Final Calls on 2018 Senate Races
There are some political cycles where everything goes right for the party who ends up winning that cycle. The Democrats had that kind of year in 2008 when Obama won his first term, and fared almost as well in 2012 when Obama was re-elected. This year, with a nominally unpopular President in the White House and the entire government in the control of the Republican Party, the Democrats looked poised for the kind of political cycle where everything was supposed to go right...but instead everything has been going wrong for them in the most consequential weeks of the cycle. Trump has been getting one win after another with favorable reports with jobs and the economy, as well as a successful renegotiation of NAFTA for which even I have to give him some credit for pulling off. And then the GOP was able to bait Democrats into a Supreme Court fight that was fought over the divisive hot-button cultural flashpoint of the moment (sexual assault) which drove up Republican voter enthusiasm. But right when that Supreme Court fight started to fade from voters' memories, Republicans have now won the culture war lottery with a multi-thousand-person "migrant caravan" marching through Mexico towards the U.S. border. The Republicans could not have dreamed of a more perfect scenario for the lead-up to a midterm election two weeks away that is being fought primarily on red-state turf. Who knows exactly how this plays out....but it's hard to imagine it'll end well. I waited till after the "Kavanaugh bump" ended to make my final predictions, meaning I'm a week or so later than usual in an election cycle with these final picks, with more uncertainty than ever. Here goes...
Arizona--In the open seat to replace Republican Jeff Flake, Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema had been in the catbird's seat for months and seemed poised to defeat Republican Congresswoman Martha McSally and flip the seat blue. But Sinema's past as a far-left radical in her youth is producing a drip-drip of effective soundbytes for McSally to exploit and undermine Sinema's reinvention as a moderate. Most recently, some video has been dropped of Sinema saying disparaging things about Arizona voters in out-of-state speeches. Polling has been inconsistent in the weeks since but most indications are that McSally has drawn blood and Sinema is reeling. Sinema is still acting like she's leading in this race but I'm starting to doubt she is. There are a half dozen Senate seats on the knife's edge and this is one of them. If and until I see polling numbers that indicate Sinema has found her footing, I'm gonna assume a narrow McSally victory is forthcoming and the GOP will hold a seat that Democrats have considered as good as in their column since early summer. Prediction: McSally by 2.
California--For several months, the Democrat versus Democrat California Senate race seemed unlikely to be competitive. State Senator Kevin de Leon was just not catching on fire in his attempt to replace octogenarian incumbent Dianne Feinstein. That's still probably true but after Feinstein's controversial role in the Kavanaugh hearings, there's some speculation that de Leon has an opening. If de Leon can hold his liberal and Hispanic base, perhaps angry Republicans looking to vote against Feinstein can put together a coalition and take down Feinstein. Seems like quite a reach, but there's so little polling that I have no idea if de Leon has been closing the gap or not. Ultimately, however, I think Feinstein still pulls it out without breaking a sweat as I suspect if there are a huge wave of enraged Republicans, they'd be more likely to leave the ballot blank than vote for de Leon, who's further to the left than Feinstein. Prediction: Feinstein by 18.
Connecticut--Democratic incumbent Chris Murphy is poised for an absolute cakewalk against his invisible GOP challenger, rich guy Matthew Corey. I never expected this race to be competitive but it's such a foregone conclusion that Murphy wins in a blowout that I don't really have anything specific to say about it. Prediction: Murphy by 28.
Delaware--The real fight for moderate Democratic incumbent Tom Carper this year was the primary, where he was challenged from the left but ultimately prevailed comfortably. After getting the nomination, the general election will be a breeze for Carper against fourth-rate GOP challenger Rob Arlett. Prediction: Carper by 35.
Florida--Given how almost every close race seems to go to the Republican in Florida, particularly in midterms, I was an early skeptic of laid-back Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson's attempt to win a fourth term against well-funded and suddenly popular GOP Governor Rick Scott. But as this cycle began to develop into a Democratic wave, I figured Nelson might get a needed tailwind...enough to pull this out. There is scant evidence that that is happening even now in the last couple weeks of the campaign, and in fact Scott's raised profile during the recent hurricanes might be giving him a tick of momentum in the home stretch, all while Nelson is paying the consequences for a late start to his campaign generally and more specifically in letting Scott outflank him in his outreach to the Puerto Rican community which Nelson desperately needs to hang on to if he's to win. Suddenly, Nelson's best hope is a surge of African American voters expected to come out on behalf of gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum. What a strange world when the Bernie-endorsed Tallahassee Mayor under FBI investigation is being counted on to provide three-term Senate incumbent Bill Nelson the coattails needed to eke out a win. It could still happen, but I'm afraid the polling models will have to be skewed to undercount Democratic enthusiasm, and that's a fool's bet in the Sunshine State. This is a very close call at this stage but I'm afraid I've gotta go with Scott here. Prediction: Scott by <1 .="" br="" gop="" nbsp="" running="" total:="">
Hawaii--I was not impressed with the way Democrat Mazie Hirono acquitted herself during the Kavanaugh hearings, but luckily for her she's living in one of the nation's bluest states and there's unlikely to be any consequences. It's possible Hirono could lose some soft support but her "some dude" challenger Ron Curtis is not and never was positioned to put up a real fight against Hirono. Prediction: Hirono by 30.
Indiana--A few months ago, I figured the large number of battleground Senate races would see enough movement to one candidate or the other to make final calls easier, but that has not happened. Part of it has to do with far less polling than in the past, but even more so, the momentum that Democrats were starting to build in September was erased during the Kavanaugh hearings, and one conservative Democratic Senator who had to make a tough political choice was Joe Donnelly, the accidental Senator from 2012 who only got his job because then GOP candidate Richard Mourdock disqualified himself with a stupid comment about rape in a debate. This year's Republican challenger, state legislator and rich guy Mike Braun, isn't perfect, but hasn't made any unforced errors which is enough to make him competitive in the red-leaning Hoosier State. This race was expected to be a heavy lift for Democrats, but Donnelly appeared to have a lead in September. Polling since has been limited but indicates the race has narrowed, but with a narrow Donnelly lead within the margin of error continuing to hold. This is another race that's a tough call and the vagaries of Indiana laws probably means polling moving forward will continue to be minimal, so all I have to go on is gut feeling and the reliability of the polling models used so far as being reflective of the electorate we're likely to see. I don't have a strong sense either way of how this is going but I tend to think Braun might have the edge in the end. Prediction: Braun by 1. Running Total: GOP +2
Maine--If this was a traditional three-way race in Maine I'd be entirely confident that Independent Angus King, who caucuses with the Democrats, would win a solid uncontested majority, but Maine has implemented ranked-choice voting this year, and I still don't really understand how that works and how it will affect the final tally. I'm still entirely confident that King defeats both Republican challenger Eric Brakey and Democrat Zak Ringelstein, but I have no idea who to expect will finish second or how much closer the "second-ranked" candidate will get in the final margin than he would have with a traditional counting scheme...so all I can do is through out a guess....and hope this ranked-choice voting doesn't catch on and make my job that much more difficult. Prediction: King by 16.
