Minnesota Predictions: How Did I Do?
Six months before the election, I made some long-range predictions on Minnesota county performances for the 2012 Presidential race. At the time, polls indicated Minnesota would perform similarly to 2008 for Obama, and while I had a few scares over the course of the campaign, the final result did end up being similar, with Obama's 10-point margin of 2008 shrinking only to eight points in 2012. I put the counties into different categories based on their expected competitiveness. Below I will do a category by category comparison and see how well I held up by posting the two-party results next to the predictions.
Safe Obama County Predictions
Carlton County 63.4% Obama
Cook County 62.0% Obama
Hennepin County 63.8% Obama
Itasca County 55.0% Obama
Lake County 60.8% Obama
Mower County 61.6% Obama
Ramsey County 68.1% Obama
St. Louis County 65.2% Obama
Swift County 55.0% Obama
These were the easy ones. Not only did Obama win all nine of these counties, he won them all by double digits, although narrowly so with Itasca and Swift Counties. In subsequent cycles, I'm likely to add a couple more counties to this category after their 2012 performances reinforced their safeness for Democratic Presidential nominees.
Likely Obama County Predictions
Beltrami County 55.1% Obama
Big Stone County 50.7% Romney
Blue Earth County 54.9% Obama
Chippewa County 51.0% Obama
Freeborn County 57.2% Obama
Kittson County 53.1% Obama
Koochiching County 54.8% Obama
Lac qui Parle County 50.5% Obama
Mahnomen County 59.2% Obama
Norman County 55.6% Obama
Rice County 54.2% Obama
Winona County 56.6% Obama
I got one wrong here, and it was the county that I should have had "Lean Obama" rather than "Likely Obama" all along. Big Stone is a tiny, rural county in the state's far western flank with a rich Democratic tradition but with staggering population losses among the very generation that made the county so Democratic in the first place. Big Stone County's neighbors in west-central Minnesota share the same "farm Democrat" pedigree and saw the weakest performances for Obama this year. Part of this is that Obama is uniquely ill-suited to the area's profile and part of it is that all the old Democrats are dying off while all the kids leave the area after graduation day. On the other hand, the Native American population growth is so staggering in Beltrami and especially Mahnomen Counties that I think from now on those counties may be in the "safe Democrat" categorization. Freeborn and Winona Counties are very close to that threshold as well.
Lean Obama County Predictions
Clay County 54.1% Obama
Fillmore County 53.8% Obama
Grant County 51.5% Romney
Nicollet County 54.0% Obama
Pope County 51.3% Romney
Traverse County 52.3% Obama
Yellow Medicine County 53.2% Romney
Much more of a mixed bag in this group as the list of counties is disproportionately made up of those west-central Minnesota old-school farm Democrat areas that were weak for Obama this year. Keep in mind that I was basing my list on an expectation of a 10-point Obama win statewide rather than eight-point win that materialized, and had that been the case, more of these narrow Romney counties would have tipped Obama, but even with that in mind Obama underperformed traditional Democratic numbers by eye-opening margins in this area. No Democrat winning by eight points statewide has any business losing Grant or Pope Counties, for instance. The rest of the counties on my list played out much closer to expectations.
Tossup/Tilt Obama County Predictions
Aitkin County 50.7% Romney
Dakota County 51.5% Obama
Houston County 51.6% Obama
Olmsted County 51.6% Obama
Pine County 50.3% Romney
Polk County 52.9% Romney
Red Lake County 51.3% Romney
Stevens County 50.2% Romney
Washington County 50.4% Obama
Watonwan County 50.3% Romney
Clearly this group was on the razor's edge when I made my predictions so it's not surprising my batting average here was only around .500. Again, had Obama won by one or two points more statewide, most of these narrow Romney counties would have tipped to the good guys. And of the closest counties in the state (two-point margins of difference), it seemed like just about all of them went Romney.
Tossup/Tilt Romney County Predictions
Anoka County 51.3% Romney
Goodhue County 51.5% Romney
Lincoln County 52.7% Romney
Marshall County 56.3% Romney
Murray County 53.7% Romney
Nobles County 54.7% Romney
Pennington County 52.6% Romney
Renville County 55.0% Romney
Wabasha County 52.8% Romney
I correctly predicted the winner in all of this category and while most of them were at least reasonably close, those western Minnesota tossup counties turned stronger to Romney than I anticipated. These counties are still in reach for certain kind of Democrats, even at the Presidential level, but the likelihood is that all of them will probably be going Republican more often than not in federal races for the foreseeable future.
