A Royal Flush of Bad News for Democrats?

At this time on Friday, I was sweating a little bit. No fewer than five different news stories were cutting against the Democratic Party and their quest to take control of Congress in (at the time) 11 short days. It's too soon to tell if there will be any significant damage from any of these stories, but polls in the next few days should tell the tale. In declining order of significance, these stories include.

5) The brouhaha over Michael J. Fox's stem cell ads running in Missouri and Maryland. Personally, I found them to be over-the-top. I have commented on this blog before that I fear Democrats are overselling the dividends of embryonic stem cell research, and I doubt I'm the only supporter of said research who feels that way. The inference that Jim Talent is willing to let Michael J. Fox die by not supporting federal funding of embryonic stem cell research is not the kind of message that I expect will play in pro-life and anti-Hollywood Missouri. Fortunately, I suspect the potentially negative consequences of this ad (particularly the Missouri version) have probably been neutralized by Rush Limbaugh's outrageously insensitive accusations regarding Fox's condition...and his unwillingness to back down from them since. The lame, low-budget ad that stem cell opponents in Missouri vollied back, complete with low-rent actors and local sports heroes, probably had little positive effect, but the ad featuring Michael Steele's sister in Maryland is much more effective. Overall, I think Rush Limbaugh may have helped the Dems dodge a bullet here, but I still believe that the Michael J. Fox ad in Missouri will hurt Claire McCaskill more than it helps her.

4) Speaking of the Maryland Senate race, it's my understanding that Democrat Ben Cardin blew off a debate with Michael Steele at a NAACP forum. What the hell could he be thinking? Steele is already pulling in a disproportionate share of the African-American vote in Maryland. Cardin should be showing up to forums featured by the NAACP two hours early rather than blowing them off. I'm not sure what kind of shellacking Cardin is getting from the media after dissing the NAACP forum, but the last thing he needed to do was giving African-American voters another reason to think the Democrats are taking advantage of them, particularly since he didn't manage any knockout blows against Steele in today's Meet the Press debate. Conventional wisdom is that Cardin will win next week, but I think it's more up in the air that we may currently think given the conflicting motivations of black voters here.

3) New Jersey's gay marriage ruling could awaken the sleeping evangelical lions at a time when Democrats have been tiptoeing around them hoping they'll stay in hibernation until November 8. I never believed that the GOP base was really gonna stay home, but one has to believe that a sizeable share that truly was "disillusioned" is ready to spring back into action after this ruling, which couldn't have come at a worse time. On the other hand, the Republicans have been so transparently jubilant about this ruling that they've spent much of the weekend shouting "Hallelujah!" at what is supposed to be devastating news for the future of the American family and thus civilization. They risk being viewed as the sleazy opportunists that they are. Gay marriage is allegedly not as big of an issue to conservatives in 2006 as it was in 2004, but I'm not convinced of that. If it motivates even a small percentage of the GOP base in Missouri, Tennessee, Ohio, or Virginia, it could be a dealbreaker for Democratic Senate candidates in those states, not to mention House districts in other red-leaning districts.

2) Harold Ford, Jr.'s campaign in Tennessee has been sidetracked for several days now by "backlash" over a potshot RNC ad that I'm sure all readers of this blog are acutely familiar with. Unfortunately, the "backlash" is coming exclusively from Washington Democrats and mainstream media talking heads that probably think they're doing Ford a favor by suggesting the race card was being played against him, just as they thought they were doing Jim Webb a favor in Virginia by dredging up former acquaintances who accused him of uttering racial epithets 30 years ago. One guy who smartly recognizes the futility of infusing racial politics in this contest is Harold Ford himself, who is on record suggesting that he finds the ad sleazy and idiotic, but not racist. Unlike the media and Washington Democrats, Ford recognizes that the last thing he needs to be talking about in the final 10 days of a campaign in Tennessee is that he's a black man. While political pundits may see racism in this ad, I highly doubt the average white Tennessee voter would. To hear breathless cries of racism tossed around by the very people Ford is trying to distance himself from is a ruinous situation for Ford. It simply reminds skeptical conservative voters from Tennessee that a Ford victory will simply mean six long years of the race card being slung around. I highly doubt Tennesseeans want that. Whatever momentum Ford had 10 days ago before ambushing Bob Corker's press conference (the Memphis Meltdown) is likely lost now. I can't imagine how he can win.

1) The leaked excerpts from Jim Webb's novels initially struck me as the early November equivalent to the sex scandal that was the Mark Foley scandal in early October, particularly after hearing just how extreme the smutty content was. The fact that the books were narrowly connected to his personal experiences in southeast Asia during his Navy tours didn't seem likely to quell the bleeding. I thought Webb was assuredly finished and that he might take some other Democrats down with them. Thankfully, my original instinct seems to have been too pessimistic, but I still think these raucous excerpts have ended Jim Webb's hopes of winning once and for all, particularly in Virginia. Followers of Pat Robertson (Virginia Beach) and Jerry Falwell (Lynchburg) reserve every morsel of their ire for sex scandals exactly like this one, and I except dynamic turnout against Webb from these communities....and also among women voters, who are already understandably skeptical about Webb based upon his chauvinistic comments about allowing women into combat back in the late 1970s. It all starts to pile on when Webb writes novels featuring women peeling bananas with their crotches to entertain voyueristic male neanderthals. This is a transparent Karl Rove dirty trick revealed 11 days before an election, but that will hardly matter to Virginia values voters who agree with Webb about the war but can't bring themselves to voting for some "filth peddler".

It's heartening to see that the Webb story hasn't gotten the MSM exposure I expected it to, and may in fact die down as we head into the final full week of the campaign, but the other four stories are all likely (or at least have the potential) to fester on, sucking oxygen out of the campaigns of McCaskill, Cardin and especially Ford who are all desperately trying to be on the offense. Whatever the case, the Democrats need to have a better week this week than they did last or expectations will certainly be on the downswing heading into November 7.

The Three Things That Must Happen for Democrats to Win in 15 Days

There are two schools of thought popular amongst political analysts 15 days before the November 7 election. The first is that Democrats are insurgent to the point of expanding the playing field of battleground races and possibly on their way to kind of seismic victory achieved by Republicans in the 1994 midterms. The other school is that the Democrats peaked too early, on the heels of the Mark Foley incident, and have allowed Republicans too much time to regroup and retool their message, holding off the kind of serious challenge the Democrats are currently posing against them and possibly even holding onto their majorities. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle, but I'm increasingly concerned that the latter scenario is closer to correct than the former. This perception is not based so much on hard evidence as much as a stone cold analysis of the horse race and what it will take for Democrats to pull out the kind of landslide they'll need to oust the GOP from the reins of power. Here's the three-item outline I came up with after that analysis:

1) The Democrats need to keep their base motivated and get them out to the polls in droves. If Democratic voters don't turn out in near unanimity (and avoid casting ballots for the 'not-so-bad' Republican incumbent in their home district the way too many usually do), they won't be able to overwhelm the opposition. Now, the conventional wisdom is that the Democratic base is enthused and eager to vote, but the premature declarations of victory from media outlets is not helping on that front, triggering overconfidence among the faithful and perhaps a mindset that it's "not worth standing in the cold and rainy November weather for three hours to cast a ballot when Sherrod Brown has it in the bag anyway".

2) A small percentage of the Republican base has to either stay home or cast a protest vote in favor of Democrats on November 7. I've never been sold on the argument that Republican voters, in numbers of any significance, are too disillusioned to vote this fall. Even if it is true now, the Republican Party's massive financial warchest will be able to spend the next two weeks convincing them otherwise. Beyond that, the Republicans' finely-tuned GOTV apparatus will personally hold their apathetic neighbors/parishioners feet to the fire to make sure they vote. There is probably some merit to the hopes that some disenchanted Republicans will vote Democratic this year, but it's not exactly good news for the Democrats that their ability to survive as a party is dependent upon hard-core Republicans changing their minds. The bottom line is that the GOP base is larger than the Democratic base, so they almost have to have dissent within their ranks in order for us to win even at full turnout from our base.

3) Independent voters have to show up at the polls...and then vote Democratic by overwhelming majorities. With the unhelpful media rhetoric about a "Category 5 storm" for the Democrats, it's probably less likely that enough Democratic-leaning independents will show up to vote because this demographic is the softest group of voters and is disgruntled with both parties to where rewarding the Democratic Party may not be the message they choose to send on election day, particularly if they think their vote will be but a single shout in a chorus anyway, as the media would like for them to believe.

A common denominator hamstringing Democrats in these final two weeks of the campaign is the artificially optimistic expectations being set for them by the media, particularly in some badly-manipulated polls released of late that oversample Democrats by as much as 24 points (as was the case with Newsweek's recent poll). The Democrats have not led in voter affiliation by 24 points in decades. Any poll that samples self-identified Democrats by more than three or four points is worse than merely an erroneous outlier, it's an offering of ammunition to the opposition party who will be glad to use it 16 days from now to declare the Democratic party officially dead if it fails to win back at least one House of Congress.

Consider this: even in the GOP landslide of 1994, the Republican generic ballot advantage was only nine points. Last week's NBC/WSJ poll would have us believe that today, in the ugly polarized political environment of 2006 that didn't exist 12 years ago, the Democratic party has a generic ballot advantage of 15 points. If the Dems were to win a generic ballot victory of 15 points, at least 75 House seats would swing. Even the sunniest optimists and media storyline hunters don't expect that to happen. The only way such an erroneous generic ballot advantage number can be attained if through manipulation of poll data, specifically stacking the poll with disproportionate numbers of Democrats. Newsweek and NBC may think they're doing the Dems a favor by showing this groundswell of Democratic "momentum", my theory is that each of the three cited groups will respond unfavorably to the wishes of Democratic Party operatives upon hearing such data. Overconfident Democrats grow irrationally cocky, frightened Republicans get off of their butts and become more organized, and independents roll over on the couch and turn the TV to Grey's Anatomy.

The element of surprise is lost. Democrats no longer have the opportunity to sneak up on the GOP as Republicans snuck up on Democrats in 1994. I'd much rather have let that sleeping dog lie than have it scared into action. Unfortunately, my gut tells me the GOP pit bull is awakening and starting to growl, perhaps snatching some of that Democratic momentum from a week ago. It's gonna be hard to keep that pit bull from biting us for 15 more days.

Dems Poised to Score Big in Governor Races

Even the most GOP-friendly horse race analysts couldn't crunch numbers optimistically enough to paint a favorable picture for the party's prospects in this year's 36 gubernatorial races. Several GOP-held statehouses appear almost certain to slip into Democratic hands, and in some of the most heavily populated states in the nation at that. The Dems' likely successes in this year's gubernatorial races could potentially have a huge impact on national races in 2008, but more importantly, beyond. I'll speak in more detail on that after analyzing all of 2006's gubernatorial races, state by state.