Maryland--And another three-candidate race will transpire in Maryland where Democrat Ben Cardin is running for a third term and is certain to win handily. In 2012, Cardin won a three-way race with 56% and split opposition. I suspect his numbers will look about the same this year, but am not entirely sure which of his unimpressive challengers, Republican Tony Campbell or independent Neal Simon, will take home the second-place trophy. I'm guessing Campbell but no guarantees. Prediction: Cardin by 23.
Massachusetts--Last year I predicted that while Democrat Elizabeth Warren would get a second term, the numbers wouldn't be as overwhelming as many suspected as she's just never caught on with the more blue-collar voters of the Bay State. I went so far as to say if Hillary had won in 2016, Warren's seat would likely be a battleground. The fierce opposition to Donald Trump in Massachusetts has changed my thinking on that, however, as I suspect the supermajority of the state's voters will all vote for Warren over lightweight Republican challenger Geoff Diehl just to stick it to Trump. But I still don't see Warren as playing well in a Presidential race which she is clearly setting herself up for. Prediction: Warren by 27.
Michigan--Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow is like so many Dems in this Senate class and has benefited from lucky timing in that all four contests she's run in have been in Democratic years. Her fourth bid is the latest example as every indication points to a very good year for Democrats in the Wolverine State. Stabenow's Republican challenger John James is straight out of central casting as a candidate....a young black entrepreneur and veteran who is articulate and charismatic. But James picked a very bad year to run and has not found any momentum at all. I suspect if Hillary had narrowly won in 2016, this race would be going quite a bit differently. Prediction: Stabenow by 17.
Minnesota (A)--Two-term Democrat Amy Klobuchar has the number of the Gopher State, scoring blowout wins in both of her primary races. She won by 30 points in 2012, and while she has token opposition again in Republican legislator Jim Newberger who she was demolish, I suspect overall voter polarization since then may shrink her margin a bit this time....but wouldn't be surprised if she dominated just as strongly as last time. Prediction: Klobuchar by 25.
Minnesota (B)--In the special election to replace Democrat Al Franken, I've been a little nervous we could be looking at a sleeper race between appointed Democratic quasi-incumbent Tina Smith and state Senator Karin Housley, her Republican Senator, given that Smith is largely unknown and doesn't exactly leave much of an impression. But Housley's campaign has not been strong and polling is not giving much indication of an opening for her, while Smith will have an incredible wind at her back with Klobuchar and a strong Democratic gubernatorial candidate. I'm not fully conceding that Smith has put this race away yet, but it's getting very late for Housley to stage any kind of comeback. Prediction: Smith by 11.
Mississippi (A)--This is the uncomplicated Senate race in the Magnolia State this year, where Republican incumbent Roger Wicker is seeking a third term. His opponent is Democratic state lawmaker David Baria, who is a solid candidate for the Dems but Mississippi is just to Republican and Wicker is too inoffensive of an incumbent for him to take down. Prediction: Wicker by 17.
Mississippi (B)--This is the complicated Senate race in the Magnolia State this year, replacing Republican Thad Cochran who retired because of health issues and whose seat is open to a jungle primary on November 6th, going to a December runoff if nobody gets 50%, a threshold unlikely to be met on November 6th. The safe money is on appointed Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith who will be running to fill out the rest of Cochran's term, and also likely to get a position in the top-two is Democrat Mike Espy, the former Congressman and Agriculture Secretary. But the wild card in the race is right-wing Republican lawmaker Chris McDaniel, who came within a hair's breath of beating Cochran for the Republican nomination in 2014 and is running again, but has ruffled some feathers in the state GOP after his sour grapes response to the 2014 loss. Still, polling has been light and it's not clear if McDaniel might stage a surprise surge and outrun Hyde-Smith or Espy for the second position on the ballot. It's very hard to imagine a scenario where Espy gets the 50% needed to win either on November 6th or the December runoff, so my money is on Hyde-Smith getting the most votes, but not a majority, on November 6th, and then cruising in the runoff. Prediction: Hyde-Smith by 21 (in December).
Missouri--At the beginning of this cycle, the scuttlebutt was that two-term Show Me State Senator Claire McCaskill was the most endangered of a handful of highly endangered Democratic incumbents. But McCaskill has a history of running skilled campaigns and getting very lucky with her opponents. It looked like her luck may hold as her GOP challenger, Attorney General Josh Hawley, was putting up a weak challenge and was the subject of intraparty drama given that as AG, he had to prosecute the state's Republican Governor who has since resigned. But McCaskill's weak standing in the getting-more-red-every-day state of Missouri has kept her on defense in the race's home stretch, with her best polls showing her tied and the remainder of the polls showing her 2-3 points behind. I guess it's possible that in a year with robust Democratic enthusiasm and less energy on the Republican side that McCaskill could extend her winning streak, but it's odds-against. Any McCaskill victory will come almost exclusively from the Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas as every other corner of the state has become hopelessly red....and there is no precedent for any Democrat ever winning Missouri with Kansas City and St. Louis alone. I don't see it happening this time either. Prediction: Hawley by 4. Running Total: GOP +3
Montana--Last fall when I made my first round of Senate predictions, I said Jon Tester would probably be the only one of the five deep red state incumbent Democrats to prevail. This past summer, Tester was really looking strong and it was an easy call to predict he would walk over his Republican challenger, state Auditor Matt Rosendale, in November. But the GOP invested heavily in attacking Tester's liberal-for-Montana record and they drew some blood, with Tester's lead falling to low-to-mid single digits in September....and that was before the Kavanaugh hearings. Unfortunately for everybody, not a single Montana poll has been released since the Kavanaugh hearings to show if Tester has lost more ground, as would be entirely plausible in the patriarchal Treasure State. But neither national party is making any noise that would suggest the race has changed so I'm inclined to think Tester is holding his own. Hopefully there will be some kind of polling released between now and election day to clarify, because it could definitely result in me changing my call, but right I'll go with Tester hanging on to win. Prediction: Tester by 3.
Nebraska--Considering the soft approval ratings for first-term Republican Senator Deb Fischer, I considered this a possible sleeper race if absolutely everything went right for the Democrats, but there has not been any openings for Democratic challenger Jane Raybould, a Lincoln City Councilwoman, to exploit, and zero public polling to indicate how strong Fischer is or isn't. But based on the complete lack of chatter even amongst the campaigns, it seems pretty likely that Fischer is cruising in the deep red Cornhusker State. Prediction: Fischer by 20.
