Final House Predictions
Last weekend, I made my final predictions for the Presidential race and the open seats in the U.S. Senate. This weekend, I'll unveil my long-winded laundry list of predictions for 87 battleground races in the House of Representatives. I've divided these battleground races into three tiers. In the first tier are the 37 races that are either the most competitive or the most likely to switch parties. In the second tier are the 26 races that I think have some serious potential of being competitive, but ultimately may not turn out to be competitive when people actually show up at the polls. In the third tier are 24 additional races that I'm not expecting to be close, but could potentially be close, or potentially be poised for a partisan switch.
Of course, two years ago, there were a few heavily hyped top-tier races that ended up staying in Republican hands, or in some cases didn't even end up being close, while other races that couldn't even be diplomatically referred to as third-tier races such as NH-01 and KS-02 ended up taken over by Dems. It could very well be that races not on my list would change party hands. Indeed, alot more polling information has come out since I made my previous House predictions last months, and in many cases changed my opinion significantly. A couple of races have been changed dramatically by serious incumbent gaffes. I'll cover them all, starting with the third tier races....
Third Tier--24 races
Alabama, District 3--There's some noise out there that this soft Republican (for Alabama anyway) seat in eastern Alabama could become competitive due to a decent Democratic challenge by nominee Joe Turnham against incumbent Republican Mike Rogers, and that heavy turnout of hypothetically Democrat-leaning college kids in Auburn could be the difference for the Democrat. Suffice it to say I'm extremely skeptical the race will even be within 10 points. Prediction: Rogers--GOP hold
Arizona, District 3--Every election cycle, I get caught off guard by an Arizona Congressional seat that becomes competitive. In 2006, it was AZ-05 where JD Hayworth got upset. This year, it's John Shadegg in suburban Phoenix who faces a spirited challenge from Democrat Bob Lord. I'm not really sure what's going on that is making the very conservative Shadegg vulnerable, or if he even is that vulnerable as I have seen nothing in the way of polling. With at least some coattail effect from native son John McCain at the top of the ticket in this conservative ticket, I'm pretty sure Shadegg will prevail. Prediction: Shadegg--GOP hold
Arizona, District 8--Democrat Gabrielle Giffords wrested this seat from GOP hands two years ago, and even though the Tuscon-area district in Arizona's southeast corner is a swing region with a slight Republican tilt, it does not appear as though Giffords is getting a very serious challenge from Republican Tim Bee. Prediction: Giffords--Dem hold
California, District 26--Demographics are changing fairly quickly in this suburban Los Angeles district, and not to the benefit of conservative GOP incumbent David Dreier. Nonetheless, it doesn't seem likely that Dreier's number will be up this year as Democratic challenger Russ Warner hasn't really found his footing. It's possible Warner could be swept in in a huge pro-Obama tidal wave, but I'm very doubtful. Prediction: Dreier--GOP hold
California, District 46--Wingnutty long-term Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has had an iron-clad grip on this wealthy Orange County district for years, but has his first serious challenge this year from Democrat Debbie Cook. As it stands today, the numerical challenge is almost certainly too steep for Cook, but with more Latinos every day, the tide is ultimately likely to catch up to Rohrabacher and a number of other remaining Republicans in the Los Angeles metro area, even in long-standing conservative bastions of Orange County. Prediction: Rohrabacher--GOP hold.
Connecticut, District 5--This race only barely warrants entry on this list as dragon-slaying Democratic freshman Chris Murphy seems poised to make quick work of GOP challenger David Cappiello in this northwestern Connecticut district. It is the state's least Democratic district, but will nonetheless go blue this year in the Presidential race and Murphy is very likely to overperform Obama. Prediction: Murphy--Dem hold.
Florida, District 18--As happens every two years, Florida polls give Democrats several reasons to be bullish before pulling the rug from under our feet on election day. I expect the same to happen in several of the allegedly competitive House races in Florida this year, and none more than with long-serving Republican incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in her very heavily Cuban district on the south side of Miami. Ros-Lehtinen is getting a pretty good challenge from Democrat Annette Taddeo, but my sense is that the Cuban population "coming home" to the GOP is part of the reason why McCain is insurgent this past week in Florida, and that will certainly help Ros-Lehtinen handily weather the storm. Prediction: Ros-Lehtinen--GOP hold.
Indiana, District 3--Democrats smell blood in the water in Indiana and are extremely bullish about their chances with candidate Michael Montagno taking down long-time GOP incumbent Mark Souder in this very Republican district in northeastern Indiana. The polls have certainly shown Montagno within striking distance and Souder underperformed in 2006 against a lesser-known challenger, but this district is so fiercely Republican that it's hard to imagine a Democrat winning it unless the incumbent had far more baggage than Souder has. Prediction: Souder--GOP hold.
Indiana, District 7--Election cycle after election cycle, the late Democratic Congresswoman Julia Carson underperformed in her blue-leaning central Indianapolis district. Son Andre Carson, who took over the seat after her death last year, has never faced a general election challenge and it's possible that nepotism could work against him, but very unlikely given how strong of a Democratic year 2008 is poised to be in this district. Prediction: Carson--Dem hold.
Kentucky, District 2--This is an open seat previously held by a Republican in a western Kentucky district that has historically leaned Democrat, so one would think Democratic candidate David Boswell would be well-positioned to take it over right? Seems doubtful. This district is Democratic in the same sense that Oklahoma is, clinging to Democratic affiliation even as their preferences in national and state elections have been trending significantly to conservative Republicans. For that reason, I'm inclined to think Republican candidate Brett Guthrie will score a fairly easy win here, particularly on the coattails of John McCain, who will likely win this district by 25 points or more. Prediction: Guthrie--GOP hold.
Kentucky, District 3--A rematch between long-time Republican Congresswoman Anne Northup and the man who unseated her two years ago, Democrat John Yarmuth, in this Louisville-based district. Northup was always hard to take to out in this Democrat-leaning district, but polls I've seen suggest the district has moved considerably further to the left at all levels in recent years. Yarmuth enjoys a double-digit lead in every poll I've seen, and I expect it to stick. Prediction: Yarmuth--Dem hold.
Louisiana, District 7--In the bayou country of southwestern Louisiana, the Democrats have a compelling and affable candidate with African-American state legislator Donald Cravins, but race looms large in Louisiana as does incumbency, and Cravins is on the wrong side of both versus Republican Charles Boustany. Prediction: Boustany--GOP hold.
Minnesota, District 1--Freshman Democrat Tim Walz appears to have left a positive impression in my home district. In 2006, he swept into office in a historically GOP-leaning southern Minnesota district that has become a true swing area in recent years. This year, Walz faces a fairly soft challenge from uninspiring Republican Brian Davis and seems poised to win a second term easily. Prediction: Walz--Dem hold.
Mississippi, District 1--Amazing as it to believe, Democrat Travis Childers, fresh off an eight-point special election victory in a very conservative northern Missisisippi district this spring, stands poised to win even more handily in his second challenge against Memphis-area yuppie Greg Davis. Really speaks volumes about the importance of candidate selection. It would have seemed inconceivable at any point in the last 15 years that even a hard-core Blue Dog like Childers could prevail in a district like this. Prediction: Childers--Dem hold.
New Jersey, District 5--There are always a few places on the map that Democrats seem to get cocky about, and this race is a classic example. There are really only two solidly Republican districts in New Jersey, and this largely rural district in the state's far north and northwestern corner, held by Republican Scott Garrett, is one of them. The Dems are making a buzz with, Dennis Shulman, a candidate who is a blind rabbi. Shulman is within striking distance in the polls, but still seems an extreme longshot in this district. Prediction: Garrett--GOP hold.
New York, District 20--In theory, attractive freshman Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand should have a race on her hands in her historically GOP-leaning district in upstate New York, but there's absolutely no evidence at this point that she's vulnerable and I can't even find any information about her opponent, suggesting it's not likely to even be close. Prediction: Gillibrand--Dem hold.
New York, District 24--I can repeat my analysis of NY-20 and only switch the names around and I'll have described this situation in this upstate New York seat, taken over by freshman Democrat Mike Arcuri two years ago, and who seems poised to easily hold the seat again this year. Prediction: Arcuri--Dem hold.
Ohio, District 7--This GOP-leaning district in south-central/southwestern Ohio opened up with a GOP retirement this year, but few expected it to become competitive. Democrat Sharen Neuhardt is reportedly holding her own in a contest with favored GOP candidate Steve Austria in the district, but the partisanship of the district seems likely to ultimately keep the seat in GOP hands. Prediction: Austria--GOP hold.
Ohio, District 18--Two years ago, when the resignation and conviction of Republican Bob Ney opened this seat up, few took Zack Space, the Democratic who took the seat in the 2006 election, very seriously as a long-term contender in the Ohio Congressional delegation. But Space has risen to the challenge and has won pretty good reviews from his conservative-leaning constituency in eastern and southern Ohio. He seems almost certain to get an encore act this year. Prediction: Space--Dem hold.
Pennsylvania, District 6--You gotta respect Republican Jim Gerlach. He's the ultimate survivor among GOP Congressional ranks, winning THREE hotly contested elections by 51-49 margins, the first in 2002. His district in the western suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia has been trending Democratic and is poised to go for Barack Obama quite strongly in this year's Presidential race. It's conceivable Gerlach could get swept away in that tide, but he has his weakest challenger to date in Democrat Bob Riggio, so it doesn't seem likely. Prediction: Gerlach--GOP hold.
Texas, District 10--I don't know much about the state of Texas with the newly drawn maps of 2004, but I believe this district is at least nominally in the Austin area. The Austin presence is certainly what makes this a surprisingly competitive race for Republican incumbent Michael McCaul this year. Polls show Democratic challenger Joe Doherty within striking distance, but I'm inclined to think McCaul pulls it out fairly comfortably as seems to be the case more often than not in "close" races in Texas. Prediction: McCaul--GOP hold.
Virginia, District 5--There has been some level of scandal swirling around Republican incumbent Virgil Goode and that was also the case in 2006, even though Goode still managed to win that race easily. Two years later, Democrat Tom Perriello is looked upon as putting up a stronger challenge against Goode, and even though this largely rural district in west-central Virginia leans comfortably Republican, it's possible that a huge student turnout for Obama in the college town of Charlottesville could have coattails that carry Perriello across the finish line. Seems pretty unlikely though. Prediction: Goode--GOP hold.
Virginia, District 10--Another district that is looked at as potentially competitive mostly because of potential Obama coattails, this suburban/exurban region in northern Virginia should go for Obama in the Presidential race, but I'm not confident the Obama tidal wave with take out Republican incumbent Frank Wolf and replace him with Democrat Judy Feder. Not unheard of, but I'm betting against it and polling information suggests Wolf is comfortably ahead. Prediction: Wolf--GOP hold.
So I'm not expecting any serious upsets in the third-tier races, but if recent history is any indication, I'm probably wrong about at least one of these contests. Now onto the second-tier races.....
Second Tier--26 races
Alabama, District 2--The Democrats scored a recruiting coup in the selection of popular Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright to run on their ticket to fill the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Terry Everett is this overwhelmingly Republican district in southeastern Alabama. Bright, who says he voted for Mike Huckabee in this year's primary, is very conservative and would seem to be an awkward fit for the Democratic Party, but he's the party's only chance in this right-wing district. Polls show it close, but even the popular Bright trails Republican challenger Jay Love, almost assuredly because of the scarlet letter (D) next to Bright's name. It's a serious longshot for Bright to win and will be possible only if Obama inspires far-higher-than-usual turnout among blacks in the district. Prediction: Love--GOP hold
Arizona, District 5--In 2006, Democratic Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell upset conservative Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth in this Republican-leaning district in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix. Mitchell is a Democrat who will be vulnerable more election cycles than not given the GOP tilt of his district, but it seems unlikely right now that 2008 will be the year, or that Republican challenger David Schweikert, has what it takes to upset Mitchell. Prediction: Mitchell-Dem hold.
