General Election Predictions
Having seen the geographical battle lines formed in the contentious Democratic primaries, I feel as though I already have the information necessary to predict how the states are likely to go in November. I'm no longer convinced that Obama will be the Democratic nominee, even though he's still odds-on to get it, so I'll include hypothetical faceoffs for Obama v. McCain and Hillary v. McCain, in that order. I'll elaborate on some overarching themes after the predictions....
Alabama (McCain by 25, McCain by 28)
Alaska (McCain by 19, McCain by 46)
Arizona (McCain by 22, McCain by 16)
Arkansas (McCain by 26, McCain by 2)
California (Obama by 8, Hillary by 12)
Colorado (McCain by 4, McCain by 9)
Connecticut (Obama by 7, Hillary by 7)
Delaware (Obama by 3, McCain by 1)
Florida (McCain by 12, McCain by 7)
Georgia (McCain by 16, McCain by 19)
Hawaii (Obama by 17, McCain by 2)
Idaho (McCain by 37, McCain by 61)
Illinois (Obama by 17, Hillary by 8)
Indiana (McCain by 20, McCain by 19)
Iowa (McCain by 3, McCain by 8)
Kansas (McCain by 19, McCain by 29)
Kentucky (McCain by 36, McCain by 20)
Louisiana (McCain by 25, McCain by 20)
Maine (Obama by 6, Hillary by 4)
Maryland (Obama by 18, Hillary by 11)
Massachusetts (Obama by 5, Hillary by 16)
Michigan (McCain by 2, McCain by 2)
Minnesota (McCain by 2, McCain by 3)
Mississipi (McCain by 24, McCain by 27)
Missouri (McCain by 15, McCain by 8)
Montana (McCain by 22, McCain by 40)
Nebraska (McCain by 25, McCain by 46)
Nevada (McCain by 3, McCain by 5)
New Hampshire (McCain by 2, McCain by 3)
New Jersey (Obama by 1, Hillary by 7)
New Mexico (McCain by 2, McCain by 3)
New York (Obama by 10, Hillary by 18)
North Carolina (McCain by 13, McCain by 17)
North Dakota (McCain by 18, McCain by 39)
Ohio (McCain by 9, McCain by 4)
Oklahoma (McCain by 41, McCain by 33)
Oregon (Obama by 1, McCain by 2)
Pennsylvania (McCain by 5, McCain by 2)
Rhode Island (Obama by 6, Hillary by 19)
South Carolina (McCain by 17, McCain by 21)
South Dakota (McCain by 20, McCain by 35)
Tennessee (McCain by 30, McCain by 13)
Texas (McCain by 20, McCain by 23)
Utah (McCain by 40, McCain by 65)
Vermont (Obama by 14, Hillary by 9)
Virginia (McCain by 9, McCain by 13)
Washington (Obama by 6, Hillary by 3)
West Virginia (McCain by 34, McCain by 11)
Wisconsin (McCain by 3, McCain by 5)
Wyoming (McCain by 41, McCain by 62)
Total (McCain 348, Obama 190) (McCain 362, Hillary 176)
So overall, Obama would be a stronger candidate than Hillary, losing by a slightly smaller landslide due to victories in Hawaii, Delaware, and Oregon that I think would be denied to Hillary due to, respectively, anger towards taking away the nomination from the native son in HA, disenfranchising the substantial black vote in DE, and upsetting the youth vote in OR. If Hillary gets the nomination now through a superdelegate coup d' tat, millions of blacks and young voters will sit out the election, rendering her electability argument useless. On the other hand, the white working class, and Catholics in particular, will NEVER warm up to Obama, taking Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania off the table right away, and turning usual Democratic strongholds like Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey into nailbiters. And while Obama currently appears to have a lead in the Upper Midwest, that region will be the first to bail on him with the drip-drip-drip of pseudo-scandals/gaffes, particularly with an alternative as seemingly benign as McCain to fall back on, leaving Illinois as the only state not bordering an ocean that Obama will win in the fall.
As for McCain, he'll win seniors by a 25-point margin against Obama, and a 10-point margin against Hillary. And it's doubtful that his age will cost him a single vote this fall. The only people pounding on it will be youthful Obama supporters, which will trigger an even deeper backlash in favor of the senior citizen in the race.
For all the talk of how this election was a sure thing for Democrats, it never really was. As I said in last week's entry, Democrats only win national elections when it's by accident. Now matter how low Republicans may seem on paper, they always have the advantage due to their mastery of wedge issue demagoguery and identity politics segregation. Had we been in a position to nominate a slightly less controversial candidate than either of the two remaining choices, we would still most likely lose, but we'd less likely to face the Dukakis-style landslide on our horizon.
