cincinnati, Democrats have a strong candidate in a very Republican district. The candidate is former Congressman Ken Lucas, an affable conservative Democrat who represented the district for six years in Congress before retiring in 2004. Replacing him was Republican Geoff Davis who now faces Lucas in a rematch of their competitive 2002 race. The Democratic leaning rural areas in Appalachia will have to come out strong for Lucas to offset the growing Republican advantage in the southern suburbs of Cincinnati. I was originally bullish about Lucas, but now I'm leaning towards Davis pulling this one out. Prediction: Davis by 4.
Louisiana, District 3--Despite the demographic uncertainties that shook up Louisiana post-Katrina, it appears as though there will only be one hotly-contested Congressional race in the state this year, in the seat held by one-term Democratic incumbent Charlie Melancon in the state's storm-ravaged southeastern corner. Finally last week, a public poll was released showing Melancon with a nearly 2-1 lead over Republican challenger Craig Romero. It appears that the conventional wisdom was correct that Melancon won over his constituents with his handling of the CAFTA trade agreement, fiercely opposed by the area's sugar industry, and his efforts to hold the Bush administration's feet to the fire over their Katrina relief bumbling. I doubt the predicted blowout will come to fruition in this conservative district, but I am no longer worried about Melancon's potential defeat. Prediction: Melancon by 8.
Michigan, District 7--Considering how ugly Michigan's economy is, there's very little volatility in the state's House races this cycle, mostly the product of favorable GOP gerrymanders enacted in the John Engler era. One race with the potential of competitive is District 7 in south-central Michigan which leans Republican, but not substantially so. Republican incumbent Joe Schwarz was beaten in the primary by conservative challenger Tim Walberg. The Dems would probably be more optimistic about their chances in this open seat if their own candidate was someone other than Sharon Renier, who even unwavering partisans at the Daily Kos consider to be weak and unelectable. Based on the complete lack of buzz surrounding this race, I have no choice but to agree. Prediction: Walberg by 9.
Michigan, District 9--Some private polling has shown Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg could be vulnerable in this Oakland County swing district, but the complete lack of buzz surrounding Democratic challenger Nancy Skinner makes me doubt that Knollenberg will be beatable. Prediction: Knollenberg by 11.
Michigan, District 11--Early on, there was some positive buzz surrounding the candidacy of local radio talk show host Tony Trupiano running as a Democrat against incumbent Republican Thaddeus McCotter in this slightly GOP-leaning district in the northwestern suburbs of Detroit. Lackluster fundraising and campaign organizations have faded Trupiano's star considerably though, and few people consider McCotter to be seriously endangered. Prediction: McCotter by 14.
Minnesota, District 1--The early signs were promising, and a spate of recent polls now confirm that military Democrat Tim Walz is the real deal in his effort to unseat GOP incumbent Gil Gutknecht, who is emerging as surprisingly weak this cycle in his slightly lean-Republican district in southern Minnesota. In the end, however, I think Gutknecht's name ID advantage will carry the day, but he'll have to put out some better TV ads than the lackluster one he has out right now to remind voters of his recent independent streak, which will be warmly-received if advertised. Don't count Walz out just yet though. He's running a great campaign. Prediction: Gutknecht by 5.
Minnesota, District 2--Some polls have indicated Democratic challenger and former Time magazine Person of the Year Coleen Rowley is within striking distance of incumbent Republican John Kline in this safely Republican district in the southern suburbs and exurbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul. I can't see a Democrat winning here no matter how strong the partisan tide, but Rowley will probably hold Kline to single digits, which is progress I guess. Prediction: Kline by 9.