Lean Romney County Predictions
Kandiyohi County 53.4% Romney
Lyon County 54.7% Romney
It would have taken a significant double-digit margin statewide for Obama to win in either of these counties, but changing demographics still made them more competitive than they were in either of the Bush elections.
Likely Romney County Predictions
Benton County 57.0% Romney
Chisago County 56.4% Romney
Clearwater County 57.4% Romney
Cottonwood County 57.7% Romney
Faribault County 54.7% Romney
Jackson County 57.3% Romney
Kanabec County 54.6% Romney
Le Sueur County 53.3% Romney
Meeker County 58.2% Romney
Mille Lacs County 54.4% Romney
Steele County 53.2% Romney
Todd County 58.2% Romney
Waseca County 53.9% Romney
No surprises that most counties in the group went double-digits or high-single digits for Romney. A few of them in southeastern Minnesota seem to be softening a bit but are still pretty firmly in the Republican corner. A number of these counties are on the bubble for getting the "safe Republican" designation but I held back on them because in every case the right kind of Democrat has proven him or herself capable of being competitive and occasionally winning, even at the Presidential level.
Safe Romney County Predictions
Becker County 57.4% Romney
Brown County 58.5% Romney
Carver County 60.0% Romney
Cass County 56.6% Romney
Crow Wing County 56.8% Romney
Dodge County 55.2% Romney
Douglas County 57.9% Romney
Hubbard County 58.6% Romney
Isanti County 59.3% Romney
Lake of the Woods Co. 60.3% Romney
McLeod County 61.4% Romney
Martin County 62.2% Romney
Morrison County 62.3% Romney
Otter Tail County 60.8% Romney
Pipestone County 62.1% Romney
Redwood County 60.3% Romney
Rock County 59.2% Romney
Roseau County 61.3% Romney
Scott County 57.6% Romney
Sherburne County 61.3% Romney
Sibley County 61.7% Romney
Stearns County 56.2% Romney
Wadena County 62.4% Romney
Wilkin County 60.0% Romney
Wright County 61.1% Romney
No surprise at all that every county in this category went Romney by double digits. These counties are all either long-standing Republican strongholds or counties that have been trending GOP substantially in recent years. Most states have a pretty obvious candidate for which county will be its most Republican each cycle, but in Minnesota there are a number of contenders for that position. This year Wadena County won a tight four-way race as the most Republican county of the state. In 2008 it was Sibley County which is normally not among the most GOP in the state. Also in contention this year and other years are Roseau, Pipestone, Rock, Redwood, and Martin Counties. Morrison County has only recently become a contender for the state's reddest county. And curiously, the most Republican county in state races is almost always Carver County, but in Presidential races it usually isn't at the top of the list of red counties.
As for the state's bluest county, St. Louis County has held that trophy for nearly all of my life, but the changing racial composition of St. Paul appears to have catapulted Ramsey County to a level of blueness that will likely upstage St. Louis County in most future races, as it did this year. Hennepin County never used to be among the state's bluest but similar demographic changes have made it so in recent cycles. The state's county map hasn't changed spectacularly since the 80s, but the degree of blueness and redness in certain counties has while a dozen or so counties have undergone a complete transformation politically since the Dukakis-Bush race.
Amy Klobuchar won 85 of Minnesota's 87 counties, just as I suspected, with Pipestone and Rock Counties in Minnesota's southwestern corner being the only two holdouts for Bills. Those counties have a huge number of inelastic evangelical voters and are in the Sioux Falls, SD, media market, where few voters would be likely to even know who Amy Klobuchar is. This creates a political environment where Republicans are favored in nearly every race. I was surprised at the extent to which Klobuchar's strength extended to double-digit wins in every other county, however. Bills' lack of competitiveness even in the exurbs took me by surprise, with numerous 75% Romney precincts going for Klobuchar all over the state.
In the House races, I figured Tim Walz would vanquish Allen Quist by more than 20 points in MN-01. Quist was decently funded, however, and had an impressive presence on the airwaves compared to Walz's past challengers, and Quist also stayed away from the social issues that were the centerpiece of his tenure in the legislature. As a result, Walz's win was 15 points, which is impressive, but smaller than expected.
