Thoughts on the First Debate
I thought both guys candidates came across as fairly impressive and found this to be one of the better debates of recent memory. They filibustered a little bit on how they would deal with budget-cutting and priority-setting in the midst of the financial crisis, but that's not surprising since it's almost impossible to know how dire the economic situation will end being. Furthermore, neither is gonna address the elephant in the room when it comes to cutting spending, and that's Social Security and Medicare, both of which are likely to be on the chopping block out of necessity in the near future.
Overall, Obama won the economic part of the debate, but still came up short in making the gut-level connection with blue-collar America that he needed. McCain came across weakest when he constantly tried to frame our budget problems within the context of $18-billion-per-year earmarks, which is deranged and cheapens the entire discussion. Nonetheless, he managed to throw Obama off-message a bit by relentlessly saying that America's financial problems would be solved if we simply did away with earmarks. Obama never took the opportunity to really deliver home the message that he felt voters' pain on the economy, which probably means the retired steelworker from Steubenville still leans McCain.
I don't agree with McCain on foreign policy points, but he won that part of the debate hands-down. Obama never came up with a serious reply about his being wrong on the success of the surge. He had it on the tip of his tongue (that the military success is worthless without political progress), but for whatever reason didn't go there. Overall, McCain seemed like the wise man discussing these issues without seeming particularly "old", and was clearly getting under Obama's skin. Most of Obama's answers were coherent and intelligent but he definitely seemed like the precocious student arguing with the professor through most of the foreign policy exchange.
Both candidates had effective moments, but Obama had the most lost opportunities by my yardstick. On points, I would say McCain narrowly won (when your opponent says "I agree with you...." eight times in a debate, you gotta figure you will be viewed as victorious), but not by enough to where it'll likely change things much. Furthermore, McCain's strongest points in the debate came in the areas furthest removed from public consciousness right now.
And that leads me to the most important aspect of the debate....the intangibles. Most viewers probably glazed over much of the inside baseball that by and large dominated the second half of the debate, meaning the small ball likely loomed large as it usually does in these debates. On that front, McCain seemed like an ass. He refused to even make eye contact with Obama for an hour and a half, and maintained a snarky and condescending tone almost the entire debate. That's McCain's modus operandi and always has been. He simply does not respect most of his political opponents and refuses to acknowledge that they're worthy to share the stage with him. That clearly conflicts with his "bring the country together" campaign theme, and I could see some voters being turned off by that just like they were when Gore sighed his way through the first debate with Bush in 2000.
Nonetheless, McCain likely redeemed himself after a disastrous couple of weeks. Throw conventional wisdom out. The specific nature of this race overwhelmingly favors John McCain, and that would be the case even if the Democrats had a 30-point "generic advantage" heading into this election. That's why I've been so befuddled by McCain's manic and outrageous behavior in the last month, starting with the horrific selection of Sarah Palin as his Vice-President. By simply appearing as a steady-handed elder statesman facing off against this brash and controversial new kid, McCain would win this election by seven points. But he has chosen to operate half-cocked and undermine his advantage (he's not the "scary black Muslim with the kooky pastor and the America-hating terrorist wife"). If McCain behaves the rest of the campaign the way he did tonight, he wins comfortably. If he keeps up with the ridiculous stunts every time his poll numbers start to decline a little, he loses his edge and could, incredibly, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Looking forward to next Thursday's veep debate. If, after doing her best impression of Miss Teen South Carolina all week, Sarah Palin can somehow manage to go toe to toe with Biden, it'll be the greatest comeback since Lazarus.
Overall, Obama won the economic part of the debate, but still came up short in making the gut-level connection with blue-collar America that he needed. McCain came across weakest when he constantly tried to frame our budget problems within the context of $18-billion-per-year earmarks, which is deranged and cheapens the entire discussion. Nonetheless, he managed to throw Obama off-message a bit by relentlessly saying that America's financial problems would be solved if we simply did away with earmarks. Obama never took the opportunity to really deliver home the message that he felt voters' pain on the economy, which probably means the retired steelworker from Steubenville still leans McCain.
I don't agree with McCain on foreign policy points, but he won that part of the debate hands-down. Obama never came up with a serious reply about his being wrong on the success of the surge. He had it on the tip of his tongue (that the military success is worthless without political progress), but for whatever reason didn't go there. Overall, McCain seemed like the wise man discussing these issues without seeming particularly "old", and was clearly getting under Obama's skin. Most of Obama's answers were coherent and intelligent but he definitely seemed like the precocious student arguing with the professor through most of the foreign policy exchange.
Both candidates had effective moments, but Obama had the most lost opportunities by my yardstick. On points, I would say McCain narrowly won (when your opponent says "I agree with you...." eight times in a debate, you gotta figure you will be viewed as victorious), but not by enough to where it'll likely change things much. Furthermore, McCain's strongest points in the debate came in the areas furthest removed from public consciousness right now.
