Early Exit Polls Look Great for Donks
Some leaked exit polls for battleground Senate races were released in the past hour. They look fantastic for Democrats, and go as follows:
Virginia (52-47 Webb)
Rhode Island (53-46 Whitehouse)
Pennsylvania (57-42 Casey)
Ohio (57-43 Brown)
New Jersey (52-45 Menendez)
Montana (53-46 Tester)
Missouri (50-48 McCaskill)
Maryland (53-46 Cardin)
The only bad news isn't even as bad as predicted:
Tennessee (51-48 Corker)
Arizona (50-46 Kyl)
But let's not get cocky too early. We did in 2004 when these same exit polls showed John Kerry winning in a walk only to be proven disastrously wrong a few hours later. Exit polls tend of oversample urban area and wildly undersample conservative rural areas. If that holds true this time, McCaskill's scant advantage in Missouri could be the most tenuous. Still, I'm cautiously optimistic heading into the 7 p.m. hour (eastern time) when we should have a much better idea how the winds are blowing.
Virginia (52-47 Webb)
Rhode Island (53-46 Whitehouse)
Pennsylvania (57-42 Casey)
Ohio (57-43 Brown)
New Jersey (52-45 Menendez)
Montana (53-46 Tester)
Missouri (50-48 McCaskill)
Maryland (53-46 Cardin)
The only bad news isn't even as bad as predicted:
Tennessee (51-48 Corker)
Arizona (50-46 Kyl)
But let's not get cocky too early. We did in 2004 when these same exit polls showed John Kerry winning in a walk only to be proven disastrously wrong a few hours later. Exit polls tend of oversample urban area and wildly undersample conservative rural areas. If that holds true this time, McCaskill's scant advantage in Missouri could be the most tenuous. Still, I'm cautiously optimistic heading into the 7 p.m. hour (eastern time) when we should have a much better idea how the winds are blowing.
1 Comments:
sara, thanks for the congratulations on the Walz victory. I could feel that one coming. Sorry there weren't many upsets in your neck of the woods. Maybe we'll be able to get TX-23 in the runoff. DO you know when that is?
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