Nevada--The Silver State almost always shows tight polls or Republican leads, but the vaunted Harry Reid machine of Hispanics and union voters can usually be counted on to nudge the Democrats to victory. And going into this cycle, it seemed likely that incumbent Republican Dean Heller was a dead man walking....but he's been remarkably resilient, doing no worse than a tie in most recent polls. But Heller's standing remains tenuous as he fights to keep his job against Democratic Congresswoman Jacky Rosen who is challenging him. Last week, I'd have probably guessed Heller hung on based on his long-standing representation of the Reno area which would probably mean he overperforms there as he did in 2012 when he won by one point. But after this weekend's early voting figures, I'm tilting the race to Rosen. Nevada is the only state in the country where I give much heed to early voting patterns, but voters can be isolated based on party registration and with only two counties producing 80% of the state's voters, there are some definitive tea leaves to read. The first two days of early voting this year have shown blistering turnout advantages for Democrats in the two populous counties (Clark and Washoe). I'm sure Democrats are hoping these early voting patterns out of Nevada are indicative of the electorate they see nationally. That remains to be seen, but I've seen enough to think Rosen has the advantage. Prediction: Rosen by 3. Running Total: GOP +2
New Jersey--Thanks to the famously corrupt Democratic Party of the Garden State, a seat that should have been a slam-dunk is on the periphery of the battleground as the party machine just had to circle the wagons in support of Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez, rescued from criminal conviction and prison time by a hung jury last year. In just about any other state, that would have been the incumbent's cue to retire, but Menendez is seeking a third full term and is likely to get it because of how Democratic and how anti-Trump New Jersey is. Had Hillary won in 2016, I think Menendez would have lost. But the Republicans are still gonna make him work for it this running, with rich guy Bob Hugin investing millions of his personal fortune to unseat Menendez. Polling has shown Hugin within striking distance, but he picked the wrong year to be a Republican in Jersey and Menendez is likely to prevail despite himself and despite his party. He should be ashamed, however, that he forced the national party to divert scarce resources to save his corrupt ass this year. Prediction: Menendez by 9.
New Mexico--This race got shaken up late when former Republican Governor and libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson got into the race as an independent. By doing so, Johnson will likely perform better than the lightweight Republican nominee Mick Rich, but this race is still Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich's to lose...and I don't think he will. Johnson maintains some residual goodwill in New Mexico and will likely get some votes that would have otherwise gone to Heinrich, but I still think Heinrich does better than 50% in the divided field, with Rich very possibly getting less than 20% of the vote. Prediction: Heinrich by 15.
New York--Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand comes across as an even more craven opportunist than the New York Senator who preceded her in the seat (that would be Hillary Clinton), but it won't hurt her against token GOP challenger Cheli Farley in the heavily Democratic Empire State in what will be a very anti-Trump electorate. Expect a comprehensive Gillibrand win of about 2-1. Prediction: Gillibrand by 32.
North Dakota--I said in an earlier writeup that Claire McCaskill of Missouri was considered likely to end up the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. While McCaskill continues to look incredibly vulnerable, she's not the not endangered Democrat. That title goes to North Dakota Democratic freshman Heidi Heitkamp, who was not expected to be quite so vulnerable and as recently as this past spring, the Republicans couldn't find any top-tier candidate willing to challenge her. But then they convinced the state's at-large Congressman Kevin Cramer to run and it's been all downhill ever since for her. I'm not sure what went wrong here but reports started coming out in the late summer that Heitkamp was behind in internal polling, and when a couple of public polls came out the narrative was reinforced in a major way, showing Heitkamp losing by double digits. The Kavanaugh hearings clearly played a part in her troubles, making her high-profile vote against Kavanaugh all the more impactful. A staff screw-up last week may have dug Heitkamp's role deeper or at least forced her to play defense when she desperately needed to be on message. Everything has gone wrong for Heitkamp and her party in this race, and particularly up against the crude empty suit Cramer, it's hard to see why. I figured from the outset that this race would be just out of Heitkamp's reach because North Dakota has just gotten impossibly red, but I figured she'd at least keep it close. There's no way of knowing if she's closed the gap from those ugly early October polls but it's very hard to imagine she's gained enough momentum to come from behind and pull off the minor miracle she performed by winning by one point in 2012. Prediction: Cramer by 8. Running Total: GOP +3
Ohio--After Donald Trump's big Ohio win just two years ago, it would have been hard to imagine that liberal Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown would be coasting to re-election just two years later. I have serious doubt Brown could have survived this year if Hillary had won, but instead Brown is polling so well that he could carry downballot Ohio Democrats across the finish line with him. Republican Congressman Jim Renacci has been a gigantic disappointment as the party's nominee and hasn't laid a finger on Brown in the campaign. Brown now looks poised to exceed his 12-point win from 2006 this year and might even do as well as GOP Senator Rob Portman did in his state two years ago. Prediction: Brown by 16.
Pennsylvania--Two-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey was never poised to be as vulnerable as Sherrod Brown was in neighboring Ohio in an alternative world where Hillary won, but I still think Casey was beatable in that world. But in the world we live in where Trump is President, the Keystone State seems poised to have a very Democratic year up and down the ballot, and Casey will be among the big winners. Republican Congressman Lou Barletta got the timing all wrong for his very Trumpy candidacy and at this point could end up faring worse against Casey than Rick Santorum did in 2006. Prediction: Casey by 17.
Rhode Island--The indigo blue state of Rhode Island would be sending Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse back for a third term no matter what, but with Trump's unpopularity in the northeast, Whitehouse should really have a blowout this year against weak Republican challenger Robert Flanders. Prediction: Whitehouse by 35.
Tennessee--I gotta hand it to former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen for staying relevant in this Senate race longer than I expected he would in what has become one of the most brutally Republican states in the country. If you believe the polls, Bredesen remains very competitive with right-wing Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn even two weeks before election day in the race to replace retiring Republican Bob Corker. Unfortunately for Bredesen, I don't believe the polls. Republicans almost always exceed their polling in Tennessee come election day and I expect the "undecideds" in this race are likely Republicans who will break decisively towards Blackburn in the end. For Bredesen to win this race, it would have required a perfect storm comparable to what got Doug Jones elected in last year's special election in Alabama. Instead, red-state Democrats are getting pretty much a perfect reverse storm this October, between contentious Supreme Court fights and "migrant caravans" marching through Mexico towards the U.S. border. I'd love to be wrong but I suspect this campaign will end very badly for Bredesen. Prediction: Blackburn by 11.
