Happy 21st Birthday, MacGyver

Twenty-one years ago today, life as I knew it changed forever. I still remember the dreary day that was September 29, 1985. I was housebound with a ferocious cough, but was nonetheless counting down the hours until the premiere of the new ABC action-adventure series whose ads had captivated me throughout the summer. "MacGyver" premiered at 7 p.m., not only meeting my expectations, but exceeded them. Despite the kamikaze Sunday night timeslot the series was placed in, viewers slowly came to share my enthusiasm for the series as its ratings grew progressively with each impressive episode until it took over second place in its time slot. From there, the legend only grew stronger.

So in honor of our squeaky-clean, alcohol-averse hero's 21st birthday, I encourage everybody to celebrate by NOT having a drink.

September's GOP Asshat of the Month

The obvious choice this month would be a repeat performance for Virginia Senator George Allen, following his horrendous and needlessly defensive response to a reporter's question about his mother's Jewish upbringing. However, I'm sensing the latest flurry of allegations that accuse Allen of regularly using the n-word in reference to African-Americans will backfire on whoever is hoping they will sink Allen. Rumors are now surfacing that Democratic challenger James Webb has some far more brazen racist skeletons in his closet, and if scrutinized, would prove disastrous for Webb. Either way, expect Virginians to give Allen a sympathy vote here. Every white Southerner who has ever used a racial epithet in the past squirms at the current persecution of George Allen's possible racist language from a quarter century ago. Inadvertantly, Jim Webb's campaign has likely been dealt a major blow by some knuckleheaded Democratic strategist, almost assuredly from another state, who thought this smear against Allen was a good idea.

Shifting back to this month's GOP asshat, it has to go to Ohio Congressman Bob Ney....or should I say FORMER Ohio Congressman and current convicted felon Bob Ney. Even after being named in the Jack Abramoff scandal last winter, Ney pressed forward in pursuit of another term to the House of Representatives. About six weeks ago, Ney decided to forgo that bid, and most people thought it was because he didn't believe he could win the seat under threat of imminent criminal indictment. As it turns out, Ney gave up the battle because he could no longer conceal from voters the fact that he's a crook. He plead guilty a couple of weeks ago to two criminal charges related to the Abramoff corruption scandal, and Justice Department officials said prosecutors are recommending a 27-month prison term for him.

My first thought after the announcement of Ney abandoning his candidacy was that his lackluster Democratic challenger Zack Space, whose entire campaign consisted of him not being Bob Ney, was no longer a serious contender to be elected in a district that went for George Bush by 14 points in 2004. The guilty plea, however, shook things back up....to Space's favor. Now, there are two Ohio Republicans (the other being disgraced Governor Bob Taft) who originally insisted they were innocent in their respective corruption scandals but who have now been found guilty of the crimes they were charged of. And both men have deep ties to the woman who they hand-picked to be Ney's replacement on the Republican ticket, a disgusting piece of Republican feces named Joy Padgett who, two years ago, faced a Democratic challenge in the Ohio Senate by former Lebanon hostage Terry Anderson. Padgett ran an ad featuring Anderson with his terrorist captors and suggested he was a "friend of terrorism". Unbelievably, she won.

Thankfully, polls indicate Padgett might not be having nearly as much luck in 2006, where scandal-weary voters aren't exactly enamored with rewarding Taft and Ney's hand-picked successor with a term in Congress. A recent poll showed Space, as weak as he is, with a significant lead over Padgett, even though Padgett has represented a very large chunk of the district in the Legislature over the years.

The delicious irony here: if Bob Ney had simply given up his quest for another Congressional term last winter following the first charges in the Abramoff scandal, Padgett would have been able to get in the race early and would currently be enjoying a double-digit lead in the polls over space. Thanks Bob Ney!

Reevaluating Sherrod Brown

Ever since the day Paul Hackett dropped out of the Ohio Senate race, I've been bearish about liberal Congressman Sherrod Brown's chances against moderate Republican incumbent Mike DeWine, despite DeWine's undeniable vulnerability in virtually every poll taken in the past year. An outstanding article by John Nichols in "The Nation" last week helped lift my spirits that perhaps Brown is the real deal after all. http://www.thenation.com/docprint.mhtml?i=20061002&s=nichols2

The article talks about Brown's willingness to campaign in strongly Republican areas of the state that should be solidly aligned with the Democrats from a demographic standpoint (one specific location listed was the blue-collar town of Lima in western Ohio). By concentrating on economic issues, Brown's specialty, he's able to reach many of these voters who habitually vote for Republicans because of social wedge issues that always seem to be top on voters minds when they head to the polls.