Alabama--Republican incumbent Bob Riley was getting hammered from both sides mere months ago and was looking very vulnerable heading into the 2006 midterms. Democratic challenger Lucy Baxley is a fairly strong candidate on paper, but does not seem to be able to find a foothold against Riley, who is suddenly popular again, three years after infuriating conservatives with a ballot initiative that would have raised state income taxes. In a state growing more conservative and more religious with each passing year, I submit that Riley would have beaten Baxley or any Democrat even when hit bottom politically. Now that his popularity is once again insurgent, I suspect he'll win big. Prediction: Riley by 16.

Alaska--Six months ago, Democrats were giddy when wildly unpopular incumbent Republican Frank Murkowski decided to run for re-election, poised to face the popular former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles. Their storyline crumbled in August, however, when Murkowski proved so unpopular that he got smashed in his own party's primary. Now, Knowles will have to face Sarah Palin, an attractive young Republican who has been running ahead of Knowles in recent polls and looks poised to win right now. Prediction: Palin by 6.

Arizona--In one of the few Western states where the Democratic Party has not seen substantial gains in recent years, the gubernatorial race in Arizona is a rare bright spot. Incumbent Janet Napolitano is poised to win big over her faceless GOP opponent, potentially setting herself up as a top-tier contender for the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidacy in 2008. Prediction: Napolitano by 22.

Arkansas--Bucking the trend of the South so far this decade, Arkansas remains a bastion of moderate Democrats and appears poised to trade in retiring Republican Governor Mike Huckabee with a Democrat, current Attorney General Mike Beebe. Most striking about this race is that Beebe holds a double-digit leads in most polls, even up against a top-tier GOP challenger in former Congressman Asa Hutchinson. A significant victory by Beebe, as now looks likely could portend Arkansas as a battleground state in the 2008 Presidential candidate, particularly if a Southerner is the Democratic nominee. Prediction: Beebe by 8. (+1 for Dems)

California--The Democrats' biggest disappointment this cycle is their inability to take back the very blue state of California from Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, particularly when considering how weak Schwarzenegger was last year at this time. What happened? Schwarzenegger all but became a Democrat when realizing that's what it would take for him to get re-elected in California, shifting to the left in almost every conceivably way after voters rejected his right-wing reforms by wide margins in last fall's special elections. Furthermore, a weak Democratic candidate in State Treasurer Phil Angelides won a bitter primary against a more electable moderate, and has found it almost impossible to get any traction running against Arnold. One would think Californians would be wise enough to realize that Schwarzenegger will move immediately back to the right the day after the election, but it appears we're gonna find out because Schwarzenegger is almost certain to win, but look for turnout to be low in CA this year. Prediction: Schwarzenegger by 7.

Colorado--Here's a race that hasn't unfolded at all the way I expected it to. Two-term Republican Bob Beauprez Congressman has twice won in a Democratic-leaning district in suburban Denver, leading me to believe he'd have the edge against Democrat Bill Ritter. But Ritter is running as a centrist, pro-business Democrat and winning over some unusual allies disgruntled with some of the budget issues that have plagued the state under the direction of retiring GOP incumbent Bill Owens, and queasy about rewarding a Washington Republican like Beauprez. Colorado is a state that appears to moving fiercely and undeniably to the left, and the huge leads Ritter is seeing in nearly every poll seem likely to further that trend. Prediction: Ritter by 8. (+2 for Dems)

Connecticut--The state of Connecticut has some of the most schizophrenic races in the country this year. Their Senate race is essentially between two Democrats. Three moderate Republicans in the House are in danger of losing their seats because voters are miffed about another guy in their party named George Bush. Yet deflecting all of this anti-Republican furor in her state is Republican Governor Jodi Rell, who is one of the most popular Governor's in the country and is poised to win re-election by a huge margin next month. Prediction: Rell by 19.

Florida--Polls have been all over the place, but the conventional wisdom of a year ago and six months ago seems to be holding that increasingly Republican Florida will probably elect another Republican Governor in 2006. GOP Attorney General Charlie Crist has consistent leads of varying margins (depending on the poll) against Democratic Congressman Jim Davis. It's hard for me to put a finger on how close Davis will or will not get to Crist, but I'm fairly confident that Crist will prevail, regrettable as it is to see the Democratic Party continue to lose influence in fast-growing Florida. Prediction: Crist by 7.

Georgia--I don't think it's possible for Democrats to win statewide offices of any significance in the state of Georgia anymore, given the blistering growth of country club yuppies moving into Atlanta's suburbs and reinforcing the voting habits of the bubbas in rural Georgia. With that in mind, Democrat Mark Taylor probably never really had a chance to take out incumbent Republican Sonny Purdue if strongly-favored incumbent Democrat Roy Barnes couldn't handle Purdue four years ago. Prediction: Purdue by 11.

Hawaii--In a state that never elected a Republican prior to 2002, moderate GOP Governor Linda Lingle is poised to easily win a second term against a token Democratic challenger, potentially paving the way for Hawaii to become a two-party state in national politics as early as the 2010 Hawaii Senate race. Prediction: Lingle by 25.

Idaho--Republican Butch Otter is a cinch to win Idaho's open gubernatorial race, but will nonetheless have a bad evening if his open U.S. House race goes to the Democrats, which polls suggest is a possibility even in one of the most staunchly Republicans states on the map. Prediction: Otter by 27.

Illinois--When moderate Republican Judy Baar Topinka won the GOP primary last spring, I was convinced that unpopular incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich was going down. Thus far, however, it appears that Blago's vulnerabilities and widely expected ties to corruption scandals are not turning Illinois voters off as much as Topinka's abrasive personality and the sour mood against Republicans. Amazing, but apparently true as Blago leads Topinka by comfortable margins in every poll. Prediction: Blagojevich by 5.

Iowa--Another race I suspected would be sealed up for the Republicans by now that isn't. On paper, Republican Jim Nussle would seem like he should be walking all over Democratic challenger Chet Culver in the race to fill the shoes of retiring Democrat Tom Vilsack, but a handful of factors are keeping Culver in the game, and if certain polls are right, actually sitting on a small lead. Culver comes across as a lightweight politically, but conveys a nice guy, ray of sunshine personality that seems tacitly "gubernatorial". Beyond that, it's not a good year to be a Republican anywhere, but to be a Republican who has the baggage of being an active enabler of George Bush in Washington as Nussle does really adds to one's disadvantages. With all that in mind, this is a very tough call. The race is getting surprisingly little public scrutiny even here in Iowa. That favors Culver since the only way he can win is by flying under the radar and waiting out the clock. Still, I have to suspect that'll change in the final weeks of the debate, and anyone paying attention will realize that Nussle is running the stronger campaign. In the end, I suspect that will help him prevail by the narrowest of margins. I'd LOVE to be wrong though. Prediction: Nussle by 1 (+1 for Dems)

Kansas--In one of America's most reliably Republican states, incumbent Democrat Kathleen Sebelius is a shoo-in for a second term. Just goes to show how at odds statewide politics often are from national politics. Prediction: Sebelius by 14.

Maine--This race is by no means over, but it seems as though the combination of this shaping up to be a horrible year for Republicans and the solid conservatism of GOP challenger Chandler Woodcock will ultimately help less-than-popular Democratic incumbent John Baldacci score a default re-election victory. Prediction: Baldacci by 4.

Maryland--Even with enviable approval ratings in the mid-50's, Republican incumbent Bob Ehrlich is trailing Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley because of the rabidly anti-Republican tide sweeping the country, and of course the huge partisan advantage Democrats enjoy in Maryland. Ehrlich could still sneak out a win, but O'Malley's steady and consistent leads in every poll will be hard to overcome in three short weeks. Prediction: O'Malley by 4. (+2 for Dems)

Massachusetts--One has to feel kind of bad for current Lieutenant Governor and current Republican gubernatorial aspirant Kerry Healey. She's desperately trying to sneak out a victory running as a Republican in heavily Democratic Massachusetts against charismatic African-American challenger Deval Patrick, who has huge leads in the polls, but she also has to contend with her boss, current Governor Mitt Romney, moving radically to the right to endear himself to national Republicans as he seeks the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination. She also stands to lose votes to former Republican Christy Mihos, running as an independent and poised to split the already small non-Democrat vote in the state. At this point, it looks as though Deval Patrick will finally win back the statehouse of the most Democratic state in the nation for his party, the first Democratic Governor of the state since Michael Dukakis. Prediction: Patrick by 15. (+3 for Dems)

Michigan--Two months ago, it looked as though the Democratic incumbent, attractive rising star Jennifer Granholm, was in serious danger of being upset by Republican businessman Dick DeVos. Granholm could still be a casualty of DeVos' big money and Michigan's downward-spiraling economy, but her position has improved greatly since hitting the airwaves with ads. Michigan voters maybe unhappy with the declining state of their economy, but they're far more inclined to blame that situation on the policies of George Bush than Jennifer Granholm, and the policies of Bush are by and large the same policies pushed by DeVos. It'll be close, but I'm guessing Granholm squeaks by, thanks to the Democrats' national momentum. Prediction: Granholm by 2.

Minnesota--I'm amazed that Democrat Mike Hatch is not only holding his own among modestly popular Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty, but actually sitting on a small lead. But knowing Minnesota politics first-hand, I remain pessimistic. Pawlenty is a good debater, and the only statewide televised debate is coming later this month. The last two Minnesota gubernatorial races have swung wildly based on debate performances. The entertaining and left-leaning Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson also stands to gain from the debates, almost exclusively at Mike Hatch's expense. My confidence about Pawlenty's ability to bounce back diminishes with each passing week of stagnant or declining poll numbers, but being familiar with both Pawlenty and Minnesota voters, I still have to fall on the side of a Pawlenty victory at the end of the day, made possible by a showing in the 7-10% range for Peter Hutchinson. Prediction: Pawlenty by 3.

Nebraska--Considering interim Republican Governor Dave Heineman managed to take down legendary Cornhuskers coach Tom Osborn, to most people's surprise, in last spring's Republican primary. He'll have no problem smacking down Democratic challenger David Hahn in the general election. Prediction: Heineman by 33.

Nevada--It appears likely that retiring Republican Kenny Guinn will be replaced by another Republican. GOP Congressman Jim Gibbons is the exception as a Washington Republican running in a gubernatorial race who is not being punished for it. Democratic challenger Dina Titus is within striking distance in some polls, but my money's on a modest victory for Gibbons. Prediction: Gibbons by 6.

New Hampshire--Incumbent Democrat Governor John Lynch is wildly popular in this Democratic-trending but fiscally conservative New England state, and should score an easy second term. Prediction: Lynch by 32.

New Mexico--Democratic incumbent Bill Richardson could buoy his 2008 Presidential ambitions if he scores the kind of blowout victory he's expected to in his quest for a second term in the New Mexico statehouse. Prediction: Richardson by 20.