Texas--Almost as impressive as Bredesen's run in Tennessee has been Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke running as an unapologetic liberal in right-wing Texas and hanging in there for months in his quest to unseat Republican incumbent Ted Cruz. There was a time last month where O'Rourke had enough momentum that I allowed myself to consider for a hot minute that he might possibly win. But then that minute passed and the Kavanaugh hearings raised Republican enthusiasm and reasserted tribal fault lines. Cruz is unlikely to win by the huge margins Republicans have been accustomed to winning by in recent years, and especially in midterms, but he will still likely win decisively as Beto's momentum stalled at a key point in the campaign and seems unlikely to bounce back with "migrant caravans" front and center in the national headlines. We got a first taste of what a Democratic coalition in Texas would look like when Hillary got within single digits in 2016 and will probably inch closer to that in 2018, but I suspect it will be too little, too late. Prediction: Cruz by 7.
Utah--It's pretty darn rare than a candidate for an open Senate seat is a former Presidential nominee but that's exactly the situation this year in Utah as Mitt Romney is the Republican candidate running to fill Orrin Hatch's vacated seat. Romney is wildly popular in Utah while Trump is not, and it's entirely possible the right Democrat (say, former Congressman Jim Matheson) could have been competitive in a Utah Senate race this year if any other Republican but Romney was running. Democratic challenger Jenny Wilson is unlikely to get much traction at all. Prediction: Romney by 41.
Vermont--My pick for the biggest landslide victory in this year's Senate class is left-wing Independent incumbent Bernie Sanders. Sanders has always been wildly popular in liberal Vermont and in a midterm cycle poised to be a huge backlash against Trump, Bernie should really clean up against invisible GOP challenger Lawrence Zupan. Prediction: Sanders by 48.
Virginia--Two years ago at this time I'd have expected to write about this race in terms of a challenging fight to retain the Senate seat of Vice President Tim Kaine....but of course Kaine didn't become Vice President so now he's defending his Senate seat and poised for a huge blowout against a dreadful GOP challenger in Corey Stewart who has ties to white nationalists and is about 50 years too late to be a serious contender in blue-trending Virginia. The only question is whether Kaine can outperform Mark Warner's 25-point blowout in 2008....but I think the 2018 electorate is too polarized. Prediction: Kaine by 18.
Washington--Democrat Maria Cantwell is probably poised for her biggest win yet in Washington state in what looks like a really Democrat year in a state getting more blue all the time. Her GOP opponent is newswoman Susan Hutchinson who doesn't seem likely to get anything outside the Republican base in the rural central and eastern part of the state, and could very well underperform even there. Prediction: Cantwell by 23.
West Virginia--On the surface, it looks like conservative Democrat Joe Manchin seems poised to defy his state's tremendous Republican lean and re-elect him to a second full term over his Republican challenger, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Manchin's lead in the polls is a remarkable feat in a state Trump won by 42 points, but Trump's continued sky-high approval ratings in the Almost Heaven State continues to make Manchin's lead extremely shaky. A couple of well-timed Trump rallies on Morrisey's behalf and some bad national headlines (like, say, a "migrant caravan" marching towards the U.S. border) could be the difference. And considering that the polls have been off in Democrats' favor many times in the past in West Virginia, I'm reluctant to call this one for Manchin. The guy has surprised me in the past with his political resilience, but I just can't bring myself to believe this race holds together for two more weeks. Prediction: Morrisey by 1. Running Total: GOP +4
Wisconsin--Freshman Democrat Tammy Baldwin would likely be in a lot of trouble in the Badger State had Hillary Clinton won in 2016 given the state's trajectory, but every indication is the state is poised for a correction after years of Republican ascendancy, a trend consistent with the state's past tendencies. Republican challenger Leah Vukmir will probably put up more of a fight than some of Herb Kohl's lightweight GOP challengers in the previous decade, but every polling indicator suggests Baldwin is poised for a double-digit victory. Prediction: Baldwin by 12.
Wyoming--Republican Senator John Barrasso is fortunate to be running in the reddest state in the county and should be immune from any Democratic wave that does or doesn't happen nationally. Democrats are putting up a reasonably strong candidate in Gary Trauner, who came extremely close to winning the state's at-large House seat in 2006, but there hasn't been any polling or any indication that the race is competitive so I'm gonna operate under the safe assumption that Trauner hasn't drawn any blood at all against Barrasso and will lose by a typical blowout margin that the average Wyoming Democrat loses by. Prediction: Barrasso by 35.
The Democrats needed an inside straight in a very red-leaning map if they were to win back the Senate this November, and for a hot minute in the period after Labor Day it looked possible. But Democrats began suffering their first round of setbacks in early October, at the very time they would normally be expected to start pulling away in a "wave" cycle. Now it looks more likely to be a "red wave" in these Senate races, and it could play out simultaneously on the same election night where the Democrats are having a moderate "wave" in the House. How is this possible? Two completely different electoral battlegrounds. Control of the House will be determined in upscale suburbs filled with college-educated professionals. Control of the Senate will be determined in heavily rural states full of working-class whites, a group that voted for Trump with 64% of the vote and who approves of his job performance by 65% two years later.
The best the Democrats can hope for is polling samples too heavily weighted to Republican-friendly 2010 and 2014 midterm models. That's certainly possible, but would require diminished Republican voter enthusiasm to credibly pull off....and subdued Republican voter interest seems less likely with every mile closer the "migrant caravan" gets to the U.S. border. If there's any bright side, it's that Democrats are gonna get a real-time preview of how the immigration issue plays this midterm before they run on an expansionist platform in 2020 which I believe would be a political disaster. Only time will tell how it goes, but I'm a little surprised at this point in the race that these Senate races look this bleak. I can only imagine how bad they'd look if Hillary Clinton was President this year.
Arizona--In the open seat to replace Republican Jeff Flake, Democratic Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema had been in the catbird's seat for months and seemed poised to defeat Republican Congresswoman Martha McSally and flip the seat blue. But Sinema's past as a far-left radical in her youth is producing a drip-drip of effective soundbytes for McSally to exploit and undermine Sinema's reinvention as a moderate. Most recently, some video has been dropped of Sinema saying disparaging things about Arizona voters in out-of-state speeches. Polling has been inconsistent in the weeks since but most indications are that McSally has drawn blood and Sinema is reeling. Sinema is still acting like she's leading in this race but I'm starting to doubt she is. There are a half dozen Senate seats on the knife's edge and this is one of them. If and until I see polling numbers that indicate Sinema has found her footing, I'm gonna assume a narrow McSally victory is forthcoming and the GOP will hold a seat that Democrats have considered as good as in their column since early summer. Prediction: McSally by 2.