As uplifting as the article was, I still have a hard time believing the "proud liberal" Brown won't be demagogued right out of his lead in the polls after Karl Rove gets done sliming him. "God, guns, gays, and gynecology" seem certain to be pushed back onto the campaign frontburner no matter how hard Brown tries to talk about jobs. Still, a campaign that I had long thought was a mess seems to be pretty damn competent. The fact that Brown continues to lead in nearly every poll seven weeks before the election is a strong testimonial that he's doing something right. Let's just hope Brown's 5-6 point lead doesn't go the way of Kerry's similar margin in Ohio a month before the 2004 election.

Weekend Road Trip to the Northland

On Saturday and Sunday, I took an exhausting 1600-mile ballbuster of a road trip to Minnesota's north woods. And I'm not talking about Brainerd, Alexandria or any of the other wimpy sanctuaries of suburban Minneapolis expatriates only a couple hours north of the Cities, I'm talking about the REAL northlands....places like Duluth, Lake Superior's North Shore, Ely, International Falls, and Bemidji. I go on these northern Minnesota road trips every September, and was particularly excited to be heading into the heart of DFL country 50 days before an election to assess the yard sign wars. My only disappointment is that the Republicans didn't even attempt to make it a contest.

A number of DFLers have commented in the past month how all they see driving on rural Minnesota highways are signs for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Hatch and Senate candidate Amy Klobuchar. I assumed it was an early oversight on the Republicans' part and that they'd be on the ball with an army of their own signs along highways and city streets after Labor Day. That isn't happening. A few local Republican candidates had a yard sign presence, particularly on the long stretch of highway between International Falls and Bemidji, but nowhere amongst the signs for Congressional candidate Rod Grams and local Republican officials were signs for Tim Pawlenty or Mark Kennedy. That almost certainly means that the state GOP is not making signs for Pawlenty or Kennedy readily available. Only in the city of Bemidji did I see three Kennedy signs and one Pawlenty sign (and it was in the window of the county GOP headquarters!).

Now, yard sign presence is hardly a good indicator of how an election is going to go, but it is fairly indicative of supporter enthusiasm....and candidate enthusiasm for that matter. Particularly in the case of Kennedy, whose poll numbers have been absolutely abysmal in the past two months, his lackluster ground game almost smells like an inevitability of defeat has kept him from sufficiently competing with his opponent house to house, yard to yard the way that any number of DFL and GOP candidates have done in the past. If Pawlenty and Kennedy yard signs continue to be an endangered species, it creates a certain psychological momentum for swing voters in neighborhoods where the neighbors all have Klobuchar or Hatch signs in their yard. With seven more weeks until the election, it's not out of the question that the Republicans could suddenly come out of their shell and distribute some Pawlenty and Kennedy signs to their foot soldiers, but the clock is ticking without any semblance of a ground game at work yet.

On the DFL side, some towns and more counties had a more significant yard sign presence than others, as sign distribution relates heavily to the county party's organization and enthusiasm. However, it was not uncommon to see Hatch and Klobuchar signs on the most remote farm driveways and state roads in northwestern and northeastern Minnesota. I'm gonna be keeping a close eye on election night to see if the vote returns prove this year's DFL rural strategy (a strategy that really seems to be pushed by the Hatch campaign) yields wider margins than usual for DFL candidates. If Hatch wins the tick-tight gubernatorial race, my money is that his outsized presence in rural Minnesota will be key to overcoming Pawlenty's popularity in the suburbs.

Another Lousy Night for Democrats

In the latest disappointment for Democrats, incumbent Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee survived his primary challenge on Tuesday night against conservative Steve Laffey, even though the smart money was on Laffey leading up to the election. Had Laffey won, the Republicans planned to abandon their presence in the race, conceding defeat to Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse. The survival of Chafee, the most liberal Republican in Congress, ensures the GOP has at least a 50-50 chance of holding this seat.

Now you'll rarely hear me say this about a Republican, but Chafee is an admirable guy. Of all the Republicans who claim to be "independent" from the Bush administration and the noxious Congressional GOP leadership, Chafee is one of the few who can actually be believed. Most years, I wouldn't lament his re-election and would even find him to be a useful check-and-balance against a Democratic President if there was one in office. Today, however, all that matters is Democrats seizing control of any branch of government they can as a counteragent for the Bush-Frist-Hastert cabal.....and Chafee serves no purpose towards that end.

