Which Democrat Will Lose to McCain?
The last four weeks have produced a pretty amazing turn of events in Presidential politics. Four weeks ago, the Democrats seemed poise to quickly nominate Barack Obama after his Iowa victory and phantom national momentum while divided Republicans were looking to have a brokered convention, unable to settle upon a gaggle of unacceptable candidates. That was then....now the Democrats are polarized between two artificially strong candidates while Republicans seem all but certain to nominate their strongest potential candidate, a guy would be tough to beat even if the Democrats nominated a challenger with as formidable of persona as John McCain possesses.
It's been a particularly tough week, watching Willard Romney losing the Florida primary on Tuesday and essentially taking himself out of the running as a serious challenge to McCain's inevitability, and then watching two candidates drop out on Wednesday....Rudy Giuliani, the candidate whose base was closest to McCain and whose absence stands to benefit McCain almost exclusively, and John Edwards, arguably the most electable of three electability-challenged Democratic frontrunners. And Edwards' departure really leaves his vote up-for-grabs, but polls suggest his supporters are now leaning to Hillary, inexiplicably, by a 40-27 margin.
I have had long-standing doubts about the prospect of America electing a black President, and those doubts have been deepened seeing how his candidacy is proving so racially polarizing even among the Democratic base. If Obama can't convince white and Latino Democrats to vote for him over the noxious Hillary Clinton, how on Earth will he convince independents to vote for him over their golden child John McCain?
Don't get me wrong. I'm an Obama supporter as of yesterday, but out of default. Much as I like the guy, it's just hard to imagine that the canyon's gap of experience between him and McCain won't prove devastating in a war time election should he get the nomination. Nonetheless, the "ceiling" of support for Obama is substantial, especially in a year where voters seem to be in a Democratic mood. But the odds of Obama being able to navigate his way through the dual minefields of experience and race and sustain it for a nine-month general election campaign against the most popular national Republican strike me as microscopic.
As for Hillary, even most partisan Democrats I know here in the Midwest either mildly dislike her or outright detest her....and her negatives have gone up even more now that she and "America's first black President" have slimed Obama so gratuitously. I often tell people that it'll take every wisp of energy in my soul to drag myself to the polls on November 4 if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee (but I will nonetheless do it since it would put people who I agree with on most issues in positions of power as opposed to Grover Norquist and Karl Rove). I'm thinking there are a whole lot of Democrats who feel the same way I do.
I'd give McCain 5-1 odds against Hillary in a national election.....and I'd give McCain 2-1 odds against Obama. I'm reasonably convinced the Republicans are gonna hold the White House next November. The only difference is that an Obama nomination would most likely not cost us the House. A Hillary Clinton nomination just might.
It's been a particularly tough week, watching Willard Romney losing the Florida primary on Tuesday and essentially taking himself out of the running as a serious challenge to McCain's inevitability, and then watching two candidates drop out on Wednesday....Rudy Giuliani, the candidate whose base was closest to McCain and whose absence stands to benefit McCain almost exclusively, and John Edwards, arguably the most electable of three electability-challenged Democratic frontrunners. And Edwards' departure really leaves his vote up-for-grabs, but polls suggest his supporters are now leaning to Hillary, inexiplicably, by a 40-27 margin.
I have had long-standing doubts about the prospect of America electing a black President, and those doubts have been deepened seeing how his candidacy is proving so racially polarizing even among the Democratic base. If Obama can't convince white and Latino Democrats to vote for him over the noxious Hillary Clinton, how on Earth will he convince independents to vote for him over their golden child John McCain?
Don't get me wrong. I'm an Obama supporter as of yesterday, but out of default. Much as I like the guy, it's just hard to imagine that the canyon's gap of experience between him and McCain won't prove devastating in a war time election should he get the nomination. Nonetheless, the "ceiling" of support for Obama is substantial, especially in a year where voters seem to be in a Democratic mood. But the odds of Obama being able to navigate his way through the dual minefields of experience and race and sustain it for a nine-month general election campaign against the most popular national Republican strike me as microscopic.
As for Hillary, even most partisan Democrats I know here in the Midwest either mildly dislike her or outright detest her....and her negatives have gone up even more now that she and "America's first black President" have slimed Obama so gratuitously. I often tell people that it'll take every wisp of energy in my soul to drag myself to the polls on November 4 if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee (but I will nonetheless do it since it would put people who I agree with on most issues in positions of power as opposed to Grover Norquist and Karl Rove). I'm thinking there are a whole lot of Democrats who feel the same way I do.
I'd give McCain 5-1 odds against Hillary in a national election.....and I'd give McCain 2-1 odds against Obama. I'm reasonably convinced the Republicans are gonna hold the White House next November. The only difference is that an Obama nomination would most likely not cost us the House. A Hillary Clinton nomination just might.
posted by Mark at 4:00 PM
4 Comments:
Hillary is going to screw this all up on us. This woman needs to be taken out and taken out fast. If she gets the nomination, I will vote for and volunteer for John McCain.
And I will start packing my bags with my boyfriend for Brazil.
Even if your in AmeriCorps Sara?
Moving to a foreign country over a presidential election result, in a country that is extremely centrist is very melodramatic. But I can't exactly except people who play around on the internet all day and night, like most people on these blogs, to be rational.
One more comment to add, the House of Representatives has the same chance of flipping as Rudy Giuliani getting the nomination. If anything, unless McVain gets a 40 state landslide, the Dems will gain in both houses of congress.
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