Senate Race Profiles
It's long past overdue for me to give some predictions and analysis for this fall's Senate races. On a Presidential year, I admittedly pay less attention to Congressional elections than I do in midterm elections. Beyond that, it seems like it took longer for the Congressional races to fully congeal this year than in 2006, and it's still kind of a tough read as to how many of them will go. So much depends on the turnout for the Presidential election, and the likely coattails (or countercoattails) each of the nominees bring with them. Nonetheless, here are my predictions on each of this year's Senate races as of mid-September....
Alabama--It's hard to understand why they even hold elections in Alabama anymore. The guy (or gal) with an (R) next to his or her name is the virtually guaranteed winner. That's particularly true of two-term GOP incumbent Jeff Sessions, who should cruise to a 2-1 margin over fourth-tier Democratic challenger Vivian Davis Figures. Predictions: Sessions by 32.
Alaska--As disgusting as it's been to watch a worthless culture war hack like Sarah Palin be lionized as some sort of reform crusader and role model for women in the past three weeks, the darkest irony of Palin's ascendancy to the national ticket has scarcely be discussed....her coattails in her home state could help re-elect both of the indicted GOP Congressional crooks that she's allegedly helped slay. Indicted veteran Senator Ted Stevens was behind by 13 points last month, but in the most recent poll has closed the gap against his strong Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. If Palin's coattails can't drag Stevens across the finish line for another term itself, expect voter disgust with the national Democratic Party running the state's reputation through the mud to try to take down Palin will likely get the job done. As much as Alaska pretends to be a frontier society of self-subsisting cowboys, it's the nation's most prolific welfare state. Democrats will be incessantly pointing that out....and the locals won't like what they hear. In much the way that Presidential ticket coattails helped the weak 2004 Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski swing to a sizable victory despite trailing in the polls leading up to election day, the most corrupt member of Congress (Stevens) will slip in once again based on his party's anti-corruption message. Prediction: Stevens by 4.
Arkansas--Amazingly, one-term Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor has no Republican opposition this year. That's pretty incredible for a Southern state, even if it is heavily Democratic Arkansas and Pryor being one of the Senate's more conservative Democrats. I'm rather surprised the RSCC couldn't twist newly minted national celebrity Mike Huckabee to jump into the race. He would have likely beaten Pryor. As it stands though, despite the likelihood that Barack Obama will lose by 20 points at the top of the ticket in Arkansas, Pryor gets a free pass to a second term.
Colorado--Two Congressmen are facing off to fill this seat being vacated by two-term Republican Wayne Allard. Narrowly favored is Democrat Mark Udall, who serves the liberal Boulder and Aspen areas of Colorado is the son of legendary Arizona Senator Mo Udall. Republican Bob Schaffer used to serve eastern Colorado in Congress before coming out on the losing end of the 2004 GOP Senate primary. Four years ago, this race would have been tough to call given the geographic parity and mutual advantages both candidates bring to the ticket, but demographics have been swinging decidedly to the favor of Democrats in Colorado since 2004. While a Schaffer upset is not unthinkable, it's hard to see how Udall can lose in the current political environment. Prediction: Udall by 5. (Dems +1)
Delaware--Democrat Joe Biden is running unopposed in his attempt to extend his quest for a seventh Senate term. Obviously, his presence as Obama's running mate complicates the situation, but the Democrats seem assured of holding this seat no matter what. I'm not sure of the condition of this year's Delaware gubernatorial race, but I have to suspect the Democrat is heavily favored in a year such as 2008. That means that if Biden becomes Vice-President, another Democrat will be appointed to fill his Senate seat for the next two years.
Georgia--It was six years ago that Georgia essentially became a one-party state. Both incumbent Governor Roy Barnes and incumbent Senator Max Cleland, both Democrats, were comfortably defeated. Beating Cleland was Saxby Chambliss, now running for his second term. I don't know much about Chambliss' Democratic challenger Jim Martin, but have heard he's not a bad candidate. But it'll take a miracle worker to win Georgia with a (D) next to his name, and I'm doubtful Martin has miracles on his resume. As is almost always the case Southern Senate races, particularly in Presidential election years with dramatic GOP coattails, the Republican candidate will close very well. Prediction: Chambliss by 14.
Idaho--The Democrats are running one of their few success stories out of Idaho in the past few years in Larry LaRocco. If ever there was a situation where a Democrat was capable of winning in Idaho, one would have to surmise that this was the time, with disgraced incumbent Republican Larry Craig leaving this open seat on a year where Republicans in general are poorly received. Nonetheless, GOP candidate Jim Risch is (I believe) the Idaho Lieutenant Governor and faced LaRocco for that post two years ago, easily beating him. Expect the same result this year. Prediction: Risch by 16.
Illinois--Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin made some controversial comments, albeit taken completely out of context, comparing U.S. troops to the villians of history back in 2005, and looked like he might have vulnerable. That clearly has not happened as Durbin is going for his third term with only the token opposition of Steve Sauerberg. With Obama's coattails on the Presidential ticket, Durbin will cruise by a 2-1 margin or better. Prediction: Durbin by 34.
Iowa--Every six years, potentially vulnerable liberal Democratic Senator Tom Harkin finds himself in a situation where he heads the Senate Agriculture Committee just in time to dole out ladels full of pork for Iowa farmers only months before his re-election campaign. It allowed him to smack down a strong challenge six years ago from Congressman Greg Ganske, who was stupid enough to veto the farm bill months before the election. Going for his fifth term, Harkin finally finds himself in a situation where he doesn't face a stiff challenge, and should thus cross the 60% threshold for the first time in his career against token GOP opponent Christopher Reed. Prediction: Harkin by 24.
Kansas--Republicans always win in Kansas, and such will be the case for incumbent Senator Pat Roberts seeking his third term against Democratic challenger Jim Slattery. Prediction: Roberts by 30.