California--For several months, the Democrat versus Democrat California Senate race seemed unlikely to be competitive. State Senator Kevin de Leon was just not catching on fire in his attempt to replace octogenarian incumbent Dianne Feinstein. That's still probably true but after Feinstein's controversial role in the Kavanaugh hearings, there's some speculation that de Leon has an opening. If de Leon can hold his liberal and Hispanic base, perhaps angry Republicans looking to vote against Feinstein can put together a coalition and take down Feinstein. Seems like quite a reach, but there's so little polling that I have no idea if de Leon has been closing the gap or not. Ultimately, however, I think Feinstein still pulls it out without breaking a sweat as I suspect if there are a huge wave of enraged Republicans, they'd be more likely to leave the ballot blank than vote for de Leon, who's further to the left than Feinstein. Prediction: Feinstein by 18.
Connecticut--Democratic incumbent Chris Murphy is poised for an absolute cakewalk against his invisible GOP challenger, rich guy Matthew Corey. I never expected this race to be competitive but it's such a foregone conclusion that Murphy wins in a blowout that I don't really have anything specific to say about it. Prediction: Murphy by 28.
Delaware--The real fight for moderate Democratic incumbent Tom Carper this year was the primary, where he was challenged from the left but ultimately prevailed comfortably. After getting the nomination, the general election will be a breeze for Carper against fourth-rate GOP challenger Rob Arlett. Prediction: Carper by 35.
Florida--Given how almost every close race seems to go to the Republican in Florida, particularly in midterms, I was an early skeptic of laid-back Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson's attempt to win a fourth term against well-funded and suddenly popular GOP Governor Rick Scott. But as this cycle began to develop into a Democratic wave, I figured Nelson might get a needed tailwind...enough to pull this out. There is scant evidence that that is happening even now in the last couple weeks of the campaign, and in fact Scott's raised profile during the recent hurricanes might be giving him a tick of momentum in the home stretch, all while Nelson is paying the consequences for a late start to his campaign generally and more specifically in letting Scott outflank him in his outreach to the Puerto Rican community which Nelson desperately needs to hang on to if he's to win. Suddenly, Nelson's best hope is a surge of African American voters expected to come out on behalf of gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum. What a strange world when the Bernie-endorsed Tallahassee Mayor under FBI investigation is being counted on to provide three-term Senate incumbent Bill Nelson the coattails needed to eke out a win. It could still happen, but I'm afraid the polling models will have to be skewed to undercount Democratic enthusiasm, and that's a fool's bet in the Sunshine State. This is a very close call at this stage but I'm afraid I've gotta go with Scott here. Prediction: Scott by <1 .="" br="" gop="" nbsp="" running="" total:="">
Hawaii--I was not impressed with the way Democrat Mazie Hirono acquitted herself during the Kavanaugh hearings, but luckily for her she's living in one of the nation's bluest states and there's unlikely to be any consequences. It's possible Hirono could lose some soft support but her "some dude" challenger Ron Curtis is not and never was positioned to put up a real fight against Hirono. Prediction: Hirono by 30.
Indiana--A few months ago, I figured the large number of battleground Senate races would see enough movement to one candidate or the other to make final calls easier, but that has not happened. Part of it has to do with far less polling than in the past, but even more so, the momentum that Democrats were starting to build in September was erased during the Kavanaugh hearings, and one conservative Democratic Senator who had to make a tough political choice was Joe Donnelly, the accidental Senator from 2012 who only got his job because then GOP candidate Richard Mourdock disqualified himself with a stupid comment about rape in a debate. This year's Republican challenger, state legislator and rich guy Mike Braun, isn't perfect, but hasn't made any unforced errors which is enough to make him competitive in the red-leaning Hoosier State. This race was expected to be a heavy lift for Democrats, but Donnelly appeared to have a lead in September. Polling since has been limited but indicates the race has narrowed, but with a narrow Donnelly lead within the margin of error continuing to hold. This is another race that's a tough call and the vagaries of Indiana laws probably means polling moving forward will continue to be minimal, so all I have to go on is gut feeling and the reliability of the polling models used so far as being reflective of the electorate we're likely to see. I don't have a strong sense either way of how this is going but I tend to think Braun might have the edge in the end. Prediction: Braun by 1. Running Total: GOP +2
Maine--If this was a traditional three-way race in Maine I'd be entirely confident that Independent Angus King, who caucuses with the Democrats, would win a solid uncontested majority, but Maine has implemented ranked-choice voting this year, and I still don't really understand how that works and how it will affect the final tally. I'm still entirely confident that King defeats both Republican challenger Eric Brakey and Democrat Zak Ringelstein, but I have no idea who to expect will finish second or how much closer the "second-ranked" candidate will get in the final margin than he would have with a traditional counting scheme...so all I can do is through out a guess....and hope this ranked-choice voting doesn't catch on and make my job that much more difficult. Prediction: King by 16.
Maryland--And another three-candidate race will transpire in Maryland where Democrat Ben Cardin is running for a third term and is certain to win handily. In 2012, Cardin won a three-way race with 56% and split opposition. I suspect his numbers will look about the same this year, but am not entirely sure which of his unimpressive challengers, Republican Tony Campbell or independent Neal Simon, will take home the second-place trophy. I'm guessing Campbell but no guarantees. Prediction: Cardin by 23.
Massachusetts--Last year I predicted that while Democrat Elizabeth Warren would get a second term, the numbers wouldn't be as overwhelming as many suspected as she's just never caught on with the more blue-collar voters of the Bay State. I went so far as to say if Hillary had won in 2016, Warren's seat would likely be a battleground. The fierce opposition to Donald Trump in Massachusetts has changed my thinking on that, however, as I suspect the supermajority of the state's voters will all vote for Warren over lightweight Republican challenger Geoff Diehl just to stick it to Trump. But I still don't see Warren as playing well in a Presidential race which she is clearly setting herself up for. Prediction: Warren by 27.
Michigan--Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow is like so many Dems in this Senate class and has benefited from lucky timing in that all four contests she's run in have been in Democratic years. Her fourth bid is the latest example as every indication points to a very good year for Democrats in the Wolverine State. Stabenow's Republican challenger John James is straight out of central casting as a candidate....a young black entrepreneur and veteran who is articulate and charismatic. But James picked a very bad year to run and has not found any momentum at all. I suspect if Hillary had narrowly won in 2016, this race would be going quite a bit differently. Prediction: Stabenow by 17.
