Rudimentary Predictions on Battleground House Races

I've only recently become engaged in this year's House races, and have been rather amazed to notice just how many seats appear to be in play this year, both because of retirements and vulnerable incumbents. If anything, the battleground seems to be much larger than it was two years ago when the Democrats gained 30 seats. Overall, the picture looks quite good for Democrats to make at least modest gains, and potentially running the table. I must plead ignorance to specifics on some of these races, but here is my basic assessment of what can expect on November 4....

Democratic Seats (Lean/Likely Holds)
AL-05 (vacated by Bud Cramer)--would seem like an excellent opportunity for the GOP, but most see the Dem candidate as strongly likely to hold the open seat
AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell)--I would have predicted this one to go back to the GOP, particularly with McCain's home state coattails, but the Republican challenger is getting little buzz
AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords)
CO-02 (vacated by Mark Udall)
CO-07 (Ed Perlmutter)
CT-02 (Joe Courtney)
CT-05 (Chris Murphy)
FL-22 (Ron Klein)
GA-12 (John Barrow)
IL-08 (Melissa Bean)
IL-14 (Bill Foster)--no serious opposition, but he'll be taken out at some point in this district
IN-02 (Joe Donnelly)
IN-08 (Brad Ellsworth)
IN-09 (Baron Hill)--GOP challenger Mike Sodrel doesn't seem to be putting up as serious of challenge as he has in all of his first three challenges to Hill
IA-01 (Bruce Braley)
IA-02 (Dave Loebsack)
IA-03 (Leonard Boswell)--should be Boswell's first easy election since being redistricted into Des Moines in 2002
KY-03 (John Yarmuth)--Yarmuth's lucky to be in the only district in Kentucky that's not likely to experience devastating countercoattails from Barack Obama at the top of the ticket
LA-03 (Charlie Melancon)
ME-01 (vacated by Tom Allen)
MA-05 (Niki Tsongas)
MN-01 (Tim Walz)
MS-01 (Travis Childers)--not sure what it is about this guy that makes him electable in the Deep South, but he's looking good for winning the general in November
NH-02 (Paul Hodes)
NM-03 (vacated by Tom Udall)
NY-19 (John Hall)
NY-20 (Kristen Gillibrand)
NY-24 (Michael Arcuri)
NC-11 (Heath Shuler)
OH-18 (Zack Space)--would have been hard to believe two years ago that this perceived lightweight who stumbled into Bob Ney's old seat would prove to be so popular among his constituents
PA-04 (Jason Altmire)--kind of a tough call on this one, particularly since Altmire will likely face a headwind in this district from Barack Obama
PA-07 (Joe Sestak)
PA-08 (Patrick Murphy)
SC-05 (John Spratt)
TN-04 (Lincoln Davis)
TX-17 (Chet Edwards)--he continues to live on borrowed time, but doesn't seem likely to fall this year
TX-23 (Ciro Rodriguez)--this district still leans Republican, so it's kind of a tough call, but it's more Hispanic every day, so the Republican white boy running seems to have a tall order
UT-02 (Jim Matheson)

Republican Seats (lean/likely holds)
AL-02 (vacated by Terry Everett)--the Dems have a strong recruit in the mayor of Montgomery, but it seems hard to believe a Democrat could take a seat in Lower Alabama with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket under any circumstance
AK-AL (Don Young)--just like Ted Stevens, the coattails of Sarah Palin will save Young from overdue extinction
CA-04 (vacated by John Doolittle)--McClintock found a district perfect for him, likely denying Democrat Charlie Brown a perfect opportunity for a pickup
CT-04 (Chris Shays)--if they couldn't take him out last time, I'm doubtful they will this time
FL-13 (Vern Buchanan)
FL-21 (Lincoln Diaz-Balart)
FL-24 (Tom Feeney)
FL-25 (Mario Diaz-Balart)
ID-01 (Bill Sali)--arguably the most gaffe-prone wingnut in Congress, but this is Idaho...even Larry Craig would get elected running as a Republican
IL-10 (Mark Kirk)--always stays ahead of the curve to avoid becoming too vulnerable in an increasingly blue district
IL-18 (vacated by Ray LaHood)
IA-04 (Tom Latham)
LA-04 (vacated by Jim McCrery)
MD-01 (vacated by Wayne Gilchrest)--potentially one to watch with the Democrat endorsed by outgoing Republican Gilchrest, but it's still a tough district for Dems
MI-07 (Tim Walberg)--tough call, but weak Obama coattails should be helpful for Walberg
MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg)
MN-03 (vacated by Jim Ramstad)--Ashwin Madia's an appealing candidate, but I still suspect Terri Bonoff would have played better in this district...leans narrowly to Republican Paulsen
MN-06 (Michelle Bachmann)--sad that Democrat Tinklenberg isn't putting up a more serious challenge against this nut
MO-06 (Sam Graves)
MO-09 (vacated by Kenny Hulshof)
NE-02 (Lee Terry)
NV-02 (who is it again? Dean Heller?)
NM-02 (vacated by Steve Pearce)
NY-26 (vacated by Tom Reynolds)--Dems totally blew it by selecting the weak Alice Kryzan over Jon Powers in the primary; now it's advantage Republican with Chris Lee
NY-29 (Randy Kuhl)
OH-02 (Jean Schmidt)--another of Congress's most deplorable and reckless members who keeps slipping by because of her crimson-red district
OH-16 (vacated by Ralph Regula)--I'm not sure about the contenders in this district but it still leans GOP enough to make me give them a slight edge here
PA-06 (Jim Gerlach)--the Moby Dick of GOP Congressman is going largely uncontested this year, likely giving him his first victory better than 51-49 in four tries
PA-18 (Tim Murphy)
VA-02 (Thelma Drake)--we barely missed in our opportunity to snuff her out two years ago, and may never get another chance
VA-10 (Frank Wolf)
WA-08 (Dave Reichert)--I suspect Dems will finally give up their biennial quest to take out Reichert after the latest Darcy Burner failure
WV-02 (Shelley Moore Capito)
WY-AL (vacated by Barbara Cubin)--as strong of a candidate as Gary Trauner is, it's just hard to imagine he can win in Wyoming

