Dems Poised to Score Big in Governor Races
Even the most GOP-friendly horse race analysts couldn't crunch numbers optimistically enough to paint a favorable picture for the party's prospects in this year's 36 gubernatorial races. Several GOP-held statehouses appear almost certain to slip into Democratic hands, and in some of the most heavily populated states in the nation at that. The Dems' likely successes in this year's gubernatorial races could potentially have a huge impact on national races in 2008, but more importantly, beyond. I'll speak in more detail on that after analyzing all of 2006's gubernatorial races, state by state.
Alabama--Republican incumbent Bob Riley was getting hammered from both sides mere months ago and was looking very vulnerable heading into the 2006 midterms. Democratic challenger Lucy Baxley is a fairly strong candidate on paper, but does not seem to be able to find a foothold against Riley, who is suddenly popular again, three years after infuriating conservatives with a ballot initiative that would have raised state income taxes. In a state growing more conservative and more religious with each passing year, I submit that Riley would have beaten Baxley or any Democrat even when hit bottom politically. Now that his popularity is once again insurgent, I suspect he'll win big. Prediction: Riley by 16.
Alaska--Six months ago, Democrats were giddy when wildly unpopular incumbent Republican Frank Murkowski decided to run for re-election, poised to face the popular former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles. Their storyline crumbled in August, however, when Murkowski proved so unpopular that he got smashed in his own party's primary. Now, Knowles will have to face Sarah Palin, an attractive young Republican who has been running ahead of Knowles in recent polls and looks poised to win right now. Prediction: Palin by 6.
Arizona--In one of the few Western states where the Democratic Party has not seen substantial gains in recent years, the gubernatorial race in Arizona is a rare bright spot. Incumbent Janet Napolitano is poised to win big over her faceless GOP opponent, potentially setting herself up as a top-tier contender for the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidacy in 2008. Prediction: Napolitano by 22.
Arkansas--Bucking the trend of the South so far this decade, Arkansas remains a bastion of moderate Democrats and appears poised to trade in retiring Republican Governor Mike Huckabee with a Democrat, current Attorney General Mike Beebe. Most striking about this race is that Beebe holds a double-digit leads in most polls, even up against a top-tier GOP challenger in former Congressman Asa Hutchinson. A significant victory by Beebe, as now looks likely could portend Arkansas as a battleground state in the 2008 Presidential candidate, particularly if a Southerner is the Democratic nominee. Prediction: Beebe by 8. (+1 for Dems)
California--The Democrats' biggest disappointment this cycle is their inability to take back the very blue state of California from Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, particularly when considering how weak Schwarzenegger was last year at this time. What happened? Schwarzenegger all but became a Democrat when realizing that's what it would take for him to get re-elected in California, shifting to the left in almost every conceivably way after voters rejected his right-wing reforms by wide margins in last fall's special elections. Furthermore, a weak Democratic candidate in State Treasurer Phil Angelides won a bitter primary against a more electable moderate, and has found it almost impossible to get any traction running against Arnold. One would think Californians would be wise enough to realize that Schwarzenegger will move immediately back to the right the day after the election, but it appears we're gonna find out because Schwarzenegger is almost certain to win, but look for turnout to be low in CA this year. Prediction: Schwarzenegger by 7.
Colorado--Here's a race that hasn't unfolded at all the way I expected it to. Two-term Republican Bob Beauprez Congressman has twice won in a Democratic-leaning district in suburban Denver, leading me to believe he'd have the edge against Democrat Bill Ritter. But Ritter is running as a centrist, pro-business Democrat and winning over some unusual allies disgruntled with some of the budget issues that have plagued the state under the direction of retiring GOP incumbent Bill Owens, and queasy about rewarding a Washington Republican like Beauprez. Colorado is a state that appears to moving fiercely and undeniably to the left, and the huge leads Ritter is seeing in nearly every poll seem likely to further that trend. Prediction: Ritter by 8. (+2 for Dems)
Connecticut--The state of Connecticut has some of the most schizophrenic races in the country this year. Their Senate race is essentially between two Democrats. Three moderate Republicans in the House are in danger of losing their seats because voters are miffed about another guy in their party named George Bush. Yet deflecting all of this anti-Republican furor in her state is Republican Governor Jodi Rell, who is one of the most popular Governor's in the country and is poised to win re-election by a huge margin next month. Prediction: Rell by 19.
Florida--Polls have been all over the place, but the conventional wisdom of a year ago and six months ago seems to be holding that increasingly Republican Florida will probably elect another Republican Governor in 2006. GOP Attorney General Charlie Crist has consistent leads of varying margins (depending on the poll) against Democratic Congressman Jim Davis. It's hard for me to put a finger on how close Davis will or will not get to Crist, but I'm fairly confident that Crist will prevail, regrettable as it is to see the Democratic Party continue to lose influence in fast-growing Florida. Prediction: Crist by 7.
Georgia--I don't think it's possible for Democrats to win statewide offices of any significance in the state of Georgia anymore, given the blistering growth of country club yuppies moving into Atlanta's suburbs and reinforcing the voting habits of the bubbas in rural Georgia. With that in mind, Democrat Mark Taylor probably never really had a chance to take out incumbent Republican Sonny Purdue if strongly-favored incumbent Democrat Roy Barnes couldn't handle Purdue four years ago. Prediction: Purdue by 11.
