My Final Tally
Now that Larry Kissell has conceded in NC-08, I believe the outcome of every election in the country has now been confirmed, even though Victoria Wulsin still hasn't officially thrown in the towel in OH-02. I was way too cautious in my predictions and ended up faring much worse than I did in 2002 and 2004, not that I'm complaining about being wrong this time. Let's take a look at which battleground races I got right and which I got wrong, both in the Senate and the House.
Senate: I was generally on the mark in Arizona, where I predicted Kyl would win by 7; in Connecticut, where I predicted Lieberman to win by 7; Nevada, where I predicted Ensign by 13; Rhode Island, where I predicted Sheldon Whitehouse would upset Lincoln Chafee by four points; and Tennessee, where I predicted Corker would win by five.
I predicted the right winner, but was way off on the margins in Michigan (I predicted Stabenow by 7; she won by 16); Minnesota (I predicted Klobuchar by 5; she won by 20); Montana (I predicted Tester by 8; he eked out a one-point victory); New Jersey (I predicted Menendez by 4; he won by 9); Ohio (I amendedly predicted Brown by 2; he won by a whopping 12); and Pennsylvania (I predicted Casey by 5; he ended up smashing Santorum by 17).
I predicted the incorrect winners in the Senate races in Maryland (where my original prediction of Cardin by 6 was infinitely closer to my amended prediction of Steele by 1), Missouri, and Virginia.
Overall, I predicted a net gain of three Senate seats for the Democrats, missing the target by three as the Dems picked up six seats.
In the House, my record was even more abysmal, as this was the most unpredictable year for House elections in my lifetime. I never made predictions for House elections before this year, so I have nothing to compare to it to, but suffice it to say I will almost certainly have better predicting success in 2008.
Successful calls in battleground races: AZ-01 (Rick Renzi), AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords), CA-04 (John Doolittle), CA-50 (Brian Bilbray), CO-03 (John Salazar), CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave), CO-05 (Doug Lamborn), CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter), CT-02 (Joe Courtney, winning by the narrowest margin of any House race in the country), FL-09 (Gus Bilirakis), FL-16 (Tm Mahoney), GA-08 (Jim Marshall), GA-12 (John Barrow), ID-01 (Bill Sali), IL-06 (Peter Roskam), IL-08 (Melissa Bean), IL-10 (Mark Kirk), IN-02 (Chris Chocola), IN-08 (Brad Ellsworth, even though I was way off on the margin), IN-09 (Baron Hill), IA-01 (Bruce Braley, but again I seriously lowballed the margin), IA-03 (Leonard Boswell), KY-02 (Ron Lewis), KY-04 (Geoff Davis), LA-02 (Charlie Melancon), MI-07 (Tim Walberg), MI-09 (Joseph Knollenberg), MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter), MN-02 (John Kline), MN-06 (Michelle Bachmann), NE-01 (Jeff Fortenberry), NE-03 (Adrian Smith), NV-02 (Dean Heller), NV-03 (John Porter, although I underestimated the strength of Tessa Hafen's challenge), NY-03 (Peter King), NY-24 (Michael Arcuri), NY-25 (James Walsh), NY-29 (Randy Kuhl), NC-08 (Robin Hayes, a race I'm still sick about since the DCCC all but ignored it even though it was one of the closest race in the country), OH-02 (Jean Schmidt), OH-06 (Charlie Wilson), OH-12 (Pat Tiberi), OH-13 (Betty Sutton), OH-18 (Zack Space, although I seriously lowballed his margin), PA-07 (Joe Sestak), PA-10 (Chris Carney), SC-05 (John Spratt), TN-09 (Steve Cohen, who won much more handily than I expected with Harold Ford's brother in the race third-party), TX-17 (Chet Edwards), TX-22 (Nick Lampson), VT-AL (Peter Welch), VA-02 (Thelma Drake), WA-05 (Cathy McMorris), WA-08 (Dave Reichert), WV-01 (Alan Mollohan), WV-02 (Shelley Moore Capito), and WY-AL (Barbara Cubin, although I was shocked by how close it was).
Near-misses: CT-04 (Chris Shays holding on over Diane Farrell), FL-13 (Vern Buchanan over Christine Jennings), KY-03 (John Yarmuth over Anne Northup), NM-01 (Heather Wilson hanging on over Patricia Madrid), OH-15 (Deborah Pryce over Mary Jo Kilroy), PA-06 (Jim Gerlach over Lois Murphy), PA-08 (Patrick Murphy over Mike Fitzpatrick), and WI-08 (Steve Kagen over John Gard).