Kentucky--There's a strange disconnect in Kentucky politics. The Democratic Party seems to be growing at the state level even as the national Democratic Party grows weaker every election cycle. For that reason, Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford seemed poised to give Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a serious run for his money in 2008. Now, the race seems less likely to be hotly contested. McConnell seems to have consolidated much of his base, and Lunsford will be forced to run on the same ticket as Barack Obama, who will be wildly unpopular in Kentucky, arguably the most racist state in the country. Obama is likely to lose by at least 30 points in Kentucky, making Lunsford already difficult job next to impossible. Unless McConnell melts down as badly as his colleague Jim Bunning did in the final weeks of this campaign, he should close well and secure another term. Lunsford's best hope is for a showing strong enough to compel Kentucky voters to give him a second chance in 2010. Prediction: McConnell by 15.
Louisiana--Ever since Hurricane Katrina, I've argued that Louisiana has become impossible terrain for a Democrat, particularly one like Mary Landrieu who isn't as conservative as former Democratic colleague John Breaux. Nonetheless, polls indicate that Landrieu MAY have gotten a break in that her challenger, Treasurer John Kennedy, who switched parties to the GOP to be able to run for this seat, has not caught on. But the thing about the South is that doesn't take much for a Republican candidate to be able to catch on. If Kennedy is able to fund some moderately competent ads, he'll close the gap considerably and could conceivably still pull out a victory here with a fiercely unpopular Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Even under ideal circumstances, I can see Landrieu hanging on only by the skin of her teeth in the new and whiter Louisiana. Prediction: Landrieu by 2.
Maine--I was all pumped up when I discovered popular Portland-area Congressman Tom Allen was challenging two-term incumbent Senator Susan Collins. The northeast seemed poised to purge everyone who had the scarlet letter (R) next to their name, and surely pseudo-moderate Susan Collins would be among that group, right? Not so fast say the voters of Maine. It appears they not only wish to stand by real-deal moderate Republican Olympia Snowe, but also have a continued affinity for the more conservative Collins, who leads Allen by double digits in every poll I've seen. I'm sure this isn't what Allen was expecting when he abandoned his House seat, but it looks like it's what he's gonna get. The race is bound to tighten a little bit considering how Democratic Maine has become, but I still think Collins prevails handily, probably more handily than she did against a much weaker opponent in 2002. Prediction: Collins by 13.
Massachusetts--While Democratic incumbent and former Presidential candidate John Kerry is certainly a shoo-in, his failed Presidential run seems to have increased a perception about him that's a bit stale. Republican challenger Jeff Beatty doesn't seem like a serious threat, but expect him to give Kerry his biggest challenge since William Weld in 1996. Prediction: Kerry by 28.
Michigan--Senate institution and long-time Democratic incumbent Carl Levin should easily trounce fourth-tier GOP challenger Jack Hoogendyk. The big question with this race is will Levin be able to help Barack Obama in the state? Prediction: Levin by 35.
Minnesota--It was still August and the sleaze factor was already off the charts in this Minnesota Senate race pitting former comedian and unimaginably weak candidate Al Franken against slick Norm Coleman, the accidental one-term incumbent who won six years ago because the badly bungled memorial celebration for Senator Paul Wellstone left a poor taste in the mouths of independent voters. The race right now stands too close to call, with Coleman holding a narrow lead in most polls, but with dark horse independent candidate (and briefly, former Senator) Dean Barkley polling in the double digits and rising based largely on the absurd nastiness between Franken and Coleman. The fact that Barkley will participate in the televised debates makes me give him at least a one-in-five chance of pulling off an upset here. But for now, I'll stick with conventional wisdom and predict the right-leaning indepedents stay with Coleman. What a tremendous lost opportunity for Democrats. Prediction: Coleman by 5.
Mississippi--Virtually every Democrat in America was hoping that Republican elder statesman Thad Cochran would retire and give Democrats a chance at picking up a seat in this most hostile terrain. Their plans were dashed when Cochran announced he was seeking another term. He'll easily lay waste to Democratic challenger Erik Fleming. Prediction: Cochran by 36.
Mississippi #2--Thad Cochran may not have retired, but the Dems still got their chance to try to run a competitive race and pick off a Senate seat in the brutal turf that is Mississippi, the most racially polarized state in America by leaps and bounds, after Trent Lott announced his surprise retirement last winter and his seat was temporarily filled by Republican Congressman Roger Wicker. The Democrats tried to recruit popular former Attorney General Mike Moore, but he said nothing doing, so they settled for their second best candidate, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Winning as a Democrat statewide in Mississippi is brutally difficult, but Musgrove pulled it off, and judging from the first-rate ad he's running this year, should give the Dems a fighting chance against his opponent Wicker. The presence of Barack Obama on the ticket should cut both ways for Musgrove. It'll increase black turnout which will help Musgrove, but it will also likely decrease the number of whites willing to vote for a Democrat. In the end, Wicker is very likely to win and should close strongly as all Republicans do in the South, but it won't be for lack of a strong effort by Musgrove. Prediction: Wicker by 9.
Montana--If only one Democrat in America was able to survive this cycle, it would be Montana's moderate incumbent Max Baucus. It's not so much that Baucus is universally loved in Montana, even though he was nonetheless likely to win no matter who the GOP ran against him, but who could have imagined the accidental winner of the Republican primary would be a perennial candidate named Bob Kelleher who in the past has run with the Democrats, the Green Party, and even the Socialists. Kelleher is well to the left of Baucus on near every issue (the man favors gun control....in Montana!!!) and will likely motivate even most "real Republicans" to hold their nose and vote for "the conservative candidate" Baucus. Prediction: Baucus by 54.
