Final Debate Analysis
This was far the best debate. Schieffer was the best moderator. He asked the best questions and guided the candidates towards the most productive possible dialogue. Obama was his sharpest. McCain was his feistiest. And yet nothing likely changed. In fact, despite a full year of skepticism, Obama may have sealed the deal on this election. I bite my lip strongly with those words as Obama remains a fundamentally flawed candidate with numerous vulnerabilities that could yet unravel him in the next 19 days, particularly in the face of a foreign policy October surprise, but McCain's blunders in August and especially September has likely finished him off in the minds of enough voters that there's little he can do at this point to rectify himself.
For me, the key moment in tonight's debate was the Bill Ayers issue. Obama brilliantly dared McCain to "say it to my face" last week, and McCain called him on it tonight, basically falling right into Obama's trap. When Obama breezily dismissed the Ayers affair in a terse 30-second response and effectively rendered the issue irrelevant, McCain essentially AGREED with him by saying "I don't care about some washed-up terrorist...." Well if you don't Senator McCain, why should we?
Beyond that, McCain scored a few points, but overplayed his hand with the "Joe the Plumber" reference and walked himself into a number of snares that Obama effectively took advantage of, including how Palin's agenda for special-needs children would be undercut by McCain's delusional "across-the-board spending freeze". The time to cut spending is in flush times, not the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. McCain said that the last President to raise taxes in a financial crisis was Herbert Hoover.....but McCain neglected to mention that Hoover was also the last President to cut government spending in the midst of a financial crisis.
McCain was once again clobbered among focus groups of independent voters, which have now given Obama and Biden double-digit margins of victory in all four of the debates. Temperament plays such a huge role among nonpartisans in these debates, and McCain's growly, snarling irascibility was, if anything, more abundant tonight than in the previous two bouts. That is McCain's biggest challenge, especially since Obama comes across so cool and collected no matter how many times McCain tries to poke him. McCain has no choice to get tough on Obama, but Obama's inability to be shaken makes McCain look that much more petty when he does. And it didn't help when McCain became visibly weary and less coherent in the final half hour of the debate.
Many in the media, lusting again for a close race, proclaimed McCain the winner, but their enthusiasm was tempered by the fact that they knew the focus group polls would be coming out only minutes later and directly contradicting their pro-McCain bluster. McCain won the first debate. Obama destroyed McCain in the second debate. And Obama won the third debate by rendering all of McCain's attack lines insignificant. It's not completely clear how this will play out in the general election in 19 days, but Obama has the momentum and it's his to lose.
I'll have more detailed thoughts about the horse race over the weekend.
For me, the key moment in tonight's debate was the Bill Ayers issue. Obama brilliantly dared McCain to "say it to my face" last week, and McCain called him on it tonight, basically falling right into Obama's trap. When Obama breezily dismissed the Ayers affair in a terse 30-second response and effectively rendered the issue irrelevant, McCain essentially AGREED with him by saying "I don't care about some washed-up terrorist...." Well if you don't Senator McCain, why should we?
Beyond that, McCain scored a few points, but overplayed his hand with the "Joe the Plumber" reference and walked himself into a number of snares that Obama effectively took advantage of, including how Palin's agenda for special-needs children would be undercut by McCain's delusional "across-the-board spending freeze". The time to cut spending is in flush times, not the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. McCain said that the last President to raise taxes in a financial crisis was Herbert Hoover.....but McCain neglected to mention that Hoover was also the last President to cut government spending in the midst of a financial crisis.
McCain was once again clobbered among focus groups of independent voters, which have now given Obama and Biden double-digit margins of victory in all four of the debates. Temperament plays such a huge role among nonpartisans in these debates, and McCain's growly, snarling irascibility was, if anything, more abundant tonight than in the previous two bouts. That is McCain's biggest challenge, especially since Obama comes across so cool and collected no matter how many times McCain tries to poke him. McCain has no choice to get tough on Obama, but Obama's inability to be shaken makes McCain look that much more petty when he does. And it didn't help when McCain became visibly weary and less coherent in the final half hour of the debate.
Many in the media, lusting again for a close race, proclaimed McCain the winner, but their enthusiasm was tempered by the fact that they knew the focus group polls would be coming out only minutes later and directly contradicting their pro-McCain bluster. McCain won the first debate. Obama destroyed McCain in the second debate. And Obama won the third debate by rendering all of McCain's attack lines insignificant. It's not completely clear how this will play out in the general election in 19 days, but Obama has the momentum and it's his to lose.
I'll have more detailed thoughts about the horse race over the weekend.
posted by Mark at 9:01 PM
2 Comments:
I too was pleased at how Obama handled Ayers. Now I am beginning to agree this race is Obama's to lose, though I am not letting my guard down like I did in '04.
I almost think we would be better off if McCain won this election. Everything is going to be such a mess for the next few years that this will soon be the Democrats problem and they will be blamed for it, possibly setting us up for a very bad 2010. This may be good for Obama since he would have something to run against in 2012 like Clinton did in 1996, but it would be just terrible for the party after all the work we have done to build our party up nationally over the past four years.
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