Final Senate Predictions
It wasn't long ago I made my early predictions on this year's Senate races, but I'll seal the envelope tonight based upon the most recent trendlines and anecdotal evidence. I'll handicap these races in numerical order based on the races that I think are most likely to flip parties on November 4.
1. Virginia--For almost a year now, it's been a done deal that former Virginia Governor, Democrat Mark Warner, who enjoys almost God-like acclaim in the state he successfully governed between 2002 and 2006, would handily lay waste to the Republican Governor who preceded him, the considerably less popular Jim Gilmore. Nonetheless, it's striking just how far Warner is ahead in this open seat. Prediction: Warner by 22.
2. New Mexico--In the fight for Republican Pete Domenici's seat, it's also striking just how robust of a lead Democratic Congressman Tom Udall has over GOP challenger Steve Pearce, especially considering both are House members serving Congressional districts of the same size. Heather Wilson would have done better statewide had she won the GOP primary, but it still seems unlikely that Udall could have been taken down in a year like this one. Prediction: Udall by 12.
3. Colorado--The low-profile Republican incumbent Wayne Allard would likely have been a good bet for defeat even if he had decided to run for a third-term, but Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (yes, he is relation to the Democrat running in New Mexico) nonetheless got lucky by being able to face off against Bob Schaffer, the obnoxious former Republican Congressman from eastern Colorado, in a Democratic year. Unlike his cousin in New Mexico, Mark Udall hasn't fully put this race to bed, but the NRSC is pulling out of Colorado at this point indicating they've lost hope. Prediction: Udall by 6.
4. Oregon--In my previous analysis, I could see incumbent Republican Gordon Smith was gonna have his hands full in this race, but narrowly gave him the edge against mediocre Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. Any other year, the moderate Smith would have little trouble getting a third term, but 2008 seems likely to be a particularly Democratic year in Oregon, and the polls are clearly moving in Merkley's direction. It's no sure thing, but my money's on Merkley at this point. Prediction: Merkley by 2.
5. New Hampshire--Here's a race that originally looked like it would be as big of a Democratic blowout as Virginia when former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen signed on for a rematch against the 2002 victor and one-term Republican incumbent John Sununu. But her once double-digit lead has been trimmed considerably. In recent elections, close races in New Hampshire have closed in favor of the GOP, but 2006 was most definitely the exception to that rule. Sununu has done a pretty decent job of distancing himself from the GOP brand this campaign and will likely close well. But at least for now, I'm still predicting he comes just short against Shaheen. Prediction: Shaheen by 1.
6. Alaska--There are things scenarios that could unfold in the Alaska Senate race in the next 18 days that will determine the outcome of the contest, and only one of them ends with a victory for Democratic challenger Mark Begich. Scenario 1 is that Republican incumbent Ted Stevens' trial drags on without a verdict until after the election. Scenario 2 is that he's acquitted of criminal charges. And Scenario 3 is that he's convicted of criminal charges. Only a Stevens conviction can get Begich elected at this point, meaning I continue to lean towards Stevens in this contest. Prediction: Stevens by 2.
7. Minnesota--My home state's Senate race is arguably the nation's most unpredictable. I'd be surprised at this point if Independence Party candidate (and former Senator) Dean Barkley can pull off a victory with so little time left in the campaign, but he remains the kingmaker in this race. Barkley is currently polling anywhere from 15-19% in the statewide polls, a target range that seems perfect for Democratic challenger Al Franken. But my hunch is that Republican incumbent Norm Coleman's basement is 40%, meaning that if Barkley sinks to below 15%, those voters likely move to Coleman....and if Barkley rises above 20% it's likely at Franken's expense. I'd be surprised if Barkley stays within that upper-teen target zone where Franken needs him to be. It's possible, but I'm leaning against it. Prediction: Coleman by 3.
8. North Carolina--Yes I know, many are leaving Republican Elizabeth Dole for dead in her bid for a second term as Democratic challenger Kay Hagan actually has a slight lead in recent polls. But lest we forget this is the South, where Republicans almost always close well. I suppose 2008 could be the exception, but I nonetheless expect a Liddy Dole ninth-inning comeback. Prediction: Dole by 3.