Hawaii--In a state that never elected a Republican prior to 2002, moderate GOP Governor Linda Lingle is poised to easily win a second term against a token Democratic challenger, potentially paving the way for Hawaii to become a two-party state in national politics as early as the 2010 Hawaii Senate race. Prediction: Lingle by 25.
Idaho--Republican Butch Otter is a cinch to win Idaho's open gubernatorial race, but will nonetheless have a bad evening if his open U.S. House race goes to the Democrats, which polls suggest is a possibility even in one of the most staunchly Republicans states on the map. Prediction: Otter by 27.
Illinois--When moderate Republican Judy Baar Topinka won the GOP primary last spring, I was convinced that unpopular incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich was going down. Thus far, however, it appears that Blago's vulnerabilities and widely expected ties to corruption scandals are not turning Illinois voters off as much as Topinka's abrasive personality and the sour mood against Republicans. Amazing, but apparently true as Blago leads Topinka by comfortable margins in every poll. Prediction: Blagojevich by 5.
Iowa--Another race I suspected would be sealed up for the Republicans by now that isn't. On paper, Republican Jim Nussle would seem like he should be walking all over Democratic challenger Chet Culver in the race to fill the shoes of retiring Democrat Tom Vilsack, but a handful of factors are keeping Culver in the game, and if certain polls are right, actually sitting on a small lead. Culver comes across as a lightweight politically, but conveys a nice guy, ray of sunshine personality that seems tacitly "gubernatorial". Beyond that, it's not a good year to be a Republican anywhere, but to be a Republican who has the baggage of being an active enabler of George Bush in Washington as Nussle does really adds to one's disadvantages. With all that in mind, this is a very tough call. The race is getting surprisingly little public scrutiny even here in Iowa. That favors Culver since the only way he can win is by flying under the radar and waiting out the clock. Still, I have to suspect that'll change in the final weeks of the debate, and anyone paying attention will realize that Nussle is running the stronger campaign. In the end, I suspect that will help him prevail by the narrowest of margins. I'd LOVE to be wrong though. Prediction: Nussle by 1 (+1 for Dems)
Kansas--In one of America's most reliably Republican states, incumbent Democrat Kathleen Sebelius is a shoo-in for a second term. Just goes to show how at odds statewide politics often are from national politics. Prediction: Sebelius by 14.
Maine--This race is by no means over, but it seems as though the combination of this shaping up to be a horrible year for Republicans and the solid conservatism of GOP challenger Chandler Woodcock will ultimately help less-than-popular Democratic incumbent John Baldacci score a default re-election victory. Prediction: Baldacci by 4.
Maryland--Even with enviable approval ratings in the mid-50's, Republican incumbent Bob Ehrlich is trailing Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley because of the rabidly anti-Republican tide sweeping the country, and of course the huge partisan advantage Democrats enjoy in Maryland. Ehrlich could still sneak out a win, but O'Malley's steady and consistent leads in every poll will be hard to overcome in three short weeks. Prediction: O'Malley by 4. (+2 for Dems)
Massachusetts--One has to feel kind of bad for current Lieutenant Governor and current Republican gubernatorial aspirant Kerry Healey. She's desperately trying to sneak out a victory running as a Republican in heavily Democratic Massachusetts against charismatic African-American challenger Deval Patrick, who has huge leads in the polls, but she also has to contend with her boss, current Governor Mitt Romney, moving radically to the right to endear himself to national Republicans as he seeks the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination. She also stands to lose votes to former Republican Christy Mihos, running as an independent and poised to split the already small non-Democrat vote in the state. At this point, it looks as though Deval Patrick will finally win back the statehouse of the most Democratic state in the nation for his party, the first Democratic Governor of the state since Michael Dukakis. Prediction: Patrick by 15. (+3 for Dems)
Michigan--Two months ago, it looked as though the Democratic incumbent, attractive rising star Jennifer Granholm, was in serious danger of being upset by Republican businessman Dick DeVos. Granholm could still be a casualty of DeVos' big money and Michigan's downward-spiraling economy, but her position has improved greatly since hitting the airwaves with ads. Michigan voters maybe unhappy with the declining state of their economy, but they're far more inclined to blame that situation on the policies of George Bush than Jennifer Granholm, and the policies of Bush are by and large the same policies pushed by DeVos. It'll be close, but I'm guessing Granholm squeaks by, thanks to the Democrats' national momentum. Prediction: Granholm by 2.
Minnesota--I'm amazed that Democrat Mike Hatch is not only holding his own among modestly popular Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty, but actually sitting on a small lead. But knowing Minnesota politics first-hand, I remain pessimistic. Pawlenty is a good debater, and the only statewide televised debate is coming later this month. The last two Minnesota gubernatorial races have swung wildly based on debate performances. The entertaining and left-leaning Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson also stands to gain from the debates, almost exclusively at Mike Hatch's expense. My confidence about Pawlenty's ability to bounce back diminishes with each passing week of stagnant or declining poll numbers, but being familiar with both Pawlenty and Minnesota voters, I still have to fall on the side of a Pawlenty victory at the end of the day, made possible by a showing in the 7-10% range for Peter Hutchinson. Prediction: Pawlenty by 3.
Nebraska--Considering interim Republican Governor Dave Heineman managed to take down legendary Cornhuskers coach Tom Osborn, to most people's surprise, in last spring's Republican primary. He'll have no problem smacking down Democratic challenger David Hahn in the general election. Prediction: Heineman by 33.