Lean/Likely Turnovers to Dems
AZ-01 (vacated by Rick Renzi)--when the incumbent is prison-bound in a swing district, it's usually a safe bet that the opposition party takes the open seat
CO-04 (Marilyn Musgrave)--the fast-changing demographics of eastern Colorado coupled with this year's expectedly large turnout for Obama probably means Musgrave's hourglass finally ran out of sand
IL-11 (vacated by Jerry Weller)--with Barack Obama's home state coattails, Dem Debbie Halvorson would seem to have a distinct advantage in this open seat
NV-03 (Jon Porter)--robust Vegas-area turnout and a top-tier challenger in Dina Titus is probably gonna be Porter's undoing this year
NJ-03 (vacated by Jim Saxton)--seems like about as close to a slam-dunk pickup prospect as the Dems could hope for this year)
NJ-07 (vacated by Mike Ferguson)--Linda Stender came within one point last time and is certainly the favorite to pick it up as an open seat this year
NM-01 (vacated by Heather Wilson)--both parties did well with top-tier recruits, but the growing Dem party advantage gives an undeniable edge to Martin Heinrich
NY-13 (vacated by Vito Fossella)--seems unlikely the weak New York GOP will be able to overcome the Fossella crisis in a year as bad as this one
NY-25 (vacated by James Walsh)--another pickup that should be a freebie for Dem Dan Maffei
NC-08 (Robin Hayes)--I went out on a limb predicting this race for Larry Kissell two years ago and came with a couple hundred votes of being right...this year I will stand by Kissell and project another upset
OH-01 (Steve Chabot)--with a stronger candidate in Steve Driehaus and an expected surge in African-American voting in Cincinnati, I think this could be the year this district goes blue
OH-15 (vacated by Deborah Pryce)--another open seat that seems like a virtual freebie for Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy
VA-11 (vacated by Tom Davis)--northern Virginia's rapid shift to the Dems should make this open seat one of the brightest prospects this year

Lean/Likely Turnovers to GOP
CA-11 (Jerry McNerney)--this one's no sure thing, but this would seem to be the kind of district where McCain is likely to do well, and I expect GOP coattails for challenger Dean Andal
FL-16 (Tim Mahoney)--while Mahoney has a better chance of surviving than I would have predicted a year ago, I still think his one-point margin last time against "Mark Foley" was very telling of how tough this district still is for Dems
GA-08 (Jim Marshall)--fervent anti-Obama majorities in this 70% white district will finally do in the House's most conservative Democrat
KS-02 (Nancy Boyda)--Boyda's victory two years ago was the ultimate fluke, and I highly doubt it can be repeated in a Presidential election year
LA-06 (Don Cazayoux)--the most endangered Democrat of them all, Cazayoux would be in enough trouble in a one-on-one race, but with black Democrat Michael Jackson running as independent, a Cazayoux victory seems like an almost insurmountable hurdle
NH-01 (Carol Shea-Porter)--another fluke victor in 2006's purge of New Hampshire Republicans, I suspect better-than-even odds that Jeb Bradley regains the reins here this year
PA-10 (Chris Carney)--hard to say if Carney would be better positioned to hold this uber-Republican seat if Hillary was the Democratic nominee instead of Obama, but either way this one was gonna be brutally difficult to hold
PA-11 (Paul Kanjorski)--dead man walking....plagued by a minor ethics issue, the GOP swarmed in on Kanjorski like sharks in a feeding frenzy and have foisted celebrity anti-immigrant mayor Lou Barletta against him in a year where Barack Obama's weakness threatens to seriously hurt Democrats in rural PA; expect a blog entry from me in the near future on "losing Scranton"
TX-22 (Nick Lampson)--now more than ever after Hurricane Ike has thrown Galveston into turmoil, accidental Congressman Nick Lampson is probably in DEEP trouble
WI-08 (Steve Kagen)--I just have a bad feeling this one is gonna go to the bad guys

Overall, I only see the Dems gaining three seats based on this calculus. That's definitely less than most, but every generic Congressional ballot survey seems to be moving closer to the direction of traditional party affiliation, so right now I don't think it's unreasonable. Many seem to think the Dems could have another year as good as last year, but with a Presidential election polarizing Americans into their usual partisan allegiances, I'm not optimistic. Even in the best-case scenario, I can see the Dems gaining no better than 10 seats this year.