Minnesota, District 6--The marquee House race in Minnesota is in this conservative exurban district north of Minneapolis-St. Paul, pitting liberal child advocate Patty Wetterling against conservative wingnut legislator Michele Bachmann. I have long predicted that Bachmann is too conservative even for this solidly Republican district in Minnesota, but polls are inconclusive and I sense that Wetterling has not taken advantage of the opportunity to define Bachmann as the crazy that she is, which she has to do to win over these Republican voters. The Mark Foley scandal provided another opening for Wetterling with her background in child safety issues, but it's a fine line between working one's resume for all it's worth and exploiting something for political gain. In this district, I fear more voters will see Patty's move as opportunistic. This race is still volatile given Patty's weak campaigning skills and Bachmann's wild and crazy mouth, but I have to give the odds to Bachmann at this point. Prediction: Bachmann by4.
Nebraska, District 1--With Ben Nelson apparently poised to score a healthy victory in his Senate race, there could conceivably be some coattail benefits for his former Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul, running against one-term incumbent Jeff Fortenberry in this Lincoln-area House seat. Few people think Moul will win, but no polling data has been made available confirming or refuting the strength of her challenge either. Still, this is Nebraska, so one has to give the odds to the Republican candidate. Prediction: Fortenberry by 13.
Nebraska, District 3--One of the most interesting candidates running on the Democratic ticket this year is Scott Kleeb, a young rancher from western Nebraska who makes the ladies swoon. Anywhere else in the country, Cowboy Kleeb would likely pull out a victory in an open seat, but this seat vacated by Republican Tom Osborne is in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in the country. Kleeb is within striking distance of Republican challenger Adrian Smith in polls, but at the end of the day, a district that went for Bush by 75% will not vote for a Democratic Congressmen two years later in the current hyperpolarized political climate. Kleeb may have a future in Nebraska politics, but it doesn't seem likely it'll be representing NE-03 in Congress. Prediction: Smith by 14.
Nevada, District 2--Some polls have suggested Democrat Jill Derby is within striking distance of Republican opponent Dean Heller in this strongly Republican district in upstate Nevada vacated by GOP gubernatorial candidate Jim Gibbons. Heller narrowly won a three-way primary victory and was probably the best candidate in the race. In a serious upset, Derby could emerge victorious, but the odds are extremely against it. Prediction: Heller by 8.
Nevada, District 3--In this swing district on the north side of the Las Vegas metro area, Republican incumbent Jon Porter faces young Democratic challenger Tessa Hafen, who has worked with Senator Harry Reid. Polls have shown Porter with a modest if unsubstantial lead, which I expect will hold up even if the Democrats are shocking the world on November 7. The apparent GOP momentum in both the Senate and gubernatorial races will not help Hafen's cause any. Prediction: Porter by 8.
New Hampshire, District 1--Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley may have been vulnerable in his swing district in eastern New Hampshire, but the weaker Democratic challenger, anti-war activist Carol Shea-Porter, prevailed in her party's primary, essentially making the race a coronation for Bradley. Prediction: Bradley by 21.
New Hampshire, District 2--Democrat Paul Hodes, favorite candidate of the netroots activists, is putting forth a surprisingly strong challenge to incumbent Republican Charlie Bass in this Democrat-trending western New Hampshire district. Bass was still poised to win, but some recent off-color remarks insulting his neighbors in Vermont and New York City will have him on defense for awhile, potentially giving Hodes the opening he needs to win. I still think Bass will pull it out in the end though. Prediction: Bass by 6.
New Jersey, District 7--The only seriously contested House district in New Jersey this year is this affluent district in the southwestern exurbs of Newark and Jersey City, which are of course all attached to the New York City area. Republican incumbent Mike Ferguson faces a strong challenge from Democratic opponent Linda Stender. Polls show it close, but with Ferguson maintaining a lead. New Jersey has a long-standing reputation of closing strong for Democrats, but I'm not convinced Stender will be a beneficiary of that this year. Prediction: Ferguson by 5.