Nebraska--Former Republican Governor and Ag Secretary Mike Johanns is the favorite in this open seat vacated by maverick Republican Chuck Hagel, but the only thing he has going for him is his familiarity among Nebraska voters. The Democrats have a tremendously appealing young challenger named Scott Kleeb, who waged a helluva effort two years ago in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in the country in western Nebraska. Kleeb hasn't caught on yet, but I'm not ruling out the possibility that he still could. You have to figure that Kleeb is vastly overperforming traditional Democratic numbers in uber-conservative NE-03 based on his familiarity in that part of the state. That means if he can run some well-received ads targeted to younger voters in Lincoln and Omaha where he's less well-known, it's entirely possible he could come out of nowhere and score a surprise victory much like Chuck Hagel did 12 years ago. It's odds-against given how tough of a state for Democrats Nebraska is and how little time is left to take on the Goliath known as Johanns, but it's still the sleeper race I think is most likely to dramatically change shape in the next seven weeks. For now though, I have to give significant odds to Johanns. Prediction: Johanns by 9.
New Hampshire--In a rematch of the 2002 contest, one-term incumbent Republican John Sununu will again face off against former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu prevailed in a Republican year last time, but New Hampshire had trended decidedly blue since then. Polls are erratic, but even the most pessimistic for Democrats still show Shaheen with a lead. The optimistic polls show her leading by double digits. One gets the feeling that the GOP has left Sununu for dead. A comeback is not completely out of the question, but I certainly sense that Shaheen has the advantage here. Prediction: Shaheen by 6. (Dems +2)
New Jersey--As is the case every cycle, New Jersey looks like it at least has the potential to be competitive with geriatric incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg making yet another run. Polls show Lautenberg leading, but not by much considering his challenger is perennial GOP also-ran Dick Zimmer, who appears to be addicted to losing. If Tom Kean, Jr., was making another go at this seat, we might have a race on our hands, but it seems like New Jersey will continue to be the "great white whale" that Republicans can never seem to catch. Prediction: Lautenberg by 9.
New Mexico--Republican Pete Domenici is retiring, leaving another golden pickup opportunity for Democrats. Democrats are running Santa Fe-area Congressman Tom Udall (yes, another in the long line of Udall Mormons) and caught a break when center-right Republican Heather Wilson was defeated in the primary by the most orthodox conservative, Congressman Steve Pearce. Polls show Udall with a decisive lead as it's unlikely a candidate as conservative as Pearce would be able to win statewide in New Mexico in an election year as tough as this one. Barring a huge game-changer, Udall will snag this race from the Republicans jaws. Prediction: Udall by 7. (Dems +3)
North Carolina--Polls are erratic but most are surprisingly close in the race to unseat one-term Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. The Democrats have an attractive and worthy challenger in Kay Hagan who is putting up much more of a fight than anyone expected in what appears to be a state moving quite rapidly to the left. Nonetheless, I think the "Old South" will prevail at least one more time to bring a posthumous smile to face of fallen right-wing icon Jesse Helms. Keep in mind that Erskine Bowles was leading at this point in his 2004 Senate race and went onto lose by five points when the national Democratic Party was used to bludgeon him to death. With Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, I anticipate something similar happening to Hagan this year and that Dole, weak as she otherwise is, will close well and sneak by with a semi-comfortable win. Prediction: Dole by 6.
Oklahoma--In most places in the country, this race would be a slam-dunk. Appealing and youthful Democratic challenger Andrew Rice would appear to be the dream candidate for Middle America in a Democratic year, where he faces controversial right-wing incumbent Republican Jim Inhofe who would not be electable statewide in too many American states. But this isn't just any American state....it's Oklahoma, one of the most hard-core enclaves of conservatism. Even in an off-year election, Rice would have his hands full in this state, but the likelihood is that McCain will get more than 70% of the vote in Oklahoma, meaning about 40% of McCain voters would have to cross over to vote for Rice downballot. Seems like an incredibly tall order. If Rice was challenging equally controversial Republican Tom Coburn in 2010, it might be a different story, but as it stands he has virtually no chance of winning. Prediction: Inhofe by 15.
Oregon--This race has turned to be much tighter than I ever expected. Gordon Smith is a moderate two-term Republican incumbent going out of his way to distance himself from the Republican Party, but is finding that is only helping him so much as polls have been tied for months between Smith and Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. This is perhaps the toughest race to call. While it's expected that Barack Obama will win Oregon big, tradition has been that Democratic Presidential margins in Oregon are fairly modest, so I'm not expecting a serious coattail effect for Merkley. With that in mind, it strikes me that just enough Oregon voters will find Smith benign enough to bring back for a third act. Prediction: Smith by 1.
Rhode Island--Long-time Democratic incumbent Jack Reed is one of the surest bets for re-election of anybody this year. Lightweight GOP challenger Bob Tingle wouldn't be able to take down Reed even in the most perfect Republican year...and this year certainly is not that. Prediction: Reed by 50.
South Carolina--Early on, it was expected that the most exciting part of this race would be in the primary as GOP incumbent Lindsey Graham, who has a bit of centrist-maverick streak, voted on the wrong side of the immigration bill last year in uber-conservative South Carolina. That, among other perceived indiscretions, was thought to bring a primary challenge from the right capable of taking down Graham. The challenge happened, but it flopped, and now Lindsey Graham is virtually assured of cruising to re-election by simple virtue of having an (R) next to his name and running in South Carolina. Democratic challenger Bob Conley will be a cakewalk for him. Prediction: Graham by 22.
South Dakota--The comeback story of Tim Johnson is quite amazing at multiple levels. Six years ago, he survived the closest Senate race of the cycle, beating back a strong challenge by Republican John Thune by only about 500 votes. Four years later, he had a serious stroke that seemed as though it was likely to cripple him. Amazingly, Johnson returned within months and appears to be back to his old self. Beyond that, he faces only token opposition in his fight to hang on for a third Senate term this year despite the bullishness of Republicans hoping to pick him off. As it stands now, Johnson seems poised to score his first comfortable margin of victory in three attempts. Prediction: Johnson by 16.