9. Mississippi #2--Quasi-incumbent Republican Roger Wicker is in a statistical dead heat with Democratic challenger, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Mississippi is a brutally tough state for a Democrat, but Musgrove has won there before, and he's running a pretty strong campaign up against the bland and low-key Wicker. With an African-American turnout assist from the Obama campaign, Musgrove could have an unusual advantage this year and thus need a smaller percentage of Mississippi's ferociously Republican white vote to win. If Musgrove can get 25% of the white vote, he probably wins the state. Unfortunately, even the 25% threshold for a Democrat in Mississippi is likely out of reach. Prediction: Wicker by 4.
10. Georgia--I'll confess to being amazed that Democratic challenger Jim Martin has fought one-term Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss to a statistical tie in what has become the prototypical "red state" since the turn of the millennium. But if it seems to good to be true it probably is. Given that Obama at the top of the ticket is likely to boost black voter turnout in Georgia, I still suspect the national Democratic bubble of early October is poised to deflate in the remaining two weeks, and no place more than in the South. Chambliss will end up winning by a margin similar to what he defeated Max Cleland with six years ago. Prediction: Chambliss by 6.
11. Louisiana--Even in my predictions a month ago, I still clung to the idea that Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu would win in a nailbiter, simply because of the increasingly difficult demographics of Louisiana and a Presidential nominee likely to spur countercoattails. Now it appears even those fears are likely to prove unfounded as the NRSC is leaving its disappointing GOP challenger John Kennedy for dead in the final weeks of the campaign. It'll still likely be single digits, but Landrieu should nonetheless score her first easy victory in three tries this year. Prediction: Landrieu by 7.
12. Kentucky--I refuse to accept that McConnell is in that serious of trouble in Kentucky, or at least that he will be after three more weeks of GOP demagoguery and the hefty coattails of McCain at the top of the ticket in his state. McConnell seems to have suffered from his key role in passing the unpopular bailout, but as that headlines surrounding that pass, I expect McConnell to once again retake a lead in the closing days of the campaign. Prediction: McConnell by 9.
13. Maine--While it's true that polls have narrowed a little in the Maine Senate race, would-be top tier Democratic challenger, Congressman Tom Allen, still trails two-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins by double digits in Maine. Not sure why Maine is so much less receptive to unloading its Republicans than are its neighbors in the northeast, but they clearly have no interest trading in Collins even in the perfect storm year of 2008. Prediction: Collins by 12.
14. Nebraska--I have not completely given up on the open Senate seat in Nebraska, but I'm getting close. The seat, vacated by maverick Republican Chuck Hagel, seems poised to fall into the lap of popular former Republican Governor Mike Johanns despite the fact that Democrats are running one of the most impressive candidates in recent memory with Scott Kleeb. I keep saying that Kleeb will catch on with enough exposure, especially given how bland Johanns is, but with so little time left, it seems increasingly less likely. Prediction: Johanns by 13.
15. New Jersey--It's always interesting how Democratic candidates that would be very vulnerable elsewhere in the country always manage to find a way to win in New Jersey. Even though geriatric incumbent Frank Lautenberg makes John McCain look like Scott Kleeb, the current political climate makes it likely that the less-than-overwhelmingly-popular Lautenberg will nonetheless win will by double digits over recurring GOP challenger Dick Zimmer. Prediction: Lautenberg by 13.
16. Texas--A recent poll showed one-term Republican incumbent John Cornyn with a soft six-point lead over Democratic challenger Rick Noriega, but I'm not buying it. Cornyn was supposedly tied with 2002 challenger Ron Kirk in the election eve polls before going onto win by 12 points. Prediction: Cornyn by 12.
17. Idaho--Since this is an open seat, I'm giving longshot Democratic candidate Larry LaRocco the benefit of the doubt here that he'll overperform the typical Idaho Democrat. He has been elected in Idaho before and this election is replacing disgraced Republican Larry Craig, which would bode well for the opposition party candidate in most contests....the ones not in Idaho at least. Still, I'm betting Republican Jim Risch soundly defeats him. Prediction: Risch by 16.
18. Oklahoma--Considering how strong of a candidate Democratic challenger Andrew Rice is, considering what a wildly controversial incumbent Republican James Inhofe is, and considering that this is allegedly the most perfect political climate that Democrats can ever hope to run in, I would have thought this race would at least be in single digits. But the neanderthals of Oklahoma simply can't tolerate the idea of having a Senator who isn't a full-blown nutjob ridiculed by the rest of the country. Prediction: Inhofe by 16.
