Rodriguez Wins???
Democrat Ciro Rodriguez has apparently unseated incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla by a comfortable and possibly double-digit margin in tonight's TX-23 runoff. I gotta say I didn't see this one coming. I know this is a "majority minority" district, but nonetheless expected the white cowboys to overwhelm Latino voters at the polls. It's too early to tell what specifically happened in this race, but it's amazing news for the future of Texas politics and I can almost hear the echo of Tom DeLay's bawling all the way up here in the Upper Midwest.
It's also a nice capstone to a wildly unpredictable political year where the Republican incumbents considered most vulnerable mostly survived and the Republicans considered shoo-ins three months before the election are now finding themselves moving back to Kansas and New Hampshire with their tails between their legs.
It's also a nice capstone to a wildly unpredictable political year where the Republican incumbents considered most vulnerable mostly survived and the Republicans considered shoo-ins three months before the election are now finding themselves moving back to Kansas and New Hampshire with their tails between their legs.
posted by Mark at 8:33 PM
3 Comments:
I won't speculate too much on this until more information is able. It was a nice surprise victory, but this is a "majority minority" district, which is not indicative on Texas politics statewide, particularly in regards to registered voters. Ultimately, I can't see Texas being a serious contender for blue state status as long as the oil barons are the movers and shakers in the state economy. Even a modest percentage of the Latinos will get embroiled in Texas' plutocracy/theocracy hybrid since it so thoroughly dominates the state's power structure.
We'll chip away in Texas, and without Bush on the ballot in 2008, we'll probably see a statewide contest more indicative of where the state's true political allegiance lies, but it is still likely to be decidedly red. A victory like this by Rodriguez does give me hope though.
This race was a big surprise for me too, since considering the kinds of voters likely to turn out (which are not necessarily indicative of the districts' demographics) I expected Bonilla to hold on.
James and I have been discussing how Texas would go in post-2006 statewide elections. Texas will still likely vote Republican in the 2008 Presidential and Senate race, though instead of giving the Repub a 2:1 win like 2004 Pres and 2006 Senate it will be more on the scale of 55-45 GOP. I heard that Perry may be so unpopular in 2010 he could drag down the party with him, potentially paving the way for Henry Cuellar to run for governor in 2010. And provided the Dems here get their act together they could possibly win another statewide office a few election cycles from now. Cuellar is too conservative for the likes of me, but if he's a strong contender who could possibly help the party regain strength, I'll support him.
The Republican bloodbath on the local level in Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, and Houston does give me some hope. If the Dems here really invest in the grassroots (similar to what I've preached about California Dems) and build a rural-urban (Dallas, Austin, Houston, San Antonio, El Paso) coalition, then they could make a comeback as soon as 2010, possibly electing another Dem statewide along with Cuellar.
Oh, and speaking of pickups in Texas, I heard that my old rep Pete Sessions (TX-32, when I attended UT Dallas) is being investigated for involvement with Jack Abramoff. This is a 55-45 GOP district (considering Sessions' 2004 and 2006 margins in the DeLay-mandered districts) and it may be possible for a Dem to pull it out. I don't think Frost will run again, but Will Pryor (Sessions' challenger this year) might. If he does, I will campaign heavily for him like I did for Frost in 2004 though I don't live in the 32nd now (though my boyfriend does).
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