Tennessee--There are a handful of states that have gone against the tide this past decade and have trended more and more Republican even in the last few years as the nation overall has trended leftward. Tennessee is one of those states and it seems almost impossible to believe that just eight years ago Tennessee was considered a swing state and perhaps the most politically moderate state of the South. Put a folksy center-right Republican incumbent like Lamar Alexander on the ticket (with the opposition ticket headlined by Barack Obama!) and you have a landslide in the making. Democratic challenger Bob Tuke will be a gadfly that Alexander easily crushes with a single swat. Prediction: Alexander by 33.
Texas--Six years ago, Democrats were irrationally exuberant about the chances of African-American Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk to win the open seat vacated by Phil Gramm. Despite polls indicating a close race on election eve, Kirk got swamped by 12 points (a trend that should scare the bejeezus out of any Barack Obama supporter) by Republican Jon Cornyn. This year, Cornyn is seeking re-election. While Cornyn hasn't exactly lit a fire under too many Texans, he has an (R) next to his name which at least for now all but assures victory in Texas. Democratic challenger Rick Noriega comes with some decent buzz, but it seems very unlikely that Texas would be ready to elect a Latino Senator, particularly a Democratic one. Noriega will suffer a fate similar to Kirk. Prediction: Cornyn by 14.
Virginia--I've never understood why so many people are so impressed with former Virginia Governor Mark Warner. Nothing about him seems particularly dynamic, yet he was heavily hyped as Presidential material heading into this election year. I'm glad he didn't run as he his presence in this year's open Virginia Senate race has given the Dems about as close to a sure thing as they could ever hope to get in terms of a pickup opportunity. Republican elder statesman John Warner is retiring and the best his party could find to follow in his footsteps is another former VA Governor, Jim Gilmore, with a less celebrated legacy. Not a single poll has even showed the race close. Warner would have won here even with Virginia's old demographics, but with the state's population growth and rapid shift to the Democrats, the race shouldn't even be remotely close. Prediction: Warner by 18. (Dems +4)
West Virginia--Even though West Virginia has been trending decidedly Republican since 2000, its "institution Democrats" like Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller still seem incapable of defeat. Shelley Moore Capito may have had a chance to take down Rockefeller in a more agreeable Republican year, but 2008 ain't that, and Rockefeller's lightweight GOP opponent Jay Wolfe will be another pushover no matter how badly Obama hurts the top of the ticket in West Virginia (and recent polls indicate it may not be nearly as bad as expected). Prediction: Rockefeller by 27.
Wyoming--Republican incumbent Mike Enzi is running unopposed, if that gives you any idea of how Republican Wyoming is.
Wyoming #2--The death of GOP Senator Craig Thomas last year led to the appointment of Republican John Barrasso to fill his seat. Barrasso is a comfortable enough fit for ultra-conservative Wyoming that the Dems were bearish about the prospect of replacing him with a Democrat for the remaining four years of the term. Democrat Nick Carter is the chosen fall guy. It's hard to tell how good of a fight Carter will be able to put up, but it seems almost certain that no matter how good his fight, he still won't prevail victorious. Prediction: Barrasso by 17.
So there you have it....all 36 Senate races this year. I've predicted a net gain of four seats for the Democrats, although that number will drop to three once Joe Lieberman begins to caucus with the Republicans immediately after the election. I'm skeptical of the Democrats picking up very many more seats beyond the four obvious ones (although Oregon remains a distinct possibility) and am still nervous about Landrieu's chances in Louisiana. Whatever the case, the Dems should still come out of the 2008 election with a comfortable cushion to their Senate majority, which could prove tremendously useful considering a much less favorable Senate map in 2010.
Alabama--It's hard to understand why they even hold elections in Alabama anymore. The guy (or gal) with an (R) next to his or her name is the virtually guaranteed winner. That's particularly true of two-term GOP incumbent Jeff Sessions, who should cruise to a 2-1 margin over fourth-tier Democratic challenger Vivian Davis Figures. Predictions: Sessions by 32.
Alaska--As disgusting as it's been to watch a worthless culture war hack like Sarah Palin be lionized as some sort of reform crusader and role model for women in the past three weeks, the darkest irony of Palin's ascendancy to the national ticket has scarcely be discussed....her coattails in her home state could help re-elect both of the indicted GOP Congressional crooks that she's allegedly helped slay. Indicted veteran Senator Ted Stevens was behind by 13 points last month, but in the most recent poll has closed the gap against his strong Democratic challenger, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. If Palin's coattails can't drag Stevens across the finish line for another term itself, expect voter disgust with the national Democratic Party running the state's reputation through the mud to try to take down Palin will likely get the job done. As much as Alaska pretends to be a frontier society of self-subsisting cowboys, it's the nation's most prolific welfare state. Democrats will be incessantly pointing that out....and the locals won't like what they hear. In much the way that Presidential ticket coattails helped the weak 2004 Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski swing to a sizable victory despite trailing in the polls leading up to election day, the most corrupt member of Congress (Stevens) will slip in once again based on his party's anti-corruption message. Prediction: Stevens by 4.
Arkansas--Amazingly, one-term Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor has no Republican opposition this year. That's pretty incredible for a Southern state, even if it is heavily Democratic Arkansas and Pryor being one of the Senate's more conservative Democrats. I'm rather surprised the RSCC couldn't twist newly minted national celebrity Mike Huckabee to jump into the race. He would have likely beaten Pryor. As it stands though, despite the likelihood that Barack Obama will lose by 20 points at the top of the ticket in Arkansas, Pryor gets a free pass to a second term.
