Another Lousy Night for Democrats
In the latest disappointment for Democrats, incumbent Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee survived his primary challenge on Tuesday night against conservative Steve Laffey, even though the smart money was on Laffey leading up to the election. Had Laffey won, the Republicans planned to abandon their presence in the race, conceding defeat to Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse. The survival of Chafee, the most liberal Republican in Congress, ensures the GOP has at least a 50-50 chance of holding this seat.
Now you'll rarely hear me say this about a Republican, but Chafee is an admirable guy. Of all the Republicans who claim to be "independent" from the Bush administration and the noxious Congressional GOP leadership, Chafee is one of the few who can actually be believed. Most years, I wouldn't lament his re-election and would even find him to be a useful check-and-balance against a Democratic President if there was one in office. Today, however, all that matters is Democrats seizing control of any branch of government they can as a counteragent for the Bush-Frist-Hastert cabal.....and Chafee serves no purpose towards that end.
Ultimately saving Chafee in his 54-46 victory were independent voters who crossed over to vote in the GOP primary because they like Chafee. My concern is that these same independent voters, most of whom despise Bush if polling data from sapphire-blue Rhode Island can be believed, will disproportionately vote for Chafee again in November, dronishly and inadvertantly installing Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader. The only good news for Democrats in Rhode Island is that they swamped the GOP in turnout even though there were no hotly-contested races. In fact, Whitehouse got more votes than both Laffey and Chafee combined. That's an optimistic sign that there may be enough Rhode Islanders who see the big picture to vote for a real Democrat in November rather than the faux-Democrat Chafee.
In more primary news, controversy-plagued Keith Ellison was victorious in a hotly-contested three-way battle for the open MN-05 Congressional seat in Minneapolis. This guy makes me nervous at a number of levels. Aside for his past ties to Louis Farrakahn and his refusal to follow the laws that he passes (unpaid taxes, unpaid parking tickets, tardy submission of election application forms), he just doesn't strike me as a likable guy. A controversial politician at least has to be likable to be successful, but anybody except the hard-core DFL ideologues will be unlikely to take to the abrasive and scowly Ellison. Hopefully, the guy pleasantly surprises me and his constituents. Given that his district is 72% Democratic, there's no doubt he'll be elected in the fall against GOP challenger Alan Fine, but if Fine is pulling in 38-40% of the vote in MN-05 because Golden Valley soccer moms have too many concerns about his ethics issues to vote for him, it'll be a potential millstone around the necks of other DFL candidates running statewide, particularly Klobuchar and Hatch.
Like Rhode Island, turnout among Democrats was robust in Minnesota, even without any top-tier or even second-tier races on the itinerary (only Becky Lourey's true believers took her challenge to Mike Hatch in the gubernatorial race seriously). The DFL swamped Republican turnout statewide by a nearly 2-1 margin in Minnesota, with Klobuchar besting Kennedy in Wright County (his home county) and Hatch beating Pawlenty in Dakota County (Pawlenty's stomping grounds). These figures are unlikely to hold in November, but gives a decent indication of how demoralized and disengaged Minnesota Republicans are this election cycle.
The Dems are very cocky about their prospects in AZ-08 with the victory of hard-right talk show host Randy Graf, whose main issue is illegal immigration, over party-supported moderate Steve Huffman. Most Democratic pundits and media analysts now lean this race to photogenic Democratic candidate Gabrielle Giffords. I'm not convined. Immigration is the top concern of Arizona residents, and their allegiance is much closer to Graf than that of the McCain-Kennedy bill. If Graf comes across like a civilized guy with an articulate anti-immigration position, I expect he'll win. The Dems thought they were scare Oklahomans by caricuratizing extreme-right 2004 Senate candidate Tom Coburn as a foaming-at-the-mouth nutball, but when Coburn actually talked to people and came across as a normal guy, traditional partisan allegiances helped drag Coburn come from behind to score a double-digit victory over Democratic challenger Brad Carson come election night. Considering that AZ-08 still leans ever-so-slightly to the GOP, I'm expecting a similar scenario could play out with Graf this year considering his key issue aligns with that of southern Arizonans.
Overall, the night wasn't as horrific as it could have been. Ben Cardin beat Kweisi Mfume by a solid eight-point margin in the Maryland Senate race, keeping the Democratic advantage against Michael Steele in that contest, but probably creating an uncomfortable racial dynamic that presents a needle for Democrats to thread. Still, that Rhode Island contest was a heartbreaker. Watching those returns come in for Chafee last night, I felt the same sinking feeling in my gut that I felt on the nightmarish election nights of 2002 and 2004, and I fear there be may more disappointment where that came from this November. The Democrats need to OWN independent voters to take back either House of Congress. The fact that so many showed up to save Lincoln Chafee in a Republican primary tells me we're gonna fall short once again.