Nevada--It appears likely that retiring Republican Kenny Guinn will be replaced by another Republican. GOP Congressman Jim Gibbons is the exception as a Washington Republican running in a gubernatorial race who is not being punished for it. Democratic challenger Dina Titus is within striking distance in some polls, but my money's on a modest victory for Gibbons. Prediction: Gibbons by 6.
New Hampshire--Incumbent Democrat Governor John Lynch is wildly popular in this Democratic-trending but fiscally conservative New England state, and should score an easy second term. Prediction: Lynch by 32.
New Mexico--Democratic incumbent Bill Richardson could buoy his 2008 Presidential ambitions if he scores the kind of blowout victory he's expected to in his quest for a second term in the New Mexico statehouse. Prediction: Richardson by 20.
New York--Open seats are not supposed to be landslides, but New York's gubernatorial race certainly is. Wildly popular Democratic Attorney General Elliot Spitzer is poised to score a 2-1 victory against Republican challenger John Faso to fill the seat of three-term GOP incumbent George Pataki. Prediction: Spitzer by 30. (+4 for Dems)
Ohio--Another open seat that looks to result in a landslide victory for Democrats. Retiring Republican Bob Taft will leave office in disgrace after pleading no contest to corruption charges, and is acting as an albatross around the necks of Republicans across the state of Ohio this fall. No Republican is suffering more from Taft's long shadow than this year's Republican candidate, polarizing African-American conservative Ken Blackwell. Blackwell's campaign is all but over as strong Democratic challenger is Ted Strickland, a moderate Democrat from the state's rural southern side who draws a great deal of support from Republicans and is almost certain to score a decisive victory in three weeks. Prediction: Strickland by 13. (+5 for Dems)
Oklahoma--Another popular Democratic Governor in a deeply Republican state is Brad Henry, incumbent Governor of Oklahoma who is sitting very strong in a race against a strong Republican challenger, Oklahoma City Congressman Ernest Istook. It may end up being closer than polls currently indicate simply because of the Republican strength in Oklahoma, but it seems unlikely that Henry will be beatable this year. Prediction: Henry by 10.
Oregon--There are several weak Democratic incumbents in gubernatorial races this fall, and perhaps none weaker than Oregon's Ted Kulongoski, who has a small lead in most polls against GOP challenger Ron Saxton. But with re-elect numbers hovering as low as the high 30's, Kulongoski has more than his share of critics and Oregon has enough undecided voters to make this race a true battleground. One would have to give a slight edge to Kulongoski just because of the expected Democratic tide nationally, but I expect this one to go down to the wire and would not be surprised at all if Saxton pulled it out. Prediction: Kulongoski by 2.
Pennsylvania--For a brief while following the Pittsburgh Steelers' Super Bowl win, Hall of Famer Lynn Swann was a very attractive candidate who seemed poised to put up a heckuva fight against incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell in the PA gubernatorial race. But a series of gaffes and a lackluster campaign has tanked Swann's campaign, and he's never been able to recover that lost ground. The consummate politician Rendell wouldn't have been an easy dragon to slay even if Swann had been as strong of a candidate as the GOP had originally hoped, but given how disappointing Swann has been, this race has been in the bag for Rendell for months now. Prediction: Rendell by 15.
Rhode Island--Polls are all over the place in this deep blue state where moderate Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri is generally thought to have a modest lead against Democratic challenger Jack Fogarty. It's clear that the Republican Party is in miserable standing among Rhode Island voters this year, so it's not out of the question for Fogarty to pull off an upset, but for now my money is on Carcieri hanging on. Prediction: Carcieri by 3.
South Carolina--Republican Mark Sanford is not exactly Mr. Popularity as the incumbent Governor of crimson red South Carolina, and as a result Democratic challenger Tommy Moore is within striking distance in a couple of polls. At the end of the day, however, I can't imagine South Carolina electing a Democrat to any level of statewide government no matter what the mood is nationally. Sanford will have an easy victory even though his support is soft. Prediction: Sanford by 9.
South Dakota--Republican incumbent Mike Rounds is being held surprisingly harmless by South Dakota voters for the intense division regarding the state's proposed abortion ban, despite being the guy who signed the bill into law earlier this spring. Democratic challenger Jack Billion can't seem to get a foothold in a state that has a knee-jerk association with the Republican Party in state politics. Considering the brouhaha likely to emerge with whichever way the abortion vote goes, Billion may end up glad that Rounds is the guy who has to deal with the headache. Prediction: Rounds by 17.
Tennessee--Conservative Democratic incumbent Phil Bredesen is bucking the trendline of his state, not only by being a Democrat in an increasingly red state, but an enormously popular one poised to win re-election by at least 20 points. Bredesen may be too conservative for national Democratic politics, but perhaps the Dems should give him a look nonetheless as a potential antidote to their growing electoral woes in Dixie. Prediction: Bredesen by 23.
Texas--One of the most intriguing gubernatorial races in the country, the crowded field of Texas features four candidates all likely to poll in double digits. Republican incumbent Rick Perry's popularity is in freefall, but he's still sitting pretty in his quest for re-election as his challengers are sufficiently dividing the anti-Perry vote (which is more than 60% of the collective vote in Texas) . Efforts have been made by Democrat Chris Bell to talk quirky center-left Independent candidate Kinky Friedman out of the race, but the efforts have been unsuccessful thus far. And the center-right has a candidate of their own in Independent Carole Strayhorn. The far-right base of oil barons and evangelical nutballs will be all Perry needs to hang on for another four years with as little as 35% of the vote. Prediction: Perry by 14.