California, District 50--We've seen this movie before, but the polls once again indicate that Republican Brian Bilbray is in another close race in his conservative San Diego County district, this time against Democratic challenger Nick Leibham. This race didn't swing to the Democrats in the 2006 special election when it was probably more likely to have swung, but Bilbray has not been seriously tested in a high-turnout general election, which could potentially change the game for him in this increasingly Latino district. Still, my money's on Bilbray. Prediction: Bilbray--GOP hold.
Florida, District 8--I don't know much in the way of specifics of this Orlando-area district, other than it's not nearly as conservative as it used to be. Republican incumbent Ric Keller was mentioned in some circles as vulnerable two years ago, but is appearing on even more endangered incumbent lists this year. Democratic challenger Alan Grayson is doing fairly well in polls, but we all know Democrats do far better in pre-election polls in Florida than on election day. I suspect the same will occur this year, benefitting Keller. Prediction: Keller--GOP hold.
Florida, District 13--This Sarasota-area district in southwestern Florida was an open seat in 2006 and one of the closest in the country, with Republican Vern Buchanan narrowly prevailing over favored Democrat Christine Jennings, with possible ballot box snafus costing Jennings the election. Jennings is staging a rematch but indications are not optimistic for her encore act finding as much support as her first. There's a significant GOP lean to the district, so I was surprised to see how competitive it was in 2006, but I see little evidence to believe the district's constituents have any desire to toss out Buchanan. Prediction: Buchanan--GOP hold.
Florida, District 21--All three of the heavily Cuban districts in south Florida are nominally battleground races this year thanks to aggressive recruiting efforts by Democrats. In this case, Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez was selected by the Dems to take on long-time GOP incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart. Polling has been closer than I expected, but with Florida solidifying for McCain in the past week, it seems less likely that Diaz-Balart will lose his seat. Prediction: L. Diaz-Balart--GOP hold.
Florida, District 25--I don't know if he's Lincoln's brother or cousin, but Republican Mario Diaz-Balart is also in a battleground race, pitted against Democrat Joe Garcia. While this Homestead-centric WAY South Florida district is less Republican than Lincoln's district, it still leans GOP and Mario seems to be at least as well positioned to hang on than is Lincoln. Prediction: M. Diaz-Balart--GOP hold.
Idaho, District 1--There are a handful of Republican Congresscritters who are perennially vulnerable even in their safe GOP districts, simply because they are deemed too outrageously out of the mainstream even for their hard-right constituents. At or near the top of that list is Idaho freshman Bill Sali, seeking a second-term and having been a lightning rod for controversy before and after being elected for his first term. The most recent public poll showed Democratic challenger Walt Minnick with a lead, but I'll have to see more polls to buy that premise in Idaho. My bet is that the overwhelming partisan advantage will carry Sali to another relatively safe margin of victory. Prediction: Sali--GOP hold.
Illinois, District 10--This district in the northern suburbs of Chicago is one of the bluest districts in the country represented by a Republican in Congress. Republican incumbent Mark Kirk is a skilled politician who has been able to hang on in past elections, but my growing sense is that pro-Obama tidal wave in the Chicago area will finally prove more than Kirk can handle this time, and will result in the election of Democratic challenger Dan Seals. Prediction: Seals--Dem pickup (Dems +1)
Illinois, District 14--I was taken aback earlier this year when Democrat Bill Foster pulled off a special election victory in Denny Hastert's Congressional seat, a long-time Republican stronghold in the western exurbs of Chicago. The district is still staunchly GOP, but this year will be more Democratic in Illinois than just about anywhere in the country, which in itself limits Republican opportunities to take the district back. Further limiting the GOP is that their nominee is perennial loser Jim Oberweis. Foster's long-term prospects for this district are not likely to be very good, but he should survive 2008 fairly easily. Prediction: Foster--Dem hold.
Indiana, District 9--Kind of amazing that of the three freshman Democrats than unseated GOP incumbents two years ago in Republican-leaning districts, only one is in a battleground race this year, and even the one seems increasingly unlikely to change teams. The only reason Democrat Baron Hill's race makes the list is that he's facing a former Congressman, Republican Mike Sodrel who unseated Hill in 2004 in this southeastern Indiana district before Hill took the seat back two years ago. This is actually the fourth consecutive faceoff between Hill and Sodrel, but is the weakest challenge Sodrel has put forth so far. Hill has significant leads in the public polls and seems poised to have his handiest victory in years. Prediction: Hill--Dem hold.
Iowa, District 4--There has been no public polling in this northern and central Iowa district held by Republican Tom Latham for years. Latham's always won rather modest victories in the past, largely on the strength of name ID and unfunded opponents. This year, Democratic challenger Becky Greenwald is giving him a spirited challenge and Latham must have taken notice given his aggressive advertising efforts to hang on. At first, Greenwald struck me as the 2008 equivalent of MN-01's Tim Walz in a demographically similar district, but she seems to have stalled a bit in recent weeks and I'm not sensing the same momentum that existed last month at this time. This district is likely to go strongly for Obama so there is definite potential for coattails, but my expectation at this point is that Latham hangs on. Prediction: Latham--GOP hold.
Louisiana, District 4--This is an open seat in northwestern Louisiana vacated by Republican Jim McCrery, and even though it's a Republican-leaning district, local Democrats can still be competitive in Louisiana compared to most other Southern states, which means Democrat Paul Carmouche has a modest chance of victory. As I understand it, Louisiana's unique election-as-primary format means Carmouche will have multiple GOP opponents in November and needs 50% outright to avoid a runoff. It strikes me that a runoff would really hurt Carmouche's chances a month after unpopular (at least in rural Louisiana) Barack Obama is elected President. Prediction: GOP hold.
Maryland, District 1--This is one of the nation's most interesting open seat races in a strongly Republican district in the rural Eastern Shore of Maryland. Incumbent Republican Wayne Gilchrest, perhaps the most liberal Republican in Congress, was beaten in this year's primary by a "real Republican" named Andy Harris. Gilchrest has since endorsed Democrat Frank Kratovil to succeed him. Gilchrest is still popular in some circles, and his centrist fans combined with Democrats has created a scenario where Kratovil COULD win. I expect it to be close, but this district is so Republican that I have to give a narrow advantage to Republican Harris. Prediction: Harris--GOP hold.
Michigan, District 7--This southern Michigan district, which leans narrowly Republican, has seen plenty of turmoil in recent election cycles due to a schism in Republican circles that helped conservative Tim Walberg beat incumbent Republican moderate Joe Schwarz in the primary in 2006. Walberg went on to beat a weak Democratic opponent that year, but is generally considered too conservative for his district. This year, he faces a tougher challenge from Democrat Mark Schauer and polling has been all over the place. Interestingly, a leaked memo from the NRCC suggests they think the Democrats have the edge here. I disagreed last month but with McCain having skipped out on Michigan and took his campaign GOTV operation with him, I'm now leaning towards a Schauer upset. Prediction: Schauer--Dem takeover (Dems +2)
Michigan, District 9--It would have been inconceivable even 10 years ago that a Democratic Congressional candidate could ever find as much as a toehold in Oakland County, formerly the Republican stronghold of metropolitan Detroit. But times have changed, and decidedly not to the benefit of Republicans. Incumbent GOPer Joe Knollenberg only narrowly held onto his seat two years ago, and faces a much stronger Democratic challenge this year from Gary Peters. Combine the devastating economic situation of Michigan and the McCain campaign's retreat from the state and I've changed my mind on this district, now giving a narrow edge to an upset by Peters. Prediction: Peters--Dem takeover (Dems +3)
Missouri, District 6--Here's a race that seemed like a top prospect for a Democratic takeover a few months ago when the Dems nominated Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes to take on Republican incumbent Sam Graves. But the increasingly Republican tilt to this district now makes it seem as though Graves should easily hang on. While Barnes may have been a strong candidate in Kansas City, only a small part of this district is made up of a portion of the city, and the rest of the district is mostly rural, and probably not very receptive to the Kansas City influence Barnes brings. Graves should win easily. Prediction: Graves--GOP hold.
Missouri, District 9--Just to east of District 6 is another Republican-leaning district, this one in the state's northeastern quadrant, that is also very rural and increasingly less favorable for Democrats. With that said, it's an open seat with the retirement of Republican Kenny Hulshof and Democrat Judy Baker only narrowly trails Republican candidate Blaine Luetkemeyer in the polls. While Luetkmeyer has an undeniable advantage, the wild card for Baker is the turnout in the college town of Columbia, where a huge youth vote for Barack Obama could conceivably put Baker on top. My bet is against it, but it's one to watch and should be closer than MO-06 ends up being. Prediction: Luetkemeyer--GOP hold.
Nebraska, District 2--Anecdotal evidence suggests the politics of Omaha are changing, with Barack Obama contesting this district's apportionally delegated electoral vote and with Democrat Jim Esch having come within single digits of Republican incumbent Lee Terry in 2006 despite a fairly small-ball campaign effort. This year, Esch has waged a rematch against Terry with a more organized campaign. Polls are reasonably close, but my suspicion is that Terry hangs on. Prediction: Terry--GOP hold.
Nevada, District 2--This is a vast, rural, and heavily Republican district that consumes every part of Nevada that isn't in metropolitan Las Vegas. Two years ago, it was an open seat and Democrat Jill Derby fell a few points short of victory against Republican Dean Heller. This year is a rematch that promises to be at least as hard-fought. Heller has to be considered the favorite due to the Republican advantage of the district, but it's likely that Obama will overperform traditional Democrats in the Reno area and could really boost the voter turnout in the region, which could work to Derby's advantage. Still, the race certainly leans Heller. Prediction: Heller--GOP hold.
Ohio, District 2--I already discussed Idaho's Bill Sali as a perennially vulnerable Republican in a crimson red district whose controversial persona results in underperforming traditional GOP numbers cycle after cycle. Another example is Jean Schmidt, who hails from this overwhelmingly Republican district in suburban Cincinnati, but has been held to margins of victory of less than four points in both previous runs. This year, however, Schmidt seems to favored against Democratic challenger Victoria Wulsin, who narrowly lost to Schmidt in 2006 and is waging a rematch. Prediction: Schmidt--GOP hold.
Pennsylvania, District 3--From out of nowhere, we have a competitive race on our hands in this largely rural and GOP-leaning district in the northwestern corner of Pennsylvania. Long-time Republican incumbent Phil English has discovered he has a battle on his hands from Democratic challenger Kathy Dahlkemper. Unfortunately, this does not seem like Barack Obama country, and I suspect English will benefit from his weakness at the top of the ticket. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if Dahlkemper pulls it out, but I still lean English. Prediction: English--GOP hold.
Pennsylvania, District 4--Just south of our last district is another district with a slight GOP tilt, based largely in the northern and western suburbs of Pittsburgh. While Republicans have been insurgent in the culturally conservative Pittsburgh area for the last decade, certain localized Democrats still fare quite well, as was the case in the particularly bloody year of 2006 in PA, a year where Democrat Jason Altmire shocked the world and upset Republican incumbent Melissa Hart. Hart is waging a rematch to get her old seat back, but polling indicates she is falling significantly short. Altmire should win despite likely weakness from Obama at the top of the ticket in the district. Prediction: Altmire--Dem hold.
Pennsylvania, District 12--Here's one of the races that has only become competitive in the last couple of weeks due to a huge gaffe by the incumbent, in this case, from long-time Democratic incumbent John Murtha, who called his own constituents "racists" and "rednecks" in explaining why Barack Obama will underperform in his culturally right-wing blue-collar district in southwestern Pennsylvania. Polls show the previously completely-off-the-radar contest has now become close, but the Republicans have a weak challenger who seems unlikely to rise to the occasion and successfully exploit Murtha's mega-gaffe. Furthermore, Johnstown, PA, continues to exist almost exclusively because of the pork Murtha delivers their way due to his Capitol Hill influence. It seems as though it would take more than this to compel these residents to turn out the Murtha ATM machine. Prediction: Murtha--Dem hold.