Colorado--Two Congressmen are facing off to fill this seat being vacated by two-term Republican Wayne Allard. Narrowly favored is Democrat Mark Udall, who serves the liberal Boulder and Aspen areas of Colorado is the son of legendary Arizona Senator Mo Udall. Republican Bob Schaffer used to serve eastern Colorado in Congress before coming out on the losing end of the 2004 GOP Senate primary. Four years ago, this race would have been tough to call given the geographic parity and mutual advantages both candidates bring to the ticket, but demographics have been swinging decidedly to the favor of Democrats in Colorado since 2004. While a Schaffer upset is not unthinkable, it's hard to see how Udall can lose in the current political environment. Prediction: Udall by 5. (Dems +1)
Delaware--Democrat Joe Biden is running unopposed in his attempt to extend his quest for a seventh Senate term. Obviously, his presence as Obama's running mate complicates the situation, but the Democrats seem assured of holding this seat no matter what. I'm not sure of the condition of this year's Delaware gubernatorial race, but I have to suspect the Democrat is heavily favored in a year such as 2008. That means that if Biden becomes Vice-President, another Democrat will be appointed to fill his Senate seat for the next two years.
Georgia--It was six years ago that Georgia essentially became a one-party state. Both incumbent Governor Roy Barnes and incumbent Senator Max Cleland, both Democrats, were comfortably defeated. Beating Cleland was Saxby Chambliss, now running for his second term. I don't know much about Chambliss' Democratic challenger Jim Martin, but have heard he's not a bad candidate. But it'll take a miracle worker to win Georgia with a (D) next to his name, and I'm doubtful Martin has miracles on his resume. As is almost always the case Southern Senate races, particularly in Presidential election years with dramatic GOP coattails, the Republican candidate will close very well. Prediction: Chambliss by 14.
Idaho--The Democrats are running one of their few success stories out of Idaho in the past few years in Larry LaRocco. If ever there was a situation where a Democrat was capable of winning in Idaho, one would have to surmise that this was the time, with disgraced incumbent Republican Larry Craig leaving this open seat on a year where Republicans in general are poorly received. Nonetheless, GOP candidate Jim Risch is (I believe) the Idaho Lieutenant Governor and faced LaRocco for that post two years ago, easily beating him. Expect the same result this year. Prediction: Risch by 16.
Illinois--Democratic incumbent Dick Durbin made some controversial comments, albeit taken completely out of context, comparing U.S. troops to the villians of history back in 2005, and looked like he might have vulnerable. That clearly has not happened as Durbin is going for his third term with only the token opposition of Steve Sauerberg. With Obama's coattails on the Presidential ticket, Durbin will cruise by a 2-1 margin or better. Prediction: Durbin by 34.
Iowa--Every six years, potentially vulnerable liberal Democratic Senator Tom Harkin finds himself in a situation where he heads the Senate Agriculture Committee just in time to dole out ladels full of pork for Iowa farmers only months before his re-election campaign. It allowed him to smack down a strong challenge six years ago from Congressman Greg Ganske, who was stupid enough to veto the farm bill months before the election. Going for his fifth term, Harkin finally finds himself in a situation where he doesn't face a stiff challenge, and should thus cross the 60% threshold for the first time in his career against token GOP opponent Christopher Reed. Prediction: Harkin by 24.
Kansas--Republicans always win in Kansas, and such will be the case for incumbent Senator Pat Roberts seeking his third term against Democratic challenger Jim Slattery. Prediction: Roberts by 30.
Kentucky--There's a strange disconnect in Kentucky politics. The Democratic Party seems to be growing at the state level even as the national Democratic Party grows weaker every election cycle. For that reason, Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford seemed poised to give Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a serious run for his money in 2008. Now, the race seems less likely to be hotly contested. McConnell seems to have consolidated much of his base, and Lunsford will be forced to run on the same ticket as Barack Obama, who will be wildly unpopular in Kentucky, arguably the most racist state in the country. Obama is likely to lose by at least 30 points in Kentucky, making Lunsford already difficult job next to impossible. Unless McConnell melts down as badly as his colleague Jim Bunning did in the final weeks of this campaign, he should close well and secure another term. Lunsford's best hope is for a showing strong enough to compel Kentucky voters to give him a second chance in 2010. Prediction: McConnell by 15.
Louisiana--Ever since Hurricane Katrina, I've argued that Louisiana has become impossible terrain for a Democrat, particularly one like Mary Landrieu who isn't as conservative as former Democratic colleague John Breaux. Nonetheless, polls indicate that Landrieu MAY have gotten a break in that her challenger, Treasurer John Kennedy, who switched parties to the GOP to be able to run for this seat, has not caught on. But the thing about the South is that doesn't take much for a Republican candidate to be able to catch on. If Kennedy is able to fund some moderately competent ads, he'll close the gap considerably and could conceivably still pull out a victory here with a fiercely unpopular Barack Obama at the top of the ticket. Even under ideal circumstances, I can see Landrieu hanging on only by the skin of her teeth in the new and whiter Louisiana. Prediction: Landrieu by 2.
Maine--I was all pumped up when I discovered popular Portland-area Congressman Tom Allen was challenging two-term incumbent Senator Susan Collins. The northeast seemed poised to purge everyone who had the scarlet letter (R) next to their name, and surely pseudo-moderate Susan Collins would be among that group, right? Not so fast say the voters of Maine. It appears they not only wish to stand by real-deal moderate Republican Olympia Snowe, but also have a continued affinity for the more conservative Collins, who leads Allen by double digits in every poll I've seen. I'm sure this isn't what Allen was expecting when he abandoned his House seat, but it looks like it's what he's gonna get. The race is bound to tighten a little bit considering how Democratic Maine has become, but I still think Collins prevails handily, probably more handily than she did against a much weaker opponent in 2002. Prediction: Collins by 13.
Massachusetts--While Democratic incumbent and former Presidential candidate John Kerry is certainly a shoo-in, his failed Presidential run seems to have increased a perception about him that's a bit stale. Republican challenger Jeff Beatty doesn't seem like a serious threat, but expect him to give Kerry his biggest challenge since William Weld in 1996. Prediction: Kerry by 28.
Michigan--Senate institution and long-time Democratic incumbent Carl Levin should easily trounce fourth-tier GOP challenger Jack Hoogendyk. The big question with this race is will Levin be able to help Barack Obama in the state? Prediction: Levin by 35.