Vermont--Liberal Vermont will defy conventional wisdom yet again this fall by electing a self-proclaimed Socialist to the United States Senate along with a Republican to the Governor's mansion. The Republican in question is moderate incumbent Jim Douglas, who seems poised to handily score a second term over Democratic challenger Scudder Parker. Prediction: Douglas by 13.
Wisconsin--Polls are inconclusive, but the general consensus is that incumbent Democrat Jim Doyle is favored despite his lukewarm reception by the state's voters. Doyle can likely thank national momentum for Democrats if he pulls it out against his GOP challenger, Green Bay-area Congressman Mark Green. Beyond that, Wisconsin already has a Republican-dominated Legislature and the state seems far too moderate and politically divided to choose in favor of a conservative Republican Governor that will rubber stamp the Legislature's every whim. Doyle will likely win by default, but will win nonetheless. Prediction: Doyle by 5.
Wyoming--Yet another case of a popular Democratic Governor in one of the nation's most Republican states, there is nobody who expects Democratic incumbent Dave Freudenthal to be toppled even though he lives in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly 3-1. Prediction: Freudenthal by 27.
There are my predictions. The Dems are poised to win back five gubernatorial races if my predictions pan out, which will give Democrats the advantage in statehouse control for the first time in well over a decade. Unfortunately, statehouse control will be most important in the next round of midterms in 2010, just before new U.S. Census results will result in the next round of Congressional gerrymanders, which are usually engineered by Governor's and Legislatures state-by-state. If the Dems hang onto some of the wins they will likely pull off in 2006, their prospects of being competitive in House races in 2012 and beyond will be respectable. But if the GOP controls the statehouses and legislatures in key battleground states in 2010 as they did in 2000, the Democratic Party stands to be even more politically ghettoized than they have been so far this decade. Scary stuff, and all the more reason why Democrats need win and keep on winning these gubernatorial elections.
Alabama--Republican incumbent Bob Riley was getting hammered from both sides mere months ago and was looking very vulnerable heading into the 2006 midterms. Democratic challenger Lucy Baxley is a fairly strong candidate on paper, but does not seem to be able to find a foothold against Riley, who is suddenly popular again, three years after infuriating conservatives with a ballot initiative that would have raised state income taxes. In a state growing more conservative and more religious with each passing year, I submit that Riley would have beaten Baxley or any Democrat even when hit bottom politically. Now that his popularity is once again insurgent, I suspect he'll win big. Prediction: Riley by 16.
Alaska--Six months ago, Democrats were giddy when wildly unpopular incumbent Republican Frank Murkowski decided to run for re-election, poised to face the popular former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles. Their storyline crumbled in August, however, when Murkowski proved so unpopular that he got smashed in his own party's primary. Now, Knowles will have to face Sarah Palin, an attractive young Republican who has been running ahead of Knowles in recent polls and looks poised to win right now. Prediction: Palin by 6.
Arizona--In one of the few Western states where the Democratic Party has not seen substantial gains in recent years, the gubernatorial race in Arizona is a rare bright spot. Incumbent Janet Napolitano is poised to win big over her faceless GOP opponent, potentially setting herself up as a top-tier contender for the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidacy in 2008. Prediction: Napolitano by 22.
Arkansas--Bucking the trend of the South so far this decade, Arkansas remains a bastion of moderate Democrats and appears poised to trade in retiring Republican Governor Mike Huckabee with a Democrat, current Attorney General Mike Beebe. Most striking about this race is that Beebe holds a double-digit leads in most polls, even up against a top-tier GOP challenger in former Congressman Asa Hutchinson. A significant victory by Beebe, as now looks likely could portend Arkansas as a battleground state in the 2008 Presidential candidate, particularly if a Southerner is the Democratic nominee. Prediction: Beebe by 8. (+1 for Dems)
California--The Democrats' biggest disappointment this cycle is their inability to take back the very blue state of California from Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, particularly when considering how weak Schwarzenegger was last year at this time. What happened? Schwarzenegger all but became a Democrat when realizing that's what it would take for him to get re-elected in California, shifting to the left in almost every conceivably way after voters rejected his right-wing reforms by wide margins in last fall's special elections. Furthermore, a weak Democratic candidate in State Treasurer Phil Angelides won a bitter primary against a more electable moderate, and has found it almost impossible to get any traction running against Arnold. One would think Californians would be wise enough to realize that Schwarzenegger will move immediately back to the right the day after the election, but it appears we're gonna find out because Schwarzenegger is almost certain to win, but look for turnout to be low in CA this year. Prediction: Schwarzenegger by 7.
Colorado--Here's a race that hasn't unfolded at all the way I expected it to. Two-term Republican Bob Beauprez Congressman has twice won in a Democratic-leaning district in suburban Denver, leading me to believe he'd have the edge against Democrat Bill Ritter. But Ritter is running as a centrist, pro-business Democrat and winning over some unusual allies disgruntled with some of the budget issues that have plagued the state under the direction of retiring GOP incumbent Bill Owens, and queasy about rewarding a Washington Republican like Beauprez. Colorado is a state that appears to moving fiercely and undeniably to the left, and the huge leads Ritter is seeing in nearly every poll seem likely to further that trend. Prediction: Ritter by 8. (+2 for Dems)
Connecticut--The state of Connecticut has some of the most schizophrenic races in the country this year. Their Senate race is essentially between two Democrats. Three moderate Republicans in the House are in danger of losing their seats because voters are miffed about another guy in their party named George Bush. Yet deflecting all of this anti-Republican furor in her state is Republican Governor Jodi Rell, who is one of the most popular Governor's in the country and is poised to win re-election by a huge margin next month. Prediction: Rell by 19.