19. South Carolina--Interesting that Democratic challenger Bob Conley is running to the right of Republican Lindsey Graham on many key issues. Only in South Carolina. Doing so could conceivably help Conley overperform traditional Democrats in the state by picking up disaffected Graham voters who find him insufficiently conservative, but by and large I think Graham will still win comfortably. Prediction: Graham by 14.
20. Iowa--While a fifth term for Iowa Senator Tom Harkin is assured given his fourth-rate Republican challenger Christopher Reed, it's still striking that the few polls released for the race still have Harkin poised to score a victory margin of less than a 20 points, even against a guy virtually nobody has ever heard of. It definitely confirms that liberal Harkin has a ceiling of support in Iowa no matter how long his tenure in the state might be. Prediction: Harkin by 19.
21. Wyoming #2--Even though Republican quasi-incumbent John Barrasso is a largely unknown entity who inherited his seat after the death of former Republican Senator Craig Thomas, he's a Republican in Wyoming, and Democratic challenger Nick Carter has not been able to take advantage of Barrasso's limited familiarity with the state. Prediction: Barrasso by 22.
22. South Dakota--I'm still not sure what two-term Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson's opponent's name even is, if that gives you any indication how safe Johnson is in what would otherwise seem to be a vulnerable seat. Prediction: Johnson by 20.
The rest of the races seem like 100% sure things for the incumbents so I won't bother making predictions for them. In total, I'm predicting a net gain of five seats for Democrats, with the obvious caveat that Joe Lieberman seems very likely to start caucusing with Republicans. The Democrats could conceivably score two or three more Senate victories if the stars are all aligned, but if even eight new Senate seats leaves the Dems with only 58 seats, so the filibuster-proof 60-seat majority does not seem particularly plausible. Nonetheless, 55 seats will be an almost impenetrable majority for Democrats to head into the 2010 midterms with, which is a refreshing thought.
1. Virginia--For almost a year now, it's been a done deal that former Virginia Governor, Democrat Mark Warner, who enjoys almost God-like acclaim in the state he successfully governed between 2002 and 2006, would handily lay waste to the Republican Governor who preceded him, the considerably less popular Jim Gilmore. Nonetheless, it's striking just how far Warner is ahead in this open seat. Prediction: Warner by 22.
2. New Mexico--In the fight for Republican Pete Domenici's seat, it's also striking just how robust of a lead Democratic Congressman Tom Udall has over GOP challenger Steve Pearce, especially considering both are House members serving Congressional districts of the same size. Heather Wilson would have done better statewide had she won the GOP primary, but it still seems unlikely that Udall could have been taken down in a year like this one. Prediction: Udall by 12.
3. Colorado--The low-profile Republican incumbent Wayne Allard would likely have been a good bet for defeat even if he had decided to run for a third-term, but Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (yes, he is relation to the Democrat running in New Mexico) nonetheless got lucky by being able to face off against Bob Schaffer, the obnoxious former Republican Congressman from eastern Colorado, in a Democratic year. Unlike his cousin in New Mexico, Mark Udall hasn't fully put this race to bed, but the NRSC is pulling out of Colorado at this point indicating they've lost hope. Prediction: Udall by 6.
4. Oregon--In my previous analysis, I could see incumbent Republican Gordon Smith was gonna have his hands full in this race, but narrowly gave him the edge against mediocre Democratic challenger Jeff Merkley. Any other year, the moderate Smith would have little trouble getting a third term, but 2008 seems likely to be a particularly Democratic year in Oregon, and the polls are clearly moving in Merkley's direction. It's no sure thing, but my money's on Merkley at this point. Prediction: Merkley by 2.
5. New Hampshire--Here's a race that originally looked like it would be as big of a Democratic blowout as Virginia when former Democratic Governor Jeanne Shaheen signed on for a rematch against the 2002 victor and one-term Republican incumbent John Sununu. But her once double-digit lead has been trimmed considerably. In recent elections, close races in New Hampshire have closed in favor of the GOP, but 2006 was most definitely the exception to that rule. Sununu has done a pretty decent job of distancing himself from the GOP brand this campaign and will likely close well. But at least for now, I'm still predicting he comes just short against Shaheen. Prediction: Shaheen by 1.