New Mexico, District 1--For the longest time, I was frustrated with the small but consistent leads posted by Republican incumbent Heather Wilson over New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, her Democratic challenger in this hotly-contested Democratic-leaning district in metropolitan Albuquerque. If the Democrats weren't winning in this race, I told myself, they wouldn't be winning elsewhere in the country. Thankfully, Madrid now seems to have the momentum and polls trending her way. I'm now expecting she'll prevail in this contest, once again no thanks to the widely-hyped surge in "Latino voters" that simply hasn't happened. Prediction: Madrid by 3. (+11 for Dems)
New York, District 3--I never took seriously the challenge by Democrat Dave Meijas to Long Island's last-standing Republican, long-time incumbent Peter King, until recent poll numbers showed Meijas nipping at King's heels. I also never took seriously this long-advertised premise of Democrats sweeping multiple Republican-held House districts in New York. King's apparently vulnerability could prove wrong because if King is in trouble in New York, most other Republicans surely are as well. Nonetheless, I expect King will prevail as his district continues to lean Republican. Prediction: King by 7.
New York, District 19--Republican incumbent Sue Kelly from the northern exurbs of New York City was expected to prevail because the crowded Democratic primary field would leave a Dem nominee with limited funds and plenty of critics. The nominee ended up being musician John Hall, who doesn't strike me as a top-tier candidate. He'll likely get closer to Kelly than her usual opponents do, simply because of the Democratic tide this year, but he'll come well short of unseating her. Prediction: Kelly by 11.
New York, District 20--I've always scratched my head why Democrats think thought this district in northeastern New York, one of the state's most reliably Republican, was seriously ripe for a takeover. The Dems do have a strong and attractive candidate in Kirsten Gillibrand, but she does not seem to have convinced voters that Republican incumbent John Sweeney deserves to get the heave-ho. In the end, I suspect the Dems will be sorry they wasted so many resources here. Prediction: Sweeney by 9.
New York, District 24--This was the only top-tier pick-up opportunity for Democrats in New York pre-Mark Foley in this central New York open seat vacated by Sherwood Boehlert, one of the last of the true Rockefeller Republicans. Even though this district leans narrowly GOP, this is not a good year to be trying to win an open seat in New York as a Republican. I was skeptical of our chances here early on, but recent polling data shows Democrat Mike Arcuri pulling ahead of GOP nominee Ray Meier. This is by no means a slam dunk, but I'm leaning towards Arcuri. Prediction: Arcuri by 4. (+12 for Dems)
New York, District 25--This Syracuse-area district is New York's bluest district held by a Republican in the House, but that doesn't mean 18-year incumbent James Walsh will be going down easy. Democrat Dan Maffei has the best-case scenario if there ever was one to take out Walsh, but I don't see it happening. Prediction: Walsh by 7.
New York, District 26--A month ago, I laughed at Democrats hopes of taking down NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds, long-tim Republican incumbent from suburban Buffalo and Niagara Falls. Then a poll was released showing Reynolds with a scant two-point lead over Democratic challenger Jack Davis, and I began to reconsider. Then, Reynolds got wrapped up as a direct culprit in the Mark Foley cover-up, and his poll numbers dropped like a rock. At this point, Reynolds look to be an almost certain casualty of the scandal, and was already more vulnerable than I had thought. Prediction: Davis by 7. (+13 for Dems)
New York, District 29--Conservative one-term Republican Randy Kuhl would be hard-pressed to win re-election most places in New York, particularly up against a solid Democratic challenger like Air Force pilot and Iraq war veteran Eric Massa, but this is New York's most Republican district, located in the state's largely rural southwestern corner, and every indication is that Kuhl will pull out a modest victory. Prediction: Kuhl by 7.
North Carolina, District 8--One race I have long thought was worthy of more attention than it was getting is this blue-collar district in southeastern North Carolina, currently represented by Republican Robin Hayes, whose high-profile flip-flop over CAFTA has residents in this working-class textile area fuming mad. Hayes also has a strong challenger in Democrat Larry Kissell, who has run an effective, unorthodox campaign on the cheap. In the end, I expect Kissell will fall just short, mainly because of the cultural concerns of conservative voters regarding the prospect of a Democratic House. You can bet many voters in Kannapolis and Fayetteville will be holding their noses as they vote for Hayes though. Prediction: Hayes by 3.
