October's GOP Asshat of the Month....and an Amendment to My Senate Predictions
With the flurry of election season and a full plate at work, I forgot about my monthly GOP Asshat of the Month coronation ceremony. Without much fanfare, I'll give this month's crown to Rush Limbaugh, whose outrageous accusations of Michael J. Fox faking his Parkinson's symptoms sucked the oxygen out of what could have a successful Republican counterattack against an over-the-top campaign ad featuring Fox, where he implied that Republican candidate Jim Talent was gonna let him die because based on Talent's opposition to federally-funded embryonic stem cell research. The would-be crisis was averted, thanks to Limbaugh who vastly trumped Fox's ad in the below-the-belt department.
I actually have two amendments to my Senate predictions from mid-October. I was a skeptic until the end, but I have now seen enough information to conclude that Democrat Sherrod Brown will defeat incumbent Republican Mike DeWine in Ohio. However, I predict Brown's victory will be a zero-sum game because I now expect Republican Michael Steele to score the upset of the night against Ben Cardin in Maryland. I held onto my prediction for Cardin until Monday, when more than half of the black members of the Prince George's County board (Steele's home county) endorsed Steele. Polls released today showed Cardin holding onto a modest lead, but I'm expecting a large number of black voters to switch allegiances in the clutch, ultimately choosing race over party.
I'm nervous about Jon Tester's ever-shrinking lead in Montana, but I expect he'll hang on. I stand by all of my House predictions from mid-October, even though I'm really skeptical about whether John Barrow will hang on in GA-12. I also stand by gubernatorial predictions, but have doubts about my guesses in Minnesota, Iowa, and Maryland.
I actually have two amendments to my Senate predictions from mid-October. I was a skeptic until the end, but I have now seen enough information to conclude that Democrat Sherrod Brown will defeat incumbent Republican Mike DeWine in Ohio. However, I predict Brown's victory will be a zero-sum game because I now expect Republican Michael Steele to score the upset of the night against Ben Cardin in Maryland. I held onto my prediction for Cardin until Monday, when more than half of the black members of the Prince George's County board (Steele's home county) endorsed Steele. Polls released today showed Cardin holding onto a modest lead, but I'm expecting a large number of black voters to switch allegiances in the clutch, ultimately choosing race over party.
I'm nervous about Jon Tester's ever-shrinking lead in Montana, but I expect he'll hang on. I stand by all of my House predictions from mid-October, even though I'm really skeptical about whether John Barrow will hang on in GA-12. I also stand by gubernatorial predictions, but have doubts about my guesses in Minnesota, Iowa, and Maryland.
posted by Mark at 9:00 PM
4 Comments:
I just found out on Kos that Barack Obama will be appearing in a rally today with Cardin, so that may help him recover some of the black vote.
I also just found out from some friends that the California Secretary of State expects a 55% turnout this year...more than double (and in fact almost triple) the turnout from 2002. Almost half of that turnout (44%) will be from absentee ballots, which have been surprisingly slow to arrive. I don't expect the turnout to have much of an effect on the governor race, but it could have a great effect on the critical races down-ballot.
Field just released their latest polls on the statewide races and some of the props (unfortunately the all-important Prop 89 (Clean Money and Clean Elections) was not in there).
Lieutenant Governor: Garamendi (D) 44%, McClintock (R) 43%
Attorney General: Brown (D) 56%, Poochigan (R) 31%
Treasurer: Lockyer (D) 45%, Parrish (R) 26%
Secretary of State: Bowen (D) 40%, McPherson (R) 34%
Controller: Chiang (D) 38%, Strickland (R) 31%
Insurance Commissioner: Poizner (R) 46% Bustamante (D) 37%
Prop 85 (Parental notification for minors to seek an abortion; like Prop 73 from last year - I STRONGLY OPPOSE): Pass 46-43
Prop 86 (Tobacco tax - I STRONGLY OPPOSE): Tied 45-45 - it was comfortably passing just months ago
Prop 87 (Tax on oil companies to fun research on alternative energy - I STRONGLY SUPPORT): Fail 40-44
Prop 90 (Eminent domain trojan horse - I STRONGLY OPPOSE): Fail 35-42
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2217.pdf
http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/RLS2218.pdf
I'm nervous too.
I am now optimistic on the House (though less optimistic than I was a few weeks ago), worried about the Senate, and very worried about the California races (statewide and props).
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