New York--Open seats are not supposed to be landslides, but New York's gubernatorial race certainly is. Wildly popular Democratic Attorney General Elliot Spitzer is poised to score a 2-1 victory against Republican challenger John Faso to fill the seat of three-term GOP incumbent George Pataki. Prediction: Spitzer by 30. (+4 for Dems)

Ohio--Another open seat that looks to result in a landslide victory for Democrats. Retiring Republican Bob Taft will leave office in disgrace after pleading no contest to corruption charges, and is acting as an albatross around the necks of Republicans across the state of Ohio this fall. No Republican is suffering more from Taft's long shadow than this year's Republican candidate, polarizing African-American conservative Ken Blackwell. Blackwell's campaign is all but over as strong Democratic challenger is Ted Strickland, a moderate Democrat from the state's rural southern side who draws a great deal of support from Republicans and is almost certain to score a decisive victory in three weeks. Prediction: Strickland by 13. (+5 for Dems)

Oklahoma--Another popular Democratic Governor in a deeply Republican state is Brad Henry, incumbent Governor of Oklahoma who is sitting very strong in a race against a strong Republican challenger, Oklahoma City Congressman Ernest Istook. It may end up being closer than polls currently indicate simply because of the Republican strength in Oklahoma, but it seems unlikely that Henry will be beatable this year. Prediction: Henry by 10.

Oregon--There are several weak Democratic incumbents in gubernatorial races this fall, and perhaps none weaker than Oregon's Ted Kulongoski, who has a small lead in most polls against GOP challenger Ron Saxton. But with re-elect numbers hovering as low as the high 30's, Kulongoski has more than his share of critics and Oregon has enough undecided voters to make this race a true battleground. One would have to give a slight edge to Kulongoski just because of the expected Democratic tide nationally, but I expect this one to go down to the wire and would not be surprised at all if Saxton pulled it out. Prediction: Kulongoski by 2.

Pennsylvania--For a brief while following the Pittsburgh Steelers' Super Bowl win, Hall of Famer Lynn Swann was a very attractive candidate who seemed poised to put up a heckuva fight against incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell in the PA gubernatorial race. But a series of gaffes and a lackluster campaign has tanked Swann's campaign, and he's never been able to recover that lost ground. The consummate politician Rendell wouldn't have been an easy dragon to slay even if Swann had been as strong of a candidate as the GOP had originally hoped, but given how disappointing Swann has been, this race has been in the bag for Rendell for months now. Prediction: Rendell by 15.

Rhode Island--Polls are all over the place in this deep blue state where moderate Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri is generally thought to have a modest lead against Democratic challenger Jack Fogarty. It's clear that the Republican Party is in miserable standing among Rhode Island voters this year, so it's not out of the question for Fogarty to pull off an upset, but for now my money is on Carcieri hanging on. Prediction: Carcieri by 3.

South Carolina--Republican Mark Sanford is not exactly Mr. Popularity as the incumbent Governor of crimson red South Carolina, and as a result Democratic challenger Tommy Moore is within striking distance in a couple of polls. At the end of the day, however, I can't imagine South Carolina electing a Democrat to any level of statewide government no matter what the mood is nationally. Sanford will have an easy victory even though his support is soft. Prediction: Sanford by 9.

South Dakota--Republican incumbent Mike Rounds is being held surprisingly harmless by South Dakota voters for the intense division regarding the state's proposed abortion ban, despite being the guy who signed the bill into law earlier this spring. Democratic challenger Jack Billion can't seem to get a foothold in a state that has a knee-jerk association with the Republican Party in state politics. Considering the brouhaha likely to emerge with whichever way the abortion vote goes, Billion may end up glad that Rounds is the guy who has to deal with the headache. Prediction: Rounds by 17.

Tennessee--Conservative Democratic incumbent Phil Bredesen is bucking the trendline of his state, not only by being a Democrat in an increasingly red state, but an enormously popular one poised to win re-election by at least 20 points. Bredesen may be too conservative for national Democratic politics, but perhaps the Dems should give him a look nonetheless as a potential antidote to their growing electoral woes in Dixie. Prediction: Bredesen by 23.

Texas--One of the most intriguing gubernatorial races in the country, the crowded field of Texas features four candidates all likely to poll in double digits. Republican incumbent Rick Perry's popularity is in freefall, but he's still sitting pretty in his quest for re-election as his challengers are sufficiently dividing the anti-Perry vote (which is more than 60% of the collective vote in Texas) . Efforts have been made by Democrat Chris Bell to talk quirky center-left Independent candidate Kinky Friedman out of the race, but the efforts have been unsuccessful thus far. And the center-right has a candidate of their own in Independent Carole Strayhorn. The far-right base of oil barons and evangelical nutballs will be all Perry needs to hang on for another four years with as little as 35% of the vote. Prediction: Perry by 14.

Vermont--Liberal Vermont will defy conventional wisdom yet again this fall by electing a self-proclaimed Socialist to the United States Senate along with a Republican to the Governor's mansion. The Republican in question is moderate incumbent Jim Douglas, who seems poised to handily score a second term over Democratic challenger Scudder Parker. Prediction: Douglas by 13.

Wisconsin--Polls are inconclusive, but the general consensus is that incumbent Democrat Jim Doyle is favored despite his lukewarm reception by the state's voters. Doyle can likely thank national momentum for Democrats if he pulls it out against his GOP challenger, Green Bay-area Congressman Mark Green. Beyond that, Wisconsin already has a Republican-dominated Legislature and the state seems far too moderate and politically divided to choose in favor of a conservative Republican Governor that will rubber stamp the Legislature's every whim. Doyle will likely win by default, but will win nonetheless. Prediction: Doyle by 5.

Wyoming--Yet another case of a popular Democratic Governor in one of the nation's most Republican states, there is nobody who expects Democratic incumbent Dave Freudenthal to be toppled even though he lives in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly 3-1. Prediction: Freudenthal by 27.


There are my predictions. The Dems are poised to win back five gubernatorial races if my predictions pan out, which will give Democrats the advantage in statehouse control for the first time in well over a decade. Unfortunately, statehouse control will be most important in the next round of midterms in 2010, just before new U.S. Census results will result in the next round of Congressional gerrymanders, which are usually engineered by Governor's and Legislatures state-by-state. If the Dems hang onto some of the wins they will likely pull off in 2006, their prospects of being competitive in House races in 2012 and beyond will be respectable. But if the GOP controls the statehouses and legislatures in key battleground states in 2010 as they did in 2000, the Democratic Party stands to be even more politically ghettoized than they have been so far this decade. Scary stuff, and all the more reason why Democrats need win and keep on winning these gubernatorial elections.

Will Voters Help Nancy Pelosi "Drain the Swamp" in the House?

Everybody from Charlie Cook to Sean Hannity has publicly declared this past week that the Democrats are poised to take back the House of Representatives on November 7. Cook, the most respected horserace analyst in the business, has gone so far to predict a "Category 5 storm" rushing to the shores of the Republican-controlled body, mired in scandal and low public approval ratings. Of course, everybody prefaces these bold predictions with the addendum that "any number of things can change between now and Election Day that would shift the momentum back to the Republicans." Most expect that to be the case, but still question whether the GOP has any chance of preserving control of the House having already all but ceded three otherwise safely Republican seats to the Democrats.

Here's my take on how things will unfold, with brief analysis of every race that is even on the radar screen of competitiveness....

Arizona, District 1--Modestly popular Republican incumbent Rick Renzi was considered a safe bet for re-election in his swing district in the state's rural northeast side entailing several of Arizona's vast Indian reservations....until the last couple of weeks that is. Democratic challenger Ellen Simon held a small lead in a recent poll. I don't know much in the way of specifics about this race since it's been beneath just about everybody's radar screen, but the poll strikes me at the gut level as overly optimistic for Simon. If Renzi were to be defeated, it would easily be on the biggest upsets of the evening, but I'm still expecting Renzi to pull this out, albeit by a smaller margin than he defeated Paul Babbitt in 2004. Prediction: Renzi by 6.

Arizona, District 5--Harry Mitchell, the popular Democratic Mayor of Tempe, is putting up a spirited campaign against hard-core Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth in this GOP-leaning district in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix, but every poll shows Mitchell falling short. In the end, this seat will probably be viewed as too much for the Democrats to ask for even in a "tsunami" year. Prediction: Hayworth by 8.

Arizona, District 8--I've seen enough data at this point to trust the conventional wisdom that conservative GOP candidate Randy Graf is unelectable in this swing district on the Mexican border, even with his hard-line immigration position. The ethics controversy now facing retiring Republican Jim Kolbe regarding the Mark Foley page scandal is only likely to add to the momentum of the attractive centrist Democrat Gabrielle Giffords. The NRCC gave up on this seat after Graf won the primary, and it looks to be perhaps the best pickup opportunity in the country for Democrats. Prediction: Giffords by 12. (+1 for Dems)

California, District 4--Ties to the Abramoff scandal plague popular Republican incumbent John Doolittle in this strongly conservative rural district in northeastern California. Despite the cartoonish name, Doolittle faces a strong challenger this time in military Democrat Charlie Brown. Recent polling shows Doolittle holding a comfortable lead, but it's still possible this seat could swing to Brown. The guilty plea by fellow Abramoff conspirator Bob Ney this week certainly won't help Doolittle's cause. Still, I think he'll squeak by for another term. Prediction: Doolittle by 6.

California, District 11--Scandal-plagued Republican incumbent Richard Pombo is facing a stronger-than-expected challenge in his GOP-leaning agriculture-heavy district in central California from Democratic challenger Jerry McNerney. With a hotly-contested race at the top of the ticket in California, Pombo could be in some serious trouble, but the flameout of Phil Angelides in the gubernatorial race doesn't bode well for the kind of Democratic turnout needed to unseat Pombo. In the end, I suspect Pombo wins, albeit by his narrowest margin in years. Prediction: Pombo by 5.

California, District 50--If Democrat Francine Busby couldn't beat Republican Brian Bilbray in a summer special election with the entire apparatus of the Democratic Party at her disposal and a GOP predecessor serving a prison term for his corruption scandal, she has no chance at all to win in November with the party over her no help and Bilbray with the advantage of incumbency in a solidly GOP district full of country club Republicans. Prediction: Bilbray by 13.

Colorado, District 3--Republicans had high hopes last year at this time of unseating freshman Democrat John Salazar in his Republican-leaning district (but leaning that way less so with each passing election cycle) in western Colorado ski country. No polls thus far have shown Republican challenger Scott Tipton within striking distance. The fact that national Republicans seem to have all but written Tipton off, it's very likely Salazar could win by a wider margin than was even expected. Prediction: Salazar by 12.

Colorado, District 4--Far-right Republican ideologue Marilyn Musgrave had a bit of a scare in 2004 when she won a second term by an extremely modest margin in this conservative ranch district in eastern Colorado. This year, Musgrave faces a potentially stiffer challenge from Democratic state legislator Angie Paccionne. Musgrave could suffer from the counter-coattails of the Colorado gubernatorial race, which is looking more and more like a blowout for the Democrats. Sooner or later, demographic shifts to the northern Denver suburbs/exurbs will make this district ripe for Democratic competitiveness, but I don't think we're there yet. Paccionne is within striking distance in the polls, but I'm betting she won't be able to seal the deal due to the partisan disadvantage she faces. Prediction: Musgrave by 4.