Ultimately saving Chafee in his 54-46 victory were independent voters who crossed over to vote in the GOP primary because they like Chafee. My concern is that these same independent voters, most of whom despise Bush if polling data from sapphire-blue Rhode Island can be believed, will disproportionately vote for Chafee again in November, dronishly and inadvertantly installing Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader. The only good news for Democrats in Rhode Island is that they swamped the GOP in turnout even though there were no hotly-contested races. In fact, Whitehouse got more votes than both Laffey and Chafee combined. That's an optimistic sign that there may be enough Rhode Islanders who see the big picture to vote for a real Democrat in November rather than the faux-Democrat Chafee.

In more primary news, controversy-plagued Keith Ellison was victorious in a hotly-contested three-way battle for the open MN-05 Congressional seat in Minneapolis. This guy makes me nervous at a number of levels. Aside for his past ties to Louis Farrakahn and his refusal to follow the laws that he passes (unpaid taxes, unpaid parking tickets, tardy submission of election application forms), he just doesn't strike me as a likable guy. A controversial politician at least has to be likable to be successful, but anybody except the hard-core DFL ideologues will be unlikely to take to the abrasive and scowly Ellison. Hopefully, the guy pleasantly surprises me and his constituents. Given that his district is 72% Democratic, there's no doubt he'll be elected in the fall against GOP challenger Alan Fine, but if Fine is pulling in 38-40% of the vote in MN-05 because Golden Valley soccer moms have too many concerns about his ethics issues to vote for him, it'll be a potential millstone around the necks of other DFL candidates running statewide, particularly Klobuchar and Hatch.

Like Rhode Island, turnout among Democrats was robust in Minnesota, even without any top-tier or even second-tier races on the itinerary (only Becky Lourey's true believers took her challenge to Mike Hatch in the gubernatorial race seriously). The DFL swamped Republican turnout statewide by a nearly 2-1 margin in Minnesota, with Klobuchar besting Kennedy in Wright County (his home county) and Hatch beating Pawlenty in Dakota County (Pawlenty's stomping grounds). These figures are unlikely to hold in November, but gives a decent indication of how demoralized and disengaged Minnesota Republicans are this election cycle.

The Dems are very cocky about their prospects in AZ-08 with the victory of hard-right talk show host Randy Graf, whose main issue is illegal immigration, over party-supported moderate Steve Huffman. Most Democratic pundits and media analysts now lean this race to photogenic Democratic candidate Gabrielle Giffords. I'm not convined. Immigration is the top concern of Arizona residents, and their allegiance is much closer to Graf than that of the McCain-Kennedy bill. If Graf comes across like a civilized guy with an articulate anti-immigration position, I expect he'll win. The Dems thought they were scare Oklahomans by caricuratizing extreme-right 2004 Senate candidate Tom Coburn as a foaming-at-the-mouth nutball, but when Coburn actually talked to people and came across as a normal guy, traditional partisan allegiances helped drag Coburn come from behind to score a double-digit victory over Democratic challenger Brad Carson come election night. Considering that AZ-08 still leans ever-so-slightly to the GOP, I'm expecting a similar scenario could play out with Graf this year considering his key issue aligns with that of southern Arizonans.

Overall, the night wasn't as horrific as it could have been. Ben Cardin beat Kweisi Mfume by a solid eight-point margin in the Maryland Senate race, keeping the Democratic advantage against Michael Steele in that contest, but probably creating an uncomfortable racial dynamic that presents a needle for Democrats to thread. Still, that Rhode Island contest was a heartbreaker. Watching those returns come in for Chafee last night, I felt the same sinking feeling in my gut that I felt on the nightmarish election nights of 2002 and 2004, and I fear there be may more disappointment where that came from this November. The Democrats need to OWN independent voters to take back either House of Congress. The fact that so many showed up to save Lincoln Chafee in a Republican primary tells me we're gonna fall short once again.