Texas, District 23--One of the most surprising Congressional upsets last year came in the special election for the rural ranch country of the Rio Grande River Valley in southwestern Texas. Former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez somehow prevailed in a Republican-leaning district, and actually won convincingly. The district's Hispanic population continues to soar and that likely favors Rodriguez not only this election, but for the foreseeable future, particularly in 2008 against white Republican challenger Lyle Larson. Prediction: Rodriguez--Dem hold.
Virginia, District 2--I only narrowly put this on the Tier 2 list instead of Tier 3, primarily because this was a top-tier battleground in 2006 with Republican incumbent Thelma Drake narrowly prevailing against Democrat Phil Kellam. This year's Democratic challenger Glenn Nye is getting less buzz than Kellam, but it could still be conceivably competitive if Barack Obama has significant coattails, as is now suspected as possible in Virginia. However, conservative Virginia Beach is probably not gonna be Obama-coattail country. Prediction: Drake--GOP hold.
So even before we get to the top-tier Congressional races, I have the Democrats gaining three seats. Now let's turn to the top-tier races and see how the real battlegrounds play out....
First Tier--37 races
Alabama, District 5--When veteran Democrat Bud Cramer announced his retirement last year, I was pretty certain his conservative northern Alabama district would be a likely GOP takeover. But the Democrats got a top recruit in popular local legislator Parker Griffith and early indicators are that Griffith has better than even odds of winning this year's open seat against Republican challenger Wayne Parker. It's by no means a done deal though, as Obama is likely to be an anchor at the top of the ticket in this majority-white district, and could have countercoattails for Griffith. I expect it to be very close, but will narrowly give the advantage to Griffith. Prediction: Griffith--Dem hold.
Alaska At-large--Last month, I predicted the coattails of Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin would help re-elect embattled Republican incumbent Don Young. The race has indeed narrowed some, but Young continues to trail Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz. Typically, Alaska breaks heavily for Republicans in the closing days of the campaign (just ask Tony Knowles) which is certainly worth mentioning, but Palin no longer seems as likely to produce the kind of serious coattails downballot in Alaska than I expected a month ago. On the other hand, an acquittal for Senator Ted Stevens could produce some benefit for Young as well. It's still very much a toss-up, but I'm now very narrowly leaning Berkowitz. Prediction: Berkowitz--Dem pickup (Dems +4)
Arizona, District 1--As I said in the opening, a "top-tier" race doesn't necessary mean it's gonna be close. It just means that there's a strong likelihood of a partisan takeover. In the case of this geographically huge district in northern and eastern Arizona, it's all but a done deal that Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick will take over the swing district vacated by Republican Rick Renzi, who retired amidst a criminal scandal. Kirkpatrick's Republican opponent Sydney Hay appears to have virtually no traction. Prediction: Kirkpatrick--Dem pickup (Dems +5)
California, District 4--Another open seat vacated by Republican John Doolittle, the last surviving member of the "Abramoff Four" who eked out a final term in 2006 mostly because of the overwhelming GOP advantage in this northeastern California district bordering Nevada. Charlie Brown, the Democrat who came within three points of beating Doolittle in 2006, is making another run this time, and is being challenged by a carpetbagging southern California Republican named Tom McClintock, one of the last true conservatives standing in California politics. If McClintock was a local, he'd be running away with this race, but Brown's high name ID is keeping him in contention as is McClintock's opportunism in running in this district 400 miles from his home. Nonetheless, it's a massively Republican district and I have to give a narrow edge to McClintock holding the seat for the GOP. Prediction: McClintock--GOP hold.
California, District 11--Democrat Jerry McNerney upset enviro-unfriendly Republican Richard Pombo two years ago in this Republican-leaning central California district east of the Bay Area. McNerney is now seeking a second term in difficult terrain, and I originally projected him toast. It now seems as though he's favored for re-election, however, as Republican challenger Dean Andal has not made much noise and trails in the polls. Prediction: McNerney--Dem hold.
Colorado, District 4--For the last two election cycles, hard-right culture war Republican Marilyn Musgrave has barely held off challenges from Democrats in her eastern Colorado district. The district's growth is coming from the northern exurbs of Denver, which tend to be less conservative than the district's existing terrain and thus make Musgrave's prospects for continued re-election bleaker with every cycle. She only won last time because an independent candidate took approximately 8% of the vote, much of which was probably poised to go for her Democratic opponent. This year, with Obama likely to do fairly well in the growth zone of her district, Musgrave's prospects seem even shallower and I thus predict she's finally met her match in Democratic challenger Betsy Markey. Prediction: Markey--Dem pickup (Dems +6)
Connecticut, District 4--There are two conflicting elements in play this year that complicate the latest nailbiter of a race for Chris Shays, the last surviving New England Republican in the House. At one level, many in his wealthy southwestern Connecticut district said in 2006 that they liked Shays personally, but planned to vote against him because of the need for a change of parties in Congressional leadership. Well, the Democrats now control Congress, which reduces the need for these same voters to turn out Shays in 2008, right? Possibly, but on the other hand, there will be a higher and more Democratic turnout this year, with Barack Obama poised to win big here at the top of the ticket. Particularly if the higher turnout comes from heavily black and overwhelmingly Democratic Bridgeport, Shays could still lose. Democratic challenger Jim Himes is tied in the polls and this race is a tough call, but after surprising everyone in surviving 2006, it's hard to bet against Shays surviving again. Prediction: Shays--GOP hold.
Florida, District 16--Here's another example of a race that is all but over, seeing a seismic reversal of fortune in just the past two weeks due to the revelation of a serious and far-reaching sex scandal for Democratic freshman Tim Mahoney. Mahoney won his seat by default, and barely at that, after the even more egregious scandal that rocked Republican Mark Foley late in the 2006 race and forced Foley's ninth-inning "retirement". The south Florida district has a fairly narrow Republican lean and Mahoney was poised to be re-elected a couple of weeks ago, but is now running more than 20 points behind with it being too late for the Dems to field a replacement candidate. Just as Mahoney won his seat by default two years ago, it now looks as though Republican challenger Tom Rooney will take the seat away from him by default. Considering what a creep Mahoney came off as in the damning audiotapes, it's safe to say the Democrats are better off without this guy. Prediction: Rooney--GOP pickup (Dems +5)
Florida, District 24--I'm not aware of the details, but apparently the weakness of Republican incumbent Tom Feeney is related to his nominal involvement with the Jack Abramoff scandal. Whatever the case, polls show this race over with Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas ahead by more than 20 points in this narrowly GOP-leaning Orlando-area district. It's always smart to take Florida poll numbers showing Democrats leading with a grain of salt, but the margin on this one seems too huge for Feeney to overcome and the GOP Congressional leadership has long ago left him for dead. Prediction: Kosmas--Dem pickup (Dems +6)
Georgia, District 8--Jim Marshall is possibly the most conservative Democrat in the House, but his redrawn central Georgia district is decidedly unhospitable turf for anybody with a (D) next to his name. Early polls showed Marshall leading handily in 2006, but he went on to win by a mere two points after his GOP challenger closed strong in the final week. This year, the Republicans had a strong recruit in Iraq war veteran Rick Goddard, but he has thus far failed to catch fire. I think the race will close tight once again, but I'll nonetheless change my original prediction, go out on a limb and predict Marshall ekes out another win. Prediction: Marshall--Dem hold.
Illinois, District 11--Here's another open seat that seems all but certain to switch partisan affilation. Republican Jerry Weller's retirement paved the way for a strong Democrat recruit in Debbie Halvorson, while the Republicans fielded perennial also-ran Martin Ozinga in this slightly GOP-leaning district in the southern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago. I haven't seen much in the way of public polling, but it's generally accepted that Halvorson's superior campaign and native son Obama's coattails will very likely paint this district blue. Prediction: Halvorson--Dem pickup (Dems +7)
Kansas, District 2--There were two major surprise victories in 2006, and one of them was Democrat Nancy Boyda upsetting Republican incumbent Jim Ryun in this heavily Republican district in eastern Kansas. Boyda has run a good re-election campaign and has done everything she can to hold off a challenge from Republican Lynn Jenkins, but my suspicion is that it probably won't be enough. Prediction: Jenkins--GOP pickup (Dems +6)
Louisiana, District 6--I'm not 100% of the logistics of this race. I would assume that there will be a runoff if nobody gets to 50%. If it's just a three-way race where a plurality is good enough to go to Washington, then Democratic incumbent Don Cazayoux has a modest chance of victory against the dual challenge of Republican Bill Cassidy and black independent Michael Jackson. I'm really surprised that Cazayoux has double-digit poll leads in the three-way race given how close last spring's special election was and the fact that Jackson is hijacking a significant amount of the black vote. Nonetheless, I expect the race to close tight and still only give Cazayoux a narrow edge if this race doesn't go to runoff. It's a very tough call even now, but I'll give a narrow faith-based edge to Cazayoux. Prediction: Cazayoux--Dem hold.
Minnesota, District 3--Popular Republican moderate Jim Ramstad is vacating this suburban district west of Minneapolis, leaving one of the most unpredictable open seats in the country in his wake. The historically Republican district has become true swing territory in recent election cycles and Republican candidate Erik Paulsen is well to the right of successor Ramstad. That leaves the opening for the unusual candidacy of Ashwin Madia, a moderate young Democrat who is a veteran of the Iraq war and of Middle Eastern heritage. Had the Democrats gone with favored legislative moderate Terri Bonoff in the primary, they'd likely own this seat, but still have at least a 50-50 shot with Madia, particularly in this Democratic year. With a likely Obama advantage in the West Metro, I'm narrowly betting on a Madia victory, which is backed up by the polls I've seen. Prediction: Madia--Dem pickup. (Dems +7)
Minnesota, District 6--Two weeks ago, this race would have a second-tier contest at best, but wingnut Republican freshman Michele Bachmann managed to make the race close with her characteristically intemperate comments about the "anti-Americanism of her political opponents" who need to be investigated Joseph McCarthy style. The race changed overnight, with her unfortunately named Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg getting an 11th-hour infusion of campaign cash and Bachmann with her back against the wall defending her comments. Two new polls were released showing Bachmann now trailing, but still within the margin of error. Had Tinklenberg pulled out 10 points ahead, I'd declare this race over, but this is a pretty strong Republican district in the northern suburbs and exurbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Bachmann has 10 more days for this story to die down, not to mention an Independent Party challenger and a GOP write-in candidate that both stand poised to take away would-be protest votes for Tinklenberg. It's by every measure a volatile battleground race, but I'm leaning towards Bachmann holding on to embarrass Minnesotans some more. Prediction: Bachmann--GOP hold.