North Carolina, District 11--All the polls show Democratic challenger and former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler ahead of Republican incumbent Charles Taylor in this conservative district on the far west side of North Carolina, but Taylor always seems to close well by playing the same hand that all Republicans seem to play against Democrats in the South. This is a tough call, but ultimately, I'm betting on anti-liberal advertising blitz by Taylor and the GOP will drag him across the finish line by a nose. Prediction: Taylor by 2.
Ohio, District 1--A race that wasn't even on my radar screen six months ago, I'm now increasingly optimistic about Democrat John Cranley's bid to unseat Republican incumbent Steve Chabot in this divided district, gerrymandered to dilute Democratic Cincinnati with very Republican suburbs to its north. The perfect storm of corruption scandals in Ohio will probably take down Chabot if African-American turnout is robust. Prediction: Cranley by 2. (+14 for Dems)
Ohio, District 2--The dreadful Republican incumbent Jean Schmidt was narrowly elected in a special election is this ruby red district in suburban Cincinnati, but was expected to have an easier time this fall without Democratic boy wonder Paul Hackett challenging her. But it appears Schmidt is universally weak as her opponent this cycle, Victoria Wulsin, is either tied with Schmidt or slightly ahead in most polls. Much as I'd love to see this glorified cafeteria lady sent back to Clermont County, I fear the nearly 2-1 Republican advantage in her district will drag her across the finish line on election night much like it did in the special election last summer. Prediction: Schmidt by 4.
Ohio, District 6--After all the interesting detours and raised GOP expectations about winning this culturally conservative, blue-collar district in southeastern Ohio being vacated by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland, the race stands pretty much where I expected it to stand last year at this time......with Democrat Charlie Wilson sitting on a comfortable lead over Republican challenger Chuck Blasdel. Wilson's idiotic signature petition blunder last spring was widely expected to doom his campaign, but ultimately helped him by raising his name recognition months before his opponent was able to get into the spotlight. Overall, Wilson should win comfortably. Prediction: Wilson by 11.
Ohio, District 12--There's some speculation that Columbus area GOP incumbent Pat Tiberi could be vulnerable to Democratic challenger Bob Shamansky, but get real. The guy is frickin' 78 years old. Non-incumbents are never able to begin political careers at age 78. Tiberi will win easily. Prediction: Tiberi by 15.
Ohio, District 13--It was an always an extreme longshot for the Republicans to takeover this blue-collar Akron-area district currently held by Democrat Sherrod Brown, who's running for the Senate. However, the GOP put their best foot forward running Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, the only possible candidate who could win in this district. Perhaps in a Republican year, Foltin would be competitive, but this is not a competitive year for Republicans, and Democrat Betty Sutton will surely score a decisive victory, holding Brown's seat for the donks. Prediction: Sutton by 12.
Ohio, District 15--Last year at this time, I was one of the only horserace analysts bullish on the prospect of unseating high-ranking House Republican and CAFTA flip-flopper Deborah Pryce from her Democratic-trending Columbus-area district. Top-tier Democratic candidate Mary Jo Kilroy had just entered the race and generated some buzz, but few thought Pryce was seriously beatable. Twelve months later, Pryce in the race of her life, with some polls showing her trailing and the momentum clearly in Kilroy's corner. I think Kilroy will take her down. Prediction: Kilroy by 2. (+15 for Dems)
Ohio, District 18--As I said last month when crowning Republican Bob Ney as September's GOP Asshat of the Month, if Ney had admitted his guilt and resigned immediately rather than lie to his consituents by continuing to profess his innocence through his primary victory, Republicans would have a different horse in this race and would most likely win this heavily Republican district in November against lackluster Democratic challenger Zack Space. Since Ney did everything wrong and is now headed to prison, voters seem unlikely to reward Ney's handpicked Republican successor Joy Padgett with his seat in Congress. Space wins by default, but I'll take it. Prediction: Space by 6. (+16 for Dems)
Pennsylvania, District 4--This race is hardly a top-tier prospect for Democrats, but Republican Melissa Hart is rumored to be potentially vulnerable in her heavily blue-collar district in the northern suburbs of Pittsburgh and Beaver Valley region of western PA. The fact that I don't even know the name of Hart's Democratic opponent is not promising for his/her chances, however. Prediction: Hart by 10.
