Mixed Election News This Week
Yesterday, coming as no surprise to me, came an Associated Press report indicating that new voter registrations among Latinos are not exactly rolling in by the trainload. http://www.nbc4.tv/politics/9786235/detail.html?rss=la&psp=news
Last spring, in the midst of the sizeable urban rallies in favor of Senate-sponsored immigration reform, the media scared politicians into a frenzy over the prospect of an enraged Latino community taking their frustrations out on politicians who didn't approve the McCain-Kennedy reform bill advocating "amnesty" and "guest worker programs". The oft-cited mantra was "Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote". Anyone who tracks exit poll data and regional voter patterns knew this was probably a hollow threat. Illegal immigrants can't vote.....nor can most recent legal immigrants. Voting rights only come in the wake of citizenship, which takes an average of more than a decade to attain.
The much-hyped emergence of an overwhelming Latino vote is one of the most overrated projected "trends" in American elections. Sure, their numbers will eventually grow to the point of electoral significance, but it will always lag far behind their percentage of the overall population due to citizenship requirements. Even with Latinos comprising 14% of the population in 2004, they only accounted for 8% of the voting population in the 2004 election. The numbers will get even more lopsided as the non-citizen Latino population outpaces the slow trickle of Latinos who qualify for citizenship. And Latinos that do vote will remain disproportionately middle class descendants of Hispanic Americans whose forefathers have been on American soil for generations, are indoctrinated into the conservative cowboy culture of the American Southwest, and who share the same fears of illegal immigration that white conservatives do. The meatpackers in Dakota City, Nebraska, and the field hands of Modesto, California, who don't vote today will continue not to vote a generation from now. And politicians who go against the will of the majority of the 92% of the electorate that is not Latino will be punished for it at the polls.
As for the good news, take a look at this set of independent House race polls released today by RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics. http://www.swingstateproject.com/2006/09/junkie_heaven.php#comments
I've heard conflicting reports on the accuracy these polls should be afforded, but they tend to be in line with several of the other internal and independent polls released for some of these races, so I'm inclined to take them seriously. Sure, there are a few trouble spots, including surpisingly strong showing for GOP incumbents like Clay Shaw (FL-22), Chris Shays (CT-04), and Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08) who were thought to be among the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. On the other hand, some races that weren't even considered top-tier contests just six months ago have Democrats in the lead, including Phil Kellam (VA-02) and Chris Carney (PA-10), with other Democratic challengers doing as good or better than conventional wisdom expected, like Tammy Duckworth (IL-06), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Bruce Braley (IA-01), and Charlie Wilson (IA-06). I think I can speak for most Democrats when I say that I'd be more than happy to see these poll numbers come to fruition on November 7. Let's hope they hold.
Last spring, in the midst of the sizeable urban rallies in favor of Senate-sponsored immigration reform, the media scared politicians into a frenzy over the prospect of an enraged Latino community taking their frustrations out on politicians who didn't approve the McCain-Kennedy reform bill advocating "amnesty" and "guest worker programs". The oft-cited mantra was "Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote". Anyone who tracks exit poll data and regional voter patterns knew this was probably a hollow threat. Illegal immigrants can't vote.....nor can most recent legal immigrants. Voting rights only come in the wake of citizenship, which takes an average of more than a decade to attain.
The much-hyped emergence of an overwhelming Latino vote is one of the most overrated projected "trends" in American elections. Sure, their numbers will eventually grow to the point of electoral significance, but it will always lag far behind their percentage of the overall population due to citizenship requirements. Even with Latinos comprising 14% of the population in 2004, they only accounted for 8% of the voting population in the 2004 election. The numbers will get even more lopsided as the non-citizen Latino population outpaces the slow trickle of Latinos who qualify for citizenship. And Latinos that do vote will remain disproportionately middle class descendants of Hispanic Americans whose forefathers have been on American soil for generations, are indoctrinated into the conservative cowboy culture of the American Southwest, and who share the same fears of illegal immigration that white conservatives do. The meatpackers in Dakota City, Nebraska, and the field hands of Modesto, California, who don't vote today will continue not to vote a generation from now. And politicians who go against the will of the majority of the 92% of the electorate that is not Latino will be punished for it at the polls.
As for the good news, take a look at this set of independent House race polls released today by RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics. http://www.swingstateproject.com/2006/09/junkie_heaven.php#comments
I've heard conflicting reports on the accuracy these polls should be afforded, but they tend to be in line with several of the other internal and independent polls released for some of these races, so I'm inclined to take them seriously. Sure, there are a few trouble spots, including surpisingly strong showing for GOP incumbents like Clay Shaw (FL-22), Chris Shays (CT-04), and Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08) who were thought to be among the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. On the other hand, some races that weren't even considered top-tier contests just six months ago have Democrats in the lead, including Phil Kellam (VA-02) and Chris Carney (PA-10), with other Democratic challengers doing as good or better than conventional wisdom expected, like Tammy Duckworth (IL-06), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Bruce Braley (IA-01), and Charlie Wilson (IA-06). I think I can speak for most Democrats when I say that I'd be more than happy to see these poll numbers come to fruition on November 7. Let's hope they hold.
posted by Mark at 6:01 PM
1 Comments:
I'd gladly do that if I knew how. I'm not exactly a computer whiz. Advise me on how it's done and I'll post a link.
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