And finally, I was WAY off with these erroneous howlers: AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell over J.D. Hayworth), CA-11 (Jerry McNerney over Richard Pombo), CT-05 (Chris Murphy over Nancy Johnson), FL-22 (Ron Klein over Clay Shaw), IA-02 (Dave Loebsack over Jim Leach), KS-02 (Nancy Boyda over Jim Ryun), MN-01 (Tim Walz over Gil Gutknecht, and I'm particularly pleased that I got this one wrong), NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter over Jeb Bradley, my biggest blunder of a call in 2006), NH-02 (Paul Hodes over Charles Bass), NY-19 (John Hall over Sue Kelly, another stunner), NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand over John Sweeney), NY-26 (Tom Reynolds coming back from near-death a month earlier to beat Jack Davis), NC-11 (Heath Shuler over Charles Taylor), OH-01 (Steve Chabot easily hanging on against John Cranley), and PA-04 (Jason Altmire over Melissa Hart).
True, I did call more races correctly than incorrectly, but I fumbled most of the true battlegrounds and didn't see a significant number of longshot candidates like Shea-Porter, Altmire, or Loebsack coming. Then again, most people didn't. Overall, I predicted a net gain of 20 Democratic seats and it looks as though they'll pick up 29 seats, unless Rodriguez manages to upset Henry Bonilla in the TX-23 runoff next month, which I expect is unlikely. I guess if I have to be wrong, I prefer to error on the side of too FEW calls for Democrats rather than too many.
Senate: I was generally on the mark in Arizona, where I predicted Kyl would win by 7; in Connecticut, where I predicted Lieberman to win by 7; Nevada, where I predicted Ensign by 13; Rhode Island, where I predicted Sheldon Whitehouse would upset Lincoln Chafee by four points; and Tennessee, where I predicted Corker would win by five.
I predicted the right winner, but was way off on the margins in Michigan (I predicted Stabenow by 7; she won by 16); Minnesota (I predicted Klobuchar by 5; she won by 20); Montana (I predicted Tester by 8; he eked out a one-point victory); New Jersey (I predicted Menendez by 4; he won by 9); Ohio (I amendedly predicted Brown by 2; he won by a whopping 12); and Pennsylvania (I predicted Casey by 5; he ended up smashing Santorum by 17).
I predicted the incorrect winners in the Senate races in Maryland (where my original prediction of Cardin by 6 was infinitely closer to my amended prediction of Steele by 1), Missouri, and Virginia.
Overall, I predicted a net gain of three Senate seats for the Democrats, missing the target by three as the Dems picked up six seats.
In the House, my record was even more abysmal, as this was the most unpredictable year for House elections in my lifetime. I never made predictions for House elections before this year, so I have nothing to compare to it to, but suffice it to say I will almost certainly have better predicting success in 2008.
Successful calls in battleground races: AZ-01 (Rick Renzi), AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords), CA-04 (John Doolittle), CA-50 (Brian Bilbray), CO-03 (John Salazar), CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave), CO-05 (Doug Lamborn), CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter), CT-02 (Joe Courtney, winning by the narrowest margin of any House race in the country), FL-09 (Gus Bilirakis), FL-16 (Tm Mahoney), GA-08 (Jim Marshall), GA-12 (John Barrow), ID-01 (Bill Sali), IL-06 (Peter Roskam), IL-08 (Melissa Bean), IL-10 (Mark Kirk), IN-02 (Chris Chocola), IN-08 (Brad Ellsworth, even though I was way off on the margin), IN-09 (Baron Hill), IA-01 (Bruce Braley, but again I seriously lowballed the margin), IA-03 (Leonard Boswell), KY-02 (Ron Lewis), KY-04 (Geoff Davis), LA-02 (Charlie Melancon), MI-07 (Tim Walberg), MI-09 (Joseph Knollenberg), MI-11 (Thaddeus McCotter), MN-02 (John Kline), MN-06 (Michelle Bachmann), NE-01 (Jeff Fortenberry), NE-03 (Adrian Smith), NV-02 (Dean Heller), NV-03 (John Porter, although I underestimated the strength of Tessa Hafen's challenge), NY-03 (Peter King), NY-24 (Michael Arcuri), NY-25 (James Walsh), NY-29 (Randy Kuhl), NC-08 (Robin Hayes, a race I'm still sick about since the DCCC all but ignored it even though it was one of the closest race in the country), OH-02 (Jean Schmidt), OH-06 (Charlie Wilson), OH-12 (Pat Tiberi), OH-13 (Betty Sutton), OH-18 (Zack Space, although I seriously lowballed his margin), PA-07 (Joe Sestak), PA-10 (Chris Carney), SC-05 (John Spratt), TN-09 (Steve Cohen, who won much more handily than I expected with Harold Ford's brother in the race third-party), TX-17 (Chet Edwards), TX-22 (Nick Lampson), VT-AL (Peter Welch), VA-02 (Thelma Drake), WA-05 (Cathy McMorris), WA-08 (Dave Reichert), WV-01 (Alan Mollohan), WV-02 (Shelley Moore Capito), and WY-AL (Barbara Cubin, although I was shocked by how close it was).