Mixed Election News This Week

Yesterday, coming as no surprise to me, came an Associated Press report indicating that new voter registrations among Latinos are not exactly rolling in by the trainload. http://www.nbc4.tv/politics/9786235/detail.html?rss=la&psp=news

Last spring, in the midst of the sizeable urban rallies in favor of Senate-sponsored immigration reform, the media scared politicians into a frenzy over the prospect of an enraged Latino community taking their frustrations out on politicians who didn't approve the McCain-Kennedy reform bill advocating "amnesty" and "guest worker programs". The oft-cited mantra was "Today We March, Tomorrow We Vote". Anyone who tracks exit poll data and regional voter patterns knew this was probably a hollow threat. Illegal immigrants can't vote.....nor can most recent legal immigrants. Voting rights only come in the wake of citizenship, which takes an average of more than a decade to attain.

The much-hyped emergence of an overwhelming Latino vote is one of the most overrated projected "trends" in American elections. Sure, their numbers will eventually grow to the point of electoral significance, but it will always lag far behind their percentage of the overall population due to citizenship requirements. Even with Latinos comprising 14% of the population in 2004, they only accounted for 8% of the voting population in the 2004 election. The numbers will get even more lopsided as the non-citizen Latino population outpaces the slow trickle of Latinos who qualify for citizenship. And Latinos that do vote will remain disproportionately middle class descendants of Hispanic Americans whose forefathers have been on American soil for generations, are indoctrinated into the conservative cowboy culture of the American Southwest, and who share the same fears of illegal immigration that white conservatives do. The meatpackers in Dakota City, Nebraska, and the field hands of Modesto, California, who don't vote today will continue not to vote a generation from now. And politicians who go against the will of the majority of the 92% of the electorate that is not Latino will be punished for it at the polls.

As for the good news, take a look at this set of independent House race polls released today by RT Strategies/Constituent Dynamics. http://www.swingstateproject.com/2006/09/junkie_heaven.php#comments

I've heard conflicting reports on the accuracy these polls should be afforded, but they tend to be in line with several of the other internal and independent polls released for some of these races, so I'm inclined to take them seriously. Sure, there are a few trouble spots, including surpisingly strong showing for GOP incumbents like Clay Shaw (FL-22), Chris Shays (CT-04), and Mike Fitzpatrick (PA-08) who were thought to be among the most vulnerable Republican incumbents. On the other hand, some races that weren't even considered top-tier contests just six months ago have Democrats in the lead, including Phil Kellam (VA-02) and Chris Carney (PA-10), with other Democratic challengers doing as good or better than conventional wisdom expected, like Tammy Duckworth (IL-06), Heath Shuler (NC-11), Bruce Braley (IA-01), and Charlie Wilson (IA-06). I think I can speak for most Democrats when I say that I'd be more than happy to see these poll numbers come to fruition on November 7. Let's hope they hold.

Republicans Don't Really Believe They're Gonna Lose Congress

The bullshit is getting deep in the GOP strategist swamp these days....even deeper than usual. The primary advocates of boosting Democrats' prognoses for victory in the House appear to be Republican strategists. Proving that point, Sunday's "Washington Post" column by Dan Balz and David Broder featured two GOP strategists stating "on condition of anonymity" that Dems have, respectively, 75% and 90% chances of winning back the House in November.

Republican strategists don't really believe they only have a one-in-ten chance of retaining the House. They're spinning a web in which the media, hungry for a story, artificially inflates Democrats' expectations, triggering overconfidence among Democratic voters, fear among Republican voters, and a sense of inevitability among independents. If it becomes a base election where the Democrats are cocky, the Republicans are scared, the independents are blase and disengaged, and the media are clueless pawns overselling Democratic prospects, the GOP's superior GOTV operation (and let's be honest, their larger base) will swamp the Dems just as it did in 2002 and 2004.

So far, the strategy is playing out just as the GOP hopes, with lofty CW expectations of sweeping Democratic victories that are not supported by race-by-race polling. As the media becomes more confident of seismic Democratic momentum, I become less confident of it.

My Labor Day Request for Conservatives

Once again this year, I'll challenge my labor-hating Republican friends to protest Labor Day by volunteering at least 12 hours at their workplace today. By playing along with those nasty unions and spending the first Monday in September in unproductive leisure rather than making money for their bosses, conservative ideologues are undermining their own suggested goals. I'm confident that those proclaiming unions to be "no longer necessary" rise to the challenge every Labor Day from here on out and rebuke this scourge on productivity by planting their asses at their work station bright and early Labor Day morning and staying well into the evening without overtime benefits. I'm counting on them to set an example for all of us.....and I'm sure they won't let us down.