Nevada, District 3--In 2006, Republican incumbent Jon Porter came within one point of losing his suburban Las Vegas district to a second-tier Democratic challenger. This year, he faces a stiffer challenger from recent Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dina Titus. This is a very unpredictable district given its blistering population growth, but I'm inclined to think that Porter's number might be up this year. Prediction: Titus--Dem pickup (Dems +8)
New Hampshire, District 1--Nancy Boyda was one of the two epic surprise victories on election night 2006....and decidedly left-of-center New Hampshire Democrat Carol Shea-Porter was the other, upsetting Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley in the more conservative half of the state. Bradley's game for a rematch in 2008 and it's shaping up to a pretty tight race. Polls show Shea-Porter with a narrow lead, but Republicans generally close strong in New Hampshire (with 2006 being the obvious exception to that trend) and I sense that Bradley will ultimately overtake her in the home stretch. Prediction: Bradley--GOP pickup (Dems +7)
New Jersey, District 3--The districts in New Jersey seem to be drawn to be competitive, as is the case with this southern New Jersey district, largely centered in the eastern suburbs of Philadelphia, now open due to the retirement of Republican Jim Saxton. The Democrats would seem to be heavily favored on a year like this in a district that's trending their way, but is so often the case in New Jersey, polling has been ambiguous in the contest between Democrat John Adler and Republican Chris Myers. Adler narrowly leads and if New Jersey tradition holds, he should pull it out in the end, but it's by no means a slam-dunk at this stage. Prediction: Adler--Dem pickup (Dems +8)
New Jersey, District 7--After surviving his 2006 re-election campaign by merely one point, Republican Mike Ferguson decided to throw in the towel in his narrowly GOP-leaning swing district in the exurbs of north-central New Jersey. Democrat Linda Stender, who came so close two years ago, is running again for the open seat and seems to be the slight favorite against Republican challenger Leonard Lance. Too soon to take this one for granted, but seems more likely than not to turn blue. Prediction: Stender--Dem pickup (Dems +9)
New Mexico, District 1--Another surprise survivor of the 2006 midterms was Republican Heather Wilson, who was expected to be taken down but held on by the skin of her teeth. Seeing the writing on the wall in her Democratic-leaning and increasingly Latino-heavy Albuquerque district, Wilson tossed in her badge this year, leaving an open seat in her wake. Democrat Martin Heinrich was and still is a favorite to turn the seat blue, but the GOP got a top-tier challenger in Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. White could overperform expectations, but all anecdotal evidence points to a very Democratic year in New Mexico and it's hard to see Heinrich losing with that much wind at his back in an already blue-tinged district. Prediction: Heinrich--Dem pickup (Dems +10)
New Mexico, District 2--With Republican Steve Pearce making a kamikaze U.S. Senate run, his vast southern New Mexico Congressional seat is now open and surprisingly competitive for such a strong Republican area. Public polls have actually shown a lead for Democrat Harry Teague over Republican Ed Tinsley, but I remain skeptical this will play out that way on election night. As already stated, Republicans are poised to get battered bloody this year in New Mexico, but I still have doubts as to Teague's ability to win over the uber-conservative ranchers of southern New Mexico. Prediction: Tinsley--GOP hold.
New York, District 13--If there's any open seat in the country that seems certain to switch parties, it's this swing district in Staten Island and southwestern Brooklyn, the only district in New York City currently held by a Republican. The Republican who holds that seat is Vito Fossella, whose 2008 was a trainwreck of DUIs and sex scandals that led to his expected resignation. Democrats all lined up behind Michael McMahon in their quest to take the seat over, while a bloody three-way Republican primary left standing Robert Straniere, a nominee so disliked that even many high-profile area Republicans have endorsed McMahon. I'll take the word of the Congressional insiders that this race is a slam-dunk for McMahon. Prediction: McMahon--Dem pickup (+11 Dems)
New York, District 25--Another district that seems like a sure thing for Democrats to take over. Republican James Walsh is, or rather was, one of the last remaining Republicans in Congress representing a district won by John Kerry four years ago. After a close call from Democrat Dan Maffei in 2006, Walsh decided to get out on his own terms. This year, Maffei is running for the open seat and is heavily favored over Republican Dale Sweetland is the Syracuse-centered district in upstate New York. It's hard to imagine the district remaining in GOP hands. Prediction: Maffei--Dem pickup (+12 Dems)
New York, District 26--Another open seat in upstate New York, this one vacated by long-term Republican Tom Reynolds, who won by a scant five points in 2006 against a crackpot Democratic challenger. The district, with a population base in the suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, still leans Republican, and after a hotly contested Democratic primary resulted in the nomination of Alice Kryzan rather than more impressive candidate Jon Powers, I'm inclined to believe that the GOP holds this seat with candidate Chris Lee. Prediction: Lee--GOP hold.
New York, District 29--This western New York district is the most Republican district in the state, but even that's not saying much for New York these days. Two years ago, Democrat Eric Massa came close to upsetting Republican incumbent Randy Kuhl, so well that he's waging an equally if not more aggressive encore campaign this year. And polling suggests it's working, so much so that the NRCC's leaked memo expects to lose this one. I'm far from certain, but if anyone deserves to win a seat in Congress, it's Massa based on his hard-charging efforts here. I'm narrowly leaning towards thinking he'll pull it off. Prediction: Massa--Dem pickup (Dems +13)
North Carolina, District 8--In 2006, I was mystified why virtually nobody seemed to agree with me that impressive longshot Democratic candidate Larry Kissell had a decent shot of upsetting Republican incumbent Robin Hayes in this district in south-central North Carolina. As it turned out, my instinct was right as Kissell came within just a few hundred votes of winning the race even without any help from the national party. Kissell took the narrow defeat in stride and has stepped up his effort to unseat Hayes in this year's rematch. Even before Hayes' inflammatory remarks this week, Kissell seemed to have some momentum his way. Now, with Obama poised to vastly overperform traditional Democrats statewide, I'm very much leaning towards Kissell riding those coattails to victory in this nominally GOP-leaning blue-collar district. Prediction: Kissell--Dem pickup (Dems +14)
Ohio, District 1--Even with a district drawn as favorably for a Republican as is possible given that it consumes most of the city of Cincinnati, Republican incumbent Steve Chabot suffered a moderately close call in 2006 even though he was up against a second-tier challenger. This year, Democratic challenger Steve Driehaus is considered a stronger candidate, and with an expected surge in black turnout in Cincinnati this year due to Obama, my bet is that Chabot's time to go has arrived. Prediction: Dreihaus--Dem pickup (Dems +15)
Ohio, District 15--In 2006, I predicted Republican Deborah Pryce was going down to Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy in this Columbus-area district that has been trending Democrat. Pryce hung on by the skin of her teeth, but as was the case with so many Republicans who barely cheated defeat two years ago, Pryce decided it was time to retire. Kilroy chose to run again, and is facing Republican Steve Stivers in a race that is proving to be closer than what one would expect. I'm not sure of Stivers background, but polls are indicating Kilroy's lead is pretty thin. Nonetheless, I'm leaning towards Kilroy pulling this one out. Prediction: Kilroy--Dem pickup (Dems +16)
Ohio, District 16--Veteran Republican Ralph Regula is retiring, leaving an open seat in this Canton-based district in northeastern Ohio. The district leans Republican historically, but surprisingly Democrat John Boccieri has pulled out to a significant lead over Republican challenger Kirk Schuring in available public polling. I'm not sure what the situation is in the district, but the poll margin was strong enough for Boccieri that I have to lean towards him in calling this race. Prediction: Boccieri--Dem pickup (Dems +17)
Oregon, District 5--The retirement of Democrat Darlene Hooley left an open seat in a swing district in the Salem area of Oregon. Luckily for the Democrats, Hooley picked an agreeable year to walk away from her seat given the close partisan parity of the district. Right now, most seem to believe Democrat Kurt Schrader is favored to hold the seat for Dems over Republican Mike Erickson. Prediction: Schrader--Dem hold
Pennsylvania, District 10--Democrat Chris Carney snuck into a very Republican Congressional district in the northeastern corner of Pennsylvania in 2006 due to serious scandals besieging the Republican incumbent. This year, Carney seemed certain to be one of the most vulnerable Democratic freshman in the country. This largely rural district is overwhelmingly Republican district is not gonna be friendly terrain for Obama at the top of the ticket, which would seem to indicate further hardship for Carney, but multiple polls have thus far indicated he has a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Chris Hackett. Ultimately, I think the margin will narrow, but will nonetheless change my call on this race from last month and predict Carney gets re-elected. Prediction: Carney--Dem hold.
Pennsylvania, District 11--It would have seemed impossible back in 2001 when these Congressional districts were being gerrymandered that at the end of the decade, District 10 would be held by a Democrat, while District 11, drawn to centrallize as many of the Democrats in the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre area as possible, would be poised to be served by a Republican. Nonetheless, that scenario seems very likely to happen this year, as embattled Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski has been trailing Republican challenger Lou Barletta in the majority of public polls. Barletta, the mayor of Hazelton, is a rock star for his tough-as-nails approach on illegal immigration in this culturally conservative district, and should put Democrats on notice of the future if they choose to fly too close to the sun on the immigration issue once they become the majority. My guess: Kanjorski is going down. Prediction: Barletta--GOP pickup (Dems +16)
Texas, District 22--Democrat Nick Lampson, gerrymandered out of his southeast Texas seat in 2004 by Tom DeLay, got his revenge by snatching away DeLay's seat two years later. Lampson won the hugely Republican district in exurban Houston mostly because a ballot technicality prevented a replacement nominee for DeLay to be placed on the ballot after the primary. This year, Lampson has to face off against an actual Republican opponent named Pete Olson and faces a very difficult race. Not one bit of public polling has been made available but the relative disengagement of both parties' campaign committees in the district suggests Lampson may be in serious trouble, despite his high marks for constituent service during the Galveston hurricane. Seems unlikely that Lampson will hang on in this brutal district. Prediction: Olson--GOP pickup (Dems +15)
Virginia, District 11--Suburban Northern Virginia has transformed from a Republican-leaning area to a Democratic stronghold faster than any other region in the country this decade. Moderate Republican Tom Davis threw in his badge this year, seeing the writing was on the wall and leaving a very difficult open seat for his party to hold. Democrat Gerry Connolly is a definite frontrunner over Republican challenger Keith Fimian. Prediction: Connolly--Dem pickup (Dems +16)
Washington, District 8--A rematch from 2006 between perennially vulnerable Republican incumbent Dave Reichert and Democratic challenger Darcy Burner, who narrowly lost to Reichert two years ago. Polls are all over the place in this narrowly Democrat-leaning district in the affluent eastern suburbs of Seattle, but my money is on Reichert pulling out another squeaker like he did in both of his previous races. Prediction: Reichert--GOP hold
Wisconsin, District 8--Democrat Steve Kagen won a squeaker in this Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin two years ago. Republican challenger John Gard is vying for a rematch. Ordinarily, the Republican would have a significant advantage in this region of Wisconsin, but this is not a GOP year and Kagen seems to have a decent lead in public polls. Thus, I'll change my previous prediction for this race and call it a hold for Kagen. Prediction: Kagen--Dem hold.
Wyoming At-large--It might be one of the most Republican states/Congressional districts in the country, but for the second election in a row, Wyoming is headed for a photo finish. Democrat Gary Trauner came within 1,000 votes of upsetting controversial GOP incumbent Barbara Cubin in 2006. Cubin is retiring, but Trauner has decided to run again, and is even in most polls against Republican challenger Cynthia Lummis. Wyoming is an overwhelmingly Republican state, but it appears as though even the Presidential race is likely to be much closer than usual this year in Wyoming. I don't think the tide is enough for Trauner to win, but it should be another intriguingly close contest. Prediction: Lummis--GOP hold.
So there you go. I predict the Democrats will net 16 seats this year, decidedly more than the four I predicted last month. If my prediction is right, the Democrats will have 251 seats in the next Congress while Republicans will be reduced to 183. That's a pretty significant advantage for Democrats. Even if the Democrats were to lose 33 seats in 2010, they'll still have a majority in the House if their majority reaches 251 seats.
Of course, two years ago, there were a few heavily hyped top-tier races that ended up staying in Republican hands, or in some cases didn't even end up being close, while other races that couldn't even be diplomatically referred to as third-tier races such as NH-01 and KS-02 ended up taken over by Dems. It could very well be that races not on my list would change party hands. Indeed, alot more polling information has come out since I made my previous House predictions last months, and in many cases changed my opinion significantly. A couple of races have been changed dramatically by serious incumbent gaffes. I'll cover them all, starting with the third tier races....
