Early Exit Polls Look Great for Donks
Some leaked exit polls for battleground Senate races were released in the past hour. They look fantastic for Democrats, and go as follows:
Virginia (52-47 Webb)
Rhode Island (53-46 Whitehouse)
Pennsylvania (57-42 Casey)
Ohio (57-43 Brown)
New Jersey (52-45 Menendez)
Montana (53-46 Tester)
Missouri (50-48 McCaskill)
Maryland (53-46 Cardin)
The only bad news isn't even as bad as predicted:
Tennessee (51-48 Corker)
Arizona (50-46 Kyl)
But let's not get cocky too early. We did in 2004 when these same exit polls showed John Kerry winning in a walk only to be proven disastrously wrong a few hours later. Exit polls tend of oversample urban area and wildly undersample conservative rural areas. If that holds true this time, McCaskill's scant advantage in Missouri could be the most tenuous. Still, I'm cautiously optimistic heading into the 7 p.m. hour (eastern time) when we should have a much better idea how the winds are blowing.
Virginia (52-47 Webb)
Rhode Island (53-46 Whitehouse)
Pennsylvania (57-42 Casey)
Ohio (57-43 Brown)
New Jersey (52-45 Menendez)
Montana (53-46 Tester)
Missouri (50-48 McCaskill)
Maryland (53-46 Cardin)
The only bad news isn't even as bad as predicted:
Tennessee (51-48 Corker)
Arizona (50-46 Kyl)
But let's not get cocky too early. We did in 2004 when these same exit polls showed John Kerry winning in a walk only to be proven disastrously wrong a few hours later. Exit polls tend of oversample urban area and wildly undersample conservative rural areas. If that holds true this time, McCaskill's scant advantage in Missouri could be the most tenuous. Still, I'm cautiously optimistic heading into the 7 p.m. hour (eastern time) when we should have a much better idea how the winds are blowing.
posted by Mark at 3:51 PM
11 Comments:
CNN just called Ohio for BROWN!!!
I mentioned a while back but completely forgot in all the election madness that the Senate challenger I'm most like is Amy Klobuchar. I am one of the "quiet" liberals on the discussion board (Dave Leip's U.S. Election Atlas), and Amy is expected to be a "quiet" liberal senator, like Jack Reed.
CNN just called Iowa Gov for Culver!
YEAH!!!
I'm amazed at the House races that we managed to win that no one expected us to (Iowa-02, Kansas-02, New Hampshire-01).
I'm ready for Madam Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Are you? ;-)
I'm keeping close watch on the California races. Arnold wins a second term. :'(
Lieutenant Governor: Garamendi (D) 47.7%, McClintock (R) 47%
Secretary of State: McPherson (R) 47%, Bowen (D) 46.4%
Controller: Chaing (D) 49.1%, Strickland 42.1%
Treasurer: Lockyer (D) 53.1%, Parrish (R) 38.9%
Attorney General: Brown (D) 54.6%, Poochigan (R) 40.1%
Insurance Commissioner: Poizner (R) 52.2%, Bustamante (D) 37.3% (I'm not too concerned about this race; if I lived in California I would have probably voted third party since I can't stand Cruz and I don't like Poizner either)
1A (Transportation Funding Protection): Pass 77.1%-22.9%
1B (Highway/Air/Port Bond): Pass 60.6%-39.4%
1C (Housing Shelter Fund): Pass 56.7%-43.3%
1D (School Facility Bond): Pass 54.7%-45.3%
1E (Disaster/Flood Bond): Pass 63.6%-36.4%
83 (Sex Offender Reform): Pass 70.4%-29.6% <-- Not Good
84 (Water/Flood/Park): Pass 52.5%-47.5% <-- Good
85 (Parental Notification for Minors to Obtain an Abortion): Fail 46.8%-53.2% <-- Good
86 (Cigarette Tax): Fail 46.6%-53.4% <-- Good
87 (Energy/Oil Tax): Fail 43.7%-56.3% <-- Very bad
88 (Educ. Fund/Prop. Tax): Fail 22.1%-77.9% <-- Good
89 (Campaign Public Funding): Fail 24.7%-75.3% <-- Absolutely terrible
90 (Eminent Domain Trojan Horse): Fail 48.4%-51.6% <-- Very good
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And, Sean and Mark, I'm so happy for both of you on both your home districts going to the good guys. Maybe we can get Russ Warner to challenge David Dreier in mine in 2008.
WAHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Amazing. Just one year ago at this time I thought we didn't have a snowball's chance in hell of taking back Congress. Now say hello to Majority Leader Harry Reid and Madame Speaker Nancy Pelosi!!!
sara, thanks for the congratulations on the Walz victory. I could feel that one coming. Sorry there weren't many upsets in your neck of the woods. Maybe we'll be able to get TX-23 in the runoff. DO you know when that is?
The TX-23 runoff is next month, though the exact date isn't up yet. I'm glad Rodriguez will face Bonilla, as he is considered the Dems' best bet against Bonilla.
I'm not sure about Texas, but in California we definitely have room for improvement. Maybe when I return I can suggest a "53-district strategy", with fellow CA-26er and Rancho Cucamongan Russ Warner leading the way.
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