Colorado, District 5--Democrats are as giddy as school girls about the competitiveness of their strong candidate, military veteran Jay Fawcett, in this open seat in Colorado's most conservative district. Controversial Republican Doug Lamborn is generating plenty of bad mojo in his party, including that of retiring incumbent Joel Hefley, who hates Lamborn so much that he actually mulled a third-party run against him. Indeed, polls show Lamborn and Fawcett locked in a dead heat with more than a quarter of voters undecided. But let's get real....this is James Dobson country and the home of conservative Peterson A.F.B. Boosting Fawcett from a 37% poll showing to the 50% he'll need to win will be nearly impossible in a district that's more than 2-1 Republican. It'll be a hollow victory, but Lamborn will pull it out fairly comfortably in the end. Prediction: Lamborn by 13.

Colorado, District 7--Polls have been erratic in this Democratic-leaning district in the western suburbs of Denver, being vacated by retiring Republican Bob Beauprez. Conventional wisdom is that Democrat Ed Perlmutter is running ahead of GOP challenger Rick O'Donnell, but I'm not convinced it's a slam dunk at this point. Nonetheless, I'll go with Perlmutter to win a seat long-considered one of the Democrats' best pick-up opportunities in the country. Prediction: Perlmutter by 4. (+2 for Dems)

Connecticut, District 2--The bluest district in the country held by a Republican in the House, Connecticut's rural east side faces the choice of their moderate GOP incumbent, Rob Simmons, or his challenger, Democrat Joe Courtney. Any other year, Simmons would win in a walk, and there's still the chance that he may this year. Once seen as a must-win for the Democrats to win the House, the map has opened up a bit and put several other seats in play, reducing the need for the Dems to unseat Simmons. They may need that as polls are conflicting as to how much trouble Simmons is in. Nonetheless, I'm sensing a furious "blue" tide in the northeast that will likely wash away Simmons, but narrowly. Prediction: Courtney by 2. (+3 for Dems)

Connecticut, District 4--Moderate Republican Christopher Shays seems to be in more imminent danger than Simmons in his affluent southwestern Connecticut district. Shays remains personally popular in the area, but war-weary voters in the region who came within four points of turning Shays out in 2004 against photogenic then-and-now challenger Diane Farrell seems poised to finish the job in 2006, barring a gaffe by Farrell. Polling data has been inconclusive, but Shays' desperation seems evident with every public statement he makes, particularly his attempt to resurrect Ted Kennedy's 40-year-old scandal and deflect accountability away from GOP Congressional leaders over Mark Foley. Prediction: Farrell by 4. (+4 for Dems)

Connecticut, District 5--I'm not optimistic about the Democrats getting the royal flush in Connecticut because I expect long-time incumbent Nancy Johnson to prevail over Iraq war vet Chris Murphy in her northwestern Connecticut district, which is the palest shade of blue of the state's five districts. Murphy's within striking distance and is likely to give Johnson a run for her money, but I don't see him sealing the deal. Prediction: Johnson by 4.

Florida, District 9--This Republican-leaning district in the northwestern exurbs of Tampa-St. Petersburg is only nominally a battleground district, and only because it's an open seat with a GOP candidate vulnerable to charges of nepotism. Republican Gus Bilirakis, son of retiring Congressman Michael, nonetheless seems poised to score an easy victory against Democratic rival Phyllis Busansky. Prediction: Bilirakis by 11.

Florida, District 13--One of the biggest surprises in the country in the last month is the strength of Democratic nominee Christine Jennings in this heavily GOP district in southwestern Florida, currently represented by Katherine Harris. I was one of the few who mentioned it as a potential battleground last year at this time, and it appears my instinct was right as she now has a modest lead in the polls against GOP challenger Vern Buchanan. I'm extremely hesitant to call this race for Jennings given the strong Republican tilt of the district, but the anecdotal evidence is getting harder to ignore and I suspect Jennings will squeak it out. Prediction: Jennings by 1. (+5 for Dems).

Florida, District 16--It seems like a lifetime ago at this point, but it's only been 15 days since the safe GOP-held Congressional district in the West Palm Beach area was thrown on its head with the resignation of alleged child predator Mark Foley. Almost immediately, Republicans gave up on the prospect of hanging onto this seat and all but conceded it to Democratic challenger Tim Mahoney, seeing as how Foley will remain on the ballot and supporters of his replacement candidate would have to vote for the disgraced Foley to elect the replacement. A tall order to be sure, but the polls indicate that "Foley" stands to get a far better showing than the shellacking I originally predicted, even though this district isn't THAT Republican. The most recent poll shows Mahoney with a fairly soft (given the circumstances) seven-point advantage. In the end, I can't imagine voters being able to pull the lever for Foley once they get in the voting booth, but I also don't expect this seat will be the freebie Dems are expecting. Prediction: Mahoney by 6. (+6 for Dems)

Florida, District 22--Once considered the only battleground House race we were likely to see in Florida, I would now rank the faceoff between long-time GOP incumbent Clay Shaw and strong Democratic challenger Ron Klein as only being the third most likely pick-up opportunity for Democrats in Florida. Despite this Gold Coast district's Democratic lean, bipartisan allegiance to Shaw does not seem to be wavering enough to unseat him. Prediction: Shaw by 5.

Georgia, District 8--A year ago at this time, Democrats were mightily concerned about the plight of conservative Democrat Jim Marshall, whose central Georgia district was gerrymandered to become even more Republican. Adding insult to injury, former GOP Congressman Mac Collins came out of retirement to challenge Marshall. I was the first to predict Marshall's day in Congress were over. Now it looks like he'll survive as every poll indicates Marshall holds a significant lead even in a district that voted for George Bush by 22 points two years ago. The threat of a Democratic takeover of the House will probably swing some voters over to Collins in the final weeks, but I still expect Marshall to hang on. Prediction: Marshall by 6.

Georgia, District 12--Democrat John Barrow also saw his eastern Georgia district become more Republican (or in the case of this Kerry-voting district, less Democratic) after a 2005 gerrymander. He also faces a re-match against a man he narrowly beat in 2004, Max Burns. For whatever reason, the conservative Burns has his share of loyalists in the region and it's hard to predict what kind of advantage Burns will have in the district's new territory. The lack of competitive statewide races in Georgia is likely to suppress black turnout, which could also hurt Barrow. I was more optimistic about this race early on, but now am predicting the narrowest of victories for the conservative Democrat Barrow. Prediction: Barrow by 1.

Idaho, District 1--No that's not a misprint. This district in northern Idaho which voted 69% Bush in 2004 is a true battleground in 2006, with Democrat Larry Grant benefitting mightily from the split in GOP ranks over controversial uber-conservative Republican candidate Bill Sali, who narrowly won a hotly-contested primary. Legislative colleagues routinely deride Sali and his opponents refuse to endorse him, giving Grant a credible chance of a wild upset (the most recent poll showed Sali leading by three points, within the margin of error). In the end, I think fear of a Democratic Congressional takeover will end up boosting Sali, but it's nonetheless a nightmare scenario for national Republicans to have to invest limited financial resources to hang onto an open House seat in frickin' Idaho. Prediction: Sali by 9.

Illinois, District 6--This affluent suburban Chicago district vacated by Henry Hyde has turned out to be every bit the hotly-contested battleground it was expected to be, pitting popular GOP legislator Peter Roskam against Iraq war veteran and double amputee Tammy Duckworth. There's little argument that Roskam is the better politician of the two, with Duckworth straddling the fence on a number of issues and generally trying to ride her way into office based on a sympathetic personal story the same way Patty Wetterling is doing in Minnesota. Nonetheless, Duckworth seems competent enough to hold her own and polls are showing a neck-and-neck slugfest. Ultimately, Duckworth's evasion of debates is likely to catch up with her, and hand Roskam a modest win in a seat he would have won by double-digits against an average Dem challenger. Prediction: Roskam by 3.

Illinois, District 8--The Chamber of Commerce's favorite Democrat, Melissa Bean, is considered one of the few highly vulnerable Democrats this cycle given the GOP's strong partisan advantage in this affluent, yuppie-populated district in Chicago's northern exurbs. Bean won by default in 2004 when she was running against the senile, alcoholic incumbent Phil Crane, but will have to earn her victory this time against a more competent challenger, David McSweeney. In the end, I suspect Bean's Democrat-ultralite profile will help her peel off enough Republican voters to narrowly win, but it'll still be close. On the first ugly year for Congressional Democrats post-2006, expect Bean to succumb to defeat, but it probably won't happen this time. Prediction: Bean by 3.

Illinois, District 10--Even though this district in the northern suburbs of Chicago went fairly comfortably for John Kerry in 2004, it doesn't seem likely to derail Republican incumbent Mark Kirk in 2006. Kirk has an affable and photogenic African-American opponent in Dan Seals (no, not the country singer), but Seals just can't seem to make any headway against Kirk. Prediction: Kirk by 8.

Illinois, District 17--The decision by long-time incumbent Democrat Lane Evans to retire from his Democratic-leaning blue-collar district centered around the Rock Island-Moline area opened up this seat to potential competitiveness. The Democrats eventually settled upon a candidate, whose name escapes me, that is expected to have an easy time of winning against Republican newswoman Andrea Zinga. Given that this district is by no means a sure bet for Democrats, I'm surprised Republicans didn't put more effort into helping Zinga, but at this point it seems almost certain that the seat will stay in Democratic hands. Prediction: (Democrat) by 8.

Indiana, District 2--Another huge surprise this cycle is the strength of the challenge being waged against two-term Republican incumbent Chris Chocola, who is trailing in most polls in his bid for re-election in this South Bend-area district in northern Indiana that is usually comfortably Republican. Democratic challenger Joe Donnelly came out of nowhere and into a lead, and appears to be deflecting criticisms of his previous property tax delinquency that have been brought up by Republicans. Given the consistent anecdotal evidence working to Donnelly's advantage, I have to call this race for him. Prediction: Donnelly by 3. (+7 for Dems)

Indiana, District 8--Conservative Democrat Brad Ellsworth is now looking very strong in his efforts to oust Republican incumbent John Hostettler, a long-time Democratic bogeyman representing a strongly GOP district in southwestern Indiana. Thus far, attempts to connect the dots between Ellsworth and the ascendancy of Nancy Pelosi do not seem to be working. I've been bullish on this race from the beginning, and now expect it to be an early indicator of how the night will go on November 7. Polls close early in Indiana. If Ellsworth is declared the winner of IN-08 within an hour of the polls closing (that would be 6 p.m. central time), the Republicans are likely to be in for a horrible night. Prediction: Ellsworth by 6 (+8 for Dems)

Indiana, District 9--Right next door in southeastern Indiana is a rematch between former Democratic representative Baron Hill and the Republican who narrowly unseated him in the GOP year of 2004, Mike Sodrel. Certainly, 2006 is not looking to be a good year for Indiana Republicans the way that 2004 was, meaning Sodrel should be the weakest of the three endangered Republicans in trouble this year. Polls don't necessarily suggest Sodrel is doomed, but Hill has a lead in just about every poll and I expect that he'll pull off a narrow victory and reclaim the House seat Sodrel took away from him. Prediction: Hill by 3 (+9 for Dems)

Iowa, District 1--An open seat vacated by Republican Jim Nussle, this eastern Iowa district is favorable turf for Democrats with John Kerry winning by 7 points in 2004. Most polls show Democrat Bruce Braley with a lead over Republican Mike Whalen, but it's a tougher call than one would think given the geography of this district and its candidates. In the end, I'm calling it for Braley. Prediction: Braley by 4. (+10 for Dems)

Iowa, District 2--An even more favorable district for Democrats, going for John Kerry by 11 points, any other Republican would be toast in this blue-collar southeastern Iowa district, but longtime liberal GOP incumbent Jim Leach has compiled the seniority, respect, and independent voting record to compel voters to cross party lines in his favor. A poll last week showed Leach with a stunningly soft one-point lead over Democratic challenger Dave Loebsack, but I think it's an outlier. I can't see Leach losing. Prediction: Leach by 9.