I was also impressed by Mike Obermueller holding John Kline to single digits in MN-02. In a Democratic-leaning year, Obermueller's performance likely represents something close to a highwater mark for Democrats for as long as Kline holds the seat, but should Kline retire I'd say Obermueller has respectable odds of picking up this seat, particularly with Presidential year turnout in Northfield.
I figured Erik Paulsen was a cinch to get over 60% against his Some Dude challenger and was surprised that he only managed 58% in MN-03, but I still think Paulsen is the best Republican the GOP has to challenge Franken in 2014. McCollum and Ellison scored predictable blowout margins in their urban districts.
Michele Bachmann, on the other hand, seriously underperformed. I figured the last Star Tribune poll showing Bachmann up by six would be close to the final result, and didn't see Graves getting to more than 49% of the vote in that district. Had the district lines not changed from 2010 and the district still had Stillwater and Woodbury instead of Waconia and Norwood Young America, Graves would have won this thing and I have to give him a hat tip for his effort. There's obviously a very real chance Bachmann will continue to antagonize non-crazy voters in MN-06 and thus be vulnerable again, but it's hard for me to imagine a more perfect situation to take her out emerging that what we just had.
Collin Peterson won with 60% even with an Independence Party candidate siphoning off a significant share of the vote, which is nothing to sneeze at, but it does seem as though the 70% Peterson margins of the mid-2000s may be over as MN-07 seems to be becoming more Republican. The Democrats have a solid bench in this district for when Peterson retires, but it's still hard to see the Democrats holding this seat when that time comes.
And in MN-08, I was struck by the weakness of Chip Cravaack, who ran a generally strong re-election campaign and whose ground game presence made it look like he was a favorite against Nolan. From the get-go, I was confident Nolan would win this race because of the pedigree of the district, but I figured it would be a three or four-point race. I wouldn't have believed Nolan would vanquish Cravaack by nine points and overperform Obama. Especially surprising was how well Nolan did in the district's conservative southern counties which seemed like a solid base for Cravaack who I figured was a comfortable ideological fit for the area.
There's not much to say about the ballot amendments other than I was surprised that both were voted down. Typically the default vote for ballot initiatives is "no" which I should have taken note of, but when it comes to gay marriage, I didn't think Minnesota was quite there yet. I still don't and if the DFL legislators from outstate Minnesota, where "yes" won by a lopsided margin, try to take the next step and enact gay marriage in the state, it will be trouble for the DFL in 2014. I was more surprised by the voter ID amendment though as I didn't think voters would have the sense to reject that gimmick anywhere. The bipartisan opposition ads from Arne Carlson and Mark Dayton seemed to have made quite a difference in turning the tide on that issue.
As for both the state Senate and state House flipping to the DFL, it was a little surprising but not that surprising given how strong the DFL was in the state this year. Frankly, for the sake of Dayton in 2014 and preventing DFL overreach next session, I was kind of rooting for the Republicans to narrowly hold the House. Whatever the case, the courts once again drew highly competitive legislative districts which will mean that the narrowest partisan advantage in a given cycle likely means a flurry of seats trading hands. This has been the case since 2002 in Minnesota with decisive seat-flipping every two years. It's hard to not be a little nervous already for 2014, but for now I'm trying to enjoy a big win when we got one.
Safe Obama County Predictions
Carlton County 63.4% Obama
Cook County 62.0% Obama
Hennepin County 63.8% Obama
Itasca County 55.0% Obama
Lake County 60.8% Obama
Mower County 61.6% Obama
Ramsey County 68.1% Obama
St. Louis County 65.2% Obama
Swift County 55.0% Obama
These were the easy ones. Not only did Obama win all nine of these counties, he won them all by double digits, although narrowly so with Itasca and Swift Counties. In subsequent cycles, I'm likely to add a couple more counties to this category after their 2012 performances reinforced their safeness for Democratic Presidential nominees.