And that leads me to the most important aspect of the debate....the intangibles. Most viewers probably glazed over much of the inside baseball that by and large dominated the second half of the debate, meaning the small ball likely loomed large as it usually does in these debates. On that front, McCain seemed like an ass. He refused to even make eye contact with Obama for an hour and a half, and maintained a snarky and condescending tone almost the entire debate. That's McCain's modus operandi and always has been. He simply does not respect most of his political opponents and refuses to acknowledge that they're worthy to share the stage with him. That clearly conflicts with his "bring the country together" campaign theme, and I could see some voters being turned off by that just like they were when Gore sighed his way through the first debate with Bush in 2000.
Nonetheless, McCain likely redeemed himself after a disastrous couple of weeks. Throw conventional wisdom out. The specific nature of this race overwhelmingly favors John McCain, and that would be the case even if the Democrats had a 30-point "generic advantage" heading into this election. That's why I've been so befuddled by McCain's manic and outrageous behavior in the last month, starting with the horrific selection of Sarah Palin as his Vice-President. By simply appearing as a steady-handed elder statesman facing off against this brash and controversial new kid, McCain would win this election by seven points. But he has chosen to operate half-cocked and undermine his advantage (he's not the "scary black Muslim with the kooky pastor and the America-hating terrorist wife"). If McCain behaves the rest of the campaign the way he did tonight, he wins comfortably. If he keeps up with the ridiculous stunts every time his poll numbers start to decline a little, he loses his edge and could, incredibly, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Looking forward to next Thursday's veep debate. If, after doing her best impression of Miss Teen South Carolina all week, Sarah Palin can somehow manage to go toe to toe with Biden, it'll be the greatest comeback since Lazarus.
posted by Mark at 9:35 PM
4 Comments:
Mark, it seems like the polls in some key battleground states have shifted to Obama in the last few days. He is now leading in Virginia in the average of polls, seems fairly secure in Colorado and seems to be within striking distance in North Carolina and Florida, although Republicans always seem to underpoll in both in Presidential races for some reason. Michigan now seems more secure than ever for Obama.
This leaves Obama ahead in states worth 273 electoral votes. For McCain to win, he is going to have to hold Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida, and pick off one state from Obama. I think that state could be either Colorado or Pennslyvania. What do you think?
I think Obama has reached the pinnacle of his support (a national advantage of about four points) amidst an economic meltdown and McCain behaving like he should be in a padded room instead of the Oval Office. Frankly, I'm not that impressed by Obama's level of success in this context and don't expect the political conditions to remain this lopsided in Obama's favor for the next 39 days.
I'll outline some specific thoughts on the current state of the Electoral College tomorrow, but in general Obama is essentially in the same situation right now as Al Gore and John Kerry were in the home stretch of 2000 and 2004, albeit looking slightly better though largely within the margin of error. The difference is that neither Gore nor Kerry had to deal with sorts of devastating negative connotations that Obama does with so many voters. Granted, the right hated both of the previous Democratic Party Presidential nominees, but race and religion put Obama in an entirely different category of fear and loathing with an entirely different subset of voters than the typical Free Republic types who trashed Gore and Kerry in the past....who still hate Obama.
I continue to stand by my overarching assessment that Obama has a very small chance of winning this election. McCain hasn't brought out the heavy artillery yet (namely the gruesome threesome of Rezko, Ayers, and especially Wright) but be sure that he will. I'm also still expecting an October surprise of some sort related to Obama's past (or Michelle's) that could completely put Obama away. Way back in December of last year, I predicted Obama would have to throw a perfect game to win this election given his vulnerabilities (and I didn't even know about the most serious ones). I still believe that...and I don't believe a perfect game is doable for Obama.
As for your horse race predictions, I'll have a more substantive post tomorrow, for now I'll reinforce my past prediction that Obama's only path to 270 electoral votes remains all of the Kerry states (252) plus Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado (273). The only state beyond that I see as seriously in play is Nevada. Frankly, I don't believe the more optimistic numbers out of Virginia and still believe Ohio is out of reach. Again, more tomorrow on the horse race.
I think Obama is probably in better shape than Kerry was at this time in 2004 and about the same as Gore. I recall Kerry had a consistent lead in states worth 247 EV's with Ohio and Florida pretty much tied.
In 2000, the situation was similar, but Gore had an edge in Florida that seemed to put him over the top, much like Colorado for Obama this year.
Yes, on paper Obama is doing at least as well right now as Gore or Kerry were, but unlike those two, it's a safe bet the "undecided" vote will break decidedly against him based on race and inexperience. That's why his four-point lead following McCain's dire past week doesn't impress me much.
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