Iowa, District 3--In central Iowa, conservative Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell is one of the few vulnerable Democrats, due to his recent health problems and his strong Republican challenger Jeff Lamberti. Any other year, Lamberti would probably get the better of Boswell, who is not a natural politician and pales next to Lamberti on the stage. But Lamberti's message of "voting for change" by electing an unapologetic rubber stamp for the Bush administration seems like a tough sell in moderate central Iowa this year. Boswell has held modest leads in the polls, but I do expect the endless barrage of mostly unanswered negative ads against him will take their toll by election day. I'm predicting Boswell, but would not be surprised if Lamberti pulled it out. Prediction: Boswell by 3.

Kansas, District 2--Internal Democratic polls are showing surpisingly strong numbers for Democrat Nancy Boyda in her longshot bid to unseat GOP incumbent Jim Ryun in this solidly GOP district in northeastern Kansas. Boyda did respectably when challenging Ryun in 2004, so I guess it's possible she's within striking distance, but I'm still expecting a comfortable Ryun victory at the end of the day. Prediction: Ryun by 8.

Kentucky, District 2--Military Democrat Mike Weaver makes a special point of reminding voters "he's not one of those liberals" every chance he gets, to the point of making an ass out of himself last week. Weaver is nonetheless considered a modestly strong candidate who could potentially take down long-time GOP incumbent Ron Lewis, but I can't see it happening in this deep-red pocket of western Kentucky encroaching upon tobacco farms, bluegrass country, and Fort Knox, which George Bush won by nearly 2-1 in 2004. Lewis will win handily. Prediction: Lewis by 14.

Kentucky, District 3--Democrats have been trying for more than a decade now to unseat Republican Anne Northup in this Democrat-leaning Louisville district, always falling short. The current political climate has made them confident 2006 will finally be the year as Democratic challenger John Yarmouth is polling strongly and taking advantage of a surprisingly fierce anti-GOP climate on both sides of the conservative Ohio River Valley. In the end, however, I expect Northup will squeak it out like she always does. But watch this one. Kentucky is the first state in the nation to close its polls. If Yarmouth is leading early, it's gonna a good night for Dems. Prediction: Northup by 4.

Kentucky, District 4--Moving to the northeast from Louisville to metropolitan Cincinnati, Democrats have a strong candidate in a very Republican district. The candidate is former Congressman Ken Lucas, an affable conservative Democrat who represented the district for six years in Congress before retiring in 2004. Replacing him was Republican Geoff Davis who now faces Lucas in a rematch of their competitive 2002 race. The Democratic leaning rural areas in Appalachia will have to come out strong for Lucas to offset the growing Republican advantage in the southern suburbs of Cincinnati. I was originally bullish about Lucas, but now I'm leaning towards Davis pulling this one out. Prediction: Davis by 4.

Louisiana, District 3--Despite the demographic uncertainties that shook up Louisiana post-Katrina, it appears as though there will only be one hotly-contested Congressional race in the state this year, in the seat held by one-term Democratic incumbent Charlie Melancon in the state's storm-ravaged southeastern corner. Finally last week, a public poll was released showing Melancon with a nearly 2-1 lead over Republican challenger Craig Romero. It appears that the conventional wisdom was correct that Melancon won over his constituents with his handling of the CAFTA trade agreement, fiercely opposed by the area's sugar industry, and his efforts to hold the Bush administration's feet to the fire over their Katrina relief bumbling. I doubt the predicted blowout will come to fruition in this conservative district, but I am no longer worried about Melancon's potential defeat. Prediction: Melancon by 8.

Michigan, District 7--Considering how ugly Michigan's economy is, there's very little volatility in the state's House races this cycle, mostly the product of favorable GOP gerrymanders enacted in the John Engler era. One race with the potential of competitive is District 7 in south-central Michigan which leans Republican, but not substantially so. Republican incumbent Joe Schwarz was beaten in the primary by conservative challenger Tim Walberg. The Dems would probably be more optimistic about their chances in this open seat if their own candidate was someone other than Sharon Renier, who even unwavering partisans at the Daily Kos consider to be weak and unelectable. Based on the complete lack of buzz surrounding this race, I have no choice but to agree. Prediction: Walberg by 9.

Michigan, District 9--Some private polling has shown Republican incumbent Joe Knollenberg could be vulnerable in this Oakland County swing district, but the complete lack of buzz surrounding Democratic challenger Nancy Skinner makes me doubt that Knollenberg will be beatable. Prediction: Knollenberg by 11.

Michigan, District 11--Early on, there was some positive buzz surrounding the candidacy of local radio talk show host Tony Trupiano running as a Democrat against incumbent Republican Thaddeus McCotter in this slightly GOP-leaning district in the northwestern suburbs of Detroit. Lackluster fundraising and campaign organizations have faded Trupiano's star considerably though, and few people consider McCotter to be seriously endangered. Prediction: McCotter by 14.

Minnesota, District 1--The early signs were promising, and a spate of recent polls now confirm that military Democrat Tim Walz is the real deal in his effort to unseat GOP incumbent Gil Gutknecht, who is emerging as surprisingly weak this cycle in his slightly lean-Republican district in southern Minnesota. In the end, however, I think Gutknecht's name ID advantage will carry the day, but he'll have to put out some better TV ads than the lackluster one he has out right now to remind voters of his recent independent streak, which will be warmly-received if advertised. Don't count Walz out just yet though. He's running a great campaign. Prediction: Gutknecht by 5.

Minnesota, District 2--Some polls have indicated Democratic challenger and former Time magazine Person of the Year Coleen Rowley is within striking distance of incumbent Republican John Kline in this safely Republican district in the southern suburbs and exurbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul. I can't see a Democrat winning here no matter how strong the partisan tide, but Rowley will probably hold Kline to single digits, which is progress I guess. Prediction: Kline by 9.

Minnesota, District 6--The marquee House race in Minnesota is in this conservative exurban district north of Minneapolis-St. Paul, pitting liberal child advocate Patty Wetterling against conservative wingnut legislator Michele Bachmann. I have long predicted that Bachmann is too conservative even for this solidly Republican district in Minnesota, but polls are inconclusive and I sense that Wetterling has not taken advantage of the opportunity to define Bachmann as the crazy that she is, which she has to do to win over these Republican voters. The Mark Foley scandal provided another opening for Wetterling with her background in child safety issues, but it's a fine line between working one's resume for all it's worth and exploiting something for political gain. In this district, I fear more voters will see Patty's move as opportunistic. This race is still volatile given Patty's weak campaigning skills and Bachmann's wild and crazy mouth, but I have to give the odds to Bachmann at this point. Prediction: Bachmann by4.

Nebraska, District 1--With Ben Nelson apparently poised to score a healthy victory in his Senate race, there could conceivably be some coattail benefits for his former Lieutenant Governor Maxine Moul, running against one-term incumbent Jeff Fortenberry in this Lincoln-area House seat. Few people think Moul will win, but no polling data has been made available confirming or refuting the strength of her challenge either. Still, this is Nebraska, so one has to give the odds to the Republican candidate. Prediction: Fortenberry by 13.

Nebraska, District 3--One of the most interesting candidates running on the Democratic ticket this year is Scott Kleeb, a young rancher from western Nebraska who makes the ladies swoon. Anywhere else in the country, Cowboy Kleeb would likely pull out a victory in an open seat, but this seat vacated by Republican Tom Osborne is in one of the most Republican Congressional districts in the country. Kleeb is within striking distance of Republican challenger Adrian Smith in polls, but at the end of the day, a district that went for Bush by 75% will not vote for a Democratic Congressmen two years later in the current hyperpolarized political climate. Kleeb may have a future in Nebraska politics, but it doesn't seem likely it'll be representing NE-03 in Congress. Prediction: Smith by 14.

Nevada, District 2--Some polls have suggested Democrat Jill Derby is within striking distance of Republican opponent Dean Heller in this strongly Republican district in upstate Nevada vacated by GOP gubernatorial candidate Jim Gibbons. Heller narrowly won a three-way primary victory and was probably the best candidate in the race. In a serious upset, Derby could emerge victorious, but the odds are extremely against it. Prediction: Heller by 8.

Nevada, District 3--In this swing district on the north side of the Las Vegas metro area, Republican incumbent Jon Porter faces young Democratic challenger Tessa Hafen, who has worked with Senator Harry Reid. Polls have shown Porter with a modest if unsubstantial lead, which I expect will hold up even if the Democrats are shocking the world on November 7. The apparent GOP momentum in both the Senate and gubernatorial races will not help Hafen's cause any. Prediction: Porter by 8.

New Hampshire, District 1--Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley may have been vulnerable in his swing district in eastern New Hampshire, but the weaker Democratic challenger, anti-war activist Carol Shea-Porter, prevailed in her party's primary, essentially making the race a coronation for Bradley. Prediction: Bradley by 21.

New Hampshire, District 2--Democrat Paul Hodes, favorite candidate of the netroots activists, is putting forth a surprisingly strong challenge to incumbent Republican Charlie Bass in this Democrat-trending western New Hampshire district. Bass was still poised to win, but some recent off-color remarks insulting his neighbors in Vermont and New York City will have him on defense for awhile, potentially giving Hodes the opening he needs to win. I still think Bass will pull it out in the end though. Prediction: Bass by 6.

New Jersey, District 7--The only seriously contested House district in New Jersey this year is this affluent district in the southwestern exurbs of Newark and Jersey City, which are of course all attached to the New York City area. Republican incumbent Mike Ferguson faces a strong challenge from Democratic opponent Linda Stender. Polls show it close, but with Ferguson maintaining a lead. New Jersey has a long-standing reputation of closing strong for Democrats, but I'm not convinced Stender will be a beneficiary of that this year. Prediction: Ferguson by 5.

New Mexico, District 1--For the longest time, I was frustrated with the small but consistent leads posted by Republican incumbent Heather Wilson over New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid, her Democratic challenger in this hotly-contested Democratic-leaning district in metropolitan Albuquerque. If the Democrats weren't winning in this race, I told myself, they wouldn't be winning elsewhere in the country. Thankfully, Madrid now seems to have the momentum and polls trending her way. I'm now expecting she'll prevail in this contest, once again no thanks to the widely-hyped surge in "Latino voters" that simply hasn't happened. Prediction: Madrid by 3. (+11 for Dems)

New York, District 3--I never took seriously the challenge by Democrat Dave Meijas to Long Island's last-standing Republican, long-time incumbent Peter King, until recent poll numbers showed Meijas nipping at King's heels. I also never took seriously this long-advertised premise of Democrats sweeping multiple Republican-held House districts in New York. King's apparently vulnerability could prove wrong because if King is in trouble in New York, most other Republicans surely are as well. Nonetheless, I expect King will prevail as his district continues to lean Republican. Prediction: King by 7.