Third Tier--24 races
Alabama, District 3--There's some noise out there that this soft Republican (for Alabama anyway) seat in eastern Alabama could become competitive due to a decent Democratic challenge by nominee Joe Turnham against incumbent Republican Mike Rogers, and that heavy turnout of hypothetically Democrat-leaning college kids in Auburn could be the difference for the Democrat. Suffice it to say I'm extremely skeptical the race will even be within 10 points. Prediction: Rogers--GOP hold
Arizona, District 3--Every election cycle, I get caught off guard by an Arizona Congressional seat that becomes competitive. In 2006, it was AZ-05 where JD Hayworth got upset. This year, it's John Shadegg in suburban Phoenix who faces a spirited challenge from Democrat Bob Lord. I'm not really sure what's going on that is making the very conservative Shadegg vulnerable, or if he even is that vulnerable as I have seen nothing in the way of polling. With at least some coattail effect from native son John McCain at the top of the ticket in this conservative ticket, I'm pretty sure Shadegg will prevail. Prediction: Shadegg--GOP hold
Arizona, District 8--Democrat Gabrielle Giffords wrested this seat from GOP hands two years ago, and even though the Tuscon-area district in Arizona's southeast corner is a swing region with a slight Republican tilt, it does not appear as though Giffords is getting a very serious challenge from Republican Tim Bee. Prediction: Giffords--Dem hold
California, District 26--Demographics are changing fairly quickly in this suburban Los Angeles district, and not to the benefit of conservative GOP incumbent David Dreier. Nonetheless, it doesn't seem likely that Dreier's number will be up this year as Democratic challenger Russ Warner hasn't really found his footing. It's possible Warner could be swept in in a huge pro-Obama tidal wave, but I'm very doubtful. Prediction: Dreier--GOP hold
California, District 46--Wingnutty long-term Republican incumbent Dana Rohrabacher has had an iron-clad grip on this wealthy Orange County district for years, but has his first serious challenge this year from Democrat Debbie Cook. As it stands today, the numerical challenge is almost certainly too steep for Cook, but with more Latinos every day, the tide is ultimately likely to catch up to Rohrabacher and a number of other remaining Republicans in the Los Angeles metro area, even in long-standing conservative bastions of Orange County. Prediction: Rohrabacher--GOP hold.
Connecticut, District 5--This race only barely warrants entry on this list as dragon-slaying Democratic freshman Chris Murphy seems poised to make quick work of GOP challenger David Cappiello in this northwestern Connecticut district. It is the state's least Democratic district, but will nonetheless go blue this year in the Presidential race and Murphy is very likely to overperform Obama. Prediction: Murphy--Dem hold.
Florida, District 18--As happens every two years, Florida polls give Democrats several reasons to be bullish before pulling the rug from under our feet on election day. I expect the same to happen in several of the allegedly competitive House races in Florida this year, and none more than with long-serving Republican incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in her very heavily Cuban district on the south side of Miami. Ros-Lehtinen is getting a pretty good challenge from Democrat Annette Taddeo, but my sense is that the Cuban population "coming home" to the GOP is part of the reason why McCain is insurgent this past week in Florida, and that will certainly help Ros-Lehtinen handily weather the storm. Prediction: Ros-Lehtinen--GOP hold.
Indiana, District 3--Democrats smell blood in the water in Indiana and are extremely bullish about their chances with candidate Michael Montagno taking down long-time GOP incumbent Mark Souder in this very Republican district in northeastern Indiana. The polls have certainly shown Montagno within striking distance and Souder underperformed in 2006 against a lesser-known challenger, but this district is so fiercely Republican that it's hard to imagine a Democrat winning it unless the incumbent had far more baggage than Souder has. Prediction: Souder--GOP hold.
Indiana, District 7--Election cycle after election cycle, the late Democratic Congresswoman Julia Carson underperformed in her blue-leaning central Indianapolis district. Son Andre Carson, who took over the seat after her death last year, has never faced a general election challenge and it's possible that nepotism could work against him, but very unlikely given how strong of a Democratic year 2008 is poised to be in this district. Prediction: Carson--Dem hold.
Kentucky, District 2--This is an open seat previously held by a Republican in a western Kentucky district that has historically leaned Democrat, so one would think Democratic candidate David Boswell would be well-positioned to take it over right? Seems doubtful. This district is Democratic in the same sense that Oklahoma is, clinging to Democratic affiliation even as their preferences in national and state elections have been trending significantly to conservative Republicans. For that reason, I'm inclined to think Republican candidate Brett Guthrie will score a fairly easy win here, particularly on the coattails of John McCain, who will likely win this district by 25 points or more. Prediction: Guthrie--GOP hold.
Kentucky, District 3--A rematch between long-time Republican Congresswoman Anne Northup and the man who unseated her two years ago, Democrat John Yarmuth, in this Louisville-based district. Northup was always hard to take to out in this Democrat-leaning district, but polls I've seen suggest the district has moved considerably further to the left at all levels in recent years. Yarmuth enjoys a double-digit lead in every poll I've seen, and I expect it to stick. Prediction: Yarmuth--Dem hold.
Louisiana, District 7--In the bayou country of southwestern Louisiana, the Democrats have a compelling and affable candidate with African-American state legislator Donald Cravins, but race looms large in Louisiana as does incumbency, and Cravins is on the wrong side of both versus Republican Charles Boustany. Prediction: Boustany--GOP hold.
Minnesota, District 1--Freshman Democrat Tim Walz appears to have left a positive impression in my home district. In 2006, he swept into office in a historically GOP-leaning southern Minnesota district that has become a true swing area in recent years. This year, Walz faces a fairly soft challenge from uninspiring Republican Brian Davis and seems poised to win a second term easily. Prediction: Walz--Dem hold.
Mississippi, District 1--Amazing as it to believe, Democrat Travis Childers, fresh off an eight-point special election victory in a very conservative northern Missisisippi district this spring, stands poised to win even more handily in his second challenge against Memphis-area yuppie Greg Davis. Really speaks volumes about the importance of candidate selection. It would have seemed inconceivable at any point in the last 15 years that even a hard-core Blue Dog like Childers could prevail in a district like this. Prediction: Childers--Dem hold.
New Jersey, District 5--There are always a few places on the map that Democrats seem to get cocky about, and this race is a classic example. There are really only two solidly Republican districts in New Jersey, and this largely rural district in the state's far north and northwestern corner, held by Republican Scott Garrett, is one of them. The Dems are making a buzz with, Dennis Shulman, a candidate who is a blind rabbi. Shulman is within striking distance in the polls, but still seems an extreme longshot in this district. Prediction: Garrett--GOP hold.
New York, District 20--In theory, attractive freshman Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand should have a race on her hands in her historically GOP-leaning district in upstate New York, but there's absolutely no evidence at this point that she's vulnerable and I can't even find any information about her opponent, suggesting it's not likely to even be close. Prediction: Gillibrand--Dem hold.
New York, District 24--I can repeat my analysis of NY-20 and only switch the names around and I'll have described this situation in this upstate New York seat, taken over by freshman Democrat Mike Arcuri two years ago, and who seems poised to easily hold the seat again this year. Prediction: Arcuri--Dem hold.
Ohio, District 7--This GOP-leaning district in south-central/southwestern Ohio opened up with a GOP retirement this year, but few expected it to become competitive. Democrat Sharen Neuhardt is reportedly holding her own in a contest with favored GOP candidate Steve Austria in the district, but the partisanship of the district seems likely to ultimately keep the seat in GOP hands. Prediction: Austria--GOP hold.
Ohio, District 18--Two years ago, when the resignation and conviction of Republican Bob Ney opened this seat up, few took Zack Space, the Democratic who took the seat in the 2006 election, very seriously as a long-term contender in the Ohio Congressional delegation. But Space has risen to the challenge and has won pretty good reviews from his conservative-leaning constituency in eastern and southern Ohio. He seems almost certain to get an encore act this year. Prediction: Space--Dem hold.
Pennsylvania, District 6--You gotta respect Republican Jim Gerlach. He's the ultimate survivor among GOP Congressional ranks, winning THREE hotly contested elections by 51-49 margins, the first in 2002. His district in the western suburbs and exurbs of Philadelphia has been trending Democratic and is poised to go for Barack Obama quite strongly in this year's Presidential race. It's conceivable Gerlach could get swept away in that tide, but he has his weakest challenger to date in Democrat Bob Riggio, so it doesn't seem likely. Prediction: Gerlach--GOP hold.
Texas, District 10--I don't know much about the state of Texas with the newly drawn maps of 2004, but I believe this district is at least nominally in the Austin area. The Austin presence is certainly what makes this a surprisingly competitive race for Republican incumbent Michael McCaul this year. Polls show Democratic challenger Joe Doherty within striking distance, but I'm inclined to think McCaul pulls it out fairly comfortably as seems to be the case more often than not in "close" races in Texas. Prediction: McCaul--GOP hold.
Virginia, District 5--There has been some level of scandal swirling around Republican incumbent Virgil Goode and that was also the case in 2006, even though Goode still managed to win that race easily. Two years later, Democrat Tom Perriello is looked upon as putting up a stronger challenge against Goode, and even though this largely rural district in west-central Virginia leans comfortably Republican, it's possible that a huge student turnout for Obama in the college town of Charlottesville could have coattails that carry Perriello across the finish line. Seems pretty unlikely though. Prediction: Goode--GOP hold.
Virginia, District 10--Another district that is looked at as potentially competitive mostly because of potential Obama coattails, this suburban/exurban region in northern Virginia should go for Obama in the Presidential race, but I'm not confident the Obama tidal wave with take out Republican incumbent Frank Wolf and replace him with Democrat Judy Feder. Not unheard of, but I'm betting against it and polling information suggests Wolf is comfortably ahead. Prediction: Wolf--GOP hold.
So I'm not expecting any serious upsets in the third-tier races, but if recent history is any indication, I'm probably wrong about at least one of these contests. Now onto the second-tier races.....
Second Tier--26 races
Alabama, District 2--The Democrats scored a recruiting coup in the selection of popular Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright to run on their ticket to fill the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Terry Everett is this overwhelmingly Republican district in southeastern Alabama. Bright, who says he voted for Mike Huckabee in this year's primary, is very conservative and would seem to be an awkward fit for the Democratic Party, but he's the party's only chance in this right-wing district. Polls show it close, but even the popular Bright trails Republican challenger Jay Love, almost assuredly because of the scarlet letter (D) next to Bright's name. It's a serious longshot for Bright to win and will be possible only if Obama inspires far-higher-than-usual turnout among blacks in the district. Prediction: Love--GOP hold
Arizona, District 5--In 2006, Democratic Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell upset conservative Republican incumbent J.D. Hayworth in this Republican-leaning district in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix. Mitchell is a Democrat who will be vulnerable more election cycles than not given the GOP tilt of his district, but it seems unlikely right now that 2008 will be the year, or that Republican challenger David Schweikert, has what it takes to upset Mitchell. Prediction: Mitchell-Dem hold.
California, District 50--We've seen this movie before, but the polls once again indicate that Republican Brian Bilbray is in another close race in his conservative San Diego County district, this time against Democratic challenger Nick Leibham. This race didn't swing to the Democrats in the 2006 special election when it was probably more likely to have swung, but Bilbray has not been seriously tested in a high-turnout general election, which could potentially change the game for him in this increasingly Latino district. Still, my money's on Bilbray. Prediction: Bilbray--GOP hold.
Florida, District 8--I don't know much in the way of specifics of this Orlando-area district, other than it's not nearly as conservative as it used to be. Republican incumbent Ric Keller was mentioned in some circles as vulnerable two years ago, but is appearing on even more endangered incumbent lists this year. Democratic challenger Alan Grayson is doing fairly well in polls, but we all know Democrats do far better in pre-election polls in Florida than on election day. I suspect the same will occur this year, benefitting Keller. Prediction: Keller--GOP hold.
Florida, District 13--This Sarasota-area district in southwestern Florida was an open seat in 2006 and one of the closest in the country, with Republican Vern Buchanan narrowly prevailing over favored Democrat Christine Jennings, with possible ballot box snafus costing Jennings the election. Jennings is staging a rematch but indications are not optimistic for her encore act finding as much support as her first. There's a significant GOP lean to the district, so I was surprised to see how competitive it was in 2006, but I see little evidence to believe the district's constituents have any desire to toss out Buchanan. Prediction: Buchanan--GOP hold.
Florida, District 21--All three of the heavily Cuban districts in south Florida are nominally battleground races this year thanks to aggressive recruiting efforts by Democrats. In this case, Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez was selected by the Dems to take on long-time GOP incumbent Lincoln Diaz-Balart. Polling has been closer than I expected, but with Florida solidifying for McCain in the past week, it seems less likely that Diaz-Balart will lose his seat. Prediction: L. Diaz-Balart--GOP hold.