Minnesota (A)--Two-term Democrat Amy Klobuchar has the number of the Gopher State, scoring blowout wins in both of her primary races. She won by 30 points in 2012, and while she has token opposition again in Republican legislator Jim Newberger who she was demolish, I suspect overall voter polarization since then may shrink her margin a bit this time....but wouldn't be surprised if she dominated just as strongly as last time. Prediction: Klobuchar by 25.
Minnesota (B)--In the special election to replace Democrat Al Franken, I've been a little nervous we could be looking at a sleeper race between appointed Democratic quasi-incumbent Tina Smith and state Senator Karin Housley, her Republican Senator, given that Smith is largely unknown and doesn't exactly leave much of an impression. But Housley's campaign has not been strong and polling is not giving much indication of an opening for her, while Smith will have an incredible wind at her back with Klobuchar and a strong Democratic gubernatorial candidate. I'm not fully conceding that Smith has put this race away yet, but it's getting very late for Housley to stage any kind of comeback. Prediction: Smith by 11.
Mississippi (A)--This is the uncomplicated Senate race in the Magnolia State this year, where Republican incumbent Roger Wicker is seeking a third term. His opponent is Democratic state lawmaker David Baria, who is a solid candidate for the Dems but Mississippi is just to Republican and Wicker is too inoffensive of an incumbent for him to take down. Prediction: Wicker by 17.
Mississippi (B)--This is the complicated Senate race in the Magnolia State this year, replacing Republican Thad Cochran who retired because of health issues and whose seat is open to a jungle primary on November 6th, going to a December runoff if nobody gets 50%, a threshold unlikely to be met on November 6th. The safe money is on appointed Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith who will be running to fill out the rest of Cochran's term, and also likely to get a position in the top-two is Democrat Mike Espy, the former Congressman and Agriculture Secretary. But the wild card in the race is right-wing Republican lawmaker Chris McDaniel, who came within a hair's breath of beating Cochran for the Republican nomination in 2014 and is running again, but has ruffled some feathers in the state GOP after his sour grapes response to the 2014 loss. Still, polling has been light and it's not clear if McDaniel might stage a surprise surge and outrun Hyde-Smith or Espy for the second position on the ballot. It's very hard to imagine a scenario where Espy gets the 50% needed to win either on November 6th or the December runoff, so my money is on Hyde-Smith getting the most votes, but not a majority, on November 6th, and then cruising in the runoff. Prediction: Hyde-Smith by 21 (in December).
Missouri--At the beginning of this cycle, the scuttlebutt was that two-term Show Me State Senator Claire McCaskill was the most endangered of a handful of highly endangered Democratic incumbents. But McCaskill has a history of running skilled campaigns and getting very lucky with her opponents. It looked like her luck may hold as her GOP challenger, Attorney General Josh Hawley, was putting up a weak challenge and was the subject of intraparty drama given that as AG, he had to prosecute the state's Republican Governor who has since resigned. But McCaskill's weak standing in the getting-more-red-every-day state of Missouri has kept her on defense in the race's home stretch, with her best polls showing her tied and the remainder of the polls showing her 2-3 points behind. I guess it's possible that in a year with robust Democratic enthusiasm and less energy on the Republican side that McCaskill could extend her winning streak, but it's odds-against. Any McCaskill victory will come almost exclusively from the Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas as every other corner of the state has become hopelessly red....and there is no precedent for any Democrat ever winning Missouri with Kansas City and St. Louis alone. I don't see it happening this time either. Prediction: Hawley by 4. Running Total: GOP +3
Montana--Last fall when I made my first round of Senate predictions, I said Jon Tester would probably be the only one of the five deep red state incumbent Democrats to prevail. This past summer, Tester was really looking strong and it was an easy call to predict he would walk over his Republican challenger, state Auditor Matt Rosendale, in November. But the GOP invested heavily in attacking Tester's liberal-for-Montana record and they drew some blood, with Tester's lead falling to low-to-mid single digits in September....and that was before the Kavanaugh hearings. Unfortunately for everybody, not a single Montana poll has been released since the Kavanaugh hearings to show if Tester has lost more ground, as would be entirely plausible in the patriarchal Treasure State. But neither national party is making any noise that would suggest the race has changed so I'm inclined to think Tester is holding his own. Hopefully there will be some kind of polling released between now and election day to clarify, because it could definitely result in me changing my call, but right I'll go with Tester hanging on to win. Prediction: Tester by 3.
Nebraska--Considering the soft approval ratings for first-term Republican Senator Deb Fischer, I considered this a possible sleeper race if absolutely everything went right for the Democrats, but there has not been any openings for Democratic challenger Jane Raybould, a Lincoln City Councilwoman, to exploit, and zero public polling to indicate how strong Fischer is or isn't. But based on the complete lack of chatter even amongst the campaigns, it seems pretty likely that Fischer is cruising in the deep red Cornhusker State. Prediction: Fischer by 20.
Nevada--The Silver State almost always shows tight polls or Republican leads, but the vaunted Harry Reid machine of Hispanics and union voters can usually be counted on to nudge the Democrats to victory. And going into this cycle, it seemed likely that incumbent Republican Dean Heller was a dead man walking....but he's been remarkably resilient, doing no worse than a tie in most recent polls. But Heller's standing remains tenuous as he fights to keep his job against Democratic Congresswoman Jacky Rosen who is challenging him. Last week, I'd have probably guessed Heller hung on based on his long-standing representation of the Reno area which would probably mean he overperforms there as he did in 2012 when he won by one point. But after this weekend's early voting figures, I'm tilting the race to Rosen. Nevada is the only state in the country where I give much heed to early voting patterns, but voters can be isolated based on party registration and with only two counties producing 80% of the state's voters, there are some definitive tea leaves to read. The first two days of early voting this year have shown blistering turnout advantages for Democrats in the two populous counties (Clark and Washoe). I'm sure Democrats are hoping these early voting patterns out of Nevada are indicative of the electorate they see nationally. That remains to be seen, but I've seen enough to think Rosen has the advantage. Prediction: Rosen by 3. Running Total: GOP +2
New Jersey--Thanks to the famously corrupt Democratic Party of the Garden State, a seat that should have been a slam-dunk is on the periphery of the battleground as the party machine just had to circle the wagons in support of Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez, rescued from criminal conviction and prison time by a hung jury last year. In just about any other state, that would have been the incumbent's cue to retire, but Menendez is seeking a third full term and is likely to get it because of how Democratic and how anti-Trump New Jersey is. Had Hillary won in 2016, I think Menendez would have lost. But the Republicans are still gonna make him work for it this running, with rich guy Bob Hugin investing millions of his personal fortune to unseat Menendez. Polling has shown Hugin within striking distance, but he picked the wrong year to be a Republican in Jersey and Menendez is likely to prevail despite himself and despite his party. He should be ashamed, however, that he forced the national party to divert scarce resources to save his corrupt ass this year. Prediction: Menendez by 9.