New York, District 19--Republican incumbent Sue Kelly from the northern exurbs of New York City was expected to prevail because the crowded Democratic primary field would leave a Dem nominee with limited funds and plenty of critics. The nominee ended up being musician John Hall, who doesn't strike me as a top-tier candidate. He'll likely get closer to Kelly than her usual opponents do, simply because of the Democratic tide this year, but he'll come well short of unseating her. Prediction: Kelly by 11.

New York, District 20--I've always scratched my head why Democrats think thought this district in northeastern New York, one of the state's most reliably Republican, was seriously ripe for a takeover. The Dems do have a strong and attractive candidate in Kirsten Gillibrand, but she does not seem to have convinced voters that Republican incumbent John Sweeney deserves to get the heave-ho. In the end, I suspect the Dems will be sorry they wasted so many resources here. Prediction: Sweeney by 9.

New York, District 24--This was the only top-tier pick-up opportunity for Democrats in New York pre-Mark Foley in this central New York open seat vacated by Sherwood Boehlert, one of the last of the true Rockefeller Republicans. Even though this district leans narrowly GOP, this is not a good year to be trying to win an open seat in New York as a Republican. I was skeptical of our chances here early on, but recent polling data shows Democrat Mike Arcuri pulling ahead of GOP nominee Ray Meier. This is by no means a slam dunk, but I'm leaning towards Arcuri. Prediction: Arcuri by 4. (+12 for Dems)

New York, District 25--This Syracuse-area district is New York's bluest district held by a Republican in the House, but that doesn't mean 18-year incumbent James Walsh will be going down easy. Democrat Dan Maffei has the best-case scenario if there ever was one to take out Walsh, but I don't see it happening. Prediction: Walsh by 7.

New York, District 26--A month ago, I laughed at Democrats hopes of taking down NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds, long-tim Republican incumbent from suburban Buffalo and Niagara Falls. Then a poll was released showing Reynolds with a scant two-point lead over Democratic challenger Jack Davis, and I began to reconsider. Then, Reynolds got wrapped up as a direct culprit in the Mark Foley cover-up, and his poll numbers dropped like a rock. At this point, Reynolds look to be an almost certain casualty of the scandal, and was already more vulnerable than I had thought. Prediction: Davis by 7. (+13 for Dems)

New York, District 29--Conservative one-term Republican Randy Kuhl would be hard-pressed to win re-election most places in New York, particularly up against a solid Democratic challenger like Air Force pilot and Iraq war veteran Eric Massa, but this is New York's most Republican district, located in the state's largely rural southwestern corner, and every indication is that Kuhl will pull out a modest victory. Prediction: Kuhl by 7.

North Carolina, District 8--One race I have long thought was worthy of more attention than it was getting is this blue-collar district in southeastern North Carolina, currently represented by Republican Robin Hayes, whose high-profile flip-flop over CAFTA has residents in this working-class textile area fuming mad. Hayes also has a strong challenger in Democrat Larry Kissell, who has run an effective, unorthodox campaign on the cheap. In the end, I expect Kissell will fall just short, mainly because of the cultural concerns of conservative voters regarding the prospect of a Democratic House. You can bet many voters in Kannapolis and Fayetteville will be holding their noses as they vote for Hayes though. Prediction: Hayes by 3.

North Carolina, District 11--All the polls show Democratic challenger and former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler ahead of Republican incumbent Charles Taylor in this conservative district on the far west side of North Carolina, but Taylor always seems to close well by playing the same hand that all Republicans seem to play against Democrats in the South. This is a tough call, but ultimately, I'm betting on anti-liberal advertising blitz by Taylor and the GOP will drag him across the finish line by a nose. Prediction: Taylor by 2.

Ohio, District 1--A race that wasn't even on my radar screen six months ago, I'm now increasingly optimistic about Democrat John Cranley's bid to unseat Republican incumbent Steve Chabot in this divided district, gerrymandered to dilute Democratic Cincinnati with very Republican suburbs to its north. The perfect storm of corruption scandals in Ohio will probably take down Chabot if African-American turnout is robust. Prediction: Cranley by 2. (+14 for Dems)

Ohio, District 2--The dreadful Republican incumbent Jean Schmidt was narrowly elected in a special election is this ruby red district in suburban Cincinnati, but was expected to have an easier time this fall without Democratic boy wonder Paul Hackett challenging her. But it appears Schmidt is universally weak as her opponent this cycle, Victoria Wulsin, is either tied with Schmidt or slightly ahead in most polls. Much as I'd love to see this glorified cafeteria lady sent back to Clermont County, I fear the nearly 2-1 Republican advantage in her district will drag her across the finish line on election night much like it did in the special election last summer. Prediction: Schmidt by 4.

Ohio, District 6--After all the interesting detours and raised GOP expectations about winning this culturally conservative, blue-collar district in southeastern Ohio being vacated by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland, the race stands pretty much where I expected it to stand last year at this time......with Democrat Charlie Wilson sitting on a comfortable lead over Republican challenger Chuck Blasdel. Wilson's idiotic signature petition blunder last spring was widely expected to doom his campaign, but ultimately helped him by raising his name recognition months before his opponent was able to get into the spotlight. Overall, Wilson should win comfortably. Prediction: Wilson by 11.

Ohio, District 12--There's some speculation that Columbus area GOP incumbent Pat Tiberi could be vulnerable to Democratic challenger Bob Shamansky, but get real. The guy is frickin' 78 years old. Non-incumbents are never able to begin political careers at age 78. Tiberi will win easily. Prediction: Tiberi by 15.

Ohio, District 13--It was an always an extreme longshot for the Republicans to takeover this blue-collar Akron-area district currently held by Democrat Sherrod Brown, who's running for the Senate. However, the GOP put their best foot forward running Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, the only possible candidate who could win in this district. Perhaps in a Republican year, Foltin would be competitive, but this is not a competitive year for Republicans, and Democrat Betty Sutton will surely score a decisive victory, holding Brown's seat for the donks. Prediction: Sutton by 12.

Ohio, District 15--Last year at this time, I was one of the only horserace analysts bullish on the prospect of unseating high-ranking House Republican and CAFTA flip-flopper Deborah Pryce from her Democratic-trending Columbus-area district. Top-tier Democratic candidate Mary Jo Kilroy had just entered the race and generated some buzz, but few thought Pryce was seriously beatable. Twelve months later, Pryce in the race of her life, with some polls showing her trailing and the momentum clearly in Kilroy's corner. I think Kilroy will take her down. Prediction: Kilroy by 2. (+15 for Dems)

Ohio, District 18--As I said last month when crowning Republican Bob Ney as September's GOP Asshat of the Month, if Ney had admitted his guilt and resigned immediately rather than lie to his consituents by continuing to profess his innocence through his primary victory, Republicans would have a different horse in this race and would most likely win this heavily Republican district in November against lackluster Democratic challenger Zack Space. Since Ney did everything wrong and is now headed to prison, voters seem unlikely to reward Ney's handpicked Republican successor Joy Padgett with his seat in Congress. Space wins by default, but I'll take it. Prediction: Space by 6. (+16 for Dems)

Pennsylvania, District 4--This race is hardly a top-tier prospect for Democrats, but Republican Melissa Hart is rumored to be potentially vulnerable in her heavily blue-collar district in the northern suburbs of Pittsburgh and Beaver Valley region of western PA. The fact that I don't even know the name of Hart's Democratic opponent is not promising for his/her chances, however. Prediction: Hart by 10.

Pennsylvania, District 6--Long considered the most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the country due to his thin victory margins in previous runs and his Democratic-trending district in the western suburbs of Philadelphia, Jim Gerlach probably will lose to Democratic challenger Lois Murphy, but it isn't a foregone conclusion as the Democrats may have hoped it would be last year at this time. A couple of polls (though potentially outliers) suggest Gerlach still could pull this out, although I'm thinking the odds are now stacked heavily against him. Prediction: Murphy by 3 (+17 Dems)

Pennsylvania, District 7--Last year at this time, moonbat conservative Curt Weldon was not considered to be imminently vulnerable, even though his district in the southwestern suburbs of Philly has been trending very strongly Democrat in recent years. My what a difference a year makes. Weldon has made a handful of silly gaffes and faces a strong opponent in military Democrat Joe Sestak. Having a top-tier challenger has helped expose some of the more outrageous comments and actions Weldon has been known to make in recent years. Adding insult to injury, Weldon now faces criminal investigations for possible corruption three weeks before the election. I feel safe in predicting it will be the nail in Weldon's coffin. Prediction: Sestak by 5. (+18 Dems)

Pennsylvania, District 8--Iraq war veteran Patrick Murphy seemed like a such a strong candidate last year at this time, and still does. One-term conservative Republican Mike Fitzpatrick, on the other hand, seemed like such a weak incumbent, particularly with his district in the northern Philly suburbs having voted for John Kerry and trending undeniably Democratic. But for whatever reason, the conventional wisdom and all the polls suggest Fitzpatrick has the advantage. In a massive Democratic sweep, Murphy could still win, but I'm betting against him at this point. Prediction: Fitzpatrick by 3.

Pennsylvania, District 10--It was pretty clear last spring when long-time Republican incumbent Don Sherwood barely won his party's primary against an unfunded neophyte challenger that he was in serious trouble. His marital infidelity and charges of mistress-choking aren't sitting well with the conservative voters of his rural, northeastern Pennsylvania district, which has always been strongly and reliably Republican. The fact this his Democratic opponent is an articulate, plainspoken war veteran has only managed to put Sherwood further on the ropes, as all polls indicate. Sherwood is finished. Prediction: Carney by 5. (+19 Dems)

South Carolina, District 5--The Republicans didn't have very good timing in their efforts to unseat John Spratt, one of the last remaining blue-dog Democrats consistently winning in heavily Republican districts in the South. GOP state legislator Greg Norman would have had a great chance to topple Spratt in 2002 or 2004, but it seems very unlikely to happen now. At this point, this race is not even on the radar screens of most horserace analysts. Prediction: Spratt by 10.

Tennessee, District 9--I have a really bad feeling about this overwhelmingly Democratic seat in the city of Memphis vacated by Senate candidate Harold Ford, Jr. Democratic candidate Steve Cohen is a white man in a district that's nearly two-thirds African-American (probably more than that now with all the Hurricane Katrina refugees that have settled there). Cohen won a crowded primary field where the black candidates divided their allegiances to several black candidates. Cohen doesn't face a serious challenge from the Republican candidate, but rather an independent candidate, none other than Harold Ford, Jr's brother. I don't know anything about Ford's brother as a candidate, or if he intends to caucus with the Democrats if he wins, but I'd prefer not to learn the hard way. My guess is Cohen wins, but I fear the Democratic Party isn't taking seriously the racial dynamic of this contest. Prediction: Cohen by 5.