Likely Obama County Predictions
Beltrami County 55.1% Obama
Big Stone County 50.7% Romney
Blue Earth County 54.9% Obama
Chippewa County 51.0% Obama
Freeborn County 57.2% Obama
Kittson County 53.1% Obama
Koochiching County 54.8% Obama
Lac qui Parle County 50.5% Obama
Mahnomen County 59.2% Obama
Norman County 55.6% Obama
Rice County 54.2% Obama
Winona County 56.6% Obama
I got one wrong here, and it was the county that I should have had "Lean Obama" rather than "Likely Obama" all along. Big Stone is a tiny, rural county in the state's far western flank with a rich Democratic tradition but with staggering population losses among the very generation that made the county so Democratic in the first place. Big Stone County's neighbors in west-central Minnesota share the same "farm Democrat" pedigree and saw the weakest performances for Obama this year. Part of this is that Obama is uniquely ill-suited to the area's profile and part of it is that all the old Democrats are dying off while all the kids leave the area after graduation day. On the other hand, the Native American population growth is so staggering in Beltrami and especially Mahnomen Counties that I think from now on those counties may be in the "safe Democrat" categorization. Freeborn and Winona Counties are very close to that threshold as well.
Lean Obama County Predictions
Clay County 54.1% Obama
Fillmore County 53.8% Obama
Grant County 51.5% Romney
Nicollet County 54.0% Obama
Pope County 51.3% Romney
Traverse County 52.3% Obama
Yellow Medicine County 53.2% Romney
Much more of a mixed bag in this group as the list of counties is disproportionately made up of those west-central Minnesota old-school farm Democrat areas that were weak for Obama this year. Keep in mind that I was basing my list on an expectation of a 10-point Obama win statewide rather than eight-point win that materialized, and had that been the case, more of these narrow Romney counties would have tipped Obama, but even with that in mind Obama underperformed traditional Democratic numbers by eye-opening margins in this area. No Democrat winning by eight points statewide has any business losing Grant or Pope Counties, for instance. The rest of the counties on my list played out much closer to expectations.
Tossup/Tilt Obama County Predictions
Aitkin County 50.7% Romney
Dakota County 51.5% Obama
Houston County 51.6% Obama
Olmsted County 51.6% Obama
Pine County 50.3% Romney
Polk County 52.9% Romney
Red Lake County 51.3% Romney
Stevens County 50.2% Romney
Washington County 50.4% Obama
Watonwan County 50.3% Romney
Clearly this group was on the razor's edge when I made my predictions so it's not surprising my batting average here was only around .500. Again, had Obama won by one or two points more statewide, most of these narrow Romney counties would have tipped to the good guys. And of the closest counties in the state (two-point margins of difference), it seemed like just about all of them went Romney.
Tossup/Tilt Romney County Predictions
Anoka County 51.3% Romney
Goodhue County 51.5% Romney
Lincoln County 52.7% Romney
Marshall County 56.3% Romney
Murray County 53.7% Romney
Nobles County 54.7% Romney
Pennington County 52.6% Romney
Renville County 55.0% Romney
Wabasha County 52.8% Romney
I correctly predicted the winner in all of this category and while most of them were at least reasonably close, those western Minnesota tossup counties turned stronger to Romney than I anticipated. These counties are still in reach for certain kind of Democrats, even at the Presidential level, but the likelihood is that all of them will probably be going Republican more often than not in federal races for the foreseeable future.
Lean Romney County Predictions
Kandiyohi County 53.4% Romney
Lyon County 54.7% Romney
It would have taken a significant double-digit margin statewide for Obama to win in either of these counties, but changing demographics still made them more competitive than they were in either of the Bush elections.
Likely Romney County Predictions
Benton County 57.0% Romney
Chisago County 56.4% Romney
Clearwater County 57.4% Romney
Cottonwood County 57.7% Romney
Faribault County 54.7% Romney
Jackson County 57.3% Romney
Kanabec County 54.6% Romney
Le Sueur County 53.3% Romney
Meeker County 58.2% Romney
Mille Lacs County 54.4% Romney
Steele County 53.2% Romney
Todd County 58.2% Romney
Waseca County 53.9% Romney
No surprises that most counties in the group went double-digits or high-single digits for Romney. A few of them in southeastern Minnesota seem to be softening a bit but are still pretty firmly in the Republican corner. A number of these counties are on the bubble for getting the "safe Republican" designation but I held back on them because in every case the right kind of Democrat has proven him or herself capable of being competitive and occasionally winning, even at the Presidential level.
