The 2008 GOP Dark Horse That Could Be Trouble
The 2008 Republican field for President is looking less formidable with each passing day. Mitt Romney is a shameless flip-flopper to the caliber that 2004's Massachusetts patrician candidate could have only dreamed of being. John McCain foolishly tied his credibility to a hypothetical "troop surge" in Iraq that is about to become a reality, and virtually nobody believes the policy will succeed. And Rudy Giuliani's support is a mile wide and an inch thick, leaving him nowhere to go but down once "values voters" in the Old Confederacy realize he's to the left of Hillary Clinton on the cultural issues they care about most. Meanwhile, the two conservative candidates that seemed most likely to bridge the divide between the GOP's values voters and robber barons--Bill Frist and George Allen--are both yesterday's news after the comedy of errors that was their 2006.
So who is the GOP left with that won't come out of the starting gate with two strikes against them? The roster of second and third-tier candidates produces only one name that scares me, and that's former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Granted, I don't know alot about Huckabee and he may well have some seriously liabilities, but what I do know of his personal and professional resume is noteworthy. Hailing from Arkansas, the South's last remaining Democratic state, Huckabee is also an ordained Baptist minister and a professed conservative with a modestly successful gubernatorial record. And unlike fellow conservative contenders Newt Gingrich and Sam Brownback, Huckabee doesn't come across as an extremist lunatic. As for Iraq, Huckabee will need a solid plan to be taken seriously, but has the luxury of never having to make a single vote in Washington on the war, thus keeping his hands clean.
A Huckabee nomination would probably avert the looming Republican Party civil war, as he would satisfy the evangelical conservatives in a way that McCain, Giuliani or Romney wouldn't, without frightening away the stock brokers in Greenwich, Connecticut, who fill Republican Party coffers with cash. He would all but guarantee a GOP sweep in every state south of the Ohio River, taking the real possibility of a Democratic victory in Arkansas away from either John Edwards or former native daughter Hillary Clinton. The significant evangelical vote in purple states like Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan would be certain to come out in full force if "man of God" Huckabee was their torchholder.
While it's easy to laugh off Huckabee's chances right now, remember how the low-profile Governor of Vermont came from out of nowhere to become the Democratic frontrunner by the fall of 2003? And you can be sure there are Republican strategists out there playing the same numbers game in their head as I am, and they could easily direct the party establishment to rally around Huckabee if current trends continue. The already embattled Republican Party desperately wants to avoid a civil war, and the nomination of either McCain, Giuliani, or Romney would likely give them one.
It's still too early to speculate too heavily on what will be happening politically next year at this time. As Howard Dean (and John Kerry for that matter) can attest to, things can change dramatically in just a few short weeks in primary politics. And that's why I raise a red flag about a potential Huckabee candidacy now. If the 800-pound gorillas start looking less and less scary, the ensuing vacuum at the top could alter the landscape on a dime, and whether the new man of the hour is Huckabee or someone else, the Democrats had better be ready for him when he comes.
So who is the GOP left with that won't come out of the starting gate with two strikes against them? The roster of second and third-tier candidates produces only one name that scares me, and that's former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. Granted, I don't know alot about Huckabee and he may well have some seriously liabilities, but what I do know of his personal and professional resume is noteworthy. Hailing from Arkansas, the South's last remaining Democratic state, Huckabee is also an ordained Baptist minister and a professed conservative with a modestly successful gubernatorial record. And unlike fellow conservative contenders Newt Gingrich and Sam Brownback, Huckabee doesn't come across as an extremist lunatic. As for Iraq, Huckabee will need a solid plan to be taken seriously, but has the luxury of never having to make a single vote in Washington on the war, thus keeping his hands clean.
A Huckabee nomination would probably avert the looming Republican Party civil war, as he would satisfy the evangelical conservatives in a way that McCain, Giuliani or Romney wouldn't, without frightening away the stock brokers in Greenwich, Connecticut, who fill Republican Party coffers with cash. He would all but guarantee a GOP sweep in every state south of the Ohio River, taking the real possibility of a Democratic victory in Arkansas away from either John Edwards or former native daughter Hillary Clinton. The significant evangelical vote in purple states like Ohio, Iowa, and Michigan would be certain to come out in full force if "man of God" Huckabee was their torchholder.
While it's easy to laugh off Huckabee's chances right now, remember how the low-profile Governor of Vermont came from out of nowhere to become the Democratic frontrunner by the fall of 2003? And you can be sure there are Republican strategists out there playing the same numbers game in their head as I am, and they could easily direct the party establishment to rally around Huckabee if current trends continue. The already embattled Republican Party desperately wants to avoid a civil war, and the nomination of either McCain, Giuliani, or Romney would likely give them one.
It's still too early to speculate too heavily on what will be happening politically next year at this time. As Howard Dean (and John Kerry for that matter) can attest to, things can change dramatically in just a few short weeks in primary politics. And that's why I raise a red flag about a potential Huckabee candidacy now. If the 800-pound gorillas start looking less and less scary, the ensuing vacuum at the top could alter the landscape on a dime, and whether the new man of the hour is Huckabee or someone else, the Democrats had better be ready for him when he comes.
posted by Mark at 3:58 PM
1 Comments:
That is exactly what I am afraid of. Huckabee is socially conservative enough to appeal to enough evangelical voters to win the primary, and he has come across as a moderate, even populist, on economic issues, enough to potentially draw enough Independents and Blue Dog Dems to win in the general. On top of that, he cannot be effectively linked to the Bush administration.
Another interesting fact, like the last Arkansas governor to win a Presidential race, Huckabee was born in Hope.
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