6. Alaska--There are things scenarios that could unfold in the Alaska Senate race in the next 18 days that will determine the outcome of the contest, and only one of them ends with a victory for Democratic challenger Mark Begich. Scenario 1 is that Republican incumbent Ted Stevens' trial drags on without a verdict until after the election. Scenario 2 is that he's acquitted of criminal charges. And Scenario 3 is that he's convicted of criminal charges. Only a Stevens conviction can get Begich elected at this point, meaning I continue to lean towards Stevens in this contest. Prediction: Stevens by 2.
7. Minnesota--My home state's Senate race is arguably the nation's most unpredictable. I'd be surprised at this point if Independence Party candidate (and former Senator) Dean Barkley can pull off a victory with so little time left in the campaign, but he remains the kingmaker in this race. Barkley is currently polling anywhere from 15-19% in the statewide polls, a target range that seems perfect for Democratic challenger Al Franken. But my hunch is that Republican incumbent Norm Coleman's basement is 40%, meaning that if Barkley sinks to below 15%, those voters likely move to Coleman....and if Barkley rises above 20% it's likely at Franken's expense. I'd be surprised if Barkley stays within that upper-teen target zone where Franken needs him to be. It's possible, but I'm leaning against it. Prediction: Coleman by 3.
8. North Carolina--Yes I know, many are leaving Republican Elizabeth Dole for dead in her bid for a second term as Democratic challenger Kay Hagan actually has a slight lead in recent polls. But lest we forget this is the South, where Republicans almost always close well. I suppose 2008 could be the exception, but I nonetheless expect a Liddy Dole ninth-inning comeback. Prediction: Dole by 3.
9. Mississippi #2--Quasi-incumbent Republican Roger Wicker is in a statistical dead heat with Democratic challenger, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Mississippi is a brutally tough state for a Democrat, but Musgrove has won there before, and he's running a pretty strong campaign up against the bland and low-key Wicker. With an African-American turnout assist from the Obama campaign, Musgrove could have an unusual advantage this year and thus need a smaller percentage of Mississippi's ferociously Republican white vote to win. If Musgrove can get 25% of the white vote, he probably wins the state. Unfortunately, even the 25% threshold for a Democrat in Mississippi is likely out of reach. Prediction: Wicker by 4.
10. Georgia--I'll confess to being amazed that Democratic challenger Jim Martin has fought one-term Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss to a statistical tie in what has become the prototypical "red state" since the turn of the millennium. But if it seems to good to be true it probably is. Given that Obama at the top of the ticket is likely to boost black voter turnout in Georgia, I still suspect the national Democratic bubble of early October is poised to deflate in the remaining two weeks, and no place more than in the South. Chambliss will end up winning by a margin similar to what he defeated Max Cleland with six years ago. Prediction: Chambliss by 6.
11. Louisiana--Even in my predictions a month ago, I still clung to the idea that Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu would win in a nailbiter, simply because of the increasingly difficult demographics of Louisiana and a Presidential nominee likely to spur countercoattails. Now it appears even those fears are likely to prove unfounded as the NRSC is leaving its disappointing GOP challenger John Kennedy for dead in the final weeks of the campaign. It'll still likely be single digits, but Landrieu should nonetheless score her first easy victory in three tries this year. Prediction: Landrieu by 7.
12. Kentucky--I refuse to accept that McConnell is in that serious of trouble in Kentucky, or at least that he will be after three more weeks of GOP demagoguery and the hefty coattails of McCain at the top of the ticket in his state. McConnell seems to have suffered from his key role in passing the unpopular bailout, but as that headlines surrounding that pass, I expect McConnell to once again retake a lead in the closing days of the campaign. Prediction: McConnell by 9.
13. Maine--While it's true that polls have narrowed a little in the Maine Senate race, would-be top tier Democratic challenger, Congressman Tom Allen, still trails two-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins by double digits in Maine. Not sure why Maine is so much less receptive to unloading its Republicans than are its neighbors in the northeast, but they clearly have no interest trading in Collins even in the perfect storm year of 2008. Prediction: Collins by 12.
14. Nebraska--I have not completely given up on the open Senate seat in Nebraska, but I'm getting close. The seat, vacated by maverick Republican Chuck Hagel, seems poised to fall into the lap of popular former Republican Governor Mike Johanns despite the fact that Democrats are running one of the most impressive candidates in recent memory with Scott Kleeb. I keep saying that Kleeb will catch on with enough exposure, especially given how bland Johanns is, but with so little time left, it seems increasingly less likely. Prediction: Johanns by 13.