Pennsylvania, District 6--Long considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country due to his thin victory margins in previous runs and his Democratic-trending district in the western suburbs of Philadelphia, Jim Gerlach probably will lose to Democratic challenger Lois Murphy, but it isn't a foregone conclusion as the Democrats may have hoped it would be last year at this time. A couple of polls (though potentially outliers) suggest Gerlach still could pull this out, although I'm thinking the odds are now stacked heavily against him. Prediction: Murphy by 3 (+17 Dems)
Pennsylvania, District 7--Last year at this time, moonbat conservative Curt Weldon was not considered to be imminently vulnerable, even though his district in the southwestern suburbs of Philly has been trending very strongly Democrat in recent years. My what a difference a year makes. Weldon has made a handful of silly gaffes and faces a strong opponent in military Democrat Joe Sestak. Having a top-tier challenger has helped expose some of the more outrageous comments and actions Weldon has been known to make in recent years. Adding insult to injury, Weldon now faces criminal investigations for possible corruption three weeks before the election. I feel safe in predicting it will be the nail in Weldon's coffin. Prediction: Sestak by 5. (+18 Dems)
Pennsylvania, District 8--Iraq war veteran Patrick Murphy seemed like a such a strong candidate last year at this time, and still does. One-term conservative Republican Mike Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, seemed like such a weak incumbent, particularly with his district in the northern Philly suburbs having voted for John Kerry and trending undeniably Democratic. But for whatever reason, the conventional wisdom and all the polls suggest Fitzpatrick has the advantage. In a massive Democratic sweep, Murphy could still win, but I'm betting against him at this point. Prediction: Fitzpatrick by 3.
Pennsylvania, District 10--It was pretty clear last spring when long-time Republican incumbent Don Sherwood barely won his party's primary against an unfunded neophyte challenger that he was in serious trouble. His marital infidelity and charges of mistress-choking aren't sitting well with the conservative voters of his rural, northeastern Pennsylvania district, which has always been strongly and reliably Republican. The fact this his Democratic opponent is an articulate, plainspoken war veteran has only managed to put Sherwood further on the ropes, as all polls indicate. Sherwood is finished. Prediction: Carney by 5. (+19 Dems)
South Carolina, District 5--The Republicans didn't have very good timing in their efforts to unseat John Spratt, one of the last remaining blue-dog Democrats consistently winning in heavily Republican districts in the South. GOP state legislator Greg Norman would have had a great chance to topple Spratt in 2002 or 2004, but it seems very unlikely to happen now. At this point, this race is not even on the radar screens of most horserace analysts. Prediction: Spratt by 10.
Tennessee, District 9--I have a really bad feeling about this overwhelmingly Democratic seat in the city of Memphis vacated by Senate candidate Harold Ford, Jr. Democratic candidate Steve Cohen is a white man in a district that's nearly two-thirds African-American (probably more than that now with all the Hurricane Katrina refugees that have settled there). Cohen won a crowded primary field where the black candidates divided their allegiances to several black candidates. Cohen doesn't face a serious challenge from the Republican candidate, but rather an independent candidate, none other than Harold Ford, Jr's brother. I don't know anything about Ford's brother as a candidate, or if he intends to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, but I'd prefer not to learn the hard way. My guess is Cohen wins, but I fear the Democratic Party isn't taking seriously the racial dynamic of this contest. Prediction: Cohen by 5.