Near-misses: CT-04 (Chris Shays holding on over Diane Farrell), FL-13 (Vern Buchanan over Christine Jennings), KY-03 (John Yarmuth over Anne Northup), NM-01 (Heather Wilson hanging on over Patricia Madrid), OH-15 (Deborah Pryce over Mary Jo Kilroy), PA-06 (Jim Gerlach over Lois Murphy), PA-08 (Patrick Murphy over Mike Fitzpatrick), and WI-08 (Steve Kagen over John Gard).
And finally, I was WAY off with these erroneous howlers: AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell over J.D. Hayworth), CA-11 (Jerry McNerney over Richard Pombo), CT-05 (Chris Murphy over Nancy Johnson), FL-22 (Ron Klein over Clay Shaw), IA-02 (Dave Loebsack over Jim Leach), KS-02 (Nancy Boyda over Jim Ryun), MN-01 (Tim Walz over Gil Gutknecht, and I'm particularly pleased that I got this one wrong), NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter over Jeb Bradley, my biggest blunder of a call in 2006), NH-02 (Paul Hodes over Charles Bass), NY-19 (John Hall over Sue Kelly, another stunner), NY-20 (Kirsten Gillibrand over John Sweeney), NY-26 (Tom Reynolds coming back from near-death a month earlier to beat Jack Davis), NC-11 (Heath Shuler over Charles Taylor), OH-01 (Steve Chabot easily hanging on against John Cranley), and PA-04 (Jason Altmire over Melissa Hart).
True, I did call more races correctly than incorrectly, but I fumbled most of the true battlegrounds and didn't see a significant number of longshot candidates like Shea-Porter, Altmire, or Loebsack coming. Then again, most people didn't. Overall, I predicted a net gain of 20 Democratic seats and it looks as though they'll pick up 29 seats, unless Rodriguez manages to upset Henry Bonilla in the TX-23 runoff next month, which I expect is unlikely. I guess if I have to be wrong, I prefer to error on the side of too FEW calls for Democrats rather than too many.
posted by Mark at 9:14 PM
4 Comments:
I did well in my predictions, predicting a 32-seat pickup in the House, was spot-on in the Senate, and got every governor race right except one. I'm glad I used my formula predictions here, because they ended up mostly right where my gut was wrong on races such as AZ-05, CT-05, and KY-03.
I had a feeling that McNerney would pull it out, albeit by a narrower margin than the actual result. CA-11 is trending in favor of the Democrats as it transforms from a rural agricultural district to a bedroom community for commuters to the Bay Area. McNerney ran an awesome grassroots-based campaign that almost no one noticed and took seriously because McNerney beat the DLC candidate in the primary. So in a way McNerney is like our own Jon Tester! And CA-11 is nowhere near as red as Montana is, so I am somewhat confident Jerry will be around for quite a while. And hopefully McNerney and Sec of State-Elect Debra Bowen will be a sign of things to come in the Golden State...
Some more good news just rolled in: Pelosi chose Silvestre Reyes (D-El Paso) to head the Intel Committee. I'm beyond relieved, especially since the tainted Hastings wasn't chosen.
Almost everyone thought Talent would pull it out LMAO
And at least Texas will be represented in one committee. Thanks to the bug-man, we don't have congressman that could have chaired other committees. Martin Frost (who I campaigned for in 2004 when I lived in TX-32) would have chaired the Rules Committee.
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