Alabama (McCain by 25, McCain by 28)
Alaska (McCain by 19, McCain by 46)
Arizona (McCain by 22, McCain by 16)
Arkansas (McCain by 26, McCain by 2)
California (Obama by 8, Hillary by 12)
Colorado (McCain by 4, McCain by 9)
Connecticut (Obama by 7, Hillary by 7)
Delaware (Obama by 3, McCain by 1)
Florida (McCain by 12, McCain by 7)
Georgia (McCain by 16, McCain by 19)
Hawaii (Obama by 17, McCain by 2)
Idaho (McCain by 37, McCain by 61)
Illinois (Obama by 17, Hillary by 8)
Indiana (McCain by 20, McCain by 19)
Iowa (McCain by 3, McCain by 8)
Kansas (McCain by 19, McCain by 29)
Kentucky (McCain by 36, McCain by 20)
Louisiana (McCain by 25, McCain by 20)
Maine (Obama by 6, Hillary by 4)
Maryland (Obama by 18, Hillary by 11)
Massachusetts (Obama by 5, Hillary by 16)
Michigan (McCain by 2, McCain by 2)
Minnesota (McCain by 2, McCain by 3)
Mississipi (McCain by 24, McCain by 27)
Missouri (McCain by 15, McCain by 8)
Montana (McCain by 22, McCain by 40)
Nebraska (McCain by 25, McCain by 46)
Nevada (McCain by 3, McCain by 5)
New Hampshire (McCain by 2, McCain by 3)
New Jersey (Obama by 1, Hillary by 7)
New Mexico (McCain by 2, McCain by 3)
New York (Obama by 10, Hillary by 18)
North Carolina (McCain by 13, McCain by 17)
North Dakota (McCain by 18, McCain by 39)
Ohio (McCain by 9, McCain by 4)
Oklahoma (McCain by 41, McCain by 33)
Oregon (Obama by 1, McCain by 2)
Pennsylvania (McCain by 5, McCain by 2)
Rhode Island (Obama by 6, Hillary by 19)
South Carolina (McCain by 17, McCain by 21)
South Dakota (McCain by 20, McCain by 35)
Tennessee (McCain by 30, McCain by 13)
Texas (McCain by 20, McCain by 23)
Utah (McCain by 40, McCain by 65)
Vermont (Obama by 14, Hillary by 9)
Virginia (McCain by 9, McCain by 13)
Washington (Obama by 6, Hillary by 3)
West Virginia (McCain by 34, McCain by 11)
Wisconsin (McCain by 3, McCain by 5)
Wyoming (McCain by 41, McCain by 62)
Total (McCain 348, Obama 190) (McCain 362, Hillary 176)
So overall, Obama would be a stronger candidate than Hillary, losing by a slightly smaller landslide due to victories in Hawaii, Delaware, and Oregon that I think would be denied to Hillary due to, respectively, anger towards taking away the nomination from the native son in HA, disenfranchising the substantial black vote in DE, and upsetting the youth vote in OR. If Hillary gets the nomination now through a superdelegate coup d' tat, millions of blacks and young voters will sit out the election, rendering her electability argument useless. On the other hand, the white working class, and Catholics in particular, will NEVER warm up to Obama, taking Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania off the table right away, and turning usual Democratic strongholds like Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and New Jersey into nailbiters. And while Obama currently appears to have a lead in the Upper Midwest, that region will be the first to bail on him with the drip-drip-drip of pseudo-scandals/gaffes, particularly with an alternative as seemingly benign as McCain to fall back on, leaving Illinois as the only state not bordering an ocean that Obama will win in the fall.
As for McCain, he'll win seniors by a 25-point margin against Obama, and a 10-point margin against Hillary. And it's doubtful that his age will cost him a single vote this fall. The only people pounding on it will be youthful Obama supporters, which will trigger an even deeper backlash in favor of the senior citizen in the race.
For all the talk of how this election was a sure thing for Democrats, it never really was. As I said in last week's entry, Democrats only win national elections when it's by accident. Now matter how low Republicans may seem on paper, they always have the advantage due to their mastery of wedge issue demagoguery and identity politics segregation. Had we been in a position to nominate a slightly less controversial candidate than either of the two remaining choices, we would still most likely lose, but we'd less likely to face the Dukakis-style landslide on our horizon.
posted by Mark at 9:20 AM
7 Comments:
Not everything will be like 2004 forever.
So I guess it's time for me to move to a country where my left-of-center views are more accepted. I have now lost faith in my country. And I am still having a lot of trouble finding work.
Mark, after the results in Indiana and North Carolina, there is no way Hillary is getting this nomination. I would bet $1 million on it.
sara, sorry to hear you're having a hard time finding work. I went through the same thing back in 2000when I graduated college. It was about a year and a half before I finally settled for a newspaper writing job. It'll all work out for you in the end, but like me, it may take longer than you had hoped. However, if you believe better options await you elsewhere in the world, I wouldn't hesitate to explore them as opportunities are no longer limited to the United States boundaries anymore.
Mr. Phips, I agree that Obama has the nomination secured at this point, but not before taking a humiliating 40-50 point beating in West Virginia and Kentucky in the next two weeks, which will reinforce the narrative that he "can't win working class whites". Barring an epic scandal, you are certainly correct that Obama is the nominee, which at this point can best be described as the best-case scenario out of two ugly losing scenarios. Perhaps the saddest aspect of this contest is that Obama has worked so hard to bridge the differences in America through the course of his professional career, but his candidacy now appears poised to further polarize the country along racial and age lines.
Mark, even if Obama loses the general election, he will still have transformed the Democratic party into a much stronger party. The African American and youth turnout he will bring in November will probably be enough to save some key Congressional seats like the Louisiana Senate seat, Jim Marshall's GA-08, and could help hold the governors mansions in North Carolina and Washington. He will also help Larry Kissel down in North Carolina's eighth, possibly pulling him over the finish line.
Obama and McCain can go fuck themselves. Hillary was the only decent candidate
Obama and McCain can go fuck themselves. Hillary was the only decent candidate
Post a Comment
<< Home