Safe Romney County Predictions
Becker County 57.4% Romney
Brown County 58.5% Romney
Carver County 60.0% Romney
Cass County 56.6% Romney
Crow Wing County 56.8% Romney
Dodge County 55.2% Romney
Douglas County 57.9% Romney
Hubbard County 58.6% Romney
Isanti County 59.3% Romney
Lake of the Woods Co. 60.3% Romney
McLeod County 61.4% Romney
Martin County 62.2% Romney
Morrison County 62.3% Romney
Otter Tail County 60.8% Romney
Pipestone County 62.1% Romney
Redwood County 60.3% Romney
Rock County 59.2% Romney
Roseau County 61.3% Romney
Scott County 57.6% Romney
Sherburne County 61.3% Romney
Sibley County 61.7% Romney
Stearns County 56.2% Romney
Wadena County 62.4% Romney
Wilkin County 60.0% Romney
Wright County 61.1% Romney
No surprise at all that every county in this category went Romney by double digits. These counties are all either long-standing Republican strongholds or counties that have been trending GOP substantially in recent years. Most states have a pretty obvious candidate for which county will be its most Republican each cycle, but in Minnesota there are a number of contenders for that position. This year Wadena County won a tight four-way race as the most Republican county of the state. In 2008 it was Sibley County which is normally not among the most GOP in the state. Also in contention this year and other years are Roseau, Pipestone, Rock, Redwood, and Martin Counties. Morrison County has only recently become a contender for the state's reddest county. And curiously, the most Republican county in state races is almost always Carver County, but in Presidential races it usually isn't at the top of the list of red counties.
As for the state's bluest county, St. Louis County has held that trophy for nearly all of my life, but the changing racial composition of St. Paul appears to have catapulted Ramsey County to a level of blueness that will likely upstage St. Louis County in most future races, as it did this year. Hennepin County never used to be among the state's bluest but similar demographic changes have made it so in recent cycles. The state's county map hasn't changed spectacularly since the 80s, but the degree of blueness and redness in certain counties has while a dozen or so counties have undergone a complete transformation politically since the Dukakis-Bush race.
Amy Klobuchar won 85 of Minnesota's 87 counties, just as I suspected, with Pipestone and Rock Counties in Minnesota's southwestern corner being the only two holdouts for Bills. Those counties have a huge number of inelastic evangelical voters and are in the Sioux Falls, SD, media market, where few voters would be likely to even know who Amy Klobuchar is. This creates a political environment where Republicans are favored in nearly every race. I was surprised at the extent to which Klobuchar's strength extended to double-digit wins in every other county, however. Bills' lack of competitiveness even in the exurbs took me by surprise, with numerous 75% Romney precincts going for Klobuchar all over the state.
In the House races, I figured Tim Walz would vanquish Allen Quist by more than 20 points in MN-01. Quist was decently funded, however, and had an impressive presence on the airwaves compared to Walz's past challengers, and Quist also stayed away from the social issues that were the centerpiece of his tenure in the legislature. As a result, Walz's win was 15 points, which is impressive, but smaller than expected.
I was also impressed by Mike Obermueller holding John Kline to single digits in MN-02. In a Democratic-leaning year, Obermueller's performance likely represents something close to a highwater mark for Democrats for as long as Kline holds the seat, but should Kline retire I'd say Obermueller has respectable odds of picking up this seat, particularly with Presidential year turnout in Northfield.
I figured Erik Paulsen was a cinch to get over 60% against his Some Dude challenger and was surprised that he only managed 58% in MN-03, but I still think Paulsen is the best Republican the GOP has to challenge Franken in 2014. McCollum and Ellison scored predictable blowout margins in their urban districts.
Michele Bachmann, on the other hand, seriously underperformed. I figured the last Star Tribune poll showing Bachmann up by six would be close to the final result, and didn't see Graves getting to more than 49% of the vote in that district. Had the district lines not changed from 2010 and the district still had Stillwater and Woodbury instead of Waconia and Norwood Young America, Graves would have won this thing and I have to give him a hat tip for his effort. There's obviously a very real chance Bachmann will continue to antagonize non-crazy voters in MN-06 and thus be vulnerable again, but it's hard for me to imagine a more perfect situation to take her out emerging that what we just had.