Texas, District 17--Last week at this time, I would have predicted Chet Edwards as a Democratic casualty....the only one of this cycle. His Central Texas district is overwhelmingly Republican and I had serious doubts whether he could topple Van Taylor, a candidate who has his flaws, but is far better than the 2004 opponent that Edwards narrowly defeated. However, a poll released last week showed Edwards with a huge double-digit lead that strikes me as impenetrable even if the margin is inflated. Looks like Edwards will be able to live on borrowed time a little longer in this district. Prediction: Edwards by 6.
Texas, District 22--Tom DeLay gamed the system one time too many and almost assuredly handed Democrats his seat in the western and southern suburbs/exurbs of Houston. Against any Republican but the indicted DeLay, Democrat Nick Lampson would have been hard-pressed to pull out a win, but the seat was likely saved for Lampson when a Texas judge ruled The Hammer's attempted candidate switcheroo as incompatible with Texas law. Now, the GOP is waging a longshot write-in candidacy for Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs that seems very unlikely to work. Lampson should win by default, but hopefully he's already planning how he'll hang onto this brutal seat in 2008. Prediction: Lampson by16. (+20 for Dems)
Texas, District 23--The Supreme Court's recent decision to toss out some of Texas' recent GOP-friendly gerrymander will have a serious outcome on only one race in 2006, the southwestern Texas district held by Republican Henry Bonilla which has now become majority-Hispanic and far more Democratic. I had heard former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez may run for this seat, and then heard he wouldn't. At this point, I don't even know the Democrat running against Bonilla, which doesn't bode well for the likelihood of a Democratic upset. Prediction: Bonilla by 13.
Vermont At-large--I was reasonably confident that one of the most liberal and anti-war states in the union would not replace Senate-bound Socialist Bernie Sanders with a military Republican, and the polls now seem to indicate that Democrat Peter Welch has the advantage over Republican Martha Rainville. It'll still be a closer race than many may have expected in Vermont, however. Prediction: Welch by 8. (+21 for Dems, officially)
Virginia, District 2--Democrat Phil Kellam is waging a much stiffer challenge to one-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake than anyone would have expected in Pat Robertson country (Virginia Beach). Polls are conflicting, but my money is certainly on Drake hanging on for a second term. Prediction: Drake by 4.
Washington, District 5--There's some buzz about Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark being competitive against one-term GOP incumbent Cathy McMorris in this Republican-trending, largely rural district in eastern Washington that was formerly held by Democratic Speaker of the House Tom Foley. Ultimately, however, I expect the buzz to buzz off on election night with a comfortable McMorris victory. Prediction: McMorris by 12.
Washington, District 8--Despite some early skepticism about her prospects, former Microsoft bigshot Darcy Burner has emerged as the real deal in her bid to unseat one-term Republican Dave Reichert in this swing district in the eastern suburbs of Seattle. Reichert maintains a high level of respect for his law enforcement tenure in the region, and I ultimately expect him to prevail by the thinnest of margins. Prediction: Reichert by 1.
West Virginia, District 1--One would think longtime Democratic incumbent Alan Mollohan would be in a world of hurt right now in his Republican-trending district in northern West Virginia, being under the scepter of criminal investigation and giving an appearance of guilt, but there's little indication that GOP challenger Chris Wakim has succeeded in turning the public tide against Mollohan. It'll probably be his narrowest margin of victory ever, but Mollohan looks poised to weather the storm. Prediction: Mollohan by 8.
West Virginia, District 2--Some early optimists thought Lex Luthor-lookalike Mike Callaghan was the Democratic candidate capable of unseating Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito in this GOP-trending district in central and eastern West Virginia, but for the life of me I can't see why. Prediction: Capito by 18.