Florida--Polls have been all over the place, but the conventional wisdom of a year ago and six months ago seems to be holding that increasingly Republican Florida will probably elect another Republican Governor in 2006. GOP Attorney General Charlie Crist has consistent leads of varying margins (depending on the poll) against Democratic Congressman Jim Davis. It's hard for me to put a finger on how close Davis will or will not get to Crist, but I'm fairly confident that Crist will prevail, regrettable as it is to see the Democratic Party continue to lose influence in fast-growing Florida. Prediction: Crist by 7.
Georgia--I don't think it's possible for Democrats to win statewide offices of any significance in the state of Georgia anymore, given the blistering growth of country club yuppies moving into Atlanta's suburbs and reinforcing the voting habits of the bubbas in rural Georgia. With that in mind, Democrat Mark Taylor probably never really had a chance to take out incumbent Republican Sonny Purdue if strongly-favored incumbent Democrat Roy Barnes couldn't handle Purdue four years ago. Prediction: Purdue by 11.
Hawaii--In a state that never elected a Republican prior to 2002, moderate GOP Governor Linda Lingle is poised to easily win a second term against a token Democratic challenger, potentially paving the way for Hawaii to become a two-party state in national politics as early as the 2010 Hawaii Senate race. Prediction: Lingle by 25.
Idaho--Republican Butch Otter is a cinch to win Idaho's open gubernatorial race, but will nonetheless have a bad evening if his open U.S. House race goes to the Democrats, which polls suggest is a possibility even in one of the most staunchly Republicans states on the map. Prediction: Otter by 27.
Illinois--When moderate Republican Judy Baar Topinka won the GOP primary last spring, I was convinced that unpopular incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich was going down. Thus far, however, it appears that Blago's vulnerabilities and widely expected ties to corruption scandals are not turning Illinois voters off as much as Topinka's abrasive personality and the sour mood against Republicans. Amazing, but apparently true as Blago leads Topinka by comfortable margins in every poll. Prediction: Blagojevich by 5.
Iowa--Another race I suspected would be sealed up for the Republicans by now that isn't. On paper, Republican Jim Nussle would seem like he should be walking all over Democratic challenger Chet Culver in the race to fill the shoes of retiring Democrat Tom Vilsack, but a handful of factors are keeping Culver in the game, and if certain polls are right, actually sitting on a small lead. Culver comes across as a lightweight politically, but conveys a nice guy, ray of sunshine personality that seems tacitly "gubernatorial". Beyond that, it's not a good year to be a Republican anywhere, but to be a Republican who has the baggage of being an active enabler of George Bush in Washington as Nussle does really adds to one's disadvantages. With all that in mind, this is a very tough call. The race is getting surprisingly little public scrutiny even here in Iowa. That favors Culver since the only way he can win is by flying under the radar and waiting out the clock. Still, I have to suspect that'll change in the final weeks of the debate, and anyone paying attention will realize that Nussle is running the stronger campaign. In the end, I suspect that will help him prevail by the narrowest of margins. I'd LOVE to be wrong though. Prediction: Nussle by 1 (+1 for Dems)
Kansas--In one of America's most reliably Republican states, incumbent Democrat Kathleen Sebelius is a shoo-in for a second term. Just goes to show how at odds statewide politics often are from national politics. Prediction: Sebelius by 14.
Maine--This race is by no means over, but it seems as though the combination of this shaping up to be a horrible year for Republicans and the solid conservatism of GOP challenger Chandler Woodcock will ultimately help less-than-popular Democratic incumbent John Baldacci score a default re-election victory. Prediction: Baldacci by 4.
Maryland--Even with enviable approval ratings in the mid-50's, Republican incumbent Bob Ehrlich is trailing Democratic challenger Martin O'Malley because of the rabidly anti-Republican tide sweeping the country, and of course the huge partisan advantage Democrats enjoy in Maryland. Ehrlich could still sneak out a win, but O'Malley's steady and consistent leads in every poll will be hard to overcome in three short weeks. Prediction: O'Malley by 4. (+2 for Dems)
Massachusetts--One has to feel kind of bad for current Lieutenant Governor and current Republican gubernatorial aspirant Kerry Healey. She's desperately trying to sneak out a victory running as a Republican in heavily Democratic Massachusetts against charismatic African-American challenger Deval Patrick, who has huge leads in the polls, but she also has to contend with her boss, current Governor Mitt Romney, moving radically to the right to endear himself to national Republicans as he seeks the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination. She also stands to lose votes to former Republican Christy Mihos, running as an independent and poised to split the already small non-Democrat vote in the state. At this point, it looks as though Deval Patrick will finally win back the statehouse of the most Democratic state in the nation for his party, the first Democratic Governor of the state since Michael Dukakis. Prediction: Patrick by 15. (+3 for Dems)
Michigan--Two months ago, it looked as though the Democratic incumbent, attractive rising star Jennifer Granholm, was in serious danger of being upset by Republican businessman Dick DeVos. Granholm could still be a casualty of DeVos' big money and Michigan's downward-spiraling economy, but her position has improved greatly since hitting the airwaves with ads. Michigan voters maybe unhappy with the declining state of their economy, but they're far more inclined to blame that situation on the policies of George Bush than Jennifer Granholm, and the policies of Bush are by and large the same policies pushed by DeVos. It'll be close, but I'm guessing Granholm squeaks by, thanks to the Democrats' national momentum. Prediction: Granholm by 2.