Collin Peterson won with 60% even with an Independence Party candidate siphoning off a significant share of the vote, which is nothing to sneeze at, but it does seem as though the 70% Peterson margins of the mid-2000s may be over as MN-07 seems to be becoming more Republican. The Democrats have a solid bench in this district for when Peterson retires, but it's still hard to see the Democrats holding this seat when that time comes.
And in MN-08, I was struck by the weakness of Chip Cravaack, who ran a generally strong re-election campaign and whose ground game presence made it look like he was a favorite against Nolan. From the get-go, I was confident Nolan would win this race because of the pedigree of the district, but I figured it would be a three or four-point race. I wouldn't have believed Nolan would vanquish Cravaack by nine points and overperform Obama. Especially surprising was how well Nolan did in the district's conservative southern counties which seemed like a solid base for Cravaack who I figured was a comfortable ideological fit for the area.
There's not much to say about the ballot amendments other than I was surprised that both were voted down. Typically the default vote for ballot initiatives is "no" which I should have taken note of, but when it comes to gay marriage, I didn't think Minnesota was quite there yet. I still don't and if the DFL legislators from outstate Minnesota, where "yes" won by a lopsided margin, try to take the next step and enact gay marriage in the state, it will be trouble for the DFL in 2014. I was more surprised by the voter ID amendment though as I didn't think voters would have the sense to reject that gimmick anywhere. The bipartisan opposition ads from Arne Carlson and Mark Dayton seemed to have made quite a difference in turning the tide on that issue.
As for both the state Senate and state House flipping to the DFL, it was a little surprising but not that surprising given how strong the DFL was in the state this year. Frankly, for the sake of Dayton in 2014 and preventing DFL overreach next session, I was kind of rooting for the Republicans to narrowly hold the House. Whatever the case, the courts once again drew highly competitive legislative districts which will mean that the narrowest partisan advantage in a given cycle likely means a flurry of seats trading hands. This has been the case since 2002 in Minnesota with decisive seat-flipping every two years. It's hard to not be a little nervous already for 2014, but for now I'm trying to enjoy a big win when we got one.
posted by Mark at 11:49 AM
2 Comments:
Looking at the state legislature, the State Senate will probably be in DFL hands for at least another decade as in this decade, it will only be up for election in Presidential years as opposed to only midterm years last decade.
The state House is iffier, but unless Democrats have another year like 2010(highly unlikely), they will probably hold on there as well unless Dayton somehow becomes very unpopular.
As for the Senate race, you probably think Franken will lose. I really doubt it. He hasnt done anything controversial and is a generally good campaigner. As you have mentioned before, it takes an usual situation for a non-incumbent Republican to win statewide here. In 2002, you had the Wellstone memorial that turned independent voters towards Coleman at the last minute and in the governors race you had Tim Penny taking usually Democratic votes away from Moe as well as the Wellstone memorial, allowing Pawlenty to win with a pluarality.
You are correct that with the Minnesota state Senate up entirely during Presidential election cycles this decade, the DFL probably has some advantages in holding it. That's not necessarily true for outstate DFLers that will be representing districts that go Republican for President, but by and large you'd rather be a State Senator up in a Presidential year than a midterm. There are no gerrymandered legislative districts so the likelihood of an even minor partisan tide sweeping away a dozen or more seats every two years is probably the new normal in Minnesota. When the DFL can go from having 2-1 supermajorities to being in the minority after the 2010 election, you know you're dealing with a volatile political culture where a few hundred votes statewide going the other direction would have prevented 20 or more seats from flipping, a situation we've been seeing in Minnesota legislative races since 2002.
Now that Dayton's party has ownership of whatever unpopular budget fix is enacted this year, it seems likely he becomes unpopular heading into 2014. His re-election prospects will depend upon how unpopular he becomes and how credible his eventual challenger is.
As of today, I think Franken has better than even odds of re-election. As I said, Paulsen is the only Republican on the bench that seems capable of beating him. As always, there's a ton of variables regarding the state of the economy but you are correct that reaching 50% is always a tall order for a Republican in Minnesota no matter the political environment. Minnesota's civic-mindedness tends to produce strong turnout even in midterms, preventing the kind of apathy-inspired Republican landslides seen in the swing states in defensive cycles when the Democratic vote simply sits it out.
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