Wisconsin, District 8--This open seat in northeastern Wisconsin is vacated by Republican Mark Green, who's running for Governor. The district leans Republican, but polls indicate a tick-tight race between Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican John Gard. Much as I'd love to be optimistic and go with Kagen, the combination of the district's GOP tilt and the potential coattails of gubernatorial candidate Green strikes me as too formidable of an obstacle. Prediction: Gard by 3.
Wyoming At-large--It's mind-blowing that this race between unpopular incumbent Barbara Cubin and Democratic challenger Gary Trauner is this close this late in the game considering that Wyoming went for George Bush with nearly 70% of the vote in 2004, but polls still indicate a tight race and Cubin's handlers have brought in national Republican operators to try to save her ass. Ultimately, I strongly suspect they will as the prospect of handing over the House to national Democrats would be tantamount to a sacrelige in Wyoming. Prediction: Cubin by 7.
A long list to be sure, but one with a much happier ending than I would have anticipated a couple of months ago. Like Kos himself, I've felt an undercurrent of pessimism about our chances for quite some time now and still feel that our national prospects are being artifically hyped by a media looking for a storyline. Nonetheless, the evidence is now pointing to an undeniable strong showing by Democrats, and I'm predicting they'll take the House. The next Congress will have 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans.
posted by Mark at 1:23 PM
5 Comments:
Me too.
Here are my current House predictions. Though I have at this point a +24 gain for the Dems and none for the GOP, I am not getting too giddy because a lot of these gains are too close to call. And of course some races will most likely change hands sometime in the next 3 weeks.
http://californianintexas.us/2006outlook/house.html
And I just found something very interesting...by Larry Sabato! The Repub strategy of scaring voters in competitive districts into seeing Nancy Pelosi as a "scary San Francisco liberal" is not working. Apparently voters may feel reassured at having a woman as Speaker of the House, a "mother of 5 with no apparent moral blemishes"...
http://www.insidebayarea.com/argus/localnews/ci_4486231
And if Phil doesn't win the governor race which is very likely, we Californians will most likely have consolation prizes; one obviously being Speaker Pelosi, and also some of our 33 Democrats will get to chair key committees.
A shift of power in the House would also mean that Rep. Henry Waxman of Los Angeles, known as an investigative bulldog, would take over the Government Reform Committee. He would have subpoena power to go after the Bush administration, pharmaceutical companies or other targets.
http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/local/15758962.htm
Henry Waxman...California's Eliot Spitzer...
I've long felt the GOP's strategy of holding up Nancy Pelosi as their Democratic bogeyman would not be particularly productive. It worked when the Republicans tried that stunt against Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy in the South, but Nancy Pelosi? The only people who know who she is are political partisans who made up their minds on which party to vote for in 2006 the day after the 2004 election. Fear of Nancy Pelosi, even with the tagline "San Francisco liberal" isn't gonna swing many votes against Brad Ellsworth in southwestern Indiana, try as John Hostettler did.
But at least with Pelosi, the GOP could get some traction with their fearmongering. Some Republicans are calling to expand their list of Democratic bogeymen to even lower-lying fruit, the House members who stand to get committee chairmanships if the Dems win back Congress. Do the Republicans really believe a single vote will swing their way by running against Charlie Rangel, John Conyers, and Alcee Hastings?
Worse yet, one conservative blogger from Minnesota whose site I frequent wants to see the GOP run against the Daily Kos. Can you imagine Conrad Burns seriously trying to disqualify Jon Tester's candidacy on the grounds that he has the support of Markos Moulitsas Zuniga? That would be loony even by Burns' standards.
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GASP! CA-50 is competitive again!!!!!
Here is the new Survey USA poll:
Bilbray (R) - 49% (down from 54 in the last poll
Busby (D) - 46% (up from 40)
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=57a4d8e9-a7a6-424b-b508-7cc9e162f755
From what I've heard, Bilbray is being investigated by a grand jury questions as to where he lives. (We were talking about this nonstop throughout the special election.) Will this bring a 2nd end to "Baby Duke's" House career? We'll see...
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