New Mexico--This race got shaken up late when former Republican Governor and libertarian Presidential candidate Gary Johnson got into the race as an independent. By doing so, Johnson will likely perform better than the lightweight Republican nominee Mick Rich, but this race is still Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich's to lose...and I don't think he will. Johnson maintains some residual goodwill in New Mexico and will likely get some votes that would have otherwise gone to Heinrich, but I still think Heinrich does better than 50% in the divided field, with Rich very possibly getting less than 20% of the vote. Prediction: Heinrich by 15.
New York--Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand comes across as an even more craven opportunist than the New York Senator who preceded her in the seat (that would be Hillary Clinton), but it won't hurt her against token GOP challenger Cheli Farley in the heavily Democratic Empire State in what will be a very anti-Trump electorate. Expect a comprehensive Gillibrand win of about 2-1. Prediction: Gillibrand by 32.
North Dakota--I said in an earlier writeup that Claire McCaskill of Missouri was considered likely to end up the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. While McCaskill continues to look incredibly vulnerable, she's not the not endangered Democrat. That title goes to North Dakota Democratic freshman Heidi Heitkamp, who was not expected to be quite so vulnerable and as recently as this past spring, the Republicans couldn't find any top-tier candidate willing to challenge her. But then they convinced the state's at-large Congressman Kevin Cramer to run and it's been all downhill ever since for her. I'm not sure what went wrong here but reports started coming out in the late summer that Heitkamp was behind in internal polling, and when a couple of public polls came out the narrative was reinforced in a major way, showing Heitkamp losing by double digits. The Kavanaugh hearings clearly played a part in her troubles, making her high-profile vote against Kavanaugh all the more impactful. A staff screw-up last week may have dug Heitkamp's role deeper or at least forced her to play defense when she desperately needed to be on message. Everything has gone wrong for Heitkamp and her party in this race, and particularly up against the crude empty suit Cramer, it's hard to see why. I figured from the outset that this race would be just out of Heitkamp's reach because North Dakota has just gotten impossibly red, but I figured she'd at least keep it close. There's no way of knowing if she's closed the gap from those ugly early October polls but it's very hard to imagine she's gained enough momentum to come from behind and pull off the minor miracle she performed by winning by one point in 2012. Prediction: Cramer by 8. Running Total: GOP +3
Ohio--After Donald Trump's big Ohio win just two years ago, it would have been hard to imagine that liberal Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown would be coasting to re-election just two years later. I have serious doubt Brown could have survived this year if Hillary had won, but instead Brown is polling so well that he could carry downballot Ohio Democrats across the finish line with him. Republican Congressman Jim Renacci has been a gigantic disappointment as the party's nominee and hasn't laid a finger on Brown in the campaign. Brown now looks poised to exceed his 12-point win from 2006 this year and might even do as well as GOP Senator Rob Portman did in his state two years ago. Prediction: Brown by 16.
Pennsylvania--Two-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey was never poised to be as vulnerable as Sherrod Brown was in neighboring Ohio in an alternative world where Hillary won, but I still think Casey was beatable in that world. But in the world we live in where Trump is President, the Keystone State seems poised to have a very Democratic year up and down the ballot, and Casey will be among the big winners. Republican Congressman Lou Barletta got the timing all wrong for his very Trumpy candidacy and at this point could end up faring worse against Casey than Rick Santorum did in 2006. Prediction: Casey by 17.
Rhode Island--The indigo blue state of Rhode Island would be sending Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse back for a third term no matter what, but with Trump's unpopularity in the northeast, Whitehouse should really have a blowout this year against weak Republican challenger Robert Flanders. Prediction: Whitehouse by 35.
Tennessee--I gotta hand it to former Democratic Governor Phil Bredesen for staying relevant in this Senate race longer than I expected he would in what has become one of the most brutally Republican states in the country. If you believe the polls, Bredesen remains very competitive with right-wing Republican Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn even two weeks before election day in the race to replace retiring Republican Bob Corker. Unfortunately for Bredesen, I don't believe the polls. Republicans almost always exceed their polling in Tennessee come election day and I expect the "undecideds" in this race are likely Republicans who will break decisively towards Blackburn in the end. For Bredesen to win this race, it would have required a perfect storm comparable to what got Doug Jones elected in last year's special election in Alabama. Instead, red-state Democrats are getting pretty much a perfect reverse storm this October, between contentious Supreme Court fights and "migrant caravans" marching through Mexico towards the U.S. border. I'd love to be wrong but I suspect this campaign will end very badly for Bredesen. Prediction: Blackburn by 11.
Texas--Almost as impressive as Bredesen's run in Tennessee has been Democratic Congressman Beto O'Rourke running as an unapologetic liberal in right-wing Texas and hanging in there for months in his quest to unseat Republican incumbent Ted Cruz. There was a time last month where O'Rourke had enough momentum that I allowed myself to consider for a hot minute that he might possibly win. But then that minute passed and the Kavanaugh hearings raised Republican enthusiasm and reasserted tribal fault lines. Cruz is unlikely to win by the huge margins Republicans have been accustomed to winning by in recent years, and especially in midterms, but he will still likely win decisively as Beto's momentum stalled at a key point in the campaign and seems unlikely to bounce back with "migrant caravans" front and center in the national headlines. We got a first taste of what a Democratic coalition in Texas would look like when Hillary got within single digits in 2016 and will probably inch closer to that in 2018, but I suspect it will be too little, too late. Prediction: Cruz by 7.
Utah--It's pretty darn rare than a candidate for an open Senate seat is a former Presidential nominee but that's exactly the situation this year in Utah as Mitt Romney is the Republican candidate running to fill Orrin Hatch's vacated seat. Romney is wildly popular in Utah while Trump is not, and it's entirely possible the right Democrat (say, former Congressman Jim Matheson) could have been competitive in a Utah Senate race this year if any other Republican but Romney was running. Democratic challenger Jenny Wilson is unlikely to get much traction at all. Prediction: Romney by 41.
Vermont--My pick for the biggest landslide victory in this year's Senate class is left-wing Independent incumbent Bernie Sanders. Sanders has always been wildly popular in liberal Vermont and in a midterm cycle poised to be a huge backlash against Trump, Bernie should really clean up against invisible GOP challenger Lawrence Zupan. Prediction: Sanders by 48.
Virginia--Two years ago at this time I'd have expected to write about this race in terms of a challenging fight to retain the Senate seat of Vice President Tim Kaine....but of course Kaine didn't become Vice President so now he's defending his Senate seat and poised for a huge blowout against a dreadful GOP challenger in Corey Stewart who has ties to white nationalists and is about 50 years too late to be a serious contender in blue-trending Virginia. The only question is whether Kaine can outperform Mark Warner's 25-point blowout in 2008....but I think the 2018 electorate is too polarized. Prediction: Kaine by 18.