Florida, District 25--I don't know if he's Lincoln's brother or cousin, but Republican Mario Diaz-Balart is also in a battleground race, pitted against Democrat Joe Garcia. While this Homestead-centric WAY South Florida district is less Republican than Lincoln's district, it still leans GOP and Mario seems to be at least as well positioned to hang on than is Lincoln. Prediction: M. Diaz-Balart--GOP hold.
Idaho, District 1--There are a handful of Republican Congresscritters who are perennially vulnerable even in their safe GOP districts, simply because they are deemed too outrageously out of the mainstream even for their hard-right constituents. At or near the top of that list is Idaho freshman Bill Sali, seeking a second-term and having been a lightning rod for controversy before and after being elected for his first term. The most recent public poll showed Democratic challenger Walt Minnick with a lead, but I'll have to see more polls to buy that premise in Idaho. My bet is that the overwhelming partisan advantage will carry Sali to another relatively safe margin of victory. Prediction: Sali--GOP hold.
Illinois, District 10--This district in the northern suburbs of Chicago is one of the bluest districts in the country represented by a Republican in Congress. Republican incumbent Mark Kirk is a skilled politician who has been able to hang on in past elections, but my growing sense is that pro-Obama tidal wave in the Chicago area will finally prove more than Kirk can handle this time, and will result in the election of Democratic challenger Dan Seals. Prediction: Seals--Dem pickup (Dems +1)
Illinois, District 14--I was taken aback earlier this year when Democrat Bill Foster pulled off a special election victory in Denny Hastert's Congressional seat, a long-time Republican stronghold in the western exurbs of Chicago. The district is still staunchly GOP, but this year will be more Democratic in Illinois than just about anywhere in the country, which in itself limits Republican opportunities to take the district back. Further limiting the GOP is that their nominee is perennial loser Jim Oberweis. Foster's long-term prospects for this district are not likely to be very good, but he should survive 2008 fairly easily. Prediction: Foster--Dem hold.
Indiana, District 9--Kind of amazing that of the three freshman Democrats than unseated GOP incumbents two years ago in Republican-leaning districts, only one is in a battleground race this year, and even the one seems increasingly unlikely to change teams. The only reason Democrat Baron Hill's race makes the list is that he's facing a former Congressman, Republican Mike Sodrel who unseated Hill in 2004 in this southeastern Indiana district before Hill took the seat back two years ago. This is actually the fourth consecutive faceoff between Hill and Sodrel, but is the weakest challenge Sodrel has put forth so far. Hill has significant leads in the public polls and seems poised to have his handiest victory in years. Prediction: Hill--Dem hold.
Iowa, District 4--There has been no public polling in this northern and central Iowa district held by Republican Tom Latham for years. Latham's always won rather modest victories in the past, largely on the strength of name ID and unfunded opponents. This year, Democratic challenger Becky Greenwald is giving him a spirited challenge and Latham must have taken notice given his aggressive advertising efforts to hang on. At first, Greenwald struck me as the 2008 equivalent of MN-01's Tim Walz in a demographically similar district, but she seems to have stalled a bit in recent weeks and I'm not sensing the same momentum that existed last month at this time. This district is likely to go strongly for Obama so there is definite potential for coattails, but my expectation at this point is that Latham hangs on. Prediction: Latham--GOP hold.
Louisiana, District 4--This is an open seat in northwestern Louisiana vacated by Republican Jim McCrery, and even though it's a Republican-leaning district, local Democrats can still be competitive in Louisiana compared to most other Southern states, which means Democrat Paul Carmouche has a modest chance of victory. As I understand it, Louisiana's unique election-as-primary format means Carmouche will have multiple GOP opponents in November and needs 50% outright to avoid a runoff. It strikes me that a runoff would really hurt Carmouche's chances a month after unpopular (at least in rural Louisiana) Barack Obama is elected President. Prediction: GOP hold.
Maryland, District 1--This is one of the nation's most interesting open seat races in a strongly Republican district in the rural Eastern Shore of Maryland. Incumbent Republican Wayne Gilchrest, perhaps the most liberal Republican in Congress, was beaten in this year's primary by a "real Republican" named Andy Harris. Gilchrest has since endorsed Democrat Frank Kratovil to succeed him. Gilchrest is still popular in some circles, and his centrist fans combined with Democrats has created a scenario where Kratovil COULD win. I expect it to be close, but this district is so Republican that I have to give a narrow advantage to Republican Harris. Prediction: Harris--GOP hold.
Michigan, District 7--This southern Michigan district, which leans narrowly Republican, has seen plenty of turmoil in recent election cycles due to a schism in Republican circles that helped conservative Tim Walberg beat incumbent Republican moderate Joe Schwarz in the primary in 2006. Walberg went on to beat a weak Democratic opponent that year, but is generally considered too conservative for his district. This year, he faces a tougher challenge from Democrat Mark Schauer and polling has been all over the place. Interestingly, a leaked memo from the NRCC suggests they think the Democrats have the edge here. I disagreed last month but with McCain having skipped out on Michigan and took his campaign GOTV operation with him, I'm now leaning towards a Schauer upset. Prediction: Schauer--Dem takeover (Dems +2)
Michigan, District 9--It would have been inconceivable even 10 years ago that a Democratic Congressional candidate could ever find as much as a toehold in Oakland County, formerly the Republican stronghold of metropolitan Detroit. But times have changed, and decidedly not to the benefit of Republicans. Incumbent GOPer Joe Knollenberg only narrowly held onto his seat two years ago, and faces a much stronger Democratic challenge this year from Gary Peters. Combine the devastating economic situation of Michigan and the McCain campaign's retreat from the state and I've changed my mind on this district, now giving a narrow edge to an upset by Peters. Prediction: Peters--Dem takeover (Dems +3)
Missouri, District 6--Here's a race that seemed like a top prospect for a Democratic takeover a few months ago when the Dems nominated Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes to take on Republican incumbent Sam Graves. But the increasingly Republican tilt to this district now makes it seem as though Graves should easily hang on. While Barnes may have been a strong candidate in Kansas City, only a small part of this district is made up of a portion of the city, and the rest of the district is mostly rural, and probably not very receptive to the Kansas City influence Barnes brings. Graves should win easily. Prediction: Graves--GOP hold.
Missouri, District 9--Just to east of District 6 is another Republican-leaning district, this one in the state's northeastern quadrant, that is also very rural and increasingly less favorable for Democrats. With that said, it's an open seat with the retirement of Republican Kenny Hulshof and Democrat Judy Baker only narrowly trails Republican candidate Blaine Luetkemeyer in the polls. While Luetkmeyer has an undeniable advantage, the wild card for Baker is the turnout in the college town of Columbia, where a huge youth vote for Barack Obama could conceivably put Baker on top. My bet is against it, but it's one to watch and should be closer than MO-06 ends up being. Prediction: Luetkemeyer--GOP hold.
Nebraska, District 2--Anecdotal evidence suggests the politics of Omaha are changing, with Barack Obama contesting this district's apportionally delegated electoral vote and with Democrat Jim Esch having come within single digits of Republican incumbent Lee Terry in 2006 despite a fairly small-ball campaign effort. This year, Esch has waged a rematch against Terry with a more organized campaign. Polls are reasonably close, but my suspicion is that Terry hangs on. Prediction: Terry--GOP hold.
Nevada, District 2--This is a vast, rural, and heavily Republican district that consumes every part of Nevada that isn't in metropolitan Las Vegas. Two years ago, it was an open seat and Democrat Jill Derby fell a few points short of victory against Republican Dean Heller. This year is a rematch that promises to be at least as hard-fought. Heller has to be considered the favorite due to the Republican advantage of the district, but it's likely that Obama will overperform traditional Democrats in the Reno area and could really boost the voter turnout in the region, which could work to Derby's advantage. Still, the race certainly leans Heller. Prediction: Heller--GOP hold.
Ohio, District 2--I already discussed Idaho's Bill Sali as a perennially vulnerable Republican in a crimson red district whose controversial persona results in underperforming traditional GOP numbers cycle after cycle. Another example is Jean Schmidt, who hails from this overwhelmingly Republican district in suburban Cincinnati, but has been held to margins of victory of less than four points in both previous runs. This year, however, Schmidt seems to favored against Democratic challenger Victoria Wulsin, who narrowly lost to Schmidt in 2006 and is waging a rematch. Prediction: Schmidt--GOP hold.
Pennsylvania, District 3--From out of nowhere, we have a competitive race on our hands in this largely rural and GOP-leaning district in the northwestern corner of Pennsylvania. Long-time Republican incumbent Phil English has discovered he has a battle on his hands from Democratic challenger Kathy Dahlkemper. Unfortunately, this does not seem like Barack Obama country, and I suspect English will benefit from his weakness at the top of the ticket. I wouldn't be surprised at this point if Dahlkemper pulls it out, but I still lean English. Prediction: English--GOP hold.
Pennsylvania, District 4--Just south of our last district is another district with a slight GOP tilt, based largely in the northern and western suburbs of Pittsburgh. While Republicans have been insurgent in the culturally conservative Pittsburgh area for the last decade, certain localized Democrats still fare quite well, as was the case in the particularly bloody year of 2006 in PA, a year where Democrat Jason Altmire shocked the world and upset Republican incumbent Melissa Hart. Hart is waging a rematch to get her old seat back, but polling indicates she is falling significantly short. Altmire should win despite likely weakness from Obama at the top of the ticket in the district. Prediction: Altmire--Dem hold.
Pennsylvania, District 12--Here's one of the races that has only become competitive in the last couple of weeks due to a huge gaffe by the incumbent, in this case, from long-time Democratic incumbent John Murtha, who called his own constituents "racists" and "rednecks" in explaining why Barack Obama will underperform in his culturally right-wing blue-collar district in southwestern Pennsylvania. Polls show the previously completely-off-the-radar contest has now become close, but the Republicans have a weak challenger who seems unlikely to rise to the occasion and successfully exploit Murtha's mega-gaffe. Furthermore, Johnstown, PA, continues to exist almost exclusively because of the pork Murtha delivers their way due to his Capitol Hill influence. It seems as though it would take more than this to compel these residents to turn out the Murtha ATM machine. Prediction: Murtha--Dem hold.
Texas, District 23--One of the most surprising Congressional upsets last year came in the special election for the rural ranch country of the Rio Grande River Valley in southwestern Texas. Former Democratic Congressman Ciro Rodriguez somehow prevailed in a Republican-leaning district, and actually won convincingly. The district's Hispanic population continues to soar and that likely favors Rodriguez not only this election, but for the foreseeable future, particularly in 2008 against white Republican challenger Lyle Larson. Prediction: Rodriguez--Dem hold.
Virginia, District 2--I only narrowly put this on the Tier 2 list instead of Tier 3, primarily because this was a top-tier battleground in 2006 with Republican incumbent Thelma Drake narrowly prevailing against Democrat Phil Kellam. This year's Democratic challenger Glenn Nye is getting less buzz than Kellam, but it could still be conceivably competitive if Barack Obama has significant coattails, as is now suspected as possible in Virginia. However, conservative Virginia Beach is probably not gonna be Obama-coattail country. Prediction: Drake--GOP hold.
So even before we get to the top-tier Congressional races, I have the Democrats gaining three seats. Now let's turn to the top-tier races and see how the real battlegrounds play out....
First Tier--37 races
Alabama, District 5--When veteran Democrat Bud Cramer announced his retirement last year, I was pretty certain his conservative northern Alabama district would be a likely GOP takeover. But the Democrats got a top recruit in popular local legislator Parker Griffith and early indicators are that Griffith has better than even odds of winning this year's open seat against Republican challenger Wayne Parker. It's by no means a done deal though, as Obama is likely to be an anchor at the top of the ticket in this majority-white district, and could have countercoattails for Griffith. I expect it to be very close, but will narrowly give the advantage to Griffith. Prediction: Griffith--Dem hold.