Minnesota--It was still August and the sleaze factor was already off the charts in this Minnesota Senate race pitting former comedian and unimaginably weak candidate Al Franken against slick Norm Coleman, the accidental one-term incumbent who won six years ago because the badly bungled memorial celebration for Senator Paul Wellstone left a poor taste in the mouths of independent voters. The race right now stands too close to call, with Coleman holding a narrow lead in most polls, but with dark horse independent candidate (and briefly, former Senator) Dean Barkley polling in the double digits and rising based largely on the absurd nastiness between Franken and Coleman. The fact that Barkley will participate in the televised debates makes me give him at least a one-in-five chance of pulling off an upset here. But for now, I'll stick with conventional wisdom and predict the right-leaning indepedents stay with Coleman. What a tremendous lost opportunity for Democrats. Prediction: Coleman by 5.
Mississippi--Virtually every Democrat in America was hoping that Republican elder statesman Thad Cochran would retire and give Democrats a chance at picking up a seat in this most hostile terrain. Their plans were dashed when Cochran announced he was seeking another term. He'll easily lay waste to Democratic challenger Erik Fleming. Prediction: Cochran by 36.
Mississippi #2--Thad Cochran may not have retired, but the Dems still got their chance to try to run a competitive race and pick off a Senate seat in the brutal turf that is Mississippi, the most racially polarized state in America by leaps and bounds, after Trent Lott announced his surprise retirement last winter and his seat was temporarily filled by Republican Congressman Roger Wicker. The Democrats tried to recruit popular former Attorney General Mike Moore, but he said nothing doing, so they settled for their second best candidate, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Winning as a Democrat statewide in Mississippi is brutally difficult, but Musgrove pulled it off, and judging from the first-rate ad he's running this year, should give the Dems a fighting chance against his opponent Wicker. The presence of Barack Obama on the ticket should cut both ways for Musgrove. It'll increase black turnout which will help Musgrove, but it will also likely decrease the number of whites willing to vote for a Democrat. In the end, Wicker is very likely to win and should close strongly as all Republicans do in the South, but it won't be for lack of a strong effort by Musgrove. Prediction: Wicker by 9.
Montana--If only one Democrat in America was able to survive this cycle, it would be Montana's moderate incumbent Max Baucus. It's not so much that Baucus is universally loved in Montana, even though he was nonetheless likely to win no matter who the GOP ran against him, but who could have imagined the accidental winner of the Republican primary would be a perennial candidate named Bob Kelleher who in the past has run with the Democrats, the Green Party, and even the Socialists. Kelleher is well to the left of Baucus on near every issue (the man favors gun control....in Montana!!!) and will likely motivate even most "real Republicans" to hold their nose and vote for "the conservative candidate" Baucus. Prediction: Baucus by 54.
Nebraska--Former Republican Governor and Ag Secretary Mike Johanns is the favorite in this open seat vacated by maverick Republican Chuck Hagel, but the only thing he has going for him is his familiarity among Nebraska voters. The Democrats have a tremendously appealing young challenger named Scott Kleeb, who waged a helluva effort two years ago in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in the country in western Nebraska. Kleeb hasn't caught on yet, but I'm not ruling out the possibility that he still could. You have to figure that Kleeb is vastly overperforming traditional Democratic numbers in uber-conservative NE-03 based on his familiarity in that part of the state. That means if he can run some well-received ads targeted to younger voters in Lincoln and Omaha where he's less well-known, it's entirely possible he could come out of nowhere and score a surprise victory much like Chuck Hagel did 12 years ago. It's odds-against given how tough of a state for Democrats Nebraska is and how little time is left to take on the Goliath known as Johanns, but it's still the sleeper race I think is most likely to dramatically change shape in the next seven weeks. For now though, I have to give significant odds to Johanns. Prediction: Johanns by 9.
New Hampshire--In a rematch of the 2002 contest, one-term incumbent Republican John Sununu will again face off against former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen. Sununu prevailed in a Republican year last time, but New Hampshire had trended decidedly blue since then. Polls are erratic, but even the most pessimistic for Democrats still show Shaheen with a lead. The optimistic polls show her leading by double digits. One gets the feeling that the GOP has left Sununu for dead. A comeback is not completely out of the question, but I certainly sense that Shaheen has the advantage here. Prediction: Shaheen by 6. (Dems +2)
New Jersey--As is the case every cycle, New Jersey looks like it at least has the potential to be competitive with geriatric incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg making yet another run. Polls show Lautenberg leading, but not by much considering his challenger is perennial GOP also-ran Dick Zimmer, who appears to be addicted to losing. If Tom Kean, Jr., was making another go at this seat, we might have a race on our hands, but it seems like New Jersey will continue to be the "great white whale" that Republicans can never seem to catch. Prediction: Lautenberg by 9.
New Mexico--Republican Pete Domenici is retiring, leaving another golden pickup opportunity for Democrats. Democrats are running Santa Fe-area Congressman Tom Udall (yes, another in the long line of Udall Mormons) and caught a break when center-right Republican Heather Wilson was defeated in the primary by the most orthodox conservative, Congressman Steve Pearce. Polls show Udall with a decisive lead as it's unlikely a candidate as conservative as Pearce would be able to win statewide in New Mexico in an election year as tough as this one. Barring a huge game-changer, Udall will snag this race from the Republicans jaws. Prediction: Udall by 7. (Dems +3)
North Carolina--Polls are erratic but most are surprisingly close in the race to unseat one-term Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole. The Democrats have an attractive and worthy challenger in Kay Hagan who is putting up much more of a fight than anyone expected in what appears to be a state moving quite rapidly to the left. Nonetheless, I think the "Old South" will prevail at least one more time to bring a posthumous smile to face of fallen right-wing icon Jesse Helms. Keep in mind that Erskine Bowles was leading at this point in his 2004 Senate race and went onto lose by five points when the national Democratic Party was used to bludgeon him to death. With Barack Obama at the top of the ticket, I anticipate something similar happening to Hagan this year and that Dole, weak as she otherwise is, will close well and sneak by with a semi-comfortable win. Prediction: Dole by 6.
