Another Issueless Campaign
The latest round of polls confirms my long-standing suspicion that the cult of personality will again likely help the Republican party snatch victory from the jaws of defeat this election season. Particularly after this long and bitter primary season, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have probably bruised themselves too badly to beat McCain in the fall. I knew the declarations of Obama "weathering the storm" in regards to the Jeremiah Wright controversy were premature, and my hunch was confirmed with the latest round of polling showing Obama slipping 10 points, now tied with McCain in the popular vote, which means an easy McCain victory in the Electoral College.
On paper, McCain should be a weak candidate, but he's been built up by the media as this freewheeling take-no-prisoners maverick for so long that it's stuck....and American voters will not unlearn that lesson no matter how much evidence is thrown at them and no matter how much deviation there is between McCain and the voting public on the issues. The reality is that McCain is every bit as hard-core as Bush on meat-and-potatoes issues, which makes me see all the more outraged whenever I hear Democrats threaten to vote for John McCain if their preferred candidate loses the primary. Such a decision would be the ultimate act of petulance and childishness, but we're a crybaby nation and I have no doubt that millions of Democrats would snuggle up to the enemy, perfectly willing to slash their own throats and the throats of their neighbors just to "show them" with a delusional, traitorous tantrum.
I think Obama supporters would be slightly less likely to vote for McCain than would Hillary supporters, but there would still be millions of them, particularly younger independent voters. For the most part, however, the threat coming from Obama being denied the Democratic nomination is disillusioned Obama supporters (particularly blacks and college students) sitting this election out if their choices are Hillary and McCain. And despite the latest chapter of the media telling us this thing is over and Obama owns the nomination, it's not even close to over...particularly with Obama's miserable, freefalling poll numbers this week. Furthermore, the fictional reports of a tightening race in Pennsylvania will prove completely unfounded as Hillary will win the state by at least 15 points on April 22, regaining momentum heading into a string of states where she'll get some of her biggest margins in the country (West Virginia, Kentucky). While it's doubtful that she'll win North Carolina, a solid win in Indiana will be devastating to Obama in the eyes of the still-up-for-grabs superdelegates, and the bad headlines assures us that the already plunging Obama will lose that much more steam in his numbers versus McCain.
With that said, Obama still has the odds of getting the nomination, and I'm still hopeful he will, if only because his candidacy will turn the entire generation of young Americans into lifelong Democrats even in defeat. But defeat seems almost certain at this stage in an Obama versus McCain contest. Older voters simply will not take Obama seriously, while conservative blue-collar Dems, particularly in the crucial Appalachian region, will go into the election believing Obama is a combination of unpatriotic, Muslim, and the modern-day equivalent of the leader of the Black Panthers. NOTHING will change their mind, especially if the opposition is running a nominee as artificially appealing as John McCain. And without the support of older voters and blue-collar Democrats from Appalachia, the three most crucial battleground states in the nation (Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida) will all go red in November.
But what happens if the economy continues to plunge? Will McCain's laissez faire, let-them-eat-cake worldview be a liability that puts either Hillary or Obama back in the game? And what if things continue to go as badly in Iraq as they have been for the last few weeks? Will McCain's never-say-die commitment to a permanent war provide an opening for the Dems to cut him down? Not a chance in hell! As long as the Democrats run either a black man or Hillary Clinton (the most polarizing American political figure since Joseph McCarthy), this will be an unwavering identity election that will completely undo any theoretical gains the Democratic Party has made in winning over converts in the last two years. Barring a litany of gaffes of epic proportions, independents and "I'll show them" Democrats will almost certainly give George Bush a third time through his geriatric proxy candidate McCain.
On paper, McCain should be a weak candidate, but he's been built up by the media as this freewheeling take-no-prisoners maverick for so long that it's stuck....and American voters will not unlearn that lesson no matter how much evidence is thrown at them and no matter how much deviation there is between McCain and the voting public on the issues. The reality is that McCain is every bit as hard-core as Bush on meat-and-potatoes issues, which makes me see all the more outraged whenever I hear Democrats threaten to vote for John McCain if their preferred candidate loses the primary. Such a decision would be the ultimate act of petulance and childishness, but we're a crybaby nation and I have no doubt that millions of Democrats would snuggle up to the enemy, perfectly willing to slash their own throats and the throats of their neighbors just to "show them" with a delusional, traitorous tantrum.
I think Obama supporters would be slightly less likely to vote for McCain than would Hillary supporters, but there would still be millions of them, particularly younger independent voters. For the most part, however, the threat coming from Obama being denied the Democratic nomination is disillusioned Obama supporters (particularly blacks and college students) sitting this election out if their choices are Hillary and McCain. And despite the latest chapter of the media telling us this thing is over and Obama owns the nomination, it's not even close to over...particularly with Obama's miserable, freefalling poll numbers this week. Furthermore, the fictional reports of a tightening race in Pennsylvania will prove completely unfounded as Hillary will win the state by at least 15 points on April 22, regaining momentum heading into a string of states where she'll get some of her biggest margins in the country (West Virginia, Kentucky). While it's doubtful that she'll win North Carolina, a solid win in Indiana will be devastating to Obama in the eyes of the still-up-for-grabs superdelegates, and the bad headlines assures us that the already plunging Obama will lose that much more steam in his numbers versus McCain.
With that said, Obama still has the odds of getting the nomination, and I'm still hopeful he will, if only because his candidacy will turn the entire generation of young Americans into lifelong Democrats even in defeat. But defeat seems almost certain at this stage in an Obama versus McCain contest. Older voters simply will not take Obama seriously, while conservative blue-collar Dems, particularly in the crucial Appalachian region, will go into the election believing Obama is a combination of unpatriotic, Muslim, and the modern-day equivalent of the leader of the Black Panthers. NOTHING will change their mind, especially if the opposition is running a nominee as artificially appealing as John McCain. And without the support of older voters and blue-collar Democrats from Appalachia, the three most crucial battleground states in the nation (Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida) will all go red in November.
But what happens if the economy continues to plunge? Will McCain's laissez faire, let-them-eat-cake worldview be a liability that puts either Hillary or Obama back in the game? And what if things continue to go as badly in Iraq as they have been for the last few weeks? Will McCain's never-say-die commitment to a permanent war provide an opening for the Dems to cut him down? Not a chance in hell! As long as the Democrats run either a black man or Hillary Clinton (the most polarizing American political figure since Joseph McCarthy), this will be an unwavering identity election that will completely undo any theoretical gains the Democratic Party has made in winning over converts in the last two years. Barring a litany of gaffes of epic proportions, independents and "I'll show them" Democrats will almost certainly give George Bush a third time through his geriatric proxy candidate McCain.
posted by Mark at 1:08 PM
1 Comments:
Isn't this the same post you have been posting over and over again, but using different words?
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