Final Thoughts Regarding GOTV
It's all over but the voting at this point (and for millions of Americans, the voting's already over!). The last-minute campaign rallies are in their final throes and the fate of dozens of candidates in competitive races across the country has been entrusted in the hands of voters. The winners will be whichever candidate is best able to get their base out and convince the majority of independents to their side. With that in mind, how does GOTV help or hurt the good guys in their respective Senate races? Let's take a look.....
Connecticut--Lieberman's commanding lead is unlikely to hold up in the polls because he has no firm organizational ground game. A number of Republicans are probably quietly carrying water for him, but it's not an organized effort. Furthermore, Lieberman's name will appear near the bottom of a crowded ballot, underneath several fringe candidates who will likely far less than 1% of the vote. The hope that Schlesinger would pull in enough conservatives with his red-meat Republican message seems unlikely to come to fruition at this point, but I still see some narrowing in the final tally between Lieberman and Lamont. Lieberman will ultimately get a comfortable win though, which I wouldn't have anticipated in August after his primary defeat.
Maryland--Since Maryland has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, neither party has a very strong GOTV operation in the state, meaning voter turnout expectations are anybody's guess here.
Missouri--There's no question that the Republicans have a superior ground game in Missouri, and some of the reports out of McCaskill's GOTV operation are troubling. With that said, Missouri Republicans have yet to publicly flex their ground game's muscle, and in fact, significantly underperformed expectations against Jean Carnahan in both 2000 and 2002, the latter of which was a contest against Jim Talent and which Republicans thought they would win in a walk heading into Election Day. Even in 2004, George Bush and Governor Matt Blunt scored victories in Missouri, but neither exceeded the expectations of the final polls. Assuming McCaskill is able to get independent voters to the polls in sufficient enough numbers, a victory by her is not out of the question no matter how many GOP foot soldiers are deployed to save Talent.
Montana--At a ground game level, Republicans have full control of rural Montana. On the other hand, reports suggest that early voting is favoring Tester by massive margins, which means some of the hard-core Democratic partisans will be available tomorrow to rally the troops in strongholds like the college town of Missoula and the mining town of Butte. Put it's probably a safe bet that far more people will be voting for Conrad Burns TOMORROW than Jon Tester. The only question is are there enough of them to offset Tester's huge margin in early voting.
Ohio--Even though it looks like Sherrod Brown has this one in the bag, the GOP clearly gets their base out in Ohio as evidenced by the 2004 Presidential election. I hope the Dems aren't asleep at wheel, because recent polls show the race is tightening slightly.
Rhode Island--This one's really getting scary. Bob Novak cited internal polling in the Whitehouse campaign verifying Chafee's lead while pointy-headed pundits on MSNBC suggested tonight that RI may actually be a bigger battleground than Missouri at this point. Regardless of ground game, if independent voters in indigo blue Rhode Island can't comprehend what's at stake here and plan to enable Chafee to keep the Senate in GOP hands, the Dems are in deep trouble tomorrow.
Virginia--Rumor has it that since Virginia has just emerged as a swing state in the last couple of years, the Republicans don't have a very good ground game in the state. Unfortunately, Democrats don't either, and Webb's victory hinges upon high turnout among new voters in the northern Virginia suburbs. That could be a tall order in a midterm year, but I'm modestly optimistic here with the momentum clearly on Webb's side.
With some better-looking generic ballot advantages for Democrats today (+13 in Fox, +20 in CNN), I'm feeling a little better than I did last night. On the other hand, omnipresent rumors of Rhode Island slipping away from us are deeply troubling. I'll try to get a good night's sleep tonight because I'll need it for tomorrow, and I recommend others do the same.
Connecticut--Lieberman's commanding lead is unlikely to hold up in the polls because he has no firm organizational ground game. A number of Republicans are probably quietly carrying water for him, but it's not an organized effort. Furthermore, Lieberman's name will appear near the bottom of a crowded ballot, underneath several fringe candidates who will likely far less than 1% of the vote. The hope that Schlesinger would pull in enough conservatives with his red-meat Republican message seems unlikely to come to fruition at this point, but I still see some narrowing in the final tally between Lieberman and Lamont. Lieberman will ultimately get a comfortable win though, which I wouldn't have anticipated in August after his primary defeat.