Texas, District 17--Last week at this time, I would have predicted Chet Edwards as a Democratic casualty....the only one of this cycle. His Central Texas district is overwhelmingly Republican and I had serious doubts whether he could topple Van Taylor, a candidate who has his flaws, but is far better than the 2004 opponent that Edwards narrowly defeated. However, a poll released last week showed Edwards with a huge double-digit lead that strikes me as impenetrable even if the margin is inflated. Looks like Edwards will be able to live on borrowed time a little longer in this district. Prediction: Edwards by 6.

Texas, District 22--Tom DeLay gamed the system one time too many and almost assuredly handed Democrats his seat in the western and southern suburbs/exurbs of Houston. Against any Republican but the indicted DeLay, Democrat Nick Lampson would have been hard-pressed to pull out a win, but the seat was likely saved for Lampson when a Texas judge ruled The Hammer's attempted candidate switcheroo as incompatible with Texas law. Now, the GOP is waging a longshot write-in candidacy for Houston City Councilwoman Shelley Sekula-Gibbs that seems very unlikely to work. Lampson should win by default, but hopefully he's already planning how he'll hang onto this brutal seat in 2008. Prediction: Lampson by16. (+20 for Dems)

Texas, District 23--The Supreme Court's recent decision to toss out some of Texas' recent GOP-friendly gerrymander will have a serious outcome on only one race in 2006, the southwestern Texas district held by Republican Henry Bonilla which has now become majority-Hispanic and far more Democratic. I had heard former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez may run for this seat, and then heard he wouldn't. At this point, I don't even know the Democrat running against Bonilla, which doesn't bode well for the likelihood of a Democratic upset. Prediction: Bonilla by 13.

Vermont At-large--I was reasonably confident that one of the most liberal and anti-war states in the union would not replace Senate-bound Socialist Bernie Sanders with a military Republican, and the polls now seem to indicate that Democrat Peter Welch has the advantage over Republican Martha Rainville. It'll still be a closer race than many may have expected in Vermont, however. Prediction: Welch by 8. (+21 for Dems, officially)

Virginia, District 2--Democrat Phil Kellam is waging a much stiffer challenge to one-term Republican incumbent Thelma Drake than anyone would have expected in Pat Robertson country (Virginia Beach). Polls are conflicting, but my money is certainly on Drake hanging on for a second term. Prediction: Drake by 4.

Washington, District 5--There's some buzz about Democratic challenger Peter Goldmark being competitive against one-term GOP incumbent Cathy McMorris in this Republican-trending, largely rural district in eastern Washington that was formerly held by Democratic Speaker of the House Tom Foley. Ultimately, however, I expect the buzz to buzz off on election night with a comfortable McMorris victory. Prediction: McMorris by 12.

Washington, District 8--Despite some early skepticism about her prospects, former Microsoft bigshot Darcy Burner has emerged as the real deal in her bid to unseat one-term Republican Dave Reichert in this swing district in the eastern suburbs of Seattle. Reichert maintains a high level of respect for his law enforcement tenure in the region, and I ultimately expect him to prevail by the thinnest of margins. Prediction: Reichert by 1.

West Virginia, District 1--One would think longtime Democratic incumbent Alan Mollohan would be in a world of hurt right now in his Republican-trending district in northern West Virginia, being under the scepter of criminal investigation and giving an appearance of guilt, but there's little indication that GOP challenger Chris Wakim has succeeded in turning the public tide against Mollohan. It'll probably be his narrowest margin of victory ever, but Mollohan looks poised to weather the storm. Prediction: Mollohan by 8.

West Virginia, District 2--Some early optimists thought Lex Luthor-lookalike Mike Callaghan was the Democratic candidate capable of unseating Republican incumbent Shelley Moore Capito in this GOP-trending district in central and eastern West Virginia, but for the life of me I can't see why. Prediction: Capito by 18.

Wisconsin, District 8--This open seat in northeastern Wisconsin is vacated by Republican Mark Green, who's running for Governor. The district leans Republican, but polls indicate a tick-tight race between Democrat Steve Kagen and Republican John Gard. Much as I'd love to be optimistic and go with Kagen, the combination of the district's GOP tilt and the potential coattails of gubernatorial candidate Green strikes me as too formidable of an obstacle. Prediction: Gard by 3.

Wyoming At-large--It's mind-blowing that this race between unpopular incumbent Barbara Cubin and Democratic challenger Gary Trauner is this close this late in the game considering that Wyoming went for George Bush with nearly 70% of the vote in 2004, but polls still indicate a tight race and Cubin's handlers have brought in national Republican operators to try to save her ass. Ultimately, I strongly suspect they will as the prospect of handing over the House to national Democrats would be tantamount to a sacrelige in Wyoming. Prediction: Cubin by 7.


A long list to be sure, but one with a much happier ending than I would have anticipated a couple of months ago. Like Kos himself, I've felt an undercurrent of pessimism about our chances for quite some time now and still feel that our national prospects are being artifically hyped by a media looking for a storyline. Nonetheless, the evidence is now pointing to an undeniable strong showing by Democrats, and I'm predicting they'll take the House. The next Congress will have 223 Democrats and 212 Republicans.

Dream Date Plunges Into Horrific Tailspin

Chalk this up to one more thing that could only happen to me.

A few nights back, when first setting up my date with "Abbey" via online personals and instant messages, I could not have been more excited. Talking to this girl, it was almost as if the word "soulmate" was flashing in bright red letters on her IM box. Yet something about her story just didn't add up to equating with a conventional lifestyle, which I consider reasonably important in pursuit of a relationship.

The date began Saturday evening evoking mixed feelings on my part. Physically, she wasn't quite the dreamboat I had envisioned based on her photo and my idealistic imagination but undeniably attractive nonetheless. By every other measure though, she impressed. She was by far the most intellectually astute person I've ever met in person, walking circles around any and every topic we covered, and in ideological alignment with me about 90% of the time. I was into her, even though the love-at-first-sight sexual chemistry was not as explosive as it had been in our online chat. But awkwardness and huge red flags emerged for me right away based on the evasiveness of her response to my questions about what kind of work she was doing in central Iowa, having just moved here two months ago. As the evening went on, it became clearer and clearer from her inadvertant clues that my worst suspicions were right and she could apparently sense I was putting two and two together.

We left our comfortable berth on a sofa at the wine bar and proceeded to a couple of chairs in the corner where she made it official, professing that her career was as an "escort". She was not attempting to rein me in as a client on our date, which I never sensed. She was legitimately making the rounds on the local dating circuit and pursuing a potential relationship. For the next hour, she proceeded to give me a detailed description of how she came to arrive at this profession, how her family feels about it, and how she maintains a traditional social life and her academic studies outside of this profession. Half of me was desperately trying to think of a way to get myself out of this bar and away from this lunatic, while the other half was fascinated listening to this girl pour her guts out to me about the trials and tribulations of being a ho.

I smiled and nodded, being as courteous as possible, and being careful not to say anything that could be construed as judgmental or that would promote a glass of wine tossed in my face, but nonetheless conveyed through my body language that I would never be able to condone that lifestyle by my significant other. She got the hint and seemed to be a little insulted that I had lost interest in further romantic conquest, even though I didn't specifically spell that out. The evening ended cordially, but abruptly. We made standard assurances of keeping in touch at a platonic level, but that'll obviously never happen.

It blows my mind that there are some guys out there open-minded enough to accept having a traditional relationship with a prostitute. In NO WAY would I ever be one of them. After eight dateless months in this new town, I made a heckuva first choice, huh? My only question is how my second date, three or four years down the line on whenever I wear off the shock of this one, will top this girl in the freakshow department.

Now back to horserace handicapping, hopefully restoring some normalcy in my vanilla world shaken to its core last evening.

Last Call for the Senate: Final Prediction Time!

I'm making my final predictions for U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives, and gubernatorial elections this weekend. It's a week earlier than I planned, but my schedule should permit it easier this week than last. I'd consider it cheating to make predictions on the eve of the election because it would be far less challenging. Sure, things could come up that will render these predictions obsolete. In cases where there is a seismic shift and I'd be a fool to stand by my original predictions, I may decide to amend one of these decisions, but I assure you that those cases will be few and far between.

I'll make my final calls here, followed by a guess on the overall margin. I'll block out third-party noise as best as possible, except in the case of Connecticut where are there are sure to be three candidates polling above 5%. Without further adieu.....

Arizona--In the end, this won't be close. Republican Jon Kyl's position on immigration, the issue of the day in the state, is closer to the position of Arizona's electorate and he was rewarded with at least a partial victory with the looming construction of a fence on the border. Pederson's big money are likely to have been wasted. Final call: Kyl by 8.

California--Dianne Feinstein will win big, but turnout will most likely be low now that Schwarzenegger is pulling away in the gubernatorial race, leaving no competitive races with ability to boost turnout....and with the much-hyped "surge in Latino voters" failing to come to fruition once again. My previous prediction of Feinstein scoring more votes than colleague Barbara Boxer did two years ago (6.9 million...an all-time record for a Senate candidate) is unlikely to happen, but Feinstein will win by a larger margin among those who do vote. Her awful Republican hypocrite/challenger will make sure of that. Final call: Feinstein by 23.

Connecticut--Ned Lamont peaked a week before the August 8 primary and has been bumbling and stumbling ever since in his attempt to unseat Joe Lieberman, who's running as an independent. Barring a major shift in momentum that I don't see coming at this point, Lieberman will win comfortably. Lamont's only hope is that Republican Alan Schlesinger impresses enough die-hard Republicans in upcoming debates that he takes away votes currently going for Lieberman. Seems like a longshot. My fear here is that Lieberman will stab the Democrats in the back after he wins. He might caucus with the Republicans. Or even worse, he might find himself drafted to replace Donald Rumsfeld as Secretary of Defense the day after the election, gladly and jubilantly accept, and then allow Connecticut's Republican Governor to appoint a GOP replacement, ultimately allowing the Republicans to hold the Senate. This is a premise Lamont should get out there just to give the remaining Lieberman Democrats some food for thought. Final call: Lieberman by 7.

Delaware--Not even sure who Democrat Tom Carper's opponent is. For a political junkie like myself to not even know a challenger's name 25 days before an election, the poor slob has a huge problem. Final call: Carper by 30.

Florida--Even though she's become the laughingstock of the Republican Senate candidates (no small feat this cycle), Harris will fare better on election night than the polls we've seen thus far suggest, showing incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson leading 2-1. Florida has simply become too Republican. With that said, she'll still lose....and lose big. She couldn't even manage more than a passing handshake for Bush, the man she helped elect, when he was in the state stumping for OTHER Republicans. Poor Katie! Final call: Bill Nelson by 14.

Hawaii--Liberal incumbent Democrat Daniel Akaka won the primary last month, and considering the GOP has yet to consolidate behind a candidate now that their original choice has dropped out, November 7 should be little more than a coronation for Akaka. The only wild card is if his primary opponent, conservative Democrat Ed Case, ends up running as a Republican, something he says he won't do but very easily could. If Case runs, Akaka will have a huge fight on his hands. For now, I'll take Case at his word and project that won't happen. Final call: Akaka by 43.