15. New Jersey--It's always interesting how Democratic candidates that would be very vulnerable elsewhere in the country always manage to find a way to win in New Jersey. Even though geriatric incumbent Frank Lautenberg makes John McCain look like Scott Kleeb, the current political climate makes it likely that the less-than-overwhelmingly-popular Lautenberg will nonetheless win will by double digits over recurring GOP challenger Dick Zimmer. Prediction: Lautenberg by 13.
16. Texas--A recent poll showed one-term Republican incumbent John Cornyn with a soft six-point lead over Democratic challenger Rick Noriega, but I'm not buying it. Cornyn was supposedly tied with 2002 challenger Ron Kirk in the election eve polls before going onto win by 12 points. Prediction: Cornyn by 12.
17. Idaho--Since this is an open seat, I'm giving longshot Democratic candidate Larry LaRocco the benefit of the doubt here that he'll overperform the typical Idaho Democrat. He has been elected in Idaho before and this election is replacing disgraced Republican Larry Craig, which would bode well for the opposition party candidate in most contests....the ones not in Idaho at least. Still, I'm betting Republican Jim Risch soundly defeats him. Prediction: Risch by 16.
18. Oklahoma--Considering how strong of a candidate Democratic challenger Andrew Rice is, considering what a wildly controversial incumbent Republican James Inhofe is, and considering that this is allegedly the most perfect political climate that Democrats can ever hope to run in, I would have thought this race would at least be in single digits. But the neanderthals of Oklahoma simply can't tolerate the idea of having a Senator who isn't a full-blown nutjob ridiculed by the rest of the country. Prediction: Inhofe by 16.
19. South Carolina--Interesting that Democratic challenger Bob Conley is running to the right of Republican Lindsey Graham on many key issues. Only in South Carolina. Doing so could conceivably help Conley overperform traditional Democrats in the state by picking up disaffected Graham voters who find him insufficiently conservative, but by and large I think Graham will still win comfortably. Prediction: Graham by 14.
20. Iowa--While a fifth term for Iowa Senator Tom Harkin is assured given his fourth-rate Republican challenger Christopher Reed, it's still striking that the few polls released for the race still have Harkin poised to score a victory margin of less than a 20 points, even against a guy virtually nobody has ever heard of. It definitely confirms that liberal Harkin has a ceiling of support in Iowa no matter how long his tenure in the state might be. Prediction: Harkin by 19.
21. Wyoming #2--Even though Republican quasi-incumbent John Barrasso is a largely unknown entity who inherited his seat after the death of former Republican Senator Craig Thomas, he's a Republican in Wyoming, and Democratic challenger Nick Carter has not been able to take advantage of Barrasso's limited familiarity with the state. Prediction: Barrasso by 22.
22. South Dakota--I'm still not sure what two-term Democratic incumbent Tim Johnson's opponent's name even is, if that gives you any indication how safe Johnson is in what would otherwise seem to be a vulnerable seat. Prediction: Johnson by 20.
The rest of the races seem like 100% sure things for the incumbents so I won't bother making predictions for them. In total, I'm predicting a net gain of five seats for Democrats, with the obvious caveat that Joe Lieberman seems very likely to start caucusing with Republicans. The Democrats could conceivably score two or three more Senate victories if the stars are all aligned, but if even eight new Senate seats leaves the Dems with only 58 seats, so the filibuster-proof 60-seat majority does not seem particularly plausible. Nonetheless, 55 seats will be an almost impenetrable majority for Democrats to head into the 2010 midterms with, which is a refreshing thought.
posted by Mark at 7:10 PM
1 Comments:
I think Stevens, Dole, and Coleman will lose. I am less sure about Stevens, but I would bet money on both Dole and Coleman losing. Black turnout is already through the roof in North Carolina early voting and that is giving Hagan an early 2 to 1 lead in early votes. I expect that the Democratic tide in Minnesota will also sweep Franken in as long as he doesnt have any last minute gaffe like the one that cost Mike Hatch the governor's seat in 2006.
I also think one of the two deep south Republicans will lose, most likely Wicker. This is another state where African American turnout is going to be better than expect and that coupled with Musgrove getting just enough white voters concerned with economic issues should tip that race narrowly to him.
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