Maryland--Since Maryland has been a Democratic stronghold for decades, neither party has a very strong GOTV operation in the state, meaning voter turnout expectations are anybody's guess here.
Missouri--There's no question that the Republicans have a superior ground game in Missouri, and some of the reports out of McCaskill's GOTV operation are troubling. With that said, Missouri Republicans have yet to publicly flex their ground game's muscle, and in fact, significantly underperformed expectations against Jean Carnahan in both 2000 and 2002, the latter of which was a contest against Jim Talent and which Republicans thought they would win in a walk heading into Election Day. Even in 2004, George Bush and Governor Matt Blunt scored victories in Missouri, but neither exceeded the expectations of the final polls. Assuming McCaskill is able to get independent voters to the polls in sufficient enough numbers, a victory by her is not out of the question no matter how many GOP foot soldiers are deployed to save Talent.
Montana--At a ground game level, Republicans have full control of rural Montana. On the other hand, reports suggest that early voting is favoring Tester by massive margins, which means some of the hard-core Democratic partisans will be available tomorrow to rally the troops in strongholds like the college town of Missoula and the mining town of Butte. Put it's probably a safe bet that far more people will be voting for Conrad Burns TOMORROW than Jon Tester. The only question is are there enough of them to offset Tester's huge margin in early voting.
Ohio--Even though it looks like Sherrod Brown has this one in the bag, the GOP clearly gets their base out in Ohio as evidenced by the 2004 Presidential election. I hope the Dems aren't asleep at wheel, because recent polls show the race is tightening slightly.
Rhode Island--This one's really getting scary. Bob Novak cited internal polling in the Whitehouse campaign verifying Chafee's lead while pointy-headed pundits on MSNBC suggested tonight that RI may actually be a bigger battleground than Missouri at this point. Regardless of ground game, if independent voters in indigo blue Rhode Island can't comprehend what's at stake here and plan to enable Chafee to keep the Senate in GOP hands, the Dems are in deep trouble tomorrow.
Virginia--Rumor has it that since Virginia has just emerged as a swing state in the last couple of years, the Republicans don't have a very good ground game in the state. Unfortunately, Democrats don't either, and Webb's victory hinges upon high turnout among new voters in the northern Virginia suburbs. That could be a tall order in a midterm year, but I'm modestly optimistic here with the momentum clearly on Webb's side.
With some better-looking generic ballot advantages for Democrats today (+13 in Fox, +20 in CNN), I'm feeling a little better than I did last night. On the other hand, omnipresent rumors of Rhode Island slipping away from us are deeply troubling. I'll try to get a good night's sleep tonight because I'll need it for tomorrow, and I recommend others do the same.
posted by Mark at 7:26 PM
2 Comments:
sean, I live in IA-03, a quasi-battleground district between geriatric moderate Democrat Leonard Boswell and uber-conservative GOP rubber stamp Jeff Lamberti. I was very nervous three months ago as Boswell underwent heart transplant surgery last fall, missed several months worth of votes and looked deathly ill when he finally resurfaced in the spring. He's back now though, much slimmer and with some renewed energy. Lamberti was sold to central Iowa as an attractive top-tier candidate, but his almost exclusively sleazy campaign has gotten no traction in a political climate like this, with him actually falling from an 11-point deficit against Boswell in August to a 13-point deficit today. Lamberti is so conservative that I could only see him being competitive in this 50-50 district. I hope Boswell stomps him out like a spent cigarette butt tomorrow night and puts him out of his misery.
Can you confirm or deny a late surge towards Kirsten Gillibrand in your home district? I gotta admit I never thought she'd be taking down John Sweeney even a month ago.
I heard that turnout in Cali is expected to be low (55%) and with mostly absentee ballots, though CA-11 may see slightly higher turnout because the Dems' likely lone victory in the state is right here. (Sac-town may see high turnout as well.) Just months ago even I couldn't imagine McNerney being this competitive against the corrupt anti-environmentalist Pombo. But now even Larry Sabato is calling this district an extremely weak upset by McNerney.
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