Indiana--Venerable and well-respected Republican incumbent Richard Lugar doesn't even have a Democratic opponent, which could help Democratic House candidates in the state by suppressing Republican turnout. But with only minor-party opposition, this is the easiest call in the country. Final call: Lugar by 77.

Maine--As ugly as conditions allegedly are for Republicans in the northeast, Maine's two-term Republican centrist Olympia Snowe is one of the most popular Senators in the country and will cruise to an easy re-election against lackluster Democratic opponent Jean Hay Bright. Final call: Snowe by 28.

Maryland--Favorable recent polls suggest Democrats can breathe a little easier about their candidate Ben Cardin besting his affable black opponent, Republican Michael Steele, but this is still a volatile situation shedding an unfavorable light on the racial and political divide that continues to exist in this country. A successful overture to the African-American community by Steele, or a gaffe by Cardin, could put this back into the toss-up category. For now though, it's hard to see how Steele can win unless he wins at least a third of blacks, which he's falling far short of right now. Nonetheless, Steele's non-traditional candidacy will make things interesting and give him some serious momentum in the 2008 Senate race if he loses. Final call: Cardin by 6.

Massachusetts--I finally heard a snippet from Ted Kennedy's Republican opponent this week (but still can't remember the guy's name). The guy was suggesting that Ted Kennedy was not doing enough to forward the cause of renewable energy....and that Massachusetts voters should vote for him, a member of the political party beholden to oil and gas interests that are suppressing the development of renewable energy. Huh? Final call: Kennedy by 43.

Michigan--The economy in Michigan is so depressed that there is still a chance of an upset here, but it's getting slimmer by the day. Michael Bouchard isn't a bad candidate for the Republicans, and his political base in Democrat-trending Oakland County will likely steal some votes away from Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow, but I can't imagine it will be enough. Still, this will be closer than the polls currently suggest. Final call: Stabenow by 7.

Minnesota--Would-be GOP wunderkind Mark Kennedy is getting absolutely destroyed at every juncture of this campaign by Democratic challenger Amy Klobuchar to fill this open seat. Truth be told, I don't think there was any way Kennedy was gonna win in Minnesota in the current political climate, but his lackluster campaign seems to be turning this into a Democratic landslide. With that said, I'm guessing this race will get much closer because I know how liberals and Democrat-leaning centrists in Minnesota operate. When they think the Democrat has the election in the bag, they waste their vote on a third or fourth-party candidate to "teach the DFL a lesson" and end up making the race artificially close. I'd be surprised if minor-party candidates got anything less than 7% collectively in this race, taking away votes almost exclusively from Klobuchar. Final call: Klobuchar by 5.

Missouri--This is the toughest race in the country to handicap right now. The polls are outrageously close with the slimmest of momentum swinging back and forth from one candidate to the next. As strong of a candidate as McCaskill generally is, she's made a couple of bonehead comments that will be used against her in the month ahead. With the NRSC investing a third of its financial resources to save Republican incumbent Jim Talent's ass, I have a really bad feeling about this one. I've been bullish about McCaskill from the beginning, but I'm now expecting Talent will eke this one out. Final call: Talent by 2.

Montana--Republican Conrad Burns has been in a monthslong slugfest with Virginia Senator George Allen for the most gaffe-prone campaign in the country. Burns' comedy of errors, on top of his ties to Jack Abramoff which will be back in the headlines again now that Bob Ney has pled guilty in federal court, should be the knockout blow that strong Democratic challenger Jon Tester needs, particularly with Tester's ability to close the deal with a flourish. If any other Republican but Burns was in this race, the Montana Senate seat would stay in GOP hands. Final call: Tester by 8. (+1 for Dems)

Nebraska--There is little evidence thus far to back up my early claims that incumbent Democrat Ben Nelson's 20-point lead will vanish in the same way his previous 20-point leads have vanished in U.S. Senate runs. Republican challenger Pete Ricketts just doesn't seem to be having any luck in shooting holes in an incumbent who would be one of the weakest incumbents in the country any other year because of the blood-red Republicanism of his state. As it stands now, Nelson is poised to win comfortably, but I still suspect that fear of Democrats controlling the Senate will ultimately send some current Nelson leaners over to Ricketts. Final call: Nelson by 10.

Nevada--Polls have been erratic regarding the caliber of challenge being posed by Democrat Jack Carter (son of former President Jimmy) to Republican incumbent John Ensign. But with a weak organization, limited support from the Nevada Democratic Party (namely senior Senator Harry Reid), and Carter being taken out of commission briefly last month with collitis, I can't imagine Carter will be able to scale the giant wall in front of him in 25 days. Final call: Ensign by 13.

New Jersey--Even as I feared the worst with more corruption allegations surfacing two weeks ago against quasi-incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez, it appears his numbers are actually going up. Jersey voters almost always seem to break for Democrats, even when there's far less at stake than there is this year, so I was always cautiously optimistic that Menendez would best Tom Kean on election day. Kean could still win, but it's starting to look like he may have peaked in September. Final call: Menendez by 4.

New Mexico--Democratic incumbent and low-key wallflower Jeff Bingaman will easily beat his even more faceless Republican challenger. Final call: Bingaman by 18.

New York--My hope for a weak Hillary Clinton victory in 2006, ultimately leading to her losing momentum for her 2008 Presidential run, does not appear likely to happen as she is tossing around her weak, sleazy, and ethically-questionable GOP challenger John Spencer like a rag doll. Given the level of polarization that surrounds her, I doubt Hillary will pull off the kind of 3-1 landslide her colleague Chuck Schumer did in 2004, but 2-1 is definitely a likely target for her margin. Final call: Clinton by 31.

North Dakota--Republicans were buzzing 18 months ago at the prospect of knocking off popular Democratic incumbent Kent Conrad with just-as-popular Republican Governor John Hoeven, but Hoeven opted not to run and things have been all downhill for the GOP's prospects ever since, running an invisible candidate whose name I can't recall. Conrad is likely to score as big of a blowout as the 2-1 shellacking his colleague Byron Dorgan to his Republican tormentor in 2004. Final call: Conrad by 37.

Ohio--Democrat Sherrod Brown turned out to be a stronger candidate than I expected, and holds a lead in most recent polls over Republican incumbent Mike DeWine. After being teased by good polling data for John Kerry out of Ohio in October 2004, only to have my hopes crushed on election night, I continue to have a bad feeling about this race. The fact that the NRSC is investing a third of its overall resources into holding this seat really makes me expect a repeat of '04. Ultimately, I just don't think voters will opt to punish DeWine for the sins of other Ohio Republicans. I'd love to be wrong here, but I simply can't bring myself to believe that Brown's lead will hold. Final call: DeWine by 2.

Pennsylvania--As weak of a candidate that Democrat Bob Casey is, it appears that Republican incumbent Rick Santorum is so despised that Casey will be able to coast into a victory. It'll be closer than polls indicate, mainly because Casey is so lackluster, but Santorum's Senate career is nonetheless over. Final call: Casey by 5. (+2 for Dems)

Rhode Island--In the end, there really wasn't any way Lincoln Chafee was gonna win this year. Any other year, Chafee would have been comfortably re-elected even in deep-blue Rhode Island, but in 2006, with control of the Senate in the balance and a top-tier Democratic challenger in RI Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, it's really hard to see how Chafee can win....particularly now that the NRSC has apparently thrown him under the bus by directing all of its money into the Senate races in Missouri, Ohio, and Tennessee. The most damning statistic for Chafee: one out of four Rhode Island Republicans don't plan to vote for him because he's so liberal. Can't see how he wins. Final call: Whitehouse by 4. (+3 for Dems)

Tennessee--The exuberance of Democrats regarding Harold Ford, Jr's successes are understandable. Nobody expected Ford would still be in the running at this stage, especially after Bob Corker, the Republican deemed most electable, won the primary. But despite Ford's brilliant campaign, all the GOP needs is to make one "liberal" spitball stick to him and he's finished in more-conservative-by-the-day Tennessee. With a month to go, one-third of the NRSC's bank account dedicated to taking Ford down, and the undeniable statistical accuracy of stealth racism hurting African-American candidates on election day, I suspect Democrats will be greatly disappointed with the results. Final call: Corker by 5.

Texas--Democratic challenger Barbara Radnofsky will be the latest casualty of a Texas politician with an (R) next to his/her name....in this case, popular incumbent Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison. Final call: Hutchison by 22.

Utah--Another slam-dunk hold for the GOP. Orrin Hatch will crush Democratic challenger Pete Ashdown in America's most Republican state. Final call: Hatch by 48.

Vermont--Socialist Bernie Sanders (I'm not kidding, he actually is a Socialist!), who will caucus with the Democrats, will handily win a Senate term in left-wing Vermont against GOP challenger Richard Tarrant. Final call: Sanders by 29.

Virginia--I had some hope for George Allen's numerous idiotic gaffes sinking him a month ago, but then his political opponents pushed too hard, regurgitating decades-old accusations of racial slurs that Allen reportedly broadcast when out of the public eye. Predictably, Allen benefitted from a sympathy vote and his polls numbers have bounced back to a modest lead. It's a shame because Democrat Jim Webb is a serious candidate capable of swamping Allen in a serious debate, as we all saw on "Meet the Press" last month. But at this point, Webb has lost his momentum through no fault of his own. Final call: Allen by 5.

Washington--Democratic incumbent Maria Cantwell looked vulnerable a few months ago, but after stepping up her own re-election efforts as her Republican opponent lost his footing, she is now pretty safely positioned for a second Senate term. Final call: Cantwell by 10.

West Virginia--Democratic institution Robert Byrd seems to have dodged two bullets....the first being strong would-be GOP challenger Shelley Moore Capito, who ultimately opted not to run, and second, his own old age. Barring a health-related meltdown, Byrd is poised to win another easy re-election against lame GOP challenger John Raese. It'll be closer than last time, but Byrd will likely do better than I originally predicted in Republican-trending West Virginia. Final call: Byrd by 21.

Wisconsin--With former Governor and HHS Director Tommy Thompson choosing not to run (nobody seriously expected he would), low-key Democratic incumbent Herb Kohl will cruise to another easy re-election. Final call: Kohl by 26.

Wyoming--Another easy call. Incumbent Republican Craig Thomas scores an easy re-election against an invisible Democratic challenger. I gotta say, however, that I don't think I've ever heard, seen, or read anything about Thomas or his colleague Mike Enzi at any point during their lengthy tenures in the United States Senate. Apparently, they don't reach out to an audience beyond Wyoming. Final call: Thomas by 44.



There you have it. I'm sure my Democratic readers will be disappointed that my two most controversial calls went to the Republicans. Missouri and Ohio are definitely the weakest links in my predictions, and both could easily go to the Democrats. Right now, however, I'm calling only PA, RI, and MT as Democratic pick-ups, resulting in a Senate that consists of 52 Republicans, 46 Democrats, and 2 independents (hopefully, both caucusing with the Dems). I'll be happy to eat crow if Talent or DeWine bite the dust on election night, though, and both can clearly go either way right now.