Minnesota--I'm amazed that Democrat Mike Hatch is not only holding his own among modestly popular Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty, but actually sitting on a small lead. But knowing Minnesota politics first-hand, I remain pessimistic. Pawlenty is a good debater, and the only statewide televised debate is coming later this month. The last two Minnesota gubernatorial races have swung wildly based on debate performances. The entertaining and left-leaning Independence Party candidate Peter Hutchinson also stands to gain from the debates, almost exclusively at Mike Hatch's expense. My confidence about Pawlenty's ability to bounce back diminishes with each passing week of stagnant or declining poll numbers, but being familiar with both Pawlenty and Minnesota voters, I still have to fall on the side of a Pawlenty victory at the end of the day, made possible by a showing in the 7-10% range for Peter Hutchinson. Prediction: Pawlenty by 3.
Nebraska--Considering interim Republican Governor Dave Heineman managed to take down legendary Cornhuskers coach Tom Osborn, to most people's surprise, in last spring's Republican primary. He'll have no problem smacking down Democratic challenger David Hahn in the general election. Prediction: Heineman by 33.
Nevada--It appears likely that retiring Republican Kenny Guinn will be replaced by another Republican. GOP Congressman Jim Gibbons is the exception as a Washington Republican running in a gubernatorial race who is not being punished for it. Democratic challenger Dina Titus is within striking distance in some polls, but my money's on a modest victory for Gibbons. Prediction: Gibbons by 6.
New Hampshire--Incumbent Democrat Governor John Lynch is wildly popular in this Democratic-trending but fiscally conservative New England state, and should score an easy second term. Prediction: Lynch by 32.
New Mexico--Democratic incumbent Bill Richardson could buoy his 2008 Presidential ambitions if he scores the kind of blowout victory he's expected to in his quest for a second term in the New Mexico statehouse. Prediction: Richardson by 20.
New York--Open seats are not supposed to be landslides, but New York's gubernatorial race certainly is. Wildly popular Democratic Attorney General Elliot Spitzer is poised to score a 2-1 victory against Republican challenger John Faso to fill the seat of three-term GOP incumbent George Pataki. Prediction: Spitzer by 30. (+4 for Dems)
Ohio--Another open seat that looks to result in a landslide victory for Democrats. Retiring Republican Bob Taft will leave office in disgrace after pleading no contest to corruption charges, and is acting as an albatross around the necks of Republicans across the state of Ohio this fall. No Republican is suffering more from Taft's long shadow than this year's Republican candidate, polarizing African-American conservative Ken Blackwell. Blackwell's campaign is all but over as strong Democratic challenger is Ted Strickland, a moderate Democrat from the state's rural southern side who draws a great deal of support from Republicans and is almost certain to score a decisive victory in three weeks. Prediction: Strickland by 13. (+5 for Dems)
Oklahoma--Another popular Democratic Governor in a deeply Republican state is Brad Henry, incumbent Governor of Oklahoma who is sitting very strong in a race against a strong Republican challenger, Oklahoma City Congressman Ernest Istook. It may end up being closer than polls currently indicate simply because of the Republican strength in Oklahoma, but it seems unlikely that Henry will be beatable this year. Prediction: Henry by 10.
Oregon--There are several weak Democratic incumbents in gubernatorial races this fall, and perhaps none weaker than Oregon's Ted Kulongoski, who has a small lead in most polls against GOP challenger Ron Saxton. But with re-elect numbers hovering as low as the high 30's, Kulongoski has more than his share of critics and Oregon has enough undecided voters to make this race a true battleground. One would have to give a slight edge to Kulongoski just because of the expected Democratic tide nationally, but I expect this one to go down to the wire and would not be surprised at all if Saxton pulled it out. Prediction: Kulongoski by 2.
Pennsylvania--For a brief while following the Pittsburgh Steelers' Super Bowl win, Hall of Famer Lynn Swann was a very attractive candidate who seemed poised to put up a heckuva fight against incumbent Democrat Ed Rendell in the PA gubernatorial race. But a series of gaffes and a lackluster campaign has tanked Swann's campaign, and he's never been able to recover that lost ground. The consummate politician Rendell wouldn't have been an easy dragon to slay even if Swann had been as strong of a candidate as the GOP had originally hoped, but given how disappointing Swann has been, this race has been in the bag for Rendell for months now. Prediction: Rendell by 15.
Rhode Island--Polls are all over the place in this deep blue state where moderate Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri is generally thought to have a modest lead against Democratic challenger Jack Fogarty. It's clear that the Republican Party is in miserable standing among Rhode Island voters this year, so it's not out of the question for Fogarty to pull off an upset, but for now my money is on Carcieri hanging on. Prediction: Carcieri by 3.
South Carolina--Republican Mark Sanford is not exactly Mr. Popularity as the incumbent Governor of crimson red South Carolina, and as a result Democratic challenger Tommy Moore is within striking distance in a couple of polls. At the end of the day, however, I can't imagine South Carolina electing a Democrat to any level of statewide government no matter what the mood is nationally. Sanford will have an easy victory even though his support is soft. Prediction: Sanford by 9.
South Dakota--Republican incumbent Mike Rounds is being held surprisingly harmless by South Dakota voters for the intense division regarding the state's proposed abortion ban, despite being the guy who signed the bill into law earlier this spring. Democratic challenger Jack Billion can't seem to get a foothold in a state that has a knee-jerk association with the Republican Party in state politics. Considering the brouhaha likely to emerge with whichever way the abortion vote goes, Billion may end up glad that Rounds is the guy who has to deal with the headache. Prediction: Rounds by 17.
