Final Calls On House Races

I contemplated not even bothering trying to game this year's House races because after redistricting, the math is too complicated.  Many states lost seats while others gained, and some of the states that lost seats eliminated two Republican seats while creating one new Democratic seat.  Trying to work this all out in my head is just painful, and the fact that some states (especially California) scrambled the seats up so much that I don't really know where the new district boundaries are adds to the confusion further.  So I settled on simply posting all the competitive districts, picking who I believe will be the winner, and then listing whether the winner will be a party turnover.  For the reasons cited above, even that won't accurately reflect overall movement because of redistricting, but suffice it to say I think the Democrats will pick-up as few as one or two seats or as many as 10-12.  The aforementioned post-redistricting California likely represents more than half of our overall pick-up opportunities whatever the number is.  It's a rather astonishment indictment on an American voting public who was reportedly "fed up" with a caucus full of Tea Party loose cannons that was only hours away from liquidating the nation's finances over the debt ceiling debacle.  Now, voters are fully preparing themselves to play chicken with the same group of degenerates when they inevitably threaten to blow the place up again next year.

Here are the final projections on races expected to be competitive in any way....

AZ-01--Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
AZ-02--Ron Barber (D)
AZ-09--Krysten Sinema (D)
AR-01--Rick Crawford (R)
AR-02--Tim Griffin (R)
AR-04--Tom Cotton (R)--GOP turnover
CA-03--John Garamendi (D)
CA-07--Amerish Bara (D)--Dem turnover
CA-09--Jerry McNerney (D)
CA-10--Jeff Denham (R)
CA-15--Eric Swalwell (D)
CA-24--Lois Capps (D)
CA-26--Tony Strickland (R)
CA-30--Brad Sherman (D)
CA-31--Gary Miller (R)
CA-36--Raul Ruiz (D)--Dem turnover
CA-41--Mark Takano (D)
CA-44--Janice Hahn (D)
CA-47--Gary DeLong (R)
CA-52--Scott Peters (D)--Dem turnover
CO-03--Scott Tipton (R)
CO-06--Mike Coffman (R)
CO-07--Ed Perlmutter (D)
CT-05--Andrew Roraback (R)--GOP turnover
FL-02--Steve Southerland (R)
FL-09--Alan Grayson (D)
FL-10--Dan Webster (R)
FL-13--Bill Young (R)
FL-16--Vern Buchanan (R)
FL-18--Allen West (R)
FL-22--Lois Frankel (D)--Dem turnover
FL-26--Joe Garcia (D)--Dem turnover
GA-12--John Barrow (D)
HI-01--Coleen Hanabusa (D)
IL-08--Tammy Duckworth (D)--Dem turnover
IL-10--Bob Dold (R)
IL-11--Bill Foster (D)--Dem turnover
IL-12--Bill Enyart (D)
IL-13--Rodney Davis (R)
IL-17--Cheri Bustos (D)--Dem turnover
IN-02--Jackie Walorski (R)--GOP turnover
IN-08--Larry Buchson (R)
IN-09--Todd Young (R)
IA-01--Bruce Braley (D)
IA-02--Dave Loebsack (D)
IA-03--Tom Latham (R)--incumbent on incumbent
IA-04--Steve King (R)
KY-06--Andy Barr (R)--GOP turnover
LA-03--Charles Boustany (R)
MD-06--John Delaney (D)--Dem turnover
MA-06--Richard Tisei (R)--GOP turnover
MI-01--Dan Benishek (D)--Dem turnover
MI-03--Justin Amash (R)
MI-11--Kerry Bentivolio (R)
MN-06--Michele Bachmann (R)
MN-08--Rick Nolan (D)--Dem turnover
MT-AL--Steve Daines (R)
NE-02--Lee Terry (R)
NV-03--Joe Heck (R)
NV-04--Danny Tarkanian (R)
NH-01--Frank Guinta (R)
NH-02--Ann Kuster (D)--Dem turnover
NJ-03--John Runyan (R)
NM-01--Michelle Lujan-Grisham (D)
NY-01--Tim Bishop (D)
NY-11--Mike Grimm (R)
NY-18--Nan Hayworth (R)
NY-19--Chris Gibson (R)
NY-21--Matthew Doheny (R)--GOP turnover
NY-24--Dan Maffei (D)--Dem turnover
NY-25--Louise Slaughter (D)
NY-27--Chris Collins (R)--GOP turnover
NC-07--Mike McIntyre (D)
NC-08--Richard Hudson (R)--GOP turnover
NC-11--Mark Meadows (R)--GOP turnover
NC-13--George Holding (R)--GOP turnover
ND-AL--Kevin Cramer (R)
OH-03--Joyce Beatty (D)
OH-06--Bill Johnson (R)
OH-16--Jim Renacci (R)--incumbent vs. incumbent
OK-02--Markwayne Mullin (R)--GOP turnover
PA-06--Jim Gerlach (R)
PA-08--Mike Fitzpatrick (R)
PA-12--Keith Rothfus (R)--GOP turnover
RI-01--Brendan Doherty (R)--GOP turnover
SD-AL--Kristi Noem (R)
TN-04--Scott Des Jarlais (R)
TX-14--Randy Weber (R)
TX-23--Quico Canseco (R)
UT-04--Mia Love (R)--GOP turnover
VA-02--Scott Riggell (R)
WA-01--Suzan DelBene (D)
WA-06--Derek Kilmer (D)
WI-07--Sean Duffy (R)
WI-08--Reid Ribble (R)

A lot of turnovers, mostly due to redistricting or retirements, but the turnovers cut both directions and will largely cancel themselves out.  Democrats actually dodged a bullet in that they got better maps than expected out of California, Illinois, Florida, and Arizona considering the bloodbath of the 2010 election, which laid the framework for a heavily GOP-tilted redistricting in key states.  Had the districts kept their lines from the previous decade, Democrats would probably have gained a few more net seats, but still would likely have fallen far short of the 25 they needed to win back the House.  In other words, brace yourself for another bloody round of unprecedented obstructionism coming from the U.S. House next year.