Washington--Democrat Maria Cantwell is probably poised for her biggest win yet in Washington state in what looks like a really Democrat year in a state getting more blue all the time. Her GOP opponent is newswoman Susan Hutchinson who doesn't seem likely to get anything outside the Republican base in the rural central and eastern part of the state, and could very well underperform even there. Prediction: Cantwell by 23.
West Virginia--On the surface, it looks like conservative Democrat Joe Manchin seems poised to defy his state's tremendous Republican lean and re-elect him to a second full term over his Republican challenger, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Manchin's lead in the polls is a remarkable feat in a state Trump won by 42 points, but Trump's continued sky-high approval ratings in the Almost Heaven State continues to make Manchin's lead extremely shaky. A couple of well-timed Trump rallies on Morrisey's behalf and some bad national headlines (like, say, a "migrant caravan" marching towards the U.S. border) could be the difference. And considering that the polls have been off in Democrats' favor many times in the past in West Virginia, I'm reluctant to call this one for Manchin. The guy has surprised me in the past with his political resilience, but I just can't bring myself to believe this race holds together for two more weeks. Prediction: Morrisey by 1. Running Total: GOP +4
Wisconsin--Freshman Democrat Tammy Baldwin would likely be in a lot of trouble in the Badger State had Hillary Clinton won in 2016 given the state's trajectory, but every indication is the state is poised for a correction after years of Republican ascendancy, a trend consistent with the state's past tendencies. Republican challenger Leah Vukmir will probably put up more of a fight than some of Herb Kohl's lightweight GOP challengers in the previous decade, but every polling indicator suggests Baldwin is poised for a double-digit victory. Prediction: Baldwin by 12.
Wyoming--Republican Senator John Barrasso is fortunate to be running in the reddest state in the county and should be immune from any Democratic wave that does or doesn't happen nationally. Democrats are putting up a reasonably strong candidate in Gary Trauner, who came extremely close to winning the state's at-large House seat in 2006, but there hasn't been any polling or any indication that the race is competitive so I'm gonna operate under the safe assumption that Trauner hasn't drawn any blood at all against Barrasso and will lose by a typical blowout margin that the average Wyoming Democrat loses by. Prediction: Barrasso by 35.
The Democrats needed an inside straight in a very red-leaning map if they were to win back the Senate this November, and for a hot minute in the period after Labor Day it looked possible. But Democrats began suffering their first round of setbacks in early October, at the very time they would normally be expected to start pulling away in a "wave" cycle. Now it looks more likely to be a "red wave" in these Senate races, and it could play out simultaneously on the same election night where the Democrats are having a moderate "wave" in the House. How is this possible? Two completely different electoral battlegrounds. Control of the House will be determined in upscale suburbs filled with college-educated professionals. Control of the Senate will be determined in heavily rural states full of working-class whites, a group that voted for Trump with 64% of the vote and who approves of his job performance by 65% two years later.
The best the Democrats can hope for is polling samples too heavily weighted to Republican-friendly 2010 and 2014 midterm models. That's certainly possible, but would require diminished Republican voter enthusiasm to credibly pull off....and subdued Republican voter interest seems less likely with every mile closer the "migrant caravan" gets to the U.S. border. If there's any bright side, it's that Democrats are gonna get a real-time preview of how the immigration issue plays this midterm before they run on an expansionist platform in 2020 which I believe would be a political disaster. Only time will tell how it goes, but I'm a little surprised at this point in the race that these Senate races look this bleak. I can only imagine how bad they'd look if Hillary Clinton was President this year.
posted by Mark at 7:30 PM
6 Comments:
So basically for Democrats it's heads we lose, tails they win. If Hillary was President, Dems would be doing horribly, but if a Republican is in the White House, Dems are still doing poorly.
I'm thinking if Dems don't at least take the House, they may as well just pack it up. This is their once in a decade chance and they very well might blow it.
The Democrats have chosen some very high-risk fights that are coming back to bite them at the worst time. Too early for a postmortem, but barring a major interruption of events (that go beyond bombs that didn't go off), it's hard for me to imagine this "migrant caravan" won't dominate the headlines in the week leading up to the election. Trump has the bully pulpit of the Presidency so if he is relentlessly talking about and acting on something, it will be an issue whether the media wants it to be or not.
I still think the Democrats will take the House though. It would be genuinely shocking if they fell short of 23 seats given the playing field. But some working-class white seats like KY-06, ME-02, and IL-12 that may have flipped based on the September polling trajectory and made this a REAL wave election are far less likely to now.
It is sad and pathetic that Republicans will be able to use illegal immigration to win again, while farms (that likely receive the lion's share of federal subsidies) and other businesses continue to hire illegals, including the dairy owned by Devin Nunes' family that relocated from California to Iowa.
Even after HB 56 in Alabama, no American worker was willing or able to do the hard agricultural work, so crops just rotted in the fields. I heard that the illegals were quietly brought back, though I can't find sources to confirm it.
Yeah that Devin Nunes story was nuts. I grew up only a couple of hours east of the county profiled in the Lizza story and have been there a few times.
THe issue is a winner for Republicans though. Democrats have positioned themselves terribly on it and this caravan is coming at a time when the chickens will come home to roost. My opinion is that it's irresponsible for the Democrats to not make a collective declaration advising the caravan to go back. Thousands of poor people will be putting their health and the health of their children at risk marching through the jungles and deserts of Mexico and we know full well that the overwhelming majority of them won't get asylum once they get here and will be deported. The bombing story has eaten up the headlines but I suspect Trump can steer the caravan back into the main news story again by Monday. Hard to see how it ends well for the red-state Democrats in the House and especially the Senate. After all the hype about the MegaMillions winner last week, Trump already won the lottery with the timing of this caravan!
Haha, the caravan. Like a human centipede of immigrants who are never gonna make it past the border is gonna change any votes. It's a joke.
By the way, I agree with your predictions with the exception of Florida and West Virginia. I cannot accept the idea that a swing state like Florida will have two Republican Senators for the first time in history, especially in a strong Dem year.
With the national narrative changing after the bomber and the shooter, it MIGHT overwhelm the coverage the caravan gets. But Trump is scheduling a primetime press conference about it this week. He won the 2016 election because of immigration and the issue will be the #1 issue of America and the rest of the Western world in the next generation. I wouldn't underestimate the optics of this caravan motivating a core of the otherwise unmotivated Republican base and conservative independents.
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