Tennessee--Conservative Democratic incumbent Phil Bredesen is bucking the trendline of his state, not only by being a Democrat in an increasingly red state, but an enormously popular one poised to win re-election by at least 20 points. Bredesen may be too conservative for national Democratic politics, but perhaps the Dems should give him a look nonetheless as a potential antidote to their growing electoral woes in Dixie. Prediction: Bredesen by 23.
Texas--One of the most intriguing gubernatorial races in the country, the crowded field of Texas features four candidates all likely to poll in double digits. Republican incumbent Rick Perry's popularity is in freefall, but he's still sitting pretty in his quest for re-election as his challengers are sufficiently dividing the anti-Perry vote (which is more than 60% of the collective vote in Texas) . Efforts have been made by Democrat Chris Bell to talk quirky center-left Independent candidate Kinky Friedman out of the race, but the efforts have been unsuccessful thus far. And the center-right has a candidate of their own in Independent Carole Strayhorn. The far-right base of oil barons and evangelical nutballs will be all Perry needs to hang on for another four years with as little as 35% of the vote. Prediction: Perry by 14.
Vermont--Liberal Vermont will defy conventional wisdom yet again this fall by electing a self-proclaimed Socialist to the United States Senate along with a Republican to the Governor's mansion. The Republican in question is moderate incumbent Jim Douglas, who seems poised to handily score a second term over Democratic challenger Scudder Parker. Prediction: Douglas by 13.
Wisconsin--Polls are inconclusive, but the general consensus is that incumbent Democrat Jim Doyle is favored despite his lukewarm reception by the state's voters. Doyle can likely thank national momentum for Democrats if he pulls it out against his GOP challenger, Green Bay-area Congressman Mark Green. Beyond that, Wisconsin already has a Republican-dominated Legislature and the state seems far too moderate and politically divided to choose in favor of a conservative Republican Governor that will rubber stamp the Legislature's every whim. Doyle will likely win by default, but will win nonetheless. Prediction: Doyle by 5.
Wyoming--Yet another case of a popular Democratic Governor in one of the nation's most Republican states, there is nobody who expects Democratic incumbent Dave Freudenthal to be toppled even though he lives in a state where Republicans outnumber Democrats by nearly 3-1. Prediction: Freudenthal by 27.
There are my predictions. The Dems are poised to win back five gubernatorial races if my predictions pan out, which will give Democrats the advantage in statehouse control for the first time in well over a decade. Unfortunately, statehouse control will be most important in the next round of midterms in 2010, just before new U.S. Census results will result in the next round of Congressional gerrymanders, which are usually engineered by Governor's and Legislatures state-by-state. If the Dems hang onto some of the wins they will likely pull off in 2006, their prospects of being competitive in House races in 2012 and beyond will be respectable. But if the GOP controls the statehouses and legislatures in key battleground states in 2010 as they did in 2000, the Democratic Party stands to be even more politically ghettoized than they have been so far this decade. Scary stuff, and all the more reason why Democrats need win and keep on winning these gubernatorial elections.
posted by Mark at 5:41 PM
13 Comments:
Phil could definitely have run a better campaign back home in California, but the so-called liberal media just can't stop fawning over Arnold. And thanks in part to them, our statewide offices are in danger of becoming Republican save Bill Lockyer (who will take Phil's place as treasurer) and possibly Jerry Brown.
I agree very strongly with you mark. But i have a few points to make.
1) Democrats are not doing as well in governorships as they should have this year! THEY BLEW IT! But they are doing good in the senate, ironicly.
2) Do not be suprised if Charlie wins by a 1 point margin, or a 40 point margin or Davis wins, so many people move to florida daily and leave it daily that it is impossible to know what its political make up with be.
3) Also, from what I see, the only Democrats statewide in georgia this year may be black!! Attorney General THurbert Baker, and The Land comminsoor are storngly favored. And two black congressman represent white-majority (or plurality) districts in georgia! Georgia is my southern fantasty... a racially integrated and peaceful southern state...
James
jamespol, thanks for the interesting take on those Georgia races. Is Baker really expected to win the Georgia AG race? I'll have to rethink my position on the state if that's the case. And which gubernatorial races other than California do you think the Dems blew? They're exceeding expectations in a number of races that were expected to be close (AR, CO, and OH, among others).
Sara, I was wondering how endangered other Democratic statewide officerholders in CA might be if Dem turnout is suppressed this year. Turnout was really awful in Cali in 2002, but the Dems were able to hang on then, so hopefully they'll pull it off again.
sean, I'm not especially knowledgeable about the situation with state legislatures currently sit. I know the DFL in Minnesota could very easily capture that state House (they already have the Senate), and at least one of the two narrowly divided Houses in Iowa could switch to the Dems.
The Dems are reportedly doing well in the Tennessee Legislature and could take back the Senate in Michigan from what I've read as well. A key state to look at is South Dakota, where both Houses of the Legislature are overwhelmingly Republican, but where some public backlash could be felt against supported of the draconian abortion ban last spring. My sources tell me a number of the more "urban" (at least for SD) Republicans in the state could be in some trouble for their extremist vote on the abortion ban.