Now you'll rarely hear me say this about a Republican, but Chafee is an admirable guy. Of all the Republicans who claim to be "independent" from the Bush administration and the noxious Congressional GOP leadership, Chafee is one of the few who can actually be believed. Most years, I wouldn't lament his re-election and would even find him to be a useful check-and-balance against a Democratic President if there was one in office. Today, however, all that matters is Democrats seizing control of any branch of government they can as a counteragent for the Bush-Frist-Hastert cabal.....and Chafee serves no purpose towards that end.
Ultimately saving Chafee in his 54-46 victory were independent voters who crossed over to vote in the GOP primary because they like Chafee. My concern is that these same independent voters, most of whom despise Bush if polling data from sapphire-blue Rhode Island can be believed, will disproportionately vote for Chafee again in November, dronishly and inadvertantly installing Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader. The only good news for Democrats in Rhode Island is that they swamped the GOP in turnout even though there were no hotly-contested races. In fact, Whitehouse got more votes than both Laffey and Chafee combined. That's an optimistic sign that there may be enough Rhode Islanders who see the big picture to vote for a real Democrat in November rather than the faux-Democrat Chafee.
In more primary news, controversy-plagued Keith Ellison was victorious in a hotly-contested three-way battle for the open MN-05 Congressional seat in Minneapolis. This guy makes me nervous at a number of levels. Aside for his past ties to Louis Farrakahn and his refusal to follow the laws that he passes (unpaid taxes, unpaid parking tickets, tardy submission of election application forms), he just doesn't strike me as a likable guy. A controversial politician at least has to be likable to be successful, but anybody except the hard-core DFL ideologues will be unlikely to take to the abrasive and scowly Ellison. Hopefully, the guy pleasantly surprises me and his constituents. Given that his district is 72% Democratic, there's no doubt he'll be elected in the fall against GOP challenger Alan Fine, but if Fine is pulling in 38-40% of the vote in MN-05 because Golden Valley soccer moms have too many concerns about his ethics issues to vote for him, it'll be a potential millstone around the necks of other DFL candidates running statewide, particularly Klobuchar and Hatch.
Like Rhode Island, turnout among Democrats was robust in Minnesota, even without any top-tier or even second-tier races on the itinerary (only Becky Lourey's true believers took her challenge to Mike Hatch in the gubernatorial race seriously). The DFL swamped Republican turnout statewide by a nearly 2-1 margin in Minnesota, with Klobuchar besting Kennedy in Wright County (his home county) and Hatch beating Pawlenty in Dakota County (Pawlenty's stomping grounds). These figures are unlikely to hold in November, but gives a decent indication of how demoralized and disengaged Minnesota Republicans are this election cycle.
The Dems are very cocky about their prospects in AZ-08 with the victory of hard-right talk show host Randy Graf, whose main issue is illegal immigration, over party-supported moderate Steve Huffman. Most Democratic pundits and media analysts now lean this race to photogenic Democratic candidate Gabrielle Giffords. I'm not convined. Immigration is the top concern of Arizona residents, and their allegiance is much closer to Graf than that of the McCain-Kennedy bill. If Graf comes across like a civilized guy with an articulate anti-immigration position, I expect he'll win. The Dems thought they were scare Oklahomans by caricuratizing extreme-right 2004 Senate candidate Tom Coburn as a foaming-at-the-mouth nutball, but when Coburn actually talked to people and came across as a normal guy, traditional partisan allegiances helped drag Coburn come from behind to score a double-digit victory over Democratic challenger Brad Carson come election night. Considering that AZ-08 still leans ever-so-slightly to the GOP, I'm expecting a similar scenario could play out with Graf this year considering his key issue aligns with that of southern Arizonans.
Overall, the night wasn't as horrific as it could have been. Ben Cardin beat Kweisi Mfume by a solid eight-point margin in the Maryland Senate race, keeping the Democratic advantage against Michael Steele in that contest, but probably creating an uncomfortable racial dynamic that presents a needle for Democrats to thread. Still, that Rhode Island contest was a heartbreaker. Watching those returns come in for Chafee last night, I felt the same sinking feeling in my gut that I felt on the nightmarish election nights of 2002 and 2004, and I fear there be may more disappointment where that came from this November. The Democrats need to OWN independent voters to take back either House of Congress. The fact that so many showed up to save Lincoln Chafee in a Republican primary tells me we're gonna fall short once again.
posted by Mark at 9:50 PM
9 Comments:
When we talked about Arizona on Election Projection, Eli Blake (who lives in Arizona) said that the moderate Republicans in eastern suburban Tucson (who hold the balance in AZ-8) are turned off by Graf's rhetoric and that if he is the nominee, the 8th is more likely to flip.