Oklahoma--In most places in the country, this race would be a slam-dunk. Appealing and youthful Democratic challenger Andrew Rice would appear to be the dream candidate for Middle America in a Democratic year, where he faces controversial right-wing incumbent Republican Jim Inhofe who would not be electable statewide in too many American states. But this isn't just any American state....it's Oklahoma, one of the most hard-core enclaves of conservatism. Even in an off-year election, Rice would have his hands full in this state, but the likelihood is that McCain will get more than 70% of the vote in Oklahoma, meaning about 40% of McCain voters would have to cross over to vote for Rice downballot. Seems like an incredibly tall order. If Rice was challenging equally controversial Republican Tom Coburn in 2010, it might be a different story, but as it stands he has virtually no chance of winning. Prediction: Inhofe by 15.
Oregon--This race has turned to be much tighter than I ever expected. Gordon Smith is a moderate two-term Republican incumbent going out of his way to distance himself from the Republican Party, but is finding that is only helping him so much as polls have been tied for months between Smith and Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. This is perhaps the toughest race to call. While it's expected that Barack Obama will win Oregon big, tradition has been that Democratic Presidential margins in Oregon are fairly modest, so I'm not expecting a serious coattail effect for Merkley. With that in mind, it strikes me that just enough Oregon voters will find Smith benign enough to bring back for a third act. Prediction: Smith by 1.
Rhode Island--Long-time Democratic incumbent Jack Reed is one of the surest bets for re-election of anybody this year. Lightweight GOP challenger Bob Tingle wouldn't be able to take down Reed even in the most perfect Republican year...and this year certainly is not that. Prediction: Reed by 50.
South Carolina--Early on, it was expected that the most exciting part of this race would be in the primary as GOP incumbent Lindsey Graham, who has a bit of centrist-maverick streak, voted on the wrong side of the immigration bill last year in uber-conservative South Carolina. That, among other perceived indiscretions, was thought to bring a primary challenge from the right capable of taking down Graham. The challenge happened, but it flopped, and now Lindsey Graham is virtually assured of cruising to re-election by simple virtue of having an (R) next to his name and running in South Carolina. Democratic challenger Bob Conley will be a cakewalk for him. Prediction: Graham by 22.
South Dakota--The comeback story of Tim Johnson is quite amazing at multiple levels. Six years ago, he survived the closest Senate race of the cycle, beating back a strong challenge by Republican John Thune by only about 500 votes. Four years later, he had a serious stroke that seemed as though it was likely to cripple him. Amazingly, Johnson returned within months and appears to be back to his old self. Beyond that, he faces only token opposition in his fight to hang on for a third Senate term this year despite the bullishness of Republicans hoping to pick him off. As it stands now, Johnson seems poised to score his first comfortable margin of victory in three attempts. Prediction: Johnson by 16.
Tennessee--There are a handful of states that have gone against the tide this past decade and have trended more and more Republican even in the last few years as the nation overall has trended leftward. Tennessee is one of those states and it seems almost impossible to believe that just eight years ago Tennessee was considered a swing state and perhaps the most politically moderate state of the South. Put a folksy center-right Republican incumbent like Lamar Alexander on the ticket (with the opposition ticket headlined by Barack Obama!) and you have a landslide in the making. Democratic challenger Bob Tuke will be a gadfly that Alexander easily crushes with a single swat. Prediction: Alexander by 33.
Texas--Six years ago, Democrats were irrationally exuberant about the chances of African-American Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk to win the open seat vacated by Phil Gramm. Despite polls indicating a close race on election eve, Kirk got swamped by 12 points (a trend that should scare the bejeezus out of any Barack Obama supporter) by Republican Jon Cornyn. This year, Cornyn is seeking re-election. While Cornyn hasn't exactly lit a fire under too many Texans, he has an (R) next to his name which at least for now all but assures victory in Texas. Democratic challenger Rick Noriega comes with some decent buzz, but it seems very unlikely that Texas would be ready to elect a Latino Senator, particularly a Democratic one. Noriega will suffer a fate similar to Kirk. Prediction: Cornyn by 14.
Virginia--I've never understood why so many people are so impressed with former Virginia Governor Mark Warner. Nothing about him seems particularly dynamic, yet he was heavily hyped as Presidential material heading into this election year. I'm glad he didn't run as he his presence in this year's open Virginia Senate race has given the Dems about as close to a sure thing as they could ever hope to get in terms of a pickup opportunity. Republican elder statesman John Warner is retiring and the best his party could find to follow in his footsteps is another former VA Governor, Jim Gilmore, with a less celebrated legacy. Not a single poll has even showed the race close. Warner would have won here even with Virginia's old demographics, but with the state's population growth and rapid shift to the Democrats, the race shouldn't even be remotely close. Prediction: Warner by 18. (Dems +4)
West Virginia--Even though West Virginia has been trending decidedly Republican since 2000, its "institution Democrats" like Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller still seem incapable of defeat. Shelley Moore Capito may have had a chance to take down Rockefeller in a more agreeable Republican year, but 2008 ain't that, and Rockefeller's lightweight GOP opponent Jay Wolfe will be another pushover no matter how badly Obama hurts the top of the ticket in West Virginia (and recent polls indicate it may not be nearly as bad as expected). Prediction: Rockefeller by 27.
Wyoming--Republican incumbent Mike Enzi is running unopposed, if that gives you any idea of how Republican Wyoming is.
Wyoming #2--The death of GOP Senator Craig Thomas last year led to the appointment of Republican John Barrasso to fill his seat. Barrasso is a comfortable enough fit for ultra-conservative Wyoming that the Dems were bearish about the prospect of replacing him with a Democrat for the remaining four years of the term. Democrat Nick Carter is the chosen fall guy. It's hard to tell how good of a fight Carter will be able to put up, but it seems almost certain that no matter how good his fight, he still won't prevail victorious. Prediction: Barrasso by 17.