Alaska At-large--Last month, I predicted the coattails of Vice-Presidential nominee Sarah Palin would help re-elect embattled Republican incumbent Don Young. The race has indeed narrowed some, but Young continues to trail Democratic challenger Ethan Berkowitz. Typically, Alaska breaks heavily for Republicans in the closing days of the campaign (just ask Tony Knowles) which is certainly worth mentioning, but Palin no longer seems as likely to produce the kind of serious coattails downballot in Alaska than I expected a month ago. On the other hand, an acquittal for Senator Ted Stevens could produce some benefit for Young as well. It's still very much a toss-up, but I'm now very narrowly leaning Berkowitz. Prediction: Berkowitz--Dem pickup (Dems +4)
Arizona, District 1--As I said in the opening, a "top-tier" race doesn't necessary mean it's gonna be close. It just means that there's a strong likelihood of a partisan takeover. In the case of this geographically huge district in northern and eastern Arizona, it's all but a done deal that Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick will take over the swing district vacated by Republican Rick Renzi, who retired amidst a criminal scandal. Kirkpatrick's Republican opponent Sydney Hay appears to have virtually no traction. Prediction: Kirkpatrick--Dem pickup (Dems +5)
California, District 4--Another open seat vacated by Republican John Doolittle, the last surviving member of the "Abramoff Four" who eked out a final term in 2006 mostly because of the overwhelming GOP advantage in this northeastern California district bordering Nevada. Charlie Brown, the Democrat who came within three points of beating Doolittle in 2006, is making another run this time, and is being challenged by a carpetbagging southern California Republican named Tom McClintock, one of the last true conservatives standing in California politics. If McClintock was a local, he'd be running away with this race, but Brown's high name ID is keeping him in contention as is McClintock's opportunism in running in this district 400 miles from his home. Nonetheless, it's a massively Republican district and I have to give a narrow edge to McClintock holding the seat for the GOP. Prediction: McClintock--GOP hold.
California, District 11--Democrat Jerry McNerney upset enviro-unfriendly Republican Richard Pombo two years ago in this Republican-leaning central California district east of the Bay Area. McNerney is now seeking a second term in difficult terrain, and I originally projected him toast. It now seems as though he's favored for re-election, however, as Republican challenger Dean Andal has not made much noise and trails in the polls. Prediction: McNerney--Dem hold.
Colorado, District 4--For the last two election cycles, hard-right culture war Republican Marilyn Musgrave has barely held off challenges from Democrats in her eastern Colorado district. The district's growth is coming from the northern exurbs of Denver, which tend to be less conservative than the district's existing terrain and thus make Musgrave's prospects for continued re-election bleaker with every cycle. She only won last time because an independent candidate took approximately 8% of the vote, much of which was probably poised to go for her Democratic opponent. This year, with Obama likely to do fairly well in the growth zone of her district, Musgrave's prospects seem even shallower and I thus predict she's finally met her match in Democratic challenger Betsy Markey. Prediction: Markey--Dem pickup (Dems +6)
Connecticut, District 4--There are two conflicting elements in play this year that complicate the latest nailbiter of a race for Chris Shays, the last surviving New England Republican in the House. At one level, many in his wealthy southwestern Connecticut district said in 2006 that they liked Shays personally, but planned to vote against him because of the need for a change of parties in Congressional leadership. Well, the Democrats now control Congress, which reduces the need for these same voters to turn out Shays in 2008, right? Possibly, but on the other hand, there will be a higher and more Democratic turnout this year, with Barack Obama poised to win big here at the top of the ticket. Particularly if the higher turnout comes from heavily black and overwhelmingly Democratic Bridgeport, Shays could still lose. Democratic challenger Jim Himes is tied in the polls and this race is a tough call, but after surprising everyone in surviving 2006, it's hard to bet against Shays surviving again. Prediction: Shays--GOP hold.
Florida, District 16--Here's another example of a race that is all but over, seeing a seismic reversal of fortune in just the past two weeks due to the revelation of a serious and far-reaching sex scandal for Democratic freshman Tim Mahoney. Mahoney won his seat by default, and barely at that, after the even more egregious scandal that rocked Republican Mark Foley late in the 2006 race and forced Foley's ninth-inning "retirement". The south Florida district has a fairly narrow Republican lean and Mahoney was poised to be re-elected a couple of weeks ago, but is now running more than 20 points behind with it being too late for the Dems to field a replacement candidate. Just as Mahoney won his seat by default two years ago, it now looks as though Republican challenger Tom Rooney will take the seat away from him by default. Considering what a creep Mahoney came off as in the damning audiotapes, it's safe to say the Democrats are better off without this guy. Prediction: Rooney--GOP pickup (Dems +5)
Florida, District 24--I'm not aware of the details, but apparently the weakness of Republican incumbent Tom Feeney is related to his nominal involvement with the Jack Abramoff scandal. Whatever the case, polls show this race over with Democratic challenger Suzanne Kosmas ahead by more than 20 points in this narrowly GOP-leaning Orlando-area district. It's always smart to take Florida poll numbers showing Democrats leading with a grain of salt, but the margin on this one seems too huge for Feeney to overcome and the GOP Congressional leadership has long ago left him for dead. Prediction: Kosmas--Dem pickup (Dems +6)
Georgia, District 8--Jim Marshall is possibly the most conservative Democrat in the House, but his redrawn central Georgia district is decidedly unhospitable turf for anybody with a (D) next to his name. Early polls showed Marshall leading handily in 2006, but he went on to win by a mere two points after his GOP challenger closed strong in the final week. This year, the Republicans had a strong recruit in Iraq war veteran Rick Goddard, but he has thus far failed to catch fire. I think the race will close tight once again, but I'll nonetheless change my original prediction, go out on a limb and predict Marshall ekes out another win. Prediction: Marshall--Dem hold.
Illinois, District 11--Here's another open seat that seems all but certain to switch partisan affilation. Republican Jerry Weller's retirement paved the way for a strong Democrat recruit in Debbie Halvorson, while the Republicans fielded perennial also-ran Martin Ozinga in this slightly GOP-leaning district in the southern suburbs and exurbs of Chicago. I haven't seen much in the way of public polling, but it's generally accepted that Halvorson's superior campaign and native son Obama's coattails will very likely paint this district blue. Prediction: Halvorson--Dem pickup (Dems +7)
Kansas, District 2--There were two major surprise victories in 2006, and one of them was Democrat Nancy Boyda upsetting Republican incumbent Jim Ryun in this heavily Republican district in eastern Kansas. Boyda has run a good re-election campaign and has done everything she can to hold off a challenge from Republican Lynn Jenkins, but my suspicion is that it probably won't be enough. Prediction: Jenkins--GOP pickup (Dems +6)
Louisiana, District 6--I'm not 100% of the logistics of this race. I would assume that there will be a runoff if nobody gets to 50%. If it's just a three-way race where a plurality is good enough to go to Washington, then Democratic incumbent Don Cazayoux has a modest chance of victory against the dual challenge of Republican Bill Cassidy and black independent Michael Jackson. I'm really surprised that Cazayoux has double-digit poll leads in the three-way race given how close last spring's special election was and the fact that Jackson is hijacking a significant amount of the black vote. Nonetheless, I expect the race to close tight and still only give Cazayoux a narrow edge if this race doesn't go to runoff. It's a very tough call even now, but I'll give a narrow faith-based edge to Cazayoux. Prediction: Cazayoux--Dem hold.
Minnesota, District 3--Popular Republican moderate Jim Ramstad is vacating this suburban district west of Minneapolis, leaving one of the most unpredictable open seats in the country in his wake. The historically Republican district has become true swing territory in recent election cycles and Republican candidate Erik Paulsen is well to the right of successor Ramstad. That leaves the opening for the unusual candidacy of Ashwin Madia, a moderate young Democrat who is a veteran of the Iraq war and of Middle Eastern heritage. Had the Democrats gone with favored legislative moderate Terri Bonoff in the primary, they'd likely own this seat, but still have at least a 50-50 shot with Madia, particularly in this Democratic year. With a likely Obama advantage in the West Metro, I'm narrowly betting on a Madia victory, which is backed up by the polls I've seen. Prediction: Madia--Dem pickup. (Dems +7)
Minnesota, District 6--Two weeks ago, this race would have a second-tier contest at best, but wingnut Republican freshman Michele Bachmann managed to make the race close with her characteristically intemperate comments about the "anti-Americanism of her political opponents" who need to be investigated Joseph McCarthy style. The race changed overnight, with her unfortunately named Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg getting an 11th-hour infusion of campaign cash and Bachmann with her back against the wall defending her comments. Two new polls were released showing Bachmann now trailing, but still within the margin of error. Had Tinklenberg pulled out 10 points ahead, I'd declare this race over, but this is a pretty strong Republican district in the northern suburbs and exurbs of Minneapolis-St. Paul, and Bachmann has 10 more days for this story to die down, not to mention an Independent Party challenger and a GOP write-in candidate that both stand poised to take away would-be protest votes for Tinklenberg. It's by every measure a volatile battleground race, but I'm leaning towards Bachmann holding on to embarrass Minnesotans some more. Prediction: Bachmann--GOP hold.
Nevada, District 3--In 2006, Republican incumbent Jon Porter came within one point of losing his suburban Las Vegas district to a second-tier Democratic challenger. This year, he faces a stiffer challenger from recent Democratic gubernatorial candidate Dina Titus. This is a very unpredictable district given its blistering population growth, but I'm inclined to think that Porter's number might be up this year. Prediction: Titus--Dem pickup (Dems +8)
New Hampshire, District 1--Nancy Boyda was one of the two epic surprise victories on election night 2006....and decidedly left-of-center New Hampshire Democrat Carol Shea-Porter was the other, upsetting Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley in the more conservative half of the state. Bradley's game for a rematch in 2008 and it's shaping up to a pretty tight race. Polls show Shea-Porter with a narrow lead, but Republicans generally close strong in New Hampshire (with 2006 being the obvious exception to that trend) and I sense that Bradley will ultimately overtake her in the home stretch. Prediction: Bradley--GOP pickup (Dems +7)
New Jersey, District 3--The districts in New Jersey seem to be drawn to be competitive, as is the case with this southern New Jersey district, largely centered in the eastern suburbs of Philadelphia, now open due to the retirement of Republican Jim Saxton. The Democrats would seem to be heavily favored on a year like this in a district that's trending their way, but is so often the case in New Jersey, polling has been ambiguous in the contest between Democrat John Adler and Republican Chris Myers. Adler narrowly leads and if New Jersey tradition holds, he should pull it out in the end, but it's by no means a slam-dunk at this stage. Prediction: Adler--Dem pickup (Dems +8)
New Jersey, District 7--After surviving his 2006 re-election campaign by merely one point, Republican Mike Ferguson decided to throw in the towel in his narrowly GOP-leaning swing district in the exurbs of north-central New Jersey. Democrat Linda Stender, who came so close two years ago, is running again for the open seat and seems to be the slight favorite against Republican challenger Leonard Lance. Too soon to take this one for granted, but seems more likely than not to turn blue. Prediction: Stender--Dem pickup (Dems +9)
New Mexico, District 1--Another surprise survivor of the 2006 midterms was Republican Heather Wilson, who was expected to be taken down but held on by the skin of her teeth. Seeing the writing on the wall in her Democratic-leaning and increasingly Latino-heavy Albuquerque district, Wilson tossed in her badge this year, leaving an open seat in her wake. Democrat Martin Heinrich was and still is a favorite to turn the seat blue, but the GOP got a top-tier challenger in Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. White could overperform expectations, but all anecdotal evidence points to a very Democratic year in New Mexico and it's hard to see Heinrich losing with that much wind at his back in an already blue-tinged district. Prediction: Heinrich--Dem pickup (Dems +10)
New Mexico, District 2--With Republican Steve Pearce making a kamikaze U.S. Senate run, his vast southern New Mexico Congressional seat is now open and surprisingly competitive for such a strong Republican area. Public polls have actually shown a lead for Democrat Harry Teague over Republican Ed Tinsley, but I remain skeptical this will play out that way on election night. As already stated, Republicans are poised to get battered bloody this year in New Mexico, but I still have doubts as to Teague's ability to win over the uber-conservative ranchers of southern New Mexico. Prediction: Tinsley--GOP hold.