I just finished updating my predictions. I have Missouri and surprisingly Tennessee going blue, but New Jersey is going red (though I doubt the Jersey scenario will play out on Election Day). And Democrats' prospects for picking up 3 seats in the Hoosier state just got better with some new polls.
Here is Tom's take on AZ-08:
The NRCC feared a Graf win because they believe he is too conservative to be electable here.
Registered Democrats actually outnumber registered Republicans here, 43% - 39%.
Giffords has an almost 4:1 cash on hand advantage: $300K to Graf's $80K.
Let's just say I have yet to be convinced that Graf is as weak as the Dems allege he is in AZ-08. Hopefully, some polls prove me wrong.
Sara, I think our original instincts will be right on Tennessee and New Jersey as the GOP slime machine is gearing up for the nastiest season of personal attacks in its history, which will ratchet up the cultural divide and force the usual suspects to pick their usual sides. Harold Ford's current competitiveness in Tennessee is impressive, but keep in mind that at this time in 2004, Erskine Bowles and Brad Carson were soundly leading their GOP challengers in their own Senate races, yet ultimately got smashed eight weeks later when the GOP reminded voters they'd be rewarding Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy with a foot soldier.
With Bush's declining popularity, that ploy may not work AS well in 2006, but we're already seeing the resurgence of Bush's popularity that always happens right before elections when partisans dig in their heels and stand by their man even if they've had differences with him in the past (even Clinton's numbers bounced up a little in October 1994 when Democrats got their first taste of the "Newt Deal" alternative. With that intangible momentum on his side, the only way I can see Corker failing to get elected in Tennessee is if he's served with a criminal indictment.
As for New Jersey, I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous, but Kean is a weaker-than-most-people-think candidate and NJ voters always turn out for Democrats on election night better than predicted on election eve. Menendez has some problems, but don't be surprised if New Jersey Dems pull a redux of the candidate switcheroo they successfully got away with in 2002 trading Torricelli for Lautenberg, this time with popular former Governor Richard Codey. We'll know by September 30 if the Dems can thread that needle again.
Even if Menendez stays in the race, however, the prospect of installing Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader and a George Bush ally from their own state does not seem like a scenario New Jerseyians will ultimately come out in favor of. If Jon Corzine was able to win a gubernatorial election last year by comparing his opponent to George Bush, I'm confident that Menendez (or his replacement) will be able to do the same in a much more crucial Senate race.
I do ultimately think that New Jersey and Tennessee will flip again between now and Election Day.
I also found a couple of polls that show that Democrats do have an advantage in AZ-08. Constituent Dynamics released a whole slew of House races, most of which were in the Dems' favor, including AZ-08 in which a generic Dem-GOP poll put the Dems up 50-46. And when replaced with the names Giffords and Graf, Giffords lead comfortably 46-36 in a Zimmerman poll. Of course a lot can change in two months, but I do think Gabby will pull out with a win, possibly helped by Napolitano's coattails.
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sara, I wrote in the blog entry that Whitehouse bested the combined performance of Laffey and Chafee in the RI primary. That is a reason for optimism, but this election will be determined by the people who sat out the primary but will still vote in the general, and you have to expect they'll go with the guy who they're most familiar with, and after surviving a stiff primary challenge and being a seven-year incumbent, you have to like Chafee's chances. I would rate this race and Missouri's as the two biggest Senate race tossups.
Oh, I forgot. Here are my two cents on MN-05. When I first saw the primary results from the district I was thrilled that we would finally have a Muslim in Congress. Unfortunately, my excitement was dampened when I found out about the ethical troubles he faced, and I too am worried about DFL prospects in the 5th.
Ellison will win by at least 20 points in MN-05. It's such an overwhelmingly Democratic district that Ellison would have to reaffirm his ties to Louis Farrakahn and get several more parking tickets he refuses to pay before he would be made to be vulnerable here. Even then, Independence Party candidate Tammy Lee would be his only competition. Republican candidate Alan Fine was poised to get a decent showing against the controversial Ellison, but shocked the state when he viciously attacked Ellison's character the night of the primary. He's been unrelenting in his daily assaults on Ellison since (including on two televised debates this weekend), and has made himself look like a sleazy SOB in the process.
My only conclusion is that Fine is a DFL plant meant to turn Ellison into a sympathetic figure so he won't be a drain on the Democratic ticket statewide. Trust me....that is nothing an easy thing to do with Ellison, but Fine is pulling it off.
Great news! The NRCC withdrew all financial support from AZ-08 after David Duke endorsed Randy Graf. Now we can all breathe a little easier, and focus on 15 other vulnerable Republican seats!
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