So there you have it....all 36 Senate races this year. I've predicted a net gain of four seats for the Democrats, although that number will drop to three once Joe Lieberman begins to caucus with the Republicans immediately after the election. I'm skeptical of the Democrats picking up very many more seats beyond the four obvious ones (although Oregon remains a distinct possibility) and am still nervous about Landrieu's chances in Louisiana. Whatever the case, the Dems should still come out of the 2008 election with a comfortable cushion to their Senate majority, which could prove tremendously useful considering a much less favorable Senate map in 2010.
posted by Mark at 5:47 PM
10 Comments:
The 2004 map is not "unfavorable". Republicans picked off pretty much every seat possible in this class in 2004.
Mr. Phips, that's partly true. The GOP will be defending more seats than the Dems will in 2010, but if it's a Republican year, Ken Salazar will go, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas would go, and Harry Reid would probably also be in deep trouble in Nevada. If John Hoeven runs in North Dakota, Byron Dorgan might be sweating a bit as well. Dan Inouye is likely to retire in Hawaii, leaving popular Governor Linda Lingle well positioned to win an open seat there. Even Patty Murray, Russ Feingold, and Barbara Boxer could conceivably be vulnerable if Obama wins the Presidential election and America's next two years are as turbulent as most suspect they will be.
On the other hand, if McCain wins, the Dems could well have another robust year with Senate victories, likely picking up Specter's seat in Pennsylvania, Voinovich's in Ohio, and Bunning's in Kentucky, all likely retirees, along with Florida (Mel Martinez), and we'd have a fighting chance in Louisiana (David Vitter) and Oklahoma (Tom Coburn). Our prospects in the 2010 Senate races is certainly dependent upon the outcome of this year's Presidential election.
Anyway, do you agree or disagree with my overall assessments of this year's Senate races?
I agree on this year's races pretty much. My predictions are the same, picking off Colorado, New Hampshire, New Mexico, and Virginia, and holding Louisiana by the slimmest of margins.
As for the California Senate race in 2010, Boxer will likely be in good shape regardless of who's in the White House, since California voters are more partisan at the federal level than the state level. Right now, though of course it could very much change before November 2010, Arnold's popularity has been suffering in the aftermath of the state's budget crisis, and there's even a recall attempt against him, though most voters do not support this one. Arnold and Davis are not the only California governors that have faced recall attempts. Except for the popular George Deukmejian, each of them going back to Pat Brown has faced a recall attempt, though only the one against Davis succeeded.
Mark, Republicans have like no bench in Arkansas unless Mike Huckabee were to run. Salazar is in an increasingly Democratic state.
I agree with all of your predictions for 2008, except Alaska. I think Begich pulls that one out.
Also Mark, if popular governor Tony Knowles could not win against a Murkowski in 2004 in Alaska, I dont see how any Republican wins a Senate race in Hawaii.
sara, if Boxer looks vulnerable in two years, I wouldn't rule out a Schwarzenegger run. Beyond that though, you're right. The bench in Cali is pretty light.
mr. phips, in lieu of a poorly received Obama Presidency and Democratic Congress, the GOP wouldn't need a rock star to take down Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas. Huckabee would likely destroy her no matter what the electoral climate, but even a legislative backbencher could take her down in the right conditions.
And I don't pretend to know Hawaii politics, but the ease with which Linda Lingle won re-election in 2006 tells me her prospects at an open Senate seat would be very strong.
Mark, Republicans have absolutely NOBODY but Huckabee in Arkansas. Have you looked at the margins in the legislature?, its almost as Democratic as Massachussets. Possibly John Boozman could beat her, but have you looked at the guy? It looks like he fell out of a tree and hit every branch on the way down.
By the way, do you still think McCain will win the Presidency? Obama has seen a significant uptick in polls this week due to the Wall Street roller coaster, but I personally am very undecided in the Presidential race. If it had been Hillary against McCain, I would have bolted to McCain in a second, but since I really like Obama, im not sure. I just dont want Obama to be in there when the shit hits the fan and see the Democratic party get pasted the way they did in the 1990's due to Bill Clinton(although Obama certainly cares more about downticket Democrats than Clinton ever could).
Alot of nobodies took down institutionalized Democrats back in 1994, particularly in the South. Bill Frist came out of nowhere to crush Jim Sasser. George Pataki beat Mario Cuomo in the New York Governor's race. Four years earlier, the ultimate upstart Paul Wellstone laid waste to Senate rock star Rudy Boschwitz. The point is, in an offense year for a given party, don't rule out the prospect of a second or third-tier candidate winning a Senate seat nobody expected....especially in a state like Arkansas with an incumbent as weak as Lincoln could prove to be.
I still think McCain will win....fairly handily. He'd still have a lead if not for his fumbles over the financial crisis, and I suspect that with further turbulences of varying degrees in the weeks to come, the consensus among the undecideds will be to break for the "safe" choice McCain. My 90% odds for McCain still holds.
Would you really be able to vote for McCain? As far as I'm concerned, he's running a sleazier campaign than Bush ever did with Rove at the reins, and can't imagine you would reward McCain and his she-devil running mate. And while there will likely be serious consequences for Democrats in 2010 if they control every level of government, the Dems will be better positioned to leave a serious policy footprint with just two years of an Obama Presidency and a Democratic Congress than 20 years of Democratic Congresses and a Republican President. I can't understand how it in any way advances Democratic policy priorities to have the most powerful office in the country flamboyantly hostile to those policies.
Mark, after getting nothing from Bill Clinton but NAFTA in 1993-1994, I am not expecting much from Obama. The best he could do is appoint some Democratic judges in key states that could help influence redistricting in those states. Other than that, I am not expecting anything big and nobody should.
Just FYI, Wyoming Senator Mike Enzi is not running unopposed, though the result will be the same. Democrat Chris Rothfuss has been in the running since late March.
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