Here are the latest polls on Cal's other statewide races, from the extremely accurate Field Poll (granted these are a month old, but Field hasn't released any numbers since then):
Lieutenant Governor (Cruz Bustamante (D) is term-limited): Tom McClintock (R) 42%, John Garamendi (D) 41% (this is a critical race, as McClintock is a right-wing extremist who is anti-choice and wants to abolish the minimum wage)
Attorney General (Bill Lockyer (D) is term-limited): Jerry Brown (D) 45%, Charles Poochigan (R) 30%
Secretary of State: Debra Bowen (D) 35%, incumbent Bruce McPherson (R) 33% (another critical race; Bowen is championing electoral reform)
Treasurer: Bill Lockyer (D) 52%, Claude Parrish (R) 27%
Controller: John Chiang (D) 36%, Tony Strickland (R) 30%
Insurance Commissioner (John Garamendi (D) is term-limited): Cruz Bustamante (D) 43%, Steve Poizner 39%
http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2214.pdf
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2207.pdf
Me too. I barely missed being born in the California governed by him. (February 1983)
Ugh. McClintock would be a nightmare for California. But if he's only at 42% with his high level of name ID, he's still probably an underdog given the partisan disadvantage he faces. Good to see Jerry still making the rounds politically. Still makes me laugh that he was elected Mayor in "the 'hood" (Oakland, CA).
lol Mark,
Thurbert Baker has been attorney general of georgia for a long time, and he is very popular. Expect him to run for governor in 2010!! He is more conservative then most Democrats, but he is better then nothing!
We blew:
Alabama (Democrats should have voted for Roy Moore in the Primary to help Lucy)
Georgia (Cathy Cox should have been nominated)
Florida (Well you never know,so many peoplemove in and out lately..., I predict a suprise will happen in Florida. Either Davis will win, Christ by 1 point or CHrist by 33 points)
Texas (We could have found a better candidate)
I wanted Bob Gammage to get the nod instead of Bell...
Oh. I should mention the Texas statewide offices too, since I live here. :P They are all expected to go Republican, but with about two-thirds of votes in the governor race NOT going to Perry, some of these races may be interesting. David Van Os will likely be the strongest Dem in the pack, but I would be surprised if he actually won. I'm still wholeheartedly behind him.
Right now I am listening to the Senate debate between Kay Bailey Hutchison and Barbara Ann Radnofsky. I just wanted to listen to the candidates even though this race has been a no-brainer since Kay decided to seek reelection instead of running for a demotion to the not-so-powerful governorship.
sara, is Radnofsky a decent candidate? I know she has no chance of winning, but I'm curious to whether she deserves to based on the quality of her candidacy.
From what I've seen, Barb has run a pretty good campaign, but she hasn't gotten as much attention as she deserves (kinda like Angelides) since everyone expects Kay to win, and this race has been largely overshadowed by the noisier and crazier governor race. I haven't seen any yard signs for Kay or Barb, though I did see one Barb bumper sticker.
The yard sign wars are virtually nonexistent pretty much everywhere here in North Texas. I've seen one Strayhorn yard sign in TX-32 near my boyfriend's house, and a couple of houses near my apartment decorated with Kinky yard signs. I've also seen a couple of signs for my congresscritter Mike Burgess, who is expected to win in a landslide anyway (unfortunately).
The bumper sticker wars are a bit louder. I've seen one Perry sticker, several Strayhorn and Bell stickers, and A LOT of Kinky stickers (maybe because there is a huge variety out there). Somebody even slapped a "Kinky for governor. Why the hell not?" on an apartment sign up the street from my apartment. I've also seen plenty of stickers supporting Van Os for AG. I myself have Bell, Barb, Van Os, and Tim Barnwell (sacrifical lamb to Burgess) stickers.
Statehouse control may not seem important at first glance, but it is very important for Bill Richardson, chair of the Democratic Governor's Association, and his supporters (including myself). If the Dems can clinch a majority of governorships (a 30-20 majority would be even better) then Bill will have some serious momentum going into 2008, possibly enough to pose a serious challenge to Hillary. Delivering NM-1 to the good guys can't hurt either.
I think turnout in Cali in 2002 was around 20% or so. And I think the reason that all the seats remained Dem was because of a weak GOP candidate in Bill Simon and sufficiently low Republican turnout. Repubs were hoping that the moderate former L.A. Mayor Richard Riordan would face Davis because they saw him as their best bet at knocking off the governor. There were ads that some suspected came from the Davis campaign that said that Riordan was not conservative enough for the party.
This time, however, we have a ""moderate"" Republican in Arnold who is somehow popular again thanks to amnesia and disproportionate media coverage, plus Arnold is winning some Democrat and Independent voters in a way that Simon never could.
Though interestingly, neither DiFi nor Boxer were up in 2002. I hope we have a big GOTV for DiFi and all the other good guys on the ticket this time.
Here are the results from the 2002 midterm elections:
Governor: Gray Davis (D) 47%, Bill Simon (R) 42%
Lieutenant Governor: Cruz Bustamante (D) 49%, Bruce McPherson (R) 42%
Attorney General: Bill Lockyer (D) 51%, Dick Ackerman (R) 40%
Secretary of State: Kevin Shelley (D) 46%, Keith Olberg (R) 42%
Treasurer: Phil Angelides (D) 49%, Greg Conlon (R) 41%
Controller: Steve Westly (D) 45.4%, Tom McClintock 45.1% (Scary that McClintock came that close...I think that was what he used when he campaigned in the recall)
Insurance Commissioner: John Garamendi (D) 47%, Gary Mendoza (R) 42%
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