New York, District 13--If there's any open seat in the country that seems certain to switch parties, it's this swing district in Staten Island and southwestern Brooklyn, the only district in New York City currently held by a Republican. The Republican who holds that seat is Vito Fossella, whose 2008 was a trainwreck of DUIs and sex scandals that led to his expected resignation. Democrats all lined up behind Michael McMahon in their quest to take the seat over, while a bloody three-way Republican primary left standing Robert Straniere, a nominee so disliked that even many high-profile area Republicans have endorsed McMahon. I'll take the word of the Congressional insiders that this race is a slam-dunk for McMahon. Prediction: McMahon--Dem pickup (+11 Dems)
New York, District 25--Another district that seems like a sure thing for Democrats to take over. Republican James Walsh is, or rather was, one of the last remaining Republicans in Congress representing a district won by John Kerry four years ago. After a close call from Democrat Dan Maffei in 2006, Walsh decided to get out on his own terms. This year, Maffei is running for the open seat and is heavily favored over Republican Dale Sweetland is the Syracuse-centered district in upstate New York. It's hard to imagine the district remaining in GOP hands. Prediction: Maffei--Dem pickup (+12 Dems)
New York, District 26--Another open seat in upstate New York, this one vacated by long-term Republican Tom Reynolds, who won by a scant five points in 2006 against a crackpot Democratic challenger. The district, with a population base in the suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, still leans Republican, and after a hotly contested Democratic primary resulted in the nomination of Alice Kryzan rather than more impressive candidate Jon Powers, I'm inclined to believe that the GOP holds this seat with candidate Chris Lee. Prediction: Lee--GOP hold.
New York, District 29--This western New York district is the most Republican district in the state, but even that's not saying much for New York these days. Two years ago, Democrat Eric Massa came close to upsetting Republican incumbent Randy Kuhl, so well that he's waging an equally if not more aggressive encore campaign this year. And polling suggests it's working, so much so that the NRCC's leaked memo expects to lose this one. I'm far from certain, but if anyone deserves to win a seat in Congress, it's Massa based on his hard-charging efforts here. I'm narrowly leaning towards thinking he'll pull it off. Prediction: Massa--Dem pickup (Dems +13)
North Carolina, District 8--In 2006, I was mystified why virtually nobody seemed to agree with me that impressive longshot Democratic candidate Larry Kissell had a decent shot of upsetting Republican incumbent Robin Hayes in this district in south-central North Carolina. As it turned out, my instinct was right as Kissell came within just a few hundred votes of winning the race even without any help from the national party. Kissell took the narrow defeat in stride and has stepped up his effort to unseat Hayes in this year's rematch. Even before Hayes' inflammatory remarks this week, Kissell seemed to have some momentum his way. Now, with Obama poised to vastly overperform traditional Democrats statewide, I'm very much leaning towards Kissell riding those coattails to victory in this nominally GOP-leaning blue-collar district. Prediction: Kissell--Dem pickup (Dems +14)
Ohio, District 1--Even with a district drawn as favorably for a Republican as is possible given that it consumes most of the city of Cincinnati, Republican incumbent Steve Chabot suffered a moderately close call in 2006 even though he was up against a second-tier challenger. This year, Democratic challenger Steve Driehaus is considered a stronger candidate, and with an expected surge in black turnout in Cincinnati this year due to Obama, my bet is that Chabot's time to go has arrived. Prediction: Dreihaus--Dem pickup (Dems +15)
Ohio, District 15--In 2006, I predicted Republican Deborah Pryce was going down to Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy in this Columbus-area district that has been trending Democrat. Pryce hung on by the skin of her teeth, but as was the case with so many Republicans who barely cheated defeat two years ago, Pryce decided it was time to retire. Kilroy chose to run again, and is facing Republican Steve Stivers in a race that is proving to be closer than what one would expect. I'm not sure of Stivers background, but polls are indicating Kilroy's lead is pretty thin. Nonetheless, I'm leaning towards Kilroy pulling this one out. Prediction: Kilroy--Dem pickup (Dems +16)
Ohio, District 16--Veteran Republican Ralph Regula is retiring, leaving an open seat in this Canton-based district in northeastern Ohio. The district leans Republican historically, but surprisingly Democrat John Boccieri has pulled out to a significant lead over Republican challenger Kirk Schuring in available public polling. I'm not sure what the situation is in the district, but the poll margin was strong enough for Boccieri that I have to lean towards him in calling this race. Prediction: Boccieri--Dem pickup (Dems +17)
Oregon, District 5--The retirement of Democrat Darlene Hooley left an open seat in a swing district in the Salem area of Oregon. Luckily for the Democrats, Hooley picked an agreeable year to walk away from her seat given the close partisan parity of the district. Right now, most seem to believe Democrat Kurt Schrader is favored to hold the seat for Dems over Republican Mike Erickson. Prediction: Schrader--Dem hold
Pennsylvania, District 10--Democrat Chris Carney snuck into a very Republican Congressional district in the northeastern corner of Pennsylvania in 2006 due to serious scandals besieging the Republican incumbent. This year, Carney seemed certain to be one of the most vulnerable Democratic freshman in the country. This largely rural district is overwhelmingly Republican district is not gonna be friendly terrain for Obama at the top of the ticket, which would seem to indicate further hardship for Carney, but multiple polls have thus far indicated he has a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Chris Hackett. Ultimately, I think the margin will narrow, but will nonetheless change my call on this race from last month and predict Carney gets re-elected. Prediction: Carney--Dem hold.
Pennsylvania, District 11--It would have seemed impossible back in 2001 when these Congressional districts were being gerrymandered that at the end of the decade, District 10 would be held by a Democrat, while District 11, drawn to centrallize as many of the Democrats in the Scranton and Wilkes-Barre area as possible, would be poised to be served by a Republican. Nonetheless, that scenario seems very likely to happen this year, as embattled Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski has been trailing Republican challenger Lou Barletta in the majority of public polls. Barletta, the mayor of Hazelton, is a rock star for his tough-as-nails approach on illegal immigration in this culturally conservative district, and should put Democrats on notice of the future if they choose to fly too close to the sun on the immigration issue once they become the majority. My guess: Kanjorski is going down. Prediction: Barletta--GOP pickup (Dems +16)
Texas, District 22--Democrat Nick Lampson, gerrymandered out of his southeast Texas seat in 2004 by Tom DeLay, got his revenge by snatching away DeLay's seat two years later. Lampson won the hugely Republican district in exurban Houston mostly because a ballot technicality prevented a replacement nominee for DeLay to be placed on the ballot after the primary. This year, Lampson has to face off against an actual Republican opponent named Pete Olson and faces a very difficult race. Not one bit of public polling has been made available but the relative disengagement of both parties' campaign committees in the district suggests Lampson may be in serious trouble, despite his high marks for constituent service during the Galveston hurricane. Seems unlikely that Lampson will hang on in this brutal district. Prediction: Olson--GOP pickup (Dems +15)
Virginia, District 11--Suburban Northern Virginia has transformed from a Republican-leaning area to a Democratic stronghold faster than any other region in the country this decade. Moderate Republican Tom Davis threw in his badge this year, seeing the writing was on the wall and leaving a very difficult open seat for his party to hold. Democrat Gerry Connolly is a definite frontrunner over Republican challenger Keith Fimian. Prediction: Connolly--Dem pickup (Dems +16)
Washington, District 8--A rematch from 2006 between perennially vulnerable Republican incumbent Dave Reichert and Democratic challenger Darcy Burner, who narrowly lost to Reichert two years ago. Polls are all over the place in this narrowly Democrat-leaning district in the affluent eastern suburbs of Seattle, but my money is on Reichert pulling out another squeaker like he did in both of his previous races. Prediction: Reichert--GOP hold
Wisconsin, District 8--Democrat Steve Kagen won a squeaker in this Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin two years ago. Republican challenger John Gard is vying for a rematch. Ordinarily, the Republican would have a significant advantage in this region of Wisconsin, but this is not a GOP year and Kagen seems to have a decent lead in public polls. Thus, I'll change my previous prediction for this race and call it a hold for Kagen. Prediction: Kagen--Dem hold.
Wyoming At-large--It might be one of the most Republican states/Congressional districts in the country, but for the second election in a row, Wyoming is headed for a photo finish. Democrat Gary Trauner came within 1,000 votes of upsetting controversial GOP incumbent Barbara Cubin in 2006. Cubin is retiring, but Trauner has decided to run again, and is even in most polls against Republican challenger Cynthia Lummis. Wyoming is an overwhelmingly Republican state, but it appears as though even the Presidential race is likely to be much closer than usual this year in Wyoming. I don't think the tide is enough for Trauner to win, but it should be another intriguingly close contest. Prediction: Lummis--GOP hold.
So there you go. I predict the Democrats will net 16 seats this year, decidedly more than the four I predicted last month. If my prediction is right, the Democrats will have 251 seats in the next Congress while Republicans will be reduced to 183. That's a pretty significant advantage for Democrats. Even if the Democrats were to lose 33 seats in 2010, they'll still have a majority in the House if their majority reaches 251 seats.
posted by Mark at 9:39 AM
8 Comments:
Interesting. Some notes about MN-03 - Madia. Madia will win. He is not of "middle eastern" background....he's the son of Indian parents born in Boston, MA. If Bonoff had been the candidate this seat would have been a GOP hold. She would have been decimated in the debates and forums as a lightweight on federal issues. Madia is a formidable candidate and is keeping Paulsen on the run.
You should take another CLOSER look at OH-2. Independent David Krikorian has made this a VERY TIGHT 3-way reace. All three candidates are polling in the 30's right now and this will come down to less than 1000 votes. David has a legitmate chance to win and he is pulling more and more votes each day from Schmidt.
TX-10 stretches from west and north Austin all the way to the western suburbs of Houston.
Mark, I think your predictions are way too pessemistic. The financial crisis probably stopped any chance Bradley or Jenkins had of knocking off Democratic incumbents and most of the indecided voters in PA-11 are Democrats, meaning there is a good chance these voters come home to Kanjorski at the close.
I think Democrats will pick up FL-08, FL-21, and FL-25. Those districts are trending Democratic and Obama has a HUGE ground game in all of them. CT-04 and WA-08 are both district he will win by double digits and he should pull Himes and Burner along with him. There are other races with large black populations(AL-02, AL-03, NE-02, and VA-02) that I also think Obama should bring along with him. Overall my prediction is a net pickup of 34 for the Dems.
west metro, thanks for the heads-up about Madia's background. I didn't realize his parents were of Indian heritage. I assumed it was the Middle East.
lee, thanks for the heads-up on TX-10. I didn't realize till I read up later that Joe Doherty the Democrat is the former judge from "Texas Justice"
Mr. Phips, I think you are a little too optimistic. I actually think McCain and the GOP will hold their losses by spending the next nine days warning voters of the "dangers" of Democrats controlling everything with large majorities. I'm incredibly skeptical of those south Florida Cuban Republicans being that vulnerable and don't believe the black turnout in the races you cited will be substantial enough to have that kind of Democratic coattail effect. Particularly in Alabama, every new black voter that votes Democrat is likely to be countered by an older white Democrat who switches over to the Republicans.
I might be a little on the conservative side with my prediction of 16 Democratic pickups, but I suspect I'll be closer than you are by predicting 34 gains. I guess we'll find out in nine days.
Just FYI, the Diaz-Balarts in Florida are brothers.
Mark, you have to admit that in many districts that Obama is going to win big in that you have as GOP holds or gains(FL-08, NH-01, PA-11, and CT-04 for example) people voting for Obama are not going to then turn around and vote for a right wing Republican.
Mine is roughly in-between yours, Mr. Phips and Mark. I have the donks gaining a net of 25 seats, flipping 28 R-held seats and losing 3 (FL-16, PA-11, TX-22).
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