Obama Off To An Early Lead!
The first two precincts in the nation have already closed...in the tiny towns of Dixville Notch and Hart's Location, New Hampshire. Both are historically Republican strongholds, but Obama won Hart's 17-10 and Dixville 15-6. Comparatively, Bush and Kerry tied in Hart's four years ago while Bush won Dixville 19-7. Better luck next time McCain!
Seriously though, I'm actually surprised that I head into election day making only one change to my pre-election predictions in the Presidential, Senate, and House races. In the Presidential race, I still predict a 291-247 Obama victory, with Obama holding the Kerry states and picking up IA, NM, CO, VA, and NV. McCain will eke out wins in OH and FL, and win fairly decisively in NC, MO, and IN.
My only switched calls is in the Senate, where I now predict post-conviction Ted Stevens to fall to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in the Alaska Senate race, raising the number of Democratic victories to six.
We'll see how much crow I have to eat tomorrow at this time.
Seriously though, I'm actually surprised that I head into election day making only one change to my pre-election predictions in the Presidential, Senate, and House races. In the Presidential race, I still predict a 291-247 Obama victory, with Obama holding the Kerry states and picking up IA, NM, CO, VA, and NV. McCain will eke out wins in OH and FL, and win fairly decisively in NC, MO, and IN.
My only switched calls is in the Senate, where I now predict post-conviction Ted Stevens to fall to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in the Alaska Senate race, raising the number of Democratic victories to six.
We'll see how much crow I have to eat tomorrow at this time.
posted by Mark at 10:06 PM
4 Comments:
I can't wait to compare our predictions tomorrow night! Or early Wednesday morning, since I will be out with my boyfriend watching the election results all night tomorrow night, especially for California's results on the House, state legislature, and the 12 ballot measures!
I just finished my final predictions and will have them up on my blog shortly. I predict Obama will win, Democrats will gain one governorship (Missouri), and six Senate seats (Alaska, Colorado, New Mexico, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia), and gain a net of 26 House seats (gaining 29 and losing 3).
My final predictions:
President: Obama 353, McCain 185
Governor: Democrats 29, Republicans 21
Senate: Democrats 58, Republicans 42
House: Democrats 262, Republicans 173
I'm having my usual election eve sleepless night. Totally sucks. And it's not even because I'm all wound up...I just have recurring insomnia issues and it seems to hit at the worst time. I have half a day off tomorrow but this still throws a monkey wrench in my plans given that it's 3:45 a.m. and I'm still wide awake. Sigh...
Anyway, I like your predictions better than mine, but I'm surprised you didn't pick Oregon to go for Merkley in the Senate race.
Well, I am working on my updates right now, and will have Merkley as the winner in Oregon. I also have Coleman winning, but just by 1% and I would not be surprised at all if Franken pulled it out.
Oh, oops! I forgot to put Oregon in my comment.
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